The Syndicate

Oh, fun fact, the night I died from SK was a mistake. I had followed J3's vote that day, so I should've had protection from any RYM night powers that night. MP made the next SK kill against a civ miss to make up for it.

It's all good, just trying to explain where my frustration came from.

Also in the sock game your "2" was super apathetic so I was already somewhat annoyed at the persona. That really wasn't the best game to join the site on, it's got me all mixed up as to who acts like what.

Marsh the reason I was after your head was because I was convinced you were aware of the possibility that your Vote For Sale vote had gotten through but were ignoring it. That was the only basis for me calling you illogical. I thought you had ignored the very real possibility that me tunneling Wilgy for literally a week was attempting to send you a message that "I want Wilgy dead after the night phase you bought LVS's vote against Wilgy" but you didn't see it. So the only remaining possibilities were Mafia or SK, both allegiances I wanted dead.

The way I see it if Bullzeye was town who gave up that was the game anyway. That's most likely a flawed mindset, but that discussion is for another time since nobody else is going to give up. Right?

Thanks for the clarification MM.

I won't state what I think of this yet, lest I misunderstand it and add fuel to the fire, but can you clarify what you mean with this MM?

Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?

For some reason I thought he was coloring it for emphasis. I need to use my brain sometimes, it's a lovely organ.

I'm a bit confused Rico. Your conclusion is that J3 is clearly scum. But a few paragraphs later you concede it's a tinfoil and would be nearly pointless to pursue. Is this how you intended to be understood?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:J3, what primary emotion do you think motel room's posts have contained?

I'm struggling to find a word that describes it properly. Not sure it's an "emotion", but I think he has displayed equanimity despite generally brief posts.

By that you mean he's seemingly remained calm and collected despite what could've very well been Lynch or Lose and our general situation at the moment? Is that a good thing, or does it unnerve you? Do you feel the same about me?

Also something to note, Love For Sale is deceased.

It's additional information. It can obviously be used against me and against the fourth vote onto Choutas.

If it helps, I distinctly recall that my vote on Choutas tied the vote yesterday

Never mind, he missed that vote.

I think the fact that Bull eye refused to self-preservation vote is notable. Was he not on the cusp of being lynched yesterday and voted for Choutas?

Is there anyone that thinks I'm more than likely town?

Disclaimer, roughly four days from now I'll be busy helping run a huge tournament, so I'll be gone for at least all of Saturday, possibly a large portion of Friday evening as well.

J3, what primary emotion do you think motel room's posts have contained?

Diiny wrote:How do you know it's a misconception?????

I am confused as to how serious this is, but I'll attempt to answer it.

I know it's a misconception because I know that I don't necessarily read Wilgy that well and have said as much. Other people are saying that I do read Wilgy extremely well. That's not true, therefore a misconception? It's wrong, either way, is my point. We play off each other very well, yes, but interestingly enough that doesn't include the ability to read him, at least from my end.

I don't read Wilgy particularly well, trying to correct that misconception.

Grats Russ!

Oh god that formatting. I apologize.

Wilgy if you think I'm scum why did you save me? You had an emphatic defense of me. Why?

Not necessarily, but it's nice to be right after screwing the pooch the last two times scum was lynched.

"Mac looks a bit better after that outburst, I think"
*Engage in awkward banter*
Scum.

"I know Floyd looks objectively bad, but I'm not voting him due to personal illogical reasons"
*Two days late*
Scum.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:By the way, while I'm gloating already, your vote is a one-of off-wagon vote Metalmarsh. The day we lynched scum. Looks like you missed out on all those brownie points, shame.

If there was a close lynch between someone else, I would have tied it. A unanimous lynch is a different story. Again, you've misunderstood me.

So, just to make sure that I don't misunderstand you, you would've tied the vote if you could've?

And to be abundantly clear the quote I have below, about not being able to declare a winner until the clock hits zero, is what I was referring to with the one-of off-wagon vote comment. After the clock hit zero and town won, you were officially on an off-wagon by yourself.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.
If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?

When the lynch is over and the votes are official. You can't declare a winner until the clock hits zero.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:By the way, while I'm gloating already, your vote is a one-of off-wagon vote Metalmarsh. The day we lynched scum. Looks like you missed out on all those brownie points, shame.

If there was a close lynch between someone else, I would have tied it. A unanimous lynch is a different story. Again, you've misunderstood me.

So, just to make sure that I don't misunderstand you, you would've tied the vote if you could've?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.

If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?

When the lynch is over and the votes are official. You can't declare a winner until the clock hits zero.

By the way, while I'm gloating already, your vote is a one-of off-wagon vote Metalmarsh. The day we lynched scum. Looks like you missed out on all those brownie points, shame.

