The Syndicate

Y'all can act like this is some hokey attempt at manipulation or you can do basic math.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

I also don't plan on following through on your idea. I just wanted to see your reaction.

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

Another question:

You think the SK is alive, and you think I'm bad.

You're willfully making a vote that within your logical framework would lose the game for the civilians. What?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

What do you think happened with the SK kill then?

Well if y'all lynch me I hope the SK is alive. That'd be the civs' only chance.

It was implied that this game wouldn't make it to Christmas. I think this is LyLo regardless of the alignment ratios. So:

A SK lynch loses the game if it's 2-1-1.

A mafia lynch loses the game if it's 2-1-1 and wins the game if it's 3-1.

A civilian lynch loses the game if it's 3-1 and can win the game if it's 2-1-1.

Ricochet wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

This guy

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

If the SK is still alive, it sounds reasonable (and exactly like the scenario we ran into in the live game last night).

Yes that's where the thought stems from. I actually thought in that game the civs were dead and didn't consider the baddie-on-baddie violence that could win them the game.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

That's a good look for you MM, to immediately react with a self-vote.

If the SK is alive, I think this game is a kingmaker scenario unless the civs can stop a kill. In fact, if it's 2-1-1 with no kill prevention, the only avenue left for a civilian win might be a civilian lynch. I know that's bizarre, so please listen to what I'm saying.

2-1-1. Lynch the SK. Mafia night kills. 1-1, civs lose.

2-1-1. Lynch mafia. The SK night kills. 1-1, civs lose.

2-1-1. Lynch civilian. The SK and mafia hopefully night kill each other. 1 civ alive, civs win.

One alternative is if the treble voter is still alive. That could make 1-1 viable.

If it's 3-1, it's still LyLo but the lynch must be Mladic.

Actually Marmot you might be right. I'd been reading the role for its 50% inconclusivity clause and didn't even register that it also functions purely as a role check.

That's also good for Epi if so.

One thing that occurs to me now is that Quin/LoRab could have been 9-15-00 while Epi/Boomslang could be M=R. I'm not sure there's a reason to assume one or the other.

I don't see a mechanism in the M=R roles that could allow Quin/LoRab to know with certainty that Epi is town. I do however think the Golden post MM highlighted represented a role hint associating him with Gasoline/Sunshine. Since every BTSC-esque interaction I found other than Epi/Boomslang included Golden, that leaves Epi/Boomslang as the only good option for the last BTSC team that I can see.

I don't think Wilgy is the SK because BWT was MIA too long to miss no kills. If the SK is alive it's MM. Either way I think Wilgy is the last mafia. MM's hunting/solving efforts especially this phase look like they come from an uninformed place, either civilian or SK.

Epignosis wrote:Question for 3J: Who wouldn't kill me in this scenario? Why does this qualm uniquely pertain to you?

In the prior nights you made posts like these:

"I don't believe you're a civilian, Jay. I don't."

"I'll donate to the charity of Jay's choice if he turns out to be a civilian."

"Thanks G-Man for keeping this fiend around."

Et cetera

Any baddie among the other two can be confident entering this phase with you and I alive that your vote won't be landing on them. Then Wilgy especially can count on having been a point of minimal focus from you (with BWT) throughout the game.

M=F's role check doesn't work in a way that allows for a conclusive clearance of a living player.

Gonna be gone all day. Phone check-ins are possible. I'll be hanging out with numerous other participants in this game; that'll be bizarre.

Dom's posts

Review his most recent content and then tell me I'm his teammate.

Then ask yourself whether it makes sense in any universe for me to kill sig and leave myself in a LyLo with the three of you.

Poiint: the only badfie we know for sure is still alive is Mladic. I think I can be eliminated from contention for that role based on how Dom treated me before his death and also on the sig kill.

Please do.

DrWilgy wrote:It let's me foresee cause and effect. If I can predict the effect before EOD it'll get me in the mindset where I can see entire plays.

Y'know those suspicions I can never explain? That's what those are. Me trying to read plays as a whole.

I see you as mafia baddie or SK. Based on current interactions I don't believe Epi to be bad.

Marmot would be the other unknown baddie.

Please tell me how you arrived at all three of those reads.

