The Syndicate

Looks good.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:niju and elements: what was with Jerk and Clucker never appearing?

You guys blocked her, which prevented element spawning.

Oh good then, that did matter.

I just realized that this game capped off a neat trifecta for me. I was in three games at once, two here and one on Bulbagarden. I had one town win, one independent win, and now one mafia win. I'll probably never manage that one again.

niju and elements: what was with Jerk and Clucker never appearing?

K4J was a roleblocker. He blocked Cheerleader and I killed you.

Also, apologies to sig for the way we treated you in this game. Silenced on Day 1 and killed on Night 1 is brutal. We felt like we had to do it because you'd gotten into BTSC with MP and squeezed a fake roleclaim out of him.

When you subbed in Mac, my immediate reaction was one of extreme displeasure.

When I'm bad, I tend to play to my audience -- everything I say and do is tailored to the people I'm playing with/against. I had not played a game that was well-suited to a surprise appearance by MacDougall, and I knew you'd give me trouble instantly. :P

DFaraday wrote:

DrumBeats wrote: Also, had Dfaraday already used his one-shot protection? Cause I think we could've won if not.

I had chosen to be safe for the next night phase, so it wouldn't have applied in the upcoming lynch anyway.

Good job, JJJ, for totally playing me for a fool. :P

Call it even, your baddies got me in Bullets Over Broadway.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'd like to know if anyone among llama, Mac, and Snapshot had information on me.

thellama73 was Henter Jallaford and targeted you first.

The other two did not.

I knew we were playing with fire keeping him alive so long.

I'd like to know if anyone among llama, Mac, and Snapshot had information on me.

nijuukyugou wrote:Y'all's BTSC must've been absolute panic at ALL times

See new quote.

Camerata chat

I'm glad people seemed to stop caring about anything the elements said toward the end, because I was very concerned that their hatred of me would clue people in that they were protecting niju.

nijuukyugou wrote:I (and the elements I had at the time) figured you were bad the moment you started trying to get people after me.

Yeah. When our kill attempt on you failed, I was shook. There was probably no more difficult lynch on the table than you, and to make matters worse, we had to find a way to generate it without making you look like the Process, because it was too late in the game to lynch the Process openly.

Epignosis wrote:Elements were anybody the Camerata Night killed. Hence, sig became the first element. These Night killed people lost their allegiance to Cloudwalk and won with The Process. In all but one case when an element was Night killed, they substituted back into new accounts. The only exception was Fetch, who was...Vompatti. My daughter Abigail was Cell. She's six.

Super neat. That's something I had never considered. Which one of you was Cheerleader?

Thanks for playing with us Simon and Abigail.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Also, thanks for a great game Epi. It was maddening, incredibly challenging, and always interesting. The Process forced us to work directly with the townies on multiple occasions, and that's a bizarre feeling that I don't think I've had in any other game.

And despite it being a complex and unique setup, I think you did a fantastic job balancing it. Every faction had a fair chance to win.

That's not what I heard in BTSC.

Yeah don't mind that -- that's frantic baddie JJJ talking at a thousand miles per hour working out every detail he can think of. When I can settle back and calm down, I can recognize that it was all fine. P

Also, thanks for a great game Epi. It was maddening, incredibly challenging, and always interesting. The Process forced us to work directly with the townies on multiple occasions, and that's a bizarre feeling that I don't think I've had in any other game.

And despite it being a complex and unique setup, I think you did a fantastic job balancing it. Every faction had a fair chance to win.

I look forward to hearing how those Process elements worked, and who was behind the socks.

Good game everyone, on all teams. Y'all made us sweat a great deal, even if it might not necessarily look like it.

nijuukyugou: thank you for making the last few phases such an excitement. I hope you don't take that wrong way, because I genuinely mean it. Sparring with you when I knew you were the Process when I'd be forced to turn a game-long town read around against you was incredibly difficult and your efforts made it doubly so. If a couple minor details in this game go another way I think you get the win. You did a great job.

Elohcin: Thanks again for being a great sport when we were forced to throw you under the bus early in the game. I really don't like to do that at all -- indeed most of my baddie games feature very little "bussing" from me. You handled it very well though, and your parting content made you difficult to associate with the rest of us. You earned this one.

MP: I think at one point, you had 57 posts and the 2nd highest post count behind you was 7. Seven. I know you encountered busy times, and that's alright man. Shit happens. While you were around you pumped mass content into this thread and made yourself very difficult to attack.

K4J: We went through hell together, my man. I mean this when I say it: you might be the best baddie team mate I've ever had. Period.

Oh thank God.

