The Syndicate

Nice.

New circle of trust is Nifty and Sprityo.

That's probably about it for ISOs from me today.

I'm gonna do actually work while working from home and watch 13 Reasons Why with my wife.

Happy hunting.

Adam's out of the way and I don't think there's much that could convince me to switch my vote short of some amazing town play by Marmot.

Gonna finish up the Sprityo ISO I started here: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 20#p358963

Now, in that link, you'll find that I'm not that hard on Sprityo. Like I note a lot of town behavior even though I went into it look for baddie clues.

I'll just let the rest of the ISO speak for itself.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:25 am looks at who is voting dyslexicon

Hmm.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:44 am A quick GTH, I totally just didn't do anything during our extended night phase like I wanted to do


But without thinking, I would okay lynching (not wanting to lynching but not opposed to lynching)

Adam
Epignosis
nutella (less so since I feel I haven't looked at Nutella really at all this game)

I'll give a proper once over of everyone....at some point I'm feeling motivated

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:18 pm Something about why theres 4 votes on dyslexicon doesnt sit right with my gut...

im going to do an ISO of Dizzy real quick to either disprove or approve my gut.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 6:33 pm @Dyslexicon, what was your reasoning for voting MP earlier? i dont believe im seeing it.

Also:

Dyslexicon wrote:People I would invite to my birthday party:
Fred - Potty mouthed friend.
Nut - Hazelnut spread friend.
LC - I will yolo this read to my grave.____________Long Con - posts - Aria T'Loak - Lynched on Day 4
Wilgy - Yaaaas, bruh.____________DrWilgy - posts - Liara T'Soni - Killed on Night 4

People I would go for long walks with (but maybe bring a knife in my back pocket just in case)
SVS - Tinks thoughty thoughts.
Adam - Makes me sane.
Nifty - Has the grrrs.
MP - Because I thought so D1.

People I want to get to know better:
Dom - Is like a mix of Epi and Llama and it's fun.____________Dom - posts - Garrus Vakarian - Killed on Night 2
Sprit - Is standing on the outside looking in.

People I'm looking at while lifting one eyebrow:
TSP - Says some weird things I don't follow.____________TonyStarkPrime - posts - Commander Shepard - Killed on Night 4
Raven - I've kind of forgotten the concrete reasons, so let's call it gut. (Actually the reasons are a bit silly).

People I will throw rocks at:
Silver - Doesn't feel like he did to me last game. Lack of scum hunting?____________Silver Lantern - posts - Sovereign - Lynched on Day 3
Jack - I don't feel like explaining this in detail. I think "not finding his footing" like Adam said is a good analogy. Many words, much mental gymnastics, which can go on forever, but I can see through it. His pokes on me is a placeholder, as it is with Nut.

Oh, and that guy:
Epi - Hi.

How would you change this list now, if at all?

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:03 pm Rainbow list


-Fredwood* - I still believe fredwood is playing very town aside from his joker claim which he could only fake if ColBob was forged (i highly doubt this though)
-nutella - little content, some waffling, but good stuff being put out. Wish i could hear more from nutella
-SVS - SVS is odd, my gut is telling my civ, and yet i dont see much outside of jack discourse.
MP - lot of enthusiasm early, but it's slowed down, I feel like a lot of the past couple of day's content has been MP asking why he is under suspicion when really no one has even voted for him? He mentions being lumped with SVS a lot and not liking it. MP said Day 3 he considers Adam to be a possible for teammate to gfish (who was mafia)
-Nifty - Similar to Adam, but less alignment indicative. I dont really have anything to say except i dont think Nifty is bad
-Dizzy - I'm not seeing a lot of content that's helping the game.
-Epi* - Why is he still here? I guess we can keep him around a little longer....
-Adam - adam had a slow start, with a good chunk of his ISO being in Day 2. What REALLY got my goat with him was....in a two mafia game. Why is he only asking/referencing the Cerberus Mafia team? Like in his entire ISO you can find the word "reaper" 9 times, only once being said by him, the rest in quotes... The more i think about this....the less i like it. One last thing to top the cake, Dom made a case for why Adam was Cerberus on Night 2. Who died Night 2? It was Dom. In fact i believe Dom would've pushed this idea further had he not died.
-Immortal_Raven - Im sketchy on his claim still. not a lot of content to work off of, and they way he tries to play off how i reversed tracked myself gives me the heeby jeebies.
-Jack* - I take back what i said earlier about jack looking better. My gut is coming back with a reminder that the longer he is in here, the less im gonna want to lynch him. I think if we lynch jack, we would be able to focus more on others since he has been a suspicion of a few people for a decent amount of time now.

Ones with an asterisk are ones i didnt check ISOs for.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:44 pm in fact

Vote: Jack

What was the question we asked yesterday? "Why should we NOT lynch jack?"

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:05 pm *sigh* yknow as much as i want to do this

i dont

So that's how im gonna leave it

Jack is not my priority right now. But he's the itch that wont go away.

That just begs the question however, where do our OTHER priorities reside? I dont want us to be stuck on the issue of Jack, but it's day 5, so if it come down to it, i guess then everyone will have to be questioning who is who.

And on that note, im going to be voting Immortal_Raven until he answer's my question.

As i see it, Immortal_Raven is suspect to be Reaper, and I suspect Adam/Marmot to be Cerberus

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:42 am I'm still not seeing eye to eye on why you all vote Dyslexicon, I'm sticking to my guns on this one

VOTE JACKOFHEARTS

Yuck, right? Good to know my Sprityo suspicion wasn't out of thin air. I also left out several posts where Sprityo asks where player that is not voting Dizzy is or asks players for opinions on others, which wouldn't be so bad on it's own except it all stinks of trying to grab at any reason not to lynch Dizzy, which is really weird coming from someone with a null read on Dizzy.

