The Syndicate

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Any endgame scenario is up to the host Rico. You did what you thought was best, and it's not like you could have asked us what we thought beforehand.

I think the best rule of thumb is that civilians must be able to control a lynch to continue playing. 50% of the votes does not meet that requirement, so 1 vs. 1 without extra votes or a lynch protection would always be a civilian loss.
I'd argue that the condition should be one where there no longer exists a (feasible) scenario for a civilian win, so if it's 1v1 with ties determined by the coin toss, so be it.
The problem with this is that the SK is already a loner from the getgo. To resort to a coin flip when he manages to reduce the civilians down to 1 would be too unfair to such a role.

Yeah, I get that. Maybe with a SK thrown into the mix it shouldn't be that way. I tend to think of townies as the 'underdogs' and so I'd design things around them, if you know what I mean?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Quin wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Aye, good game Jay. You did well.

Linki: I bet Rico won't actually tell us.
This might come as a shock, but uh, LoRab and I knew you were civ since Day 2. But we still had our tin foils on that you were the SK because LoRab's insanification was an outlier
I'm confused, why did LoRab's insanification give you pause?

There were two reasons, actually. When LoRab checked you (I said Day 2, but I think that's wrong), she got insanified. On that day 3 people were insane, and we were under the assumption that there were only two insanifiers (the sadness one was civ, because we could decipher it, and the coded one was scum, because we couldn't) - so the third was an outlier. Also, the SK started killing at the same time - we also assumed that we were the reason that Alfothad started killing, because both roles inferred that 'something' would happen if we checked the SK.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Any endgame scenario is up to the host Rico. You did what you thought was best, and it's not like you could have asked us what we thought beforehand.

I think the best rule of thumb is that civilians must be able to control a lynch to continue playing. 50% of the votes does not meet that requirement, so 1 vs. 1 without extra votes or a lynch protection would always be a civilian loss.

I'd argue that the condition should be one where there no longer exists a (feasible) scenario for a civilian win, so if it's 1v1 with ties determined by the coin toss, so be it.

This is a worthy game to be nominated in the Socky's. Rico, you did a fantastic job.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I thought Golden was very likely to be rezzed at some point.

I tried to. Rico told me specifically that I couldn't rezz anyone who was killed by Sleep because they were dead 'for good'.

I almost brought back Epi's BTSC partner, but I forgot to until after the deadline. I feel kind of responsible because we could very well have ultimately won if I did

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Aye, good game Jay. You did well.

Linki: I bet Rico won't actually tell us.

This might come as a shock, but uh, LoRab and I knew you were civ since Day 2. But we still had our tin foils on that you were the SK because LoRab's insanification was an outlier

Epignosis wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Does that mean I was lynched or I win?
Who cares? You killed me you ass.

We were surprised in the chat that this happened, actually.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Does that mean I was lynched or I win?

This is a good question.

Shit, this was so exciting. Congrats, Jay. You deserve this win for sure.

-intensity intensifies-

happy halloween

Mafia Dawn Thoughts:

Epi
LoRab

Wilgy
Dom
3J
MM
sig

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Thanks quin, I'll stop doing that.

I'm the one doing that. I can't commit to any of my own conclusions.

my response to this game rn

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:Trice tried to lynch his SK partner so he could take his chances winning with the civilians as opposed to winning as an indie. Aside from the fact that he's denying himself one of two possible win conditions, is there a feasible reason why he would not have done this?
I think that still equates to trice willfully making his own life harder in this game. That's not a move made by a player who wants to maximize his chance of getting a winner's banner.

Unfortunately any answer I provide to these assertions is clouded by the source (me) in the eyes of any reader, but I think y'all need to step back and re-assess Night 3 and Day 4. Trice was not under that much pressure and the play being assigned to him here is a panic. The circumstances don't match the action.

If you're not the serial killer, who is?

Trice tried to lynch his SK partner so he could take his chances winning with the civilians as opposed to winning as an indie. Aside from the fact that he's denying himself one of two possible win conditions, is there a feasible reason why he would not have done this?

When was the last time anybody was silenced? We've all checked in today, right? There could only be one baddie left, since Sleep can't kill and silence at the same time.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Quin wrote:Not off the top of my head. I'll have a more thorough look at it tomorrow when we know where we're standing with living players and night kills.
I'm finding it more difficult to come up with these than I anticipated. The only combination that I think looks unlikely at face value is Epignosis/Marmot, because I do think Epi has made a real effort to lynch him. I could narrow it down further by eliminating town reads, but there aren't many of those frankly and it would still leave me with way too many analyses. Meh.
What if there is only one mafia left?

