The Syndicate

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:00 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:58 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:47 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:41 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:27 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:05 pm Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

I kind of tricked myself into associating roles with alignments, which is more or less a no-go in this game.

I don't think him pointing out the slip reflects badly on him, though.

Makes sense.

Doesn't answer my question.

I disagree with you because [insert what I just said]

I have no idea what role Dom is. Your post doesn't address my reasons for suspecting/not suspecting him.

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:47 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:41 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:27 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:05 pm Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

I kind of tricked myself into associating roles with alignments, which is more or less a no-go in this game.

I don't think him pointing out the slip reflects badly on him, though.

Makes sense.

Doesn't answer my question.

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:27 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:05 pm Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

I think I've sorted Dom.

Do you agree or disagree with me?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:41 pm Also forgot Scotty was an even kill, so he is unlikely to be LC's teammate.

So let's knock "evens" off for Scotty. He could be Strex.

But IF Strex was isolated in Cerberus, why would they want a lynch to happen over here? We saw what happened when the lynch happened. :P

Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

D1 - Quin - survived
N1 - niju (Strexkill)
D2 - speedchuck
N2 - Scotty (Evens)
D3 - nutella (changed from DDL)
N3 - JoH (Strexkill)
INH dies
D4 - Long Con
N4 - Evens blocked by Strex
D5 - Long Con
N5 - Sig (Strex)
D6 - Cbob
N6 - SVS (Evens)
D7 - Marmot

BUTTON

N7 - JoH (Strex)
Nutella dies
D8 - Marmot
N8 - Sprityo (Evens)

What can we learn from this?

1. If the game is actually randomized completely, it is likely that no Strex players were in Pikachu. Or, if not likely, this is at least an explanation for their kill.
2. There is still an Even in Pikachu. If it's someone who stayed, that someone is almost certainly Epignosis. But I don't think so. I think it more likely that the Cerberus Even moved over there.
3. Unless they are a recruit (like I think nutella was, personally), niju and Sig are not Strex. JoH wasn't either. (obvious, but I'm pointing it out anyway.)

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:48 pm Well, we know the Evens were split. They killed in both tribes, and LC knew things about Cerberus; it's why he was lynched.

Yes, I mentioned that in one of my mammoth posts.

On a side note, I checked, and nobody over here mentioned Pikachu until Sloonei was being sent over.

I guess we never asked these questions in Pikachu.

"There is no guarantee of any particular number or ratio of any alignment in the tribe."
Number or Ratio, huh?

What about "Presence"? Is the PRESENCE of each alignment guaranteed in a tribe?

...

The answer to that is NO, if there are any 3P players. You can't be in two tribes at once.

Did Golden guarantee that there was any Strexcorp access to Pikachu?
Y'know what? If Golden didn't guarantee it, the game might be busted for Strex. But if he did, then I'm using that for POE, which isn't quite fair. On top of that, considering the tribes being randomly messed around as they just were... As well as the weirdness of double roles... And SVS's nullifier being in the wrong tribe... And there only being one lynch, which could snowball out of control with the vote manips/uneven participation...

I think DDL is right. This game isn't fair at all. Balanced, maybe, in terms of there not being a clear winner. But dang, this is a hot mess.
(No offense meant to [mention]Golden[/mention]. This game is perfectly fun. I'm just going to stop making balancing conclusions.)

I would not be opposed to lynching an OG Cerberite today. It gives us more information to puzzle out Days 1-8.

LoRab wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:19 pm Golden has said more than once that the tribes were completely randomized. I think it is dangerous to assume he was being disingenuous.

As for gung ho day 5 we must Lynch attitude, I think a lot of that came out of our tribe’s frustration with our inability to actually Lynch.

What if the tribes were randomized and one side ended up with only one mafioso?
What if one tribe ended up with no Evens, and the evens were handicapped?

Etcetera.

I don't know much about the setup, and I do believe that Golden randomized things. But, if both mafia teams didn't have at least one member in each tribe, I'm calling Golden out for poor game design. A mafia team that cannot see or effect HALF THE GAME is a mafia team that is destined to lose.

If you want to pare my assumptions down, then take the following into account:
If there was not a single Strexcorp baddie in Pikachu, OR if there was not a singe Evil Even in Cerberus, this game is busted as hell.

We know Long Con knew the name of this tribe. So I know he had a buddy here. Heck, he even said something like "You guys need to let cerberus have some lynches" when the rest of us had no idea what was going on. There is, at the very least, ONE Evil Even in Cerberus V1.

