The Syndicate

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:40 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:34 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:31 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:28 pm Plus I didn't say you WERE Davos, you are clearly Davos aligned. You've consistently pushed mechanics that are not confirmed and we've been chain yeeting town because of it.
This reeks of more desperation than anything WWA has done. What exactly have you done to deal with Davos?
Ew, and you argue non objective feeling in response to a case that I think is very accurate. I've at least argued that we can be wrong on the slot, only WWA seemed to even want to entertain that idea.
Like what, your case on me is that I didn't do anything to lynch Davos when you haven't either? You also voted in your side for the last several days, only stopping because it would incriminate you. What am I supposed to say to that?

No, you've strictly put out information that encourages Davos to remain a factor. You've encouraged vig, poison, and that they are linked and we should find the owner, but never dealing with it outright or even trying to solve it. At least WWA and I have done that. I don't think I've seen a post of yours previously, that entertains the idea that we should just yeet the slot.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:38 pm Further, nutella voted WWA and was fairly suspicious of Wilgy. It's not like neither of you have motivation to kill nutella. Furthermore, it's not like wolves ever make strategical blunders, look at the D1 pyxxy bus for instance. The nutella kill wouldn't be smart from my point of view either, as I'd want to leave options in the other side open and killing in my side would make my worldview look more true. If Davos is a wolf though, the nutella kill would make some sense as if they can lynch the other person from the other side they'd have a good chance of winning; it would essentially be a gambit to ensure the elimination of the other wolf one way or another. Since Wilgy isn't really pushing WWA (although from your point of view you should!) it was probably WWA who killed nutella. That might make Wilgy the better vote however, for reasons I've already explained.

Chalking up a singular nk to a blunder is just incorrect to do so. If it was a blunder, WWA doesn't make it and neither do I. Killing in your side does keep your worldview in tact, BUT it also doesn't actively remove a player from the pool who was in opposition to that worldview. WWA can still be a wolf as I advised earlier, but I'm not going to yeet strictly on that being the case when both Davos continues to remain unsolved and we are incorrectly building our solve on unconfirmed mechanics.

WWA killed Nutella, yeets me, then what? What is WWA's angle going forward from there?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 7:51 pm If Davos is a viable lunch option I would definitely include them in the PoE, fwiw
Right now I believe it's Wilgy/Delta if Davos is not a separate player, but if Davos is separate then I think they can be one of the wolves

Idk why I typed this post and never actually hit send lol, sorry

Why would Delta hit Nutella instead of Sig/Epi?

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:31 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:28 pm Plus I didn't say you WERE Davos, you are clearly Davos aligned. You've consistently pushed mechanics that are not confirmed and we've been chain yeeting town because of it.
This reeks of more desperation than anything WWA has done. What exactly have you done to deal with Davos?

Ew, and you argue non objective feeling in response to a case that I think is very accurate. I've at least argued that we can be wrong on the slot, only WWA seemed to even want to entertain that idea.

Plus I didn't say you WERE Davos, you are clearly Davos aligned. You've consistently pushed mechanics that are not confirmed and we've been chain yeeting town because of it.

leetic wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:15 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:10 pm The only players who'd kill Nutella are Epi/Leetic. Leetic has been pretty much the most vocal on both chain yeeting WWA and I, and that Davos should be ignored.

Davos - Leetic aligned. Leetic keeps suggesting we take alternative routes to solving this and keeps treating this slot with confidence that it can be solved this way.

Delta - would be incriminated, much more likely to make a kill on west that removes detractors.

Epi - COULD make the kill, but killing Nutella and then not focusing on WWA doesn't make sense. W Epi could in fact choose to not take the path of least resistance, but I probably just lose to that. (also took the lingerie, I wanted that.)

Leetic - WOULD have made the kill. Went from suspecting MR as remaining arbiter, to voting me in contrary to suspicion on MR, and only really moving back to MR on the justification of self voting. Nutella and MR both were the east side players that were vocal on that the PoE being east was incorrect. Leetic's play keeps us constrained to the East PoE and has consistently ignored/minimized Davos. (also they grabbed the weapon option provided today, which is probably minor but i don't like it anyways.)

