The Syndicate

Aaaaand we're back. Sorta.

Lol and?

Also, assume Nut/Nifty did get that question earlier (I don't remember the details but I remembered reading your post like "asked and answered").

Would you still be certain they are bad together? If so, why?

Care to claim, Dizzy?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Dizzy

I believe you to be a Reaper.

All your posts with Silver in them are like "I suspect Silver but I suspect Jack more."

You vote Silver here

Spoiler: show

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/postin ... 4&p=357523

But then try to walk it back until Silver swings, saying you would be willing to switch to me or Nifty.

Spoiler: show

Dyslexicon wrote:I'd be willing to lynch any of Silver, Jack or Nifty.

@Nut, What are your thoughts on Nifty?

And spend the rest of the day talking about how Silver might be silenced and questioning Nifty.


I do not believe you are a doggie.

This is in addition to basically saying "What Dom said and also what SVS said" without being able to rephrase these arguments in her own words and without addressing my critiques of those arguments but rather continuing to vote me.

Reads like "I'd think harder about this but they I'd have to move my vote."/hiding behind other players. Dom and SVS had their own arguments. Silver and Dizzy did not.

@Dizzy

I believe you to be a Reaper.

All your posts with Silver in them are like "I suspect Silver but I suspect Jack more."

You vote Silver here
But then try to walk it back until Silver swings, saying you would be willing to switch to me or Nifty.
And spend the rest of the day talking about how Silver might be silenced and questioning Nifty.


I do not believe you are a doggie.

@SVS

You left the very bottom of my suspect list when you started talking about players other than me. Your points on LC rang true. Your points about me didn't, at least not until the last day phase or so.

I'm not saying there's no OMGUS aspect to my suspicion of you but that's not the primary reason for it or me backing off.

When you're talking 90% about me and I not only know your conclusion to be false but also disagree with your methods, you look 90% bad and must be lynched. When you are focusing on me 20% and your reasons are explained, only 10-15% of what you say looks bad. This puts you roughly in the middle as one of the x players jockeying for y townie slots.

S~V~S wrote:Quick cultural question; do you HCR folks mainly use others interactions with oneself to judge the actions of others?

Only players who think really highly of themselves.

Tldr: Back to null on Sprit. Time to do my homework.

Pretty sure Sprityo is bad.

SVS has been all over me all game and I hate it but at least it is somewhat consistent.

Sprityo was all about suddenly trusting me when I came out with the five confirmed townies thing but now that two of them are dead, I'm a top lynch priority and a distraction from getting anything else done. Like you know what's really distracting to me? Scummers pretending they suspect me.

sprityo wrote:Also Jack, while i rummage through your 250+ posts, could you at least give me opinions on other players? I dont recall anything from you recently aside from you trying to validate to everyone that brings up that they find you not town, why you are in fact town.

It's not my fault you aren't reading my posts about other players.

sprityo wrote:in fact

Vote: Jack

What was the question we asked yesterday? "Why should we NOT lynch jack?"

Because neither Silver Lantern nor GFish would have been lynched without me. Additionally, I was silenced after having the second most votes two days in a row.

A question I'm still waiting for an answer to is why people keep trying to lynch me in spite of the above statement and why they never seem to have an actual argument for me to address.

You usually scumhunt on gut alone? I mean seriously. At least give me some kinda tinfoil for why I am bad. You're Long Conning away every bit of confidence I have in you.

sprityo wrote:

sprityo wrote:Rainbow list

-SNIP-

-Jack*

Ones with an asterisk are ones i didnt check ISOs for.

The fact that you haven't ISOed me is not my objection, nor Epi's.

Epignosis wrote:

sprityo wrote: -Jack* - I take back what i said earlier about jack looking better. My gut is coming back with a reminder that the longer he is in here, the less im gonna want to lynch him. I think if we lynch jack, we would be able to focus more on others since he has been a suspicion of a few people for a decent amount of time now.[/color]

Are you that feeble-minded, meat sack, that you cannot "focus more" on others while he is alive?

You should always trust Nifty more than Nutella.

Nutella could be scum vouching for town Nifty cause she knows lynching Nifty would result in a town flip and get her killed.

Nutella cannot be town vouching for scum Nifty because there's no reason to do that.

Nutella could be scum vouching for scum Nifty cause duh.

"Jack looks better. Therefore, we need to lynch him before he looks too good. Then we can focus on other people."

sprityo wrote:edit from earlier: I didnt see that I-R had claimed Ash, so that means Jack would have to be either Miranda or Samantha (assuming he's telling the truth)

anyone pickup on his clue or whatever that could relate to this?

