The Syndicate

Jay you were as good as ever. The wolves were very very good here. It was nice to see the old Jay back!

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:10 am Btw if you thought I was w/w with Axe today you were gonna think it so much more tomorrow if you got me

I uh, wrote some certain posts that I gave Hally in wc lol

Haha nice. Yeah I actually did call out the defensiveness you had there as fake when Hally kept citing it lol.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:10 am This is a game where town needs a Sloonei.

I don't think there is a town combination capable of coordinating to get Hally over. Alison being chopped d1 for no apparent reason did not help.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:06 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:05 am

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:05 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:04 am Awarding myself town MVP tho for my axe and c4 reads shaddap I'm mvp deal with it lmao

Dude
Dude the fuckin
The thing you said about us clearing Nook
LMAO

Which thing was that?

You said we were potentially wolves spewing that we thought Nook would be consensus clear when he wasn't
Shit

Haha yeah I did say that.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:05 am this may be my best wolf game ever ngl

didn’t think i was still capable of this

c4 you were amazing

You were fantastic. I might have had a small chance of finding you if I wasn't so deep in the POE. It allowed you to just townread me and win me over. Which is ironic cuz I brought up how that is a thing to you about an hr ago lol.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:05 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:04 am Awarding myself town MVP tho for my axe and c4 reads shaddap I'm mvp deal with it lmao

Dude
Dude the fuckin
The thing you said about us clearing Nook
LMAO

Which thing was that?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:03 am gg! sorry y’all

i still got it

yeh u made some killer wolf moves here grrrl lol

Awarding myself town MVP tho for my axe and c4 reads shaddap I'm mvp deal with it lmao

wow gg Hally... evil

Jayyyy?

Jay? Did you just school us?

we aren't winning this game if axe is town clearly so I'm done

just vote him and see if there's a hammer or not

fine

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:36 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm Yes I'm obviously ccing and we shouldn't kill either of us

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm Why would you make him claim again wtf

Because he's about to get chopped

HE ALREADY CLAIMED DONT FUCKING MAKE HIM DO IT AGAIN JESUS CHRIST

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:54 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:52 pm Anyways I hard CC put me over today idc

then vote wilgy

No we should never kill either of us

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:55 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:53 pm can't stand the fps claims

And I can't stand mechanical incompetence, yet here we fucking are

@MacDougall, do you think this is a sequence Nanook fakes? It's not the frustration I am referring to in isolation, but the reason for the frustration. If he was really trying to cover for Wilgy and felt the requests for claim clarity got in the way, then that's what causes this -- town indicative. I am not "certain", but it sure looks that way to me.

Yes it does look that way. No I don't think it's impossible to fake. I think Nanook's progression and read on me is way more indicative of him being mafia that what you are quoting here is indicative of him being town.

I would describe the Nook/C4 interactions as completely plausible and good quality distancing. Caveat is that Nanook doesn't usually go in for distancing in my experience. If it wasn't for my knowledge of that I would laugh about you clearing that option. But because I do... I think you're probably correct but like... not confidently saying that.

Okay so are you saying that I shouldn't be ruling out teams that include Jay?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:29 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:28 pm I just think Axe is sheeping Alison without fully admitting it tbh. I am the only one left alive from her POE so he is banking on her being right in lieu of trusting his own judgement or the judgement of other players here (who he does not have alignment confirmation of which is fair). It is not out of scumrange to sheep a dead town reading a town mafia to win at lylo, but it kind of is to do so in the way he is. It comes across like he is actually in two minds about it. Coupled with the fact that the last game we played together he was right about me most of the game (probably for similar dead town sheep reasons at least partially) and then I got really towny right at the end of the game and nearly got him to throw. He's probably rather conscious of me doing it again. Especially considering that the way I got him to flip his read on me last time is probably not exactly clear to him how I did it lol.

I don't think I am willing to make that assumption for him.

I don't even think it's an assumption. Pretty sure he's mentioned it multiple times. He just hasn't belaboured it or leant heavily on it.

