The Syndicate

Congrats the theme winners!

Ah thanks indiglo, I missed that post

Also, now that we can talk about it:

What was the thing that cleared Wilgy?

My Boomer searches were:
N1 - MetalMarsh
N2 - Epi (when the Athena is revived as boomer theory was going around)
N3 - LoRab
N4 - Sig
N5 - 3J
N6 - Wilgy
And then I stopped cause Boomer died. I thought about using it on dead Glorf to see if it would work but decided against it in case he'd been recruited.

Oh wow, sorry I was so useless in endgame guys. Fitting that my last hour or two was useless But really good game everyone, sorry for my recent absense, and some of my really bad EoD choke votes.

@ Goldama - Thanks for hosting, and again sorry for my absence that popped up. I thought I would be able to keep up while I was on vacation but it didn't work out as well as I'd hoped. From what I saw, this may have been the best hosting I have seen, there were so many things you had to keep track of with people's win conditions and events being based off of things they said. That in addition to the laws, revivals, and possible conversions. Really cool game design.

Out of curiosity, how did Boomer end up town when I didn't convert her? Did somebody else have an ability to, or could Glorf self-convert based on something he said? Also, were there any events that we never triggered?

G-Man wrote:A
Does anyone else read him as kicking his game up a notch after the FF's rolled back into town? That's how it looks to me. Back in a bit with vote observations on DrumBeats.

I will admit I was getting demotivated by the huge wall of lore that alignments were being hidden behind preF5, especially since a lot of information that people were considering as fact such as Wilgy's "confirmed civ" phase was information I could not see and make an informed opinion on. Allowing us to finally see alignments reinvigorated things for me and remotivated me, before vacation prompty pushed me away again.

Wait shit this was EoD? I just saw the poll close my bad, I thought we still were on the around 10 EST updates so I thought I had more time.

Currently on page 209, OA has also been pinging me as I go. I feel like she's talked a lot without actually contributing anything

Going to make a logistical reference for myself as I get started here, probably a stating the obvious for everyone else, so I'm sorry, I just wanted it up for reference, I put it in a spoiler.

Spoiler: show

Also, responding to yesterday's president prompt, though much of it is outdated since Spacedaisy flipped scum. Also in a spoiler.

Spoiler: show

Posted that last one and forgot to post these too. Woops.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I demand GTH reads immediately from everyone on Matt.

I'm not sharing mine until I have yours. Life isn't fair.

Civ. His conspiracy theories are all over the place but have been mostly consistent all game. Only inconsistency I have noted is that he has been very lore-heavy with these theories such as the F5, yet has heavily entertained the Epi is mafia theory, which seems very inconsistent with the lore from what I've heard.

Currently on page 207 and catching up. Currently think Wilgy is the best lynch for the day, that Epi is civ, that 3J is civ, and that Nero/juliets are civ.

So say we all!

Back from vacation now so my activity should be picking up, going to read the last day and post thoughts, but I wanted to make sure I got the so say we all.

Still busy on vacation but going to drop by a quick vote on

John Cavil

Just in case people want to test that out so we can try out my plan. I'll try to catch up more later

#2

@ G-Man Outline:

One Confirmed cylon claims to suspect John Cavil

We split votes between an agreed upon top suspect and John Cavil, making sure they are tied and that the cylon in question is votin john cavil.

If cylon is civ then Cavil is lynched. We should check what happens when we do this before doing this plan so it does not mess with our results.

If cylon is scum, our main suspect is lynched. Then we know for sure that cylon is aligned with Cavil.

We may need to find out how lynching Cavil works though in order to make sure that it doesn't go to the person with the next most votes, which would render this plan useless

So Say we all!

#1

I'm going to be really busy most of this week. I'm on vacation and am not going to be spending too much time in front of a computer for it, but I'll try my best to contribute.

I think I may have come up with a way to use this new law to settle each cylon's alignment once and for all. Additionally, it could answer any mysteries involving lynching John Cavil. Only problem with the plan is that it would take a large amount of coordination that I'm not sure if people will be willing to not deviate from. And the fact that there is a bit of uncertainty in what happens when we lynch Cavil. If anybody finds a flaw in the plan or a way to optimize it, please do so. Here it is:

Cylon in question (or player for that matter, but I personally feel using it on cylons is the best idea) will claim to suspect Cavil. We set up two lynches. Our main lynch choice for the day, and then one lynch on John Cavil. The main lynch would need to be tied with the Cavil lynch, and the player in question would need to vote Cavil. If the player is civ, their vote on cavil is negated and our main lynch target is lynched. If the player is Cavil-aligned, then Cavil would gain an extra vote, putting him ahead. Then we do not know what will happen, but the two most likely options that I can see are that Cavil would be lynched or that there would be a no lynch. We may want to test a direct Cavil lynch before trying this idea out just in case it goes to the second most votes or something, so we do not think somebody is clear from this when it is really the opposite.

