The Syndicate

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:
GTH reads after everything that's happened today, with a few exclusions.

Civ:
INH
Marmot
Long Con
Silver
Golden
speedchuck
Scotty

Bad:
3J
JOH
Sloonei
nutella
Dizzy
Fredwood
How much do you still agree with this rainbow, Quin?

Literally one of my supposed scumbuddies is undecided on me. The rest are saying I'm at the top of their scum list.

Who are my buddies? (Trick question. I don't have any. Answer anyway.)
Quin?

nutella, dizzy and Jay went up. Adding Eloh up as a civ. Scotty moved down. Removing Long Con entirely.

Dyslexicon wrote:
Soneji wrote:I saw Nutella cleared JJJ, though I'm not sure I exactly trust that. Nutella had been being buddy-buddy with JJJ early on and I don't care for JJJ's vote history.
Nutella's push was maybe the biggest reason the Marmot lynch gained traction, so what's not to trust about it?

If JJJ ever ends up scum, Soneji is scum buddies.
But lol. I'm done tinfoiling JJJ. He's sure town.

I tinfoil a baddie trio of 3J, nutella and Sloonei. I had to use up three rolls of the stuff for this one.

Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
<snip>

lol, I literally said it in the post. Based of the bickering between the 3 of you, my assumption is that one is scum trying to confuse the sheep from following blindly. If you pro and con it, JJJ and Golden have more pros then you (eluded to some specific instances in the post and some others that I chose not to get into because I have mentioned them previously), so thus (POE) you are trailing in the civ read department atm. I said that I don't think it's a strong enough case to lynch you at the moment, but apparently this is the way the wind is blowing. I'm a careful and patient voter, and I don't think I'm just a follower, I will say that I will be unlikely to vote for you this phase barring some dramatic revelation or argument that I hadn't considered, but I do think I've been nothing if consistent in my reads of everyone, which I admit may just be confirmation bias.
Fred, who are you looking at voting for this round?

link - I don't know what a "typical is"

Scotty, Soneji

I think INH is a possible lynch and would be fine with lynching. But his aggressiveness has at least been consistent.

Speaking of...hello

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
juliets wrote:
Quin wrote:Vote JOH

Because shapes.
Ok, I was trying not to place the 5th vote but since its been placed I am voting now. I'm not sure I understand what the hammer vote is.

Vote JOH
Wait...am I already dead?

No, you're in soft lynch territory. You need like 10 or 11 for the hard lynch.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Fred, what are you thinking? Who is scum? Who is town?

Don't be neutral. I will give you slack later for ill conceived arguments as long as you actually make some reads.

It'll be good for you.

Not a big fan of this post. Can you explain what you were trying to do here? Specifically in when you prematurely said you'd give him slack for his reads? Why would it be good for him?

Fredwood wrote:
speedchuck wrote:
Long Con wrote: You mean lynching Marmot for credit, right?
Yes, that's what I was looking for.

I could go into a long rant about how that doesn't make sense. How scum would lose more than they gain. How tin-foily and non-occam's razor it is.

But all that would do is show you that I've thought it through. Probably. I don't usually think things out before I say them, this post being an example.
So don't give me any credit. Don't rely on my Marmot lynch. Look at me, in this game, outside of the lynch which is either a crazy bus or confirmed town move.

Ignoring the lynch (which I haven't been trying to ride on, even as much as Sloonei has, if you'd notice that), do I seem scummy to you?

@Fredwood
I said I had to reeval. That was not a typo. Reevaluate. You might come off looking better if I get the chance to go back and look. Might come off worse. Someone mentioned worse. I got to look and I don't have time to dig tonight.

Dyslexicon wrote:
speedchuck wrote: @Dizzy
Believe it's JoH. Gonna look at INH if I get a second tonight. I really shouldn't be on this forum right now, I have deadlines. :s
Then why did you say Jack had a town reason for asking who his teammates was? Or did you misread my post? I explicitly asked him what his town reasons was for asking that - and you said you see what he's doing (as town???).
Scum do towny things sometimes, or this wouldn't be so easy. I am currently looking through Jack's friends/whatever to answer his question for myself. The vote might come off if I feel like the answer warrants it.
Oh ok, my bad, so far everyone seems to have a shifting sense of the rainbow with their reads sometimes changing on a whim, so it only seems fair.