What if there are three?

DrWilgy wrote:Yo, sorry. I thought I had another day

Would've voted Sig from what I read.

Can I haz GTH'S for christmas, doc?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It might be worth doing more analyses like that one. It proved very effective for me late in Mad Max when I was trying to isolate the last two mafia members by team-oriented process of elimination. There are probably too many possible combinations in this array of players for that to be practical, but I might be able to narrow down some of the more likely possibilities.

From there I pose a general question to whoever:

Can you name two players who you believe are definitely not baddie teammates? Name as many combinations as come to mind.

Not off the top of my head. I'll have a more thorough look at it tomorrow when we know where we're standing with living players and night kills.

3J, does that analysis lead you to think they could be a mafia/mafia team, or could they just share BTSC?

I submitted too early. A role based around those lines could explain his lynch protection and removal from the poll today.

In a world where 3J isn't the serial killer, he could be providence. This is what comes up in a google search:

the protective care of God or of nature as a spiritual power.
"they found their trust in divine providence to be a source of comfort"
synonyms: fate, destiny, nemesis, kismet, God's will, divine intervention, predestination, predetermination; More

G-Man wrote:
Quin wrote:
G-Man wrote:Done after this one:

SLOONEI/QUIN
Day 1- 13th overall, 5th on INH. "Let's put this thing further ahead if not to bed." Verdict- strategically risky
Day 2- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 3- 1st overall, 1st and only on LoRab. "Making up for missing one by voting early." Verdict- convenient
Day 4- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 5- 5th overall, 1st and only for Scotty. "Different player, different kind of vote." Verdict- unclear
Day 6- 6th overall, 4th for Jimmy. "When in Rome." Verdict- advantageous
OVERALL: Missing votes and a change in players makes this tough. Looks like it could have the makings of a baddie but more info is needed.
Can you elaborate on your day 6 conclusion? Because this feels like a misrepresentation of my thought process.
"Do the 'vote Jimmy shuffle' because Trice said he's the SK."

So the ultimate target of my vote was the only thing you actually read into? My vote flipped more than once that day.

G-Man wrote:Done after this one:

SLOONEI/QUIN
Day 1- 13th overall, 5th on INH. "Let's put this thing further ahead if not to bed." Verdict- strategically risky
Day 2- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 3- 1st overall, 1st and only on LoRab. "Making up for missing one by voting early." Verdict- convenient
Day 4- Missed the vote. Verdict- frustrating
Day 5- 5th overall, 1st and only for Scotty. "Different player, different kind of vote." Verdict- unclear
Day 6- 6th overall, 4th for Jimmy. "When in Rome." Verdict- advantageous
OVERALL: Missing votes and a change in players makes this tough. Looks like it could have the makings of a baddie but more info is needed.

Can you elaborate on your day 6 conclusion? Because this feels like a misrepresentation of my thought process.

G-Man wrote:
Quin wrote:I don't like G-Man questioning where he stood when he subbed in in terms of MP's reputation. Civ-minded folk don't care about that.
Does that make you suspect me more as mafia or a serial killer? Or does it just give you general baddie vibes? Did you determine that MP had potential SK vibes before or after my arrival? You reference his "POE stunt." Do you recall what day he did that on? If so, I can go back and take a look at it.

I realize it was an odd question ask (what people felt about the player I subbed in for) but I was curious to know if I had room to breathe at first or if I would have to launch into razzle-dazzle-don't-lynch-me mode right out of the gate. Mental preparation, you know?

LoRab wrote:(nor am I sure that I buy that he didn't know for whom he was subbing in, while he was reading back a few pages, and considering if he was going to sub in).
It's true. The Day 5 lynch post dropped at 11:43 pm. I discovered I subbed in for MP but hadn't gotten my role card yet. I PM'd our host for the down-low and went to bed. He sent me the role card a few minutes later but I was already in bed.

And now for those vote reads...

I think your entrance is compatible with either, since the only significant difference between the two factions are the numbers. I think I came across his PoE strategy during my read of BWT, and I'm pretty sure that was after your entrance (I remember because I referred to you in one of the posts I commented on). I haven't read MP's posts in ISO (I'm playing three games on top of IRL - it's a bad excuse, sue me), but I know that PoE monopolised the early discussion on Day 0 and maybe even Day 1.