Oh wow, great job people who voted for SVS. I am absolute shit, I'm getting off for the night. I'll try to look at things with fresh eyes later, but wow I was wrong.

#8

Oh wait, my bad, worded that wrong trying to get it out quick. I meant we know that all mafia are cylons, my bad!

#7

If you read my posts you'd know Epi. We know all cylons are mafia. We know who 6 cylons are. We know the other 4 are hidden amongst 12 players (assuming none are dead civ cylons that were scumkilled). We know you are a cylon.

Statistics + Information make your lynch the better one imo.

#6

Fuck it, Epig - more information to gain, higher likelihood of being scum. Lets let either a tie break vote or RNG decide this one.

# 5

Ok so there are currently 10 cylons left in the game (5 of the ones that began the game as cylons + the final 5). We KNOW the mafia lie in these cylons.

We know of 6/10 of these cylons.

Confirmed Cylons: (6)
Epi
Wilgy
Nero
Dex
Juliets
Spacedaisy

Remaining players: (4/13 are cylons)
BR
DB
G-Man
insertname
3J
Matt
OA
Polo
Rabbit
Rico
SVS
Sig
Sokoth

Knowing that the mafia have to be within the cylons, I believe lynching within that tonight is the best idea. I highly doubt all of the mafia are there, but there are likely more there than not.

My ranking of them, in order of suspiciousness (top - least Bottom - most):
Spacedaisy
Wilgy
Dex
Epi
Nero
Juliets

Juliets' certainty in Epi being scum in the death message just doesn't feel natural to me. I believe that if Dex or Epi is mafia, the other one is too based on Dex's sudden lumping of Epig in with Wilgy in his diehard defense.

Lynches I am considering (in order of preference)

Epig - Now I know what you're saying, why Epig if he is the third most likely to be scum in your opinion? And the answer is simple. Information. Epig's alignment will shed light on almost every other player in that group of players depending on how he flips. If he flips town, Juliet's death message is that much more suspicious. If he flips scum, Dex is likely his scumbuddy. Just the sheer information that can be found in this lynch with a relatively decent probability of flipping scum too is appealing to me.

Juliets - A close second, I really think that Juliet's death message was such a sudden shift in ideology that it was likely prompted by an alignment change.

Nero - A lot of assuring us "I'm a civ" "Not mafia" just doesn't read well with me

@ linki I don't like the inflation on SVS votes. I also don't like SpaceDaisy's vote in particular, since she believes 2-3 mafia are in the final five. Why then would a civ F5 not want to lynch a F5 member?

Post #4

Interesting. If what Nerolunar says about the F5 being told of their new allegiance post-death is correct then we can examine these death posts a bit. I am noticing that juliet's post about Epi is rather odd imo. This was before Glorf was revealed to be town, and Juliet's 180 turn about Epi strikes me as odd. It could have easily been that Juliets was given a new alignment and wanted to throw some shade on Epi or possible distancing between the two if the mafia F5 were told who their partners were. Nero's death post too pings me a bit. Assuring us that he's not evil in the death post and then assuring us that he's civ on his first post isn't a good look imo.

@ Dex
@ juliets
@ Spacedaisy

How many people in the F5 do you believe are mafia?

#3

Dex wrote:#5

DrumBeats wrote:I do not think I am comfortable with believing that both Wilgy and Epig are civ after the Glorf flip. Dex, what do you think in that regard? .
I am comfortable with that. What makes you uncomfortable?

Numbers. One more question, and this applies to all four final five revived people, how many of the final five do you believe are likely Cavil-aligned? Just take a guess

Post #2

I do not think I am comfortable with believing that both Wilgy and Epig are civ after the Glorf flip. Dex, what do you think in that regard?

Nero, can you please identify your wills for us?

I'll do a more extensive post later, but I wanted to get that question to Dex while he's on.

So Say We All!

Post 1

Notes from the OP after these events:

Alive:
Nerolunar - post history - lynched day three - Saul Tigh - Town aligned - resurrected dawn nine

Dead:
nutella - post history - lynched day two - Simon O'Neill - Cavil aligned

LoRab - post history - lynched day four - D'Anna Biers - Independent

Long Con - post history - lynched day five - Admiral Helena Cain Town aligned
Glorfindel - post history - lynched day seven - Sharon "Boomer" Valerii - Town aligned
Bea - post history - lynched day eight - Sam Anders - Town aligned

It seems that we know who four of the final five are, but we now need to figure out how the final five works in regards to alignment, which is a pain in the ass. I'm currently betting on it being a 4 civ/1 mafia split or maybe a 3 civ/2 mafia, as giving them a choice I feel would be a bit broken, since if they all chose mafia we would be completely screwed. I am also wondering if Nero's town aligned is only referring to the base role, or if it is now as well. I feel like just putting town-aligned up there would be a bit bastard if that is not still the case, since the alignments were revealed just now, but that could just be me.