To this point, Aside from Quin, no one has really asked me anything to defend or pushed on me aside from

" DUNNO, I dun like him "

I like to be different.

Spoiler: show

And this post, which is the one giving me formatting issues.

The first two are justified, being the initial statement and an elaboration. The rest are brought up on his own power, without prompting by anybody else.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Same question, here.

You think I'm scum? Who are my buddies?

(Spoiler alert. I am town.)
If you're town, then why are you asking this?
It serves no purpose as town.

Also, answer me, why were you so occupied with if you were linked to Quin or Sloonei?
Cause I've been strictly against several of the players I'm supposedly teammates with, according to my accusers. Makes no sense. They should reconsider.

I wasn't occupied with the link. I dismissed it. JJJ questioned my dismissal. I explained my dismissal. The end. People stop asking me about it and I'll stop talking about it.

Tying to format a post just so I can point out that this is a lie, but I can't quote 7 quotes or something again.

Dyslexicon wrote: Quin - probably town, but omg.

This is what happens when you let Quin be JaggedJimmyJay.

yall need to vote in the poll btw

ok, format.

Here, Jack. I don't know where the remembrance on 3J's part was, can you point it out? I made a mistake of my own in my second comment. You had sig as a null read, not a town read.

Spoiler: show

Quin wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Spoiler: show
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Stuff about the sig votes:

Golden (1st of 10) - First to voice suspicion of sig to my memory and first to vote accordingly. I can't blame him for maintaining his perspective late in the phase when sig's final contribution was essentially to plop a pointless vote on his face. I have no immediate beefs with this vote.

speedchuck (3rd of 10) - I kind of like this post. His comments about sig are more external than personal, but I think they're still meaningful. The approach is rather Slooneian, I think, in a good way. "Are there any good reasons not to lynch sig?" is the premier example of that.

JOH (4th of 10) - In his initial rainbow he had sig in the central yellow sector. Same story in the second rainbow. He questioned Golden for his sig vote when he initially placed it. I don't know why this post exists. He was critical of sig for his late arrival to the map claiming party. He does say there that this "factored in to his sig read already", which wouldn't seem to reflect in the rainbow positions or his brief dialogue with Golden. Compares him to Wilgy when he votes. The transition from "rainbow yellow" to "lynchable" isn't quite clear. The post in which he discusses map claims is the closest representation, which I would still assert results in an unclear transition. So that isn't ideal, and I could see potential for opportunism here.

Strawhenge (6th of 10) - Strawhenge voiced some confusion and then some suspicion about sig's behavior in the map claiming scenario. He ended up voting sig to help us reach the required 6 votes for soft lynch, but also voiced a preference for a Long Con vote given his previous ISO effort. I don't think this material looks especially good or bad, and I'll read Strawhenge at face value instead (I think he looks okay).

nutella (7th of 10) - She voiced some concern with sig and soon thereafter listed him very low on her rainbow. Starting here and in her next few posts thereafter she supported my suspicion of sig and expanded on her feelings. I don't think any of this looks alarming, and her content in general looks very town to me.

Dyslexicon (8th of 10) - Gave sig a little credit for a different tone to Dizzy's last experience on the site. He gave me a little crap for my reversal on sig. I think it looks authentic. Not a fan of a sig lynch, but prefers it over Wilgy. The perspective seems to worsen here. They voiced some interest, sort of in a CFD against Elohcin. Sub-null in a late rainbow. Agreed with my beef. I think the progression here looks fine, and I appreciate that Dizzy didn't care about holding consistent to their starting read. It should be noted that there may have been some amount of self-preservation here too; I don't recall the exact tally dynamic at this point.

DrWilgy (9th of 10) - I don't know if he's actually dead, so I'll check him too. His vote was participatory but not seemingly invested. "sig gon be pissed lol". This doesn't inspire confidence.

