The Syndicate

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:35 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:33 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:31 pm I love how the roles reflect what actually happened.

Soneji called sprityo bad and wanted to lynch him. But nobody listened to him cuz he was clearly insane.

Epi, the paranoid villager, brought the torches and pitchforks and lynched him.

Luna, he sane one, was the only one who knew what was happening.

But Speedchuck, the naive one, was too easily fooled and allowed sprityo the baddie to win.

Fun stuff, but not my cup of tea really. I was sitting here trying to figure out how in the world mafia ever wins these things.

At least I now have an answer: speedchuck

Most of the time one civ gets confirmed d1 and another one d2, so this ends in a 50-50.

This game actually didnt confirm anyone d1 but I haven't checked. Sometimes it goes the other way and town wins automatically but thats rare.

It also depends if no lynch is allowed or not. In games where it is town has a much better winning chance. I like to ban it though.

If I wasn't being a ninny and actually considered the questions I was asking, it would have been 50/50 here as well.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:33 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:31 pm I love how the roles reflect what actually happened.

Soneji called sprityo bad and wanted to lynch him. But nobody listened to him cuz he was clearly insane.

Epi, the paranoid villager, brought the torches and pitchforks and lynched him.

Luna, he sane one, was the only one who knew what was happening.

But Speedchuck, the naive one, was too easily fooled and allowed sprityo the baddie to win.

Fun stuff, but not my cup of tea really. I was sitting here trying to figure out how in the world mafia ever wins these things.

At least I now have an answer: speedchuck

Correct.

I have played 6 burglaries on this site.

I won ONE of them. The one where I was killed night one so I couldn't screw up my team. In all of the rest, I have been mostly responsible for the annihilation of my team.

I think I just need to leave this TF alone.

And lesson learned, I guess.

I need to stop freaking playing burglaries.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:23 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:20 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm I have no idea how I missed that possibility.

My take is that you read "civilian cop" in soneji's flip and assumed he was sane but I'm not sure either.

I think I misremembered who he checked.

wait, you mean you didn't make a spread sheet to keep up?

Nope. Clearly that was the mistake. I was in the middle of preparing a document for something else.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:24 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:23 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:21 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:20 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm I have no idea how I missed that possibility.

My take is that you read "civilian cop" in soneji's flip and assumed he was sane but I'm not sure either.

I think I misremembered who he checked.

IT. WAS. ME!!!!

Clearly.

I had it in my head that it was Epi or something. IDK. I screwed up the logic, which is just a great situation to be in.
Happens every time I try to lead town.

dont beat yourself up speed. you even said so yourself that people try to mislead you. I think you got it in your head you had it solved and stopped considering the other way it could go. in this setup all possibilities should be considered

I tried to consider it, but didn't keep track of everything. I'm pretty beating myself up right now.

Though, to be fair, if I had figured out the one other possibility, I'm not sure which way I would have gone.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:21 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:20 pm

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm I have no idea how I missed that possibility.

My take is that you read "civilian cop" in soneji's flip and assumed he was sane but I'm not sure either.

I think I misremembered who he checked.

IT. WAS. ME!!!!

Clearly.

I had it in my head that it was Epi or something. IDK. I screwed up the logic, which is just a great situation to be in.
Happens every time I try to lead town.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:18 pm I have no idea how I missed that possibility.

My take is that you read "civilian cop" in soneji's flip and assumed he was sane but I'm not sure either.

I think I misremembered who he checked.

That was like the one other possibility, and everything would have to fall perfectly in place for it to come true. 95% chance that I was right.

But chances don't matter.

Well-played, I guess, though I wasn't actually hunting. If I had, maybe I would have done better.

I have no idea how I missed that possibility.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:07 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:06 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:05 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:03 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:03 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:02 pm but speed's assessment i can back. it sounds the most logical out of everything.

idk sprit, I think you're scum.

oh?

IF the mafia were faking cop checks, they would want to chose at least someone to read as mafia. Not sure if two is a good idea though, but maybe you thought it was.

But we have a role that necessitates evil checks. Nobody else can be the paranoid cop except for Epi. And if Epi is the paranoid cop, then who is the insane cop?

Epi only checked you. that is not enough data to call him the paranoid cop. you could very easily just be mafia, and epi was the real cop.

THEN WHO WAS THE OTHER PARANOID/INSANE COP? You? Nope. Soneji? Nope. Me? Clearly not.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:06 pm epi - insane
sprit - para
speed - mafia
luna - naive
soneji - town

i mean........ yeah? it could work

speed "solved" the game too so it could be him driving the town?

If Epi's insane and I'm scum, how did he check me as scum? (Which he indirectly said that he did, by saying he was possibly the paranoid cop and not the naive cop)

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:05 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:03 pm

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:03 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:02 pm but speed's assessment i can back. it sounds the most logical out of everything.

idk sprit, I think you're scum.

oh?

IF the mafia were faking cop checks, they would want to chose at least someone to read as mafia. Not sure if two is a good idea though, but maybe you thought it was.

But we have a role that necessitates evil checks. Nobody else can be the paranoid cop except for Epi. And if Epi is the paranoid cop, then who is the insane cop?

[VOTE: Luna] aubergine

I think that even if I tried to assume myself as scum at this point in the game, it wouldn't work. It was a good game, but like One Night Werewolf, sometimes it's just solvable.

