The Syndicate

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:07 pm I think Epi is town? But really he's a hard read for me, I will say he's more involved than I normally associate w/ his scum game, ergo town for now

falcon said Epi's name on numerous occasions, but he didn't really take any kind of stance until this one. And it's a wet fart.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:25 pm Having any reasonable reason to believe someone is Town is enough to put them out of the running at this point of course.

Tony being the most alert to the rules and the Shingen everything disqualifies him from being eliminated ever, due to the blunderkill.

We have all agreed sig = Town from the get-go, and I will admit it was about "I'm not cliché voting sig out early" for me back then. Is there something crucial about him that sets him apart, like Tony?

He doesn't have the mechanical edge that Tony has, no. I just think his posts look markedly more civilian-like than anyone else's posts. I acknowledge that's a weaker case for him.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:32 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:00 am
And so, since you are neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth

Straight from the book of Revelation. Love it.

This is the only thing Epignosis has done with falcon in the entire game. There's your pair. Good game.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:22 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:20 pm If Tony is mafia, I lose.
If sig is mafia, I lose.

Four others with 2-3 mafia in them. Epignosis, Long Con, LoRab, falcon45ca

I'll revisit the association dynamics in this smaller set and see what is most viable. And then sig will vote me out with his pecs glistening, and the game will end.
Ok, if we need anchors, I'm fine with sig and Tony. And you. And include me, dude I am Town.

I just might.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:19 pm 7 players, yeet a Wolf, 4-2. kill 2 Town, 2-2 parity. Three wolves, it's done now.

You're right. Thank you. Nap needed.

If Tony is mafia, I lose.
If sig is mafia, I lose.

Four others with 2-3 mafia in them. Epignosis, Long Con, LoRab, falcon45ca

I'll revisit the association dynamics in this smaller set and see what is most viable. And then sig will vote me out with his pecs glistening, and the game will end.

I think it can still be three? Just a 4v3 final elimination phase.

I'm extremely tired at work; I might be dumb.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:15 pm Seven players, homie. Two mafia guaranteed.

Oh. Nevermind I counted motobot among the mentions.

Cool beans.

I'm sure this will be another wonderful fun day phase of Mafia. I can't wait.

8 players alive

The game can end today. That requires a mafia team of 3.

6v2 --> miss --> 5v2 --> two kills --> 3v2, game alive
5v3 --> miss --> game over regardless of double kill

Good luck and godspeed. What a ballgame.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:56 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:55 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:54 pm I don't mind if Simon goes. Boy ignored my question twice. Very simple to answer.
True. Forgot that bit.

[VOTE: Simon] aubergine
Did you?

Yep. I looked at Simon's posts earlier, and didn't see the responses he didn't provide.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:55 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:54 pm I would hope.
If not, we can have a jolly LOL together as the Town goes down.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:54 pm I don't mind if Simon goes. Boy ignored my question twice. Very simple to answer.

True. Forgot that bit.

[VOTE: Simon] aubergine

I would hope.

My feelings about a Simon elimination - "sure"
My feelings about a LoRab elimination - "sure"
My feelings about a falcon45ca elimination - "eh"
My feelings about a JaggedJimmyJay elimination - "lol whatever"

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:46 pm [VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Washed my ass.

(That's funny you see)

All due respect, but I think it may be both of us.

No elimination - bad
Mafia choose - bad
First to the tie - null
Double elimination - awesome, but basically never happens anymore
Tiebreaker town role - no reason to believe it exists

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:42 pm Maybe no one will die.

Possibilities like that are why I won't let it end it a tie if I can help it. Most typical alternatives to randomization are bad for town.

Wouldn’t it be nice if a tie killed both players?

Probably not. Poo.

I said it twice, so now you're definitely going to remember.

The poll deadline isn't activated, but I think we have 35 minutes left in the day. I'm about to go home, but I'll be here with some time to spare. Remember that ties are not randomized. We don't know what happens.

The poll deadline isn't activated, but I think we have 35 minutes left in the day. I'm about to go home, but I'll be here with some time to spare. Remember that ties are not randomized. We don't know what happens.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:16 pm Washed? In what context?

Washed up. Has-been. Should-be-retired. MJ with the Washington Wizards.

This is the most useless I have been as a civilian in about a decade. Sorry everyone.

You ever wake up and realize you're washed?

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:02 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:53 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:48 pm Why did you have to move off Simon?
See the gif above.

I am just shaky about voting alongside falcon and LoRab and where's another wagon on someone in my POE pool featuring two people I have an easier time trusting. I'm open to the Simon option. I might swap again. I dunno.