DrWilgy wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:In the situation where Marmot is a lone baddie after this day cycle. He wouldn't submit a kill, this would prevent a 1v1 end game coin flip. It'd probably end up 2v1 in Marmots favor.

I understand that mindset in a world where the 1v1 is a coin flip. It usually wouldn't be; indeed the game would end in any scenario where there aren't extra votes in play. Why do you assign this mindset specifically to Marmot?

I didn't tho. Epi wouLd probably be the same, but I think he would vote to kill Marmot instead of me.

When you project these future circumstances as you are, what is the purpose of that? What insight does it provide you about everyone else?

What is your read on me?

DrWilgy wrote:In the situation where Marmot is a lone baddie after this day cycle. He wouldn't submit a kill, this would prevent a 1v1 end game coin flip. It'd probably end up 2v1 in Marmots favor.

I understand that mindset in a world where the 1v1 is a coin flip. It usually wouldn't be; indeed the game would end in any scenario where there aren't extra votes in play. Why do you assign this mindset specifically to Marmot?

DrWilgy wrote:If it's Marmot, and JJJ gets lynched at this point, I doubt he would take the kill. He would wager on Epi voting for me with him.

I don't follow this point. Please expand.

I've been left for dead in this damned game for about four cycles now and I have still tried my best to remain as productive a contributor as I can be. At least listen to what I have to say, y'all.

DrWilgy wrote:Counter question. What would prompt you to kill Sig instead of Epi?

That would be nonsense for me. Epignosis is more likely to vote for me than sig would have been, and sig is an easier lynch than Epi ever would be.

Epignosis: I'm left agreeing with MM's perspective of you after reviewing all the other combinations and isolating Golden as a likely Gasoline/Sunshine role. So I need you to listen to me. The civilian faction will lose the game if I am lynched whether you believe me or not.

Ask yourself one core question, please:

Why do I as a killing role stroll into a final phase with you alive, knowing full well that you've wanted me dead for much of the game? Why also do I decide to turn the crosshairs against you, the most difficult lynch on the board, unless it's what I really believe in?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:That quote I pulled. Trice suggested that Sunshine+Gasoline would be simultaneously targeted with the insanification curse. Golden was cursed, but responded with his usual "No" answer. I conclude that he was saying "No, targetting one will not affect both of them".

I see what you mean. Given that Golden occupies all of my BTSC combinations other than Epi/Boomslang, your point is one I'll have to concede. That definitely looks like Golden hinting at being a part of that duo.

Which leaves Epi and Boomslang as a viable BTSC.

You seem civilian at face value right now given your effort to resolve roles and at least listen to what I'm saying, so I guess that leaves Wilgy.

Epignosis wrote:Did 3J ever ask what the timmer factor was? That's a question I'd expect him to ask.

I'm looking at a thousand things at once right now and trying to keep current with the dialogue too. So I'll ask: what does the timmer factor refer to?

I've reviewed every possible BTSC combination of dead players with unrevealed roles (not including Vompatti, Dom, Quin, and LoRab) and living players. I think these are all compatible with a BTSC scenario:

BWT/Wilgy : Golden
Boomslang : Epignosis
Golden : Niju
Golden : timmer

I think Golden : Niju is the most compelling of the four. Golden never left any room for doubt about his read on her while also not making it explicitly obvious that they're a team. She didn't have enough material for his read to be generated without the help of information, and still his read on her was confident from the start. He defended her immediately when suspicion was cast upon her including from me.

Epignosis wrote:I have no reason to guess. I have determined you aren't a civilian, and that's good enough for me today.

How can anyone trust this guy?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Nah, I think it's possible.

Golden wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

triceratopzeuhl wrote:What if, e.g., Sunshine + Gasoline's secret is that night powers targeting one will affect both of them?

Or if something in Mladic role (I believe he is probably the mafia insanifier) says "if you target one of a btsc pair it affects both of them" or something along those lines?

Possible.

I will let you down

What does that have to do with them identifying each other? Do you deny that the dynamic of their role makes no sense if they're allowed to do that?

To make this clear to everyone:

Epignosis has made it clear he believes the serial killer is alive. We also know Mladic is alive.

He has refused to guess at who to assign to each role. He has instead given me snarky retorts and ignored the importance of the issue.

Epignosis wrote:You use the word "literally" a lot when you're bad.

