The Syndicate

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 4:29 pm i'm guessing luna is claiming to be 1-shot by your posts juliets? if so, so is LC and that in itself doesn't make me suspect him.

Nope.

It'll be cleared up one way or another come daytime.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 4:05 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:50 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:39 pm "if the vig killed me".
I know. It almost says "I'm town" in the role card. Scary.
Lol! Ok, I get you. There's nothing I can say about this to make you feel better. Just try to focus on my behavior instead of the role description.

Also, on an unrelated note, you said in a recent post that I can't now put my finger on that you were concerned about Luna. Concern may not be the right word but it sounded like what you were saying is you are trying to figure her out. Is that the case? I ask because I'm trying to figure her out too. Every time I try I come away with not having enough to vote for her. What are you seeing as the puts and takes on her?

I've never been able to read Luna. It's even harder to read her when she basically doesn't show up to a game.

Maybe she's tired of being scum, and we should just lynch her. I don't know.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:39 pm "if the vig killed me".

I know. It almost says "I'm town" in the role card. Scary.

juliets wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:08 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 9:40 am
juliets wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 8:37 am Where does everyone stand on Luna today and why? @speedchuck I'm worried about her role, do you understand why without me saying? I'm off to work soon and won't be back till this afternoon.

linki with dunya's post - I will have to wait until I get back later today to go through both posts.
After the flip we just had I'd say roles are not super indicative either way.

So no, I'm not sure I do understand.
OK, it's not because of the way her role sounds because on the face of it is sounds civ. There is another reason I'm concerned but I don't want to say it in the thread. I was hoping you could read my mind.

Can you give me a hint? Coordination? Other players' roles?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:13 pm On one hand I feel concern that I am still here and thus need to be more concerned about being in a pocket. On the other, I think nova may have prevented my death by jailing me on Night 2 when my niju curse failed.

dunya seems to to have some other theory for that failed kill. Dunno what.

She doesn't want to claim, but this seems kinda important

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:51 pm I feel very comfortable calling juliets and Spacedaisy civilians.
I feel pretty comfortable calling Matahari and Long Con civilians.

My "real" POE does not feature those four. I can also be tempted by you and dunya depending upon what I am looking at and what my mood is.

I'd switch Juliets and LC here.

LC is town IMO, based on actions.
Juliets looks town, and her role looks town, but I'm paranoid about it. The role almost looks TOO town.

What's the pro-town case on Mata?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:48 pm I don't care what Luna's role is. She looks bad.

The only argument about it is that it is weak for a role madness mafia role. That's not a strong argument, even weaker in this game.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:46 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:42 pm Occam is our friend (except in the case of role-alignments, apparently)
It's not really a principle of logic despite so often being portrayed as one, so eh. This is why I rely on reads, not on ambiguous data.

JJJ, who would you actually Bank the game on them not being scum? Who would you look at right now and say "I'm willing to assume they are town and stake my win on that"?

I don't have very many of those, and it's worrisome. What is your REAL poe?

If I was utilizing normal role balance alignment stuff I'd be wanting to hang Jay. How likely would it be that town would have two post-inhibiting roles?

... But how likely WOULD that be? I have no idea. It's almost like Epi wants us to hunt instead of mass-claiming and figuring out the game through balance.

linki:

Occam is our friend (except in the case of role-alignments, apparently)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 2:35 pm nova can intend to protect dunya and end up blocking her kill as a result. Am I misunderstanding?

That is correct, but it is technically much less likely. It involves:
-Nova getting lucky instead of reading correctly
-Dunya carrying out the kill instead of whatever teammate(s) she might have left
-Probably Dunya recognizing that the kill failed for a different reason than the night 2 kill failed, based on insinuated things in the thread

As opposed to:
-Towny-looking Dunya is towny, gets protected, kill is blocked

I know roles are not an airtight thing in this game, but this is us looking at Nova and Dunya responding to roles. It makes more sense with a town dunya to me.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:49 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:47 pm If the Mafia are just flat missing kills (unknown, but plausible), that points more to leetic than anyone else. It can point to Neverwhere and niju and probably does not point to Luna.

dunya wrote: ↑Sat Apr 27, 2019 6:52 pm I know why there wasn't a kill on Night 2. I dont know why there wasn't a kill last night.