Excuse me, I'll just be over here gloating in the corner.

motel room wrote:Fuzz, the posts I quoted were before and during you casting the vote. Like remember Long Con's eventual vote for Sig early on where he had to backpedal the Bea thing and find a more compelling reason to place his final vote? Reminds me of that. Too-heavy display of reasoning.

I wasn't around then and haven't read it. My vote was more complex than a simple "He said X, X is scum talk, lynch him" so that's why I had exposition about my vote. Would you have preferred me gloss over my reasoning?

MM as I've said all game I have done scummy things. Soft defense of Mac, illogical reasons for not voting Floyd, I'm aware of this. There is no defense to what I did, simply put. What could I possibly say that would make me look better with those moves?

Thanks Rico, just didn't want to attribute opinions to you that you might not believe.

Metalmarsh, is word usage not important? Words are the only venue we have to communicate, and this is a game about communication. When I made the comment about your desire to lynch me, I wasn't referring to your case against me, I was referring to your very minor efforts to get me lynched. "Vote X with me" is, in my experience, rarely a compelling argument.

And for the last time I'm not calling anyone an asshole. I'm not trying to imply that anyone is an asshole. I am saying that Bullzeye is NOT an asshole. In this imaginary world that does not exist where Bullzeye is an asshole Bullzeye intentionally is making life for town difficult while town. That is NOT what is happening here. Even if Bullzeye is town he is NOT an asshole. Don't try to create drama Diiny, this isn't high school.

You're taking my frustrations out of context, Diiny, regarding Mac. I was annoyed because the boundraries for what is and is not acceptable to say on this site are subjective and measured by how offended people are to what you say. I had thought they were at a certain point and then Mac pushed significantly beyond that point and there's this really annoying dissonance.

motel I've been trying really hard to rationalize the appearance of my vote because it wasn't understood and people asked me to.

Rico the organization of your post implies that you think motel room, Bullzeye, and/or DrWilgy are "leaning bad." Is this the case?

His desire has amounted to "vote RadicalFuzz with me" so pardon me if I'm not impressed.

If one vote to four at 45 minutes till deadline isn't an off-wagon, then at what point does it become one?

Have you not criticized players in the past for "wasting" their votes on off-wagons?

MM what are you playing at with your vote?

You don't have doubts, you have fears. Doubts don't influence decision making, they are statistical representations of likelihood. I understand your exhaustion and appreciate your redoubled effort.

Diiny wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:

Diiny wrote:I agree with the second part.

Why did you post what you did about numbers and bullzye's giving up? It attempts (and fails) to justify a townie bullzye lynch? what does lynching a townie bullzye 'solve', as you originally posted?

It's intended to be an "even if this condition is false, the alternative is poor" statement. If Bullzeye has given up then that's the quote-unquote "safest" mislynch we have because the only loss is a number as opposed to a number and legitimate input. I use the term safest there extremely loosely.

Did Wilgy express suspicion of Bullzeye when Choutas was alive based on the same criteria? Or put Bullz & Choutas in a "one is mafia" bucket?

A safe mislynch isn't 'solving a problem', though. I feel like you're trying to back away from those words in particular.

In the two or so years I've played every single game has had inactives. Players that don't vote and get modkilled. Literally not a single game has gone by without someone being unable to gauge how much time they have and/or are willing to commit to mafia. I despise this and would rather Bullzeye be dead than say nothing.

The wording "solve the problem" is because I see the following scenario happening:
Bullzeye survives and doesn't come back to the game
We are now effectively down a member because there are (players - 1) people talking
Mafia certainly won't kill Bullzeye because he isn't helping
SK won't kill Bullzeye because he's not a threat to the SK
We're stuck with Bullzeye, either a civilian not saying anything, or a scum not saying anything

What is the solution to this scenario? Lynch Bullzeye. I am okay with lynching Bullzeye because of his actions this phase. It is not productive to town to give up. I don't take Bullzeye for an individual who would intentionally do things to hurt his team. Therefore, the logical conclusion is that Bullzeye is not doing things to intentionally hurt his team.

Rico what are you talking about with "having lost faith" and "not sure what chances the civs still have?" We have a chance, that's all we've ever needed. If you need to put absolute faith in something to function then put it in yourself. This is Mafia, there are no public absolutes. Putting faith in anybody besides yourself is exposing your back and hoping they don't have a knife. If you need a path then answer my question. Do you want a fifth win or do you want to lose?



Yes, Diiny, that's correct. My train of thought was as follows:
-Bullzeye is not an asshole who attempts to lose the game for his team
-The actions Bullzeye are taking are very detrimental to town
-Bullzeye is not intentionally attempting to decrease his team's chances of winning
-Therefore, Bullzeye must not be decreasing his teams' chances of winning

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Last minute reminder that shenanigans are always a strong possibility and a decisive tally is needed to ensure town has full command of this lynch. Okay bye.

