The Syndicate

Turnip Head wrote:Quin

Early in the game I gave Quin a town read, I felt like I could understand his actions. As the game has progressed, I find myself growing increasingly paranoid about his intentions I wouldn't mind putting a little pressure on him.

Scotty wrote:I can't quote more than 7 times, but in answer to Sloonei switching to Epi today:

No. I don't think he looks great but I am NOT moving from Boomslang today. I'm going to be an entrenched old fart and stick to one at a timez

Epignosis wrote:

Quin wrote:

Sloonei wrote:I might put Epi and sig ahead of chaindeath on the lynching block

What's your case for Epi? I am not opposed.

What's your case? I'm not opposed.

Scotty wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Assuming llama was specifically chosen for the kill by the chief, my immediate inclination is to assume it was intended to frame Quin, who has enough enemies remaining in the thread that him just killing a threat isn't a strategically viable solution as a baddie. indiglo being killed was likely the result of her being well out of lynch territory.

If you're a highly-trusted player and you're not dead, I recommend you re-calibrate your reads. Someone is probably letting you stick around because they expect you to do something detrimental to your team.

Or that they're eliminating people that are pushing for lynches for people.
But I have had more interest in Quin for longer, so why wasn't I killed earlier? Why is Pirsoner not dead yet? Why does Starbucks have a secret menu?

There's might be validity in the framing Quin thinking. But I'm honestly floundering either way. Things look bleak, but a Boom lynch will help frame a few things at least.

Sloonei wrote:I might put Epi and sig ahead of chaindeath on the lynching block

Sloonei wrote:

Quin wrote:

Sloonei wrote:

Quin wrote:I'm voting chaindeath as a secondary lynch option. I think it's important to have one.

Good point. Why chaindeath?

Quin thinks chaindeath has ridden coattails throughout the entire game. A quick ISO of chaindeath allowed Quin to realise that he has not provided a single piece of evidence to justify scum or civ reads for any player, yet he has given reads on almost everybody at this point. Nerolunar is the exception, and his is only a very weak case that he keeps coming back to, but does not build upon. Quin feels as though chaindeaths posts are activity for activities sake. He has provided a few hypotheticals which are so outrageous that Quin is struggling to see any legitimate thought in them. Quin ultimately feels like chaindeath is just making up his game as he goes along.

I can see all of this being the signs of a townie who's just behind on the thread and unfamiliar with the environment. Of course, you'd be in those same shoes yourself, and I don't think anyone, chaindeath included, would argue that you haven't been more active than he has. I see a lot of "unfamiliar townie" hallmarks in the case against chaindeath, my own case included.

Sloonei wrote:

Quin wrote:I'm voting chaindeath as a secondary lynch option. I think it's important to have one.

Good point. Why chaindeath?

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Sloonei wrote:Linki: I guess we have to lynch Boomslang today

Is that what we have to do?

No, but he was supposed to be killed during the night but that didn't happen.

S~V~S wrote:@Quin, if you could stop with the snark it might help. Apparently you don;t like me,and that is OK. but can you tone it back? It isn;t helping me read.

S~V~S wrote:

Quin wrote:

S~V~S wrote:You saying that makes me more likely to think Sloonei may have a point.

We have had games with unlynchable baddies. It didn't break the game.

And how did town win in said game with unlynchable baddies, hmm?

They got NKed.

S~V~S wrote:And people i don't trust discounting speculation on this topic makes me want to trust him less not more.

S~V~S wrote:ebwop, I so don't trust you.

S~V~S wrote:You saying that makes me more likely to think Sloonei may have a point.

We have had games with unlynchable baddies. It didn't break the game.

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Sloonei wrote:I don't think we should be content to assume that Turnip Head was not lynched for the obvious reason. There could be a number of possible explanations for yesterday's lack of results.

Like what?

My first thought was that perhaps he's the warden and the warden can't be arrested. That role description is extremely vague and could entail just about anything. If not that, perhaps there is some other behind the scenes mechanic that can stop a lynch from happening. I'm not sure I believe either of these possibilities are what prevented the lynch, but I'm not ruling things out.

