The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:59 pm I had a good time overall (except for Day 1 ), but I suspect the mafia did not.

Civilians should not be able to survive at the rate they did in this game. Mafia couldn't kill. Their kill was almost useless. Couple that with the public clearings due to vote mechanics, and you have a scenario in which Mafia can never win because they will be swiftly outed.

If you run this setup 100 times, how many times will civilians win? How many times will Mafia win?

I would argue that Mafia wins less than 10% of the time.

Mafia have to be able to kill and have their kills go through in order for them to have a chance of success. If a doctor gets lucky night after night, fine- that's a fluke. If multiple mafia kills can fail for multiple reasons, rethink the setup.

Even the lynches were bad for the mafia:

Day 1 should have been a success for the mafia, but it instead worked against them.

Day 2 should have been another success for the mafia, but it instead worked against them.

Civilians should never be able to clear one another at the rate they did here, and mafia shouldn't have multiple failed kills without a lucky doctor.

Just my opinion.

I think I was a part of the problem. I'm sorry for that. I mistook my role as being mostly town-aligned, when I should have been pushing to help mafia no matter who I win with.

I do agree with your post, though. Mafia had the short end of the stick this game.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:08 am Amusing to discover that Olympus Mons was basically an anti-civilian role. The win condition may not literally state it, but if it's based on height and all the mafia are the shortest mountains, then, well...

I would have allied with you if it weren't for scums win condition being worded weird

Linki: it was obnoxious for me too. All I need is dead mountains. But nobody dies

I was very desperate after I helped get half the scum team lynched.

I was trying to die so that scum could get an extra nightkill in. And so you guys could read my role and find it in your hearts to lynch Nutella and Kyle for no reason. Ha.

Sorry if I frustrated you dunya. I definitely want to play another game with you at some point.

Oh. My hint was that you guessed my win con LC.

GG town. Glad to have helped I guess. I've been even more frustrated than mafia this game. My win condition was to be taller than all living mountains put together, whether I was alive or dead. This was impossible for a few reasons.

1. I misunderstood and thought I had to live until late game.
2. I misunderstood and thought I had to win with town.
3. People wouldn't effing DIE! Seven missed deaths! No way I could recover from that. And mafia never even attempted to kill the tallest two mountains, as far as I know.

I think I played a good town game until endgame. At that point I tried to get lunched so scum could have an extra nightkill. No point to that either.

I tried too hard to help town, not knowing I could win with scum. Sorry scum. Though it was the neutered kills in this game that stopped you. And me.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:00 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.
so what was the urgency during last lynch?

I thought sig was bad.
I thought scum could nightkill.
Friggin SEVEN failed deaths this game

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:41 pm So your suspect after nijuu is one of Quin and DDL.

I might disagree if nijuu flips town, I have another theory.

I would like to hear this theory.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:10 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.
So I was right? Like, really right? My concern is that you winning means everyone else loses. I don't know that you'll get there anyway.

I am saying NOTHING.

Your concern is invalid, but I guess you would assume I'd say that. Your concern doesn't make sense with this setup.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing

I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future?
... nnnnnnooo.

this is the worst revelation of my entire life

Well, you are only ten. I guess DDL is a good father.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future?

... nnnnnnooo.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC

Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no

I wonder how you did it. FMPOV, you shouldn't have been able to figure it out concretely. Unless you figured it out from what I said. (which would please me greatly)

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:43 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:23 am
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:37 am the only unconfirmed person is nijuu and then speed I'd say. I feel great about everyone else.
. . . do you know what 'confirmed' means?
yes, confirmed town by me. CONFIRMED.

confirm
kənˈfəːm/Submit
verb
past tense: confirmed; past participle: confirmed
reinforce someone in (an opinion or feeling).

You guys are so rude to people whose first language isn't English.

I apologize.

Generally I (and the people on the site I'm from) use 'confirmed' to mean 'mechanically confirmed'. As in that the game/rules/roles confirms someone as town or scum.
If it's any consolation, I keep forgetting that your first language isn't English, and I have no idea what it is.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:50 am I believe Night 8 was a deliberate non-kill. To make us lynch Sig.

The rest are some combination of inactivity and roles.

If so:

Is it Niju? Did she have a good enough handle on the thread to know and connect that? (I know people were outright stating it, but I don't get the feeling that Niju has kept up with the entire thread.)

If all of the lynches and nightkills had gone through this game, there would only be one player left.

If someone is intentionally not nightkilling, I'm pissed.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:31 am also there's no fucking way I wouldn't have killed you all by now tbh. That's not even wifom, that's stone dead cold hard facts.

The person that intentionally gambited by not killing anyone is the person that would bank most on it.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:37 am the only unconfirmed person is nijuu and then speed I'd say. I feel great about everyone else.

. . . do you know what 'confirmed' means?

Game's not over. Cool. If scum is around and STILL doesn't nightkill tonight Imma have a hissy fit.

DDL is smart.

I am not Pico de Gallo or whatever. If I had any sense of personal glory, I'd have stayed out of this.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:43 am It was something I posted? I bet I know what it was. Do you presume to know my role then? Yes or no will satisfy me.

Yes.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:22 am
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:03 pm I appreciate the gesture, LC. The vote, that is.
I like fun!

And I have no idea how I could possibly be a confirmed Civ. I thought I knew, but not with what you said about the timing.

Huh. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it was just coincidence.

