Ricochet wrote:So my theory so far is shaping up like this:
if the stats are correct that a 1-vote 11-player tie took place and a player gets lynched through randomization, then it must mean the player who got lynched survived the lynch, according to his position 1
ergo any of the following players (BWT, Canuck, Epignosis, Golden, MP, Russ, SVS, Tranq, Unfurl, Wilgy - I'm not, but feel free to throw me in as well; I would have super dead and super pissed if I would have been lynched or if the Day would have ended with me having two votes) can be:
Ubzargan the Ruthless - Immune to NK/Lynch
Jilted Lover - Can’t die as long as ? alive
I don't believe that Lord of Thunder's +/-3 votes would have changed this situation, if he already manipulated something by the time the Day ended. either he added votes and then there is definitely a specific survivor, which Lordy may now choose to try to hint at; either he substracted votes and it's still a large pool of tied players and the theory above still applies, but with vague chances of pinpointing at anyone in particular
same with Windscout, we don't know how many votes he can take down, but I doubt it's up to 10
I'm not sure if The Immortal's random power can activate during the Day, but even if it can, it's really a stretch to imagine that he protected someone that early and the stars aligned so that the one person he randomly protected was the one person that randomly got lynched; plus, we haven't seen a second death
same with Terras. can he protect during the Day? if so, same stretch of the imagination
If I missed anything, let me know, but so far I believe this to be the conclusion: our non-lynched player today is Uzbargan or the Jilted Lover. unfortunately we have 11 candidates for this spot
You left out Master of Shadows:
Master of Shadows - Warrior of the Shadows
Position 1: Choose your own position
Position 2: You may post in the thread as your role
Position 3: Follow a player in the shadows and see who that player targets, affect the outcome.
Position 4: Cast a shadow on a player, all votes for that player will be cut in half
Position 5: Become a shadow, you can’t be night targeted and all votes for you will not count
Scotty wrote:Dom wrote:Are we going to talk about how Scotty's post clearly indicated he has BTSC?
Dom wrote:This post.
Scotty wrote:Spinning the old randomizer wheel before I leave for one my infamous 14 hour shifts today (help me).
I have a slight gut read that SVS has some power in this game, and I don't like it. So nothing against you, SVS, but you got my vote day 1.
Scotty has never played a RM before. Scotty assumed everyone is vanilla like in previous games. Scotty would not know about this. Scotty must have been told about this.
Unless I am misinterpreting the highlighted line...
Additionally, this is a huge contradiction. "Random vote"-->I think SVS is bad???
Ah, I see Dom was needling in on me. Fair enough, it was a little contradictory. Here's the longer explanation now that I'm not as rushed.
Because I don't see the use in complete random, my randomization was not so much random on the scale of the entire list of players, but a list of players that had more content-filled posts. Unlike the Day 0/1's from previous games, I didn't feel like looking at MIAs for the first lynch. It was theorized by numerous people throughout the day who had a better chance to recruit and who would be recruited. I don't think a recruiter would pick someone with a very low post count. Maybe someone with a slightly low count to remain hidden, sure. But someone like, say, DFaraday I don't see as Recruiter or Recruitee.
I looked at the big talkers that had recruiting strategies- Epi and Golden and their spat didn't stand out to me as recruiters/recruitees. MP, SVS, JJJ, birdwithteeth, Rico, etc were in the mix. But I had no real inclination between those, though I figured one of them maybe had some sort of overarching, suspicious recruiting method. SVS stood out to me early on for her recruiting strategy of someone that was smarter than her, works well as a team player and could swim under the radar. She seemed to really know what she was talking about, and that would scare me if she were the recruiter. But I really could have voted any of them. So I guess it was random in the sense that I just picked one that didn't seem to be causing too much of a ruckus or on anyone's radar.
In the end, it's a day 1 vote.
Also I don't have any idea what you're talking about with me "clearly in BTSC". I think you've got that aluminum foil hat on a little too tight. When I say "power" of course I don't mean abilities. I'm stupid, but not that stupid. (Though I did watch the rain with my head tilted up and my mouth open as a child.)
I guess power wasnt the best word choice in hindsight, but I was rushing off to work. Think of it more as "regard" or "esteem".
"Scotty assumed everyone is vanilla like in previous game"
wtf? When did I say that? Oh, I didn't. Please don't put words in my mouth, Dom. I'm only a child at heart, not by intelligence or temperament.
It's true that I'm not used to this type of game, but I'm learning as I go.
Now I sleep. Good night, and most likely see you all for day 2 tomorrow when I get off work at 11p est
Thank you for this, Scotty. This I can get behind. I have done similar things myself, eliminated people i did not suspect, and randomized between those that pinged me. So it's random, but it's not.
And I DO know alot about recruiting in Mafia, and have thought about it alot. I have played all four of BR & LCs Recruitment games (including this one), and was a recruiter in two of them. I have played in maybe a dozen games where recruiting was a major element. Every game I have hosted has involved recruiting, although not like THIS game. I have also had amazing teams; teams where the BTS itself was so much fun, and so close to perfect, that I know EXACTLY what I want in a team, and I hope to get it every game. It's the main reason I tend to prefer baddie roles, becasue they come with BTSC, and this next team might be the one. Although, tbh, nothing is better than civvie BTS. My favorite game ever was Sword of Truth on The Piano; I was a civvie, Kahlan, and I recruited a player, Typhoony, and what he brought to the table totally changed the dynamic of the game. We lost, but it still was my best game, and I always am trying to recreate that atmosphere if I can. So yeah, I know what I am looking for in a recruit, and like Bea said, it should ALWAYS be people you think are smarter than you, lol.
Linki, ah charts.
I have a bunch of things to do today, then I have a D & D game this after noon, so I won't be around much. Toodles.