The Syndicate

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:52 pm That’s because my teammates are other civs who have no other information and are lost.

Could you describe what it is about me that you find trustworthy?

Perhaps it's meaningful that falcon is the only player who has suspected me and never reconsidered.

Unless both players in the tie are mafia, in which case the game is locked down. But that's a pipe dream.

Reminder that a tie won't cut it -- mafia control them. It shouldn't happen with 7 players, but yanno.

It may be a good idea for me to do the same just to align my turbulent thoughts, but only briefly. There is little time left, and Easter may force our hand. We know Epignosis is celebrating that too.

Long Con bussing LoRab is a possibility. It just doesn't strike me as necessary on his part. Perhaps, since he wanted falcon first and was diverted by Tony's "no". It still feels kind of wrong to me.

If LoRab is mafia, I am struggling to find a good teammate right now. I don't think Epi makes sense unless he abandoned his old aversion to bussing. He can win the game today if he wants to, so pursuing his teammate would be goofy.

Long Con is theoretically plausible, but he is also the origin of the LoRab wagon today more than anyone else. So eh.

falcon is theoretically plausible, but only if we accept significant distancing earlier in the game (especially with LoRab's indignant reception of his accusations).

If Epi is mafia then falcon is probably still the most viable teammate. His votes have been uninvested, and that's as true as ever right now.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:30 pm
LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:25 pm You’re either wrong or you re lying. Either way, I’m civ.

Please, show me a game where players on this forum didn’t suspect me for that. Because, that is not alignment indicative. And I just clarified my thoughts on Indy views.

Meanwhile, since I have nothing to lose now,. And in case there’s some weird thing and my lynch doesn’t end the game with the bad guys winning,I’ll share that you have become way more suspicious this round. You’re close in line for rising from orange to red. Evidence includes your clearly not really paying attention to details of the game.

And your apparent glee at the wagon against me.
This may be an important thing. LoRab, when accused, has fully opened the POE pool (in a sense) by including sig as a suspect, and that has progressed. I don't actually think that is a suspicious thing for her to do in isolation. Indeed, that's kind of what I would expect from a civilian in her position. She would have a uniquely insightful view of the game by way of knowing LoRab isn't it. That tends to require considering more radical possibilities.

I contrast this with Epignosis, who found another player in as much danger as he was to accuse (LoRab herself) and went for the self-proclaimed "slam dunk". That's easier to describe as an agenda.

@Long Con @TonyStarkPrime any thoughts about this rationale?

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:34 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:30 pm
LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:25 pm You’re either wrong or you re lying. Either way, I’m civ.

Please, show me a game where players on this forum didn’t suspect me for that. Because, that is not alignment indicative. And I just clarified my thoughts on Indy views.

Meanwhile, since I have nothing to lose now,. And in case there’s some weird thing and my lynch doesn’t end the game with the bad guys winning,I’ll share that you have become way more suspicious this round. You’re close in line for rising from orange to red. Evidence includes your clearly not really paying attention to details of the game.

And your apparent glee at the wagon against me.
This may be an important thing. LoRab, when accused, has fully opened the POE pool (in a sense) by including sig as a suspect, and that has progressed. I don't actually think that is a suspicious thing for her to do in isolation. Indeed, that's kind of what I would expect from a civilian in her position. She would have a uniquely insightful view of the game by way of knowing LoRab isn't it. That tends to require considering more radical possibilities.

I contrast this with Epignosis, who found another player in as much danger as he was to accuse (LoRab herself) and went for the self-proclaimed "slam dunk". That's easier to describe as an agenda.
If you had to pick between the two do you still find Epi worse?

Personally I think expanding the POE at this phase just makes it more confusing, adds more unknown, and just further increases the chance we misvote. But, I’m a bit bias regarding that

Yes, I do.

I have seen many civilians under heavy pressure do what LoRab is doing, be accused of expanding the POE, and die for it. It's easy for us to forget that a civilian in her position has very little choice (and additional reason to believe in it). Frankly if she didn't suspect you at least a little bit I think that would be a bigger problem.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:17 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:22 pm @falcon45ca I can’t get Epi to talk about you, so he’s either teamed with you or trying to make it look that way. If it’s the latter, only you can drive the wedge.
All right. This is a civilian JJJ. Final answer.

I also find this kind of hard to believe.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:39 am I think Lorab is indeed mafia. The more I think on the Simon (lack of) exchange, the more I think that's a slam dunk.

Does anyone here feel like anything is a slam dunk?

