The Syndicate

a2thezebra wrote:The feeling is mutual since your most recent post quoting Snow Dog is waffly as shit.

What's waffly about it?

Linki:

did you even look at Quin's Mad Max game?

Snow Dog wrote:Ok if zebra gets lynched and turns out bad and i didn't vote for her this time that could look bad I guess? Still am unlikely to vote her though. I'm still fretting over that first day Quin self vote. Epi's case on Nijuukyugou looks not too bad. Sif I dunno, going back and fore on that one. Soneji also a possible but am unsure of.

dammit no wonder i left this game for so long.

This is Snowdog's vote post yesterday, I think. It's basically the only reason he gives for voting Quin, and then he throws a few other names in the fire too. He even prefaces with a what/if thought condemning zebra without voting for her. -1

lol one or both of you could be bad but neither are on the same team. I'm not sure I want to vote either of you today though.

a2thezebra wrote:Quin accused me of discriminating against his alignment because of time zones when that was clearly false, I like him but I'm not sad that he's dead whether he was bad or not for that reason. And I do think he was bad (inb4 Epignosis comes in to tell me it's pointless to say that) for the record.

linki - That's because my beef with Mac - in case you can't tell - is more personal than game-related, and JJJ and llama both told me to cut it out. If I had an extra lynch today it would be Soneji.

Oh ok.

Here's where I'm at with you: you think mac is bad, and you've got 2 people ahead of him in queue you would rather have lynched. I guess your read of Mac is circumstantial and I brought him up, not you. But calling someone bad and then leaving them on the shelf like an old Furby is what was confusing me.

I just looked at the voting record and both you and Snowdog have both OMGUS'd each other the first 2 days. Then on day 3, he deviates and votes instead for Quin (who you still suspect was bad, and had a lot to say about it yesterday), while you continue to sound the battle horn on Snowdog.

After witnessing a baddie Quin in Mad Max go through the entire game tunneling on one person to throughly throw off the town, your insistence on Snow has got me wondering, Chicago

a2thezebra wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Scotty wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Quiet day...
bollocks

Voting Snow Dog.
Oh yeah? What's your opinion on Mac tho?

And HEY MAC where are you looking to vote today?

Don't think I didn't forget about your little pickle salad on day 2.
Wait
Never mind I seem to be forgetting. I looked back- zebra basically just called Mac and asshole, but has been consostently voting Snow Dog. It was Mac that made a statement that zebra was 100% bonafide scum.

Linki: oh well color me confused
Where does the confusion stem from?

I guess I just don't remember you beating the zebrastick on Mac all that much, you've just been lightly tapping it since your little spat.

I would expect that if you think someone is bad to vote for them, but you have been quite adamant about Snowdog being bad too, i guess i was just confused about the priority you had.

If you had an extra lynch today, other than snow dog, who would it be?

Snow Dog wrote:All my best friends died. Why do I want to play this game anymore? Oh come back Ian, we miss you. WELL DON'T DIE THEN!!!!!

This post seems genuine. I'm not so sure you would have been fine killing your friends so early. Which ones were your friends exactly? Epi, MP, Golden?

This is why I asked a question early on as to who would not feel comfortable killing someone as part of a larger meta. And you certainly fit the bill.

You still could have killed DF and Quin

Scotty wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Quiet day...
bollocks

Voting Snow Dog.
Oh yeah? What's your opinion on Mac tho?

And HEY MAC where are you looking to vote today?

Don't think I didn't forget about your little pickle salad on day 2.

Wait
Never mind I seem to be forgetting. I looked back- zebra basically just called Mac and asshole, but has been consostently voting Snow Dog. It was Mac that made a statement that zebra was 100% bonafide scum.

Linki: oh well color me confused

a2thezebra wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Quiet day...
bollocks

Voting Snow Dog.

Oh yeah? What's your opinion on Mac tho?

And HEY MAC where are you looking to vote today?

Don't think I didn't forget about your little pickle salad on day 2.