Epignosis wrote:

Quin wrote: I could build a time machine, I suppose, but that might take too long.

If you built a time machine, would the time it took you build it matter?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Quin wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Quin wrote:

I didn't say "Quin is obviously a bad guy and should be lynched right now", I said "a decent argument can be made". Are you not even willing to grant that?

I suppose so. But given the result and previous NKA, an argument could be made for anybody who voted for Turnip. I'll have a good look through that when day begins.

Scotty and llama hate your guts. How are you going to turn them into believers?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Quin wrote:

I didn't say "Quin is obviously a bad guy and should be lynched right now", I said "a decent argument can be made". Are you not even willing to grant that?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

Scotty wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

S~V~S wrote:Just becasue she misjudged YOU (which just about everyone did) does not make her bad.

I know that, like I said it's the timing of everything that concerns me. I admit I have a biased point of view on this.

Is bleck ruck yuoor strungest cese-a? Bork Bork Bork!

I don't know. I haven't even read back to see how I got lynched yet.

We spent essentially the whole day phase deciding as a group whether to lynch you or Boomslang. Towards the end, the momentum moved in your direction. I think the case against you was a truly strong one so I can't immediately fault anyone for voting for you. When I look at the tally and try to find opportunists, I think the most likely candidates on your wagon are Elohcin (Serge) and chaindeath. A decent argument could be made against Quin and Dom too.

sig wrote:

Quin wrote:I'm hypothetically back in action, but don't get your hopes up. My internet provider is about as reliable as sig's votes are

I've reliable been on every mislynch thank you very much Quin.



oh wait nvm.

thellama73 wrote:Guys, can we please lynch Quin tomorrow?

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Quin wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Quin, chaindeath, and Elohcin votes are all meh.

lol wut

did you not see my post that i had th as my #2?

This does not inspire confidence:

Quin wrote:Gonna change to turnip, because now I'm worried I'm voting him based on inactivity. Mind you, under normal circumstances I'd be keen to vote out inactives. It's a matter of principle.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Quin, chaindeath, and Elohcin votes are all meh.

Sloonei wrote:

Quin wrote:I think that if the seemed posed as the secret role, they'd have to make up the rolecard themselves. I've always thought that.

Interesting thought. What makes you believe that?

indiglo wrote:

Quin wrote:I think that if the seemed posed as the secret role, they'd have to make up the rolecard themselves. I've always thought that.

Are you hosting this game?

Interesting answer from MP. I am nearly out of brain juice, so I am not sure how to resolve it at this time.


Ok, read Mongoose/Draconus... I'm not getting Scum vibes there. Moving on to Serge before the brain craps out completely. Woo hoo!

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I get the vibe that if something has happened to Scotty, it was perpetrated by Quin. I also don't necessarily think that should be seen as a reason to suspect Quin.

Scotty wrote:Cell me-a crezy boot I hefe-a zee strungest feeleeng thet oone-a ooff zee secret rules ere-a steell in pley. Boot I cun't poot my feenger oon vhy... Bork Bork Bork!

Scotty wrote:I agree that them talking will hopefully broaden the scope of the game a bit too. More content= more to draw on.

The fact that Boom is not one of those that switched out tells me all I need to know about his alignment.

Quin, you're next in my book when Boom flips bad. You only just voted for him when his badiness is irrefutable.

chaindeath wrote:

Quin wrote:Voted chaindeath pending his answer the 509's question and what 509 has to say about it.

Chaindeath wonders why Quin puts so much trust into 509.

thellama73 wrote:

Quin wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Well, call me crazy, but I still think It's Quin.

Prisoner, note that Epignosis, whom you suspect, and Quin, whom I suspect, are both voting for chaindeath. Classic scapegoatery.

You would have said this regardless of who I voted.

It's impossible to predict the future or alternate realities with any accuracy.

thellama73 wrote:Well, call me crazy, but I still think It's Quin.