Or Jack. Jack's a girl.

I don't think we can power confirm anyone else that has claimed. Blocks, misdirects, guides, etc are really hard to see. Upvotes and downvotes could be duplicated by the mafia. Blocks, misdirection, vote removing could all negate Ash's powers if Raven's town, which also means he can claim these things if his power doesn't work.

Linki: You have got to be joking.

So recap:

Adam - ???
Nifty - Anderson, vouched for by Nutella
Dizzy - ???
Epi - Geth, w/ limited reason to believe he does have nk protection
Fred - Joker, confirmed (less potential forging) by Bob's death
Raven - Ash
Jack - romanceable lady (which is not nearly as open ended of a claim as it was at the time)
MP - Legion awesome character concept
Nutella - ???
Sprityo- Tali
SVS - Kelly

Nobody's gonna try to figure out my secret code?

sprityo wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Dizzy

You're asking a lot of questions that have been answered. Glad you're back but you'll be more convincing if you catch up first. You can ISO me for a recent summary I gave MP and start from there if you have to.


@Sprit

You claimed Tali. Nifty claimed Anderson, Fred claimed EDI, MP claimed Legion. I claimed a romanceable lady. Raven hinted something and I didn't catch it. SVS claimed helpful and unhelpful and I narrowed her down to Jacob or someone else but then she claimed and I missed it. Epi claimed Geth.

I think that's it.

How can Fred claim EDI if ColonialBob died night 1... and he flipped as EDI

Meant Joker.

@Dizzy

You're asking a lot of questions that have been answered. Glad you're back but you'll be more convincing if you catch up first. You can ISO me for a recent summary I gave MP and start from there if you have to.


@Sprit

You claimed Tali. Nifty claimed Anderson, Fred claimed EDI, MP claimed Legion. I claimed a romanceable lady. Raven hinted something and I didn't catch it. SVS claimed helpful and unhelpful and I narrowed her down to Jacob or someone else but then she claimed and I missed it. Epi claimed Geth.

I think that's it.

Marmot wrote:Oh, and please point me in the right direction. K thanks.

Hey Marmot.

You bad?

sprityo wrote:In other words, wilgy should not have died.

Can you elaborate?

Fredwood wrote:It's the Qun brah, they're all jerks.

Jack homework:

ISO Raven
ISO Adam
ISO Dizzy to see which scum team she's part of. If she's probably Cerberus, this makes World B more likely.
ISO MP to see if he's likely Cerberus. If so, this makes World A more likely.

But I may just play Dragon Age. I miss my ballin hammer wielding dwarf that's stuck on my shit ex roommate's xbox. My bitchy elf archer chick is okay. Why is Sten never nice to anybody? I guess I could also work on real work.

S~V~S wrote:I choose to call it persistence and tenacity, my friend.

Who should I put my extra vote on tonight, Jack?

If I had your power, I would put the extra vote on Dizzy or Epi. Probably Dizzy.

Let's talk about Epi first because Dizzy relates to this. Epi has claimed Geth. This means he is a) essentially town b) essentially reaper without btsc c) actually reaper d) actually Cerberus or e) actually LMS. I find c) to be unlikely because GFish really did try to get him lynched and he's not Sovereign (unless Silver was forged, which I don't believe he was). I find d) unlikely because he really did get GFish lynched and GFish really did want to get Epi lynched from what I can tell. I think e) is unlikely after LC's flip and because calling extra attention to himself as potentially b,c,d) doesn't help a LMS player. So I'm left with my initial gut conclusion that Epi is the Geth but I don't know who he wins with. Day 1 Epi helped the town and the Reapers by being part of the GFish lynch (I consider myself and Wigly to be the other key parts to the GFish lynch). Day 1 Silver tried to save Epi imo but that doesn't define who Epi wins with. Day 2 Epi was just kinda there but at least he didn't push on me. I think he went after LC, which is still a null read. Day 3 Epi is different. Day 3 Epi starts this secret code thing which he will probably argue was helpful to lynching LC but I still think it was a waste and a distraction. To be helpful, he has to tell us what it means. Instead, it was distracting. He also came out voting for Wigly, who I strongly believe is town and switched to me midday. This is all anti town behavior. So is refusing to explain himself when asked. Acting like he didn't know what we were talking about is just Epi behavior. Additionally, Epi becomes more dangerous as the game goes on because he is a vote. Like in BvR, the town can afford to keep the outed baddie around until the vote matters but eventually, the outed baddie must be gotten rid of. It's possible Epi chose to win with the town. I have seen no evidence of this. Epi's a good dancer and he could use a push towards a noose.