Sig - Has no reason to make the kill. Was already advocating suspicion on both threads, so hitting Nutella doesn't really advance that at all and removes someone who never really advocated against them.

WWA - would be incriminated, can still be wolf but didn't make the Nutella kill.
Me being Davos is flat-out impossible, as Cape90 was the only player who could see both threads. Your case kinda falls apart there.

Are we just going to pretend that there weren't wolf elements in both threads simultaneously?

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:03 pm And I understand that you guys will have to vote me out, as well as Wilgy, in whatever order you want. It doesn't matter. There is no way you should let the two of us live to endgame at this point.
But you are going to have a very hard time sniffing out the last wolf once both Wilgy and I have flipped, and I just hope you can pull through.

Do you actually think we have the room for this?

The only players who'd kill Nutella are Epi/Leetic. Leetic has been pretty much the most vocal on both chain yeeting WWA and I, and that Davos should be ignored.

Davos - Leetic aligned. Leetic keeps suggesting we take alternative routes to solving this and keeps treating this slot with confidence that it can be solved this way.

Delta - would be incriminated, much more likely to make a kill on west that removes detractors.

Epi - COULD make the kill, but killing Nutella and then not focusing on WWA doesn't make sense. W Epi could in fact choose to not take the path of least resistance, but I probably just lose to that. (also took the lingerie, I wanted that.)

Leetic - WOULD have made the kill. Went from suspecting MR as remaining arbiter, to voting me in contrary to suspicion on MR, and only really moving back to MR on the justification of self voting. Nutella and MR both were the east side players that were vocal on that the PoE being east was incorrect. Leetic's play keeps us constrained to the East PoE and has consistently ignored/minimized Davos. (also they grabbed the weapon option provided today, which is probably minor but i don't like it anyways.)

Sig - Has no reason to make the kill. Was already advocating suspicion on both threads, so hitting Nutella doesn't really advance that at all and removes someone who never really advocated against them.

WWA - would be incriminated, can still be wolf but didn't make the Nutella kill.

Good hello,

Been skimming and my general thoughts can be summarized as: [VOTE: Leetic] aubergine

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:33 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:30 pm I dunno, if your thoughts are 'my facility has all the wolves' you're sat with a much narrower POE and should be able to navigate it over offering yourself, which would then give the opposite impression to 'wolves are all in this facility'
When I said that, I just assumed if my facility has all the wolves and we yeet all of the people in my facility, including me, we are guaranteed a win.

I don't particularly like entertaining paranoia about the West facility but I also don't want to be the one who loses us the game by insisting that we yeet everyone in East including myself.

So idk anymore.

This is pretty much my thoughts as well.

Just based on MR responding today, I think my suspicion crumbles if we aren't POE'd to East and that has me very worried.

And I guess fungus crossed on Davos not being an actual player we need to deal with.

I don't have much time left this evening for in depth reading/responding but I should be around.

If remaining wolves are in East, MR is the best yeet.

If not, I'd be fine with a Delta vote.

I think I'm at MR=Delta>Nutella=Leetic>WWA.

"*genuine in thought.

Not just a means to expand the PoE"

Incomplete thought.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:21 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:17 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:16 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm Why would I need to preface any statement? Am I not allowed to think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and still post my thoughts anyway?
You are allowed and I'd encourage it, but my question is if you think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' why not say it before hand?

if you are a W, you just get a chance at someone not thinking 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and only need to post after if you do get heat for it. 'Why attract attention to myself' kinda thinking.
You say 'why not say it before hand' like it's some sort of 'gotcha' and I think it's just a style difference or soemthing. I just don't see why I'd need to say it?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm The wagon was a whole three (3) votes. You really think that can't be three town?

