The Syndicate

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:30 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:28 pm Thanks for the host Leetic!
Thanks for indoctrinating me, mafia. Would’ve been more of an uphill battle if I were just survivor

you suspected me/abbie d1 lol

whoopsie

Thanks for the host Leetic!
Thanks for indoctrinating me, mafia. Would’ve been more of an uphill battle if I were just survivor

Again, gg town- you had the right processes, just couldn’t nail it down.

My role also exists that it was negative utility for me to be alive if we lost any mafia, so I had to make sure Porscha/robyn never got eliminated. I think we were super fortunate the only town PR was brutally murdered by 4 town

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:21 pm you're telling me i blatantly softed and neither of you read it

I don’t catch softs, I’m more of a hardball type of guy

Thhaaaaaat makes more sense.

I thought Robyn was Robyn Goodefellow. Literally didn’t even knew the name of my role

I’m sorry Leetic I’m a wolf

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:17 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:15 pm oh wtf it was actually "robyn goodfellowe" and he didn't name the flavor after me LOL

YEA my person was Scotty

WAIT WAIT I thought it was Robyn?

Wait, I WAS YOUR PARTNER?

leetic wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:15 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:13 pm

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:12 pm Ok so i knew my target was a wolf cuz i watched the movie after rand LMAO to know wtf this robin girl was and she’s a wolf walker in the movie

Yeah we deduced it was Robyn from your iso, but it made no sense from our perspective with me being the other wolf-siding 3p

The setup was designed so that Stick could win by townsiding. I guess I didn't count on them actually watching the movie

But wouldn’t it have made more sense for stick to have a town partner? That way they could literally townside because it would be in their best interest.

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:13 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:12 pm if anyone is wondering where the second nk went, we didn't use it lol

yeah that

makes more sense now ;_;

That was all Robyn’s idea- they snatched me on N1 which is why I turned around on Princess Abigail. I don’t think I would have ever thought of withholding a NK for shits. But it worked out for numbers

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 7:12 pm Ok so i knew my target was a wolf cuz i watched the movie after rand LMAO to know wtf this robin girl was and she’s a wolf walker in the movie

Yeah we deduced it was Robyn from your iso, but it made no sense from our perspective with me being the other wolf-siding 3p

That was…hard fought

Gg yall

If this is a loss, gg I guess

This wagon was late forming and I don’t think it’s pushed by scum

Nah, I’m not falling for it

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:54 pm [VOTE: Baker] aubergine

I officially will defacto vote 3p claimers every game if you are lying btw

Just want you to know that

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:54 pm I dont get this fucking game man

unvoted idk how to show that on the poll except the little host thing

It’s ok delta, see you tomorrow

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:52 pm So I need to do the vote thing here for jt to count or does the poll suffice

Unclear, might as well do both just to make sure tho

Stick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:51 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:46 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:46 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:44 pmstick

stick?

stick

Stick!

It feels like you're lolcatting and I don’t know why

Just vote baker

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:50 pm

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:48 pm ah well this is sad

[VOTE: martingg99] aubergine

fuck, i did misread you

yeah no more excessively long posts by me anymore

Quick- what is your current worldview of Wilgy? Because if you think he is good, vote baker

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:46 pm

robyn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:44 pmstick

stick?

stick

At this point, I’m feeling >80% confident with Martin and Wilgy currently voting baker.

If Wilgy or Martin are wolf here, we have lost. I can put my tinfoil hat away

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:34 pm porscha wagon getting resistance

intersting

My dude, is that the best defense you’ve got?

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:24 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:18 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:41 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:38 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:58 pm Just want to ask though Scotty, why did you take a nightkill happening as WIFOM about me rather than there being a mechanical explanation?

I dont think wolves were particularly setting up to kill a lowposter by NKing in the long run, feels pretty illogical

Are you kidding? That’s the most obvious, lev 1 explanation coming into today.

If I were a wolf (and I hate if I were a wolf arguments) this situation works out perfectly to make you the scald goat. I’m seriously confused how you don’t see that

What I mean is that like

Wolves are obviously going to kill, I dont see a reason they dont even if I am a wolf here. I dont think that's really tied to my alignment at this point?

My point was why is it WIFOM specifically over something mech wise when wolves always benefit from killing, rather than only killing to frame?

If we could get to a mech reason why there weren’t any kills, that would be easier to wrestle with motivations. On the surface, all we *really* have is a WIFOMy reasoning of Garebear being inactive for 2 NKs, you replacing and suddenly there being a kill.