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:29 pmIt all makes sense to me.

Basically, tsp is not my lynch priority. We don’t have luxury to lynch anyone who isn’t mafia. He’s not the priority. And so he’s on the back burner. Not trusting him doesn’t mean wanting to lynch him right now. We need to get a baddie. I don’t think he is a baddie, within the game set up.

Thanks, and I kind of answered my own confusion after I posted that. I understand what you mean.

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:25 pm You’re either wrong or you re lying. Either way, I’m civ.

Please, show me a game where players on this forum didn’t suspect me for that. Because, that is not alignment indicative. And I just clarified my thoughts on Indy views.

Meanwhile, since I have nothing to lose now,. And in case there’s some weird thing and my lynch doesn’t end the game with the bad guys winning,I’ll share that you have become way more suspicious this round. You’re close in line for rising from orange to red. Evidence includes your clearly not really paying attention to details of the game.

And your apparent glee at the wagon against me.

This may be an important thing. LoRab, when accused, has fully opened the POE pool (in a sense) by including sig as a suspect, and that has progressed. I don't actually think that is a suspicious thing for her to do in isolation. Indeed, that's kind of what I would expect from a civilian in her position. She would have a uniquely insightful view of the game by way of knowing LoRab isn't it. That tends to require considering more radical possibilities.

I contrast this with Epignosis, who found another player in as much danger as he was to accuse (LoRab herself) and went for the self-proclaimed "slam dunk". That's easier to describe as an agenda.

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:17 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:08 pm
sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:05 pmclaiming she believed TSP third party claim. This runs contradictory to her D1 view on independent thought so that’s a ping.
good point
It’s a different point in the game. I don’t trust him in the game, but we do not have the luxury of not focusing on mafia. Or focusing on not mafia.

Also, individuals over theory…theoretically I never trust neutrals or indies, regardless of alignment. This has been true consistently since I don’t remember when Hero’s Mafia was on LP, but that game.

That said, not trusting a player/roll and their being the lynch priority are not the same thing.

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 2:27 pm @LoRab if you had to choose just two suspects to be the mafia team, who would they be?
At this exact moment? Falcon and epi.

But I’m not locked into either of those thoughts.

LC and Sig are my next tier.

And I don’t think you are bad, other than in my most tinfoil-y moments.

And tsp’s Indy claim, I’m willing to assume is legit.

This is a bit difficult to reconcile.

Sorry gang. I should be less abrasive.

The game is driving me absolutely batshit, and it is bleeding into my playing personality. I will be kinder.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:05 pmclaiming she believed TSP third party claim. This runs contradictory to her D1 view on independent thought so that’s a ping.

good point

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:06 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:05 pm Don’t mess up wagons
wtf does this mean
I don’t wanna come back and see 4 votes on Long Con and 2 votes on me

Does it also mean you want the votes to remain on the current wagons?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:05 pm Don’t mess up wagons

wtf does this mean

Really I am just trying to violently shake this thread to force something insightful to happen.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 6:03 pm Making this post to find out when EOD is

We have just under four hours.

Is this going to be a "Tony is mafia" game

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:55 pm Jay what do you think of the LC posts I quoted?

I think they're in LC's range as either alignment. I can understand why you would find them suspicious, but I also think it entails some confirmation bias.

In the realm of pure gut, Long Con is probably the least suspect in the pile of candidates for me.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:51 pm I came to play with the time I have available, and I'm greeted by several pings of yours telling me I'm doing nothing

What are you doing on day 4 then?

I don't really give a crap if I look like LoRab's teammate.

We have to be right today or we lose. LoRab could be mafia. It's an easy argument to make. She was accused and said "no, not me". Mafia can say that. Civilians can too. It's irrelevant to me. I am forced to assess with pure gut, because the game offers no actual evidence. And my gut is not comfortable.

(or remember that it's Easter)

(but clearly you're here right now so screw that ATE)

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:49 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:44 pm @falcon45ca demonstrate that you care when you're not a wagon.

Oh for sure, just give me a sec to tell my kids to fuck off on Easter, cuz I've got to play Maf

(I didn't even know you have kids)

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:48 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:45 pm We've followed the easy path every day.

0 for 3.

LoRab is the easy path.

Then let's do something hard

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Yeah you don't care about who dies as long as it isn't your team. You're giving less than zero thought to any accusation you make. Falcon is a wolf.

I get a strong impression that falcon is just waiting out the day, which suggests to me that the current wagon is not flipping mafia. It's pulling me back to falcon/Epi, which was never really resolved. Even as Epi accepted falcon/LoRab as plausible, he went after LoRab and cooked up a "slam dunk" accusation.

