The Syndicate

Akemi Homura

Donna Meagle wrote:bea - bad
boomslang - good
cheerleader - indi/whocares/good? idk what's going on
donna - supatown
golden - good
john coltrane - good
juliets - good
made - good
mm89 - good
prisoner - good
llama - good
scotty - good
soneji - good (tbh bc i missed the case on him and am very tired)
svs - good

This is just a reminder that Donna only came up with one GTH bad read in our group.

Akemi Homura

I also assumed that the cheerleader's vote counted toward getting Soneji lynched, and it appears Boomslang did as well. I don't find it suspicious for Metalmarsh to suggest that it did.

Akemi Homura

thellama73 wrote:Does it matter whether the Cheerleader's vote counted?

Not really, no. But if we want to avoid the risk of it influencing lynches later on, we should try to avoid such tight polls.

Akemi Homura

I want people to do what they must to figure out the game as long as no rules are being broken. No idea what this conversation is about though.

Akemi Homura

Golden wrote:RIP epi.

I actually liked Made asking people who they thought would be lynched in the other thread, and thought this had an awful lot of GTH potential, and it was another thing I wished I could have said. Talking about that towards the end of the day might have helped distinguishing between people who acted awkwardly because they had inside knowledge from their teammates, and people who had no idea. I never voted Made because I thought that this whole mindset seemed town to me.

I was also playing gth by moving my vote around. I wanted to be clear who I would be willing to vote.

One thing to note is that if Bea is civilian as well then there was no need at all for a baddie to flip like that.

Akemi Homura

and cheerleader's vote seems to have counted.

Akemi Homura

It seems we are still here. I suspect/hope we'll return to the main thread at the start of Day 3.

Akemi Homura

Made wrote:They wouldn't want to miss out on what was discussed here id assume?

Yeah, a split team probably makes the most sense. It is fun to imagine them trying the full-team gambit though. That'd be hilarious.

Akemi Homura

I feel like there'd be too much risk in piling the entire team into one thread. Once a few pieces start to fall in that scenario, it becomes obvious what the strategy was. I'm more inclined to think they split themselves up semi-evenly. It is worth noting that we are the larger group (we also would have had Epi).

Akemi Homura

While we're here, how might the baddies have wanted to split themselves up today (again, assuming they knew what the poll was for)? If they all pile into one thread they can ensure that none of them get lynched, while a bunch of townies in the other group are left to scramble and fight over a doomed lynch.
whoa, I hope that didn't happen.

Akemi Homura

I take it this means Donna thinks the baddies decided to all hang out in the Hatch today.

Akemi Homura

Donna goes 1 baddie to 13 townies. Interesting.

Akemi Homura

That's assuming no vote manipulation, which I shouldn't do.

Akemi Homura

Well now if Soneji comes in and puts his vote where he ought to, we've got a tie, and ties (if I remember correctly) are resolved randomly. Are we cool with putting things in the hands of a coin?

Akemi Homura

Made wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:I think we've done a good job generating content today and I am satisfied with the conclusions we've come to, at least as we're approaching the deadline right now. I'm still here in case anything is said that might influence me off of Bea or onto Soneji, but I'm also comfortable with my vote where it is and don't object to the Soneji votes in any major way. Let's keep up this activity when we get back to a complete game, beach goers.

One question that just popped in my head now: Do we think Golden was silenced by somebody who's in here with us? It seemed most people had clued into what the poll meant, and it might make more sense for the silencer to pick somebody in their own grouping. The only reason I could think for them not to do that would be the WIFOM factor, which we can never rule out.
well, this implies baddies knew that half were going to hatch and half were going to the beach. I know personally, i didn't put that together and figured it'd be like felt were the one that gets the most votes picks were we as a group goes.

It does. There was a bit of discussion about what the poll meant (I had no idea until others mentioned it), so I would guess that there was some level of awareness on the part of the baddies.

