The Syndicate

Great game baddies! I think best-case I could say I suspected only two out of the eight of you, and those ones I only pressed shortly before getting myself killed, so most people played really well under the radar. Sorsha too of course.

And thanks, hosts!

My initial suspicion on Dom was built on a theory that he had BTSC day 0 either with llama (more likely) or conspirators plotting against llama (less likely), so I definitely agree with it. I think that if Dom flips scum, llama will be boosted far up on my suspects list.

What makes you put MetalMarsh immediately below Dom/Llama? I could agree with it in the "compatible but not indicative" sense of things but compared to people like Wilgy that have the supportive post history and the questionable voting records, I'd put MM towards the bottom of the lynch. Otherwise, I think I mostly agree with your analysis. I'm also leaning civvie on Long Con only because he's had some interactions with Dom that look like too obvious of buddying from the latter to be scummates, but of course Dom isn't a 100% done deal yet.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think his leaning-town reads on LoRab were more the result of his distrust for the people going after her than her actual content, though he can correct me if I'm wrong about that.

Yep.

Dom wrote:3. You men me voting around my work schedule? And voting for someone I think was bad?

Well I don't know your work schedule, a quick glance over your posts does show a fairly consistent posting pattern, I don't think that is purely an excuse. E.g. Jan 15 the day before the 3.5 flip, you dropped a "Anyone else find it weird that JJJ is defending FZ when he's on the lynching block??" without following up on why when a couple of us wondered what the big deal was. You were still around for at least a couple more hours making two more posts, one agreeing with LoRab regarding Rico's theory on you regarding "suspish", the other being simply "i voted". The next post after that came literally minutes after the lynch deadline.

Dom wrote:4. I've gotten no u??? What???????? no! That is exactly what JJJ has done. He has yet to say a single reason to suspect me and thought I was civ until I continued pressuring him. But you ignore that because that doesn't fit your narrative. I haven't pulled a single No U and the only thing I'm dismissive of is a case built around a word that I only used once before on this site but was extremely common on others. It's wrong, in comprehensive, and flawed. I've explained why and not even dismissed it all that much. You are straight up lying here.

Your initial vote on JJJ came from the whole "appeal to emotion" thing you called him out on, which reads like a "NO U" to me even if you weren't the one being called out on it. I mean, hypocrisy/double-standards in casing and reasoning are something I love to point out, but your first vote was built after you had asked LC for his thoughts on JJJ, then called him out for a perceived appeal to emotion, then defended Bea for the perceived hypocrisy. Most of what came after that just looks like you sticking on JJJ with non-argument attacks (e.g. "so your buddying didn't work and now I'm somehow bad for it?", "Those are different things and you are purposefully conflating them."). Reviewing the definition for OMGUS I guess Rico doesn't fit by definition since he can't be voted for, but I'm talking about posts like "I think it's time to remove the tinfoil hat. " and "Saying that your theory "fits" and that your theory has any chance on being correct are two different things. " are just slightly wordier ways of saying "You're wrong because I say you are", which is a bad look for any townie to say, especially in an argument with a confirmed townie like Rico.

Oh, and one more thing, do you guys feel DharmaHelper would be the kind of guy to stick his neck out, defending a scummate and attacking the alternative so aggressively as he's done? In spite of the LoRab flip I'm still getting a civvie gutfeel from him, because at least I feel the mindset he's used to express his cases so far is what I would expect from a Syndicater (regarding his general dislike of counter-wagons building so rapidly and all that).

