The Syndicate

What have we learned?

Arc had no mercy in mafia.

He would probably ruthlessly buddy me, only to eat me for supper later.
Also, he's avatar is fully coffee tell

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:35 pmIk they don't always play completely logically but like.. altruistic framing? I can't get there.

Like, I don't know what the fuck he was doing. Maybe the post was just for his own amusement, so we would go wild trying to look in his posts for "signalling" when in reality he did none. There's literally no way to know. What he didn't do and honestly wouldn't do is single out the last mafia specifically to go "wink wink wink wink wink oink I'm about to flip mafia 3p IT ME". So in fact, this should spew me town. Not because he was trying to do anything specific, but because he would be careful not to spray mud on the last mafia with his last breath.

Like, if I was the last mafia, I'd have a pretty good reason to be pissed if he did that. That would be bad form. But HK doesn't have bad form. His form is sexy.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:30 pmOkay but like logically, he has no stake in a mafia win after his death. I'm pretty sure that no matter his effort level this game, he understands this when he's about to lose

But emotionally, he probably still wants mafia to win. I'll bet my right ass cheek he's in spec right now cheering the last mafia on. I would probably do the same, though I'm very serious about my wincons.

Your argument is extremely short sighted here. If he was serious about saving himself, he would first of all put up some sort of fight or defence or case or anything. Second of all, in the event that I was mafia which I'm obviously not, and it was important to him that I didn't vote him, he could try to signal to me the first time I voted or at any earlier point. Blah. Doesn't matter. It's just not the case.

Like, you're literally arguing that the only thing he did was going "Haha, btw, I was the mafia 3p wink wink, which you'll see in 13 minutes anyway".

I mean, I get it, shiny, but also no.

But I don't know who mafia is so.

When games feel like this, it does tend to me, I'll give you that lolololol

But alas.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:23 pm I don't understand what makes you believe so strongly that hollowcat was just simplifying his role to "mafia." Normally people play to their win condition and not to other people's win conditions unless it makes no difference to them. Is there any evidence hollowcat doesn't do this by default?

It's something I believe. I don't understand why that's so weird to you tbh.

There is also evidence enough that he didn't care enough about his wincon to defend himself. He was lacklustre all game. I doubt he really cared or tried that hard. Or rather, evidentially not.

It's also not either/or btw. Like, he's not either playing as mafia or as 3p. His role was literally both.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:47 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:44 pm plz be town lag

This is town

Falcon hk lime town. Lime maybe but ok

My drunk reads are really crushing it btw lolol

Lag wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:47 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:44 pm plz be town lag

You're in luck this game

I think it's been a while since we've been the same alignment now, hasn't it?

Scum confirmed

rekt

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:15 pm I have a burgeoning suspicion that the NAA kill was randed

I never have and probably will never rand a NK in my entire mafia career. And I've played some hundred games.

I don't know why you would rand a kill here or ever tbh.

I mean, I'm usually not that big on NK analysis. Because the answer is just unknown. This kill does stand out a lot though. I know I would never make it, regardless of whether people believe this or not.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:14 pmhe's glomgold. he's a selfish **** by decree of rng. so in that situation I can imagine him softing enough that you're mafia to try to force you to unvote regardless of the negative impact on your towncred

No, this doesn't work. First of all, signalling that to me right before EoD wouldn't do shit even if I was mafia.
Second of all, you keep looking at this from an entirely "this is his Winton" technical standpoint.
Too bad for you if you find it suspicious, but I'm pretty damn sure HK has been trying to help mafia this entire game, because that's the kind of person and player he is from my knowledge.

He also didn't try to save himself at all. Like, if he was that concerned with his Winton, why is he basically rolling over at the same time as you now think he could be signalling to me.

I know it's not a thing. But it's also just not a thing.

Mizery wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:12 pm Who do you think does kill NAA then and why

I have talked much about this already. I think it's a really strange kill. Maybe someone who knows NAA less. I don't think it's DDL, cause he was pushing NAA. So was Arc, and I don't really think Arc is mafia here either. Honestly, I don't really think Jack does either, but I'm voting Jack so lol

Mizery wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:10 pm why do you never kill NAA

Because he's not a threat. He's an easy mischop.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:05 pm It's pretty weird that dizzy instead of just looking at my quotes and going "that isn't attempted signaling" is trying to convince me HK was scheming an an altruistic manner to help the mafia.