A decisive tally is easier for scum to hide in, and is doubly bad if we lynch incorrectly.

Having the lynch possibly be changed around by Drugs and losing the game is better?

Diiny wrote:I agree with the second part.

Why did you post what you did about numbers and bullzye's giving up? It attempts (and fails) to justify a townie bullzye lynch? what does lynching a townie bullzye 'solve', as you originally posted?

It's intended to be an "even if this condition is false, the alternative is poor" statement. If Bullzeye has given up then that's the quote-unquote "safest" mislynch we have because the only loss is a number as opposed to a number and legitimate input. I use the term safest there extremely loosely.

Did Wilgy express suspicion of Bullzeye when Choutas was alive based on the same criteria? Or put Bullz & Choutas in a "one is mafia" bucket?

Okay, maybe I'm misunderstanding Bullzeye's intentions. When I see what Bullzeye has said about essentially giving up I imagine that as literally not returning to the game to vote, post, anything.

The reason I fail to believe that he's town struggling to catch up is because there's the option of simply not catching up but still trying to help, and he's not taking it. I've been in that position, having dozens of pages to read, and it sucks. I didn't read them, but I didn't just throw in the towel. Just because you're behind doesn't give you license to screw over your team. I believe that Bullzeye is employing a strategy to survive longer without being required to contribute, and that is scum behavior.

I'm removing Bullzeye from the numbers at the point of Bullzeye giving up. That is not a lynch.

Diiny I think he's scum because I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt he's not an asshole who decides to intentionally lose games for his team by just giving up.

Updated numbers, then. Again, worst case assuming Bullzeye is civilian.

Today: 5-3-1
After Bullzeye gives up: 4-3-1
Mislynch: 3-3-1
Mafia kill: 2-3-1
SK kill: 1-3-1

Day 12 begins with two civilians, one of which has given up. Mafia can force a tie at best, lead a lynch at worst, and win by process of elimination.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Bullzeye doesn't vote, post, or think about this game. Let us also assume that he is town. That is effectively a dead civilian in that he won't engage with the game whatsoever. If we mislynch someone else, then depending on whether you'd prefer to go by the worst case scenario (6-3-1 today) or something slightly better, we have lost two civilians in one phase.

Let me use numbers to illustrate this better. I'll be using the worst-case scenario here and assuming that Bullzeye is civilian.

Today, pre-lynch: 6-3-1
Today, once Bullzeye gives up: 5-3-1
Today, if we mislynch: 4-3-1
Tonight, when Mafia kill: 3-3-1
Tonight, when SK kills: 2-3-1

If Bullzeye gives up and is town that automatically kills a townie and drastically reduces our chances of winning. Because that's such a bad thing to do as town, I believe he's scum trying to coast by.

I believe he's scum because he's intentionally put us in this horrible situation if he isn't. I have no reason to believe that Bullzeye doesn't know this.

When I say "removes one townie from the game" I refer to him being literal dead weight. If it's Lynch-or-Lose and one civilian isn't willing to cooperate, then that's just Lose. This is, assuming, that my benefit of the doubt that he's attempting to win is unfounded.

There's a technician here so it's possible my internet will cut at some point. I'll vote Bullseye to remove the tie.

Bullzeye

J3 in this case, Bullzeye choosing to stop playing does nothing bit hurt town by a large margin. If he is town he removes one townie from the game, which we can't afford at this point. If he's scum he skates by silently. Lynching him fixes both potential problems. I think him being town is unlikely due to the sheer strength of this action. If it was minor and there were counterweights, then there would be conflict present. But as it is, what is the alternative?

I give everyone the benefit of the doubt that their main go is to win. If I see something anti-town I reach the conclusion that the person responsible for that is anti-town. Do you think this is faulty?

MM can you reiterate your answer to my question, I don't understand the linki.

I don't know about Bullzeye's meta, but publicly giving up reads anything but SK. In the meta I'm used to it's usually a scum-oriented thing to do, but I'm not sure about here, particularly with the record-setting post count. I'd prefer Wilgy or MM because I've been following them for longer, but if Bullzeye isn't going to play then that ties our hands somewhat. It's the objectively worst choice as civilian, so for that alone I'd have to assume he's scum.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:Let's go worst case situation. Nine players. Three Mafia, five civilians, and one serial killer. We mislynch, and two civilians die at night (Mafia kills on odd nights, correct?)
Three Mafia, two civilians, one serial killer. The Mafia can forcibly tie the vote at the last moment, if worst comes to worst. It's not far-fetched to suggest that today could be lynch-or-lose.