New suspect/re-evaluation: Draconus. I realize I had just defended him earlier, but looking more closely at his day 1 actions/vote, I think he may look the worst out of it. He gave a very soft defense of LoRab (Long Con pointed this out earlier and I dismissed it, sorry) about accidentally getting her wrong the last time she was a civ, and then doesn't really mention her at all after. Although Rico was obviously dominating discussion, the poll was apparently something close to a 3-3-3 split (depending on how many votes shuffled between those candidates), and Draco's vote appears to be the first to put Rico back in the lead. This is especially noteworthy because the LoRab wagon had built later and faster than the others, and could be a scummate hoping to fight that back. Worth noting that after Draco placed his vote, the next six consecutive votes (in the final poll) were all for Rico as well, and zebra was among them (so was Dom; I still have my eye there). Because there's the issue of people potentially not declaring all their votes, and because I haven't super-thoroughly made note considering it's 10+ pages of Mac/Zebra/Rico bullshit to wade through, the actual poll results at the time may have changed a little, but I think it still holds that Draco comes out of it looking bad.

Also, more of a "I'm dumb for not noticing" moment, but Black Rock had actually cast her vote a fair bit before Sorsha, so while that doesn't preclude my suspicions about Black Rock's approach in voicing her own against LoRab, taken together with the fact that multiple regulars have told me she seems on her towngame, and the fact that LoRab did flip scum, I'll put her closer to a town read now. Basically, I feel Dom, Draco, DrWilgy, maybe niju (she also looks bad based on day 1, and I like JJJ's earlier point about her inconsistencies in casing him vs LoRab) are all nice suspects at this point.

Dom wrote:I didn't think the text would vary for different bad teams if there are any.

That would be kind of weird. It'd give scum teams more info about each other than we're privy to. Is that normal here?

Dom wrote:....for what reasons again?

1. Your stated intent as early as day 0 to vote llama, predicting that he would become one of the more-voted candidates day 1, which reads like BTSC put out in public as to the planned goings-on involving him
2. Your early post history shows suspicion of LoRab, but not conviction; you basically +1 a post of Epi waiting for LoRab's response (exactly what Black Rock had done too btw), then later when Epi asks why people are resistant to voting LoRab, you come in again saying "Oh don't forget me!", like you were torn between defense-by-silence without distancing too far
3. Your vote history 3.0/3.5, and especially the way you dropped your vote on Jimmy early both times as if to stay away from argument near the deadline
4. You've gotten kinda dismissive/NO U when pressured at points, like the stuff Jimmy posted above, or a bunch of your responses to Rico here, which doesn't look good

And while I didn't want to put too much stock into Rico's "suspish" thing, since he mentioned that LoRab was one of two others that had used it, and considering her flip, I'll even add that to the list.

I'm super-duper down for Dom tomorrow.

DrWilgy wrote:What does the thread think of Bea and Juliets?

I feel good-ish on both of them. juliets I was suspicious of because earlier I felt she looked like the same juliets I saw during A World Reborn, but more recently she started making pretty directed arguments. In retrospect she did jump on to vote JJJ against LoRab pretty late, so I guess I should heavily re-evaluate my read on her. Bea I thought looked genuine in most of her recent posts and very passionate about the game, but then again, reviewing her vote and in this post where she uses some pretty waffly language especially regarding LoRab, I'd have to bump her down the rainbow as well. So actually I guess I don't feel good about either.

Dom wrote:Why can't they be on opposite bad teams?

Whoever cursed Boomslang is not on Zebra's team, unless it's normal here for scum teams to have two of the same role. LoRab and Zebra have the same red 'BADDIE' text, so I'm assuming they are on the same team. Jimmy wouldn't have built a big case against Boomslang if he could know about the curse, so therefore he wasn't on LoRab or Zebra's team... wait, I'm arguing your point.

Regardless a lot of my earlier case was built on Jimmy being on the same team as Zebra. Additionally, we don't have definitive evidence that another bad team exists similar to the LoRab/Zebra/whoever else team. So actually I think overall it looks even harder to imagine Jimmy being on a bad team, unless he's an indy.

Dom wrote:Not sure why this would change whether you suspect JJJ or not.