And anyway, there are two mafia teams, remember? Two of the mafia wouldn't have known or cared if Lime was on the other team and wouldn't care about positioning in the same way. Lime's one possible teammate wouldn't be able to singlehandedly bolster a counterwagon to save their mate.
Three CAN be town, but those three are including Alison. When it becomes four (including vote recipient) and EVERY other off wagon vote is town it just becomes less likely, ESPECIALLY when a wolf flip occurs.
But, again, we're talking about a wolf team of two, since the other wolf team won't care or worry about the same voting dynamics. Lime was going down - their one single partner is probably more likely to bus and hope for some credit rather than risk being seen as trying to save their partner.

These just feel like weak reasons to find me suspicious, and I'm not saying that makes you scummy because actually if you're town you would be scrounging for reasons to paint me scummy. But you seem to have a lot of conviction it's me for reasoning like this and the reasoning isn't solid imo.
Aye, there is a lot of conviction, but that's because I've only had good results following clear cut wagonomics lines like these, especially when there's 1-2 wolves hiding within them.

I kinda hate that expanding the PoE feels correct, because it also makes me think that my observation of the wagonomics can be wrong.

I also kinda hate expanding the PoE because that's the exact thing that made us lose severance.

But, with you and Nut advocating for it and Nook was also still casing West while alive, the question of "is it more likely that it's just MR/Nut, or DOES the PoE need to actually grow?" becomes very difficult.
I mean, Nook's PoE consisted of Nutella and you, and then whoever voted Porscha in West, but idk if I'd treat those as godreads. He did have some correct calls but I don't necessarily think he was correct on absolutely everything.
It's possible he knew something else was up with West and he just couldn't claim it, but I kinda doubt that since he was just making a broad sweep on the basis that Porscha was locktown (and he said as much in East thread, too, when the threads were still split and we didn't know Porscha had flipped or was going to flip)

Aye, I'm not saying it's a godread or a smoking gun, but it established the precedent for wolves in West as possible to be genuine.

Now, I will say Nook is very good at mafia. Much like with the treatment of Lemon, I've seen Nook just be correct in these situations. I mean, Nook was one of the few players that could read me consistently for awhile too.

FWIW I think last time I saw Delta play like this they were 3p.

Very 3p rangey rn I think.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:16 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm Why would I need to preface any statement? Am I not allowed to think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and still post my thoughts anyway?
You are allowed and I'd encourage it, but my question is if you think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' why not say it before hand?

if you are a W, you just get a chance at someone not thinking 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and only need to post after if you do get heat for it. 'Why attract attention to myself' kinda thinking.
You say 'why not say it before hand' like it's some sort of 'gotcha' and I think it's just a style difference or soemthing. I just don't see why I'd need to say it?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:11 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm The wagon was a whole three (3) votes. You really think that can't be three town?

And anyway, there are two mafia teams, remember? Two of the mafia wouldn't have known or cared if Lime was on the other team and wouldn't care about positioning in the same way. Lime's one possible teammate wouldn't be able to singlehandedly bolster a counterwagon to save their mate.
Three CAN be town, but those three are including Alison. When it becomes four (including vote recipient) and EVERY other off wagon vote is town it just becomes less likely, ESPECIALLY when a wolf flip occurs.
But, again, we're talking about a wolf team of two, since the other wolf team won't care or worry about the same voting dynamics. Lime was going down - their one single partner is probably more likely to bus and hope for some credit rather than risk being seen as trying to save their partner.

These just feel like weak reasons to find me suspicious, and I'm not saying that makes you scummy because actually if you're town you would be scrounging for reasons to paint me scummy. But you seem to have a lot of conviction it's me for reasoning like this and the reasoning isn't solid imo.

Aye, there is a lot of conviction, but that's because I've only had good results following clear cut wagonomics lines like these, especially when there's 1-2 wolves hiding within them.

I kinda hate that expanding the PoE feels correct, because it also makes me think that my observation of the wagonomics can be wrong.

I also kinda hate expanding the PoE because that's the exact thing that made us lose severance.

But, with you and Nut advocating for it and Nook was also still casing West while alive, the question of "is it more likely that it's just MR/Nut, or DOES the PoE need to actually grow?" becomes very difficult.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:09 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:03 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:48 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?
Yeah but Nutella is still voting me, not you
Yeah, but Nut coming into the thread stating the suspicion without any other data was still weird following the Nook/Wilgy Preflip.