*spews nervous vomit all over the laptop*

DrumBeats wrote:Luna is definitely friendly, but I'm unsure if it's vote means anything. The fact that we haven't lost yet implies that between our two remaining civs and Luna with our votes/roles we can pull this off.

DFaraday, I think it is a bit obvious now that you are my civ buddy, and 3J and K4J are scumbuddies based on last phase. Nijuu probably role copped 3J with snapshot and was confident he was getting a baddie. Mafia likely shot Nijuu at some recent point and already deduced him to be process.

niju was quite sold on you being bad too, DB. Moreover your "desire" to lynch K4J first doesn't mean much when you expressed it after DF's niju vote and then placed the same vote yourself. Everything you've just accused me of applies as much to yourself.

All I know is that two of the three of you are Camerata and I wouldn't be surprised by any combination. I think the most likely is DB/K4J. I won't completely discount DF though -- he has been pretty willing to vote along with the group lately, and every recent lynch result has been neutral-to-positive for the Camerata faction.

The game isn't over seemingly, and if it remains that way entering a new day phase then conversation and discussion is just as vital as it ever was before -- even you, Luna (I am sure you can find some manner of mixing your barks, grrs, and pants into a meaningful post :P). To be honest there were probably some clues that niju was the Process that nobody recognized or at least admitted to recognizing -- primarily that the Process elements were trying to coalesce against me when she was threatened. I thought she was mafia and I may have been guilty of personal bias since she was railing for my lynch so hard.

If I am killed, I insist that the other townie shouldn't have his mind made up already entering the new day -- analyze all data at your disposal and give it the best shot you can. The suspect pool is tiny now and there's really nothing mechanical or powerful precluding anyone left from being bad.

I am voting for nijuukyugou.

nijuukyugou wrote:I did not dump a vote. I've said what I want to say. I've also had mostly phone access for the last couple of days due to traveling and sound moving shit, but that's irrelevant. JJJ is bad and has you all right where he wants you. Continue to vote me, and you'll see that for sure. Or perhaps you should rethink voting me, and vote him and see it for sure, too, but also have a chance at winning.

There's the rub. There's more to Mafia than "what you want to say". There's a necessity in this late-game scenario to have a conversation, or at least to try, because this is a difficult decision -- or it should be a difficult decision. By dropping your vote on me without acknowledging what I'd said about you, or without otherwise entertaining other options at all, you've largely forced the hands of people who don't boast the certainty you claim to have. And it's a good thing too, because the lynch you're promoting would have abysmal ramifications for the Cloudwalk faction.

DrumBeats wrote:Why would I wait until night 3-4 (can't remember which) to shoot the process if I were mafia?

If you're mafia, I'd assert that you probably wanted to kill elements earlier but were overruled by team mates or otherwise convinced to take different routes. Individual mindsets are less meaningful within the context of a team.

DrumBeats wrote:Also I would like to see a likelihood list like the three I just posted from everybody.

Civilian: DF > DB > K4J > niju
Mafia: niju > DB > K4J > DF
Process: K4J > niju > DF > DB

I think the primary factor in the thought process you're portraying that'd lead to a disagreement on K4J's Process candidacy would be that you think I'm the most likely Process. I know otherwise, and beyond that it's largely a matter of process of elimination. I think you could be the Process, but it'd require me to dive head first into a pool of WIFOM. DF seems like the best candidate to be a civilian, and niju seems like the best candidate to be mafia. Beyond that, I see K4J as Process-compatible and thus he falls into that slot.

Fetch wrote:JJJ, aren't you already confirmed Mafia? Why should I, as a civilian(?) Dog, vote for anyone but the Mafia?

You elements have become progressively more bizarre as the game has gone on.

No, I'm not "confirmed mafia", and you're not a "civilian". You're a Process element within the faction of the Process.

nijuukyugou wrote:Jimmy.

Good talk.

Everyone else, please engage the discussion before dumping a vote.

I'm going to try to strip the game down to its bare bones and just lay out the fundamental cases for every player.

DFaraday

The case for DF being Camerata:

I think the simplest case to draw up here would be that MP's treatment of him during and after the Zebra lynch was more distancing than scapegoating. It should be acknowledged that despite the harsh treatment, MP didn't quite push for his lynch on Day 2 even when Elohcin was drawing the most heat.

The case for DF being the Process:

He's had his periods of being rather blendy, and that sort of positioning in any game can be effective for an independent who doesn't want to make enemies either of the town or the mafia. It's difficult to motivate a lynch of someone like that without substantive evidence, and baddies tend to like to keep players like that around longer. The latter point is probably less applicable given that the Process is immune to night kills. He also had limited verbal interaction with the elements.