After Dizzy flipped Reaper, Sprityo says he didn't think Dizzy was town:

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:51 pm I never thought dizzy was town, i had them in a null spot, right above the three people i suspected most

It was a position i was not against or for, but wouldve rather gotten someone else.


Later,
Once CaptainNifty and I had this exchange:

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:00 pm

CaptainNifty wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:07 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:42 am I'm still not seeing eye to eye on why you all vote Dyslexicon, I'm sticking to my guns on this one

VOTE JACKOFHEARTS

It's mostly about DOE, and Dyslexicon is a better choice than you or SVS as far as I'm concerned. Also, Dyslexicon comes onto the thread after being relatively quiet for a while, and starts accusing people who have been all but cleared.

that.....makes sense actually.

alright then.

It started to make more sense and i felt better about the lynch going through (besides the obvious fact that i was getting nowhere pushing my views)


Jack, i cant claim to be "the best player on HCRealms" like you can (well mostly because i've never played there, but this is just an example), the way you've played this whole game has rubbed me the wrong way. Which i know i mentioned earlier as well. Maybe this is due to me never having really played with you? Who knows. Perhaps i made myself too tunnel-sighted earlier and that really was my main goal was to get the distraction out of my face.

And when I point out that he did say he thought Dizzy was town early on, he says he can't remember why.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:09 am I can't recall why I rated Dyslexicon a high town read, likely me internally remembering how they played in phenon early on and relating it as similar

The next thing, I wasn't looking at gfish as the worst option, I was looking at him im comparison to the other 3 people that wilgy had asked me to examine

In summary,

Why is Sprityo town:
He is almost entirely consistent. He either doesn't change his mind or I can see his progression when he does. There's only one single inconsistency in all of his posts, which is a high bar. He isn't afraid to take unpopular stances. He answers questions and asks questions.

Why is Sprityo bad:
He makes poor uses of his reverse track, which is an INCREDIBLY powerful townie tool. He manages to use it in such a way that he may not have any tracking related powers at all. I feel like the least you can do with a RT is try to watch a town read's back or self confirm. Sprityo has done neither. (Note: Strategy Jack disagrees with is not necessarily scum indicative. I recently said I don't think it is for players like GFish and Skullbro, who often try things I would not. I do think it is for players like CBob and LC, who have similar strategic tendencies to mine.)

He specifically noted that Silver was lynched because of HCRealms players calling out his meta. This should have convinced him that Jack was not a Reaper and possibly done so for some other Realmsers. However, once Dizzy was lynched, Sprityo said he now trusted that Jack was not a Reaper. If Sprityo specifically noted that Silver was lynched due to HCRealms meta, why did he not know that Jack was the HCRealms player pushing this theory?

Why is Sprityo specifically Cerberus:
I have no reason to believe Sprityo is specifically Cerberus.

Why is Sprityo specifically Reaper:
Sprityo spent a LOT of time indirectly trying to convince us not to lynch Dizzy even though every time he's asked to actually weigh in on Dizzy, he calls her a null read, can't think of a reason he he thought she was town and denies he ever called her town.

Sprityo read LC and Dizzy based off their performances in Phenon, meaning he read Dizzy as good and LC as bad. Sprityo did not read Silver Lantern based off his performance in Phenon, even though lots of players were saying that they saw a large discrepancy between supertown Silver in Phenon and superbad Silver in this game.




At this point, if Adam flips Reaper, I believe Sprityo to be town. If Adam flips Cerberus or town, I believe Sprityo to be Reaper.

I still think Adam is the right lynch choice for two reasons:
1) The Cerberus mafia is bigger and we don't have much in the way of leads on them outside Adam. Therefore, a Cerberus lynch is more valuable and Adam is more likely to be Cerberus
2) There is only one Reaper left and if Adam is that Reaper, it will prevent us from mislynching Sprityo.

I finished my Sprityo ISO but I copy pasted some stuff out of order.

vote adam


Linki @Nifty

Why do you think SVS voting for herself is town indicative?

I'm assuming you think her tunneling on me is town indicative because her suspicion feels legit. You think she really thinks I'm bad. We're both not Reapers. Therefore, if SVS really and truly thinks I'm bad, she's hunting for Cerberus and if she's really and truly hunting for Cerberus, she must be town?

Is that correct?

EBWOP

Living players Adam has thrown a little shade at: Raven, Nifty, Jack, SVS, MP, Sprityo
Living players Adam has thrown shade at in a way where I'm pretty sure he's not distancing: SVS, MP
Living players he's not really mentioned: Nutella

Adam's self defense. Not very convincing.

Adam wrote: ↑Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:01 am

Adam wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:

Adam wrote:

DrWilgy wrote: How does that work in this environment?

I'm not entirely sure yet. That's really the fun of a crossover game, isn't it?

So, now instead of explaining the wagon with the most votes as a pressure, how about you tell me what you think of Gfish and Nifty? How do you feel about them being the only 2 voting with you?

They're both playing as I expect them to. Nifty's gotten a lot better recently with his tells and behaving consistently no matter his alignment. I started off reading him a little on the scum side, but I don't know if that's recency bias or not. Gfish has been playing loud, but nothing he's done so far is inconsistent with how he would play as town. He also tends to intentionally play as a scum-seeming townie, which provides him with cover when he's bad.

This role block of Epi tells me: Someone definitely role blocked (or attempted to role block) Epi

I see multiple scenarios for how gfish would act
1) If gfish was a town RB, I would expect him to call out Epi, especially if it was a one-shot RB
2) If gfish was mafia in a game with only one mafia, I don't think he would out the target of his RB because he knows it would be town
3) In this game with two mafias, and gfish was on one of the two mafias and thought he stopped the opposing mafia's kill with a RB, he would definitely fight full force to get that player lynched and be a successful scum hunter.

If in the end gfish had not backed off of Epi, I think he would be mafia, but based on how easily he let it go once Epi claimed, my inclination is that gfish is town.