Quin (10th of 10) - He started by prodding his way into the discussion of sig, and soon after admitted he hadn't read the case. "sig is starting to feel like a runaway wagon". He participated in it 10 minutes later. This stuff makes me shrug, which is less good than some others.

~~~

Beyond the specific appearances of each vote relative to prior sig-related content, the positions of the votes within the wagons must also be considered. I tend to hate gigantic wagons like this because they're such a cozy place for scum to nestle their little heads, but I grant that it's a necessary component of a hammer game. I would call the votes that came after #6 essentially meaningless, because the soft lynch was secured. They're comparable in value to votes that weren't placed.

The sig votes that do the least for me are JOH, Wilgy, and Quin. The former two are more of an active problem though, while Quin is, like I said, a shrug.
I feel like this post displays a fair and understandable level of suspicion against me so I will address it in that light.

"This post" exists because I was trying to determine how serious Golden was. At the time, Sig had 1 or 2 short posts and little suspicion had been leveled against him. The deadline was approaching on Valentines Day. I took the Golden vote to be a "hey Sig" which I found potentially inappropriate because Sig might not answer. So then what? Unanswered iirc.

The map Spartacus thing was factored into my Sig read, making him slightly worse than a non poster. That's where I had him and why.

Sig transitioned from low yellow to orange with his non responses and Golden vote. He became like Wigly. Few posts. No posts that I liked. As stated in my rainbow, no red reads, making orange players acceotable. HCRealms tends to have votes time out for no lynch, which I loathe. So my Sig vote was opportunistic, but not in the way you mean. When my higher suspects (LC, Nacho) seemed unavailable, I pushed in the next best thing. This play style is evident in my "this post" as well as my early attempt to lynch Quin in Unfortunate Events.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This is the most legible assembling of Nacho's reads available, that I can find. He worked off of my POE and eliminated further:

Spoiler: show
Nachomamma8 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Bad Guys R In Here:

Quin
Long Con
JOH
DrWilgy
Sorsha
speedchuck
Scotty
Elohcin
DFaraday
Dyslexicon
Nachomamma

Yeah it's a huge list. Don't care.
Remove me and speedchuck and maaaaaybe Quin and you're three steps closer to solving the game!
Why is Marmot a townread?
Quin
Long Con
JOH
DrWilgy
Sorsha/Sloonei
Scotty
Elohcin
DFaraday
Dyslexicon

This is the list reduced to his recommendations. It is important to state that I don't think Nacho's reads were God's Gift to Our Mafia Game and all perfect, but given my belief that there might be discernible kill motive, it's a decent way to explore that.

I've taken my prior assertions and removed some more names. Quin's color is "fading" given the "maaaaybe", and I remove him yet per my spilled brain matter. Scotty and Long Con too. I dropped Elohcin and DFaraday because if they're bad I Then given my sig vote checks, I highlight the overlapping potential problem area (orange). I'd call those two prominent suspects right now when I coalesce all of my brain goop into one bubbling soup.
I feel like this post is not a fair one and it further degrades my early confidence in you.

The theory you are presenting is "Nacho was confident in his reads so maybe he correctly read a scummer and the mafia silenced him." This is followed up with not a list of Nacho's scum reads, but a list of YOUR scum reads, which includes Nacho, which Nacho then takes himself and a few others off of and jokingly declares the game closer to being solved.

So if your theory is that I killed Nacho because he was "confident" that I was scum based on one joke response to your self described "huge" list of suspects for which you then crossed out half of...why didn't I just kill you instead? Indeed, you caught me fair and square in Christmas Mafia when you replaced in for Sock. Additionally, your town credit was waining at the end of the day, making you an unlikely doctor target. So again, if I'm killing players who I'm worried are on to me and my scumbuddies, why would I kill Nacho instead of you?

Let's dig a little deeper. At the time of your post declaring me potential scum, I had no posts. Do you think your read on me prior to me making any posts holds weight? Do you think Nacho's jokey agreement with it holds weight?

You crossed off several players from your early scum list as not likely to kill Nacho (lol) on night 1 for meta reasons. I'm doing so, you've also POEd them from the list of Nacho's (your) suspects. Yet in truth, it is an 11 suspect list in a 21 player game. Do you think that anyone would be rightly worried about being on an 11 player suspect list? Or an 8 player one?

Let's look at Nacho's actual reads and interactions with me, which you've presumably read.

Spoiler: show
Nachomamma8 wrote:Other people that could die are Soneji for his perspective on Silver Lantern who is painfully and unmistakably obvtown, and Scotty for lame presence this game when he had awesome presence as town last game and underwhelming presence as scum.