Dead who have returned: Please identify which death messages were yours.

The fact that only one of our lynched cylons flipped town makes me a bit skeptical that both Wilgy and Epi are civ cylons. Flavor implies that Epi is apparently, but people said that flavor made Boomer mafia, and that seems to not be true. I'm also a bit shocked that LC turned out to be town, not independent.

@ Matt - If you want to ignore the SSWA to test it out be my guest. I don't see what you're saying about me "trying to throw it under the rug" because I have been very transparent about the way my punishments have been delivered. I cannot help it that the host was late in dealing the punishment (and I can't really blame him either because this game is so involved, I'm amazed he's not more behind than he is on everything).

Reads:
Black Rock - Scum
Dex - F5
DrWilgy - Scum (but likely not with Sig)
Epignosis - Civ
G-Man - Civ
insertnamehere - Civ
JaggedJimmyJay - Civ
juliets - F5
Matt - Civ
Nerolunar - F5 - Civ?
ObscureAllure - Civ
Polo - Scum
Rabbit8 - Scum
Ricochet - Civ
S~V~S - Civ (If Polo is Civ then maybe not so much)
sig - Scum (but likely not with Wilgy)
SokothQultuq - Civ
Spacedaisy - F5

Post Economy will be crucial now guys, so try to load up some beefy posts. Make sure to save your tenth one for voting too!

@ Linki Polo A lot of Civ reads in there. Do you believe that the mafia is composed of two people + some F5 now, or do you believe there to be more? Don't respond immediately, wait for some more things so you don't waste your posts, you've already lost two. I would like an actual case on SVS too please.

ObscureAllure wrote:MATT

DO YOU
THINK
RECRUITMENT
IS VERY LIKELY
IN THIS
GAME?!

I'm not Matt, but I think it is a possibility for how the final five mechanic could come into play. I remember people saying/looking into it on the wiki, that of the final five, most of them sided with the humans in the show and one sided with the cylons. I'm wondering if the cylons have a role that lets them recruit the final five over to their side.

ObscureAllure wrote:
Matt wrote:RIP bea.

Not going to lie, you were one of my top susses. One reason that I never shared was that Glorfindel at one point used the word "maths". I looked into his entire post history at the Syndicate, and he had never used that word before until this game. And I know you use the word "maths" often, so I thought maybe you were saying it in btsc and he picked up on it.

Alas, that wasn't so.

Now, ObscureAllure, I would like to know...

ObscureAllure wrote:Bea - I keep seeing you say you're a nub player. have you not been playing for years?
What was your intent with this post? Did you think that bea was trying to trick people into thinking she was actually a nub who just started playing? Tbh, this question just seems like it's there to make bea jump through hoops and I don't like it.

The point of the post is exactly as it sounded. She has said multiple times this game that she's a "nub" (the slang of newbie) player and it is odd to me because she was around years ago before I took a break. You can't really be a newbie at something you've been playing for years. It felt like she was using that as an excuse (oh, I can't figure out who the mafia are because I'm just a lowly nub!" Type of a feel. How on earth does that make me suspicious?

I'm beginning to understand that Matt jokes because you pick the weirdest, not role related shit to harp on.

To be fair, as someone who doesn't know how long any of you were here, I thought Bea was actually a "nub" using the newbie defense.

Polo wrote:
S~V~S wrote:
Polo wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Polo, what degree of confidence do you have in your read on S~V~S?
High enough for me to say this: if she's lynched and she's not Cylon, then you can lynch me on the next day.

I am 100% sure she's mafia.
Are you claiming to have info? Becasue that would be impossible. And that would be the only 100% you could have, tbh.

And Jay, I kept poking her over & over, and she kept not responding. Since the Nutella lynch. Had she just once poked back, I would have backed off, but she never did, and she posted tons

The only way you could be sure that it'd be impossible for me to have info is if you know you killed the character that can have that information.

Wait, is that how things work here? On this site, do the mafia know what role they killed, or is it unknown to them too?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Matt wrote:3J - I notice you did not post at all on Day 7. Before Day 7, how many So Say We All's had you missed?
I'd missed four, but Golden also fell behind on the treason stuff for a while so that muddies this line of thinking.