Prisoner, note that Epignosis, whom you suspect, and Quin, whom I suspect, are both voting for chaindeath. Classic scapegoatery.

Epignosis wrote:

Quin wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:No one is going to lynch you and you get to vote. In terms of kills (or arrests), you are a free square.

Agreed. Baddies might be concerned that killing me is impossible though, because I am a unique game mechanic made human and who knows what that implies.

Separate question. Do you think ika was the seemer?

Nope. Still don't.

You would have two Mafia lined up nice and pretty for the Day 2 lynch. One of them is a useful role at Night, the surveillance specialist. The other is a useful role during the Day, the seemer. So ika the seemer lynches Fuzz the surveillance guy with borrowed votes?

That's too much for me to believe.

Silverwolf wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.

I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.

I still don't think she's right about ika.

If ika was lynched on Day 2, do you think Fuzz would have survived Day 3?

I do. Has the runner up in any lynch gotten lynched the next Day phase?

Sloonei wrote:Re: Silverwolf; I interpreted her reaction as Silverwolf believing that ika had to be bad, and suspecting that he had perhaps set himself up to look like the stool pigeon in preparation for his fale flip as the seemer. So, just speculation. I am not reading into her death as a sign that she had to be right or onto something.

Epignosis wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:No one is going to lynch you and you get to vote. In terms of kills (or arrests), you are a free square.

Agreed. Baddies might be concerned that killing me is impossible though, because I am a unique game mechanic made human and who knows what that implies.

Separate question. Do you think ika was the seemer?

Nope. Still don't.

You would have two Mafia lined up nice and pretty for the Day 2 lynch. One of them is a useful role at Night, the surveillance specialist. The other is a useful role during the Day, the seemer. So ika the seemer lynches Fuzz the surveillance guy with borrowed votes?

That's too much for me to believe.

Silverwolf wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I actually considered for a moment that SW might have the role ika flipped as, but her initial reaction to the lynch would seem to reject that theory.

I have "reasons" for thinking ika is the seemer.

I still don't think she's right about ika.

Epignosis wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Epignosis, I have no idea what you think of Turnip Head. Do you think anything of Turnip Head?

Turnip Head has a tell when he's bad. When I say that, I don't mean it's a definitive, "Turnip Head is for sure Mafia" tell, but it is something very specific I've observed him do several times when he is bad.

I haven't seen it here yet. Take that for what it's worth.

On the other hand, I read your exchange with Turnip Head and thought your point about the inconsistency regarding significant others was a good one. Turnip Head says you're twisting his words and taking them out of context. On the surface, I don't agree with him, but I'd rather look at his posts and be the judge of that myself.

Context or not, his ika vote was shit, as was most of them.

As of now, Turnip Head isn't on my list.

Spoiler: show

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Trying this again, EBWOP. Sorry to repost the whole thing, but I want the context all nestled into a logical place.



I am looking closely at the current alignment ratio (if that wasn't already obvious ). I thought it would be a good idea to draw out a projection for the game to come to determine exactly how many lynches we might have to work with, because that would be hugely beneficial towards the effort of narrowing our pools to a small enough number of people that the baddies simply cannot escape no matter how many there are (assuming the town squad is not infiltrated by a masterbaddie). The above chart reflects that effort.

It's likely unclear. The numbers provided display, by my math/estimation, how many mislynches town can afford to have from this point on without losing the game. I accounted for numerous variables, to include how many people die tonight (the far left margin shows those possibilities), and how many people will die in each ensuing night.

Note: this is just a baseline, and some variables cannot be accounted for without increasing the workload tremendously. The chart math is based on the same number of people dying/being arrested every night (always 0, always 1, or always 2). This is obviously unlikely. With that in mind, it'd have to serve as a starting point upon which later adjustments can be made if necessary when night kills have dropped.

The "maximum" column is there for completism, it's extremely unlikely that will be reflected in this game. The "minimum" column is worst-case scenario. The "projected" column is the most likely on average. You can see that under most possible circumstances, the number of remaining mislynches before town loses this game is *3*. It's possible that can change.