Metalmarsh, in a world where a wagon of your strongest town read has one more vote than the wagon of your second strongest town read, what do you do?

J3, as an aside, I find it amusing how I thought we were very similar at first but are proving to be very different. Simple things, such as vote ideology and pressure tactics.

If the phase is going to end in 5 minutes, tough call. If I had reason to believe that one player was civ for reasons no one else knows, I would vote accordingly to save that player. Otherwise, I would not vote on that wagon. Asking someone to vote for their strongest town read is a high price.

So you would tie the vote, then? Attempt to save your strongest town read by giving your second strongest town read a chance at death?

What do you mean Diiny? "Good shit" meaning you approve of my reasons for voting Wilgy?

Let's go worst case situation. Nine players. Three Mafia, five civilians, and one serial killer. We mislynch, and two civilians die at night (Mafia kills on odd nights, correct?)
Three Mafia, two civilians, one serial killer. The Mafia can forcibly tie the vote at the last moment, if worst comes to worst. It's not far-fetched to suggest that today could be lynch-or-lose.

Metalmarsh, in a world where a wagon of your strongest town read has one more vote than the wagon of your second strongest town read, what do you do?

J3, as an aside, I find it amusing how I thought we were very similar at first but are proving to be very different. Simple things, such as vote ideology and pressure tactics.

J3, how many Mafia are alive right now?

The pink one, you're correct. I misread that, then, thanks for the clarification.

I'll break the standoff with a vote on Wilgy now.

Oh, another statement. J3 in your spew analysis of me, you point out that Mac's lightning-fast waffling on me could be teammate interaction. I disagree. Why would I point that out if we were teammates? If we were teammates I clearly wasn't interested in bussing him, so why start then? Really glad I went back and caught that, even if it doesn't change interpretations of me.

Russ I never claimed I could read Wilgy, I claimed we work well off of each other. Those are very different things. The reason I think my best townie aspect is other peoples' town reads of me is because a lot of my content looks bad. I was nonexistent during the LC/bea events, I held an unpopular opinion towards Mac's reactions, and by all appearances did my damndest to save Mac and Floyd without committing to anything.

I actually am perfectly content with your green reads of Rico and Diiny, the latter in particular. Doing has come close to being lynched twice, at least once as a counter wagon to scum.

Wilgy looks bad, yes, but his emphatic defense of me is strange. That's the most effort he put into the game so far, and he was more actively defending me than I was. That makes me think better of him, due to my knowledge that I am civilian and personal brownie points, but also a good bit worse. Coming in out of nowhere with such an avid defense should be very scary, as you could be saving scum. But he never read afraid or concerned to me.

Wilgy, if Russ had said everything I had said this game what would your response to him be?

Also I think I missed a question or two. If you feel ignored point it out to me and I'll get on it.

For what it's worth I think if there's any interactions that lack intentional WIFOM they'll be from Floyd. That makes MM look better to me. Still want him lynched though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

RadicalFuzz wrote:Also I think that Mac so immediately changing his opinion of me, flipping between me being scum and then town within 2 minutes, doesn't look bad for me. If I was his teammate I don't think he would've been so sloppy. This is, however, with the knowledge that I'm civilian, so I can't form a completely unbiased opinion.

I might not think you're a top two suspect anymore, Fuzz. Just wait and see what's coming up next!

That's an interesting link you've found, J3, between Wilgy and Mac. Going through Mac's possible reasons for publicly appearing to want Wilgy dead, Wilgy being civ doesn't fit nicely into place in that scenario. I don't remember exactly how long I voted Wilgy for, but it got very little traction pretty much every day. One could argue that Mac was trying for a Wilgy lynch if it was the first day that a public call for Wilgy's head had been sounded, but even then Mac didn't so much as look at Wilgy. It feels like a practiced routine. Mac votes for player X who won't get lynched, then moves to player Y who may be lynched. Either player X or Mac look good when the other flips, if they're both Mafia. An extremely low commitment stance with potentially high rewards.

Top three suspects:
-Metalmarsh
-Russ
-Bullzeye

Of those three I'm only confident on Metalmarsh. Russ and Bullz have seemed strange in their interactions with other players, but my suspicion of Metalmarsh is from my direct interactions with him.

I mentioned earlier how I feel like MM is using me. I have nothing I can point to that makes me feel like this, it's a gut thing, as if he's trying to get a specific action from me. This compounds the poor impression I have of him already due to the number of grating interactions he's had with others.



Also I think that Mac so immediately changing his opinion of me, flipping between me being scum and then town within 2 minutes, doesn't look bad for me. If I was his teammate I don't think he would've been so sloppy. This is, however, with the knowledge that I'm civilian, so I can't form a completely unbiased opinion.