Dizzy hasn't been interested in catching scum, imo. They've floated from lynch train to lynch train, seemingly happy to lynch anybody. I've had Dizzy down as LMS but wasn't too scared of the LMS roles since they are relatively weak. LC's flip and the above reasoning behind Epi being neutral means Dizzy can't be a LMS. This means Dizzy is town or scum. I'm not seeing Phenon town Dizzy. I'm seeing coasting. I'm seeing "tunneling". I'm seeing no gambits. I'm seeing few gifs. I'm seeing no hunting. This leads me to believe Dizzy is mafia. With 8 living town roles and 5 of them identified and 1 living neutral role that is also identified, there are only 3 good guys of all the players I don't know. If I assume you or Nutella or Sprityo or MP are town, that makes Dizzy look even more likely to be mafia. I want mafia gone most of all.

TBF, there's a chance I'd put the extra vote on you. I loved your posts and the end of the day and had noticed the whole "bad LC picking at things" pattern that you had. That's the main reason I changed my vote. However, I still have leftover suspicion on you. Additionally, you and Nutella and Sprityo and MP can't all be town. The chances of even you and MP both being town is low. Yet MP rode to your defense yesterday and you both attacked some players I see as absolutely town. It didn't smell of dishonesty like LC's " " posts regarding TSP, especially MP's posts, but it still worries me. I can see a world where both you and MP are good and I'm just wrong about Nutella or Sprityo. I'm not 100% convinced either of them is town. I can also see a world where MP is town and he's just wrong about you being scum. I can see a world where you and MP are scumbuddies and you just fooled the town into lynching LC instead. I don't really see a world where MP is bad and you are good and he saves you anyway. I could see him doing this in a normal game to gain townie cred but as far as he's been behind this game, he'd have no good way of knowing LC wasn't a townie and that his actions wouldn't just make him look worse. No, a baddie MP lets a goodie SVS hang in this situation. This all said, the idea that you and MP are both good is much more convincing than the idea that Dizzy or Epi is. I have reason to believe you are not a Reaver.

Since I've gotten this far, let's split things into two worlds.

World A: SVS and MP are Cerberus (cause SVS was good with lynching Silver, MP backed off GFish and saved SVS cause they're all buddies)

World B: SVS and MP are town (cause SVS was good with lynching Silver, MP backed off GFish cause he really thought he was good and saved SVS cause he thought she was good)


World A
Town - Jack, TSP, Wigly, Fred, Nifty?, Nutella?, Sprityo?
Reapers - Dizzy
Cerberus - SVS, MP
Neutral - Epi
1 townie among - Raven, Adam

World B
Town - Jack, TSP, Wigly, Fred, Nifty?, MP, SVS
Reapers -
Cerberus -
Neutral - Epi
1 townie among - Dizzy, Raven, Adam, Nutella, Sprityo

In either world, if Nifty flips bad, Nutella is bad. Still think Nifty is good but it's worth noting.




Statistically speaking, I find myself becoming more and more okay with lynching Adam and Raven after looking at these lineups. I still say "Dizzy."

Updated mystery list

DrWilgy =
Fredwood =
nutella = ?
Dyslexicon = ?
Adam = ?
Jackofhearts2005 =
CaptainNifty =
sprityo = ?
Immortal_Raven = ?
MovingPictures07 = ?
TonyStarkPrime =
S~V~S =
Epi =

Epignosis wrote:Yours is not a secret code. If it is, you should try harder to make better secret codes.

Okay. I will try harder.

Epignosis wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

DrWilgy = Hard 3
Fredwood = Hard 2
nutella = Hard 2
Dyslexicon = Soft 2
Adam = Hard 1
Jackofhearts2005 = Hard 1
CaptainNifty = Soft 1
sprityo = Softer 1
Immortal_Raven = Soft 0
MovingPictures07 = Soft 0
TonyStarkPrime = Softer 0
S~V~S = Softest 0
Long Con = Soft -1

This list does not show who is John Shepard; rather, it shows who is the most dangerous should he turn out to be John Shepard.

This list would give an idea regarding whom to kill tonight so that Shepard never reaches his full potential.

Initially, my calculations informed me that DrWilgy was our Shepard and that he had gained a protection- he was the only one with a hard three- and that he was targeted for a kill, and that the kill failed.

But I guess we know better.