Makes me feel a bit better about the paranoia I'm feeling

I'm not trying to convince you of that lol. But it's certainly not unthinkable. I don't really care what HK tried or didn't try to do there.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:02 pm @Lag @Jack can you guys tell me I'm crazy if I'm crazy for thinking those quotes are Hollowcat trying to signal to Dizzy in a last-ditch effort to get them to unvote him?

Honestly, yeah it's kind of dumb. Because he was not trying to save himself by any measure. And even if I was mafia, what the fuck would he expect me to do there right before EoD. He was caught in a pretty bad contradiction and there wasn't a competing wagon. I had him in my PoE for a long time and he also ended up being my preferred vote on D2, so in a world where I was mafia, he doesn't wait until right before he's about to die for sure while not defending himself otherwise. I can see why you would notice these posts, but think about it. I don't really think he did any overt signalling anyway.

The simplest way to know I'm not mafia is to know I never kill NAA.
The next simplest way is to just read my posts.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:00 pm It's interesting that you think it's a possibility he was trying to make it look this way

Again he has 0 reason to make it look that way since death=loss. He's not a normal mafia team member who wants to throw town off after they flip. Were you voting him at that time?

Yes. I voted him before anyone else this day. I voted him instead of voting NAA, who was my counter wagon. And I told the game how I thought NAA was town.

And I'm pretty sure HK fully tried to help the mafia.
Just based on the kind of person and player he is.
Like, I'm pretty sure he saw himself as mafia sided and if he was to go down (which he didn't seem very interested in avoiding), he would root for mafia and try to help mafia. And I would guess this was how he was playing the entire game.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:55 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:52 pm

Spoiler: show

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:49 pm

Mizery wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:42 pm

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:41 pm

Mizery wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:30 pm

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:25 pm Btw just something I want to point out, HK has almost 0 reason to anti-spew. It's not like if mafia team can win for him if he dies early.

which is why assuming that the other wolf had to be on Falcon is a bad assumption- he'd want make sure he was voting right as to not die.

He would need wolves to win, but another option is trying to get the wolves to die early, taking their NK, and then playing like an SK? how reliable would that be vs. trying to signal who he is so they can not push him or something? idk. He could have also been playing to try and get nkd so they could find him

I'm not assuming anything about who voted on falcon. Reading Hollow's iso I don't really see much that looks like spew on you though, he basically tr'd everyone. He did agree with lag's fos on you to an extent but never pushed it

I never said you did lol, I was making a general comment

mb,mb

I can't see HK as being aware of lag's alignment here. He casts too much shade on lag and then turns around and puts most of his effort into hashing things out with lag. Why wouldn't he just direct pocket them instead of doing things like this

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:55 pm

Lag wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:54 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:50 pm

Lag wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:37 pm

I like the way Arcbell thinks and have a weakness to it.

But actually his posts do feel towny, I'm not entirely sure why, but I have a gut townread on him.

this phrasing is weird.
I find arc townie b/c of his posts, you seem to be saying you find him townie despite his townie posts?

I find his posts townie, I'm just not entirely sure why I find his posts townie though.

What part was unclear?

the part where it read like your town read of arc is separate from you thinking his posts are townie

where he's accusing lag of reading me for non-alignment reasons

or this

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:27 pm

Lag wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:19 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:17 pm

Lag wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:15 pm

You've not been entirely absent, but like, I could basically copy paste the post I made from last game where I correctly wolf-read you there.

And the same logic applies here. You have no fire

"you have no fire"

Correction. "You have no fire" was Lag to HK. Not the other way around.

I just read that interaction. I don't find it clearing for Lag. However, I think Lag has been really towny. But I'm circling around on everyone right now. I don't really buy that it's Mizery either tbh.

Ah yea thx for the correction.

Would you flesh out the mizery tr? So far no one has been up to the task

I don't know if I can beyond what I've already said.
HK's handling of her. Her words.
Not sure how she struggles to read me, but I'll let her talk about that. I feel she's mostly ignored me this game.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:39 pm Guys read these quotes. Are you seeing what I'm seeing?

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:17 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:19 pm

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:04 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:02 pm Did we lose?

depends are you a wolf?

What do you think and why?

I've noticed you reading me correctly a lot of time. I'm curious.

from checking my notifications:

I think I've gotten pretty good at reading you, or it's TMI not sure which

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:47 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:41 pm

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:37 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 11:31 pm Jack/Porscha doesn't look like it's a thing. Jack voted her 7 min before EoD, I followed. But I do think it's conceivable that Porscha could be run down. There was a lot of chaos during EoD.