We've followed the easy path every day.

0 for 3.

LoRab is the easy path.

@falcon45ca demonstrate that you care when you're not a wagon.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:21 pm I feel like these ISO are just making me more conflicted

Welcome to hell.

Tony being indy would also resolve some of the setup confusion.

10-2-1 and 9-3-1 were both iffy.

9-2-1-1 is more standard.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:13 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:34 am Four Epi-fam players and not one of them Wolf? Possible, but I don't believe in it.
Would a mafia LC do this if Epi was his teammate?

Dunno. It's the gambler's fallacy and is likely to be discarded by anyone.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:08 pm I’m comfortable cleaning TSP:

I think it’s clear he figured out who Moto was fairly quick and defended them in game. He could be third party, which would suck since he wouldn’t have a vested interest in town winning, but it’s too late to do anything about that

He's probably indy. I don't see how he's town at this point, not after holding that claim. If he's mafia that was a bizarre and unnecessary claim, but I guess it worked out.

I may have some doubt about the "can only win with town" portion of his claim, just because that'd make his role seem redundant with Kagemusha's. But if he's indy it doesn't matter much.

LoRab wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:08 pm What else do you want me to say?

And I can twirl, if it gives me more of a chance to live. And, I’d really like to lynch an actual baddie.

Can you point precisely to the behaviors of Epi and falcon that lead you to believe they're the most likely baddies?

Disregard, you answered.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:04 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:02 pm Then stop with the metronome trust level.
What's your take on LoRab's most recent material?
I saw nothing but "I'm not a wolf, I'm town." Nothing compelling enough to change my vote over.

@LoRab how do you plea?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:02 pm Then stop with the metronome trust level.

What's your take on LoRab's most recent material?

@falcon45ca please do something.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 3:28 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:32 pm I hope LC is town, because that is so wise.
I hope you wouldn't dare butter me up like that as a Wolf, especially after I stated my never-rescind Town read on you. I would not appreciate... the smugness of it.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:51 pm Could easily flip back. I don’t actually trust anyone outside sig/Tony.
Stop being intentionally mean, you trust me.

I'm also sick of this manipulative crap.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:55 pm Epi and Long Con have had an unusual relationship in this game.
How so

From Long Con's direction -- "town core" this and "town core" that. Initially, he included Epi in that group, and then he briefly joined the Epi suspicion today (before moving to LoRab). Epi lamented being "kicked out", and Long Con's reply was pure chum.

From Epi's direction -- he has hurled 90 accusations at me in this game, so it makes sense that he'd open today with me as a suspect. But he also has repeatedly glued me to Long Con, for reasons mostly unstated, and it could be an effort to wrongly tie me to his teammate. Either I flip town and LC looks better (or the game ends), or LC flips mafia and I look worse.

Epi and Long Con have had an unusual relationship in this game.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:36 pm Also one thing to note, which I wasn’t going to bring up this soon, but the convo is dead so I will, if we flip mafia today we need to ALSO hit mafia tomorrow phase or we loose.

So a bussing strategy isn’t out of the question, that adds an extra layer of toughness.

Certainly true.

You’re more confident than I am, sig. I may follow your lead today.

Put another way: this game has been characterized by players contributing to the discussion predominantly when they’re under pressure — when they have something to answer for. Other than that it’s emotional neutrality or absence. That applies strongly to LoRab and Epi. It applied to our previous misses. It applies less but still somewhat to falcon. It doesn’t quite apply to Long Con, and deciding what that means is basically guessing.

This is not a normal Mafia game.

I don’t know why anyone would be confident that anyone else in that group is town. If I understood maybe I wouldn’t find this experience so excruciating.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 4:21 pm @JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

It’s just uncertainty. I don’t know. There’s a pretty easy argument available to call every candidate in the [LoRab, Epi, falcon, LC] group mafia and to call them town. It is incredibly difficult for me to differentiate any of them and have any sustained confidence in it.

Even now I don’t think LoRab “looks” like mafia. She still easily could be. Once again I find myself more or less guessing.

sig being mafia would certainly explain why this game has been so miserable. I’d need someone to lay out a theory/case.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:58 pm Tony, fine, he's got good reasons. How exactly is sig townier than me at this point?

It’s more difficult to conceive of possible mafia agendas in his approach, and I have never questioned the authenticity. While you have had some strong moments too, it’s not quite the same.

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