The Syndicate

oic.

[VOTE: Lucy] aubergine

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:13 pm I'm not going to vote yet, I'll wait and give other players a look (namely DrWilgy).

If anyone else has a candidate for wolf they think is more likely than lucy, or have reason to believe lucy is town, please share it.

Sabi: Unlikely to be wolf. I feel that their read on my slot is somewhat lazy, but still understandable.

Pyxxy: 2nd slot in PoE. Their solving process makes sense, but the Sabi vote last cycle, plus the opinions on me are questionable. I just don't know if Pyxxy is like "behold my power" and a wolf at the same time.

Marmot: brother, if you are a wolf after 1v1 ing with Neon, good game. Well done. You deserve it.

Lucy: Nothing to prove they aren't wolf. PoE 1 and likely just needs to be clipped.

So, I feel off about this as normally I find statements such as the following to be anti-town in behavior as they aren't conclusive to solving and are based on very biased opinions (for example Sabi's I'm not in my wolf range.)

BUT, I think it would again, almost be irresponsible to not add this perspective considering 1 bad vote can cause a tie.

I am not wolf for these points:
1. Go through Mac's ISO. They put way too much energy into buttering me up. You'd think he'd just buy me a drink before trying to shove me into his pocket so hard. I even called him out on this.

2. The NK's are very much against my interest. Dennis, SVS were both town leaning me. Seanzie I would've tried to use to posture a Pyxxy vote. I 100% would've killed Sabi last night.

Like I said, I know me pointing these out takes weight away from the argument, BUT I think it was imperative prior to the double vote being used.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:03 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:58 pm Game is just such low energy tho.

I expect 400 more posts from you before EOD.

Yes captai

Game is just such low energy tho.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:55 pm I'm tempted to just lock a vote in on lucy.

I know she's burnt out and that's contributed to her activity this game, but she also defended both Mac and Neon and it's not a stretch at all to call her a possible teammate.

I mean, just to get this day over with, we could hammer and move onto the next.

But I think if we are wrong that might decline us some data.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:53 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:52 pm Did anyone ever say who shot the extra shot?

pyxxy claimed it yesterday.

Ah. I see.

I missed this during my skim.

Did anyone ever say who shot the extra shot?

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:50 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:49 pmuwu

Post #30,000 hype!!!

Nice

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:46 pm w!Sabi wouldn't kill Sean imo. They had essentially the same vote record, and if Sabi was going to lylo, they'd want Sean around as well, and Sean was never going to chop them.

This makes sense.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:45 pm You have pushed a half assed tinfoil on me that isn't even accurate. I'm out of my wolf range

How is it not accurate? I've seen you take credit sinking the Mac ship before as his teammate specifically? Maybe there wasn't as much gusto (and that is honestly why I've been holding back on the listening to tinfoil), but I still think it's a valid thought process to explore and deduce from.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:45 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:25 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:31 pm oh also uh I dug up the double vote last night so I've got 2x vote power today

any chance that someone used the cop check last night and we can clear another person besides Sabi?

So in the situation where you are wolf, you can pretty much always cause a tie if town isn't unanimous.

Don't like that.

Does wolf Pyxxy just lie here? Does wolf Pyxxy state this?

Maybe not. Idk this makes me think it's just gotta be Lucy.

The mechanically optimal play is to chop pyxxy today if they're POE, because if we don't and the is a wolf, he can do exactly what you say, guarantee at least a tied vote in LYLO and a 50/50 chance at a W.


From my POV, I just don't know if he's quite that POE.

I don't think the ability can be carried over. @Scotty clarification plz?

If so, maybe we just ignore the power altogether.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:45 pm You didn't eve. Vote wolf once

True.

Why is that? Why wouldn't I have taken the easy obvious bus on Neon?

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:43 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:10 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:02 pm It's either Wilgz or Lucy

@Marmot @pyxxy

Who to go firat

Sabi, how is it possibly me?

You didn't vote wolf twice

K. Technically you were the only one who did.

Is pure vote weight how you solve me? You should know better on my slot.

@lucy, where's your head at.
If we are wrong about you, why? Who's taking advantage of it?