I think Strawhenge joins Silver Lantern and Fred for my "bet the farm" townreads, feel pretty good about the big three in Quin/JJJ/Golden so far although incidentally those three is where I'm the most cautious in my townreading.

Also townreading nutella and INH and probably other people to a degree less than the SUPATOWN group but more than the big three. Am sure that I'm missing things but too tired to figure out what, fading out now.
Actual scum reads from Nacho? Scotty and Sonjei. He also expresses confidence in the Dizzy train. Later, he walks back from Dizzy and Sonjei.

I give Nacho grief for the above post and we have a bit of back and forth during which Nacho expresses no real suspicion of either me or Wigly and admits that his overconfidence is in part an act/tactic and not necessarily a representation of his read confidence.
Spoiler: show
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: *snip*

I don't like Nachos's "okay, I've found scum" and "these folks are obviously town" posts. Like, bro, you had me fooled last game but I don't get the impression you're THAT good, know what I mean? Has Sorsha/Sonjei's problem of me only ever playing with scum Nacho (and 10 years ago over the top bulldog townie Nacho) so I can't answer "but would he do this anyway as a townie?"

*snip*

ORANGE
Sorsha
Nacho
Sonjei
That guy who looks like Scotty but isn't Scotty. Who was like "I lied about my town read"
RED
Dizzy

Nachomamma8 wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:Jack: I'm not that good, but the reason why I'm considered as aggressive as I am is because I often use strongly worded rhetoric to make points that I feel strongly about/want people to zero in on for some reason. I'm confused why you think it's a scumtell for me when I mislynched you in such spectacular fashion last time you saw me as town and it certainly wasn't a big part of my game when I was scum unless I'm missing something completely.
Being forward and aggressive isn't scummy.

Acting like your job is done, patting yourself on the back and then coasting is. Not sure if you've actually coasted but hey, appropriate response to appropriate level of scumminess in my eyes. Minor. But more than most players at this point.

You never declared your work done when you got me lynched way back when.
Oh, that makes more sense.

Finding a silver platter slip is different from pushing through a strong scumread, the "my work is done, I'm voting scum" wasn't implying that I caught Dizzy or anything to that effect; I was merely noting that it was less urgent for me to catch up that second and was considering sleeping, but ended up catching up anyways.
Based on all of the above, JJJ, I consider you placing me as your "top suspect" and your reasons for doing so to be disingenuous.
Had a look at the highlighted for more context. First though is that this douchebag's already got 6 pages of content. Slow it down, you're busy, remember? I'm not a fan of this. It's a POE list, and the entire premise is that you go on that list until you've shown that you deserve not to be. Not having posted is a guarantee that you'd be on that list, so this is a silly argument to make.

I agree with the observation that 3J made about Jack's read on sig 'factoring into his existing read' not being reflected in his posts. I see that sig was leaning town on his rainbow list before this. My impression of Jack after being his teammate in ASOUE is that he doesn't keep he thoughts to himself very much. I'm more likely to call this a contradiction than a case of Jack just not having said everything that was on his mind.

Vote JOH

Because shapes.

I could vote JOH. I didn't like my interactions with him one bit yesterday. 3J pointed out some stuff against him as well which I agreed with.

Giving 3J his civ read. What a beggar

Nothing speedchuck has said so far has given me a reason to give him that extra bit of scrutiny. That isn't an especially good or bad thing, hell it's probably my own fault because he's been by no means inactive. But from my perspective, he's just 'there'.

Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:
Sloonei wrote:I might be willing to vote for Jay.
Speak, my child.
I'm tired and on my phone, but that big post he made responding to my interactive analysis of him felt off, particularly the section nutella highlighted. He spent a good chunk of time explaining why he wouldn't do something (express a null read on a teammate) instead of simply explaining why he had a null read. He was focused on explaining why he's not scum instead of sharing his thought process.

coooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool beaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaans

I'll come give some updated thoughts later. Pretty sure I've given him plenty of attention in my posts if you want to look. I do think the Nacho kill is a point in his favour, but he doesn't dictate the kill so it's only a little one.

Sloonei wrote:I might be willing to vote for Jay.

Speak, my child.

Sloonei wrote:Or simply express your concerns, if you're worried about leading. I assure you that I am town.

this was @ quin. hello nutella, tell me what you think of Scotty.