This first post took place after Epi had (hint)claimed town and before he claimed Geth. It was an analysis made on the belief that Epignosis was town.

Adam wrote:Fred is taking the lead as confirmed town and I like it.

Epi being non-town makes me suspect gfish a little more. Scum gfish only makes the blocked kill gambit if he thinks he's caught other scum.

I like Epi's gambit. Those pushing for his lynch now are most likely Cerberus, I'm thinking. Easy non-mafia lynch.

Dom seems extraordinarily focused on Jack. Wilgy seems almost as focused on gfish. I feel like gfish and Jack haven't interacted as much as on Day 2 as on Day 1. Possibly teammates? I could definitely see a mafia with Jack and gfish going for cbob night 1.
Not sure how I feel about Dom. Wilgy seems townish to me. I also like S~V~S's play so far.

I like that TSP is getting in the game a bit. I haven't seen much from sprityo but what I'm seen feels civ. Dyslexicon seems less involved today than yesterday. nutella I'm still unsure about. I also haven't seen mp much today.

I don't like that Silver hasn't contributed much of anything so far. I like Fred's analysis of that situation.

This second post is after Epi revealed as Geth. The fact that the player gfish was gunning for was non-town made it far more likely in my eyes that gfish's mafia discovered Epi was not town and wanted to lynch him.

If I were gfish's Cerberus teammate, I would not have so easily backed off Epi in the first place if I thought he was lying about being town, and I would have jumped right back onto Epi's train when it turned out he was Geth. Most of the day was spent with the largest trains on Jack and Epignosis, and it would have been really easy and justified for me to park on the Epi train and stay there, but I never did. If I was Cerberus, I would absolutely want Geth gone and pushing for it. It's such an easy case to make as Cerberus. Gfish's teammates are almost assuredly voting for Epignosis after he came out as Geth.

Adam wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:40 am

MovingPictures07 wrote:Interactive analysis of gfishfunk and Adam

*SNIP*

I was the first one to suggest that gfish was scum who had caught other scum with his roleblock gambit. I suggested it as a possibility when I thought Epi was town. After Epi made his dramatic reveal, I pointed out that gfish was likely scum who knew Epi was not town and was trying to lynch him.

Why would I bring that idea to the thread if gfish was my teammate?

And again, if I was Cerberus, why was I not pushing for the Epi lynch after he came out as Geth? Epignosis was pretty obviously the optimal Cerebrus lynch yesterday, and it would not have been hard at all to join that train at any point. And I guarantee you that gfish's teammates were on the Epi train after he revealed himself as Geth.

I also am fairly confident that the mods wouldn't create mafias that were all from one site in a crossover game. I would bet dollars to donuts that gfish had a Syndicateer for a teammate. The third teammate could be either HCR or Syndicate.

Adam indicates he believes there is a Syndicate player on the Cerberus team. I think this is the second time he says it. Strikes me as odd but not necessarily bad.

Votes Wigly, not liking his stealth voting. Removes the vote when Wigly clarifies he voted Adam cause his name begins with an A, making him at the top of the poll.

Follows Fred on a "Sprityo is a Reaper" hunch. I'll have to go back and check for that. Cause I thought Sprityo was a Reaper based on yesterday only (when Dizzy was lynched) but after reading his ISO prior to that, I didn't get that impression.

Points towards Epi voter a couple times. Theory is that GFish's buddies would want to push a lynch on the Geth. That's a lot of players, though, so MP asks Adam to narrow it down. Like, who does he think is sincere and who does he think is not? Adam is like "Lolwut?" and I guess MP didn't follow up cause that's the end of it.

Adam ghosts for the rest of the day before voting Silver without much comment on the Silver train. Here's his only Silver comment, basically, right before his vote.

Adam wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:42 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote:Can someone point me to the case on Silver Lantern?

It's two things.

1) Meta, HCR folk think Silver fits mafia Silver meta more than town Silver meta
2) He hasn't done much other than defend himself against the meta accusations.

Less than 20 minutes left.

Silver is lynched and comes up robit.

Adam wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:05 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Adam has never been part of the "never trust Jack" club.

LOL that's just because I balked at the silly hats they have to wear.

Yea, I haven't voted for you at any point because I'm not really getting the scum vibe from you. I can't say I've been getting the strong town vibe from you either yet. I still haven't figured out what to make of you.

This is after his up and down a bit on me early on, RE:Footing.

Says he thinks my GFish switch was self preservation, which is not true but it's an understandable thought process.

Last couple posts before Adam disappears:

Adam wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:31 pm I feel like movingpictures and SVS voting for themselves is them pretty much giving up and admitting to being mafia. Am I wrong about this? Why are you voting for yourselves?

Adam wrote: ↑Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:29 am I am currently thinking MP and Dizzy should be the next two lynches. Someone feel free to contradict me.

Soooooooo here's where I'm at on Adam.

He's almost exclusively focused on the Cerberus faction, which would normally make me think he's a Reaper. On both GFish and Silver, he votes at the last second without a lot of reasoning for doing so. He acknowledges the cases but doesn't take a stance until he actually votes. Doesn't really take a stance even after he votes. Lot of the suspicion on Adam comes from this happening with GFish but in the ISO, I find him doing this with Silver to be just as convincing he is Reaper as the former argument is that he is Cerberus. Which is annoying. Add in what Nifty said about replacing in late. Why replace in on Day 5 if you don't intend to catch up? A summary has been given. Yet no effort has. Is Marmot giving up so as not to spew his teammates?

Living players Adam has thrown a little shade at: Raven, Nifty, Jack
Living players Adam has thrown a lot of shade at, to the point where he's not distancing: SVS, MP
Living players he's not really mentioned: Sprityo, Nutella

Why do you think SVS is a civ?

