The Syndicate

I spent a great deal of time laughing as I thought about how spectators and dead players might feel about the progression of the game and my unending survival.

I've always said that winning as a bad guy isn't necessarily about fooling people, it's about evading the noose. I obviously needed some luck to do that in this game, but it's a great example. I might as well have had "serial killer" painted on my forehead.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Civilians are toast, so please kill me tonight.

This was a post I'd been keeping in my back pocket and is the main reason I killed Epi instead of MM. This post told me that MM had nothing left to use against me.

It's a real shame the Mafia tried to kill me first. I could have handed your ass to you.

That would have been a poetic ending.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Civilians are toast, so please kill me tonight.

This was a post I'd been keeping in my back pocket and is the main reason I killed Epi instead of MM. This post told me that MM had nothing left to use against me.

If I had known in the end that it didn't really matter whether I killed Epi or MM (and that it'd be a 1v1 coin flip), I'd have probably killed MM just to set up the Epi showdown. At the time though I was still in a mindset of strategy and "what do I have to do to finish the win?", and that's why I killed Epi.

I appreciate it y'all. To be honest though, I truly only had to get out of one lynch -- the last one. Day 5, trice is lynched and I look terrible. Day 6, I get lynched and my survival is used up. Day 7 I am off the poll. There is no Day 8. Day 9 is a kingmaker.

I definitely gave it my all, but I was also very lucky.

G-Man's move did technically allow me to kill Dom too. Mafia's weird sometimes.

I think we're all going to remember this as an extremely entertaining game and nothing less Rico. Pat yourself on the back.

Any endgame scenario is up to the host Rico. You did what you thought was best, and it's not like you could have asked us what we thought beforehand.

I think the best rule of thumb is that civilians must be able to control a lynch to continue playing. 50% of the votes does not meet that requirement, so 1 vs. 1 without extra votes or a lynch protection would always be a civilian loss.

I thought Golden was very likely to be rezzed at some point.

Epignosis wrote:Then I stayed firm on 3J being the serial killer on the basis of a skipped kill. I saw through that bullshit.

I was actually told entering Night 8 that I was not allowed to kill that night. I need to look at all of Rico's details to see why that was; I'm not sure.

Ricochet wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Goddamn Rico.

wut

I feel like your endgame posts (and really all of your displayed material in this game) are a peek into the machinations of your mind.

Seriously, thanks for hosting Rico. You put a wonderful effort into this thing on every level and I am glad the game was able to stay exciting to the last very last click.

Trice:

Good game everyone, and thanks for the kind words.

I needed a ton of lucky breaks to win this game; I won't be gloating or anything. In many ways the civilians kicked my butt, I just kept managing to find ways to squirm out of it.

Ricochet wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Does that mean I was lynched or I win?

You can breathe and rejoice now k.

*explosive exhale*

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Does that mean I was lynched or I win?

Who cares? You killed me you ass.

Yeah I felt like an ass. It was a strategic choice though -- Marmot was a bit more dejected about the situation and seemed less likely to have any last tricks up his sleeve.

Does that mean I was lynched or I win?

I only just now saw the "poster" you were talking about.

Marmot, we're short on time. Do you follow the conversation?

Epignosis wrote:Is MM even a civilian? There's been no conclusive evidence of that.

I don't think there's conclusive evidence of it, no. I think he looks more like a civilian than DrWilgy though. I'd also rather lose to him if I have to lose because he's given a hell of an effort.

I think that might be the case. He appears to have been short on time.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marmot's vote probably belongs to you anyway.

I don't know what that means.

I think he'd follow your vote because he trusts you considerably more than either Wilgy or I if he is able to check in.

Marmot's vote probably belongs to you anyway.

Am I speaking French?

If there's a SK, lynching the SK is a game-losing move.

If there's a SK, lynching the mafioso is a game-losing move.

If there's a SK, lynching a civilian can still allow for a civilian win.

If I'm wrong about 1v1 and it ends as a coin flip, then it's a kingmaker anyway and the civilians can flip a coin against whichever baddie they don't lynch.

If there's not a SK, lynching the mafioso wins the game for the civilians.

If there's a SK and the SK is lynched, then the civilians are left praying for Rico to allow a 1v1 coin flip.

Lynching a mafioso can either leave the civilians in the exact same position or it can win them the game outright right now depending upon the alignment of the ratios.

Jesus H. Christ.

If there's a SK, lynching the SK is game over for the civilians.

Lynching a mafioso might not be game over for the civilians.

Even lynching a civilian stands the chance of resulting in a civilian win. The only lynch that can't result in a civilian win this phase is a SK lynch.

If 1v1 actually does amount to a coin flip, then the civilians have the opportunity to choose who their coin flip opponent is. Either way the coin flips the same.

Wilgy probably can't be the SK because of BWT's period of absence. He's a great Mladic candidate.

I think it's very obvious at this point that Wilgy is Mladic. He has glided through this high pressure phase, made a couple empty posts, and held his vote throughout. No effort to solve. He is waiting, not playing. The only time a civilian ever does that in an endgame situation is when they aren't able to get to a computer or a phone. Wilgy has been here and he's left the pressure to everyone else.

My face if a mafia team of Vompatti and Wilgy wins this game:

Returning from a game of Monopoly with the siblings.

DrWilgy wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I am considering voting DrWilgy. Based on his subtitution timing and activity since then, he's a less than ideal player to have in LYLO (no offense Wilgy).

I just wished we could have lynched him earlier.

I disagree but respect this notion.

What do you intend to do with your vote? What is your opinion of anything? We're nearly in the final hour of the final four.