Mental preparation is the excuse I was expecting. I don't feel anything for it, because I can understand the confusion of subbing into an active game like this, having done it myself, but I also don't see a civ-minded motivation for asking about your position in the game. I'd feel better if you'd just gotten right into it.

Dom wrote:
Quin wrote:
Dom wrote:Quin, why do you think Trice thought JJJ as the SK?
Can you rephrase this?
Why do you think Trice thought JJJ ist he SK?

Maybe because 3J is the SK. I'm not ruling out 3J as the SK in favour of someone else, I just think that MP's use of PoE in this situation is compatible with a SK mindset. It's worth entertaining all options.

Quin wrote:
Dom wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dom wrote:No. You are very much misrepresenting that situation.
I criticized MM for voting Boomslang instead of timmer in that instance. I called his logic backwards and that if he thinks timmer is bad because of his return, then he should vote for timmer-- not for his suspected teammate.

But that's a detail you failed to mention here.
You didn't understand his suspicion of timmer. You said that:

Dom wrote:I still don't really understand why you suspect Timmer tbh
I agree that Marmot's initial vote for Boomslang was logically backwards given his stated timing beef. Independent of that Boomslang vote though was his suspicion of timmer -- that's what I'm talking about here. What made Marmot's suspicion of timmer hard to understand, and how does that compare with your current suspicion of sig?

Dom wrote:one where I didn't mention I suspected him less than two hours before.
Two hours is a long time. You voiced suspicion of him well earlier than that too. Why did it matter today?
TBH it's that I skimmed the thread at that point and just wanted a summary. Too many posts. So I asked for one. I have since determined that I think MM is civ and I no longer care about his reasons for his old Timmer suspicion.
Comments on it not making sense are attributed to the backwards nature of the suspicion. If you continue reading (this is the third time I have told you to actually go back and find the facts on this rather than presenting half of them), you'll see that I even apologize to him for not realizing he had corrected himself.
Any reason why you leave out key details here?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dom wrote:I also do not like how this discussion has been made about sig.

I posted earlier that WilgyTeeth was my biggest suspect. I don't see why the focus on him has waned.
My current discussion is not about sig, it is about you. The current flow of the dialogue does not change the tally, sig has no votes. What is your concern with this?
My concern is my attention is away from Wilgy-- my biggest suspect other than you.

Wilgy-- where are you in your catch up/what are you doing to catch up? What can I do to help you understand the accusations levied against you? I want you to have a shot at defending yourself, but I also think you are very likely a baddie
This reeks. Wilgy can't defend himself. He's a replacement.
Wilgy has said he will catch up and post his thoughts. I understand he might not read detailed, but I'm awaiting those thoughts before I vote for him. Perhaps that will convince me to not vote for him.

You said 'defend'. I don't think that defending oneself and being engaged in the thread are synonymous. Although, I guess they both lead to the intended outcome where one is cleared of suspicion.

Dom wrote:Quin, why do you think Trice thought JJJ as the SK?

Can you rephrase this?

Dom wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dom wrote:No. You are very much misrepresenting that situation.
I criticized MM for voting Boomslang instead of timmer in that instance. I called his logic backwards and that if he thinks timmer is bad because of his return, then he should vote for timmer-- not for his suspected teammate.

But that's a detail you failed to mention here.
You didn't understand his suspicion of timmer. You said that:

Dom wrote:I still don't really understand why you suspect Timmer tbh
I agree that Marmot's initial vote for Boomslang was logically backwards given his stated timing beef. Independent of that Boomslang vote though was his suspicion of timmer -- that's what I'm talking about here. What made Marmot's suspicion of timmer hard to understand, and how does that compare with your current suspicion of sig?

Dom wrote:one where I didn't mention I suspected him less than two hours before.
Two hours is a long time. You voiced suspicion of him well earlier than that too. Why did it matter today?
TBH it's that I skimmed the thread at that point and just wanted a summary. Too many posts. So I asked for one. I have since determined that I think MM is civ and I no longer care about his reasons for his old Timmer suspicion.
Comments on it not making sense are attributed to the backwards nature of the suspicion. If you continue reading (this is the third time I have told you to actually go back and find the facts on this rather than presenting half of them), you'll see that I even apologize to him for not realizing he had corrected himself.
Any reason why you leave out key details here?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dom wrote:I also do not like how this discussion has been made about sig.