They wouldn't know of each other's existence given that Falcon was the team mafia, yeah?

Well, yeah. Unless Jack 3p. Knowing of each other only goes one way. Though the mafia might have a good idea.

do you think the 3p would want to signal here or not? I was thinking about that in my fevered half-sleep this afternoon and couldn't come to a decision

Oh this. I did mention this already. This is literally 13 minutes before he's about to die. He doesn't signal to his partner right before he's about to flip, that's just stupid. He might've had a thought of trying to make it look this way though. Which isn't stupid, but meh.

The comment about being good at reading me is referencing previous games.

Actually, after I voted HK (FIRST btw), I was thinking about whether I was happy with the vote or not. And HK not coming to my defence, even though I was suspected by others, made me even more fine with my HK vote. Cause as town he would be invested in making others see me as town too. Didn't verbalise this though. Also not really relevant now.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:50 pm Dizzy I'm having paranoid thoughts about hollow trying to signal to you in the posts above ^^^

Can you set my mind at ease?

What post above? He didn't. Or maybe he tried to make it look that way, but I don't know what post you're referring to.

Correction. "You have no fire" was Lag to HK. Not the other way around.

I just read that interaction. I don't find it clearing for Lag. However, I think Lag has been really towny. But I'm circling around on everyone right now. I don't really buy that it's Mizery either tbh.

Mizery wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:41 pm its why im at dizzy/lag

Have you tried getting that read on me? It shouldn't be that hard imo.

There's an exact 0 % chance I kill NAA. I'm not going to explain why.

Anyway, I'm currently going back to look at how HK and Falcon talked about Lag actually.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:10 am

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:46 am Fuck, what if it is Lag. That would be cool.

A tinfoil for a much later day tbh. After I'm dead. My grandkids' grandkids may have to worry about the scum!Lag world

May the sweet relief of death come quickly.

Or we just chop the last mafia.

Fuck, what if it is Lag. That would be cool.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 am I still have a hard time believing HK busses Jack one day after bussing falcon.

Maybe

Lag wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:42 am I gtg to work but I'm not voting because I don't want an early hammer changing EoD time again.

My vote is on Mizery in spirit

Jack just being AWOL today is kind of annoying.

Another one not planning to hit mafia today

Vote to resurrect Sean tbh tbh

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:38 amI'm out of my scumrange

Because you broke your scum range? Hm HMMM???

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:36 amYea I saw this and it could sort of be a reason to townread her, but at this point it's just some wording vs. a mountain of towny stuff from other people imo

My wording reads are my best reads. Sometimes. But of course I could be wrong.

I'm voting Jack, because I'm out of options. I really don't know.
HK vote Jack with the reasoning of "Do things" or something like that. HK voting the last mafia without pushing him would be kind of typical. I guess that's my reasoning. It's not great reasoning.

[VOTE: Jack] aubergine

Going back in DDL's iso. I don't think it's him either.

Is it just Arc?

@Arcbell Would you do this to me?

But like, why does the wolf obviously feel comfortable if they are going after Mac in the first place? I don't know. Maybe everything I'm saying is dumb. But I'm still going to say it, because that is how mafia works ig.

Mizery wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:22 pm

Arcbell wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:16 pm

Mizery wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:14 pm Lag/Arc giving the vibes that it's in there for how supportive they've been of eachother and i dislike that read

are you sure this isn't just a solution to the problem of how to omgus 2 people at the same time?

no, lol

but I'm willing to sheep a TR on porscha rn. The wolf obviously feels comfortable if they're going after the 3p. Either that or the wolf is mac and they accidentally hit the 3p, but lol I'm not going down that rabbit hole until i have to which should hopefully be never lol

Mh.
This is the type of read that only I make and only I agree with. Buuut, I kind of think this makes Mizery not mafia. Cause if Mizery is mafia, I don't think she does feel comfortable. And it's rare for mafia to post boastful things when the game is ongoing. It would be kind of like saying "Well, I'm comfortable and not worried that you noobs would get me, so I shot Mac lol". I mean, it's not that, but that's kind of the mind frame behind it. And that is rare for mafia. MAYBE. Probably.

This is too bad, cause I was starting to think it might be her.

@Mizery What are all your town reads right now? Maybe you said, but I haven't retained

I don't understand how this is still hard

If everyone who's town could be much townier, that would be greatly appreciated.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:19 am Casual reminder that mac probably doesn't have the coin and is intentionally voting his townread. Mac should know I'm town at this point.

How should he know?