Hey, I got a list too. :

DrWilgy =
Fredwood =
nutella =
Dyslexicon =
Adam =
Jackofhearts2005 =
CaptainNifty =
sprityo =
Immortal_Raven =
MovingPictures07 =
TonyStarkPrime =
S~V~S =
Epi =


What does it mean?

Daleks are not in Mass Effect.

I know. It's a secret code. Aren't you going to try to figure out what it means?

Epignosis wrote:

DrWilgy = Hard 3
Fredwood = Hard 2
nutella = Hard 2
Dyslexicon = Soft 2
Adam = Hard 1
Jackofhearts2005 = Hard 1
CaptainNifty = Soft 1
sprityo = Softer 1
Immortal_Raven = Soft 0
MovingPictures07 = Soft 0
TonyStarkPrime = Softer 0
S~V~S = Softest 0
Long Con = Soft -1

This list does not show who is John Shepard; rather, it shows who is the most dangerous should he turn out to be John Shepard.

This list would give an idea regarding whom to kill tonight so that Shepard never reaches his full potential.

Initially, my calculations informed me that DrWilgy was our Shepard and that he had gained a protection- he was the only one with a hard three- and that he was targeted for a kill, and that the kill failed.

But I guess we know better.

Hey, I got a list too. :

DrWilgy =
Fredwood =
nutella =
Dyslexicon =
Adam =
Jackofhearts2005 =
CaptainNifty =
sprityo =
Immortal_Raven =
MovingPictures07 =
TonyStarkPrime =
S~V~S =
Epi =


What does it mean?

Fredwood wrote:If you play ME1, should be on easiest difficulty, it has the worst combat system of all time. Just breeze through it to get the story and interactions with teammates and lore. It's still a very fun game...I remember back in the day beating it on Insanity...anyone who knows how broken enemy biotics were in ME1 should honor my sacrifice.

I've played ME1. I just don't remember much besides "Wrex." "Shepherd." "Skipper."

I actually liked the combat okay but then again, I was a sniper class with Wrex and Ash so I pretty well steamrolled everything except that blue bitch in the middle.

Epignosis wrote:

DrWilgy = Hard 3
Fredwood = Hard 2
nutella = Hard 2
Dyslexicon = Soft 2
Adam = Hard 1
Jackofhearts2005 = Hard 1
CaptainNifty = Soft 1
sprityo = Softer 1
Immortal_Raven = Soft 0
MovingPictures07 = Soft 0
TonyStarkPrime = Softer 0
S~V~S = Softest 0
Long Con = Soft -1

Didn't you vote for Wigly after posting this?

S~V~S wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Uuuuuuugh.

SVS, you better be town. We could so afford to keep LC around.

How do you figure? His role literally says he must be the last man standing to win. Right?

His role also says he has a 60% chance to kill every third night and has no buddies.

I'd have rather lynched any other baddie or neutral.

Why do you think keeping a killer alive is preferable?

Because that role is weak. I could see LC surviving 10 days without killing anyone.

Because a serial killer has half the information an average mafia has.

Because nobody could plan with LC. Nobody could forge for LC, vouch for LC, silence for LC or doctor LC.

Yeah, we needed him dead. He just wasn't a priority. Hence I have not been pushing Dizzy over SVS or LC or Epi. I had Dizzy pegged as LMS. Figured Epi's vote was more dangerous.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Uuuuuuugh.

SVS, you better be town. We could so afford to keep LC around.

How do you figure? His role literally says he must be the last man standing to win. Right?

His role also says he has a 60% chance to kill every third night and has no buddies.

I'd have rather lynched any other baddie or neutral.

Uuuuuuugh.

SVS, you better be town. We could so afford to keep LC around.

Changing my vote to Long Con.

Will discuss more later but I have to drive.

Particularly, reads on Adam, Raven, Dizzy would be useful. Their ISOs should be short.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I know I haven't been super involved this game, but I cannot believe you all act like I haven't done anything and I'm "coasting". I have over 170 posts. Yes, some of them are filled with apologies and not a slew of analytical content which is not ideal, but there is still plenty by which to try and make an assessment of me. S~V~S also has content as well. This is really just dumb to say "all Syndicate players are playing the same" and "MP is coasting". There's content in there. You can analyze them. Give me something to respond to.

SVS has very little content.

All her posts are about how I'm bad. Very little about other players. Very little in the way of details.

I've asked her for this multiple times and she doesn't feel the need to give us any more.

Care to give any reads on other players MP?

@SVS.

Been there done that. I'll do my due diligence on your role.