I'll express my biggest concern, and I feel like it makes some things too obvious to care to argue further.

Your justification for voting marmot yesterday is so close to being satisfying. The fact that it's almost on the mark is specifically what satisfies me the most. On the other hand, I have my doubts about whether what you said were all of your thoughts and nothing else. That would be less good.

Whether that makes sense or not is

but I guess this is a better position for you, anyway.

Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:I feel alright about Scotty. I put him in my GTH civ list because of my suspicion of Sloonei.

I have nothing else to say about him.
Do you still suspect me?

Don't know. I want to ask you some more stuff but I don't want to lead you on.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:If double targeting isn't a thing, I'd recommend giving him another shot and if he fails to deliver...
If double targeting is a thing, he can get roleblocked again. Lynch or don't, there are no hall passes.

If that's the case. It's not explicitly said in the rules.

Sloonei wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Sloonei wrote:I want to shift the focus of all the discussion onto Scotty. Everyone talk about Scotty. I command it.
I have no reason to town read him. I don't know that a blank interactive analysis necessarily means he's evil since I do see those often with civilians when I take on the same workload.

But there's nothing in his posts that I have seen that say to me "oh, there's civilian Scotty". I'd lynch him. He actually just gave me shit for my tracker claim not being accountable when I believe he soft claimed exactly something very early in the game. I don't know what it was. Did that ever become a hard claim? I haven't read everything.
Some of us threatened him with votes yesterday and he said he could verify his something claim in the night if we'd just leave him alive, and then when the thread opened back up on Day 3 he said "aw phooey, i was blocked."

If double targeting isn't a thing, I'd recommend giving him another shot and if he fails to deliver...

Sloonei wrote:I still have a residual town read on LoRab every time I see her thanks to Mad Max. I could see her walking down the street and I'd let everyone around me know that she's definitely town.

I was thinking about how she tied it at EoD the other day. I thought about how beautiful it would have been if the roles were reversed and she was bad while pulling that stunt.

I feel alright about Scotty. I put him in my GTH civ list because of my suspicion of Sloonei.

I have nothing else to say about him.

Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:I cannot wait for Sloonei to get to me, because I'm pretty sure all I've talked about with marmot is fluff.
I clicked on your ISO, did one quick Ctrl + F, and left.

Appropriate.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:meh
Remember that time I POE'd the civilians down to the Dom/Quin dichotomy that defined the double-LyLo?

Remember when you killed me before I could finish you off?

You played a great game though obviously. This post might be OT but whatever.

I'm pretty sure I killed you because you were the doctor. Not 100 percent sure what my reason was. Won't deny getting rid of you just for the sake of it was part of it, though.

I cannot wait for Sloonei to get to me, because I'm pretty sure all I've talked about with marmot is fluff.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Sloonei wrote:So what changed between your PoE list and your "no reason to town read" list?
Time passed. In the immediate aftermath of the map claims I gave Marmot a bit of a berth, and then as his posts went nowhere from that point I progressively cared less about that. Marmot was in my PoE originally anyway, I deliberately didn't list him because of said map. That's what I was trying to nudge to Nacho when he asked me.

Anyway, that one point where I gave the "nullest of null" reads on Marmot should clue y'all in that I am not his teammate. I am literally the guy who analyzes the hell out of dead scum interactions in every game I play, and that means I am very well-versed in what sells and what does not. I don't give you a useless waffle on my teammate because that does nothing to benefit me or my team -- it only leaves me open to answering questions like this later. I know better. Take it or leave it I guess.

I don't follow Jack at all in the bus driver discussion. I don't see why there's any reason to assume anything about either Fred's or my alignment. The most basic value of a re-directing role is that it prevents the civilians from handling the night phase the way they want to -- it promotes a chaotic information environment. There are a ton of different theories one could apply to Marmot's purported actions, assuming he is responsible for the target discrepancy Golden has reported, that work out for three of the four possible alignment arrangements between Fredwood and I. Town-Town, Mafia-Town, and Town-Mafia. The only one that I'd struggle to see a scenario for is Mafia-Mafia, not counting my own inherent knowledge of my alignment. Because I am me, I am generally a likely target for whatever. Doctors love to protect me, jailers love to jail me, cops love to ID me, watchers love to watch me, etc. Shit, in recent memory even vigilantes love to shoot me. Bus driving me with anyone is by default a near-sure means of making certain the role has value that night, because someone's JJJ target will get screwed up.