Snow Dog wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Scotty wrote:I'm still under the impression that there are pirates in the mix of my shortlist. But I also realize that the cannibals are probably actively hunting for pirates, so I probably need to start looking there so we have less chance to mislynch those on my list. Soneji is the top of my list, as he was with Boom yesterday.

I want to look at LC, MM and of course zebra.

MM, what would you say if i told you I feel like you were buddying Epi the past 2 days?
I have been budding him because he's ths civvest of civs and I turst himt.
Yes he certainly appeared so. But he could have been playing a very clever pirate game. Consider this, he and Black Rock are pirates. She doesn't have time to play so says she will get a replacement. Epi says, no don't do that, i will expose you and throw you underthe bus instead and I will be praised as master baddie hunter and I will be top civ!

Just saying it is possible thta's all.

Right, well that's what I kept coming back to. Epi is either supaciv or pirate teammate. I never got a straight answer from him on why he was so sure BR was bad. It surely wasn't her post history. It all just seemed too good to be true. And MM here has been behind him every step of the way. I'm always wary of people buddying and agreeing too much with what I say (because I can't always be right, despite what my mom says lol)

If MM is bad, which team would he be more compatible with? I'm thinking he could be a pirate. If I'm going to depart from my thinking that the night no-posters are probably bad. I mean, heck, I was wrong about Boom, so I know that can't be completely true.

Where does a post like this come from on day 2:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
Ok I'll bite.

break;
vote(blackRock);

Epi says BR "isn't doing much to find mafia", and uses that as a guideline for committing. Guess who also isn't doing much to find mafia?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I am neither mafia, nor doing much to find them.

MM does an about face with his spaghetti code:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:// Method for Monkey Island gameplay
while (alive) {
if (vompatti == alive) {
vote(vompatti);
} else if (a2thezebra == alive) {
vote(a2thezebra);
} else {
vote(self);
}
}

return;

Nowhere does he mention BR. This could be and is probably a joke post, but he still goes out of his way to list a couple names, so it can't be a complete joke. MM can do what he wants and vote where he wants, but this is a flagrant and hypocritically blind vote with no given reason. Even though it caught a baddie, I don't like it at all.

If BR was bad, and Epi was her teammate, BR said "sure, bus me"- MM would have heard that in BtSC too, if he were bad.

I would be fine with a MM lynch today.

Soneji wrote:Most sites don't allow posting at night. Night is the period in which the majority of actions are done and having no posting during it allows people to focus solely on what to do with their action. I don't forget to send in actions, I've even once been referred to as "godfather even when not godfather".

If I say how they are likely to expose themselves they won't do it. That is just common sense man.

That's quite the reputation. And it's sating me. Do you personally think the pirates missed a kill on N1, or was BR just happenstance (I know we don't know it was missed, but the small sample size is 1/2. Which isn't the best odds, but it's not terrible

As for your other question: I'm not asking what your bank account number is, I'm simply asking how you think prey is going to expose themselves.

Soneji wrote:
Scotty wrote:I'm still under the impression that there are pirates in the mix of my shortlist. But I also realize that the cannibals are probably actively hunting for pirates, so I probably need to start looking there so we have less chance to mislynch those on my list. Soneji is the top of my list, as he was with Boom yesterday.

I want to look at LC, MM and of course zebra.

MM, what would you say if i told you I feel like you were buddying Epi the past 2 days?
With Boom in what way? I voted Zebra. Might do so again this phase.

I think it is possible that this is the day the prey exposes itself, just have to wait for the right moment to pounce.

You, BR and Boom didn't post at all on night 1, when one kill was probably missed. We know how one of those panned out.The reason I voted Boom instead of you yesterday is because you explained that you are often not accustomed to posting in the night. Which is a slight cop out, but at least it was something. Boom seemed too nice to me.

You are firmly still in the camp that could have missed a kill, or BR was caught for abnormal reasons that had nothing to do with her lack of posting. You're at the top of my candidates for pirate partners. Still want to look for cannibals this phase, but for now I'm letting you know why I suspect you.

How do you think the prey is going to expose themselves?