I posted earlier that WilgyTeeth was my biggest suspect. I don't see why the focus on him has waned.
My current discussion is not about sig, it is about you. The current flow of the dialogue does not change the tally, sig has no votes. What is your concern with this?
My concern is my attention is away from Wilgy-- my biggest suspect other than you.

Wilgy-- where are you in your catch up/what are you doing to catch up? What can I do to help you understand the accusations levied against you? I want you to have a shot at defending yourself, but I also think you are very likely a baddie

This reeks. Wilgy can't defend himself. He's a replacement.

Put a vote on G-Man. I dislike his entrance and I think that MP had SK potential, based on his PoE stunt.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Quin wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm afraid I don't follow the second post there.
I think he's just referencing he's been insanified days 4, 5 and 7.
GX

ok

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm afraid I don't follow the second post there.

I think he's just referencing he's been insanified days 4, 5 and 7.

god damn it

This insanifier is a real grinch.

Look at who isn't on the lynch poll.

Ricochet wrote:

Gonna throw us a 1 minute picture? No?

I don't like G-Man questioning where he stood when he subbed in in terms of MP's reputation. Civ-minded folk don't care about that.

I changed back to 3J.

Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I don't understand the certainty surrounding birdwithteeth.

If you lynch birdwithteeth, and he's good, you done fucked up real good.
What do you think about BWT?
No clear opinion except that people like lynching him for some reason. One thing I believe that is a point in his favor is that he is posting as he catches up. That's hard to do if you are bad. Look at the machine gun nature of his posts when he was around.

A more specific question then - do you approve of a BWT lynch?

Epignosis wrote:I don't understand the certainty surrounding birdwithteeth.

If you lynch birdwithteeth, and he's good, you done fucked up real good.

What do you think about BWT?

Actually, I agree with Scotty. I'd rather lynch a mafia then a SK. And even if that SK is 3J, he's going to be scum-hunting and he'll bring activity into the thread. He's more of an asset to us alive than dead.

Scotty wrote:I'm currently on a ferry somewhere between Vancouver and a port in Washington, i don't have service and have been using this shitty wifi which takes 10 minutes to load a page.

I'm caught up-
I will be voting BWT or JJJ today but would rather lynch a mafia than the SK right now if I had a choice. The convenes is JJJ being the SK, which I'm actually confused as to why timer would call it a "slam dunk". I know it has been explained but I'm a little slow and still don't get it. Because I'm basically Casper this game I don't feel like losing a potential civ voice yet is our best option. If JJJ is civ, then lynching him eouornsuck, and the capable addition of Quin, who I firmly think is doing a great civ look, will most likely get killed in the night (he would if I were bad). So I'd rather vote out a mafia member.

I think that's BWT

Raise my death flag, why don't you

I don't see an advantage for trice to explicitly paint someone as the SK if they're not, so I voted 3J. Hopefully this thread doesn't completely die without him.

Epignosis wrote:
G-Man wrote:Doing the sheeple thing and voting Jimmy. Epi's case is intriguing but speculative. Sometimes you have to go with speculative in order to break a game your way. Jimmy's votes don't look good or bad, which gives me pause, but I also haven't had enough proper time to dig through them all to look for tinfoil patterns. I can see them as the intentional work of a baddie or the unintentional work of a civvie but not the intentional work of a civvie.
I know you just got here, but this post reeks of trying too hard to say very little.

First, I don't really have a "case" against 3J. Somebody who knows who the serial killer is called 3J the serial killer. That's about all there is to that.

Second, if 3J is the serial killer, how is looking at his votes is a useful way to spend your time? If you've read my "case," then your comment about 3J's votes doesn't make sense.

Third, that last sentence...

Can you dig up the post/s where he does that?

Tied it back up. If there's a reason beyond trice's post that make him look bad then tell me, but I don't think that's enough to warrant a vote.

It's like I said before, I don't think trice is likely to actively seek out to lynch his serial killer and deny himself a fallback win condition.

I understood almost none of that post, but good on you 3J.

I don't want to lynch 3J. I appreciate that he's a fitting SK given trice's actions, but off the top of my head he's not a fitting baddie. Throw me a case if you disagree.

I think MP is fitting for either, and I'd rather vote for players with compatibilities for both as a priority.

On the Scotty's not having caught up thing, I just looked back and he doesn't post at all between those two BWT posts.

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