Even if you're discussing the matter of a cop, the idea still holds in a Town-Town scenario. The scum would stand to lose a lot if I am confirmed town by a cop, because I am a much more potent threat when I am not hindered by accusations (see: Turf Wars, Mad Max, and the latter half of ROTTK). By swapping me with a different townie a less threatening ID is assured. And that's only for a cop, which is already a speculative thing.

At the end of the day we're still talking about Marmot, perhaps the player on this roster least inclined toward actual strategy. He does whatever he wants on a whim.

meh

Long Con wrote:Quin, are you aware of being targeted night 1?

No. I am alive and all of my five limbs are securely attached to my abdomen. I don't think it's necessary for him to info dump.

I was actually talking about sharing the identity of the person who targeted me, but Scotty makes a point worth pointing.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Thanks for taking on the workload, Sloonbeard. I understand your trepidation with my Marmot stuff. You look very town in the assessment. My read on Marmot hinged a bit on his map claim. I thought it quite plausible he had the map since I was lying in part to cover him (and the little campaign with INH on Day 0 allowed him to have at least one vote I could identify). I didn't go after him since I thought he might have the map, and I didn't give him credit either since his map claim was first. When I gave Nacho that vague "might not be a town read" comment, I had the map in mind. Of the claimants to the map, I thought Marmot was the more likely to be a mafia gambit if untrue -- just because of his personality and style.

Anyway I am a 2-shot tracker and already used both. I thought my mappiness and my JJJness might get me killed early.

Player X targeted Quin on Night 1. I'll reveal who if given a good reason. This was what I was poking Quin about before.

Player Y targeted nobody last night. I'll again witthold the name for the time being. I don't know whether it's an unused shot or a passive role, and the distinction may be best kept quiet.

You have absolutely no reason to share that information.

But I also think Dys looks pretty good based on her interactions and marmot vote.

Sloonei wrote:One thing I've picked up on in this ambitious exercise: Dyslexicon is the towniest player in the game based solely on Metalmarsh's ISO.

I disagree. I am the ultimate townie. No townie has ever towned as town as I am towning in this game.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Sloonei wrote:or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.
Something something. Santa Claus. Something something. All in one night.

How do you guys read Quin's reaction to JJJ or Fred being on the chopping block. Fella seemed eager to get away from that theory, no?

Quin, what's your current read on those two players in light of MM not actually busdriving them.
I'm the one who created it. Like.

I'm GTH'ing scum on them both.
Lol.

Imma go play video games with my wife now. Night.

'Lol' isn't very satisfying to me.

I said at the end of my post that them both being civ is a possibility, yet before that I focused on who was more likely to be bad of the two. Why did you focus on the alternative and push it as though it was my ultimate opinion as you did?

juliets wrote:I hate to interrupt but can someone explain to me what has just been discovered? Are you saying that MM did not switch Golden's action toward JJJ to Fredwood? If not, what happened?

It's extremely unlikely that the misdirection of Golden's role was caused by marmot, because Golden would have been told that the marmot targeted Fred if that was the case. I'll offer that it's possible that it just wouldn't show up because of the mechanics of the role, but I don't really believe in it.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Sloonei wrote:or ask jay how the hell he does this so quickly.
Something something. Santa Claus. Something something. All in one night.

How do you guys read Quin's reaction to JJJ or Fred being on the chopping block. Fella seemed eager to get away from that theory, no?

Quin, what's your current read on those two players in light of MM not actually busdriving them.

I'm the one who created it. Like.

I'm GTH'ing scum on them both.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Golden wrote:There was something else fishy with it as well, and I feel like I've now put myself in the position where I have to be open, which I didn't really want to be, but here goes...

I'm a watcher. I watched Jay. If marmot did what you guys are suggesting and swapped fred and jay, I should have gotten 'golden targeted fred' but I didn't. I wasn't showing as watching fred, despite the fact the results I got were for Fred. I got that no-one was targeting Fred.

It should be noted that last night I was showing as targeting the player I watched. So I've since had that confirmation.