Akemi Homura

I think we've done a good job generating content today and I am satisfied with the conclusions we've come to, at least as we're approaching the deadline right now. I'm still here in case anything is said that might influence me off of Bea or onto Soneji, but I'm also comfortable with my vote where it is and don't object to the Soneji votes in any major way. Let's keep up this activity when we get back to a complete game, beach goers.

One question that just popped in my head now: Do we think Golden was silenced by somebody who's in here with us? It seemed most people had clued into what the poll meant, and it might make more sense for the silencer to pick somebody in their own grouping. The only reason I could think for them not to do that would be the WIFOM factor, which we can never rule out.

Akemi Homura

Made wrote:Intuition is telling me we're not going to have access to this thread nor hatch thread come as soon as night. Save everything you can for personal use/later reads.
Baddies, tell your teammates to tell the other thread pls/thx

I do not think we're allowed to save things.

Akemi Homura

Voting for Bea. I'd at least like to see how Made pursues the 6 additional suspects he just named when our threads remerge.

Akemi Homura

Made, you still have not addressed my two biggest questions about you: this post and this post. I can't move my vote until you address these things, unfortunately.

Akemi Homura

Made wrote:Gth for other group per request of juliets
Civvie: DH, LC trimmer wilgy
Baddie: br sig professor Sorsha Floyd and lorab

Svs- I don't think you're silly, I think you're one of the best players on this site. That said, while weird, I'd argue that memory has little to say about allighnment. I hope we agree to disagree at least on that point.

Scotty- I just felt at that moment you could of gotten a few votes, I really don't have a reason other than gut. I thought the thread night 0 was heading that direction

Why is LoRab a baddie read? What is Quin?

Akemi Homura

John Coltrane was already a distant third behind Bea and Made, and I like the tone of that post. It'll take something really big to sway me onto him now.

Akemi Homura

As was the case with Macdougall yesterday, I don't agree with all of the elements of the Soneji case, but that does not mean I read him as town. I won't fight against the idea of lynching him, but at the moment I don't necessarily support it either.
I read Metalmarsh as town. I don't want to lynch him.
Made and Bea remain my top two choices, but I would also be willing to consider John Coltrane if he becomes a popular target.

Akemi Homura

bea wrote:Im pretty up in the air about scotty, but slightly civ is where im leaning.

And yes jc is juliets sorry.

What do you make of Boomslang's post a few minutes ago? He had something to say about you and I'd like to know what you think of that.

Akemi Homura

juliets wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:
bea wrote:To be fair llama, I didnt interact with you yesterday either. Pretty hard to interact with anyone through the 10 pages of chatter i was passed out during.

I dont understand why boom is suspicious outside of not posting much.

I like the priz, i like svs, i like jc. They are reading civ. ??? For everyone else.

Made keeps making me flip flop.

Im not sure i completely get the back and forth between songj and llama.
What do you think of Scotty and juliets?
Prisoner, I am the "jc" she's referring to, juliet's coffee used to be my full screen name and people still call me "jc".

Ah. I assumed JC was John Coltrane.

Akemi Homura

bea wrote:To be fair llama, I didnt interact with you yesterday either. Pretty hard to interact with anyone through the 10 pages of chatter i was passed out during.

I dont understand why boom is suspicious outside of not posting much.

I like the priz, i like svs, i like jc. They are reading civ. ??? For everyone else.

Made keeps making me flip flop.

Im not sure i completely get the back and forth between songj and llama.

What do you think of Scotty and juliets?

Akemi Homura

Reiterating this post from earlier @Made:

Prisoner 27385 wrote:voting for Made
Made wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:The working theory in these GTH exercises is that baddies tend to name more good/civ reads, perhaps because they are nervous about calling out players who they know are town. This makes me look at Made more questioningly.
I feel like there is a flaw in this logic. As a counter question, if there's four baddies in this group, and everyone feels like the other group is badder, then how many baddies are in that group, and how many baddies are there over all?
What is the flaw in this logic?