The biggest worry would be that JJJ and LoRab really were on the same team, that 3.0 was a proper lynch cancel, and JJJ's roleclaim a fake one to satisfy those of us trying to work out the motive for canceling the lynch. You have to admit that the odds of two scum from the same team being the top two candidates is lower than the odds of them being on different teams. This flip at least bumps Jimmy into the yellow-ish zone for me.

DrWilgy wrote:I don't think that I started buddying you, just agreed with what you had to say more than the others. Out of what I've read, It made the most sense in my head I suppose. I was pinged by you early game, but realized later that was only because I had the context of the conversation backwards.

Those who want it may use it... though... I may need to shrink it first

You made one post outright saying that your biggest suspect was JJJ because you still agreed with me and LC, and implied that you weren't voting for him when you saw that I no longer was. Your other post ("I voted JJJ the otherday simply because I agreed with HBB and LC, they are also the civviest to me so far") seemed to imply that your read of civviness on me was independent of my suspicions of him. You didn't really elaborate on anything beyond that, so that reads like max buddying to me.

MacDougall wrote:As usual my day 0 brilliance is overshadowed by my mid game terribleness.

Maybe you should just stop posting after day 0/1 every game you play.

DrWilgy, why did you suddenly start buddying me these last couple of days when I was one of your bigger suspects earlier in the game?

I think it's worth considering that DrWilgy reformed the tie on accident, but realized the potential of it to make him look horrible considering golden's immediately preceding vote change.

I also still think Black Rock was too LoRab-focused while also latching onto other people's cases in the early game to constitute reasonable suspicion, unlike Epi and Sorsha.

Voted Whitney & Bobby because I don't know them.

re: golden, maybe you're right, I still think this narrow lynch will give a lot of info to look back on. I think a lot of it will make me look bad but oh well.

Welp.

Oh, I just remembered that during Frisky Dingo, niju made a last-minute tie vote that ended up lynching a scum "by chance". Or at least I think that's how it went down, too lazy to check right now.

Golden wrote:And the idea that mafia would blink in that scenario is equally daft.

I can't give an exact example off the top of my head, but I feel that it's happened before. With potentially two scum teams at play, that makes it especially favorable.

FZ. wrote:Lynching civvies just to see the game "move" is such a counter civ thing to want.


It's so easy to enjoy this when you're not among those on the lynch trains. Scum, if I don't die, please NK me. This is the shittiest game ever.


linki: I think Golden is playing a more civ game than any of you

Aside from you, who do you think are civvies? Even LoRab I'm hardly confident about; I just feel that Sorsha and Black Rock are scummier. No one would go along with my Dom suggestion.

Does it bother anyone else that Epi seems to be reading the thread a lot but not posting?

666.

Golden wrote:I don't believe it. We actually went to a four way tie.

Officially the stupidest lynch I have ever seen.

I'm actually with fz. Considering asking for a replacement. Are the civs even trying to win? I feel alone.

I don't get it, what's wrong with a four way tie? For you, someone basically convinced of the towniness of two of the players, I could understand it, but as a general principle what is wrong with it?

DrWilgy wrote:I'm feeling my life spiral out of control

I swapped to MM to break the tie... I figured as long as it wasn't JJJ or FZ.

Nah, I think you dun gud, even if you are bad.

Golden wrote:Ties are stupid.

Depending on your confidence. I'd be a little relieved to see any of the four be lynched just to see things really start to move.

Great job resettling that tie Wilgy.

HamburgerBoy wrote:hand's

Ricochet wrote:

MacDougall wrote:

FZ. wrote:I'm actually thinking of leaving the votes like that instead of saving myself. There are so many people I wish would just shut up. Will it do it?

Lol I will move my vote off you at the last second on to a random candidate and leave it as a 3 way tie. How bout that?

Yes, because no foreseeable vote shenanigans. It's only the bloody Champies game, after all.

This. To fuck with the tie would be to play into the hand's of scum that are wondering if they should even touch this lynch, with 1 in 4 odds should any of their people be among the four.