Also, “Wolves are obviously going to kill”

Are they? That’s a jump to assume

????

We're in LYLO with a 3p claim

Why would wolves not put themselves in that position?

I don’t know what we’re talking about. Truly.

Why would wolves not kill N1 and N2? They lost an ENTIRE CYCLE needlessly.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:56 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:44 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:27 pm I think headspace wise, I really just don't WANT to lose to Robyn or Baker.

I think I've moved on from losing to Delta/Porscha.

I need to be mindful of these thoughts as they will in fact effect where I desire to vote.

I’d much rather vote baker today than Robyn, fwiw

I am about at the point where based on input today, I would highly respect your wolf game if I lost to you on the effort you’ve given

I mean, at this point Baker would be a fine vote, but again, Robyn is voting town.

Wolves can just shove me if Robyn is town.

Remaining town from my perspective have to vote Robyn wether right or wrong unless Robyn changes their vote.

Aye, and same. I've lost to you fair and square if you are a wolf my brother.

We need a salute emoji

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:54 pm We need some sort of consolidation of votes anyway considering the circumstances

Issue is we're missing a lot of people ;O;

I dunno. I'm spooked by how easily Baker went with the vote ;_;

Look at it this way- if I’m wrong on you entirely, we can assess things tomorrow. Or we just lose.

Especially if wolves obviously are killing in the night

I would like to veto a Martin/wilgy/porscha vote today

I feel strongly about baker and delta. I feel strongly

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:56 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:54 pm We need some sort of consolidation of votes anyway considering the circumstances

Issue is we're missing a lot of people ;O;

I dunno. I'm spooked by how easily Baker went with the vote ;_;

i wanted to make things interesting idk what i am doing tbh

[VOTE: baker] aubergine

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:42 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:40 pm In any case, I’m currently voting you because of the optics of the day and I don’t want to pick between baker/wilgy and be wrong

?_?

Ultimately a vote on me is still wrong, though?

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:41 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:38 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:58 pm Just want to ask though Scotty, why did you take a nightkill happening as WIFOM about me rather than there being a mechanical explanation?

I dont think wolves were particularly setting up to kill a lowposter by NKing in the long run, feels pretty illogical

Are you kidding? That’s the most obvious, lev 1 explanation coming into today.

If I were a wolf (and I hate if I were a wolf arguments) this situation works out perfectly to make you the scald goat. I’m seriously confused how you don’t see that

What I mean is that like

Wolves are obviously going to kill, I dont see a reason they dont even if I am a wolf here. I dont think that's really tied to my alignment at this point?

My point was why is it WIFOM specifically over something mech wise when wolves always benefit from killing, rather than only killing to frame?

If we could get to a mech reason why there weren’t any kills, that would be easier to wrestle with motivations. On the surface, all we *really* have is a WIFOMy reasoning of Garebear being inactive for 2 NKs, you replacing and suddenly there being a kill.

Also, “Wolves are obviously going to kill”

Are they? That’s a jump to assume

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:27 pm I think headspace wise, I really just don't WANT to lose to Robyn or Baker.

I think I've moved on from losing to Delta/Porscha.

I need to be mindful of these thoughts as they will in fact effect where I desire to vote.

I’d much rather vote baker today than Robyn, fwiw

I am about at the point where based on input today, I would highly respect your wolf game if I lost to you on the effort you’ve given

Porscha wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:12 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:49 pm Baker and delta setting up Porscha…hmmmmm

The worst part is i dont scumread them for doing it but it feels almost impossible there isnt likely 2 among wilgy/baker/delta. Maybe 1 if im fucking it up

I’m not even entirely sure I trust you- I just think your predecessor is more town than not based on wagon formations, and I suspect delta more than you btw

In any case, I’m currently voting you because of the optics of the day and I don’t want to pick between baker/wilgy and be wrong

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 4:58 pm Just want to ask though Scotty, why did you take a nightkill happening as WIFOM about me rather than there being a mechanical explanation?

I dont think wolves were particularly setting up to kill a lowposter by NKing in the long run, feels pretty illogical

Are you kidding? That’s the most obvious, lev 1 explanation coming into today.

If I were a wolf (and I hate if I were a wolf arguments) this situation works out perfectly to make you the scald goat. I’m seriously confused how you don’t see that

Baker and delta setting up Porscha…hmmmmm

Delta wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:53 pm I feel kinda lost here because I came into today with a POE of Porscha/Wilgy/Martin and then throughout today I feel like they work less and less?