I'd also like to add on to it. Made, your response to my point about you naming the fewest baddies in our GTH exercise is that you believe the Hatch holds more baddies than the Beach. With a gun to your head, who are the Hatch baddies?

Akemi Homura

juliets wrote:Prisoner, could you refresh my memory about what you said about Coltrane's vote on Mac in the other thread?

It came at the very end of the day when Mac was a sure thing to be lynched. This is not a mark for or against John Coltrane. The vote also came in a long post explaining his thought process and what lead him to the vote for Macdougall. I forget what exactly what it said, but nothing of what he said seemed unreasonable to me at the time. But it was nothing that couldn't be fabricated by a baddie player, and as his vote was just a tacked on contribution at the end of the day (not his fault, just timing), it is hard to say that his vote is definitively good. Likewise, he didn't post enough overall on Day 1 to make any such determination.

Akemi Homura

thellama73 wrote:Is it possible Boom is faking being silenced? But then why would he do that?

It's always possible. Boomslang would only make sense if either there is a town silencing role (which picked a quiet player so as to not silence a potentially strong voice on Day 2) or if some sort of indirect/passive or misdirected silencing ability is in play. Or Boomslang simply hasn't said anything. Golden is almost certainly silenced/pretending to be silenced.

Akemi Homura

thellama73 wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:I think there is enough content in this thread alone for everyone to have something to say about something.
We've got a few substantial cases against the likes of Soneji and Made. What do people think of these?
Myself and Scotty have also received a bit of scrutiny.
There's been a good deal of chatter about lynching a low poster (Bea seems to be the preferred choice). What does everyone think of this? We've got plenty of time to work out a good lynch, but that requires us not sitting on our hands.
You know what I think about Soneji. I have yet to be convinced by the case on Made. I guess I'm not seeing what others are seeing. I have a blind spot for Scotty. I always tend to think he's bad based on tone, so I don't especially suspect him here, and as I said in the other thread, I think you would be nuts if you were Mac's teammate (assuming only one baddie team, that clears you, but I don't know if I'm ready to make that assumption).

My GTH read of Bea was thta she could be bad, and I wouldn't object to lynching her. However, I do not think she would lie about being sick to excuse her inactivity.

I am still waiting for Made to get in here and say a few more things before I make a final decision on him. If he changes my mind I'm likely to move to Bea just to give our GTH results some credit.

Akemi Homura

juliets wrote:Just fyi Prisoner, there were 9 votes on Mac. If you look at the top of the vote record in the vote thread you will see that Daisy made a note that the version of the poll she captured was prior to the end of the poll, and that sorsha was the 9th voter for Mac. I don't think that changes your analysis, Made is still in the middle, I just bring it up in case it becomes important to you later on down the road, for example in an analysis of sorsha.

I had not noticed this, as sorsha is not recorded in the Polls thread. Thank you. I'll have a look at Sorsha if/when I'm back in that thread.

Akemi Homura

Made was the 5th vote on Mac out of 8. The 5th vote on what was mostly a runaway wagon against an inactive scum player has bus potential. When I looked at the 8 Mac voters for a potential busser, I slotted Made right in the middle of the pack. That is to say, his vote did not strike me as particularly good or bad. So this essentially worke out to a null read, which neither helps nor hurts my suspicion today.

Akemi Homura

I think there is enough content in this thread alone for everyone to have something to say about something.
We've got a few substantial cases against the likes of Soneji and Made. What do people think of these?
Myself and Scotty have also received a bit of scrutiny.
There's been a good deal of chatter about lynching a low poster (Bea seems to be the preferred choice). What does everyone think of this? We've got plenty of time to work out a good lynch, but that requires us not sitting on our hands.

Akemi Homura

John Coltrane wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:
Scotty wrote:Remind me again what John coltrane has done in this game?
Spent a lot of time justifying a vote at the very end of the Macdougall bandwagon.
Wow. Really? Very nice of you to say

I don't appreciate this assessment of my contributions. Although I haven't posted much, I've done more than this. I certainly did post more info/opinion than that, and more suspicions along with my Mac vote.