DrWilgy wrote:
Scotty wrote:Figures Epi died. RIP! Surprised at Quins death, seeing as he was getting lots of pressure from people yesterday. I think he was good, for the record.
DrWilgy wrote:Q.Q

People I wanted to talk to today are dead now...
What would you have talked about that you couldn't do so yesterday?

Wilgy, have you checked your Role PM yet?
Laziness. It's not like the day was going to start and I was going to talk to them right away.

And do you think I did? If I did what do you think I learned?

You were going to talk about laziness? I'm not buying that you really wanted to talk to them specifically, nor does this answer make me think you're really even looking for baddies. You're playing a game without any accountability, and that makes me nervous.

And why are you not even answering the question about your Pm? I think it was a pretty black and white question.

I'm still under the impression that there are pirates in the mix of my shortlist. But I also realize that the cannibals are probably actively hunting for pirates, so I probably need to start looking there so we have less chance to mislynch those on my list. Soneji is the top of my list, as he was with Boom yesterday.

I want to look at LC, MM and of course zebra.

MM, what would you say if i told you I feel like you were buddying Epi the past 2 days?

MacDougall wrote:
MacDougall wrote:Zebra is Mafia without doubt. 100% absolute bonafide guaranteed lock it down impossible to deny.

Mac, are you going to vote zebra today?

Zebra, what about you?

Figures Epi died. RIP! Surprised at Quins death, seeing as he was getting lots of pressure from people yesterday. I think he was good, for the record.

DrWilgy wrote:Q.Q

People I wanted to talk to today are dead now...

What would you have talked about that you couldn't do so yesterday?

Wilgy, have you checked your Role PM yet?

Oh man I'm sorry boom. And sorry for missing the night poll, llama. It's been a busy day- haven't been around at all.

Who would ever suggest doing a matinee on a Friday? Who would go see that anyway? No one. That's who.

Ok folks's, I've got a lot to do in prep for thanksgiving (happy turkey day, US of A!) including prepping my first tofurkey (wtf). I'm sated for now with soneji's response to the "MP is civ" thing. I think I'd rather vote Boom today, so I'll go ahead and do that. Godspeed, brave adventurers!

boom

Soneji wrote:Scotty you are aware that there are two scum teams right? Even if I was part of one and killed MP, I wouldn't know if he was town or part of the other scum team. Promoting MP as town wouldn't be in my best interest either, given my suspicion on him d2.

This doesn't have anything to do with my assertion. I'm saying you slipped- that you would be more likely to call Mp town if he was your kill than if he wasnt.

Soneji, who would you have killed if you had to pick someone that was alive day 2?

Epignosis wrote:I'm going to be blunt. None of your conversations are useful in finding mafia. None.

Get thee behind me Satans.

Thank you very little for failing to answer my question.

But tell me, Epi. What constitutes "useful"? I think it's all useful. It's people interacting with one another.

Epignosis wrote:At this moment, I am uninterested in a lynch of zebra, Snow Dog or Soneji.

Or Vompatti. I'll throw him in there too.

The reasoning used to vote for any of these people is terrible.

That isn't to say I think they are good- I'm only saying damn people. Do better. Like me. [/quote
What is this post?

What made your case on Black rock any more sound than, say, Soneji? If you recall, Soneji did not post on Night 1. Neither did Black rock. You were SO ready to commit a vote to BR that I'm surprised, now that we've caught her, that you wouldn't find similar parallels in at least Soneji. What aren't you telling us, O wise one?

Quin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Quin wrote:A rainbow list for MP and I to have a chat about later . Most of these are substantiated and would ideally do with a more in depth ISO. No specific order, other than the obvious.

Nachomamma8

Boomslang
MovingPictures07
Elohcin/motel room 2.0
Scotty
metalmarsh89
DrWilgy
MacDougall

Vompatti
DFaraday
Snow Dog
nijuukyougou

Black Rock
Soneji
a2thezebra
Epignosis
sig
Long Con

@linki - I was just about to do the same thing before I went to bed. Voted sig.
Oooooh, a shiny rainbow, I love it! How the hell is Nacho still ahead of me? What do I have to do for you people?