@LC

It definitely is. When we have ~12 players tomorrow and I know 2 will vote for me and I might not be able to defend myself and my role itself doesn't confirm me (like TSP, Fred, Wigly and Nifty), that becomes a priority. I don't need you or anyone else I expect to be around getting cold feet or "cold feet."

If you're good, I get where you're coming from. Get where I'm coming from. I didn't lead my faction to victory in Phenon, BvR or Unfortunate Events. I might as well have been trying to lose the last Hybridity game. It's not about ego. It's about not derailing the train.

Since your arguement is that SVS and I are both mafia, though, why don't you vote SVS?

You wouldn't be defending your scumbuddy would you, -1?

It just seems like the solution to this almost solved game doesn't sit well with you, LC. I'll ask you again, how many baddies do I have to lynch before you are sure I'm bad, too? It's about to be three. I make it though the night and I'm certain it will be four.

Long Con wrote:The thing is, Jack, I don't think S~V~S is prone to tunnelling like this without good reason. This assuredness in her suspicion of you smells like something more.

Back to that pesky missing Night 1 kill... her behaviour toward you matches what I believe we'd see from her if her Mafia team tried and failed to kill you.

If you say so, brah.

Thought the mafia went after Epi due to their missed kill.

Yeah, most Realmsers will like you to claim.

I'm a bit of an outlier in that I don't like to claim (except sometimes in Hybridity) unless I think it will keep me from getting lynched/vigged and roleclaims don't generally move the needle much for me on their own.

Long Con wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Also, what do we all think of claiming in general this game? I'm not sure I want to claim my role, but I'm curious what you all think as to whether it's better to get all that stuff out there, or it depends, or what.

Can you think of a reason, beyond your ingrained belief in a no-infodrop ethical system, not to claim if you are going to be lynched?

And alternatively (assuming you are town), do you think the extent your roleclaim will make people trust you more (if at all) outweighs the usefulness of keeping your power secret from the mafia (if that is useful at all).

Keep in mind the scum have safeclaims per Epi, who told us his.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Meanwhile can someone explain this POE floating around for me?

TSP is Shepherd (he hinted at this awhile back), who has to be in the game and Wigly is his mason.

After CBob died, Fred claimed to be his mason, who iirc, has to be in the game if Bob's character is.

I am clearly town.

Nutella has confirmed Nifty's power claim, which is not able to be duplicated by scum roles.

So we're looking at 3 99% confirmed townies and another 2 90% confirmed townies. There are 11 townies in the setup and 3 of them are dead. That leaves 8 town roles with 5 likely confirmed ones.

So between you, LC, Nut, SVS, Sprityo, Adam, Dizzy and Raven, there are probably 3 townies, 4 baddies and 1 neutral. (And of course Epi is neutral.) We're looking for who is bad based on process of elimination. Some of these players (SVS, Dizzy) look really bad. Some of them (Nut, Sprityo) look pretty good. Some of them (you, Raven, Adam) look pretty quiet. Then there's LC.

And now you're caught up.

Long Con wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@LC

I had Sprityo down as my last townie and it looks like Fred is thinking the same thing.

Oh, well that's different that the doubt you were putting out back here. You used to think it was unlikely that a Civ would reverse-track themselves because it's generally considered a bad play, and that sprit might be a Mafia role that tracked Raven. What happened to change your mind about that?

You're worrying me a lot, though. Stop me if you've heard this one. There's strong evidence that a player is town and it turns the game around if everyone buys it. The town is on their way to lynching some scum. A mafia member plays dumb and acts like they can't decide, hoping someone will give them a reason not to trust the townie so they don't have to vote out a baddie.

Ever heard that story?

I'm sorry, what? If you want to ask me something, ask me. I'm not interested in smarmy parables.

And how did you get included in the Confirmed Town group? Did I miss your role claim and the proof of it, or is it just because you voted for two baddies and you never bus a teammate?

RE:Sprityo

His info DOESN'T prove anything and that hasn't changed. I don't view Sprityo as confirmed town. If I have to pick out who is town and who is not (and I do. It is a compulsion.) I put Sprityo as a tentative townie.

I'm not really asking. I'm saying I've put you on the town list for awhile but you're worrying me.

Cause I'm a baddie catching machine. I'll lay out my reasoning for how everyone should know I am neither a Reaper nor a Cerberus agent at the end of the night. Force the mafia to decide if they want to try that silence and lynch play on me again or just shoot me before they see what I have to say or else hold off and risk missing their action. Normally, I'd just let it ride but the chances of me getting two votes and a silencing going into tomorrow is high and I'm not gonna risk getting lynched over keeping my cards too close to the vest.