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:31 pm oh also uh I dug up the double vote last night so I've got 2x vote power today

any chance that someone used the cop check last night and we can clear another person besides Sabi?

So in the situation where you are wolf, you can pretty much always cause a tie if town isn't unanimous.

Don't like that.

Does wolf Pyxxy just lie here? Does wolf Pyxxy state this?

Maybe not. Idk this makes me think it's just gotta be Lucy.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:29 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:16 pm

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:12 pm @Sabiplz sorry about voting for you. I really did think it was TvT. Hadn't seen scum Neon before and she has always complained about being misyeeted often for her playstyle so I guess I bought it. Now I will yeet town Neon without regrets forever o7

Your saw her wolf in webdip

I did?

I'm pretty sure I have a very vivid memory of Neon and Sabi discussing T Pyxxy in our wolf chat in Hot Fuzz.

Like, I have a VERY minor theory that Pyxxy voted Sabi to encourage me acting up on my tinfoil, and enable a save.

Idk how I'd apply more read data to that one.

It hasn't evolved, it hasn't had any real defined read data, it's been throwing shit at the wall and hoping it's correct.

Like fr, what quantified analysis points you in the direction that it's me?

I've felt that this game, you've had a gut read of "I've got the Wilgy tell" and that's just been perpetual.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:02 pm It's either Wilgz or Lucy

@Marmot @pyxxy

Who to go firat

Sabi, how is it possibly me?

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:54 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:49 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:46 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:40 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:35 pm She has defended both Mac and Neon, so a Mac/lucy/neon team is not far-fetched at all.

this is a good lv1 team. I think.

I still intend on going through Mac's iso specifically but this is a team I can see. If I'm wrong about a slot and W are not in [Lucy, Neon] then I think there's likely one in Marmot, but I have NO clue who the teammate is. Pyxxy maybe? You've been soft defending them quite abit this game.

Was this a POE you came to on your own, or were you sheeping mine?

Both? It's a logical conclusion I feel. Neon has enough scum weight and Lucy did defend the slot.

If I'm wrong on a read it really would just be you. Like, unless Mac was all in on the 'bus me bois' but, again, future me problem.

you're going to say "look here's my PoE" but this is very explicitly walking around claiming it as your own

you're all like "dang wow we have the same PoE" but that puts all the blame on Marmot if you're wrong about Neon

you're happy to shade Sabi

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:20 pm And maybe it's the fact that I've seen them do this exact play before, so I'm looking for it, but I really do feel Mac told Sabi to bus them. The tempo then changed when he decided to vote for Dennis and that's when he went into a chaos state.

yet they're not in your PoE?

Why not?

Aye, yeah because that's the conclusion I can to as well at just about the same time.

Feel like this point would be moot if I wasn't willing to claim it as my own, so where's the argument weight "that I could blame Marmot" come from?

How do I go "but you disregard MY PoE" if my intention was to eventually go "but it's Marmots PoE"? The argument just doesn't make sense.

Not really.

I can acknowledge that my Sabi read is 100% tinfoil fear based on Misplay Mafia (that wolf theater inspired true fear). It makes me want to tip toe there because I can see the situation where I'm getting got. By going "look it" perhaps the chance of getting got is decreased.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:41 pm like did you forget to hit post on a draft or something

This just feels ungenuine. The implication here is that by making a post like this you are already convinced that I'm Neon's teammate, but you don't outright say it.

Thoughts:
D1 wagonomics are still off due to the missing votes. I suggested that the falcon wagon couldn't be pure and Mac encouraged that, makes me think that it could actually just be pure. Poor Falcs. Raises the question of if the voters on me was pure. Likely Pyxxy containing wolf if it's between Marmot Pyxxy.

D2 Mac I think joined Neon and Lucy, then after Marmot joined the Dennis? Rough look for Marmot I think, but I'd need to validate that. Does Mac join a wagon with 2 other teammates on it? He was pretty open in discussion with Neon, so maybe. I'd need to check the timing on Pyxy and Sabi's votes. (if I can get other opinions/or if you know the sequence of events for this day, that'd be helpful.)

D3 Neon wagon seems pure.

Conclusions:
Think the wolf just has to be in Pyxxy/Lucy.