The case for DF being Cloudwalk:

MP did indeed make a scapegoat of him for his part in the Zebra lynch, trying to generate negative press on an easy target that failed to amount to much. His night phase voting record is arguably the most favorable, which is a decent indicator that he isn't the Process which most other players here cannot boast. His content also bears a low capacity for manipulation given its brevity, and I think he has appeared earnest.

I feel the most likely answer is Cloudwalk. I could tinfoil him as the Process.

DrumBeats

The case for DB being Camerata:

Perhaps the proposal he gave us on Day 1 was a bold maneuver by him to coordinate town and mafia from a mafia mindset, because I do think it has proven valid both for Cloudwalk and Camerata that the Process elements have needed to be dealt with by both opposing factions. This is tinfoil, more mafia-compatible than mafia-indicative. The worst thing to say about DB here is probably that his voting record is worse than the mean at face value -- he was the first voter during the MP lynch, did not contribute to the Elohcin lynch, and at a couple points voted off-wagons. His often Process-centric focus is also compatible with a mafia mindset, given that they need to eliminate the Process just as town does.

The case for DB being the Process:

It may be a full roll of tinfoil, but we'd be remiss to completely discount the notion that DB and the elements have been engaged in a cooperative distancing effort for much of the game. It has left him in a comfortably non-Process-seeming position at this point after all. It's still tinfoil though. I think the most troubling thing about DB on this front is that it was so difficult to get him to lynch an element yesterday when it was the most crucial to do so after he spent the whole game prior ranting about the need to remove them.

The case for DB being Cloudwalk:

MP's early rainbow is a bit of a WIFOMburger, featuring both Elohcin and DB as 2 of 3 town reads alongside only AATB/Scotty. This would be rather brazen team mate behavior. WIFOM can again be employed regarding his proposal, this time in the opposite direction -- implying it was an earnest attempt by DB to communicate the urgency of Process element elimination in such a way that even the baddies might listen to him. Really I think DB in this game is the encyclopedia entry for "wine in front of me", because most points for and against him inspire that manner of thinking.

I could really see him turning up any of the three; I think there's a valid case to be made for each of them -- even the Process. Following process of elimination I think the most likely answer is Camerata.

kneel4justice

The case for K4J being Camerata:

There is the appearance of some convenience in the progression of his read on MP before and approaching his eventual lynch, as first observed by DB. His voting record appears better at face value than one might expect from someone who joined the game late and had to get acquainted with it on the fly -- he contributed to the Elohcin lynch on Day 2 soon after coming aboard.

The case for K4J being the Process:

He has had limited verbal interaction with Process elements throughout the game. At one point Badcell threw shade his way, but it was never followed up or revisited. This manner of limited content with just a little distancing would fit the profile of what I'd expect to see in the Process's interactions with the elements. He also left the door open last day phase to avoid contributing to the lynch of Weed and only did so following DF's and DB's votes.

The case for K4J being Cloudwalk:

His voting record is sound because it's sound. This is a possibility that should be acknowledged. He's given a consistent effort since replacing in to the game that I at least think has appeared earnest, and he has shown some degree of investment in hunting and discerning the motives of others. At face value I think he looks okay.

I think the most compelling possibility for K4J is The Process and that he fits that profile better than the remaining candidates.

nijuukyugou

The case for niju being Camerata:

She has assembled a solid looking voting record and referenced it to support her own cause. The obvious baddie mindset to be assigned to this would be that her votes were deliberate and informed, and that she anticipated riding them to endgame. I believe her responses to accusations have not been inspired, and her primary interest has been deflection and redirection of suspicion more than an earnest desire to clear herself and find a proper alternative. I also think her behavior during the prior day phase is easier to explain with a Camerata alignment than either other option -- she was pointedly interested in lynching me and only me (no other player or element). The Process benefits from any player being lynched, but she focused squarely on me. Cloudwalk benefited from no player being lynched, and she ignored the logic presented about that notion. The Camerata agenda would be to lynch me because I am believed to be the Process, rightly or wrongly, and that lynching me would win her the game.

The case for niju being the Process:

She has had limited interaction with the elements and only showed interest in lynching them as a "tagalong" instead of being a proper purveyor of that strategy. Her behavior yesterday could also be called pro-Process if it is not associated with Camerata.

The case for niju being Cloudwalk:

Similar to K4J, she could be credited for her voting record instead of questioned for it. If she is a civilian, then I think that would have to mean that she simply is not paying attention to the numbers/ratios between the factions, and that her behavior yesterday was simply a mistake. I don't think the civilians ever benefit from following her lead on Day 11 for reasons I've already covered ad nauseum, so her being a civilian demands some degree of ignorance.

I think the most compelling case for niju is Camerata. This is the most confident read I have.