If so, I'll go back after the game and frame the post that made me think that.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:16 pm and then I never play mafia with him again. -_-

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:05 pm I have thought a thought I thought I'd share. Tell me your thoughts on this thought.

If we lynch sig today and he's not the last baddie, the mafia is just going to continue killing again because the inactive scum idea has been dispelled. nijuu was here for the last missed nightkill, mind. We'd have 2 lynches to find them. If we don't lynch him today, we're forcing the mafia to either abstain from night kills or to show their hand. We'd gain extra lynches if they don't kill and spare us the sig mislynch if they do kill again.

That said, I do think it's sig. The first three scum flips + sig make a feasible scum team that could forget or miss kills.

WHOA. Yeah. You need a substitute kill.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:45 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:43 pm lmao @ nutella.

sorry, I just found it hilarious Kyle and DDL were still hypothesizing me as scum. Like, come on.
It's not as ridiculous as tinfoiling me though lol. Speed was talking about confirmed townies without even mentioning me?

LC is more confirmed than you.

I appreciate the gesture, LC. The vote, that is.

nijuukyugou wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:52 pm What is this about speedchuck being a bomb? I thought this was Mountain Mafia!

. . . volcanos?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:32 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:53 pm LC is 100% town by the way.
You have known this for a while?

No. I learned it on D9.

That was supposed to be a reply to Dunya's post. The one above yours.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:09 pm if we're wrong about sig and nijuu the real mafia would target the confirmed and trusted first...

I am well-aware of 'mafia theory' or whatever you want to call it.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:09 pm if we're wrong about sig and nijuu the real mafia would target the confirmed and trusted first...

specifying who those people are allows them to reshape their endgame plans

For you, maybe. Not for me.

I'm gonna leave the thread for a while. What happens will happen, I guess.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:01 pm I don't think it's wise to do this now when numbers are so great. If our theory of nijuu/sig doesn't hold up, we need to be discreet about who we are.

It's against the rules for you to do it for yourself, actually.

Dunya is 99.9% town.
LC is 100% town.

Rolewise, that is. This isn't a read or anything. I mechanically have these players marked at this point.
If someone can match K2, that's three townfirms.

LC is 100% town by the way.

Doesn't sutter buttes only lower the vote count of fellow LITTLE mountains?

Nevermind, I read kilamanjaro's role.

You're right. It totally could be Niju.

Explain to me how that many protections happened.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:16 pm If I was an active scum, I'd simply not send in a kill. It's not unheard of

If I was scum in a 1v9, you can bet I'd be killing. Especially if town can just assume protective and ignore my carefully placed WIFOM.

linki: I would be furious.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:01 pm If we don't lynch you today, and lynch another townie instead (one of sig/nijuu), does your win condition become impossible to obtain?

I don't know if I'm allowed to answer questions about this hypothetical 3P wincon that I might have.

But I personally would not be totally against such an occurence.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:07 pm another angle to consider... acquiescing to speedchuck's request puts us at a higher risk of losing if we're really just 100% wrong about sign and Nijuu. If for example LC or Quin or whomever is the final mafia and we lynch Speedchuck today and he starts killing again tonight things start getting dice-y.

You want to kill Sig. If kills happen tonight, you can rule out Sig. Ruling out the same number of people.
If kills don't happen, then you get more confirmation.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:52 pm honestly, as townies, our alliance is to townies, not helping 3P win without knowing what's at stake for us. While I sympathize with your cause, I don't believe in it as much as I believe in mine.

There is nothing at stake for you. The efficient choice would be to end the game. Thus the bullet to the head.

No harm will go to you if you help me out. It would just take some time and effort. Thus the good Samaritan reference.

The info is wiped by default for the nightkills in this and other games I've played like it. Mafia gets no bonus info.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:43 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:41 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:41 pm so my real question, if we lynch you DOES ANYONE ELSE OTHER THAN YOU DIE?

also: if we lynch you, DO you die?
No

Yes
Have you lied when answering any of my questions?

can you tell me why you didn't write a blurb about either Eloh or Wilgy in your player list? was it intentional? Y/N

N
N

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:42 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:33 pm Ah, but it's good ol speedy! How can you say no to that face?
remember Pirates? and remember how trustworthy his face looked when he was coughing up all those fake statistics and theories? Yeah, so do I . :P

My friends will never trust me again.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:41 pm so my real question, if we lynch you DOES ANYONE ELSE OTHER THAN YOU DIE?

also: if we lynch you, DO you die?

No

Yes

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:33 pm Ah, but it's good ol speedy! How can you say no to that face?

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:34 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:32 pm Like, if Sig gets on the site again. Then he can submit the scum nightkill tonight, after I get lynched.

No townies would die immediately upon my lynch.
why are you completely ruling out the possibility nijuu could be the last scum?

I strongly believe in the lack of nightkill as an indicator. I guess Matterhorn could be a god-tier doctor. If it's niju, it's niju. That changes nothing about my argument. We're tangenting. My lynch is not a danger.

Like, if Sig gets on the site again. Then he can submit the scum nightkill tonight, after I get lynched.

No townies would die immediately upon my lynch.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:22 pm if we lynch you, will any townies die? Y/N?

Emphatic N

Unless Sig comes back

I mean, IF I had a bombing role, I would have targeted inactives before anything else.

But I don't.

I have neither confirmed nor denyed my role.

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