Nut went from 1 and 1 in Nook/Wilgy to I guess it's just Wilgy/Radish without much else and in spite of how little both of these make.
Nook was trying to eat LemonFairy for two cycles and Falc had forgotten them, thus were likely only landlord.
I'm probably self viewing myself incorrectly, but with my interactions with Falc, I'd think that the Wilgy Arbiter theory to be thin, thus I'm likely only landlord as well.

Radish for the same reason, and what I put previous, is likely not an Arbiter.

So Nut's preflipping and suspicions are like, Landlord, Landlord, Landlord and that's why it doesn't make sense.
Ah, I see what you mean now.
But wasn't I doing the same thing? I'm pretty sure I also said I thought Radishes/you were the inner PoE, and by your logic that would also mean that I'd be pointing at two potential landlord candidates. Granted, I actually doubt it's both of you now, and I'm not even sure if it's one of you or neither. But I came into the day operating off straight PoE without thinking too critically about who was most likely on whose team.

I think it's more so that Nut had the weird preflipping.

You're inner PoE read like an inner PoE without much more. Nut's was very strict in description and that made it weird, THEN they moved to another unlikely pairing.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:04 pm What I'm struggling with is the fact that in a vacuum I'd much rather vote Delta or Sig or even TSP or Epi, but I'm instead supposed to focus on a PoE of 3 others whom I largely find nothing wrong with.

SO, if we expand the PoE, who and why?

Delta I kinda get.

Sig I still think is town in spite of certain thread entrances made today.

Epi based on Falc/DM treatment I had an eye raised for but nothing more as this does feel like town Epi.

I'll even toss Leetic in there as Leetic's vote on me following what looks like busywork came off as really off to me (I acknowlege that there's a large bit of omgussy bias in here, but after several unexplained suspicions of me, I think my omgussy bias is at least not worth throwing away immediately.)

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm Why would I need to preface any statement? Am I not allowed to think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and still post my thoughts anyway?

You are allowed and I'd encourage it, but my question is if you think 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' why not say it before hand?

if you are a W, you just get a chance at someone not thinking 'ugh someone is going to find this questionable' and only need to post after if you do get heat for it. 'Why attract attention to myself' kinda thinking.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm The wagon was a whole three (3) votes. You really think that can't be three town?

And anyway, there are two mafia teams, remember? Two of the mafia wouldn't have known or cared if Lime was on the other team and wouldn't care about positioning in the same way. Lime's one possible teammate wouldn't be able to singlehandedly bolster a counterwagon to save their mate.

Three CAN be town, but those three are including Alison. When it becomes four (including vote recipient) and EVERY other off wagon vote is town it just becomes less likely, ESPECIALLY when a wolf flip occurs.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:02 pm I mean you're not interacting with me either. And regardless, so what? I don't tend to care about interacting with someone I suspect because it's not really their opinion I'm interested in (beyond clarification of intentions and such) - it's other peoples' opinions I care about.

I do think I've put out enough feelers, this is kinda the first real back and forth we've had though, so fair.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:01 pm Also, what makes me unlikely to be a landlord? I don't think I've done anything to clear myself in that regard, other than that one reply I got from Brad, but Nutella thinks it makes me look more partnered. Meaning, there's nothing clearing there.

The timing of your Brad vote would need to be an absolutely brutal bus vote.

Nut's is only alittle less brutal.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:59 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:58 pm
Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:46 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?
I'm here if you want to get a back and forth going, I'm going through past games of the current wolf flips o/

which is pretty boring ;_; but at the very least I want to have a table of 'arbiter/landlords' and try work off that.

Evenings are my main opportunity to sit down and go through things so I'm lagging behind regardless, so some livetime solving would be great for me too \o/
I mean, I keep trying to throw it out there and discuss how my brain is working around the MR suspicion I have, do you have thoughts there?

In terms of thread PoE we have WWA, Nut, MR.

While I don't think MR could be an Arbiter I do think there's a high chance for Landlord based on polling.