Care to fill in the 4th punishment to complete the list?

Punishments I know of:
1 - Warning
2 - Penalty Vote Next Day
3 - Brig
4 - ?
5 - Brig
6 - Modkill

Polo wrote:
S~V~S wrote:If I recall correctly, I got a bit of a scolding from JJJ for having too many civs on that list, but OK. You're on it
It's funny that only 2 of the 7 people you read as bad are still alive. One of them is a confirmed Cylon who we believe is Civ (DrWilgy) and Sig.

The other 5 were either lynched with your assistance and turned out to be anti-Cavil (Bea, Long Con, LoRab) or nightkilled (Dex, Spacedaisy).

I would call Long Con anti-anti-Cavil if that makes sense. He likely wasn't in Cavil's faction, but his martial law in my opinion would have helped Cavil's group in the long run because we would eventually be forced to rid of our civ cylons.

Matt wrote:By Day Four, 3J had missed three So Say We All's, so if you get the brig for three times, then 3J should've been silenced Day 5.

By Day Two, Vomps had missed three So Say We All's, so if you get the brig for three times, then Vomps should've been silenced Day 3.

These players were not silenced for those days.

Hrm.

So why do you get three times Drum?

As 3J said, Golden mentioned being behind on them. You can find him saying that if you ISO Golden. I received the 2nd and 3rd punishment on the same day phase because of it

Matt wrote:Drumbeats...

On May 7th, you said...

DrumBeats wrote:Good:

JJJ
ika
G-Man

Toastery:

Rico
Vompatti
LoRab

FoS: Ricochet

Richochet has been arguably the most vocal player this game, but looking back, Ricochet has provided nothing with his/her many posts. The only thing Rico did was attempt to discredit basically every other post. This is a very proscum approach because its sole purpose is to reduce town information. Rico has not provided a single town/toaster read iirc. In all of those posts, there is no reason to have no reads at all imo. I don't know meta, so I can't judge based on that, but nothing about this behavior strikes me as protown.
On May 8th, you said...

DrumBeats wrote:Good:
JJJ
Ika
SVS - I don't know meta, but all of his posts have a genuine effort to help the town imo and he brings up a lot of good points.

Toaster:
Rico - Still seen no real reads or anything, just self-defense. This guy isn't even pinging my scumdar anymore, it's going loco everytime he posts.
G-Man - SVS's points on his post are incredibly valid imo. Summarizing is an easy way to feign information and I didn't notice that before.
Obscure/Vompetti - I really don't like how they both locked a vote for seemingly no reason.
On May 9th, you said...

DrumBeats wrote:I'm honestly feeling better about Rico now than I was yesterday.
And that was it.

Explanation?

That was a long time ago, but I think I remember it being due mostly to his fight with Ika and him beginning to start taking more stances. The fight with ika made me think that mafia wouldn't put themselves at the forefront of that pointless of bickering and draw attention to themselves that way, and he began to take stances, which was absent from much of his day one imo.

DrumBeats wrote:
Polo wrote: The more I read back into this game, the more I believe Glorfindel could have been civ and that Epignosis could be mafia.
Elaborate. Tell us where/why if you want to convince us. It's going to take a hell of a good reason, and based on your SVS post, I'm not confident you can deliver.

Polo, response please.

sig wrote:If we delve into that level of paranoia I have two theories.

1. if they were to kill me it would make people more likely to take what I said seriously namely me saying we should lynch Wilgy.
2. I speculated about this early in that I think the mafia attempted to kill me early in the game, but for some reason there kill failed.

I think my first theory is much more likely and think tomorrow we should be lynching Wilgy.

That doesn't answer my question. I was asking as to why you think the mafia killed Dex to frame you, and how exactly mafia killing Dex frames you.

Here is what I would like a response to Sig:

DrumBeats wrote:
sig wrote:Yes since he was killed to frame me.

My change on Epi wasn't a flipflop he addressed my concerns and I was fine after that. Though there is still a world he is mafia. :P

iirc not much framing was necessary for you to gaim suspicion. Why do you think mafia would use their night kill just to frame you?

Also, I would like a reply from Sig and Polo to my responses a few pages back.

S~V~S wrote:I am going to

*Vote Bea*

Her answers were scrambly & vague. The main other person I came into today suspecting, sig, dropped down my list with what I felt was not an answer a baddie would give about how he survived. Not totally off the list, but down it quite some ways.

Most of the game I felt pretty good about Jay, and rereading him made me get that feel back. His recent suspicion of rabbit got my back up somewhat since it seemed somewhat biased by general demeanor, which struck me as possibly opportunistic and not totally Jay, but like I said, reading back reminded me of why I trusted him in the first place.