Back to my reading, with more to say as I go along.

Forgot to address this earlier. No hard feelings, Mr Coltrane. This was a reaction test. I gave you a much more thorough and favorable look in the main thread.

Akemi Homura

bea wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:On another note, every single one of us who shared GTH reads listed Bea as a baddie read. Like I said earlier, giving the results staggered like we did opens things up to manipulation from bad players coming in late, but still, the results are the results. If we were voting solely based on that exercise, Bea would be a slam dunk lynch. That is not to say I think we should lynch her today (I'm not sure we should at all), but it's something worth discussing. Obviously the most important thing is Bea herself finding the time to play with us today.

I am trying. I can see why people would think so because I was inactive. I was/am sick. I was bound to my bed for days. The low content last cycle was not normal for me regardless of allignment and had everythijg to do with being sick. I ditched the sim saturday and havent been anywhere else i normally am as well.

I certainly don't fault you for your absence and I appreciate your efforts to get involved. Where are you in your catchup attempt right now?

Akemi Homura

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:From what I have observed, it does not appear that any (or at least not many) roles have been directly copied from past games. It seems they are mostly just based on games from the last calendar year, not ripped directly from them.
I take it your role is in the same boat?

I will say that mine is as well. It is based on a past game, but not taken verbatim from a past game.

I was locked away in solitary when all those mofos got to play their little prison games last time.

Akemi Homura

thellama73 wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:Is there more to the Soneji case than his denouncement of meta-analysis? Because I can't vote for him if that's it.
There's a little more to it. I initially noticed Soneji for his avoidance of mentioning Macdougall, even when he was the central topic of discussion. The meta comment combined with that observation to form my suspicion, as I think baddies often forget to talk about one another.

I find this slightly more compelling. I am feeling good about this Made thing right now though, and I'd like to see how it plays out. It feels like my vote will come down between him and Bea.

Akemi Homura

juliets wrote:
S~V~S wrote:I just checked, my role is word for word. Maybe it's a mix, since Macs wasn't even an actual role?

And thanks for the explanation, Scotty. Maybe she can protect whoever has the process role? The player?
My role is also word for word.

"word for word" as in it is an exact copy of a role from a previous game?

Akemi Homura

I did note that the Cheerleader is currently voting for Made along with Soneji and myself. That gave me a moment of pause.

Akemi Homura

Scotty wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:From what I have observed, it does not appear that any (or at least not many) roles have been directly copied from past games. It seems they are mostly just based on games from the last calendar year, not ripped directly from them.
Ok sure.

Then what do you make of Cheerleader?

see the post directly below this one

Akemi Homura

Scotty wrote:Also to reiterate: I still think the most likely candidate for the Process is Prisoner.

He has had no mention at all of the Cheerleader in discussion, and has been actively avoiding talking about t as if it's old news. The only mention comes with the GTH read:
Cheerleader - MYSTERY ELEMENT, GOOD
How nice to call it a good mystery element without talking about it at all prior. My calling him out early on was swept under the rug, and there is no fire for the prisoner to solve that little Pom Pom problem.

That being said, I'm satisfied with his involvement to the game thus far and if it helps catch baddies, then I'm all for leaving him alone for the time being.

See my post directly below this one. I am not as concerned about the Process as you are, yeah. If the Cheerleader is still around tomorrow I'll question it a bit more. Right now it's just a harmless little buzzing noise in the corner.

Akemi Homura

From what I have observed, it does not appear that any (or at least not many) roles have been directly copied from past games. It seems they are mostly just based on games from the last calendar year, not ripped directly from them.

Akemi Homura

Is there more to the Soneji case than his denouncement of meta-analysis? Because I can't vote for him if that's it.