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:49 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:51 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:37 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:13 am @Sprityo

I can get on board with seeing Dizzy as similar to Phenon and thus good. I got a similar early game vibe from her as well.

@Marmot

To clarify, ISO me just to find my summary. Then read all posts (not my ISO) going forward. The few subjective things in that summary are called out by other players after that post.





I'll try to do my homework later.

I see that you think I replaced MP. Does that make a difference to you?

Not really. You haven't said much and INH hasn't said anything at all. Who replaced who doesn't change much for me.

Of course it does. If MP said a thing that you didn't like, why would you look at me for it?

I'm not looking at you at all until you do something. That's not an insult. I just don't think there's a lot of alignment indicative stuff in your posts so far. You're welcome to change that.

I'm looking at Adam and will make sure I'm voting for his actual replacement if I determine he's the one I should vote for.

@Nifty

Chances are, you get shot tonight and the night phase is short.

Care to weigh in on any of the non Adam related thoughts and theories floating about that you haven't yet? (Appreciate your post on late game replacements btw.)

Assume no further posts and Adam gets lynched 3 (Sprit, Nut, Nifty) to 1 (SVS) with the rest of us still not voting. Adam flips Cerberus, what does that tell you? Adam flips town, what does that tell you? Adam flips an obvious forged role (like Shepherd), what does that tell you?

I'll answer my own three questions in a bit. Other homework is finish Adam and Sprit ISOs and SVS. Leaving Nutella, Raven, MP be for now in roughly that order due to time constraints.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:18 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:14 pm Wait, no. Reapers had the kill and only one member left. Nobody should be silenced unless a Reaper autopsy was forged.

Why are you so sure? Matriarch Benizia is the silencer and that role is not dead.

Baddie on a Team With A Seemer 101: make everyone think the false flip has been used already.

Imma kick it old school and vote for Jack. I care about being right, not about how I look.

*VOTING JACK O'H

Because the silencer would have had to make the kill. So she couldn't silence anybody.

/annoyed

I already explained why the doggies wouldn't fake a Reaper autopsy.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:37 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:13 am @Sprityo

I can get on board with seeing Dizzy as similar to Phenon and thus good. I got a similar early game vibe from her as well.

@Marmot

To clarify, ISO me just to find my summary. Then read all posts (not my ISO) going forward. The few subjective things in that summary are called out by other players after that post.





I'll try to do my homework later.

I see that you think I replaced MP. Does that make a difference to you?

Not really. You haven't said much and INH hasn't said anything at all. Who replaced who doesn't change much for me.

Wait, no. Reapers had the kill and only one member left. Nobody should be silenced unless a Reaper autopsy was forged.

We got another 24 hours, yeah.

Wanna finish up my Adam ISO. Give Marmot/Epi/INH a chance to speak.

Possible Epi is silenced?

But the bullet on the Adam ISO (you have to use the front page links).

Interacts early with both GFish and Dizzy. Mostly null read for me. Adam is #neverscared imo. Especially as town? Maybe. Haven't played with him enough lately.

His first rainbow is pretty funny in a hindsighty way. Has GFish, CBob pegged as town. Says Llama, Fred, LC, Nifty, Silver, Wigly bad. Wigly's style does rub some Realmsers badly (I like it, though.)

Gets a little annoyed with GFish for "spamming". Iirc, some people didn't like that post but I don't mind it. Calls CBob his top town read.

Throws down a vote for Llama, noting that Llama is suspicious, Llama is lynchable and some people are avoiding a Llama/LC tiff, which he takes to mean one is bad.

I half jokingly ask Silver if he throws fits when he's scum. Adam says Silver throws fits like every other game.

GFish says either me, Nifty or Adam is 90% mafia cause our top town reads were mentioned by someone else first. Bad logic. Adam retorts that he gave his reads before GFish did, meaning GFish copied him, not the other way around.

Adam weighs in on Rainbowgate. "Why would he even lie about that?"

Adam weighs in on the GFish/Epi gambit pileup. Votes Epi. Thinks people are defending Epi cause they're scumbuddies.

There's some further defense of GFish's actions as "SOP" and calls the GFish gambit "pressure voting."

Spends quite a bit of time as communication facilitator. Points out misunderstandings, promotes the idea of culture clash.

Removes vote from Epi. Votes Raven. Explanation:

Adam wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:47 pm

DrWilgy wrote:

Adam wrote:

DrWilgy wrote: How does that work in this environment?

I'm not entirely sure yet. That's really the fun of a crossover game, isn't it?

So, now instead of explaining the wagon with the most votes as a pressure, how about you tell me what you think of Gfish and Nifty? How do you feel about them being the only 2 voting with you?

They're both playing as I expect them to. Nifty's gotten a lot better recently with his tells and behaving consistently no matter his alignment. I started off reading him a little on the scum side, but I don't know if that's recency bias or not. Gfish has been playing loud, but nothing he's done so far is inconsistent with how he would play as town. He also tends to intentionally play as a scum-seeming townie, which provides him with cover when he's bad.

This role block of Epi tells me: Someone definitely role blocked (or attempted to role block) Epi

I see multiple scenarios for how gfish would act
1) If gfish was a town RB, I would expect him to call out Epi, especially if it was a one-shot RB
2) If gfish was mafia in a game with only one mafia, I don't think he would out the target of his RB because he knows it would be town
3) In this game with two mafias, and gfish was on one of the two mafias and thought he stopped the opposing mafia's kill with a RB, he would definitely fight full force to get that player lynched and be a successful scum hunter.

If in the end gfish had not backed off of Epi, I think he would be mafia, but based on how easily he let it go once Epi claimed, my inclination is that gfish is town.

Adam's next rainbowish post is much more accurate.
Says GFish, Silver, Dizzy, Jack look worse.
Says SVS, Wigly, Fred, Sprityo look better.

His basic point on GFish is that GFish was really hunting. Either he's bad and looking for the other bad guy team or he's good and looking for all bad guys. Epi being neutral makes GFish look worse to Adam.