I need to continue my ISO assessments this morning (they will have to wait until after teaching though), so some of these players I don't have super firm reads on. But we have some cognitive dissonance. Why slight town on MM and Wilgy? What did you think of my crappy Wilgy ISO? Why is Snow Dog a null (right?) read? I have more questions but I'll leave it at that for now.
Admittedly I might be overestimating my read of Nacho. I'm sure I've mentioned it before, but his approach to the game has checked all of the townie boxes so far. His approach is a lot like mine, too - and I feel like it's more likely to be genuine going off of that.

I'm not going to make something out of Wilgy's 'I won't check my rolecard' thing which most people seem to be interpreting in a bad way, because I know the act of opening with some sort of gambit is more likely to just be a non-indicative thing. It might seem contradictory, but I'm also town-reading Wilgy based on his 'I haven't checked my role card' gambit. What I like is, specifically, the 'thing' he chose as his gambit. Suggesting he hasn't read his role card is a load of bs, there's no way he hasn't, because I don't think he's the kind of person to screw over his team for the sake of a joke, and I think he'd have chosen a less self-incriminating meme if he were bad. I haven't read your Wilgy ISO unfortunately, I will at some point when my face doesn't hurt so bad and I'll give you my thoughts then.

As for the marmot, it was a read mostly based on tone. I don't think his Black Rock vote looked bad, though - if he's bad, I don't think they're teammates at least. The lynch could have gone either way at that point, and he only tied it up, not put her in the lead.

Snow Dog was a bit of an afterthought when I made this, it just got so late. I don't feel confident putting him as a null read, since he's one of the most active posters. He deserves more attention than I've given him.

I'm mostly curious about your moderate town read for Long Con. I'll wait on your ISO before I comment further, though.

Lay more questions on me. I find in my current situation I'll be best motivated to participate when I've got someone expecting things from me.

I see you view Epi as a mafia read. But I also see you and Nacho share a strong town read of each other. That makes me nervous.

1: what makes Epi mafia to you, and do you have any updates reads since Br flipped?
2: is Nacho still your supatown? Or is he your super partner in crime (SPIC)?

Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.] aubergine
[VOTE:
I am quite sure you know I was referring to you analyzing MP' s rainbow lists and not you making one. It is called context.] aubergine
[VOTE:

I don't know why you call his analysis ridiculous.] aubergine
[VOTE:
It is based on equating lack of nuance in a rainbow list on a d1 with very little in the way of reads as a scum tell for MP, due to some general pattern of MP's rainbow lists having on average less nuance when hes scum, without accounting for the context in which those other rainbow lists were made compared to the ones he has made this game.] aubergine

Epignosis wrote:[VOTE: Somebody bad voted for Black Rock. Black Rock was a prime candidate to be bussed, but there are two mafia teams. I would bet my left nut someone who voted Black Rock is bad. Maybe even two people. Don't give anybody credit for voting her.

Soneji can get lynched for his move against me. That was lazy.

Quin too because fuck that guy.

If my theory is right, then Black Rock, who was on the pirates team, missed the kill. That means the Cannibals are organized and getting shit done. The Cannibals killed Golden.

Leaving this here for now.] aubergine
[VOTE:
Coming from the dude that went after an inactive. It hit scum but it was a blind shot.] aubergine
[VOTE:

You sound upset.] aubergine

[VOTE:
Would you vote Soneji today? I could very well do so.] aubergine

Snow Dog wrote:So now I state I'll probably not vote zebra I see that now votes are coming in for her! Sheesh!

Do you live in America? Guns are free.

Stick to your guns.

I never don't understand the trepidation with trains forming. If that is your reasoning. If you suspect someone, why should a bunch of people (albeit 2!!) give you cold feet? That zebra called you out on this makes me feel sliiigjtly better about her.

a2thezebra wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Y'know what...

I still think mp was bad.
I do too.

To both of you: why.

And how does that help you sort things out right now?

Nijuu, I wanna hear more from you. You're still on my watch list of pirate compatibilities with Soneji, Boom, Nacho and Mac.

Hey @Epi!! What do you think of the notion that other BR teammates are on my shortlist? You sorta dropped that after gunning for BR. I would think you would be excited of the prospects of nailing another.