A comparison to an example you might remember, Epi:

In Transistor, I was bad and llama opposed me vocally and consistently from the early stages of the game throughout his lifespan. I left him alive for a while but was eventually forced to kill him because it was a vote I would not be able to move. In a limited field of votes, that's too big a problem to allow. So I killed his ass and then dealt with the consequences.

If I was bad here I'd have done the same thing to you.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Again -- do you really believe that my baddie strategy is to keep you alive and change your mind?

I keep you around all the time.

I'm talking about the specific circumstance of this game. I might have some persuasive skill, but if I am bad I don't take it upon myself to try to change this guy's mind if I don't have to:
Posts like these are why we're both here right now. Someone(s) was counting on your vote landing on me and here we are. If there's only one baddie my money's on Wilgy.

Epignosis wrote:But if I think the role is gone, then you're cleared. No Herculean effort required. No effort at all. I recall how frustrated you were with me that I wouldn't come around to the notion that the serial killer was dead. Even reading your posts now makes sense in that regard.

You've made it clear that you think I'm bad regardless of which kind of bad. Eliminating the SK from the conversation doesn't spare me your vote. As we've discussed here, the events of Night 8 don't even affirm that the SK is dead. All we can do is speculate. Again -- do you really believe that my baddie strategy is to keep you alive and change your mind? After the conversations we've had in this game? Entering Night 8 phase, nobody was more likely to plant a vote on me than you in Day 9. Other people had expressed suspicion of me too, but none of them were as severe or certain as you were.

Leaving you here is suicide if I'm bad. I play to win.

Epignosis wrote:If the SK was sig, then sig would still have been able to submit a kill. There was no kill from the SK Night 8. You could say sig missed his Night action, but I don't see that being the case if you have to raise the idea that sig had "sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills." sig is very much active here the past few days, more than he was before because of his school being in session.

If the serial killer is dead, it has to be Lorab or Quin. But Lorab and Quin had those twin rainbow posts, and I don't believe I have ever seen Lorab do a rainbow before. I don't think anybody believes either of them are serial killers.

The serial killer is still alive.

I arrived at sig as the lead prospect by process of elimination. Quin and LoRab have cleared you. BWT/Wilgy would have likely missed at least one kill. Marmot has given the best effort in this phase to solve the game and looks civilian at face value. If the SK is alive I think it's him, because that's the least conclusive point of defense.

I don't know what kind of nonsense might have been in play on Night 8 to leave us without a kill. Maybe sig himself opted to abstain. I have no idea. I think sig was a good candidate to be the killer and under the current circumstances that's where I'd lean.

DrWilgy wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Please tell me how you arrived at all three of those reads.

Can I tomorrow?

I'd like follow-up on this, Wilgy.

If I'm a baddie, you're dead today Epi. There's no need to employ these ruses. When you're dead you can't vote for me.

If people suspect that I killed you, it's just one more thing on the suspicion pile. It's speculative and inconclusive. That's not something I'd care about; I'd leave myself in a LyLo with people who I think can be lynched instead of me without a Herculean effort by me. You're not that guy. In this scenario I am forced to either get you lynched or get you to change your mind about me -- perhaps the two most difficult tasks there are right now. That's not a winning play and I don't put myself in that position deliberately.

To be frank:

I can understand being suspected as the SK. A guy who knew who the SK was fingered me as the SK. That's something I've had to contend with much to my frustration, but I can understand why other civilians might view that as a problem for me.

I don't understand being suspected as a mafioso. Dom's treatment of me is nothing like teammate behavior, and no matter how much you want to scare yourself with WIFOM b/s, it makes no sense for me to kill sig. None.

Marmot, we just played a game where that kingmaker scenario occurred and I lost as a baddie because a civilian was lynched at LyLo. It's fresh on my mind and we're in a very similar position. Of course I brought it up today.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

After you changed your read on Epignosis to civilian, your next post suggested the strategy of lynching a civilian, not lynching DrWilgy. I don't think that mindset comes from a civilian.

I put up the kingmaker scenarios to display the circumstances because it's an important discussion to field. It also netted an immediate response from you and I think there's value in that.

I didn't suggest lynching a civilian. I said there's a scenario where that might be necessary. I left my vote on the guy I think is Mladic because I don't think the SK is in this game right now. If the rest of you disagree with that, it's something that should be playing into your reads and your voting decisions. That's the point of talking about it.

Epignosis wrote:I don't see how that strategy works though. Say Trice doesn't get lynched and his role isn't revealed...how does that get him recruited?

Best case: the SK sees a guy fingering someone conclusively as the SK without significant basis in the evidence, and thinks it's a signal worth checking. Recruitment occurs.

Worst case: the SK doesn't check him and he plays on to try again (trice).

The alternative strategy you're associating with him is an "I want to lose, fuck you JJJ" strategy. That would be trolling.

I mean come on, it makes no sense to decide the game on a coin flip just because one civilian is still alive. That's nonsense. Rico might be unpredictable, but he still knows how this game works. When a mafioso or a SK has gotten to a 1 vs. 1 and those single votes are all that's left, the game is over. That's Mafia.

The game will be over before Christmas.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

It is in the rules though.

It's an assumption to say that rule applies to an endgame ratio. That's not typical even on this website.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

1v1 between two opposing baddie factions is a little different because "control of the lynch" is no longer the condition of importance. In that situation I could see a coin flip.

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

I've already done this. Anticipatory play to serve as a recruiting signal and to attach himself to the wrong person when his role is publicized.

Epignosis wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Also, 1v1 with a civilian alive means the control of the lynch has been lost. That's game over in any scenario where there aren't extra votes or lynch protections. Tied tallies result in coin flips, 1v1 isn't a "tied tally", it's an endgame.

Epignosis wrote:If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

Epignosis wrote:I've operated under the belief that 1v1 would result a coin flip as stated in the rules.

The game will end before Christmas. Today is Christmas Eve.