It was a baffling result for me. I still haven't figured it out. But it isn't entirely explained by the marmot role, even if that is part of what happened.
Seems like a slender distinction. Hard to figure out how a host will work out some more intricate details. So you think that MM isn't responsible for your retargeting?
I don't know who was responsible. On the face of it, if it was marmot and only marmot that was responsible, I would have thought I would see that I was targeting fred.

I might just ask sprit. Stand by.
If you didn't get MM, he didn't busdrive Fred with JJJ. You were misdirected by someone targeting you or JJJ was nexused.

*crumbles up rainbow list take three*

Glad I'm not time traveling anymore.

True.

Long Con wrote:Quin, did you say that JJJ was a townish type that people who want to target town people would choose? I don't agree with that assessment - he's gotten a share of suspicion; there's others who I think are seen as more town than him.

Not really, what I'm saying is based more on principle rather than a context-based reading, if that makes sense.

I think that roles like investigations are best suited to be used early on players like 3J. People who have some degree of lynch immunity specifically because of how big of an asset they are to town... when they're town.

Jack is forcing the most literal interpretation of my hypothesis. I'm not liking this dialogue at all.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.
Doubtful. To what end?
To the end that that's what they did. I'm not their strategist.
Oh, so you know that JJJ and Fred are both town, then?

How did you come to that conclusion?

wat

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.
Doubtful. To what end?

To the end that that's what they did. I'm not their strategist.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:
Quin wrote:Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.
Fishing. Do not like.

Combined with Quin wanting us to think JJJ and Fred are both town (he's protecting one mafia member, whoever it is) and the Sloonei accusation and Quin looks bad bad bad.

ok

Golden, if you want to, can you explain why you knew your targets had been switched? Was there an in-thread 'thing' you were expecting to see, or were you told explicitly?

This is an ironic question.

Long Con wrote:
Quin wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:
Sloonei wrote:A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.
What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.
read the sentence at the bottom.
No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.
Wouldn't that make it appear like town JJJ is bad?

I'd imagine said cop would be informed that he received Fred's results if Golden's claims are anything to go by.

Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:I just said exactly why this isn't damning for Fred.
This looks like a good time to ISO Fredwood, I think. Who wants to volunteer? I've got marmot things going on.

Not me. I've got dealing-with-borderline-fraud things going on.

I just said exactly why this isn't damning for Fred.

Sloonei wrote:
Quin wrote:
Sloonei wrote:A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.
What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.
read the sentence at the bottom.

No, this is still along the lines of a town 3J. If I'm the cop, 3J is among one of the highest priorities for a cop check. Redirecting said investigation to a scum Fredwood would be a big dumdum.

Sloonei wrote:A quick note before I dive into this marmot analysis: If we are to believe Golden's misdirect claim, and if we assume Jay is town (which I am going to do), then I am inclined to think that Golden's results reflect poorly on Fredwood. If the scum misdirector is targeting town JaggedJimmyJay, I would assume part of his motive is to deflect any potentially beneficial night actions (item deliveries, protection, etc.) onto a teammate. This requires a bit of a leap and I'm not willing to conclude anything from it, but I see it as enough reason to at least begin to speculate about Freddy.

Alternatively, Marmot redirected night actions away from ScummedScummyScay so that he couldn't be ID'd by any cops.

What about investigations? Pretty key role you left out.

Feeling better about Dizzy a bit after seeing her interactions with/about marmot. She was the first to vote for him (to my knowledge), moved off for a while but didn't dial back on her accusations and desire to lynch him. She ended up second on the train after it gained traction via nutella. It reads fine to me.

Of the two, I'd be more inclined to see Fredwood as bad just because I believe that 3J would have opposed a Nacho kill. It's possible they're both town and marmot just targeted wildly, obviously.

Golden wrote:
Quin wrote:Something to throw out there is that Nacho might not have been the intended kill given marmots role flip.

I recall Golden mentioning his actual Night 1 target wasn't who he had initially targeted. Was that person Nacho?
No. I targeted Jay and ended up targeting Fredwood.

Would you agree with me if I said that this indicates that they're very likely not both bad? I don't see a reason marmot would target two of his teammates. One, maybe.

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