You should work on that.

You evade important questions a lot when you're bad. Visibly more than you do when you're town. You should work on that.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oh, and you cursed me, you killed my bride, you tried to lynch me three times, and you're willing to believe that Epignosis is more likely to be a mafioso than a simple civilian with BTSC.

Your current assignment is to look at the Golden/Niju interaction. Get busy.

Excellent! That accounts for the other round of civilian "BTSC" (Sunshine + Gasoline). Good eye Jay.

That's not BTSC. They don't know each other's ID and communicate through the host.

If I could communicate to another civilian through the host, I would tell them who I am and ask them not to lynch me (among other things).

It presumably amounts to BTSC.

That defeats the purpose of the role and is almost definitely not alllowed.

Rico: can you clarify on whether Sunshine and Gasoline were allowed to identify one another by name?

DrWilgy wrote:JJJ, if you had to vote to save yourself right now who would you vote?

Epignosis.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oh, and you cursed me, you killed my bride, you tried to lynch me three times, and you're willing to believe that Epignosis is more likely to be a mafioso than a simple civilian with BTSC.

Your current assignment is to look at the Golden/Niju interaction. Get busy.

Excellent! That accounts for the other round of civilian "BTSC" (Sunshine + Gasoline). Good eye Jay.

That's not BTSC. They don't know each other's ID and communicate through the host.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Epignosis wrote:No, I'm acting like I'm voting you after considering the other choices.

That's how "Process of Elimination" works, right?

You you aren't. What a load of shit.

Also you still haven't told me who the SK and Mladic are. Because you don't care about answering the most important question in the game.

Haven't you been paying attention?

I've been figuring out who is NOT them.

No, you literally haven't been doing that.

You disqualified everyone except me in a world you claim still has two non-civilians.

Epignosis wrote:No, I'm acting like I'm voting you after considering the other choices.

That's how "Process of Elimination" works, right?

You you aren't. What a load of shit.

Also you still haven't told me who the SK and Mladic are. Because you don't care about answering the most important question in the game.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oh, and you cursed me, you killed my bride, you tried to lynch me three times, and you're willing to believe that Epignosis is more likely to be a mafioso than a simple civilian with BTSC.

Your current assignment is to look at the Golden/Niju interaction. Get busy.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Trice and I tied for a lynch, but one survived (and trice's role implied it wasn't him).

You survived a lynch.

Game mechanics, balancing shit, and all that jazz suggest that one is a good lynch-survival and one is an evil lynch-survival.

Coincidentally, I came to the conclusion you are an evil marmot-slayer many days ago.

Then your reason for suspicion is exactly the same as mine. And yet I am still here working out other possibilities because Mafia is not that simple -- especially not around here. If you're civilian then you'd better do the same or the game is over.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Epignosis wrote:And for all of this, you have my vote.

I had your vote last night. You don't care.

You had no one's vote last time.

What don't I care about?

According to you, I'm the last mafia. I SHOULDN'T have to care, so why does that bother you?

I said last night. You're acting like you just decided to vote for me after considering the details and that's a joke. Your point is also nonsense. You don't care because you have no real motive to judge my alignment.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Clearly.

I'll try this another way.

Consider two lynch survivals, regardless of who. Consider the mindsets of those players and the possible reasons for their survivals.

Then consider game balance and how people might feel about what they observe.

Done!

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

Okay. Why?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Clearly.

I'll try this another way.

Consider two lynch survivals, regardless of who. Consider the mindsets of those players and the possible reasons for their survivals.

Then consider game balance and how people might feel about what they observe.

Epignosis wrote:And for all of this, you have my vote.

I had your vote last night. You don't care.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:You would be concerned if you are a civilian that the lynch-save is malicious.

You are trying to direct my head to the right place...

So I should be concerned that your lynch-save is malicious?

I don't think you're understanding me.

There are so many possible BTSC combinations to look at and it's taking forever.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I don't know why I wasn't lynched, nor even if I was the one who was supposed to die.

You implied some knowledge of the events around your lynch.

So, nope, I got nothing except oodles of wariness.

You're right that it isn't fully affirmed that you were the one saved in that lynch. I'm not going to role hint. All I can do is try to direct your head to the right place.

Ask yourself why I might be inordinately concerned when someone else survives a lynch?