I haven't explored WWA's likelyhood for Arbiter, but have seen others express that there's a firm possibility. WWA doesn't make sense as a Landlord.

I haven't explored Nutella's likelyhood for Arbiter, nor have I really seen others express it, so I'd almost write it off. Nutella has higher equity as landlord, but I still think it's unlikely. What keeps me circling back to Nutella is the weird preflipping done and Nook's read of the slot.

So,
Arbiters: WWA, Nut
LL: MR
Huh, if anything I would've written off Nut as an arbiter. I don't think she would've been so insistent on townreading falcon and then push me for pushing her based on that, if she were teamed with falcon. Plus she had fairly consistent suspicion on Lemon.

That's the exact thing I'm saying. I don't think Nut is an arbiter, if there was a chance for it, I'm sure I'd have seen others express it.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:48 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?
Yeah but Nutella is still voting me, not you

Yeah, but Nut coming into the thread stating the suspicion without any other data was still weird following the Nook/Wilgy Preflip.

Nut went from 1 and 1 in Nook/Wilgy to I guess it's just Wilgy/Radish without much else and in spite of how little both of these make.
Nook was trying to eat LemonFairy for two cycles and Falc had forgotten them, thus were likely only landlord.
I'm probably self viewing myself incorrectly, but with my interactions with Falc, I'd think that the Wilgy Arbiter theory to be thin, thus I'm likely only landlord as well.

Radish for the same reason, and what I put previous, is likely not an Arbiter.

So Nut's preflipping and suspicions are like, Landlord, Landlord, Landlord and that's why it doesn't make sense.

Delta wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:46 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:43 pm Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?
I'm here if you want to get a back and forth going, I'm going through past games of the current wolf flips o/

which is pretty boring ;_; but at the very least I want to have a table of 'arbiter/landlords' and try work off that.

Evenings are my main opportunity to sit down and go through things so I'm lagging behind regardless, so some livetime solving would be great for me too \o/

I mean, I keep trying to throw it out there and discuss how my brain is working around the MR suspicion I have, do you have thoughts there?

In terms of thread PoE we have WWA, Nut, MR.

While I don't think MR could be an Arbiter I do think there's a high chance for Landlord based on polling.

I haven't explored WWA's likelyhood for Arbiter, but have seen others express that there's a firm possibility. WWA doesn't make sense as a Landlord.

I haven't explored Nutella's likelyhood for Arbiter, nor have I really seen others express it, so I'd almost write it off. Nutella has higher equity as landlord, but I still think it's unlikely. What keeps me circling back to Nutella is the weird preflipping done and Nook's read of the slot.

So,
Arbiters: WWA, Nut
LL: MR

At least WWA gave reason when they expressed it being in PoE based on Brad's list. That's better.

Nut, Leetic, Sig, MR have all expressed 'I guess W just has to be Wilgy' without anything else.

Hell, MR who's likely the wolf with reasons I've put out that no one will even question or interact with for some reason, has barely interacted with me and has decided to just take the omgus route following me pushing him.

It really just leaves me asking, is yeeting me just easy and that's why it's preferable?

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:23 pm couldn't look into it too deeply but they seem like they have the highest chance of flipping wolf right now.

There's another one.

The hell is with this game?

bleh, I'm not getting anywhere different. I'm gonna iso Nut and WWA now.

Brad had at least 1 wolf in Lemonfairy,

Alison was civ, had 2 other civ votes and MR

ALL other off wagon votes were thrown by town with the exception of Davos on Nut.

SO, were ALL mafia on just Brad in a nice little clump?

AND since I'm kinda just brain vomitting, I do keep asking myself 'what if the Alison cw was pure' and I keep getting back to 'it wasn't'

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:45 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:45 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:41 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:36 pm Are we sure there aren't more wolves from the West?

Like from a design standpoint I see the symmetry but it does feel a bit of an advantage to town to have things so evenly split for situations exactly like this. It creates an artifical PoE.
I think we have abit of time before we really need to ask this question.

