The Syndicate

Congrats G-Man!

Even if you did have cop reads to help you, the fact that you were suspicious enough to check all three baddies within 5 days says a lot

I'm surprised that I wasn't completely wrong about everything this time. I was doubting myself since I consistently townread two baddies and was still alive even though I was pushing my suspicions pretty strongly

YAy

Gj to all us civs and gg!!

G-Man wrote:Bashing bunny boy's brains in for a mislynch leaves us at 5 v 1 heading into the night. Hopefully the game ends with rabbit. If not, let's use the next 24 hours to think some things out.

If rabbit is civ, then the six remaing players will be:
DrWilgy
Epignosis
G-Man
Quin
Spacedaisy
S~V~S

The working theory is that Wilgy is the civ jailer, I am the paranoid civ cop, and Spacedaisy is the indy role. That would leave the last baddie among Epi, Quin, and SVS.

Wilgy, who all have you jailed this game? The way I see it, we'd each have to pick a player to target among Epi, Quin, and SVS. It's a situation open to manipulation but we've got two lynches left if rabbit flips civ- a 4 v 1 and a 2 v 1.

Again, hopefully rabbit is the baddie or we've got a crafty baddie on our hands.

Linki: I hope so, Quin. If it's rabbit, then I managed to check all three baddies in five tries. Pretty lucky, especially since Scotty's peek was erroneous.

5.04

I agree that I can trust both you and Wilgy. I'll throw SD in because I see no reason to believe she's anything but docile. Her being indy fits my case I made against both her and rabbit early on in that they voted to lynch for the sake of lynching.

I'd say I trust SVS the least out of her and Epi. I'll probably ISO them both later on to get a better feel of how I feel about them. I don't think it'll be necessary though. I'll eat my left foot if rabbit isn't bad.

G-Man wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
G-Man wrote:Before we assume this game is over, I have a question for the host- does my (the cop's) insanity get worse with each civvie lynch or each civvie death (lynch and NK)?

I totally posted my peek without reading what Quin posted about my real role card.

5.02
Death, of any kind.
Bugger that!

If I start with 10% insanity, then I'm not as reliable as we might hope for.
Day 0 - start at 10% insane
Day 1- civ lynch, up to 20% insane
Night 1- civ NK, up to 30% insane
Day 2- civ lynch, up to 40% insane
Night 2- civ NK, up to 50% insane
Day 3- mafia lynch, down to 40% insane
Night 3- no death, remain at 40% insane
Day 4- mafia lynch, down to 30% insane
Night 4- civ NK, up to 40% insane

If my peek was wrong last night, I'm about to become a coinflip.

5.03

I didn't count 3J in my original count because he died at the same time as you checked rabbit, so I wasn't sure if it'd count.

But there are many reasons outside of your peek which scream that rabbit's bad. You should trust your peek.

AWWWWW YEAHHHHHHHHHH

There's a 70% chance that your read was accurate last night, G-Man. Assuming that each death improves or worsens in increments of 10%

Quin wrote:Patient 6 | Paranoid cop (stylised, odds). Every Night, can check a player to determine his alignment, but there is a 10% chance he will get a distorted read (a random role from a different faction) compared to the actual alignment. Odds will worsen (increase) with each civilian death during the game, maxing at 60%, yet improve (decrease) for every mafia death. Receives one free ID on another civilian at the end of D0, but it too will fall within the 10% chance of being a distorted read. The cop will not be self-aware of his sanity during the game - receives a role card that informs him of traditional cop duties, but with a slight questioning of this fact.

Here, G-Man.

Well, at least I was right about something.

This reads to me as though when the cop gets a distorted peek, he gets a peek of an existing role in the game, not a made up one. With that, I think I can believe SD's indy claim now.

Patient 6 | Paranoid cop (stylised, odds). Every Night, can check a player to determine his alignment, but there is a 10% chance he will get a distorted read (a random role from a different faction) compared to the actual alignment. Odds will worsen (increase) with each civilian death during the game, maxing at 60%, yet improve (decrease) for every mafia death. Receives one free ID on another civilian at the end of D0, but it too will fall within the 10% chance of being a distorted read. The cop will not be self-aware of his sanity during the game - receives a role card that informs him of traditional cop duties, but with a slight questioning of this fact.

Here, G-Man.

Well, at least I was right about something.

G-Man wrote:Bummer sig. Rest in peace.

My GTH reads need adjusting now. I must contemplate.

