The Syndicate

juliets wrote:I don't think I'll play another game like this because my lack of knowledge on these terms and ways of playing was a real hindrance. I'm sorry it was so annoying for you watchers. I don't think you understand how stressful this last day was.

That's the way it is supposed to be, agree that the forge thing could easily slip past people who weren't expecting it, and in the end you guys ended up making two key lynches in 2 straight MYLO phases. So you guys did exceptionally well.

Especially considering that the end it was two replacements and a half active vs the LMS.

Was just speaking how infuriating LC comment was from my perspective.

Yeah it was right after they were blowed up but before he was hammered.

ugh phone BSC = BS

menough= me lynched

juliets wrote:
nutella wrote:
juliets wrote:nutella, I don't know how you would expect me to piece together Quin was good until he died and I took over and even then, it didn't make sense that I was not an odd night back up. Who ever heard of a backup role having more power than the original role? At the point where he died and I took over it really didn't matter what I thought - he was dead.
I thought that your role activation combined with LC's jokey hint at the Forge ability would be enough, even before Fred's flip. I do find it weird though that your role took over full-time for a previously odd-night only role, but I think it makes some amount of sense on a balance/game progression level.
I didn't recognize a hint from LC about forging. Anyway, JJJ put it together when I claimed as he has had enough experience to know an every night doc could be a back up for a limited doc.

lol it wasn't a hint he came right out and said that the mafia forged Golden to autopsy as Mafia...luckily he was spouting a ton of BSC at that point and it didn't end up getting menough lynched.

nutella wrote:Everyone seemed to ignore that post of LC's though. Even when you were all discussing the weird mafia ratio numbers, it never occurred to you that one of them might have been a fake flip.

Oh yeah, it pissed me off so much. That was only the second most infuriating thing that Long Con did this game lol.

I think even with the forge mishap, we would have lost because of Speed. Marking Quin, even though he was a strong lynch candidate for 3 straight days really torpedoed our strategy.

actively=everyone

Quin wrote:This last EoD was intense. I'm glad you change your minds in the end to go with speedchuck. If I hadn't known I might not have done that.

Just want to put this here...

Suspected Fredwood
Suspected Long Con
Suspected Golden
Suspected Soneji
...sort of suspected marmot but sort of not because i thought there was info that didn't actually exist

This was probably my best scumhunting game yet.

Thanks so much for the game sprityo, I had loadsa fun.

And Diz, and Jack, and JJJ, and Sloonei, and literally everyone else not named nutella. There was a reason you were easy to frame.

Fun game, only thing I would have done different was go with my first instinct to claim I had visited speed chuck and received a yes result. Had a strong suspicion that he was the marker, as the only other plausible candidate was Straw, and he hadn't been active enough in my mind to be marker. instead I chickened out and made myself look worse.

Good game by actively, but really, Nutella was the one player that truly scared me, I think she listed all the mafia names as suspect in one post with only like 1 or 2 other names. Granted one of them was JJJ but it was the most accurate mass read I've ever witnessed.

Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:Fred, can you explain this seeming discrepancy? When Jack flipped as a marker and the subject of demo man came up you said:

Fredwood wrote:
Damn. Oh, God...though I have to write down this role for my future games if I run any. As a mod I love the idea for a neutral killer, as a player it's fucking terrifying lol.
and this:

Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:
Sloonei wrote:My first thought when I see something about marking is a demolition man.
Could you explain what that is?
We were talking about the demo man being a random detonation based ability, not what it is.

<snipped gif>

No idea what a marker is or what a Demolition Man is.
Yet last night in the discussion with JJJ you said this (see underlined comment by JJJ and underlined corresponding comment by you):

Spoiler: show
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:I would have sat on it. Neither of them were likely dying that phase, Long Con was pretty much dead.

A Mafia NK and another mark makes the numbers 8 people with kill control over 3 of them. I let everyone bicker between Golden and Quin activate bomb late in the phase, leave 5 people and mark/kill another person. Leaving myself in a 1v3 situation.