Imo though Bea's answers were clearer than Rabbit's. Bea provided a full set of reads that mostly felt genuine, while Rabbit just kind of said people were scum with no reasoning. I'll agree that Bea's behavior is weird, but imo so has Rabbit. The fact that he will not provide any reasoning for his strong scumread on 3J and refuses to answer really strikes me the wrong way.

I will be voting for Rabbit8

G-Man wrote:Apologies for splitting this up but I want to get this out there before too close to the deadline. I'll post the vote analysis portion after I eat dinner.

Behavioral Observations:

Pre-Day 1 he jumped right in and tried to help with the opening decoding puzzle

-Night 1 he becomes an early adherant of 1) Epi is civ-aligned and 2) Not all Toasters are bad. He asks people for their thoughts about the merits of the checkerboard sortie plan.

Day 2 he initially suspects Nutella for very silly reasons (the letter N isn't common- um, watch Wheel of Fortune much?) The primary reasoning was that I agreed with JJJ's case

Day 3 he recommends we use either Glorfindel or bea on the counterwagon to LoRab instead of Nero, who flipped human. Later on, as the Nero train is established, he reverses course and suggests we put Nero in the lead over LoRab, which would nix our ability to confirm her amnesty claim.

Day 4 he thanks Cain for martial law (even though it makes the game harder to win for the civs)

Night 5 he seems pretty firm in thinking that Wilgy is bad and says he'll be suspicious of Wilgy defenders if Wilgy flips as Caprica 6.

Day 6 he still pursues his suspicion of Wilgy and chides those who buy into Wilgy being Caprica 6 or #2. He also questions Dex's and Polo's motives for entertaining the notion that Wilgy is civ-aligned. He also questions the issue of balancing a game with a small baddie team.

Day 7 he was in the brig, I think.

Correcting a few things here for accuracy sake. I never thanked Cain for Martial Law. I told him he should reverse it. Here's the quote:

So say we all.

LoRab is the clear lynch today, since he claimed cylon to get out of his last one. And now that Cain put us in martial law, thanks for that by the way, we have to lynch them all.

Cain, seriously though reconsider this martial law. 8 cylons + the final five = 13 specific people that need to be dead for town to win.

LoRab being first would be the safest call imo. In case the law is removed later, Epig would still be on our side.

And I would MM, but I did it yesterday.

Additionally, I did not suspect them for entertaining it, it was for the certainty they possessed that it is true, which would makes sense if they were mafia.

sig wrote:Yes since he was killed to frame me.

My change on Epi wasn't a flipflop he addressed my concerns and I was fine after that. Though there is still a world he is mafia. :P

iirc not much framing was necessary for you to gaim suspicion. Why do you think mafia would use their night kill just to frame you?

S~V~S wrote:
Polo wrote:
S~V~S wrote:And publicly disagreeing with you is something only baddies do? Epi just did it and I see you think he is a baddie, too.

I speak my mind, son. Always.
My suspicion of him has nothing to do with what he thinks about my post.
Well, it seems like it could be a pattern.

Question; in a Mafia game where we post publicly in a thread, how else am I to disagree with you than "publicly"?

I appreciate you coming up with this. But you did not like the way I reacted to your post, so you went back through my posts & votes looking for things that fit your preconceived idea.

I wonder if this means that Polo might have BTSC and somebody in it disagreed with him privately? A bit far-fetched I guess but it seems plausible to me

Polo wrote: The more I read back into this game, the more I believe Glorfindel could have been civ and that Epignosis could be mafia.

Elaborate. Tell us where/why if you want to convince us. It's going to take a hell of a good reason, and based on your SVS post, I'm not confident you can deliver.

Pointing out logical fallacies here. Will be in blue in the post.

Polo wrote:ObscureAllure, how in the heavens is sig a confirmed Cylon?

____________________________________________________________________

Going back a bit:

The Glorfindel/G-Man interaction smells artificial and fishy to me, and not like a red herring. I have to ISO G-Man because he appears to be trying too hard to look neutral. He could be mafia too.

G-Man wrote:As I see no reason not to, vote = Glorfindel

Burning bridges on your way out is considered poor form.
Is this you trying to burn the bridge that leads us to you, G-Man?

____________________________________________________________________

Very well, my post on S~V~S.

DISCLAIMER: I am working with the hypothesis that S~V~S is mafia, and possibly John Cavil. I will explain here why I think she's mafia and why I think she's Cavil, and all commentary will be made with the assumption that I am correct.
Should I convince you to lynch her, there could be two outcomes to this:

> S~V~S is civ: I will gladly accept to be lynched on the following day if this is the case, which I doubt it will be.
> S~V~S is mafia: We'll be much closer to victory.