Tomorrow when I am rested I can give this game my full Mafia focus. I'm finally only in one game.

Before I go to sleep tonight, I'm going to address this large thing niju put up against me yesterday when I was trying to show everyone the wisdom and necessity of an element lynch:

nijuukyugou wrote:http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 07#p278007
In which MP says he "doesn't know what to think of JJJ just yet" and "understands that he's busy with games." Puts him on his wishy-washy yellow list.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 08#p279108
In which MP "looks at JJJ" to come up with ISOs/analyses of everyone while MP is away.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p281352
In which MP updates his rainbow list and puts JJJ in green for his interactive ISOs. Puts me in green, too, which is something that asshole does when he's bad to curry favor with me :P (You'll just have to take my word on that last point.)

Now, this is a nice visual, so I'll cut with the links:

*I've snipped the pile of quotes to shorten this post*

JJJ is always at the top of his reads lists, except at the beginning, when he "understood JJJ's busyness" and put practically everyone in yellow. He never suspects him, ever, for anything. Not even a light suspicion. No NO-U in sight. He suspects everyone at some point, even to a small extent (myself included, when he was trying to decide whether to vote me or Nero in the crazy lynch), but never JJJ. The WIFOM is, of course, huge here: why would someone so enthusiastically endorse a teammate throughout the entire game? Flawlessly, enthusiastically agree with everything JJJ says? One might think MP didn't think he would be lynched so early, due to suspicion against another one of his teammates, and could get away with it. But I also think MP would pull that sort of gambit, as I've said before. Both he and JJJ, just to say they did it in the end. It's too perfect. It's too buddy-buddy to ignore as "buddying."

Yellow: This is untrue. On Day 1 MP gave me flak on a few occasions, I think in an attempt to earn llama's favor and perhaps generate a more negative thread climate for me and inhibit my ability to play my game freely and loosely. Some examples you didn't include or acknowledge in your pile:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Consider my "vote" rescinded.

reywaS, come out to play!

There was a moment in the early goings of the scrimmage game in which you pressed another player and then quickly abandoned it. I remember it was something that Silverwolf picked up on [accurately] in that game. This example shows you establishing a pressure scenario for Boardwalk and then leaving it behind rather quickly -- I would assert this is represents a parallel. What pleased you about the content he provided?

Not only did he come in and post, which satisfied me mostly, he contributed to the discussion:

Spoiler: show

AllAlongTheBoardwalk wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Elohcin wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Elohcin wrote:I bet the process gets to choose which ability he uses and maybe after he uses an ability, it is revealed?

Seems sensible.

What thoughts do you have, Elo, any? You seemed to dislike DrumBeats's declaration of swapping votes. Why?

I don't think it productive at all. It's not any better than self voting. I believe he even said it would be a way of finding a loophole. I am tired of the self voters b/c I find it a lack of participation and even more so, a hindrance to one's team whether they are civ or mafia. And I told Epi (half way through the game I just hosted) that I wish I'd have made it a rule that you cannot self vote. He liked the idea

That's understandable; it's why I created the "no self voting" rule to begin with, and I'm glad to see it catch on.

Do you really think that viewpoint has any reflection of DrumBeats's alignment, however? What is the mafia motivation for him proposing that?

That's a good question. Personally, I don't see any 'good' motivation for suggesting vote trading than other than to skate through a few votes without making a real decision. So in that respect, it seems somewhat sinister to me. However, perhaps DB is just wanting to exploit loopholes because he/she can?

I liked this post because I wanted unique content from him, which he hadn't yet provided. He provided it posthaste, and then he was on the same level as everyone else who has provided content so far. So I dropped my pressure. That's it.

What I want to know is:

1) What did you think of AATB's content?
2) What makes you think that my pressure and swift abandoning is a mafia tell? You imply it based on your wording above, where you say Silverwolf [accurately] called me out for it in the scrimmage game. I think that's nonsense. This is something I do. Why do you think there is a mafia motivation to this behavior?

This is very much a "No U". I drew a parallel to MP's earliest voting behavior to what he did as a baddie in the champs scrimmage game, and in his response he asserted my reasoning was "nonsense" and tried to turn the line of interrogation back upon me.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't know what to think of JJJ just yet; I know he's busier right now and in three games so I'll try not to judge him harshly for lack of supatown, but it's inevitable to hold high expectations for him. I've found his light interrogation of me to be a bit peculiar, and I don't really understand where he's coming from at all this game. I'd like to engage with him about this game in real time because we have zero mindmeld going on right now and that's just not right.