Golden wrote:This is ridiculous. The fz bandwagon is as contrived as the jay one. So many people seeing her as a top town read.

I'm certainly not.

5-5-5-5, now THAT'S what I love to see.

Ricochet wrote:or makes me think of a certain old character...

Is there a role that has to vote the same person until that person dies?

Sorsha wrote:

Sorsha wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:

Sorsha wrote: I can't wait until you finally find out you're wrong about me this game. Chalk up another player who can't read me.

Considering how the Jay/LoRab lynch played out yesterday, are you really surprised it isn't repeating itself exactly the same today? The reasons behind that rapidly building bandwagon were clear and the source of most argument the first half of 3.5. I had you as one of my strongest town reads during Talking Heads but I'm not getting the same positive vibes this game.

I don't understand why you had civvie vibes from me that game tbh. I was a civ but it was one of my worst games ever. I defended a baddie (LC) on day one or two and then pretty much gave up after coming under pressure from Matt and Mac before getting lynched on day 4.

And to add to this- you were killed night 1 I believe? So all you saw of me in-game was me defending a baddie. So that really makes no sense that you read me civ there.

In spectator chat I was pretty vocal in reading you as a civ iirc. A lot of my issue that game was why you got crap for defending LC when a few others did just about as much, and then that mode of suspicion died off with you. Defending a baddie on its own doesn't worry me that much in my analyses of towniness, but staying with the same targets for too long does.

MacDougall wrote:

HamburgerBoy wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Bold statement time:

FZ. is the serial killer.

Votes going with the breeze, snappy rebuttals not to catch too much heat, somehow gets genuine marks from several people, unciv "I would let a dormant baddie be the last baddie standing, so I can then laugh at his so-called victory, if he achieves it this way" mindset.

It fits.

I'm definitely feeling a lot worse about her over this last day. I'll switch FZ, anyone else interested?

Sure I'll be happy to vote for a fourth candidate 21 minutes before deadline to really muddy the lynch up.

If Wilgy follows Rico's suggestion it will put FZ roughly on par with the others. "Muddying" lynches isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Ricochet wrote:Bold statement time:

FZ. is the serial killer.

Votes going with the breeze, snappy rebuttals not to catch too much heat, somehow gets genuine marks from several people, unciv "I would let a dormant baddie be the last baddie standing, so I can then laugh at his so-called victory, if he achieves it this way" mindset.

It fits.

I'm definitely feeling a lot worse about her over this last day. I'll switch FZ, anyone else interested?

Sorsha wrote: I can't wait until you finally find out you're wrong about me this game. Chalk up another player who can't read me.

Considering how the Jay/LoRab lynch played out yesterday, are you really surprised it isn't repeating itself exactly the same today? The reasons behind that rapidly building bandwagon were clear and the source of most argument the first half of 3.5. I had you as one of my strongest town reads during Talking Heads but I'm not getting the same positive vibes this game.

I realize I just posted my rainbow with MM in light green, but that was me getting lazy with rotating people around based on my previous rainbow. He's more of a solid/bordering-orange yellow for me, haven't seen anything compelling either way regarding him, but the fact that he's been around makes him look a little worse. I still think Sorsha and Dom are much more compelling targets.

Golden wrote:re whoever is wondering why lots of people voted lorab yesterday but not today...

It's because yesterday, lots of us were finding a consensus candidate to save jj.

I'll vote lorab to the same end of it comes to it, but I think mm is a good bet. He really is playing like dune mm.

Don't you find it incredibly suspicious that Sorsha would be the one to ask that when she (with your help) got the bandwagon rolling against LoRab yesterday?

Sup Wilgy, who are your three biggest suspects right now?

FZ. wrote:Even if that's true, I think that as bad as my words can sound, jumping on that for a vote is a whole lot more suspicious than what I said. Not to mention that as I said before, the fact I said that if JJJ is bad we should look at his voters didn't diminish the need to look at Lorab's voters in any way. I was just stating what I believe to be the less obvious conclusion.