I am currently the only person voting in this game, vote pressure is actually a thing you guys.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:25 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:23 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:21 pm I don't think its particularly likely mafia would have hammered there given the difficulty of voting in this game and this site's tendency towards cautious scum play around hammers

If two mafia were here, you don't think they hammer? That is ludicrous lol.

I think a mafia team of hally/c4 specifically probably doesn't

You're treating it like this is MU where it's not that hard to hammer

I have snipe hammered to win games on TS so many times it's ridiculous lol. It's actually easier to do as a tandem or team on TS imo because of the lack of visibility over it (you only need to vote in the poll then screenshot it, game over). Hell Jay, Nutella and I have done it as three people. You can coordinate down to the exact second in scum chat to do it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:24 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:17 pm Looking at all three of you, you also have given no real effort to push any of the other three of you on this day. That is despite Axe and Nanook both having articulated strong scumreads on C4 at multiple points in the game. No real desire to push him today. This makes me think that c4 is always mafia. If the scum were Axe/Nanook, it has already become significantly easier to start to push C4 to get this win (especially given I am voting him). Ergo I feel C4 is outed via gamestate.

The question then becomes who is the other wolf. I think asking the question who is the most wolfy between Axe/Nanook is more pertinent than who is more likely to be with exactly C4. I have had a mostly consistent feel that Axe is town throughout the game. Nanook has not developed enough for my liking, in his read on me and his general play. I think Nanook is more likely than Axe but not by much.

I've considered similar things about c4.

Between Nanook and NAA, my answer is definitely NAA as being more independently suspicious. I am not sure he is keeping his story straight about you -- he deduced you're mafia (or had a "read") on the basis of the statistical analysis he described on Day 2, had you in a hard dichotomy with Nanook who I think made himself a lot clearer at EOD2, and still voted Dizzy... because Alison said so. Now today he is claiming his view of you isn't alignment-driven but rather something about "game impact", which doesn't make any sense to me with his prior statistical analysis in mind.

I just think Axe is sheeping Alison without fully admitting it tbh. I am the only one left alive from her POE so he is banking on her being right in lieu of trusting his own judgement or the judgement of other players here (who he does not have alignment confirmation of which is fair). It is not out of scumrange to sheep a dead town reading a town mafia to win at lylo, but it kind of is to do so in the way he is. It comes across like he is actually in two minds about it. Coupled with the fact that the last game we played together he was right about me most of the game (probably for similar dead town sheep reasons at least partially) and then I got really towny right at the end of the game and nearly got him to throw. He's probably rather conscious of me doing it again. Especially considering that the way I got him to flip his read on me last time is probably not exactly clear to him how I did it lol.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:20 pm To be clear since I forgot to mention: I wasn't here at all whenever there was a two vote wagon. When I returned I think the poll was empty.

Yeah so given this I can bury the idea that you and C4 is off the table then. C4/Hally is though.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:21 pm I don't think its particularly likely mafia would have hammered there given the difficulty of voting in this game and this site's tendency towards cautious scum play around hammers

If two mafia were here, you don't think they hammer? That is ludicrous lol.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:11 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:09 pm I am going to be candid. If you think c4/mac is possible you are not earnestly reading my play in this game at all with any kind of nuance.

No. You already said once that it's mafia's chief job in a two-player team to dissociate and I agree, so if I am going to actually dissociate I need strong indicators that are hard to conceive as possible distancing. Mac/c4 isn't my first guess, but it's absolutely one to be considered.

The disassociation between us is too level 1 is my point. It has not been strong enough or tactical enough. On day 1 when I pushed C4 he didn't fight me. He now says that my day 1 was shit, but I was right there to be pushed over, over Alison and he chose not to act on it on day 1 when it was there. He now says the SOD on day 2 was good but he didn't even start pushing me until day 3. On day 2 he voted Axe, with you. Today he is not, he is pushing me again even though he has articulated that I was worse at the start. His progression on me doesn't pass the logic test. And most of his play has been self defense today attempting to call on meta and reminding me (even though I am mafia to him) that I have not read him well historically. He is not solving, he is trying to survive and figure out how to correctly mischop today.