(Unpopular opinion..): Unless your teammate BR just wanted to be thrown under the bus and you're ready to move on. It would explain how out of the multiple inactives I mentioned, you chose BR. It just seems like you either learned something via night you can't disclose in thread or you yourself are her teammate. Just so you know not every player thinks you are supertown for sniping her

For now, I do like the hunting you're doing, and I'm not looking to vote you at the present, I'm just paranoid

Not mny people talking about me, except Nacho calling me strong town. Me no likey. Someone hit me with a zebra stick.

Also, Mac and zebra playing patty cake with scissors a few pages ago tells me they are probably not knowingly on the same team. I think zebra is the worse of the 2 tho, with her veiled taunting for us to lynch her. I think she is a cannbial.

Epignosis wrote:Some uncharitable commentary:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
Ok I'll bite.

break;
vote(blackRock);
MM and BR have a history of killing each other, if I'm not mistaken. A teammate MM jumping behind me on an absentee BR lynch would get him in early on the BR lynch while also being sort of poetic. That's nothing MM can defend against, I don't think, but I felt it worthy of mention.

Ironically (in this scenario), one of MM's first orders of business was to joke about me throwing Black Rock under the bus.

Scotty wrote:Guys I'm at Disney land right now and am not going to do a full response to anything before EoD, so...

MP, I only skimmed your sig case but don't feel like I can make a qualified switch to sig. if he lasts after today, then I'll put into words as best I can what I think is civ about him. I'm as yet undecided there so I think I may have to vote for one of the inactives. Black rock isn't my first choice- that would maybe be boom, believe it or not. Or zebra. But.

Gotta go

Black rock
Scotty voted Black Rock saying he would rather be lynching Boomslang or zebra. What is funny here is that right after Scotty voted Black Rock (before presumably getting thrown up on by another rider), three individuals jumped on zebra. Had the timing been different, Scotty might have gotten his zebra lynch. Scotty did in fact vote for zebra Day 1, and did so when there was nearly zero chance of zebra being lynched, so Scotty abandoning that vote for Black Rock doesn't make much sense if zebra or Boomslang were truly his primary suspects.

DrWilgy wrote:Saved my teammates by voting BR.

Byyyyeeeeeeeee.
DrWilgy could have tied up the vote, but that would have been risky doings. Besides, saving an absentee teammate might not have been worth the risk. I note that Wilgy missed the Day 1 vote, so no comparison can be made.

That's a good summation for us 3, but what do you read from those votes?

motel room wrote:
Soneji wrote:
motel room wrote:Speaking of
Soneji wrote:Zebra has had a very narrow focus this game, without giving anything to backup these reads and trolling/harassing people. His aim seems to be to distract, which as LC noted he wasn't doing d1 when the two main suspects were MP and motel room, both town.
How do you know MP was town?
I don't. I had that idea in my head for some reason but yeah, all NK's are janitored on this site which I'm unused to.
Yeah, which even if you're scum could be legit cos there are two bad teams. Was just wondering.

Nacho and Soneji killed MP. Calling it now.

long day, long night. Here for a few min.

Rip Mp and DF. I hope one or both of you were bad.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:Epi, I knew that DFaraday died yesterday night (I have checked the nightkills), but MP dying stood out in my mind more than DFaraday dying did.
If you knew DFaraday died, then your recent posts about him make no sense.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
DFaraday wrote:I'm sorry I missed the vote. The last day of work before break was hectic. Will catch up later today. I'm voting to learn more because more information is likely a good thing.
I have my eye on DFaraday in particular; I find it odd that he popped up and had input on the night vote (which isn't indicative of alignment in any way at all) and yet hasn't really given input on anything else.

Nachomamma8 wrote:MP's ISO on DFaraday reinforces my scumread there, though; would be happy with seeing them dead today.
I read the night post. I knew that DFaraday died along with MovingPictures (hence my "all my friends are dying" post that showed I was aware of the night post). When I was catching up today (after a full night's sleep), I forgot that DFaraday was the one that died along with MP.