And I get now is the time for wolves to distance because all they need is one kill to win so hard pairing can kinda throw that away but like
it feels natural? Rather than an unpairing thing

I dunno. It's weird & I dont really know what to make of it?

I feel like now is the time for wolves to just pick a non mafia target and consolidate there. I don’t think distancing is really on the radar

Might I add- there have only been 3 votes all phase. From a mafia standpoint, they probably are fine surveying the field here, and can just pile on whoever they want.

Wilgy has had the highest vote total for the longest at 2- me and Robyn.

Baker has been sitting on stick, and has sort of tried to justify that he thinks stick is just one of the mafia? I guess?

I’ve been flitting around like a fucking jack russell

Delta has disappeared after being active early, and I think that’s a bad sign.

[VOTE: Delta] aubergine I feel like regardless of how I feel on the big talkers, maybe the safest vote today is you.

Why?

Idk, puritan country, let’s ride

Ok here’s the deal:

I’m not sure how much I’ll be around towards eod between work and shit and feel like we’re not even close to the same page.

Stick low key wants mafia to win here, so their vote can’t be counted on.

@robyn i don’t know what kind of stuff you’ve got going on, but I don’t know where you stand. The last post I saw said you could be recanting your town read on baker- anything specific? Who are the top 2 scum reads you would be willing to vote at this point in the game?

————————
I’m so conflicted because a part of me wants to lead the charge on baker, but I have no confidence. I feel in my heart there is a difference check between Wilgy/baker, and I just can’t shake that someone is playing slickly, but my hesitation comes from:

-wilgy’s gone from doom and gloom early phase to involved vote associations. And I feel that internally because he solves as much from flips as I do (and we only have 4 flips) to really trying to figure it out. I appreciate his solve and if he’s wolf then he’s giving a great adjustment here
-baker is an unknown from my standpoint and his approaches to suspicion reads extremely guilty, but based on Martin’s meta read, which I believe has to have a modicum of honesty to it regardless of Martin’s alignment, I have to at least take into account the playstyle could just be how he plays. I feel like we jumped on DM for far less.

So here I am, trying to choose between them. But if no one else but Wilgy is seeing what I’m seeing, then I have no earthly idea.

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:55 am I was paranoid of robyn for a good while d1/d2 but I have found some posts where they are more likely to come from town

Porscha seems to be tryharding which is probably town

Don't like Scotty shading me earlier, similar vibes to d1 I also think scotty could be teamed with Wilgy

Delta is hell to read. Martin did trend down for me since yesterday

My dear pastry chef,

Do you automatically suspect anyone that suspects you?

Love,

Hunting dog

baker wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:47 am Here are some quick reads:

I think Wilgy would be my next scumread. Wilgy has been scumreading me for 3 days and hasn't really made any developments. They had voted awfully outside of "baker" I am actually surprised nobody ever questioned baker/wilgy theatre here, I am thinking we can find a lot of information from a Wilgy flip. There is also a good chance of hitting a wolf anyway

I don't know who else really STICKs out. I see we have new people in town, so imma let you guys vote the scum, I will sheep.

Bold strategy, cotton

The way you both have handled each other, while fakeable, reads as organic and not stilted (especially from wilgy).

This whole post is low key hilarious because it feels like it’s from the perspective that we’re not currently in lylo

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:02 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:21 pm Ok this is important, because if you’re town, then this makes things easier, and there’s probably not a difference check between you. I’m just currently in my own Willy wonka factory and it’s called ‘Confirmation Bias’ and need to figure out if yall really are just wolf/wolf

Kinda surprised that if you're suspecting me then you're just taking my word for that, but you do you. If you reallllly want my comment on something let me know, but otherwise I'm not really going to engage you on the topic of me. I figure we prob have a few key differences in approaching the game which are probably some level of not-easily-reconciled (ex: "crazy"), in which case interaction between us might not help the situation all that much. Worst case could be like you doubling-down on me, and I might stupidly (I'm saying stupidly so I don't actually do that) reconsider you for just doubling down on me. Which would be really bad for town unity in LYLO.

I think as a wolf, you’d still comment on your meta with baker. It’s an ingratiating tactic that I’ve used a lot as wolf- be as honest in your approach as possible, with details that stand out, but not revealing the actual motivation.