Therefore, I am playing this move like a poker player going all in with the entire stake; and I only do this in poker when I truly believe I am going to reap the rewards.
Let's begin:

Day 1: S~V~S voted Ricochet:

She voted Rico near the closing of the poll, even though she suspected G-Man, because she "didn't want to spread the votes", and Rico's insistence on the importance of saying "so say we all" was making her suspicious. This is a lame excuse for a vote, IMO. But it is after all Day 1, and it doesn't matter much.

Day 2: S~V~S voted nutella:

Nutella was Number Four, and according to show lore, the #4 aboard the fleet was reluctant to support the Cylon cause. The other #4s were all evil.
If this game's Simon O'Neill was mafia, then I can see this vote being S~V~S throwing one of her own under the bus in order to escape any suspicion, for her survival is vital to the Cavil faction.
If this game's Simon O'Neill is based on the good #4, then this is S~V~S eliminating a nuisance.

She said if Nutella flips bad, then Spacedaisy is bad too. Spacedaisy was NK'd on N5. She wanted Daisy gone and some players even began to read her as bad, e.g. Dex, but it didn't work out and mafia decided to nightkill her.

Why then, if SVS felt like she had something she could push (that Spacedaisy was bad if nutella was) would she waste her night kill on Daisy? That would make no sense and be a terrible move for her.

Day 3: S~V~S voted Lorab:

S~V~S was the 5th vote on the Lorab bandwagon. If D'Anna Biers was civ, then this is mafia attempting to eliminate a target. If D'Anna was mafia, this could be an attempt to make oneself's vote record clean to the eyes of investigators. Other than this, nothing much suspicious on this day.

Day 4: S~V~S voted Lorab:

S~V~S was extremely certain at Day 4 that Long Con was Admiral Cain. At such an early date, in which no one could have amassed enough material to narrow down people to their roles, this kind of certainty is abnormal - and it leads me to believe that her rolepower (or the rolepower of some mafioso with whom she has BTSC) is to discover her target's role. Nonetheless, she jumped on the Lorab wagon, and was the 10th person to vote for her.

On this very day, JaggedJimmyJay decided to get everyone to do GTH reads. Here are S~V~S's reads:

red = mafia
black = good

a2thezebra (now Rabbit)
bea
Black Rock
Dex: dead
DrWilgy (CYLON)
Drumbeats
Epignosis (CYLON)
G-Man
Glorfindel: dead (CYLON)
JJJay
juliets: dead
Long Con: dead
LoRab: dead (CYLON)
Matt
Marmot: dead
ObscureAllure
Polo
Ricochet
Scotty: dead
Sig
Silverwolf
SokothQultuq
Spacedaisy: dead
Vompatti: dead

____

On Night Four is when I started to suspect S~V~S.

This exchange jumped to my eyes:

S~V~S wrote:
Polo wrote:I'll repeat myself: I'd rather go after Cavil and his pack before doing anything with regards to Cain.
Do you know who he is?

Let's do it. Give me a name.
S~V~S was the only person here who argued with me on this. It's a major red flag in my book. By showing confidence at asking me to give her a name, she wanted me to forget any possibility of her being Cavil, but this little trick was her big mistake.

I don't see how you jump from asking a name of Cavil to forgetting the possibility of her being Cavil. There seems to be no logical connection between those two ideas imo.

She somehow KNEW Long Con was Cain, she had suspected him before and definitely had him checked before convincing everyone he was Cain and that Cain should die before Cavil, thus freeing her and her mates from the disadvantages of martial law.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 64#p279764
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 50#p279750
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 55#p279755

By being the only person to actually confront me on this, she revealed 3 things: 1. She was dead certain Long Con was Cain, and this must have required the act of a rolechecker; 2. She showed how martial law was against her interests; 3. She revealed that it would be more beneficial to her to lynch a Cylon-hating human than to try to find and kill a Cylon before doing anything with regards to martial law.

Martial law could only be bad to the civ team if the civ team decided to go after the good Cylons. Nobody in this game had an intent to lynch the good Cylons like Epignosis, so martial law could have been ignored until we had killed the Cavil faction, after which we could lynch Long Con.

I will actually argue that Martial law was beneficial to the scum team. We as a town, without martial law, are able to pursue scum on any night we please. With martial law, we always have to consider lynching our confirmed civ cylons. Mafia is being hunted regardless, so broadening our targets benefitted them heavily. Only way that it could not have benefitted them is if Epi was actually mafia.

S~V~S needed Long Con gone ASAP more than anyone on this game. She is part of the Cavil faction; more than simply that, she is John Cavil.