My literal only pause on C4 is in considering that he hasn't already given up pushing me and picked between Nook/Axe yet. Which is not to say it's a good look for him, it's actually bad, but it is the one thing that makes me tinfoil you Jay, because if it is you and him, neither of you would be quite aware yet which of the other two to bury for the kill and are probably still trying to feel out those two themselves to see if they will turn on each other. This is quite a stretch, but it's the most outlying thing I am considering.

It has become clear that Axe actually has no scumread on me and is simply still deferring to Alison's d1 read. Yet he has not said that, which is another reason I think he is town because if he was mafia he would be just simply trying to get you all to sheep Alison's bad read. The agenda to get me chopped isn't strong enough for him to play the wildcard.

@Hally @JaggedJimmyJay earlier today Nanook and Axe put me at L-2 while both Hally and C4 were present. I was voted long enough I am sure given Jay was here not long prior or post this period, that if any combination of Hally/Jay/C4 were the exact 2 mafia the game would be over right now in a town loss. So I can rule out any combination of you three as being mafia. I can simply rule Hally out for not burying me today, and I think I can rule Jay out for the same.

Of the three remaining players, all three seem to be scumreading me for asinine reasons. Like really look at it for what it is (including any and all town inside those three). Their/your reasoning is bad/non existent and/or tinfoil oriented in the case of C4 (like his argument at this juncture is literally "mac CAN be mafia so he probably IS mafia). This is pretty indicative that there is mafia inside of that group of three that require my mischop to win the game. I'd go as far as to say that it's quite indicative that they feel like they need my mischop today in fact.

Looking at all three of you, you also have given no real effort to push any of the other three of you on this day. That is despite Axe and Nanook both having articulated strong scumreads on C4 at multiple points in the game. No real desire to push him today. This makes me think that c4 is always mafia. If the scum were Axe/Nanook, it has already become significantly easier to start to push C4 to get this win (especially given I am voting him). Ergo I feel C4 is outed via gamestate.

The question then becomes who is the other wolf. I think asking the question who is the most wolfy between Axe/Nanook is more pertinent than who is more likely to be with exactly C4. I have had a mostly consistent feel that Axe is town throughout the game. Nanook has not developed enough for my liking, in his read on me and his general play. I think Nanook is more likely than Axe but not by much.

All Mac worlds exist only in level 1 worlds except for Nanook/Mac fmpov. Nanook/Mac makes some sense due to there being preceivable requisite energy for both of us to ensure that it does not exist.

I am going to be candid. If you think c4/mac is possible you are not earnestly reading my play in this game at all with any kind of nuance.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:49 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:13 pm Neither is Jay really tho. Only Hally is tbh.

What is the purpose of this post?

to encourage you to do more/vocalise that your lack of effort this day is starting to perturb me... what other purpose would there be?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:13 pm i think i’ve suspected everyone alive at some point so regardless of who the wolves are i can say i was right

The mac method

I'm playing my heart out trying to solve and y'all just being lazy and leaning on me like I'm still a wolf. Frustrating.

Neither is Jay really tho. Only Hally is tbh.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:07 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:52 pm @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME @NotAnAxehole @c4e5g3d5

this isn't provocation moreso a genuine question, who is my most likely partner?

It will please you to know that I didn't think your posts about why you should be unaligned from Axe actually unaligned you from Axe at all.

If that's wrong, Jay or I'm misclearing someone. I think your appeals to Jay today have seemed like real appeals, though.

You aren't really doing the town wincon justice today if you are town dude.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:11 pm if it’s mac/jay we lost from the start lol

but i’ll pretend i knew it all along because i tinfoiled them D2

just stop doing this please

I never had a chance to really argue with the wagon cuz d1 ended at 7.30am before I opened the thread that morning. When I went to sleep the night prior she wasn't at risk enough for me to really need to. Also my town read on her wasn't like super confident anyway honestly. I thought she was town but not to a degree where I would be lock towning her and yelling at ppl suspecting her dramatically 9 hrs before eod when she didn't rly have a scary looking wagon on her.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:54 pm OK, @MacDougall the most anti-town thing that Nanook has done all game is unvote you when he realized it would clear people at minimal risk.