2.01

linki: you show me your peek and I'll show you mine

Here.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
G-Man wrote:Back again between the wedding and reception. I was told that I could not say the name I was given for Scotty directly. Lucky for me, I snuck it into one of my posts in a manner of speaking. Looks for my post with the in it. I had hoped to draw a reaction out of Scotty with it but I understand why he didn't, knowing now that my peek was wrong.

Gotta jet. Reception in 20 minutes!
Could someone else please find the post G-Man is referring to? I need to finish these analyses.

I'm looking, but I can't find it.

I was waiting for my supertowning reputation in this game to crumble once you got to me.

I also town read Elohcin consistently. Call it a WIFOM, but town-reading both my teammates if I was bad in the way I did seems self-destructive.

I'm bad, but not alignment wise. I just suck.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Nailing Scotty here as we did after a night phase with no kill should buy us another mislynch if the need arises. We're at 7 non-mafia versus 1 mafia now in all likelihood. After the night it'll either still be 7:1 or down to 6:1. Both allow for two mislynches before a LyLo phase. We also can now confirm that G-Man and Wilgy cannot both be bad no matter what, so at least one of them has been honest in his roleclaim (potentially both).

If I'm right and we have three opportunities to catch the final baddie, I think it'd be prudent for us to offer our top three suspects or more if you like. I think these are the baddie candidates, starting with the most likely:

S~V~S
rabbit8
Spacedaisy

The most viable alternative to those three is G-Man himself, who I feel only makes any sense as a baddie if Scotty is his team mate (a scenario that is now half-constructed). I don't think he's our guy, but I'll acknowledge that he's at least a logically valid option.

I don't think Epignosis kills Polo instead of G-Man or someone else more threatening. If Quin is bad we're probably going to lose because I see no good reason to lynch him.

I wish so badly that I was bad, because if I was then this would be my proudest and best mafia game in my mafia history ever. But alas, I am civ. And I suck.

I could vote Spacedaisy tomorrow. She claimed indy as a way of discrediting G-Man's peek of Scotty. To be frank, I don't think there are indies in the game at all.

I don't think SVS is bad.
And I've had enough of the rabbit memes.

G-Man wrote:Brilliant choice to not lynch me! That in no way resembles the information I got from my Scotty peek though. I'll check with the host to see if I can reveal what I learned now that we know who Scotty really was. I glad I was right about him back on Day 1. Too bad my peek on him caused me to reconsider.

So what's the working theory now? Who should Wilgy jail and who should I check? If either of us guess right, it ends tomorrow. I'll pop in before the wedding to PM my peek choice.

4.01.N

If you are the cop, I would surmise that you are likely not sane, given that all three power roles have been reported.

I am not good at mafia.

Hi. I left my vote on a multiple of 4 and nothing bad appears to have happened.

Well, we did get a night poll.

I'm gonna need this to be dumbed down even beyond what a toddler could understand. Think like, a fetus.

These memes are too much for us, doc.

Hi, I'm confused.

But this means G-Man's bad, no?

Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:I'm going to recycle my cases on rabbit sometime today because I am thoroughly peeved that it's not gaining any traction. I think he is much more likely to be bad than SVS.
How much traction do you need? I'm here. I haven't voted. I'll wait until the last minute.

All the traction. Unless it's an entirely unanimous vote it's not enough.

I'm going to recycle my cases on rabbit sometime today because I am thoroughly peeved that it's not gaining any traction. I think he is much more likely to be bad than SVS.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Something comes to mind:

G-Man said he was "blocked" before Wilgy claimed to be a jailer. If G-Man is bad and his night kill was prevented, then this means he took a pointless risk by predicting the cause of his kill failing. He wouldn't know whether he was blocked or jailed, or whether his kill target was protected or jailed (or any other possibilities). If he's bad, he doesn't know what happened and he has to allow the game to sort that out for him. Instead, he immediately claimed he was specifically "blocked", which is a true reflection of what would happen if he was "jailed" as a cop.

I doubt G-Man is bad. I doubt Wilgy is bad. This is a miscommunication. I'll wait for Wilgy's update on his role, but I really don't think another option is terribly likely. Even apart from all the confusion, I think both of them appear quite town at face value.

Would a baddie be less privy to why his role didn't work than a civ? I'd only imagine that if he is civ and was told he was blocked, he would have also been told if he was bad and was blocked.

Epignosis wrote:I looked up jailer. It isn't "role blocker," and in every instance I've seen something like a "jailer" around here, it meant silence and prevent from voting, or some such thing. I have never seen block and protect (which makes sense for its name) here. I am skeptical of this claim.