You threatening me here to not double down feels oftly like an ‘or else’ type of threat. Like, I don’t care if you scum read me, I’m trying to figure out if I can townread *you.*

Do you disagree that mafia have done absolutely nothing to advance any agenda? Because from your POE of Porscha/robyn/delta/baker, only baker is someone I would qualify as pushing the envelope, and that’s generous

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:52 pm but if you want the vague answer

I think Wilgy has been very direct at times on trying to advance and solve the game, his interactions with scotty d2 made me feel positive about both of them, and just progression in general

even now his gameplan here seems to be rather pragmatic on trying to achieve his wincon and that's something I sympathize a bit with

That’s EXACTLY why I’ve been townreading him all game.

But it’s also EXACTLY why I’ve done a 180 because obviously something isn’t working. And town is being led astray. Why is that?

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:47 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:37 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:20 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 pm Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker

And I mean yes, in a non lylo situation (and if LC were alive he would attest), I have been spurned one too many times by letting a claimed 3p waltz to endgame. But like or not, we’re here at endgame and if baker truly believes stick is a 3p, that is beyond lazy thinking. I don’t know his town behavior, but based on how he came after me on D2, I’m confused about his motivations in general

how did come after you day 2?

I made a wagon attribute of falcon’s wagon and he was one of the 4 that I felt had an opportunistic motivation. He basically No-U’d me and said my post was a blatant attempt at smearing him. Or something like that. And then he just simmered there for the rest of the day, offering other reads but never moving from me.

@MartinGG99 is baker the type of person that gets extremely defensive when pressured *as town*? How about *as wolf*?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:20 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 pm Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I've seen towns go for this very basic viewpoint/gameplan, particularly outside of The Syndicate (I'm look at you, GOC something-something where Alison hard-claimed 3p early on and just solo won the game lol)

but otherwise yes its something a wolf could easily do as well so I don't really see it as a plus for Baker

And I mean yes, in a non lylo situation (and if LC were alive he would attest), I have been spurned one too many times by letting a claimed 3p waltz to endgame. But like or not, we’re here at endgame and if baker truly believes stick is a 3p, that is beyond lazy thinking. I don’t know his town behavior, but based on how he came after me on D2, I’m confused about his motivations in general

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:20 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:16 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:08 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

I reject a Wilgy/baker world. They don’t look performative in their suspicion RE each other.

When you have a chance, if you are town, please look at voting and pushes people have made throughout the game.

look - i'm not saying if one is a wolf that the other *has* to be a wolf. I just think at lylo with most names being thrown into the poe bucket by someone, we have to be wary of such attempts at pairings like the one wilgy suggested and is arguably pushing (yes I am influenced by wilgy fear too)

I mean you literally just said you were entertaining a w/w world with them and I’m saying that world is so far out of our galaxy, Captain Kirk won’t even boldly go there

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:12 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:58 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

I'm preety sure I have the most experience with Baker in this game, just as much as he has the most experience with me. At the very least, I have known baker since the very first forum mafia game he has played.

At face-value I'd say if either of us was wolves then, based on the above, the other would be dead from an NK at some point. The lack of NKs probably messes with that to some extent, but I don't think Baker has really tried pocketing me at all (wherein I'm assuming pocket attempts is the alternative to trying to resolve the other from threatening wolves). At least, not with intention. At worst he's tried implicitly manipulating me a bit on early d2 but that wasn't much and it wasn't a consistent behavior so I think its safe to write it off.

Not to prod against your baker meta, because I think it is valuable, but if the game is really mech’d out with mafia not getting NKs the first 2 nights, doesn’t that change the way a person approaches the game?

This isn’t me trying to smear baker, but the possibility I’m looking at is- what has baker done since the we’ve had a NK? Do you think baker *always* NKs you instead of MR last night? If the answer is yes, that is probably really informative

the theory is that if two players are very familiar or experienced with each other

then if one of them is wolf the other will eventually see the other as a potential obstacle based on fear of meta knowledge and etc and take actions towards that

a similar example of that, of which you may or may not be more familiar with, is when Alison and Macdougall exist in a game on a syndicate

if one is a wolf and the other is not then they generally are trying to resolve each other at some point to further their wincons, if both are alive late-game then either they're both town and have been very wrong at some point or both of them are wolves

I don't think Baker has done anything directly to me to try and convince me he's not a wolf. He's just been in his own world, and only bad thing I can remember in that department was the mention of the appeal to me. He doesn't seem to be afraid of me at all really.