You acknowledged the part where talks about me being busy, but you don't acknowledge the part where he is distinctly negative in his assessment of me. "I don't really understand where he's coming from at all this game" / "we have zero mindmeld going on right now" -- These are negative statements that defy the image you're painting of MP clapping me on the shoulder and supporting me all game long. Indeed, he didn't start to support me until after his attempts to throw shade at me on Day 1 failed to generate any truly negative thread climate. He had to change his approach to me, and that's because he wasn't getting away with his initial approach.

It is true that after Day 1, MP's treatment of me became significantly more cordial. I can't know exactly what he was trying to do, but if I were to guess: he wanted to get on my good side, especially while his ability to contribute to the game dropped significantly, and he wanted to rely on my reads to push town in an unfortunate direction. This is honestly how the game developed -- many of my early reads weren't accurate other than Elohcin, and I played an influential role in mislynches that frankly allowed the baddies to overcome the loss of Elohcin. Shit happens. I credit Scotty for being the primary person to inspire a harder look at MP later in the game, and I may not have boasted much confidence in the eventual MP lynch without investigating the nutella interaction that he first brought up. It's because of these faults in my reads that any baddie would be happy to not only keep me around, but also lend me public support and encourage me to be viewed as a leader-figure. I think MP was trying to do that.

nijuukyugou wrote:I've had time to think about this, and I can see why Mac and llama, who basically had no time, had so much trouble proving JJJ's baddiness. He's done a hell of a job covering his tracks. But if you consider nothing above, brush it off as crazy-Blooper theories, consider two things: why would two civs so enthusiastically, without abandon, without regard to how they looked in the thread, go after JJJ in such a manner? They knew something, and tried to get our attention the best way they could with their posts and multiple votes from nowhere (and it did get our attention, but in the opposite manner).

This is where your case veers away from the potential for fair consideration and into the realm of manipulation. llama and Mac both clearly suspected me, the former for essentially the entire game. Why would two civilians do that? Because they genuinely thought I was bad. There's no logical necessity for "information" to exist here, and it can't exist because it's impossible. First, I'll show you why it's a logical leap to assign information to their suspicions, and second I'll show you why I don't believe you to be sincere when you propose that theory.

1a. llama does this shit. He grips onto a suspicion and he pushes it for days and days as stubbornly as anyone I've seen in Mafia. This is why I didn't really even give him much crap for that behavior until it became so late in the game that I could no longer ignore his failure to engage me fairly. Let's pay a quick visit to Downton Abbey Mafia, in which civilian llama was wrongly suspicious of civilian Epignosis without information:
There should be some familiar language in there. llama has the tendency to assert total confidence in his reads even when he makes no real effort to promote those reads. Moreover, he seems to have a hard time trusting vocal thread leaders. "I think he's playing a masterful game and playing us all for fools" -- the same stuff he repeatedly said about me in this game.

1b. Mac thought I was bad too, and he called me both MP's team mate and the Process. There can be no "information", there can only be suspicion. And he was wrong.

2. Earlier in the game, you "perceived" a separate potential reason for their behavior:

nijuukyugou wrote:No votes for mafia. On a JJJ vendetta. Methinks this stands out a bit too much for a baddie, or Process, unless there’s something we don’t know. I really, REALLY want to hear why he believes JJJ is bad, because I don’t see it, especially based on votes. It looks like a curse or screwed up win condition of some sort, reminiscent of Biblical mafia (except JJJ isn’t after llama, while llama’s after JJJ). Or he’s just fucking around.

You were willing to view his behavior from a civilian perspective, but instead of guessing at it being information, you suggested it might be a "curse". That is such a specific guess, especially when assigned to a player who would have had to carry such a "curse" for nearly the entire game to that point. I find this very telling. You saw one player who is now a confirmed townie (llama) railing hard against another player without putting forth a comprehensive case, and your guess was a "curse".

This says to me that you knew both llama and I were innocent, or at least not Camerata, and you wanted to comment on the bizarre nature of his treatment of me without drawing negative press from either of us. You created a highly specific scenario to explain his behavior in such a way that both of us could be civilians, and I think that's because you had more information than either llama or I did.

But now, in an essential end-game scenario, you return to this stuff and portray it as actual information llama/Mac might have had against me as a component of your call to lynch me -- a lynch that would end any hope of victory for the Cloudwalk faction. That's the definition of opportunism.

nijuukyugou wrote:Two, consider JJJ's plan today to go after an element instead of a baddie. I've been over this - what civilian reason would one have for doing this? The tiniest, tiniest chance, which requires trust in the mafia to go after an element instead of a civ? Not this late in the game. No way, Jose. You're just trying to buy time.