All the games I've played where jailers have appeared have been a blocking+protecting combo.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:If Wilgy's role is closer to a roleblockers role in that it doesn't protect him, then I don't see how nobody died last night.
I don't think a role is called "jailer" if it fits this description. Either Wilgy is misunderstanding his role card, or Rico withheld a detail intentionally. Everything falls perfectly into place if it's a standard jailer.

Let's hold back on lynching G-Man until we have more information. Vote rabbit with me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:There's not enough room for all these roles.
There is though.
Eloh as a redirecting mafia
G-Man as the cop
Wilgy as the action-only jailer
And a doctor

Am I counting this wrong?
Nobody claimed doctor. The other three can account for everything.

I don't believe that the mafia abstained from killing last night. If Wilgy's role is closer to a roleblockers role in that it doesn't protect him, then I don't see how nobody died last night.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:There's not enough room for all these roles.
There is though.

Eloh as a redirecting mafia
G-Man as the cop
Wilgy as the action-only jailer
And a doctor

Am I counting this wrong?

I'd vote G-Man today, but I'm also open to leaving my vote as it is as an alternative lynch. People don't seem to be interested in my case against rabbit. Why is this?

There's not enough room for all these roles. Cutting out G-Man as the cop makes sense to me and allows for everything to fit. I don't think Scotty is indie and I believe everything Wilgy has said so far, he's bread crumbed his actions throughout the thread.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:HOST:

Do you interpret "power role" to mean "non-vanilla role" or "better than vanilla role"?

Sloonei would punch you in the face for this statement.

Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Took a piss and thought of this:

Lynch G-Man. If he's a cop, it proves there is a blocker, and the blocker is mafia. If he's mafia, great, and it is serious evidence the blocker is a civilian.
Great theory, until, you know, we lynch the cop.
The cop who should be dead by now?

\_(:T)_/

Epignosis wrote:Took a piss and thought of this:

Lynch G-Man. If he's a cop, it proves there is a blocker, and the blocker is mafia. If he's mafia, great, and it is serious evidence the blocker is a civilian.

Great theory, until, you know, we lynch the cop.

Whatever, mine was the highest in The Office. Until Ryan started the fire.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:I'm thinking that I want my post count to end on either 4 9 or 13 this phase.
Those are really small numbers, meh

Or multiples of those numbers, of course.

I want to rebel.

I'm thinking that I want my post count to end on either 4 9 or 13 this phase.

Epignosis wrote:My my.

You you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wait a minute: Scotty can be an independent with a roleblock as his power or among his powers. That could reconcile two of them.
Elohcin
Scotty
G-Man

Abstinent night kill

Is this your final answer, JumboJollyJim?
Ehhh. This all seems like such a bizarre gambit if that's the case.

I've considered the effectiveness of withholding a night kill but I don't see it actually being done, especially right after a mafia was lynched. I personally think they'd try to kill the cop. But in turn, that means that the killer was either roleblocked or the target was protected. Either way, that's a fourth role. Ricochet's hosted heists before so I'm sure he knows to limit the amount of power roles appropriately.

My opinion is that G-Man isn't the cop, with therefore frees up Scotty from being indie. His avid disagreement with the claim makes me think he's being honest. It also means there's no roleblocker, and room for either a roleblocker or a doctor. He was right about Elohcin, which means he's either a really lucky imposter or it was, in fact, a bus.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wait a minute: Scotty can be an independent with a roleblock as his power or among his powers. That could reconcile two of them.

Elohcin
Scotty
G-Man

Abstinent night kill

Is this your final answer, JumboJollyJim?

Clearly Elohcin's role is our only constant.

If we believe G-Man to be the cop, then Scotty as an indie makes three abilities already.

Scotty may have had a bulletproof vest. I've played with indies with vests before, so I think he just needs to survive to win if this is the case.

This leaves no room for a jailer or roleblocker

---

If we exclude G-Man from being the cop, we don't need to include Scotty as an indie (something he's been fighting pretty hard), and there is room for a doctor or something. In this case we still have one unrevealed role.

When Rico answers I'll be more concrete about what I think is the truth.

7

Oshit. I just realised I wasn't keeping check of my post count for the last phase or two.

No, a jailer. A JAILER! HUZZAH!

1. Cop (sanity unknown)
2. Mafia re director
3. Indie (role unknown)
4. Night kill stopper (doctor, roleblocker, etc)
5. A second roleblocker, or one roleblocker that can block twice in one night.

Ricochet. This game does fit within the heist guidelines, right? :P

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:My conclusion: Scotty isn't indie, and G-Man is insane/paranoid/whatever.
We may define those terms differently, but:

G-Man can't be a paranoid cop, because his INH result wasn't red.