“if one is a wolf and the other is not then they generally are trying to resolve each other at some point to further their wincons, if both are alive late-game then either they're both town and have been very wrong at some point or both of them are wolves”

Ok this is important, because if you’re town, then this makes things easier, and there’s probably not a difference check between you. I’m just currently in my own Willy wonka factory and it’s called ‘Confirmation Bias’ and need to figure out if yall really are just wolf/wolf

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:08 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:50 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:41 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:38 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:33 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:26 pm

Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 6:07 pm

erm, why is it not possible robyn's read on baker could be from an incorrect civ? and option 3, wouldn't that mean baker would be poe *with* robyn and therefore baker shouldn't be out of poe from your perspective?

I mean, I've given case and case as to why I think Baker is w. People, especially Robyn seem to disagree.

If Robyn is town, and js wrong, and this is lylo, then it really doesn't matter as we lose anyways. These two together just seem to indicate that it's now out of my hands to control and thus I'll move on to exploring the dichotomy around then from a winning perspective, which is, solve Robyn before Baker.

Baker is out of PoE until Robyn solved.

do you still think baker is a wolf?

Yeah, but in the scenario where I'm incorrect, I'm to trust my betters and if not betters whatever spew a wolf would give me.

Robyn's protest and the lack of Baker momentum gives more credit to the scenario where I'm incorrect than I'm normally comfortable with.

betters? and can you elaborate on the second line? not grasping what you're saying, sorry for the brain fog

If Robyn is town and knows how to read Baker better than me, then I should trust my better.

There's a higher likelihood than normal, that I'm incorrectly reading Baker. I don't think that I am, but there's a higher likelihood based on the discussion around then nonetheless. Them being Wolfy but not in PoE until other information is available is how to correct this issue.

oh okay, I hear you. I just worry that we are already at the point where it's a mistake to "leave someone wolfy out of the poe" makes it so much easier to hit a more susceptible town today and auto lose. it only helps to correct the issue you are laying out under the assumption we lynch correctly today and have another go tomorrow, which if martin was correct earlier on his math, even if we lynch correctly today we are still in lylo tomorrow, another high pressure situation. like, then what? do we say the same thing about baker tomorrow? I guess some of it will depend on who gets flipped and what they flip. but I feel like you're trying to push a difference check between baker and robyn despite admitting the possibility they could be w/w, which wolf wilgy would absolutely do here to push a miselim between 1 or 2 town. like this is giving me cold feet on my own baker read, but you both could be wolves where you just use that to push a town robyn over and get the win.
doesnt help that you voted baker to no avail day 2 - I know you will vote to bus for cred post flip or just to distance too, which lends to the possibility of the w/w world of you two.

but here - as i've admitted my weakness to reading you - I want to take it slow and see if I can get a grasp this day phase that I lacked before. can you give me any other thoughts on other worlds / pairings or even just individual wolfiness you had thoughts on throughout the game?

I reject a Wilgy/baker world. They don’t look performative in their suspicion RE each other.

When you have a chance, if you are town, please look at voting and pushes people have made throughout the game.

ok hear me out

I’m currently thinking of a martin/baker/delta world.

D1 vote consolidate of Martin and baker. No real save attempt needed, as the counter wagon was PA/LC as threat.

D2 vote was split- no Garebear, baker votes me (and even though is often involved throughout the day, never really wavers), Martin votes for stick. None of them are ever in any danger of going, as DM is the main wagon in the end.

Baker comes in today not really bothering with his previous position on me- (where did that go?)- and takes the stance to elim stick. I did the same thing coming in suspicious of stick, but I’ve since recanted.

Martin is the most likely candidate for deep wolf, because who the hell suspected him up to this point? So why didn’t he die? Especially if baker is wolf? They’re partners

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:28 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:55 pm

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 4:24 pm Voting Stick is autoloss unless someone else is 3p and would like to speak up because it's LYLO, she dies, wolves kill, wolves win.

Baker idling there isn't good if they're town because it means wolves can just chill and snipe Stick for the win. So I'm worried about them snapping there then disappearing when it's not the play based on numbers.

If baker never comes back, how do you view that slot?

If they never come back? Ehh

I want to assume they'll check in either way before EOD but if they just up and leave I almost want to assume town? I would like to think a partner would prod em to show up at that point. But I dont think it's something I could really say would be indicative either way.

I'm more interested in their reentrance if anything

hmm see I disagree

Their iso today says: “oh, stick is bad, 3p must die, this is my idea on how the NKs went down” and peacing. I do expect them back at some point regardless of alignment, but that screams lazy and a wolf looking to just take the easy road to the end

I would be willing to bet baker is never wolves with Wilgy