Even with this explanation, it makes no sense. You either knew DF was dead or you didn't. It's like peanut butter having only trace peanut butter in it. It's peanuts and butter- no grape drink in it!

I think what makes it more likely you "forgot" is that your team killed MP. And the other team killed DF.
So which team are you on?

Epignosis wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:Epi, what do you think of the point I brought up against Boomslang?
Boomslang voted Wilgy on his own when BR already had four votes, so he truly didn't oppose a Black Rock lynch. He didn't try to save her but he didn't try to lynch her either. None of that really means anything to me.

To me, it enforces the idea that Boom had no conviction with his vote. Wilgy wasn't getting lynched at that point.

Voted Sword

Disneyland was great. Except for a small child screaming behind me in the Pinocchio ride blowing out my eardrums. I hope he grows up with a minor allergy of some sort

Woo GG Epi!
I must say that I am not surprised she flipped bad, but I also would not have voted her if zebra had had a train of her own going when I voted. I still think zebra is fishy as fuck, but now that BR has flipped bad, I'm in the mind that her teammates are probably also the ones on my list:
-Boom
-Soneji
One of Nacho, Mac, Motel room 2.0, ninja and DF

And that's just for the pirate team.

The cannibals will be trickier to catch- they probably killed Golden, and are probably active.

My current fear is that Epi is a cannibal and has been ringleadering as a supatown so that we'll give him Cred. I might just be paranoid tho.

MP- if I'm alive tomorrow, I think I'll have some time before my show to properly answer your sig case. Until then, I gotta go run errands.

Guys I'm at Disney land right now and am not going to do a full response to anything before EoD, so...

MP, I only skimmed your sig case but don't feel like I can make a qualified switch to sig. if he lasts after today, then I'll put into words as best I can what I think is civ about him. I'm as yet undecided there so I think I may have to vote for one of the inactives. Black rock isn't my first choice- that would maybe be boom, believe it or not. Or zebra. But.

Gotta go

Black rock

Oh, and I like motel room's entrance.

I was digging supatown Nacho in D1 and he hasn't posted since day 1, so I'm feeling less good about him atm.

I do feel like an infusion of some of the low posters will help this phase along.

K, turning phone off

boarding a flight to Cali right now and won't want to mafia on my way to our next stop, so I'll post now and check back tomorrow

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Scotty, got any reads you want to throw at the thread?

As you probably know, I tend not to like to throw around civ reads too early.
But, I get good vibes from you, Epi, and...surprisingly, sig (NOT DOG).
I think zebra is my biggest baddie read right now. I don't remember if she ever got back to me why she suspected Snow and not me. Her behavior is either a flamboyant townie that is full of WIFOM or a blatant baddie. It's hard for me to differentiate but I'm leaning bad.
Of the 3 N1 inactives, I like that Boom responded to it, but I am actually leaning towards him as a slight mafia read. His inference that he was around but just didn't post doesn't sit well with me.

Quin wrote:I'll post this here as well just so people are aware of why my activity or level of effort might drop in this game:

Quin wrote:I'm getting one of my wisdom teeth out tomorrow. Originally I was supposed to get both of my bottom teeth out way back when I got the first one out, but I had some issues getting scans done so the dentist postponed getting one of them. So now I get to go through recovery a second time
My painkillers make me drowsy and between that and the expected repeat of the lack of sleep and pain I went through last time, I probably won't be incredibly motivated for a while

oh dude that sucks. I got all 4 of mine taken out a bit ago, and that was a pain in the ass (mouth). I got dry sockets on the bottoms and had to pack gloves or some shit into them every day to stop the bleeding and pain. Oh god the pain

motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.
Welcome back!

In a way it is a presentation, of my thought process.

What do you think of said the thoughts i proposed?
I think they all could have happened - which do you think is the most likely?

You dropped three names and I think that's the substance of the post. What to do with that, we'll see.

That's just the problem. I think the odds are better that there was a missed kill. But I also think that it's not terrrible odds that both teams targeted Golden, seeing as he was a high quality poster and I guess he could put up a big roadblock for baddies as the game progresses. A protector is far less likely seeing as it's a needle in a haystack this early in the game.