Unless we think there was 5/5 or 4/5 but that seems skewed given the player count and multiple 3ps.
This is the kind of take that gets me in trouble but it really feels like we're saying "hey, don't look at me or my thread anymore." When that is still just the correct thing to do numbers wise.

Had we kept to the correct assumed numbers in severance we would've hit W Rondo.
Yes I knew that's how my post would be read and I posted it anyway.

and like, I think I've stated all the things that ping me about your slot so far so I keep pushing myself in circles going deeper into my bias.

But like, why didn't you preface your statement with this if you knew it already? Were we hoping it wouldn't be brought up and waited to see?

[VOTE: MR] aubergine

I still haven't fully dove into Nutella/WWA and I need to.

Between them, the desire to vote for Nook's legacy is real, but I also don't know how I feel about TSP just kinda voting there without much else. TSP's vote's have been questionable at best until I know if I'm correct on MR or not.

Also the paranoia from the counts being wrong I get from Nut, but not so much from MR, especially the self vote.

They were at each other until the numbers thing popped up, Sig dropped in with suspicion on 3/4 choices and Delta's like 'hold me to catching up' and I'm like 'how'? and then they haven't had anything since.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:53 pm delta's mafia tbh ngl imo btw

fwiw sig and delta have both been weird and vacant today tbh imo ngl btw afaik

Do we know if Davis is "owned"?

The game Davos comes from players and their socks were one in the same.

Scrappy was owned by an external player in their original game.

Does any of Delta, Epi, Sig or TSP come off wolfy enough to be put on PoE where numbers continue to make sense (with the exception of Davos)?

Let's break it down then

PoE is me, MR, Nut, WWA, Davos?

Out of PoE is Delt, Epi, Sig, TSP.

If we assume this PoE is correct based on split threads, 2 nks a night and 2 yeets leaves 3 vote-able slots remaining which would be a normal lylo situation.

Davos being an unknown makes this awkward.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:46 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:45 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:42 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:36 pm Are we sure there aren't more wolves from the West?

Like from a design standpoint I see the symmetry but it does feel a bit of an advantage to town to have things so evenly split for situations exactly like this. It creates an artifical PoE.
Unless we somehow flip an extra 3p on our side of the thread, I wouldn't be pressed to consider that the mafia count is skewed.
I mean if we want to bank the game on a PoE of 4, then let's kill us all off one at a time. Hard to predict how the numbers will work out, but if you're that confident then it should be fine.
That's exactly what I'm suggesting, yeah. Kill off our side of the game and probably all the wolves are dead and town wins.

This is the way

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:41 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:36 pm Are we sure there aren't more wolves from the West?

Like from a design standpoint I see the symmetry but it does feel a bit of an advantage to town to have things so evenly split for situations exactly like this. It creates an artifical PoE.
I think we have abit of time before we really need to ask this question.

Unless we think there was 5/5 or 4/5 but that seems skewed given the player count and multiple 3ps.

This is the kind of take that gets me in trouble but it really feels like we're saying "hey, don't look at me or my thread anymore." When that is still just the correct thing to do numbers wise.

Had we kept to the correct assumed numbers in severance we would've hit W Rondo.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:36 pm Are we sure there aren't more wolves from the West?

Like from a design standpoint I see the symmetry but it does feel a bit of an advantage to town to have things so evenly split for situations exactly like this. It creates an artifical PoE.

I think we have abit of time before we really need to ask this question.

Unless we think there was 5/5 or 4/5 but that seems skewed given the player count and multiple 3ps.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:34 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:32 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:28 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:27 pm Nutella feels town. I don't have any good reason to say this definitively, she just feels it. That's not good enough for this stage of the game but it's the thought that is at the forefront of my mind.
Ok
I'm pretty sure there ARE solid reasons to definitely say she's towny, but maybe that's just me
I'm pretty sure Nook hard disagree'd with this take based on legacy.

I should review and see if it's valid, but the Nook legacy seems strong, especially as they were just correct on Lemon for 2 cycles earlier.
Lots of us were iffy on Lemon.

Didn't Nanook also scumread Dizzy?

Legacies aren't worth much tbh. It's not like mafia killed him for what he was saying.