I'm going to assume that Marmot had a buddy in Pikachu, because Golden isn't a terrible game designer. And his buddy is likely one of the four I narrowed it to.

For balance's sake, I think there are (including defectors/recruits) more that 3 baddies on each team, like I said before. I think it's LIKELY that there were 2ish of each team on each tribe. I'm making that assumption to do some solving. But that is an assumption, and I won't rely on it all game.

I WILL rely on there being a Strexbad in Pikachu and an Even in Cerberus at gamestart.

Make sense?

Cbob, Dom, Epi, DDL.

Three of these players are now in cerberus with us. My analysis says that there is probably 2 scum among them. Definitely 1. I don't think it's Epi.

All of the scum among these are probably Strexcorp, no matter the number. Cbob's role is the most incriminating. Dom's push on LC may have been caused by Dom noticing the cerberus name, because he's seen cerberus. A stretch, but notable. DDL's bad looks mostly come from the evens, and I don't think we had 3 evens hanging out in Pikachu. At the same time, he doesn't look super.

Epi could be an option.

I will [VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine for now.

I want thoughts on the analysis above, especially from the cerberii.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:55 am I still find Scotty way suspect, but not as sure of team. I somehow was not surprised to see him trying to spearhead the Day Five "We must Lynch" train. But after I finish reading Day 5 here, that may change.

"WE MUST LYNCH."

Couple of things about that. As you have noticed, we can POE the roles in Pikachu v1 really well. A mafia member in Cerberus v1 would WANT lynches on their side, so that their teammates aren't completely screwed over.
An EVEN mafia member might want to save LC for 2 more days (thanks to cbob's role).

Or Scotty could have just been a fed-up townie.

Initial tribes (assuming 2 scum of each faction starting in each tribe, which includes defectors and recruits):

Boomslang
DrWilgy
insertnamehere - innoculation from SVS's role
Jackofhearts2005 - dead, probably town (his first role forced people to vote one way, second refreshed one-shots)
Kylemii
LoRab
Marmot - Strexcorp
nijuukyugou (nutella's BTSC partner originally)
Scotty - insanifier, scummy first role
sig - first role is incompetent helper
Sloonei
Spacedaisy

colonialbob - Not evens
dharmahelper - haikudude, probably town role (haikus provide protection from lynches with a post restriction)
Dom - not evens, for sure
Dragon D Luffy - vote manip first role, saved by LC in favor of lynching nutella, role #32
Epignosis - kept defending towny players, has been playing passionately (not at all like his night vale performance)
Long Con - Evens
nutella - Evens (maybe recruit)
Quin - town (I have pinpointed his role, and math on a lynch proves him town based on LC's role)
Speedchuck - town (meeeeee)
sprityo - Town for first life (what kid of mafia role is cecil?)
S~V~S - approached her first role in a towny way

Side Note:
Evil Evens kill on Even days
Strexcorp on odd days

Look at marmot's activation of his role for indication of this.

I'm going to grab some lunch, but as you can see, a lot of Pikachu v1 has been figured out. I'm going to do some POE in that. If my calculations are correct, there is at least one Strex in Pikachu V1. Maybe, just maybe, another Strex, a strex recruit, or an Even (only if Nutella was a recruit. Odds of another even in pikachu are low IMO, even in that case.)

I miscounted. There are 23 players.
I'm going to stick with the assumption of 4 scum on each team, especially now.
Distribution of
14 town
4 Strex
4 Evens
1 indy

More analysis incoming.

Regarding 2 scumteams:

I've played night vale mafia. That game had 19 players, with 2 scumteams and an independent. Each scumteam had 3 players. And I think that game was balanced.

Taking that general balance into account, throwing in a possible 3P for the GoC, upping the numbers by three, and keeping in mind that roles can change alignment from first role to second...

My best guess:
Strexcorp and Evil Evens have 3 baddies to start with, all in BTSC. Each team might have a recruit that becomes mafia after their first life. Nutella might have been that. Each team miiiiight have an extra mafioso who becomes town after first lynch, not in BTSC.

This puts both teams in a fluctuating state of 3-4 roles, which fits the balance of this game in my opinion.

Lots of vote manipulators on the mafia teams, based on the flips we've had. That's the only mechanical thing really pointing to DDL being townish.

As for the split, even if it was RNG'd up some, I think mafia NOT having communication across tribes would be crippling. So at least one mafioso in each tribe makes sense. And that's how we caught LC in the first place.