Well, I don't agree with that at all. Waffling always sounds bad and if Draco was really busy, I could easily imagine a busy civvie seeing a post like that stick out and ping him. Also, Draco didn't even mention LoRab so that's a strawman you're now constructing; when he last checked in before the lynch, it was shaping up to be a Llama vs Jimmy.

New rainbow time!

Ricochet

golden
Draconus

Matt
MetalMarsh
SpaceDaisy/Bea
Boomslang
LoRab

juliets
Epignosis
Bass_the_Clever/motel room
nijuukyugou
thellama73

Long Con
Elohcin/FZ
DharmaHelper
DrWilgy
MacDougall
Black Rock
Tranq

JaggedJimmyJay
Sorsha

Dom

FZ. wrote:If he doesn't think JJJ is bad, than why would I be covering all bases?

His post has more to do with you than him. That it was JJJ mentioned seems irrelevant to his point; he's accusing you of making a safe post where you defend a player, and then simultaneously distance yourself by saying if he flips bad, that people should look for others bussing JJJ.

FZ. wrote:

Ricochet wrote:FZ, you've mentioned no suspicion of Draconus up until a few posts ago saying "you'd vote for him or MM". Am I missing something? Day 2, in fact, you've eyeballed Matt for claiming Draco faked his curse.

FIrst off, I'm allowed to change my mind. Second, I don't buy his vote. If he thinks I'm bad and was defending JJJ, why is he voting me and not JJJ who had more votes? I feel like he's preparing for after JJJ is lynched and flips civ.


linki: I'm saying that if I know he's bad, than that would be a reason to lynch him. When all I have is him not contributing anything, that's not enough to make me lynch him.

Where did Draconus say that?

I'd be happy to vote for Dom. While even Sorsha I can partially excuse for kick-starting the LoRab run yesterday (golden said it would be her or LoRab to save Jimmy; Sorsha's response was only natural self-preservation), Dom's been coasting and others more familiar with him than I have suspected him for his tone and kinda arbitrary votes. Why can't we do this?

idgi, what's the case on Draco? That he had relatively weaker cases on day 0 (duh, everyone does) and has been relatively inactive these last couple days?

In A World Reborn, timmer had his vote on SVS for only a couple minutes, but it allowed MM to nightkill him.

I'll switch back to Tranq too then. Worth noting that if he was silenced 3.0, that he hasn't voted yet could mean he doesn't even know he can talk now.

Matt wrote:Llama, are you and 3J in cahoots?

I've actually been feeling better about 3J but your last two posts defending him, somethin' feels off.

Like, it sounds as if 3J actually got a PM from the hosts telling him "yes you can roleclaim" and that you know about it, as opposed to 3J just seeing Turnip's post quoting the front page.

What do you mean "just seeing"? Turnip made that post just a couple posts prior to Jimmy's roleclaim. I don't see how it makes a difference if he sent a PM to the mods anyways for clarification.

Someone (maybe SVS?) said at the end of A World Reborn that it was their third time seeing angry/aggressive Dom as scum Dom, but at least based on that one game, he tended to get more aggressive only when under serious pressure, like day 1 which was a narrow three-way lynch, or towards the end of the game. Boomslang's basically just +1'd Rico's suspicions. Plus, since people have called him out on that, he may be conscious of his meta this game.

I don't think it's that obvious. He didn't explain his suspicions just now about JJJ defending FZ. His vote on JJJ 3.0 was relatively early and without much explanation either (just a "Then what the hell is this?"). He's been going with bandwagons pretty steadily now.

And for my own reason, in addition to the above, I've been suspicious since I read his day 0 posts, almost predicting that llama would become a suspect starting day 1. In general I just get non-townie vibes from him too.

So did I.