G-Man can't be an insane cop because he was correct about Elohcin.

I haven't played with them in a long time so I don't know which it is. I'm saying that I think his peeks are random.

Well you know where my vote is going.

---

I have a dilemma.

There is a paranoid mafia with a redirect ability, we know this.
There is a cop, we can surmise this.
We have a indie that would assumedly have some ability. We can surmise this.
We also have an ability that can stop a night kill.

Four abilities in a setup for three.

My conclusion: Scotty isn't indie, and G-Man is insane/paranoid/whatever.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:In case I die in the next minute: don't actually lynch G-Man. That would be super dumb.

Thank god. I was thinking 'maybe we aren't so alike after all'

linki: noice

G-Man wrote:Blasted ISO's didn't provide much clarity.

DrWilgy

Overall, I like his effort this game. The only reason I feel a slight ping his way is that he filled sig's shoes as the "He's not the cop!" guy. Maybe that was the plan to fill that void if they were wrong about sig when they killed him?

rabbit

He started out early suspicious of SVS and stayed what I consider to be tunnel-visioned on her for quite some time. He broadened his suspicions to include Quin but that didn't seem to last very long. Could it be a one-trick pony bus move that didn't pan out for him?

He said he was on the fence during the Epi-JJJ spat. A nice position to plant yourself in. Uncertain middleground sets you up for an uncertain vote but he didn't vote for JJJ when he had the chance. He voted for INH, which could look like an attempt to vote smart by voting away from uncertainty.

He didn't post for a very long time beginning early during Night 2 (Saturday) and his next post on the site wasn't until Monday (partway into Day 3). Very easily could have been reading without being logged in but it matches the gap theory timeline leading up to Polo's confusing death.

Spacedaisy

Day 1 she deflected a little by saying she wanted to know more about people's opinions of others rather than people's opinions of her. She aslo threw a light civ read at Eloh. In retrospect, it seems odd. At that time, I thought Eloh was playing a game that was too agreeable too early. I was right.

Also she got wordy when defending herself. Rather than drop a sentence, she seems to keep going. I don't know her meta well, but this is what's in my notes.

Beyond that, I have no notes on her.

SVS

She employed a clever trick that I emphasized in BSG- pointing out someone who appears (even slightly) to be basing their vote on someone else's thoughts in order to blame them when it puts them on a mislynch train. She also accuses me of coasting on an auto-suspicion. Which is it? Sure, the combination isn't ideal but we both told each other multiple times in BSG BTSC that we'd never trust each other again after working together the way we did.

That was early and she didn't feel like the same SVS who pushed and prodded me in Spirited Away. When I threw some shade her way she responded in a manner more congenial than normal. She likes to defend hard unless she's toying with someone. Rather than punching back, her words were more of a cock-the-head-raise-the-eyebrow-and-crack-a-subtle-smirk variety.

She was also absent from the thread during all of Night 2, which lines up with the surprising Polo kill. She's got real life issues with internet connectivity but sometimes that happens. She couldn't avoid leaving her teammates high and dry that night. I also maintain that she would have told them to watch out for Polo. Not necessarily kill him but to watch out for him. That, coupled with the fact that nobody suspected him really, could explain why he died when he did.

On Day 3, she finally starts jabbing at me by calling my peeks into question. Where was this at the beginning of Day 3? Curious.

I'm almost certain she is one of Eloh's teammates.

Leaves me with three combos:

ELOHCIN-DrWilgy-SVS
ELOHCIN-rabbit-SVS
ELOHCIN-SD-SVS

3.03.N

It's the second one.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory: Scotty is the "mafia" team mate of Elohcin, and he registered as "independent" because he was the one that might betray her.
I don't think there was anyone that might betray her. Her role says 'paranoid' after all.
Could be. Seems like a bastard move by Rico though if she feels like she might to kill one of her team mates and there is no real threat.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory: Scotty is the "mafia" team mate of Elohcin, and he registered as "independent" because he was the one that might betray her.

I don't think there was anyone that might betray her. Her role says 'paranoid' after all.

I don't see a situation where Eloh and G-Man are on the same team. Eloh's response to the infodump was very shocked and upset. It's not the sort of response you get when you premeditate a bus in BTSC.

Spacedaisy wrote:Perhaps I am just understanding it differently.

I'm interpreting it the same way as you, but I believe my interpretation is wrong. I'm probably wrong. I'm usually wrong.

With that confirmed, I request we lynch rabbit tomorrow.

Posting from uni. Hi. Bye.

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