I said before that every vote feels like guessing in this game, and that is still true.
Lorab is the only "safe" vote you're willing to vote at this time, as she voted for AS.

I wasn't really thinking of my vote in terms of the Abigail Sophia voters, but I suppose it's true that she's the standout name in that wagon.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:48 pm Why did you have to move off Simon?

See the gif above.

I am just shaky about voting alongside falcon and LoRab and where's another wagon on someone in my POE pool featuring two people I have an easier time trusting. I'm open to the Simon option. I might swap again. I dunno.

I said before that every vote feels like guessing in this game, and that is still true.

meant to be [VOTE: LoRab] aubergine

LoRab

Trust the other voters more

sig is probably my top town read overall now. I'm dropping him from Wilgykillgate.

motobot is still a town read, but I can't drop him from that group. Tony is a not mafia read. Epi is mostly a town read. falcon might be coming around to a town read? Uh.

Long Con has behaved in a town manner for the most part. Perhaps falcon's go-with-the-flow accusation of me could also apply to him, so I'll mull. But meh.

Leaves LoRab and Simon.

falcon's reads list, at my request, seemed decent. It makes sense for him to have those reads from his position in a semi-POE pool (e.g., doubts about motobot that nobody else expressed).

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:31 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:52 pm
sig wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:08 pm I’m not sure if I like how closely aligned my ideas are with falcon or not this game
I feel tied up in a double-not when I read this.
you’re the problem voter here

What does this mean?

Sure.

Simon had that one post I liked, but it isn't that hard to reframe him as "not really making reads". Even that post about me was largely a set of questions and speculations and really an assessment of me. He also cleanly fits into the "would kill DrWilgy" group.

[VOTE: Simon] aubergine

@falcon45ca check out this flavor-of-the-thread move.

(My own reads have been crap, so I fine following others)

Hey gang. Getting murdered at work. Are we going with Simon? I can be sold on that. Let me take a look.

@falcon45ca please me a single read other than “Jay is mafia”.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:34 pm I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

This is what I'm talking about when I say you're milquetoast & the flavour of whomever is sitting at the table

I'm trying not to tunnel out of stubbornness as I have a habit of that, but this just reinforces my read on you

My vote has been on either you or LoRab all day. I don’t care.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:46 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:34 pm I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

This is what I'm talking about when I say you're milquetoast & the flavour of whomever is sitting at the table

My vote has been on either you or LoRab all day.

I don’t care.

I'm trying not to tunnel out of stubbornness as I have a habit of that, but this just reinforces my read on you

I may not vote falcon in the end for reasons, but it’s frustratingly inconclusive.

I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

@TonyStarkPrime, your best guess at a team of two or three?

A lot of the candidates are more or less indiscriminable, and it makes every vote feel like a guess.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:01 pm While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

What did you have in mind when you posted this?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:04 am I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.

To be clear: most people won't.

In this particular case, there is a core mechanic at work. Some people would miss it. I think some people would not. Tony would not. I know that I would not, but folks can take that or leave it.

I suspect you wouldn't miss it if you were mafia and had proper incentive to read and absorb all that stuff. But I don't have the same degree of confidence.

Clarification:

I don't think it's "terribly balanced" is bad wording. It is poorly balanced.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:18 am 13 players.

Three mafia is 10-3 ordinarily, which is not balanced and I think you know that.

You are buying that Tony is indie, which makes it 9-3-1.

I feel like YOU aren't thinking things through.

You could have even made a mistake as a killer. Right?

10-3 games are very ordinary. I don't think it's terribly balanced either, but it's much more commonplace than 11-2 would be. (or 9-3-1 is more common than 10-2-1)

I have no idea what leetic views as balanced. I am also very much not saying anything about Tony's claim.

I've love some standalone reads on falcon, LoRab, and Simon without regard for theory relating to Wilgy's death. If anyone could pop open those posts and say "this is suspicious" or "this is a civilian", that'd go a long way. I only barely care about my own behavioral judgments in this environment. This is not the kind of game I solve effectively.

True.

I'm fine with treating the day as a last resort even if it isn't.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:12 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:08 am If I had to guess a team of three right this instant...

falcon, LoRab, Simon
Why a team of three?

Seems a safer assumption than a team of two, but two is possible.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:08 am Sell me on LoRab.

Confidence only moderate if that, but the bare bones:

- Fits the profile of someone that may make the Wilgy kill despite the mechanical problems
- Accepted my theory (and my civilianhood) without a moment's hesitation and voted falcon. I'm not sure that was a natural decision.

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