Says I lack footing. When I question him about may lack of footing (citing several town and scum reads I have), he refers to my back and forth with Dom as nonproductive. Well no shit but that's still a misrepresentation. I also ask him what specific SVS posts he likes. He doesn't say.

Votes GFish as his last post of the day.



Finish this later.

@Sprit

Okay.

Where I'm coming from is the Realms, for all its crutchy power/claim reliance, got good at evaluating power/claim stuff.

Phenon was very similar to the average Realms setup. In Phenon, I thought Golden was bad because he used his watcher/RT power poorly. And he was bad.

Perhaps that's broken clock logic, though.

Oh! I had a thought.

The robots killed Fredwood last night. In my opinion, that was the ideal choice and was most likely intentional.

This makes it unlikely INH or MM is the last Reaper. This is especially true if Sprityo is claiming to have misdirected INH. Add Nifty, SVS, Epi and myself to the list and the last Reaper should be Raven, Nutella or Sprityo.

Agree? Disagree?

That said, a Cerberus lynch is probably ideal today.




@Raven

But why do you think Sprityo has information on you at all? If I told you I copped you as town, would you think I was the cop? Would you rule out the idea that I just "confirmed" what you said so as not to narrow down the lynch possibilities to you and me?

Don't mistake me not following your train of thought as me waving a "lynch Sprityo" flag. This is about understanding your line of thinking.




@Nifty

I agree that was a bad pick. Nobody is better than a random target. I also think the self reverse track is a bad move. But is that alignment indicative?


@Sprityo

My understanding is that your homesite plays with setups with lots of powers. What's your general strategy with some common powers you see on your homesite?

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:34 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:24 am Updated rainbow.

Jack
Nifty
...
Nutella?
Raven?


Bleh.



How about "who is not Reaper?"
SVS, Nifty

"Who is not Cerberus?"
Need homework. We've got nothing on this faction for 4 days.

How about "who is paired?"
If Sprityo is bad, so is Raven
If SVS is bad, so is MP/MM

Bleh.

Who is not paired?
Nutella and SVS


None of these answers are long enough for a POE lynch.

Do you think nutella would be paired with Nifty or not paired?

If Nifty is bad, Nutella is bad but I don't think Nifty is bad.

Nutella flipping bad would not impact my Nifty read much.

Updated rainbow.

Jack
Nifty
...
Nutella?
Raven?


Bleh.



How about "who is not Reaper?"
SVS, Nifty

"Who is not Cerberus?"
Need homework. We've got nothing on this faction for 4 days.

How about "who is paired?"
If Sprityo is bad, so is Raven
If SVS is bad, so is MP/MM

Bleh.

Who is not paired?
Nutella and SVS


None of these answers are long enough for a POE lynch.

I have Adam as a rough null. Was borderline missing when the game started to come together and Marmot hasn't said much.

A POE Adam lynch on Day 6 would have sounded great to Day 4/5 me. My very likely town pool has been reduced to Nifty. My very likely bad pool has been reduced to....I'm going to very tentatively say "nobody."

So I'll try to get to my homework but with three votes already on Adam, I'd like some stronger reasoning.

@Epi

I need a rainbow or secret code from you. You know why.

I'd also love to hear everyone's general strategic thoughts about dealing with late game replacements. INH and Marmot are not going to have consistent reads with Adam and MP. They won't be able to clarify earlier posts. They might not have confident reads for awhile.

Outside of this game, what do you do about players like that?

Part of (certainly not all of) why Sloonei's mafia beat my town in last year's champs game was I didn't know what to do with players who weren't firing on all cylinders. We lynched a mafia member with no content but it was a total crapshoot. We lynched a townie and almost lynched another for not being clear on reads, not weighing in on much, not being consistent/helpful but those players were floundering because they were behind. Looking back, I still see the votes I did and did not place on these players as 100% guesses and I'm not sure what I could have done differently on that front. But I bet there was something.

So what's your SOP for that?

@Sprityo

I can get on board with seeing Dizzy as similar to Phenon and thus good. I got a similar early game vibe from her as well.

@Marmot

To clarify, ISO me just to find my summary. Then read all posts (not my ISO) going forward. The few subjective things in that summary are called out by other players after that post.





I'll try to do my homework later.

@Marmot

ISO me. Search for @MP or maybe just MP.

I basically gave him a good summary. From there, you can read a few pages and be caught up.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:03 pm One last thing before sleepy time

My results for reverse tracking/watching JoH on night one was that no one (except myself of course) visited him.

So why are you so sure about you being targeted on night 1?

Was mostly joking.

In the last completed game I played in on HCRealms, I got triple blocked on night 1.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:15 pm Okay so I'm brief, just having caught up on my phone. The lynch for jack has talk in the start of today and then sorta declined in discussion with a Epi stealing center stage. SVS's logic , re: the color codes, is plausible and is much more acceptable than the whole "Epi was roleblocked + no nightkill = scum" albeit I'm not a huge fan of Eli's response to situation, it seems very...odd, or forced nonchalant.

As for yesterday, LC, I've removed suspicion from you for now, I've liked your contributions so far today. Also saw Dom just put some stuff. It seems in accordance to what Dom will say to someone so it doesn't really say anything to me about him.

As far as some of the HCR guys, I'm still not fully decided on my opinions on really any of them yet. Still trying to wrap my head around Gfish since I've been seeing him both posting and talked about in between the Epignosis debacle

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:32 pm @DrWilgy, I'm heading out to dinner, I'll answer as soon as I return

But off the top of my head without going back to check I believe you to be pretty town, with nifty and gfish as null or slight town, and Adam as null/slight scum.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:04 pm

DrWilgy wrote:Sprit, I need thoughts on me, the 3 who voted epi (Nifty, Gfish, and Adam) right now.