Unless I've goofed, in which case, I own it.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:58 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:55 pm Since we have confirmed 100% that Sprit and Epi are paranoid/insane cop, then whichever one is INSANE checked me and got SCUM.

Which means I am TOWN. 100% confirmed. Because Epi and Sprit both checked me, this game is 100% solvable.

I don't get how that makes this solvable. Epi could have been an actual cop, and sprit an "everyone is mafia" cop. you would then be scum.

Then who is the insane cop?

Sprit is townfirm as paranoid/insane.

Trying to think through other possibilities.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:54 pm i really want to assume speedchuck is town, hence why i already knew i'd be voting for luna today if thats the case. sadly i cant confirm it because of the way we checked

I literally just proved it with the rules of the game. Because of the way you and Epi checked me.

Since we have confirmed 100% that Sprit and Epi are paranoid/insane cop, then whichever one is INSANE checked me and got SCUM.

Which means I am TOWN. 100% confirmed. Because Epi and Sprit both checked me, this game is 100% solvable.

Epi had to be the paranoid/insane cop.

The other of the paranoid/insane cop HAS TO BE SPRIT.

Why? Because everyone else has checked 2 people, and hasn't gotten a single scumread.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:47 pm @speedchuck what was the "sorry Luna" post for?

I mean...

I feel like you're probably getting lynched today. If you are town, you lose. If you are scum, which I think you are, you lose.

So it might not have been cool for me to just semi-solve the game and lead everyone to the lynch. Sorry about that.

Your results, Sprit

I also got a civ read on Lunalee

Welp. Sorry Luna.

SONEJI/LUNA KILL THEM IF I DIE N1

I just 75%+ solved the game.

Epi -> speedscum
Sprit -> speedscum
Speed -> sonejitown
Luna -> Epitown
Soneji -> sprittown

Thoughts: Sprit would totally check me. It is something he would do. I doubt he copied Epi just for the lulz.
Epi is being meta-town Epi. That doesn't mean a whole lot in a game like this.
If I assume Epi and Sprit are town, then they would have to be the Paranoid/insane cops. This is actually likely. Insane cop only gets town results on a 25% chance pick. Paranoid always gets scum. 75% chance that these two are the town paranoid and insane cops.

GIVEN THAT

Between myself, luna, and soneji, we have a naive, sane, and scum. Again, the above assumptions mark me as town, with also a 75% chance or higher. Look at the logic. Epi and Sprit are likely independent of me to be paranoid/insane. That makes me likely town.

In that world, my read is 50% likely to be correct. Which puts everything between Soneji and Luna.

I'm willing to bank on a 75%+ chance of winning.

Lynch Soneji, then Luna.

[VOTE: Soneji] aubergine

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:27 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:25 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:25 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:24 pm Epi -> speedscum
Sprit -> speedscum
Speed -> sonejitown
Luna -> Epitown
Soneji -> sprittown

assuming that is what epi is saying. otherwise it throws a wrench in everything

Epi said he might be paranoid cop. Thus he got a scumread.

That's a bit of a screwy way of putting.

I said if I am paranoid, there's a 25% chance you are still bad because my mafia result would have been accurate.

I am a gambler, and I play the odds. The odds right now are against you being bad.

That's fair.

But what I'm saying is, if you got a townread on me, you wouldn't be saying that you might be a paranoid cop. I'm not talking about the odds. I'm satisfying Sprit's question.

Sprit I've played like 12 games with people trying to turn me against Epi early because of stuff like this. And every time that happens, he's town. The accusations themselves are NAI.

I'm gonna continue like that never happened because obstinate Epi jerking reactions out of people by being Epi is Epi Epi.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:25 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:24 pm Epi -> speedscum
Sprit -> speedscum
Speed -> sonejitown
Luna -> Epitown
Soneji -> sprittown

assuming that is what epi is saying. otherwise it throws a wrench in everything

Epi said he might be paranoid cop. Thus he got a scumread.

Epi -> speedscum
Sprit -> speedscum
Speed -> sonejitown
Luna -> Epitown
Soneji -> sprittown

We got like 15 minutes

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:19 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:17 pm I need you to explain your odds Epi

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:12 pm I am sane, insane, or paranoid.

The paranoid possibility makes things not 33%, but close enough for me.

33% chance you're insane and I'm town
33% chance of sane/scum
And then Paranoid = ??? who knows, the check is useless.

Problem is, if you got a town check on me, you'd have THE SAME ODDS. Replacing paranoid with naive

I can't seem to get a percentage that is not 50/50 with cop checks, unless you look at other player's checks

I need you to explain your odds Epi

Oh wait he read me as town?

I feel like the odds that one of Sprit and Epi are scum are better than the odds that they are together the paranoid and insane cop.

Thoughts?

Epi and Sprit both apparently copped me as scum
I copped Soneji as town
Luna copped Epi as town.

That all correct so far?

Did Epi and sprit both check me? Or...

Lunalee wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:08 pm I have determined I am either the correct cop, inverse cop, or always civ cop. Not too much to go on.

Who did you use as your determinationer?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:07 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:06 pm Hello.

Got any sprightly information fo us?

There's a 33% chance you are bad.

I don't know how to calculate the odds, but Soneji rang as civ for me

Hello.

Got any sprightly information fo us?

But we can talk right?