Mainly on ask, 'Would W!Marmot cross with W!Neon when easier alternatives in Lucy/Wilgy exist?' Maybe, but that's a hard gamble. Plus there was the post Marmot made towards Mac that didn't feel like it could come from a teammate slot.

Idk if this is the correct way to phrase this, but it almost feels irresponsible to not yeet Lucy this cycle.

New colored spreads for review:

D1
DrWilgy 3
Voters: Marmot, Dennis, pyxxy
falcon45ca 1
Voters: Sabiplz, Kate, S~V~S, fingersplints
fingersplints 1
Voters: DrWilgy
Neon 1
Voters: falcon45ca
pyxxy 1
Voters: Seanzie

D2
Dennis 4
Voters: MacDougall, Neon, Marmot, lucy
fingersplints 1
Voters: DrWilgy
Macdougall 4
Voters: Dennis, pyxxy, Sabiplz, Seanzie

D3
Marmot 1
Voters: Neon
Neon 3
Voters: Seanzie, Sabiplz, Marmot
Sabiplz 1
Voters: pyxyy

I'd never push Lucy

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:16 pm Right now I'm leaning towards voting Neon.

Same.

I feel that there's been plenty opportunity for Neon to get engaged with the thread this cycle, but that hasn't really happened.

Lucy kinda as well.

Honestly makes me feel that we have little choice but to bank on the Potential Lucy Neon PoE as they aren't self resolving or spewing.

I will note, pyxxy's point of "Wilgy hasn't really had a suspicion since Fingersplints" doesn't feel genuine.

The PoE I provided and order rof PoE layering seems to have been completely ignored by Pyxxy.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 2:21 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:06 pm I was wrong. I was an idiot. I was snowed hard by Mac but that doesn't make me wolf

@DrWilgy does this remind you of what IAWY did in the Secret Playerlist game? After IAWY got caught trying to save Vivax and push Falcon?

I'm asking because you were paired with IAWY

Spoiler: show

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:19 am The foot wins

IAWY and Wilgy were the last mafia.

Thanks for playing team. Thread is open.

Will makes some comments when it's not new years eve.

I need to look at Neon's ISO to tell. The thing about IAWY was they had defended, but they preemptively set up an excuse for the defensive vote.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 2:31 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:18 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:16 pm if I die here please kill pyxxy and Dennis. Fingersplints is probably the 3rd or she'd have voted Dennis earlier. And his read on her is very partnery.

GL town.

Just based on Mac's ISO:

There's minimal interaction with Seanzie.

Sabi feels much worse.

Pyxxy I'm tinfoiling.

Marmot is clear.

Mac's interactions with Lucy are weird bud idk how to read them.

Skill. Issue.

Ah. Yes. A non constructive comment in opposition to a well placed suspicion.

pyxxy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 1:37 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:18 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:16 pm if I die here please kill pyxxy and Dennis. Fingersplints is probably the 3rd or she'd have voted Dennis earlier. And his read on her is very partnery.

GL town.

Just based on Mac's ISO:

There's minimal interaction with Seanzie.

Sabi feels much worse.

Pyxxy I'm tinfoiling.

Marmot is clear.

Mac's interactions with Lucy are weird bud idk how to read them.

"Just based on Mac's ISO:"
"Marmot is clear."

How much does the first part influence the second part?

Quite abit. There's not a huge amount here, but I really don't think the Marmot interaction I quoted could be that if teammates.

In other news. I finally got my shiny three segment Dudunsparce in Scarlet and Violet.

He's beautiful: I think I caught and evolved 40+ shiny dunsparces to get here.

I'm still obsessed with this game 2 months later send help.

@Scotty, can you change me to a 3p that gets to play as the yellow spotted lizard?

I desire to make lizard sounds.

Imma digest Mac abit before moving onto my next victim.

And maybe it's the fact that I've seen them do this exact play before, so I'm looking for it, but I really do feel Mac told Sabi to bus them. The tempo then changed when he decided to vote for Dennis and that's when he went into a chaos state.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:16 pm if I die here please kill pyxxy and Dennis. Fingersplints is probably the 3rd or she'd have voted Dennis earlier. And his read on her is very partnery.