Day 5: S~V~S voted DrWilgy:
I believe Dr. Wilgy is civ, and that he's either Caprica Six or Leoben Conoy.

Day 6: S~V~S voted sig:
Sig is someone I've read as mafia before but who I've begun to read as a civ.

Day 7: I don't know who she voted for on day 7 - I forgot to add that day's votes onto my spreadsheet. Can anybody give me a hand on this?

Day 5 and 6 are basically: I do not agree with her, she's mafia. Terrible logic.

ObscureAllure wrote:So both sig and Wigly are confirmed cylons due to surviving their lynches. I think we can all agree that there is likely only one good cylon left. This means at least one of the two of them should be bad. Are we not going to discuss this?

Didn't we come to the conclusion that there were likely two goods left earlier (Cap Six + Leoben)? I remember that was what Dex was pushing

Matt wrote:I don't know what happened there. Derp.

Anyway, so Drum gets put in the brig after missing the SSWA three times, yet Vomps gets five times.

Does this mean anything?

Be back later peeps.

Probably a duplicate punishment, but it seems Wilgy and 3J I think had the same thing, along with numerous others.

Punishments I know of:
1 - Warning
2 - Penalty Vote Next Day
3 - Brig
4 - ?
5 - Brig
6 - Modkill

G-Man wrote:As I feared might happen, coming off of Glorfindel's lynch, my other suspicions are either soft or in flux. Bear with me while I try to reason a few things out.

Looking at the player list, I know of a few players that I trust to be civ:

DrWilgy- This is based almost exclusively on my full-on conversion to trusting Dex over the last few days. He was one of Wilgy's strongest defenders. This makes me think the baddies got rid of him in order to open up some room on pursuing Wilgy. Dex seemed pretty confident in the lore that Wilgy's role is not with Cavil. There have been arguments over such lore but I'll trust the dead on this one.

...

sig- He's my softest civ read because I last had him as my #2 baddie. That whole non-lynch plus Gaius taking over has me thinking still. I don't see how a baddie could play a part in triggering those events. Call it a reluctant or cautious civ read. I just have trouble seeing anything else but civ for him given the circumstances.

My lunch break is over and I've got a mountain of work to do at the office (ah, the joys of a compressed, four-day payroll week!) so I have to leave for now.

With Wilgy, I'm not sure I would clear him based on Dex's death. Its a very WIFOM situation, because a scum Wilgy could easily have killed Dex to make us believe that. Definitely don't think it's the right time to push Wilgy right now, as assuming Dex's lore guesses were right, there should only be a 50/50 shot now on which type of cylon he is after the Boomer flip.

With the sig read, Golden did mention that the Gaius take-over thing was seperate from the lynch results so it could have just been a coincidence, but I'm not really sure. One shot lynch immunity could be a mafia role.

Polo wrote:I'm voting S~V~S[b/] because I think she's mafia. Post coming in the next hour.

Not thrilled with the early vote, especially based upon reasoning that has yet to be provided at the time of the vote. The analysis of the dead players also seems incredibly off imo, discrediting Indiglo as bad, but suppporting the likely scum "Epi is mafia" poster.

rabbit8 wrote:I do suspect you, JJJ, from things other than what I have said.

However, it does not make me want to vote for you, yet.

I want to see other players lynched first. It would help what I think of you one way or the other.

I don't want to get players to vote for you today.

This is not my intent. I got into in the night because I had nothing better to do. I will be pushing a bea and Ricco lynch today.

If you think I'm bad, vote for me. I will still push for players I think are more bad then you today.

Spill the beans on this. Whatever reasoning you have needs to be made public so we can all consider it. Witholding information only benefits the mafia.

rabbit8 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:rabbit8 made the cardinal error of making the mechanics fit his "suspicion." Ricochet asked about how 3J could be bad if nutella is, and rabbit didn't disappoint. The first thing he came up with was two mafia teams.

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.
Two mafia factions.
His first way to justify 3J being bad was two mafia actions, but he added this after:

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

Or throw someone under the bus? Is this not done anymore?

I think two mafia teams in this size games makes more sense though.
The fact that rabbit added "Is this not done anymore?" indicates that he is equally, if not more, at home with people throwing teammates under the bus, and that makes me think that, if he were expressing his natural thoughts, he would have mentioned this one first. He didn't. He speculated on the mechanics first, and added this as a second thought. However, he hedged with what he "thinks" makes more sense (i.e. two mafia teams).

Keep in mind that all of this is to solidify a 3J suspicion, and this is key. Follow me:

3J is bad.

How? He went against nutella!

It's simple. There are two mafia teams.

Okay, I follow. That means 3J is genuinely hunting the other team and caught nutella.