It's dangerous to outright assume there was a missed kill and we needlessly go on a withhunt. The odds are leaning me in that direction.

But I'm usually biased when it comes to low posters

So I'm open to going a different direction.

To tack on to that, we didn't really take that option seriously because I mean...what are the odds ALL the baddies miss the kill?

I think that if a team missed the kill it was the cannobals, since there's only 3

motel room wrote:
Boomslang wrote:I tend to agree with Epi's line of reasoning about culling inactives, having just been part of the Three Kingdoms debacle. I think sig is way off-base with the following thought:

sig wrote:I think its just as likely one of the roles stopped the second night kill.
There are only three protectors, and one of them would need to successfully target a kill sender with only a single day of gameplay information. If there were eight missing PMs, that's a lot more possibilities for missed kills.

Boomslang wrote:Just realized that eight PMs figure was from Epi and not confirmed for this game. Disregard, but I still think the odds of a baddie being hidden among the inactives are pretty good.
What happened in Three Kingdoms?

Cos I think obviously there's "a baddie hidden among the inactives" cos there always is, but surely the start of the game with the most people alive and fresh why tf would anyone say out loud oh it must be the quiet people and be serious.

There was no kill on night 1 because all [3? 4?] baddies missed it. That game had a collosal lapse in sent actions if I recall.

motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.

Welcome back!

In a way it is a presentation, of my thought process.

What do you think of said the thoughts i proposed?

Epignosis wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
There's an inherent bias many people will have. Consider: If you are the blocker or the protector, and one of the kills didn't go through, you will want to believe that you played a part in stopping that kill. You will either suspect or trust the person you targeted, and that's fair. I'm not faulting anyone for playing it that way. However. given confirmation that there were "lots" of missing PMs an hour before the Night ended leads me to believe that the protector and the blocker should both dial back on their respective levels of confidence.

That's assuming either of them did dick last Night.

That being said, do you currently suspect those non-posters that I listed? And if so, how would you go about weeding them out if none come back and post?

Oh but isn't that meta easily taken advantage of? Like "I would never kill [monkey]- I deplore the killing of [monkey]!" Then killing [monkey] would look very good for that person.

sig wrote:
Scotty wrote:
sig wrote:
Long Con wrote:
sig wrote:I could also see LC killing Golden day 1.
Not so likely. I'd kill plenty before killing Golden.

I kind of skimmed your big post, but it looked like Golden said he's good at reading me, so I killed him. Sorry, my time is short right now, I'll try again in a bit.
It's an avenue I said could be present, but it would be more likely that you killed him before he started to read you as bad and not because he was reading you as good.

I don't put much credence in my ISO of Golden though.
Do you usually put credence in NK analyses? Or is it just for Golden?
I would say it varies on each situation.
I'm less confident in this NKA since Golden had few posts and nothing that really stuck out for why he would be NK'd, plus I usually find D1 night kills to be more random, since people's thoughts are in general more random. Furthermore Golden is a good player so the mafia could just have just killed him since he is a stronger player.

Overall alot of WIFOM is put into NKA and it's sometimes very helpful, but could also mean absolutely nothing. Which is why I'm not really pursuing anyone because of Golden's ISO there just wasn't really enough information present.

Fair enough. I tried doing that a while ago and never felt like i gleaned anything of it, except for the opposite reason. I mostly use it for analyzing who is less likely to kill the person in certain scenarios.

Like I remember I was bad last year and killed off someone Day 1 and another person immediately ruled out SVS as the killer because "she would never kill that person day 1" as if I was supposed to know that.
Sort of like how someone just mentioned the travesty of killing Golden in his comeback game- is there anyone that would never do that?

What's your point, Scotty.

Ah, well. At the end of the day, I agree that there's just too much WIFOM in general to look at someone to kill, but with people playing with some history between them, I figure it makes sense to eliminate people from the suspect pool that could have killed Golden N1.