Nova townread Dunya quite a lot, before and after night 3. It's in the GTH, and it seems to be after that as well. There was no change in his suspicions on D4 that I saw after the N3 kill failed. [mention]Matahari[/mention] if you want to push something on Dunya, show me where Nova realized that he roleblocked the kill.

(For that matter, only one mafioso carries out the kill, meaning that protections are more likely to stop kills than roleblocks)

Dunya claims to have messed with the night 2 kill, and Nova supposedly (I forget where we get the information for this) jailkept Dunya on N3. Perhaps her protect/whatever was blocked and the flip told her why?

Anyway, we have reason to believe that Nova was in fact looking to protect Dunya.

[mention]dunya[/mention] I know you've already answered this, but if you were protected N3, who would have wanted to kill you most?

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 1:41 pm and just cos i have to tell you speedchuck: don't take my word for it, but i hate bussing. also, i hate being mafia. FE was the exception because quin and nutella were into it and i got dragged into what they were doing with I_D. i was extremely uncomfortable and it was probably the first game where i bussed without reason.

ancient greece is a better representation of my scum play.

I know you hate being mafia. I hope you're not, simply because it seems like you've been into this game pretty well, and when you come back and play I hope you have a good time before needing another break.

WAS IT ALL A LIE?!?

No, I don't know.

More concerned about Luna right now.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 1:33 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 1:22 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:59 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:36 pm Novas suspected her, and I'm not entirely comfortable with her taking initiative and claiming that he protected her.
where? i must have missed it.
This is why I don't rely on memory.
what do you mean?

Maybe Novas didn't actually suspect you and I hallucinated it.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:58 pm i erased that game completely from my memory and have no idea what you're talking about. i'm not joking.

I could send you a link for reminder.

(I won't)

Matahari wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 1:07 pm @juliets if I have a chance today, I will go back to night three and day 4 and quote the particular posts of Dunya’s, that made me feel really bad about her. She posted to Jay, and to maybe DDL, I’m not sure and the posts sounded like attempts at trying to paint Nova in a bad light. Like saying something about someone, that leaves a bad taste in your mouth about that someone. Then on night 4, after no one jumped onboard, she just as subtly backed away from it, and that’s what woke me up and I started watching her.

I may not be here so much today, so I’ll finish my thoughts in this post. This is about the point in every game where I begin rethinking. I’m aware that nobody is necessarily who I think they might be. Which makes everyone suspicious to me, all over again. Because of that, I just have to stand by my current list and not let it get drowned out by the passing of time, so to speak.
Dunya, Elohcin 80% or more, sure
Luna, DDL 70% or less sure
JJJ 60% or less sure
Everyone else right in the middle.

Explain this readlist please. Like, rainbow it or something. I'm stupid and don'w know what's up and what's down.

Or at least, why I SHOULDN'T

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:59 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:36 pm Novas suspected her, and I'm not entirely comfortable with her taking initiative and claiming that he protected her.
where? i must have missed it.

This is why I don't rely on memory.

Kites wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 1:07 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 12:27 pm
Kites wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:00 am I was also very confused at first reading people celebrating a civ lynch lol

At first? When did you come in the thread?
like 7 hours after the night post, so the error was already fixed

Just making sure.

I skimmed JJJ's post and it left me with a big ol' question mark on Dunya. Space Force knows I can't read dunya for crap. Bussing is totally in her meta, I know that from Fire Emblem. It makes sense.

Nova's jailkeeping either protected her or blocked her one night I think, if I'm remembering what she said about it right. "Thanks for protecting me" or something like that.
Novas suspected her, and I'm not entirely comfortable with her taking initiative and claiming that he protected her. A smattering of TMI and telling us what to think, there, in case of watchers/trackers.

But I don't know, and I'm not going to tunnel on Dunya the entire day as I've done before. Her response to JJJ is, as I noted, the same kind of response I got for suspecting her in Space Force. And I suspected her for doing the same 'taking initiative' thing I was talking about a second ago. She was town then.

Someone's probably getting nightkilled tonight. Twould be nice to talk with them before it happens.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 8:30 am but if i am nk'd tonight or lynched tomorrow, please don't let jay off the hook until lylo.