Alright so-

Dr.Wilgy: Among his content, we have a typical DrWilgy day 0 with jokes and such. Moves into question asking with a decent half of his content focussed on Gfish. All his questions though seem appropriate with no malice behind them. I believe him to be working as a town should, trying to piece together either the whole puzzle, or figuring out where a piece fits in. He's taken the role of "Towny in the Spotlight" i want to say due to MP not being around to blow up the thread. Dr.Wilgy is confident one of Adam, Gfish, or Nifty is bad, however Adam and Nifty havent really been a focus of his as far as i can tell by looking through his ISO. Do you think that will bias your opinion at all Wilgy?

Moving on-

Gfish: So starting off, lots of mechanics talk and comparisons/recollections to past experiences. Has a small read list. Lists MP, Llama, LC, and Raven as his slightly less town reads. Most players are completely null as well as almost entirely consisting of Syndicate members, which is reasonable. He is able to make a better read over his familiar players as well as the people that are most apparent to him. I can understand that. Back to more mechanics talk. It's also worth noting he likes to switch his vote around a lot. Eventually ends day one by leaving his vote on llama. His day one performance overall didnt really make me like him as a town player at all, if anything it was a lot of content i personally cant really use. Only thing usable would be his actions themselves. Moving into day 2 now, night 1 posts did not happen, move immediately into a roleclaim and accusation of Epignosis based on Gfish's own knowledge of his role and the game information provided. This ends up being the real highlight conversation of the first 12 hours or so. The latter half of this time has been pursuing Epi. So after reading all this i can say i maintain what ive said about Gfish just now in what i thought about his day 1, he is trying to "scumhunt" but he is doing in a way i dont exactly agree with. Sorta beating around the bush.

Adam: Nothing especially note worthy up until day 2 except for his vote on llama. saying it fell to llama according to his "diagram." something about looking between LC and llama and deciding llama was the better choice. Day 2 has some more enlightening posts that make me feel good about Adam, i definetly look forward to seeing what he puts out in the coming days. But his initial voting for epignosis today was reasonable and his defense on why he thinks Gfish is probably town is believable from my perspective.

Nifty: Comes into thread Day 1, immediately mentions he doesnt like llama's style. (yea i get that ) Off the top of my head Day 1 i felt pretty good about CaptainNifty, and looking at his ISO, I can say im more inclined to believe him to be town over Adam and Gfish. Gfish was suspicious of him Day 1 (i think) but im not seeing any suspicious activity. CaptainNifty, for the most part, has provided a well structured response to quotes as well as provide a straightforward answer about what he thinks about multiple people and situations.


@DrWilgy, so if i had to rank in order of best looking to worst i would say DrWilgy, CaptainNifty, Adam, Gfish.

But there are currently bigger fish to fry in my opinion instead of Gfish.

^Posts from Day Two regarding GFish vs Jack

This was reinterpreted by me as "I suspect GFish but will vote for Jack for vague reasons."

Perhaps an unfair statement but at any rate, these are the posts I'm talking about.

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:52 pm Alright im caught up first thing off the top of my head

JOH: GTH if you had to choose between saving DrWilgy, MP, or Gfish, who would you pick and why?


Personally in my mind, i have these three players in this stagnant pool where i cant pair them together at all. JOH ive seen recently has taken sides with DrWilgy so i want to know his response to this.


The reason i am currently voting LC is based off his performance in Phenon Mafia (yes i paid attention a little bit ), as of current i have a half meta, have gut read on LC. But i'll wave it off to meta due to it being only Day 1, which is considered a huge meta analysis day for a lot of people. LC's non-chalant, sorta playful (I cant think of a proper synonym) attitude today has left me believing he is up to his mafia aligned tricks again.

I will also go ahead and put out ill be doing more watching and digesting than regurgitating my thoughts as they come. (unless it's a funny comment, than ill probably immediately quote it). I have a habit of talking my way into a huge hole early game since i have to backing to anything and am atrocious at counter-arguing during these crucial setup days. I digress.

My current people i believe to be pretty top tier town are Llama and Dyslexicon.


EBWOP: also Epi is being real jokesy so that pings me little. But ill let it slide for now

^This post, Sprit. Very early from you. Why did you think Dizzy was town at this point?

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Apr 03, 2017 6:52 pm Alright im caught up first thing off the top of my head

JOH: GTH if you had to choose between saving DrWilgy, MP, or Gfish, who would you pick and why?


Personally in my mind, i have these three players in this stagnant pool where i cant pair them together at all. JOH ive seen recently has taken sides with DrWilgy so i want to know his response to this.


The reason i am currently voting LC is based off his performance in Phenon Mafia (yes i paid attention a little bit ), as of current i have a half meta, have gut read on LC. But i'll wave it off to meta due to it being only Day 1, which is considered a huge meta analysis day for a lot of people. LC's non-chalant, sorta playful (I cant think of a proper synonym) attitude today has left me believing he is up to his mafia aligned tricks again.

I will also go ahead and put out ill be doing more watching and digesting than regurgitating my thoughts as they come. (unless it's a funny comment, than ill probably immediately quote it). I have a habit of talking my way into a huge hole early game since i have to backing to anything and am atrocious at counter-arguing during these crucial setup days. I digress.

My current people i believe to be pretty top tier town are Llama and Dyslexicon.


EBWOP: also Epi is being real jokesy so that pings me little. But ill let it slide for now

Sprityo's first substantial post.

Interesting that he's voting LC based on Phenom. Will he vote Silver based on Phenom as well? No. Absolutely not. (Though he does overvote Silver once it is a foregone conclusion.)

Says Llama is top town and does vote with Llama against LC. Llama was town. Consistent.

Also calls Dizzy top town and of course, he wasn't. Consistent.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:51 pm Im not done catching up yet, but I'm not entirely convinced on epi being innocent. Not opposed to JoH lynch either, however. I am waiting reply from a host regarding a question I have. I'll get back to you once I get done reading and receive a reply

Early bad reads on me and Epi. Consistent.