Sigh. Ok. I'm not at all very sold on Arc being mafia.
If he's mafia, I think he's playing this in a very open way. Which he did mention, that he often doesn't lie as mafia. Most things he says seems reasonable. Yeah, he focuses on slightly irrelevant things some, but he definitely seems very perceptive towards the game. The points against him is mainly the weird hammer on Falcon, and I guess the egging on at LC/Screen fight on D1.

I've thought a lot about DDL, and just decided that I don't think it's him. I think he comes across as his town self overall. And I think he is unlikely to choose the NAA kill, because I think he was pretty heavily on NAA for the entire D3.

I don't really think it's Porscha. Not necessarily because of the derp. This is not really that strong, I just don't feel like she is.

I absolutely don't think it's Lag. Good job if it is lol.

I don't have solid reasons for why it isn't Jack. I don't know why he would make an NAA kill there though. Except NAA did suss him. But still.

I don't know what I think of Mizery. My meta perception is that they can come off pretty similar as either alignment.

Some overall things that are on my mind:

1. HK didn't do much and seemed pretty content to just roll over. I think it's likely that he thought the last mafia had a pretty ok shot at winning. And as I'm writing this, I realise that he lost and wouldn't technically care about whether mafia won in the end. So maybe this doesn't matter as much anyway. I would think though, knowing HK, that he's definitely rooting for mafia. Blah, this point got moot, cause he can't win anymore.

2. The NAA kill is still so fucking weird to me.

I think I'm taking out Lag, DDL and Porscha.

But now I'm questioning my DDL read again. Because what was the point of Falcon going at DDL? I don't know if he actually thought he would be able to get DDL chopped instead of him.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 11:17 pmI just need town not to fuck this up.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 8:09 pm

Mizery wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 8:04 pm I'm between dragon and arc so arc being between me and dragon doesn't look so terrible to me except that everyone else considers dragon to be cleared (i still don't know why. I read things. I don't think he's cleared.)

I can't speak for others but the main reason they townread me seems to be my interactions with falcon on day 1.

Do you think you've been towny otherwise?

Arcbell wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:21 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:19 pm I want to take mizery, porscha and luffy off the table today. Sorry if wrong.

I agree with taking porscha off the table. Lag probably wouldn't have gone to the trouble to elucidate porscha's derpclear as maf in this dire situation, that's my main reason to town read them atm, but their thought process also seemed pretty natural and unagenda'd throughout the game

This is the same thing I thought about Lag trying to get Porscha to derp. Besides the other reasons I town read Lag.

Done-ish at work-ish. Will catch up-ish.

Good morning. I have almost no time to play today, until I’m done at work. If you want any input from me, please don’t hammer early.

I’m unvoting for now

Also, let's not hammer before DDL and Porscha gets here

Arcbell wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:16 pm The upshot is that mac gets his ~2/n chance each night regardless since we learned it takes the coin from the person before and after the rand ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You talk like you don't expect or want to chop mafia today.

HMMMMMMMMM

Lag wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 5:26 pm Actually I just asked nanook and ties are broken in mafia's favor so a tied vote will never kill a mafia.

Although a practical application of the monty hall problem is exciting. It does not offset my enthusiasm for guaranteeing a town death today.

We are not tying votes if town is guaranteed to die.

I'd rather we just vote whoever is the likeliest mafia.

Want to hear from DDL now

Does Mac exit the game if he gets the coin?

But like, if there is a mechanical safe way with no drawbacks for town, then go ahead. =p

I like the one where mafia just claims.

Arcbell wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:20 pm Holy shit guys if the coin assigns AFTER mac's steal we can use the vote count to help determine who has the coin

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.

Like, it's not our wincon. Mac did lovely work for town. But he also forgot to search for the coin 2/3 times. If he gets it and wins with us, that's great. But us winning is the only priority, for me at least.

We should just try to hit mafia.

I want to hear from DDL and Porscha. And then I don't mind an early hammer.

Lag wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:14 pmUnless town 3p doesn't have coin yet, in which case they might not out because they're losing either way

Then they could just cc, and we would sleep until they had the coin, and then win.

But Mac's claim is true, so moot.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:03 pmCongrats.

Thanks. Too bad I spent most of the day whining instead =p

Lag wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:02 pmWeren't you just talking about a game where you lost to a 3p claim?

I'm fine with helping Mac but not if it results in playing against the wincon. I will not be voting for anyone I think is townie in the interest of prolonging the game, lol

I was obviously not for seriously.

(Now I must always construct sentences that doesn't make sense when talking to you.)