Agree / Disagree?

Yes quite so.

The most scummy thing he's done specifically however (albeit you'd need to know my alignment to know) is give a Mac is lock town read on me that he didn't believe and subsequently end up pushing me when I was arguably at the towniest I had been in the game.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME @NotAnAxehole @c4e5g3d5

this isn't provocation moreso a genuine question, who is my most likely partner?

yeah that's valid

Okay...

Yeah okay.

Can you unpair Axe/Nanook?

I dunno about that Hally, poe town can be greatly strategically beneficial to pocket because they are more inclined to townread you for being townread than a town outside the POE and getting their vote on your side can protect you. I do it all the time.

Yeah I mean it is true that they are compatible. But I find Nanook and C4 more suspicious than Axe on an individual level and ... I'm not sure that their interactions are clearing for them really.

Can you show me why Nanook and C4 can't be teammates?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:22 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:19 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:15 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:10 pm That also brings me to my next magic trick. I think Axe is town still and that C4/Nook is the solve.

i don’t think c4/nook can be teamed

Maybe I am a dunce, but Axe has had more conviction in his solve today than the other two. What you and Jay were describing before about floundering because your mischops die applies more to Nanook and C4 than it does to Axe.

For me he is the town between the three.

What is obvious to me is that it is not you and/or Jay because you would not need to side with me here to win if it was either of you since 3 other players believe me to be mafia. Axe has articulated his reason for suspecting me better than the other three have. Nanook and C4 in fact really just haven't at all. The one of the three who has handled me the poorest is Nook.

So... let's talk about how/why it can't be C4/Nook then.

where has he articulated it? i still have no idea why he thinks you’re a wolf

he has that one post with his “mechanical solve” that makes zero sense to me and jay asked him to explain his method for getting there and he didn’t

afaict he is just repeating you’re a wolf over and over but has no idea why

yeah he has articulated it poorly but it's still better than either c4 or nook have

so reviewing the way c4 handled both of them I would say that...

a) he has handled axe in a partnery way ie. soft defense, not really pushing him... but it is also the same way that a mafia will often defend a townie they know is town and want to pocket, but who they might need to switch off at some point
b) he "suspected nanook" but never provided any clear reasoning and has never really buried nanook... he has also not asked nanook any probing questions or engaged him, in this game distancing is more valuable than it ordinarily would...
c) now that we are at mylo he isn't pushing nanook any more but is pushing me with axe as his solve, he has dropped his nanook sus (which might make sense to you, but doesn't make sense to me, and so probably shouldn't make sense to the person who has been the most sus of nanook all game)

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:07 pm What I've seen and heard of Axe makes me think the whole "caring about pushing reads" thing doesn't apply to him lol

Soz if my lack of response made you sound unheard, it was just that you ended on the thought I probably would've tried to steer you towards anyway so I decided to just let that thought simmer

wow this is pretty defensive tho lol

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:15 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:10 pm That also brings me to my next magic trick. I think Axe is town still and that C4/Nook is the solve.

i don’t think c4/nook can be teamed

Maybe I am a dunce, but Axe has had more conviction in his solve today than the other two. What you and Jay were describing before about floundering because your mischops die applies more to Nanook and C4 than it does to Axe.

For me he is the town between the three.

What is obvious to me is that it is not you and/or Jay because you would not need to side with me here to win if it was either of you since 3 other players believe me to be mafia. Axe has articulated his reason for suspecting me better than the other three have. Nanook and C4 in fact really just haven't at all. The one of the three who has handled me the poorest is Nook.

So... let's talk about how/why it can't be C4/Nook then.

That also brings me to my next magic trick. I think Axe is town still and that C4/Nook is the solve.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:14 pm Mac is obviously a wolf.

I'm really not dude. The fact you can't find a 2nd is probably the smoking gun for you to realise this.

Tbh this is draining and annoying and the only one I really wanted to do is Axe and that's more than done so I'm not gonna continue sorry lol. I've got better shit to do.