A little too consistent.

Except in that he's not looking at everyone in relation to Phenon.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:15 pm Okay so I'm brief, just having caught up on my phone. The lynch for jack has talk in the start of today and then sorta declined in discussion with a Epi stealing center stage. SVS's logic , re: the color codes, is plausible and is much more acceptable than the whole "Epi was roleblocked + no nightkill = scum" albeit I'm not a huge fan of Eli's response to situation, it seems very...odd, or forced nonchalant.

As for yesterday, LC, I've removed suspicion from you for now, I've liked your contributions so far today. Also saw Dom just put some stuff. It seems in accordance to what Dom will say to someone so it doesn't really say anything to me about him.

As far as some of the HCR guys, I'm still not fully decided on my opinions on really any of them yet. Still trying to wrap my head around Gfish since I've been seeing him both posting and talked about in between the Epignosis debacle

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:16 pm Oh right, and in short I'll leave my vote on JoH until further notice

Skipping some posts about Nifty, Adam and GFish. In summary, Sprityo says GFish is null a time or two and Adam is bad, then he switches to GFish being more bad than Adam but says he wants me lynched more.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:11 pm

Fredwood wrote:

sprityo wrote: But there are currently bigger fish to fry in my opinion instead of Gfish.

Who are they?

points at who i'm voting for

That one. I'm interested in that one.

he still hasnt answered my question from day 1 still im pretty sure, but if he has i apologize in advance

Funny reason cause I had but whatever. Kinda unclear why I'm worse than Adam and GFish, especially cause he puts forth a case on those two.

I mean, I've been told I'm not allowed to lynch everyone who votes for me for bad reasons but I keep doing it and they keep coming up bad so.

Everything else looks pretty good so far, though.



Later, Sprityo clarifies his read on me by doing his best Realmser impression.

He then takes a much more reasonable position.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:46 pm

gfishfunk wrote:Another idea occurred to me: suppose Epi is Reaver aligned, not Geth. Epi claims Geth. If Geth is in the game, Geth has no reason to share it.

This opens a one-way information flow. Geth now can follow Epi's lead.

Due to Geth's power set-up, people have a disincentive to target Epi, believing him to be Geth.

Epignosis wrote:Looking at those numbers, the civilians can afford (in a worst case scenario) three bad lynches.

I disagree. Scum factions need to hunt each other and will be looking at nightkilling each other if possible.

Okay so im here, and i agree with Gfish's concept he's putting out right here. I was thinking the same thing.

I personally believe that Epi will not die by nightkill this game if he keeps playing the way he is. I can barely tell he's trying to do anything besides save himself at this point. No content to counteract the defensive standpoint, it's all "fuck off, im more helpful to you all alive than not." which again, has been the exact opposite thus far.


Secondly, wanted to bring up Jack again and how there's a lot of comparing him to his performance in Phenon (It's PhenoN with an N, but i know mobile will autocorrect it, so phooey). essentially what im getting at here is this kind of push to get him lynched based off of a still single piece of evidence combined with these other weak stances and comparisons make me doubt if he should be lynched. Like if youre going to push to lynch a player, at least put some meat behind it yeah?

Then we go here.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:50 pm

MovingPictures07 wrote:

sprityo wrote:I have returned, im still pushing for JoH or Epi if that's on the table

I regrettably havent been paying much attention today and am not even sure why you guys are voting Silver

Is the argument for lynching Epi due to you not believing his claim or what?

I still may consider JOH myself, but like you I feel like I've been mostly out of the loop since D1.

I believe he's 3rd party indi. or im at least 90% sure he's independent

I just dont think he's playing towards the town's interest as of current. (or at least on my last check of him)

I hate that this entire ISO is about me but Sprityo isn't changing opinions on anybody but me and Epi. He's mostly (but not entirely) anti Epi. Not at all like Silver's pro-Epi stance.

Sprityo votes Silver to ensure no funny business on that lynch. Apparently, this is a thing we are doing now. The similar HCRealms thing is to pile on to 2/3rds of votes on every lynch in case of lawyers but we've kinda gotten away from that.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:29 pm good job gang

good job to the HCR guys for picking up on Silver's meta

Oddly enough, Sprityo actually calls out the Silver meta catch.

So why am I not cleared of being a ro-bit then but I was when Dizzy was lynched?

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:01 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:

sprityo wrote:naw

anyways, ive already explained why i watched myself, if you choose not to believe that, well i apologize.

in my own words i said "If I am able to, i want to RT myself, otherwise i want to watch DrWilgy"

to which i got a response along the lines of "youre allowed to watch yourself" and i was like cool

but it appears my other course of action wouldve been better. damn you self targetting why did you have to be such a good idea in my head?

Yeah. Wigly would have been a lot better.

I'd like you to watch me tonight if you are who you say you are. I don't want to be silenced again. You don't have to say anything. Just throwing that out there.

That's a negatory, ive used up both my RT's already

I've got both shots of my other ability ready though

if you must know, Nobody targetted JoH Night 1

Sprityo must be bad cause there ain't no way I didn't get targeted on night 1.








Okay so that's 3 pages of 4 on Sprityo's iso. I gotta go get slurpies, now.

I know his recent actions worry me but most of the ISO looks surprisingly good. I have some concern with Sprityo voting me instead of Dizzy. I have some concern with Sprityo's "I feel confident that Jack isn't a Reaver" thing. I don't really like that Sprityo has basically no interaction with Silver or Dizzy. His GFish interactions are not my favorite, either. Like "Yeah, GFish is bad but why don't we lynch Jack for vague reasons."

I could see him being lots of alignments.



Why did you think Dizzy was town again, Sprityo? You never really said, at least in the first three pages.