This is just plain incorrect. I laid out as clearly as I possibly could why I was pursuing the lynch of an element, even before I put up the really big post explaining it. I engaged you on this point multiple times, and each time you utterly failed to address the logic I was putting forth. Instead, you just swept everything under the rug and told me I was "just trying to buy time". So tell me:

If I am bad, and my intent is to lynch an element merely to "buy time" -- what do I gain from that? What's the point of "buying time" if the same players are all still going to be alive in the next game phase, probably carrying forward the same suspicions? This is a non-accusation entirely, it's a vague and reductionist explanation for something that I was doing for reasons you never bothered to discuss at all.

I even prompted you to explain to me what the fault was in my logic, and instead of answering that prompt you told me I was buying time. You still haven't addressed the logic I put in this thread.

DFaraday wrote:I don't understand how not doing anything makes sense for the Mafia.

If I'm correct, the Process has two votes today, right? So at least it can't control the lynch.

I doubt it was their intent to do nothing. They were probably disrupted by Cheerleader, unless they were dumb and tried to shoot a townie but hit the Process.

You're right though that a voting advantage has still been salvaged, assuming Jerk has a vote and is unable to use it while it's not in the poll. This allows a 4 non-Process to 2 Process votes ratio, which should be sufficient to pursue a Camerata lynch today. This is of course assuming Luna isn't some Process sleeper agent with a vote that counts.

We need to talk everything over as a group before people start throwing votes around. If we lynch a player today it has the potential to decide the game, and any rash voting bears a chance of locking us into an unwinnable position. When time permits I'll explore every possibility and see where I end up.

Voting Clucker.

Luna wrote:Bark.

You're so adorable.

I think you guys have made the right choice.

If we lynch Weed and the mafia respond by killing a townie, then they're literally not paying attention to anything and probably cannot win the game. They need town votes to lynch the Process. The Process doesn't need town votes to lynch them, unless they eliminate an element to maintain the cooperative advantage.

kneel4justice wrote:because the mafia wouldn't kill a civilian over the night

I think this is the point that people need to put thought into. I've asserted it repeatedly now, and it hasn't been refuted in any meaningful way. No matter what happens in this day phase, the mafia are mechanically unable to kill a townie unless they want to blow the game for themselves. If they do that, then there won't be enough votes left on the table between the town and mafia to overtake the Process, meaning the Process would have close to free reign over every tally thereafter. Moreover, if a townie is killed then only one townie remains -- that last townie will know himself to be the last townie, and thus have no reason whatsoever to trust anything anyone else says -- let alone even care what happens. The mafia need town votes to survive, and they need those votes to be motivated by real initiative. There's no other avenue for them to assert control over the tally as necessary to lynch the Process (something they absolutely must do to win the game).

I don't think I'm missing anything here. I've thought about it repeatedly and I don't see any way for this phase to be better spent lynching a player than lynching an element.

I am baffled honestly that I seem to be the only one who understands this point. Do you see a lapse in my logic?

I'm going to be out briefly again, but I should be back well enough in time to answer any questions people may have.

I think the element most needing to go is Weed, because that one is exactly how the Process can commandeer a poll and secure it's own win. It probably doesn't matter though TBH between Weed and Fetch. We all have to vote for the same element to maintain tally control.

I implore those of you who are willing to listen to what I am trying to tell you to vote for Weed. This is the only way to keep this game winnable for anyone other than the Process.

*votes Weed*

If you've read what I've laid out and don't understand something, please ask. I'll try my best to clarify.

Okay. Time is limited in this day phase, so I am going to limit my focus to what is pertinent. That means I am not going to bother answering to accusations I have faced that I am mafia, or that I am the Process, because in the current numbers scenario it literally doesn't matter what I am. If I am lynched, the beneficiary is never Cloudwalk regardless of my alignment. I understand this might strike some people as a radical notion or something, but I implore you to please listen to me. There is no need for me to have any "agenda" here, it is basic math. I'll lay it all out here, displaying the possible scenarios from other people's perspectives for each possible alignment that I could flip.

If you lynch me today (or any other player), the consequences are as follows:

1. JJJ flips Cloudwalk: -- Obviously town is screwed. Only one townie remains after my death, and there are no scenarios which would allow that townie to be the last surviving player.

2. JJJ flips Process: -- We're in a 2:2:1 ratio right now. If I am the Process, lynching me will yield a 2:2 ratio. That is probably an instantaneous Camerata victory.