Like start to tinfoil Jay.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:33 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:13 pm If I ignore all notions of building a total game theory and just give flat reads of players in isolation, it'd look something like this:

c4e5g3d5
Hally

NotAnAxehole
MacDougall


Dyslexicon
DrWilgy

Nanook
Master Radishes

why is c4 your top town?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:33 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:29 pm As for c4, I am not really bothered by his SOD2, but I don't oppose him facing the music a bit so to speak. He'll have to earn his keep.

so your top town is something you're not that sure of?

Reeee?

Part 3 - Push but not really

After the above occurred, I had started redressing the confidence on my Axe read mostly due to the fact that I found myself defending a position I was never really that confident on and started to think "if these people are that confident maybe they are just correct". Axe himself started producing some content that I didn't really think much of either, and Alison got a lot townier (to the point where I ended up one of the few people townreading her day 1 and one of the few people who didn't end up voting for her).

Come day 2, I make this somewhat memeish read.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:51 pm So the only person in both their POE is me, and I am town... Alison had four names above NAA and Marmot had NAA in there. I shielded NAA a lot on day 1. So the mafia are clearly me and NAA. Except I am town.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:51 pm [VOTE: NotAnAxehole] aubergine?

I didn't really believe he was outed via this, though I clearly was analysing the dead town's suspects in a way that most mafia just never bother doing (especially mafia who the dead town are suspectful of).

Part 2 - The part where Mac gets suspected by half the game for shielding Axe

Taking into consideration that I have developed this apparent "hell bussing" meta (that I don't agree that I have but like, I know many of y'all do). I stumble upon Axe being hard pushed by Hally and Alison. I am at the time kinda feeling like I am just seeing the same Axe as always. The guy who just doesn't care all that much and has no agenda.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:40 pm hmmm I think Radishes can definitely be mafia here tbh. His iso is way worse than axe's.

So, in the world in which I am mafia with Axe, I pick Radishes out to throw up as an option over Axe. I make this tactical decision instead of simply attacking Alison further (who I was already voting for and scumreading at that point in the game) and highlighting that Axe would be town by virtue of being pushed be "obvious mafia Alison" (I am just sharing what I would do here as actual mafia). Rather, due to the fact that I in fact don't have info and am not convinced enough that Alison is mafia to play it that way, I click the ISO link to find Radishes has an equally short ISO to Axe. I read them both and, being somewhat confirmation biased, read Radishes as worse than Axe. I am further confirmation biased by the fact that Radishes ISO, while maybe I overexaggerate that it was much worse than Axe's, is definitely not really any better, is not copping stick at all about it. Which is a typical way I find mafia. That is to say that I look for scummy slots that are not being pushed by scummy slots.

So I throw out my POE

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:42 pm My POE is

Alison

Radishes/Wilgy

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:44 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:44 pm The standard of town has elevated since page 1 so I will be open to MR suspicion. I don't really vibe with it maaaaaaan but he gon have to do things himself

iso him and axe and tell me some specific reasons Radishes feels townier than axe if you can

Demonstrate my belief in my read by pleading to Jay's wisdom to go and recognise what I am saying is true and come back to the thread and tell everyone how amazingly correct I was.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:46 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:47 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:44 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:39 pm c4 going against the grain on MR and making that catch on him is the villageriest thing itt so far

can i help you?

Probably not, I think you're mafia proxy Alison and I don't understand the point of this read on C4 / it almost seems like TMI for the sake of pocketing.

this read is pretty townie

I had been asked to express why anything that Axe had posted in his iso had been townie to that point. I cite this one (force it if I am being honest cuz it's clearly not that townie) but I at least attempt to justify it by presenting this. The reason I thought it was townie is because it felt like a natural read for someone who had been suspecting C4 to make.
^ some more evidence I cite and why. It's all just reasonable defense of someone I thought was town. Though I am being forced to defend a position that I don't actually believe in all that much honestly. Which has happened again since (Hally overexaggerating my mild tinfoil on her earlier today).