Conclusion: Each team has 1-2 members in each tribe starting out. Probably 2, with a chance of defectors and recruits before this thing is over. I would suggest that we make that general assumption for POE. Assume that there were 4 baddies in each tribe from the start, 2 of each kind. That general observation will take care of recruits and defectors, in my opinion. We also need to keep in mind 3P players, of course.

I'll be doing some POE analysis based on this general assumption, and I think it will be helpful, even if we are not to treat the above as gospel.
(SVS is twitching over this assumption, I can tell you that. )

LoRab wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:58 am I’m confused why suspicion seems to have moved away from DDL.

Has it? Has it really?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:43 am Linki, I doubt it too re C-Bob.

Nutella's second life was evil evens.

If Cbob was evil evens, nutella knowingly voted and set a bomb off on herself. Knowing how busy nutella has been lately, would she give herself an extra full-day of quiz work to stay alive? I don't think so.

If Cbob is strexcorp, we should be looking at people who did not vote for him or voted early as possible teammates. What do you remember?

Or Colonialbob, I suppose. I wish I could see who voted for him.

Cbob is NOT Evil Evens.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:07 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:15 am No wait.

No, just Quin. Dunno about Dom.

Yes, I now agree. And this point makes me feel way better about you. Taking all of us out of the posting powerhouse that was Pikachu and putting us here where almost no one else is talking has led to some reassessment, methinks. I just wish I could wrap my head around what happened with you and LC, but unless we are allowed back into Pikachu after the eventual (presumed?) merge, so I can reread it all, I dunno.

Thoughts on DDL, with his extreme push for you? Misguided civ, or Dragon D. Baddie?

I don't and won't judge anyone for pushing my lynch after nutella's flip. I would be pushing the same thing, whether using their reasoning or Quin's patience.

Evil Evens:

DDL had a not-so-great role in his first life. It was focused on survival, and looked scummy. LC also voted in a way early on that is consistent with them being teammates. None of this is clearer than when LC hopped over to my lynch instead of DDL's.
However, having them both be teammates gives them a ton of vote sway with those first lives. That makes it somewhat unlikely.

Wasn't DDL saved by LC, causing the lynch of nutella, though!? And nutella ended up LC's teammate.

Strexcorp:

Because DDL looked scummy, Epi tried comparing DDL to the other team, assuming that the other team was 'odds'. But DDL's role number was revealed, and he was even. So either we have two strong vote manips on the same team (DDLxLC), or the other scumteam was not odds.
The other scumteam was NOT odds. It was Strexcorp. DDLxMarmot is totally possible.

I feel like I'm rambling.

Conclusions/read:

DDL could be strexcorp. DDL's role raises balance questions if he's evil evens, but that is speculation. DDL was rescued by LC in favor of lynching someone whose second role was evil evens. That baffles me, unless nutella changed alignment, and LC was trying to frame town/other team DDL.

As for DDL's actions themselves, I think he coasted in early game and I don't like his push on my first role (Dom looked worse, though). To me, however, DDL has seemed very genuine insofar as gut read is concerned.

Follow all of that?

If we had any Strexcorp members in Pikachu at gamestart, which I think we did, I'd guess it's DDL or Dom. Epi is technically possible, but I don't think so.

No wait.

No, just Quin. Dunno about Dom.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:36 pm Second time you're saved by the Bell.

Tell us your suspects, Chuck. You have a bully pulpit for a bit. Convince me.

Dom and Quin are town IMO. There's a start.

I think I know who the dude that took me off the poll is.

Thanks. You know who you are too.

sig wrote: ↑Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:28 pm I find that harder to believe, it's not in principle a pro civ power. The whole purpose of fake role reveals is that mafia gain something from it, what would town get from a false result.

A civ TRUE role revealer

SVS is doing a great job of reading my motives. I follow her train of thought perfectly, and agree with it.

But if I were in the position of DDL or Sig, I'd be out for blood regardless. And if I understand their position, which I believe I do, there is no point in defending my towniness. It's the same as my 'mathematically, Quin is town' position. There could be another vote manip (probably is) who happened to affect the lynches in the same way LC did (probably not), which would nullify my Quin townfirm.

In the same way, there could be (and there is) a role that publicly cops a player, without lying about it. That much I know, from my position. But there's no way for me to convince people of that, and without claims, no way for anyone else to defend me.

This situation is the equivalent of me being publicly revealed as scum, and then a public rolecop flip happening right after. Sure, there COULD be an opposite counterpart in the game. But really, nobody is going to look at those odds, or read me. Especially since I happen to be decent at playing the baddie.