Idk, Nooks seemed important and hits different, they had a really good vote record that was observable even before he went over.

I think I brought it up earlier, but Nut's perspective on Nook and I was kinda weird.

Though, I don't think Nut is a landlord. Nut putting Brad back up to +3 and advocating for it would've needed to be a brutal bussing as their vote planted the metaphorical shovel.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:28 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:27 pm Nutella feels town. I don't have any good reason to say this definitively, she just feels it. That's not good enough for this stage of the game but it's the thought that is at the forefront of my mind.
Ok
I'm pretty sure there ARE solid reasons to definitely say she's towny, but maybe that's just me

I'm pretty sure Nook hard disagree'd with this take based on legacy.

I should review and see if it's valid, but the Nook legacy seems strong, especially as they were just correct on Lemon for 2 cycles earlier.

D3

DarlingMonroe
Voters: Falcon45ca, Master Radishes, TonyStarkPrime, Epignosis, Sloonei, Lemonfairy

Delta
Voters: nutella

DrWilgy
Voters: Cape90

Falcon45ca
Voters: ☆Princess Abigail☆, sig, Delta, WindwardAway, Ricochet, Long Con, leetic, DarlingMonroe, DrWilgy

leetic
Voters: Dyslexicon

Lemonfairy
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Davos

D4

Cape90
Voters: Master Radishes, Sloonei, Long Con, nutella, Epignosis, WindwardAway

DarlingMonroe
Voters: Lemonfairy

Delta
Voters: sig

Dyslexicon
Voters: Cape90

leetic
Voters: Dyslexicon

Lemonfairy
Voters: DarlingMonroe, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Master Radishes
Voters: DrWilgy, TonyStarkPrime

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Voters: leetic

sig
Voters: Delta

Sloonei
Voters: Ricochet, Davos

D5

DrWilgy
Voters: TonyStarkPrime

Epignosis
Voters: Sloonei

Master Radishes
Voters: DrWilgy

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Voters: Master Radishes, Epignosis, nutella, WindwardAway, Long Con, leetic

nutella
Voters: NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:30 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:14 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:40 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:20 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:34 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:24 pm 4 have chimed in saying it's likely me without saying why lol.

Feels arbitrary and a repeat of Nook's yeet.
I'm actually not 100% sold on it being you. I'm still working through it.

It's primarily a PoE narrowing but I think you're a potential Landlord because Brad never mentioned or interacted with you at all. imo you're a little less likely to be an Arbiter based on falcon treatment but i haven't gone through Rico's or Lemon's ISOs yet, and I think Lemon's will be the most relevant to look through because she was also in East facility.

I'm not married to this take and I'm happy to discuss stuff with you to see if I reach a different conclusion. I feel like I didn't give Nook enough of a chance in terms of that, like I interacted with him toward eod but not enough before that, and I think that mightve made a difference in my level of confidence on him.

I guess if we have to just yeet the players that had minimal Brad interaction, that's fine, but I'm finding it very strange that you still tr MR's interactions with Brad in spite of the day 1 poll, MR being the only non villager element on the villager cw.

It just feels bad to me.
I suppose it's because Windy is better than you at reading associations.

It was a CW of like..3 votes? Brad was obviously going down. A wolf partner is far more likely to bus than try to prop up a counterwagon on their lonesome.
I'll double check, but I remember thinking that you're joining the cw wasn't at a point where it was firm for Brad going down like 3 to 5?

If there was actually no momentum shift, then I'll probably need to reread.
I don't remember specifically, but I just remember thinking Brad was the likely elim and I went for creating a counterwagon for reasons of science and such.

Went through, your vote seems to be what enabled a cw to exist. It was 3-5 when you voted based on Aubergines and Michelle's vote count copy put into the thread.

It's also not like your vote had no momentum, it seemed to be in direct opposition to WWA putting brad at +3 taking Brad back down to +2 within the same hour.

this exercise just makes me feel worse about the Nook yeet lol

I've been reviewing Brad's list and the players chosen/not chosen as that seems to be a crux on WWA and Nut's reads.