GL town.

Just based on Mac's ISO:

There's minimal interaction with Seanzie.

Sabi feels much worse.

Pyxxy I'm tinfoiling.

Marmot is clear.

Mac's interactions with Lucy are weird bud idk how to read them.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:11 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:10 pm Mac this game does remind me of Mac from League Mafia Game 3 where he was a wolf, but for vague reasons I can't articulate, so I'll just sleep on that read for now.

Really?

Marmot and Mac aren't aligned.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:51 pm Well sabi is mafia with Dennis gg.

Yo this is anti-spew.

Then again... Wagonomics are still fug d1 due to the low energy and multiple players missing/locking randomly.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:43 am I think Wilgy is town. He would have voted Falcon otherwise. So his wagon probably has 1 mafia on it.

There's a maf in the Falcon voters probably.

Other one is off wagon.

Compared to the new spread of:
DrWilgy 3
Voters: Marmot, Dennis, pyxxy
falcon45ca 4
Voters: Sabiplz, Kate, S~V~S, fingersplints
fingersplints 1
Voters: DrWilgy
Neon 1
Voters: falcon45ca
pyxxy 1
Voters: Seanzie

What do we think on Mac's statement?

Reviewing this makes me think to double check Sabi's push on Mac to see if it may be a bus or not. The Falcon wagon being pure would still surprise me tbh.

"Other one is off wagon" feels like an intentional bait.

And maybe I'm getting bamboozled here, but the only one Mac said probably to was the Falcon wagon. Almost as if that one specifically needed a means for them to eject.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:37 am Marmot
Lucy
Falcon

Everyone else was townie

I think this nullifies a Marmot/Lucy/Mac team

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:37 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:34 pm Maybe it's game throwing but I won't elim Marmot

I appreciate it

mfw it's actually Sabi/Mac/Marmot

so... My question on Marmot possibilities.

If W!Marmot gambles on the Neon cross, they seem to think that they wouldn't be at risk of 1. Counterwagon or 2. Explanation on how the Neon/Lucy team is now moot.

DOES W!Marmot think that a flip of T!Neon could pivot into an attempted yeet on me?

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:21 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:21 pm I'd elim Marmot.

Not if neon or Wilgz are still alive

Sabi, what are you to do when you realize that I'm not wolf?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:20 pm what is going on?

Game is in a post Mac chaos state.

I'm playing WoW by myself.

@Epignosis rehost Dune Mafia.

Now that I've read 3 books I wish to experience this (also I remember this game being like the first on the site I was ever aware of missing sign ups for because I had just moved to Austin shortly after joining the syndicate.)

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:09 pm I killed the thread

No, I just left thread to level my alt

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:46 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:40 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:35 pm She has defended both Mac and Neon, so a Mac/lucy/neon team is not far-fetched at all.

this is a good lv1 team. I think.

I still intend on going through Mac's iso specifically but this is a team I can see. If I'm wrong about a slot and W are not in [Lucy, Neon] then I think there's likely one in Marmot, but I have NO clue who the teammate is. Pyxxy maybe? You've been soft defending them quite abit this game.

Was this a POE you came to on your own, or were you sheeping mine?

Both? It's a logical conclusion I feel. Neon has enough scum weight and Lucy did defend the slot.

If I'm wrong on a read it really would just be you. Like, unless Mac was all in on the 'bus me bois' but, again, future me problem.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:46 pm Why am I alive

Because Lucy and Neon think they can get you in their pocket?

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:44 pm Poe more like peepeepoopoo

poOwO?

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:43 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:40 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:35 pm She has defended both Mac and Neon, so a Mac/lucy/neon team is not far-fetched at all.

this is a good lv1 team. I think.

I still intend on going through Mac's iso specifically but this is a team I can see. If I'm wrong about a slot and W are not in [Lucy, Neon] then I think there's likely one in Marmot, but I have NO clue who the teammate is. Pyxxy maybe? You've been soft defending them quite abit this game.

I don't think it's been a soft defense tbh.

Also, we only get one more misyeet, so you'll need a POE of 3 (Lucy and Neon can't both be misses from your POV).

that sounds like a problem for future me to deal with