If everyone ends up in agreement, I'll spend tomorrow scumhunting and then self-vote. I don't need to save myself to point you in the right direction.

linki: Sig, I think SVS is arguing that there is another role that revealed me, not nutella's.

Oh. I just thought it was funny. No worries, Golden

My first role was revealed. I think it's okay to say it was a doctor

Haha is epi in the other thread, trying to lynch me?

Nice, we have our second mafia team. This game is going really well.

Oh. I must have missed that.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

I hope I stay alive long enough to at least play with you cerberus guys.

I am going to be gone during Poll End. Totally down for lynching DDL.

I doubt we'll get a lynch without more participation, though.

Good luck. Please don't lynch me. I'll be more active tomorrow, and help you guys at least have something to go off of if I bite it.

SVS, you've been looking for an excuse to vote for me. One has come along. What's up?

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:38 pmRNG?

I find it probable that Golden used randomness to allocate members in each tribe.

So let me get this straight really quickly:

Nutella and LC were both scum. You think DDL is scum with LC.

Problems: Pikachu tribe would have had so much frikin scum in it, and also so much vote manip.
Solution to said problem: RNG, powerful town roles.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:27 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:18 pm I've been gone all weekend. Sorry about that. What are we doing?

Also Nutella was day killed and is LC's teammate.

What really? Wow.

I've been gone all weekend. Sorry about that. What are we doing?

LoRab wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:10 pm Hello, new people!!

Hi

R U bad

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:26 pm linki: Right, nightkill. I mean, I guess JoH wasn't scum.
Anyone in this tribe want to tell me why JoH would be killed over a townfirm?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:29 pm And I wasn't townfirmed, I was just annoying, and I got NKed.

Was Jack annoying?

I was talking about myself.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:22 pm Cool, I just wanted to ask without DH thinking I was giving him grief. That was all so weird, I just wanted your take on it. You think DH is a civ, you no longer think Dom is bad, everyone who defended LC just made a mistake.

Dom could definitely be bad. I've been putting him off till later because I'm certain he's not LC's scummate. But there is probably either another scumteam or another anti-town in this game. Dom is not a bad pick for that.

Did dom come with us? He did! Hi Dom.

linki: Right, nightkill. I mean, I guess JoH wasn't scum.
Anyone in this tribe want to tell me why JoH would be killed over a townfirm?

Why is JoH's alignment not flipping? He's died twice.

[VOTE: BOOMSLANG] aubergine

Because I didn't know he was in this game.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:04 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:57 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:53 pm Chuck, what do you think of DH? I may or may not have already asked you this, I forget.

I think DH is town. (He's also not in this tribe)

But he mindmelded with me pretty often, and his scumhunting has seemed genuine in motive. He hasn't been opportunistic or pushy.

I know he isn't in this tribe. We can't discuss prior thoughts on people in the other tribe?

That was why I asked, though. He isn't here. He mindmelded with you while defending LC. That concerns me; it doesn't concern you?

I am of the (biased) opinion that making stupid blunders and opposing the natural order when you KNOW you will fail is a civ-looking thing to do. LC's teammate would not have defended him, methinks.

WIFOM on that all you want, but that's my opinion.

I would love a summary of what has happened here in cerberus. Though based on our lynch record, my guess is "not much."

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:53 pm Chuck, what do you think of DH? I may or may not have already asked you this, I forget.

I think DH is town. (He's also not in this tribe)

But he mindmelded with me pretty often, and his scumhunting has seemed genuine in motive. He hasn't been opportunistic or pushy.

Why is the innoculator role in this topic when SVS was in the other topic?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:47 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:28 am The players have been randomly split into two tribes. Your tribe is the Cerberus tribe. The players currently alive here are:

Boomslang
Dragon D. Luffy
LoRab
Nijuukyugou
Quin
Speedchuck
S~V~S
colonialbob
dom
insertnamehere
sig

Oooooh, nice! We split up!

They had to keep you and me together.

Swiggity swag.

Alright cerberus stagnators. I looked at your polls. The voting was atrocious. Bad participation. Sad!

Right when you finally picked it up, we had a scumslip with LC. So we still outweighed you. I think that's how it went, anyway. Could be another mechanic, but the marmot thing points to NO.

[mention]Golden[/mention] How much can we talk about the other tribe?

I hope I'm allowed to say that.

Oh my word

We were outvoting you this whole time.