Will move on to some other players, now.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:12 pm Why would the reapers kill Fredwood though?

I would think that whoever is left would go for Cerberus to at least increase their chance at winning

Cause he was a confirmed townie.

6 vs 2 vs 1 (plus Epi) is better than 7 vs 1 vs 1 (plus Epi).


What's your case on Marmot/MP?

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:46 pm I had asked him in the first place to see if he would lie about his target. My main suspicion being if I had been poisoned. Henceforth if anything happened to me, it would fall back on him, and if he lied about who he visited, I would know

And that's all well and good and makes self RTing perhaps better in this game than most.

But it doesn't make me think you are good. It's just a statement that can't be proven.

Immortal_Raven wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:16 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:03 pm I still would like Raven to walk me through it.

Why Sprityo? Why Night 2/3? Why does Raven trust Sprityo now?

I did it after Wilgy said he suspected sprityo and after Silver came up Reaper. So I had Wilgy who had a heavy hand in both early scum lynches with a newish lead. Add that to sprit's own suspicion of me at the time and I used the power.

Now sprit RTed himself that night and confirmed my targeting. I didn't like the self-RT, but the two other options for tracking me that night are now not available. Dys being Saren and LC being a neutral meaning that the neutral I suspected can't be here due to balance if I believe Epi is Geth and I do. So yeah, sprit has a fairly confirmed power to me.

Didn't Sprityo ask you your target, you told him and then he was like "yep"?

How does that confirm Sprityo has a reverse track?

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:30 pm What do you mean it doesn't make sense? The factor that changed was that a reaper was lynched. Therefore since a Reaper was lynched, and also a player who was very much against Jack, (however at the same time not willing to vote him), in my mind that would therefore flip the tables on the alignment.

It's the same thing as saying I don't not think X and Y are aligned and if X is mafia then Y must be town and vice versa.

I do not eliminate ALL doubt from jack, I've just raised him in the threshold above other players

So...pretty much exactly what happened with Silver?

I'm trying to decide if you missing that entirely makes you more likely to be bad or more likely to be good.

I still would like Raven to walk me through it.

Why Sprityo? Why Night 2/3? Why does Raven trust Sprityo now?

I misread Ashley's power and didn't realize it was a one shot.

Yeah, night four was a double kill night.

Also, I was thinking the silencer was a Reaper on account of me going after Silver and getting silenced, then Dizzy trying to lynch me while I couldn't talk. I suppose Cerberus might have silenced me but it made more sense for the bots to do it.

Why do we know the Catylyst is in the game?

I thought the double kill was on a night both mafias kill. There's a double kill like every third night and at some point they start going every other night with no duplicated kills.

Oh wait. You're saying you think GFish was a different doggie?

CaptainNifty wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:22 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:04 am
I don't see any reason to forge a player to look like a Reaper.

I've wondered if Udina was a forgery. It would mean that there are more Cerberus out there than we thought. It could have also been used to cover Kai Leng or even the Illusive Man. While this isn't the most dastardly use, it would mean that the town has to keep talking about Forged IDs even if the Illusive Man is not there. I wonder why Cerberus hasn't used a poison yet?

Maybe but I doubt it. I tend to think the mafia can't predict a day two lynch train AND Epi's train of logic makes some sense AND there were certainly enough people switching around between me, Epi and GFish to believe somebody was trying to save or bus him.

The forge is a powerful one shot. I don't see the mafia using it on night one. Could totally waste it.

Fredwood wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:56 am I am a little concerned that if she was Saren, why aren't more people vanilla?

It's a two shot and one of them hit you, right? Lotsa dead players that can't say they were vanillaed. I wouldn't say if I was vanillaed.

Regarding the possibility of forged Reaper autopsies, I can't see why you would do that. Making a doggie appear town or making a townie look like a doggie throws the town off track. We look for the mafia buddies of a townie or ignore scummy defense of a doggie. You could accidentally frame a bot as a dog and that mostly does the same thing.

Cerberus wants to look like they are hunting Reapers and Cerberus. So creating false leads for Cerberus players is useful to maintaining this illusion. Hunting for real Reapers and fake Reapers would make them look bad.

Even forging a townie as another townie could make whoever really has that role look bad or paint one of the two townies as Cerberus.

I don't see any reason to forge a player to look like a Reaper.

The lack of ISOs and locked spoiler text is just killer.

Found a case somebody made against Adam but it's all unreadable.

@Fred, Nifty and SVS

Who do you think is the last Reaper.

I ask the three of you specifically because you are the three players I am convinced can absolutely not be Reaper aligned.

Immortal_Raven wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:10 am Yay, I finally lynched someone.

I now trust Sprit very highly.

Why?

Mind giving your targets so far, Raven? I'm curious what your thought process has been each night.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:19 pm Also I'm now much more confident that jack is town, or at the very worst Cerberus. Now to see what he has to say now that we've lynched another reaper. Also I'm dropping my push to lynch Epi since he's really only important in the instance of voting

Why does Dizzy's flip make me less likely to be a Reaper, considering Silver's flip?

By my estimation, unless someone is just going with the crowd (and you are not), the Dizzy lynch shouldn't affect their opinion of me.

Can you explain further?


Eagerly awaiting thoughts from Marmot and INH.

Lol @ 2 Reapers charging into my OMGUS phalanx.

Except when Epi is voting but again, double ifs.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:10 am Alright so what I'm having a problem with is how half the living population is voting dizzy

If anything, we could presume either:

1. Dizzy is mafia and being bussed by a teammate
2. Dizzy is any alignment and being voted on by at least two mafia members, likely same team.
3. Dizzy is town and both mafia teams know it, plus the third party is voting against her (I told y'all we should've lynched him while we could)

If Dizzy is mafia, they only have one teammate. Two if Epi is bad and thinks Dizzy is bad but Epi isn't voting anyhow.

VOTE DIZZY