With this in mind, I think we need to try to create a pool of EIGHT suspects that enough of us agree on that we can work through it without as much risk of stubbornness/lone-wolf combat that will destroy the game. I specifically say EIGHT suspects, because that number accounts for FIVE BADDIES, AND THREE MISLYNCHES (based on the common projection of 3 in the chart).

This might be extremely confusing, I don't know. Ask me about it if so. Also the image might be broken which would be super annoying, so lemme know if that's the case.

Son of a bitch, they have a better math program in prison than we do in public school.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Everyone who knows him best: is there any reason you think we should be concerned about llama? I've been comfortable with him because of his sporadic appearances and tunneling, but I don't want to give him a permanent hall pass based on meta.

thellama73 uses intense tunnel vision to mask his alignment, whether good or bad. That's what he's done here. I can't knock him for it, because it keeps people guessing about him. I have trouble forming an opinion on him either way.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

indiglo wrote:How about the list?

I don't think anyone on this roster of players had any reason to kill Silverwolf except Epignosis. I also don't think it was an attempt to frame him, because there can be no more difficult a framejob than one on the hornet's nest. Many of the doubts about what happened on Day 2 are resolved theoretically by a Fuzz-ika-Epignosis cop team dynamic, and his involvement also plays into the way he handled Silverwolf's suspicion of ika pre-lynch and suspicion that he was the seemer post-lynch.

I (obviously) don't agree with you. I would venture a guess that she got arrested because she's not on anyone's list of eight.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Spoiler: show

Epignosis wrote:I'm not talking just votes. I'm talking suspicion in general. This marks three days of "sig's bad" to "nah, not going to vote sig today." If sig is bad, I'm going to tear this thread apart looking for the people who kept their kid gloves on and why.

Time permitting.

Spoken like a man who knows sig's alignment already and is preemptively setting up fisticuffs after what he thought would be a looming lynch.

He's on Boomslang's team because he held his vote on unlynchables (sig and chain) throughout Day 6 and only moved to Boomslang after the ika wagon had swelled to its apex.

I had every intention of voting Boomslang if no one was going to lynch sig. I implied as much.

Quin wrote:Epignosis made a bold claim that he had good reason not to vote Wilgy back in day 2 or 3. That infers BTSC. Immediately after this post Wilgy came after Epi with claws out. I took it initially as scummy, but went back on that after a while. I think it is time to bring that out of the mud again.

I thought I had Wilgy's role figured out due to something he said. Turns out I was incorrect. I thought he was claiming to be a hitman and was actually announcing his kill in the thread so the Don could pick up on it.

++++

I see there's a lot more, but I'm posting anyway.

Spoiler: show

He has switched his vote to Ika to kill the tie. He doesn't understand how he's bad but if the town wishes it this civ will turn himself in and let the cops roll through another night phase.

Spoiler: show

Quin wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
Prisoner 640326 wrote:
I didn't think that far ahead I'm afraid.
How do you plan to use your time in this free thread?


What do you have to say to my lynch chain? Specifically where I mention you and golden. I haven't got a clue how to do hyperlinks, but it's the first post on page 99.


He is unsure of weather you are referring to your own lynch or your vote. He doesn't want to see you go if that's what you're asking but if it's about trying to lych Scotty then I don't think it would be a bad move, probably. He isn't particularly fond of this phrase from Scotty "
Oh man I want to lynch you. Teacher! Teacher! May I vote twice, like the Warden? I'll be a good boy, I swear!"

If this isn't what you're looking for Quin let him know.

Spoiler: show

Matt 2.0

Spoiler: show

Can someone hook up chaidneath with a tldr of the day so far? He has classwork to do and not enough time to read through 400+ posts from the time he was away. To the direct accusations at him he would like to say if you lynch him you lynch a townie. There is no way to make this clearer that he knows of. He is going to vote Nero because he still thinks he's bad. All aboard the train hes going into a tunnel (or has been in one for a while).