Is there anyone playing his game that wouldn't do that- moral code, bets, promises, what have you?

thellama73 wrote:
Scotty wrote:@HOST Are you at liberty to say the exact number of PMs that were missing last night? And if so, how many?
I'm the host. I'm at liberty to say anything I want. I make the rules!

ok great!! Thanks for clarifying!!!

sig wrote:
Long Con wrote:
sig wrote:I could also see LC killing Golden day 1.
Not so likely. I'd kill plenty before killing Golden.

I kind of skimmed your big post, but it looked like Golden said he's good at reading me, so I killed him. Sorry, my time is short right now, I'll try again in a bit.
It's an avenue I said could be present, but it would be more likely that you killed him before he started to read you as bad and not because he was reading you as good.

I don't put much credence in my ISO of Golden though.

Do you usually put credence in NK analyses? Or is it just for Golden?

@HOST Are you at liberty to say the exact number of PMs that were missing last night? And if so, how many?

Question for the thread: so I'm never fully sure of what makes a NK a good one when it comes to the victims' suspicions.
Does it help the killer look more civ if the killer was a suspect of the victims? How about if they were defending? There may not be a correct answer, I'm just curious.

Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet

So I looked over those that didn't post or barely posted last night to try and gauge inactivity, based on Epi's hunch.

These people did not post at all during the night phase:
-Black Rock
-Boomslang
-Soneji

These people had minimal to say:
-Nacho posted right after the D1 lynch, and since then, nada
-Elo posted once to announce she needed a replacement
-Mac posted once Friday night to debase zebra
-nijuu posted late Friday night to be back later
-DF posted once but right before end of night. (So he probably wouldn't have missed a kill)

There's quite a few of compatibilities..the only one I listed I would rule out is DF just for proximity to the end of noght

Epignosis wrote:I'm not interested in MP right now. I want to give him room Day 2 to get his ideas out there (like he ever needed room for that ), but I want to know who missed a kill. That's a team of four and a team of three. One of those teams fell asleep at the wheel.

Not necessarily- both teams could have vied for Golden. Or one was blocked.

Though I originally thought back in The 3 Kingdoms that they were blocked or something and the entire team did in fact miss the kill on night 1, so this isn't so far fetched, especially considering the missing votes.

I just don't think we necessarily should assume they missed the kill is all.

a2thezebra wrote:
Long Con wrote: So Zebra, if you could talk all along, then why were you not?
#YOLO
Long Con wrote:Was that a method of getting through day 1 without attarcting much attention?
No, I want all the attention.
Long Con wrote:I wonder if you would have stopped fooling around sooner if someone other than motel room or MP had been on the chopping block?
Who are they?

Zebra, why do you want attention?

And why do you suspect Snowdog? Why do you suspect Quin?
Why don't you suspect me? After all, I voted for you yesterday.

Scotty wrote:I swear to dog I'm This close to changing my autocorrect so every time I post dog it's sig instead

I GIVE UP GOODNIGHT

I swear to dog I'm This close to changing my autocorrect so every time I post dog it's sig instead

thellama73 wrote:Snow voted for Zebra, but because he replaced in mid-day and had already voted the non-player option, I let him post his vote in the thread, so it didn't show up when I copy-pasted the poll into the polls thread.

Doh. Looks like I am the idiot.

Sorry dog!

sig wrote:
Scotty wrote:
sig wrote:This was a very weak reason I'm espacilly eyeing MP and the people who voted for Zebra.

I also find it odd WIlgy missed the vote, if MP does end up being mafia I'd like to look into lynching Wilgy.
Its day 1. What more convincing articles could you have for day 1?

And "the people who voted zebra" are...just me. Can I help you with your eyes?
Snow also voted for Zebra you don't seem to be reading clearly.

MP didn't mention his vote was self preservation when he did the voting though, that just came up after motel flipped. I'm really being pinged by MP right now.

I'm just going by the official list on the polls page:
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... f=2&t=1185

According to that, Snow didn't even make the vote. Just like 51% of the United States a few weeks ago.

Anyway, why am I suspicious for voting zebra?

I looked up LOOM and still don't know what this poll is about. Is it information? Because it sounds like information.

I'm voting to get information from the grizzled peg leg mustache

a2thezebra wrote:

Search found 167 matches