Or he threw somebody under the bus.

Okay, I get that. That means 3J is on the same team as nutella, and he ditched her.

But there are totally two teams.

++++

The existence of two mafia teams doesn't condemn 3J any more than it does anybody else. In fact, if anything, it works in 3J's favor, because he's likely not on the second team. But that doesn't matter, because 3J threw nutella under the bus (same team) even though there are, according to rabbit8, two teams!

rabbit8's accusation of 3J is based on two conflicting scenarios, and I don't think he believes either. He's full of shit.

Your move.

So now, for this bullshit.

I think JJJ is bad. We started spit balling ideas. I came up with a few scenarios where it would fit and make JJJ look bad when asked how it would make JJJ look bad.

Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

Two mafia factions.
Me and rico go back and fourth a bit.

Then I say this:

rabbit8 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:I feel the assumption that JJJ might be bad needs to pass the test of explaining how could JJJ have initiated and carried nutella's hunt all the way through on Day Two.

Or throw someone under the bus? Is this not done anymore?

I think two mafia teams in this size games makes more sense though.
There is a reason or is the first word I lead off with in this post. I fucking state in the post I think the idea of two mafia teams makes more sense. More sense then what you ask? More sense then the first sentence in the fucking quote.

Then OA mentions replacements and more spit balling goes on between people.

Ideas where being thrown out by more then just me. I was engaging the thread to get my point across. I think there are two mafia teams.

If not I think JJJ threw nutella under the bus.

Because...... I think he is bad.

This post is gross. You are basing your reasoning on the supposed end result of JJJ being mafia, rather than looking at the reasoning and then coming up with an opinion based upon it. The read then feels forced as hell because there is no reasoning to support the read, just the read which you have thrown out scenarios in which you think it could be true.

Also, @Slokoth, you left me out in your reads

So say we all!

I'm not liking Rabbit or Bea very much right now, but I cannot see the two as a scumpair. Leaning toward Rabbit being the scum of the two based on more recent behavior, but the Nutella/Zebra interactions were much better than the nutella/Bea interactions imo.

Similarly, I could see one of Sig and Wilgy being mafia, though I will admit much of the reasoning behind my distrust of Wilgy is that he is a for sure cylon, but not for sure town-aligned. Glorf's flip makes me a bit more willing to believe Wilgy for now though.

@insertnamehere - I think we can take the quotes at face value and work from there. For example, the first quote is clearly from indiglo, who was night killed, so I am heavily inclined to believe that it comes from a town mindset and should be trusted. The second quote however, I cannot deduce the poster and it seems to be pursuing an obvious antitown goal, so I do not really trust it.

So say we all!

Good lynch everybody, I was stuck in the Brig for forgetting the SSWA three times.

Dex wrote:
DrumBeats wrote:Vompatti's vote actually made mine put Sig one below Glorf, so I did not save him since my vote count was off. But to be fair I did not know this at time of the vote.
How is it that you did not know this?

I forgot about it and I was basing my vote count off of the poll.

DrWilgy wrote:When did Vonpatti drop that vote?

Linki - Yes drum, your reason is that there's a 60% chance that I'm scum. Statistic wise, great! reality wise, not so great. If you are willing to call me scum due to a 10% chance of me being scum compared to not being scum, that's just lazy (and not to mention not supported by anything in the thread, only show lore that maybe half of us know).

I said primary reasoning. I gave you my reasoning about not liking how you only started contributing once you were highly suspected. I have given reasons for every one of my suspicions, whether you like them or not, they are there.

DrWilgy wrote:
sig wrote:Glor is almost lock cleared maybe? idk.

Polo is almost certainly mafia. his content is super scummy as well as his other posts I'll pull some up tomorrow.
Zebra/Rabbit got to go they are super scummy espacilly after rabbits last minute attempt to lynch me either this is a save or he was trying to get rid of me since I suspected them.
Drum is mafia for voting me :P
Wilgy is cylon and MOST LIKELY MAFIA and he should be lynched.
Based on?

I'm actually starting to become annoyed at a handful of players stating "he's mafia he's mafia" while not providing any means or reason why that can be disputed or discussed. I think this is the last time I respond to "Wilgy's Mafia for no reason" and I'm not going to argue baseless claims anymore. This means you: Sig, Drum, OA, and Sokoth.

@Rabbit, you both saved Sig, the votes were in glorf's favor (as in potentially not getting lynched) during both of your votes.

Now we have a conundrum. We don't know why either of these players survived, one may be Gaius, Glorf may be cylon. We don't know anything now because of coinflips...

Saw this in linki before I got off and needed to respond. Where have I not provided reasoning? I have reasoned out every one of my suspicions.

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