3. JJJ flips Camerata: -- The 2:2:1 ratio becomes 2:1:1, preceding the night kill. The Camerata are mechanically forced to kill a process element for two reasons:

a. With only 3 non-Process votes left in the field, it is impossible for the combined strength of Cloudwalk and Camerata to control the lynch against the Process while Fetch, Weed, Clucker, and Jerk all remain intact. The only possible hope is if both Clucker and Jerk do not have votes that count (this is not likely at all given the voting ratio we've seen from the Process faction), which would leave the game at 3 non-Process votes to 3 Process votes. The game is reliant upon a coin flip, and ONLY if Clucker and Jerk have no votes. If even one of them does, the Process has more voting power than the Cloudwalk and Camerata combined and can eliminate them systematically with that advantage.

b. Killing a townie leaves only one townie remaining. That townie will then KNOW that he is the only townie left in the game, with no chance to win. That townie then has no incentive whatsoever to vote in a way that is beneficial to the Camerata faction, and they need that townie to vote for their benefit to have any chance of overcoming the Process.

If we examine the win chances per each of these scenarios, they are as follows:

1. Cloudwalk - 0%, Camerata - nearly 0% (same reason as [point "b"] above), Process - nearly 100%

2. Cloudwalk - 0%, Camerata - 100%, Process - 0%

3. Cloudwalk - nearly 0%, Camerata - nearly 0%, Process - nearly 100%

No matter what I flip, the Cloudwalk faction is screwed. This logic holds no matter who is lynched if it is a player instead of an element.

So what happens if we follow the alternative that I am trying to promote by lynching a process element instead?

The current ratio is 2:2:1. The current voting power of the Process is 3 (Weed, Fetch, the Process itself). The combined voting power of the Cloudwalk and Camerata is 4 -- just barely enough to assert control over the lynch if everyone cooperates.

After the element is lynched, we're still in a 2:2:1 ratio. The Camerata are still mechanically forced to kill an element instead of a townie. The same logic from points "a" and "b" above hold, this time from the opposite perspective. The Camerata cannot win the game without lynching the Process. They cannot lynch the Process on their own if they cannot control the voting majority -- this means they are mechanically dependent upon the Cloudwalk to attain the numbers necessary just as the Cloudwalk are dependent upon them. There is no way around this. It's just how the math works out right now.

So how can town win this game? There's only one route left that I can see.