Was in on the list:

player/post count placement/alignment/interaction level
Michelle 4 - t - interacted with
WWA 1 - ? - was around with
LF 12 - W - was around with
Nut 3 - ? - was around with
DM 13 - t - interacted with
Rondo 8 - t - interacted with
Cape 7 - 3p - interacted with

Was not on the list but was in thread at the same time as Brad:

MR 9 - ? - Interacted with
Creature 5 - t - Interacted with
Me 12 - t - was around with
Sabi 2 - t - was around with
Alison 11 - t - was around with
Dizzy 10 - t - Interacted with

Was not on the list nor was in the thread at the same time as Brad:

Nook - t - 14
Davos - ? - 16

All things considered, it really seems quite arbitrary as levels of interaction/thread visibility are spread rather evenly.

Sabi who was rather active, didn't get interacted with or put on the list.
Nook/Davos seems like they were forgotten about entirely.

Brad did prefer more active players and players who were more active in the thread at this time who they interacted with with outliers to this rule being Nut/WWA. The fact that MR was interacted with but wasn't put on the list is of note, but I can't tell if it's the same behavior as seen with Dizzy/Creature who both had varying levels of activity.

Without knowing Brad's spew/antispew patterns, I think it boils down to the WIFOM of 'would the teammate be included or not'

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:40 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:20 pm
WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:34 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:24 pm 4 have chimed in saying it's likely me without saying why lol.

Feels arbitrary and a repeat of Nook's yeet.
I'm actually not 100% sold on it being you. I'm still working through it.

It's primarily a PoE narrowing but I think you're a potential Landlord because Brad never mentioned or interacted with you at all. imo you're a little less likely to be an Arbiter based on falcon treatment but i haven't gone through Rico's or Lemon's ISOs yet, and I think Lemon's will be the most relevant to look through because she was also in East facility.

I'm not married to this take and I'm happy to discuss stuff with you to see if I reach a different conclusion. I feel like I didn't give Nook enough of a chance in terms of that, like I interacted with him toward eod but not enough before that, and I think that mightve made a difference in my level of confidence on him.

I guess if we have to just yeet the players that had minimal Brad interaction, that's fine, but I'm finding it very strange that you still tr MR's interactions with Brad in spite of the day 1 poll, MR being the only non villager element on the villager cw.

It just feels bad to me.
I suppose it's because Windy is better than you at reading associations.

It was a CW of like..3 votes? Brad was obviously going down. A wolf partner is far more likely to bus than try to prop up a counterwagon on their lonesome.

I'll double check, but I remember thinking that you're joining the cw wasn't at a point where it was firm for Brad going down like 3 to 5?

If there was actually no momentum shift, then I'll probably need to reread.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:34 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:24 pm 4 have chimed in saying it's likely me without saying why lol.

Feels arbitrary and a repeat of Nook's yeet.
I'm actually not 100% sold on it being you. I'm still working through it.

It's primarily a PoE narrowing but I think you're a potential Landlord because Brad never mentioned or interacted with you at all. imo you're a little less likely to be an Arbiter based on falcon treatment but i haven't gone through Rico's or Lemon's ISOs yet, and I think Lemon's will be the most relevant to look through because she was also in East facility.

I'm not married to this take and I'm happy to discuss stuff with you to see if I reach a different conclusion. I feel like I didn't give Nook enough of a chance in terms of that, like I interacted with him toward eod but not enough before that, and I think that mightve made a difference in my level of confidence on him.

I guess if we have to just yeet the players that had minimal Brad interaction, that's fine, but I'm finding it very strange that you still tr MR's interactions with Brad in spite of the day 1 poll, MR being the only non villager element on the villager cw.

It just feels bad to me.

WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:29 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:21 pm [VOTE: The Moon] aubergine
Uh you might wanna pick another card cause I claimed this one already
It's not updated in the OP yet

Mmm... Thank you.

@Scotty @S~V~S [VOTE: The Emperor] aubergine

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:21 pm [VOTE: The Moon] aubergine

@Scotty @S~V~S

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