Akemi Homura

On another note, every single one of us who shared GTH reads listed Bea as a baddie read. Like I said earlier, giving the results staggered like we did opens things up to manipulation from bad players coming in late, but still, the results are the results. If we were voting solely based on that exercise, Bea would be a slam dunk lynch. That is not to say I think we should lynch her today (I'm not sure we should at all), but it's something worth discussing. Obviously the most important thing is Bea herself finding the time to play with us today.

Akemi Homura

voting for Made

Made wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:The working theory in these GTH exercises is that baddies tend to name more good/civ reads, perhaps because they are nervous about calling out players who they know are town. This makes me look at Made more questioningly.
I feel like there is a flaw in this logic. As a counter question, if there's four baddies in this group, and everyone feels like the other group is badder, then how many baddies are in that group, and how many baddies are there over all?

What is the flaw in this logic?

Akemi Homura

Made wrote:Something of note: someone has used Hua Tuo's Journal as it returned to the store.

Something about this post seems out of the ordinary as well. It suggests that Made has been focused on what's going on with items and the game setup in general. I have not been. I won't fault a player for being attentive to these details, but I am noting it as curious that Made was so on top of this.

Another little detail that I am mildly pinged by is that Made has gone out of his way to invite questions in a few posts:

Made wrote:Replying as I go. Ask questions/prod me on stuff while i'm here please!

Made wrote:Ok, so I do not know SVS's meta but she's reading really lowkey to me. Like from the games i remember she's been very much at the forefront of baddie hunting and theory making and stuff and things, but day 1 and so far during beach day, she seems to be throwing ideas in thread with relatively isolated back and forth. I didn't look at her day 1 post ISO but she did have the same number of post as me during day 1 (31) which i felt i was personally lacking relative to my typical standard. Given it's probably has been like 2 years since I've played with her, I wanted to point this out.

anyhow still catching up ama. [Ask Me Anything]

Linki- nvm lol... I agree SVS, I'll actually place my vote on bea for now.

Sometimes a baddie will want to overcompensate by appearing to be super open and welcoming, as a way to suggest they are ready to provide lots of content without actually doing it.

Akemi Homura

Made wrote:
Prisoner 27385 wrote:My sources and you simply have not been acquainted yet.
Who are your top suspects, whether they're at the beach or not?
I'm gonna piggy back on this: As a fun thought experiment, who do you think is going to be lynched in Hatch? Not who would you lynch, but who do you think would be?

In case you forgot:
DharmaHelper (1), Black Rock (3), Quin (8), Long Con (13), timmer (14), DrWilgy (16), sig (22), Professor Farnsworth (23), Sorsha (24), TheFloyd73 (26), LoRab (27) 39%

Personally I'd guess Sig but would deffo put LoRab in there as a toss up.

This is probably the most questionable post we have in this thread. Props to SVS for saying something about it earlier. This thought experiment is mostly irrelevant to what is going on in this thread.

Akemi Homura

The working theory in these GTH exercises is that baddies tend to name more good/civ reads, perhaps because they are nervous about calling out players who they know are town. This makes me look at Made more questioningly.

Akemi Homura

juliets wrote:Prisoner, I gave Donna a GTH read of Bad. I don't think thats reflected on your chart unless I'm reading it wrong.

I missed this. That puts Donna at 2/4 bad reads, and gives you 4 baddies named. So everyone named 4 baddies except for Made, who named 2.

Akemi Homura

A version of the GTH chart that doesn't get cut off:

Akemi Homura

GTH results:

Bea was a unanimous baddie. Our other top targets were Boomslang, John Coltrane, and Scotty, suggesting that we're mostly skeptical of the quiet folks, and also Scotty. Soneji and SVS were, surprisingly, unanimous Good reads along with yours truly and Golden.

Made had the fewest total bad reads, followed by Juliets, and the rest of us all had more. This metric is a bit wonky in this particular exercise given that the player list is randomized and there's no way of knowing what our ratio of bad:good is in this grouping. We all seem to agree that there are multiple suspects present, at least.

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