1. Lynch a voting element (either Weed or Fetch).
2. The mafia kill the other element that wasn't lynched, because they have no choice. Killing a townie would likely ruin them (see points "a" and "b").
3. Research Clucker/Jerk. If the researched element has a vote, assume the other doesn't. If the researched element doesn't have a vote, assume the other does. This is a bit of a gamble, but I believe it is necessary for the exchange of element-eliminations to leave town with a free lynch.
4. The Process voting power is down to 2 (Clucker/Jerk and the Process itself), the combined voting power of the Cloudwalk and Camerata is still 4.
5. With a 2-vote edge over the Process, town is free to lynch the lead Camerata suspect. The combined voting power of Camerata/Cloudwalk still eclipses the voting power of the Process. Moreover, the Camerata are still forced to kill an element no matter what for the same reasons I've already stated. This means control over the lynch is maintained until endgame, and it is the only way to attain that.

~~~

This is the point I've been trying to convey. It has not been viably contested. Instead, I'm being told that I am merely "trying to buy time", as if "buying time" is something that holds any value right now. Lynching elements leaves the base numbers ratios where they are in the present. It opens the door for both the Cloudwalk and the Camerata to have a puncher's chance in this game -- because right now if they don't cooperate, the Process has already won. This isn't an assertion pulled from nowhere, it is a mathematical deduction.

I'm on the road right now, but I'll be back soon. niju has failed again to address thebasic mathematical flaw in her argument, and I'll lay out exactly what I'm talking about. If you vote for me without hearing me out first, you'll be handing the game to the Process.

Theory:

DB and niju are the Camerata. They're trying to generate negative press about me because they genuinely believe I am the Process, and thus lynching me would win them the game today.

nijuukyugou wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.

You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?

There is no way civs can win if we don't get a baddie today. No way. Even if we lynch the Process itself and not a baddie (not even an element), we cannot win. Baddies would kill a civ the next night and civs would lose ALL voting advantage, only being dependent on the Process (IF the Process were left alive, and I seriously doubt if that were the case, the baddies would go after an element and not a civ) to keep them going. We need to get a baddie, to take that chance. Don't even try to paint this like it's more of an advantage to go after an element. What you're suggesting is a baddie strategy to keep your faction alive, to buy yourself more time, not save the civs.

I agree that lynching the Process itself would be a game-losing play this phase. Lynching mafia today isn't necessarily a game-losing play, but it relies entirely on both Clucker and Jerk having 0-worth votes. There is a route to victory if an element is lynched today which I just described. You're failing to address the core of my argument and instead pretending I am "stalling", which would be completely pointless.

DrumBeats wrote:What I'm stating is still correct though that the town can't win if we do. We need to force the mafia to only be able to kill elements to win. We're currently equal to the mafia and they will reduce our numbers instead if there is no need for them to shoot the process.

I think the Mafia can only kill elements now regardless of the number of them in play, because as the game stands they need town's votes as much as town needs their votes. More importantly, if they actually shoot a townie then there will only be one townie left in the game -- one who will have no reason to vote any specific way because the game will be over for him. He'll know he is alone. The mafia cannot control the lynch either with even one extra process vote remaining unless they have a committed and engaged townie in this thread able to place a meaningful vote in their favor unwittingly.

The Process will win this game unless both of the other factions cooperate in reducing its power before acting against one another.

DrumBeats wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.

You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?

Town cannot win the game while we are equal to the mafia either. We have a chance to win if we lynch mafia today. Then the remaining mafia has to shoot an element to have a chance. It's very bleak for us, but we have a shot.

I think what you're stating is incorrect unless both Clucker and Jerk cannot place meaningful votes.

Today the Process controls 3 votes (itself, the protective -1 vote, and the 1 vote). The total combined voting power of town and mafia is 4. If we lynch mafia today and they kill a voting element, it goes to 3-2 without accounting for the other two elements. If either of them can vote, it's 3-3 and control over the lynch is lost.

The only sure means town can win that I can see is eliminating the vote-capable elements first to such a degree that lynch control is maintained. Then the two Camerata must be lynched in succession with the Process's aid. Lastly the Process itself must be lynched.

Cheerleader wrote:

nijuukyugou wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.

Ive alredy said that llama was our master!!

Like, this is totes seriooooussss, ok? We need to all vote for JJJ today. He's soooooo bad. If anyone is good, u need 2 vote 4 him or the cameras will win!!! After this, we can discuss the next course of action, buuuuuttt like Id like a fighting chance, and I cant even do that if the townpeeiple r playing lik poopy pants

I don't know why you keep trying to promote the notion that llama was "our master" when it's publicly known that he couldn't have been. The Process is immune to kills. llama was killed. When the Process is eliminated all of its elements die too. You exist. The end.

You know I'm not the Process and that's why you want to lynch me.

nijuukyugou wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.

You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?

We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.

DrumBeats wrote:Mafia, if you want a statistical chance of winning you have to shoot an element tonight. If you shoot a Civ the process can tie all nonprocess votes if fetch or clucker have a vote.

Moreover, if the mafia shoot a civ there'd only be one civ left, who would then have no reason to trust or work with anyone else. If there is ever a time to kill and lynch elements systematically, it's now.

I think the two Camerata are among niju, DFaraday, and DB. K4J is the most likely Process. Of the Camerata, DB and niju would make interesting team mates. The way niju tried to crap on him at the end of the day based upon a false voting premise when he had no real chance of being lynched anyway could be a distancing tactic.

Niju, you keep saying DB placed the "clincher" vote on Zebra on Day 1. This doesn't make sense -- his vote came before any of the Elohcin votes. You're accusing him of sealing the Zebra lynch over the Elohcin lynch as if he had a distinct intent to do that -- implying he'd somehow know that a 5-vote wagon for Elohcin was going to come after he voted for Zebra.

Voting Mac.

DFaraday wrote:I think with two baddies left we really need to take one of them out this round. Thus, I'm *voting Mac*

I would agree with this, it'd be better to lynch Camerata than Process today if possible. I'm leaning toward a Mac vote too.

Well we have an hour left. I think Mac is my top Camerata suspect with niju behind him. Niju and K4J look the most Process-compatible.

MacDougall wrote:Now you're just using longwinded verbose language to discourage other people from reading my post.

I don't care if people read your post. I think I illustrated pretty well why it's bullshit.

kneel4justice wrote:@DrumBeats - I vote towards the end of the day phase because votes aren't changeable. Where I come from, a lot of things change throughout the course of the phase, even in the final minutes of a phase, so I prefer to withhold my vote for that matter. So, expecting me to vote early isn't going to happen unless for some reason I cannot make deadline. That's really all I can say regarding the timing of my votes. I expressed my suspicion of Eloh in my first post, but a lot of people overlooked that post so it was hard to engage in any pushing without personal interactions to feel out. With MP, I admit that I was wrong but I stand by that he defended his change in Eloh well and made it believable - I don't think anyone would really disagree with this. I know that my vote for him came late and without much prior pushing of big suspicion but I had things to do and when I looked at the time, had realized I needed to vote before I missed deadline.

When you eventually did contribute your vote to the MP lynch, what was it specifically that inspired you to place your vote for him after having felt good about his explanation of his treatment of Elohcin?