You're doing the same thing with JJJ that happened with me in SPACE FORCE. Let's all look at things as they are and not NO U into two uninformed lynches.

Kites wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 3:00 am I was also very confused at first reading people celebrating a civ lynch lol

At first? When did you come in the thread?

juliets wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 8:37 am Where does everyone stand on Luna today and why? @speedchuck I'm worried about her role, do you understand why without me saying? I'm off to work soon and won't be back till this afternoon.

linki with dunya's post - I will have to wait until I get back later today to go through both posts.

After the flip we just had I'd say roles are not super indicative either way.

So no, I'm not sure I do understand.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:56 pm @speedchuck, would you be surprised to see Luna's role on the mafia team?

No

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:28 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:23 pm If I think there might be an error, I tell Epi that privately before I go celebrating with my annoying faces.
Using that tactic is something I might expect of you.

Pointing out that you wouldn't have used it, not so much.
It would be unsportsmanlike. I play to win, but only in ways that I perceive to be honorable. It would be shitty for a mafioso to jump on a host goof for personal gain, and I don't do that stuff.

Yeah.

It's be even more unsportsmanlike to claim that it's shitty after doing it.

I believe you.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:23 pm If I think there might be an error, I tell Epi that privately before I go celebrating with my annoying faces.

Using that tactic is something I might expect of you.

Pointing out that you wouldn't have used it, not so much.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:44 pm Also, unless y'all think Epi is boring and made a mafia team with both a post curser and a silencer, I guess I'm just a civilian then.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:00 pm Uh. In the OP and dead player list, leetic/his role is showing as green.

Just in case that's in error: @Epignosis

how did you find this

oh hell

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:44 pm Also, unless y'all think Epi is boring and made a mafia team with both a post curser and a silencer, I guess I'm just a civilian then.

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

*ahem*

Anyway yeah based on what I know of this game, JJJ's role is likely town. It's an investigative role, in a way. More than you might think.

Congrats on the lynch too, good stuff

Glad I didn't change

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:37 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:34 pm Okay thank goodness.
Did you enjoy yourself?

It was fun, but for those parts of the day where people said "I don't know what you mean" instead of "Did you mean:"

That's insanification 101 guys

Okay thank goodness.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:30 pm please elaborate on those plenty of reasons.

Nova target
???

Daisy gold

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:29 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:26 pm Luna gold > Dragomir gold

So you are saying Luna's role seems civvier than Dragomir's role?

Gold > Luna Gold > Dragomir Gold

Luna gold > Dragomir gold

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:25 pm Ok are you saying Occam's razor theory would lead to this being a scum role?

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:16 pm I'm Black Cow. Civ, win when all scum/mafia die. My ability is that I can silence players for the next DP and they can't vote either.

I'm fully aware that such a role is not town friendly, so you don't have to tell me when you give your thoughts on my claim.

1. This is a closed set-up. You may role claim, info dump, lie, or whatever you want (except copying and pasting your role PM). But at what cost?

Gold

Less Gold

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:09 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:04 pm
damn you, you asked for this!

ok, so you think @Dragomir should claim? Is that what you are saying?

Luna share gold BTSC
Spacedaisy share gold BTSC
juliets share gold
JJJ share gold
Luna share speedchuck gold

DRAGOMIR share gold tonight phase!

juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:49 pm Ok so guys, are we going to stay on leetic?

Dragomir/Leetic share gold? Less phase tonight.

Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:09 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:50 pm
Dragomir wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:46 pm I subbed in yes?
Hi! Did you sub in for leetic?
Don't know yet. Haven't received a role PM.

Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:00 pm @speedchuck thanks.

Do you still find Leetic to be your top choice for today? Does his request for a replacement change your mind?

Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:27 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:19 pm
Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:02 pm
Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:53 pm Which night did Luna have btsc with Speed?
Never mind. Speedchuck said it was Night A.
TARGET night A, BTSC next phase
Thank you. I was trying to work out logistics, I think they’re called. If Nova targeted Luna night 2, would she still have been able to be in btsc with Speed? Just trying to figure out a reason why nova moved Luna to the top.

Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:02 pm
Matahari wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:53 pm Which night did Luna have btsc with Speed?
Never mind. Speedchuck said it was Night A.

TARGET night A, BTSC next phase

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