To me it's a much more manageable situation if I wait one day, because my activation are in no danger of dying before then.
Problems immediately arising here:

1. Your argument is built around your pursuit of a superior numbers scenario, like the 1 vs. 3 situation. This still relies entirely upon the marker knowing that Golden and Quin are scum. If even one of them is not, then instead of 3 town vs. 1 rogue it's 2 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are, then it's 1 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. The best case in those is a kingmaker scenario where the townies vote on the winner against their will. Consider the current scenario again under the same circumstances:

If the mafia are eliminated, then right now it is presumably 6 town vs. 1 rogue. The marker couldn't know the mafia would be eliminated. If one of Quin and Golden is scum, it's 5 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are scum, it's 4 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. These aren't terrible situations for an LMS player either.

2. Quin and Golden were almost certainly not the only players marked. The marker could have expected someone else to die too, perhaps a town read, but that player had been demarked by Jack or otherwise redirected by one of the bus drivers.

3. This again hinges on the notion that the marker has a choice regarding when the detonation occurs. I have personally written a demo man role where there was no element of choice -- Strawhenge mentioned it earlier today.

3. So did I. The reason I have a hard time digesting the time of detonation is when it occurred. Why does spirit make it more difficult for himself to put a random time on it. Second, why do both activation go off at the same time? If it's random, wouldn't they have gone off separately based on when they were marked not together?

As for the rest.

1. No, it does not. My point is that there had to be a pretty good idea in their head that they were both scum. If I think there's a 50 percent chance that Quin, Golden or LongCon are all scum, I'm happy to let day 5 play out without interference. It's too big of a risk to eliminate the NK, imo.

In the scenario you posited, yes, they're not bad, but they're also not better then a scenario if you wait a day. If they wait a day and one of them is town and one is scum, they're in an even better situation, because then you're in a 2 v 1 v 1 scenario the next day or at worst a 3 v 1 v 1 because it's definitely MYLO at that point.

2. Jack posted all of his targets in thread, so there's no reason for one to expect other marks to go off if Jack visited people he marked earlier, or they're already dead. It would have been very easy for him to know who was marked based off of the information shared in thread.
So in one place you're saying you never heard of a demo man and in another place you are saying you have put it in a game before. Is there something here I am misunderstanding?

Oops. We were talking about the potential for the role to be randomly activated, not about if I'd heard of it before.

About the voting, hindsight is 20/20, I remember the EOD being a lot more hectic and flipfloppy then your summary suggests. I fully admit to fucking up and is probably the best case to lynch me. I also don't think it will have a lot to do with why I'm lynched either (Most likely lynched either way), if I ever play again I'll know not to bother waiting to vote.

juliets wrote:Fred, can you explain this seeming discrepancy? When Jack flipped as a marker and the subject of demo man came up you said:

Fredwood wrote:
Damn. Oh, God...though I have to write down this role for my future games if I run any. As a mod I love the idea for a neutral killer, as a player it's fucking terrifying lol.
and this:

Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:
Sloonei wrote:My first thought when I see something about marking is a demolition man.
Could you explain what that is?
We were talking about the demo man being a random detonation based ability, not what it is.

<snipped gif>

No idea what a marker is or what a Demolition Man is.
Yet last night in the discussion with JJJ you said this (see underlined comment by JJJ and underlined corresponding comment by you):

Spoiler: show
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:I would have sat on it. Neither of them were likely dying that phase, Long Con was pretty much dead.

A Mafia NK and another mark makes the numbers 8 people with kill control over 3 of them. I let everyone bicker between Golden and Quin activate bomb late in the phase, leave 5 people and mark/kill another person. Leaving myself in a 1v3 situation.

To me it's a much more manageable situation if I wait one day, because my activation are in no danger of dying before then.
Problems immediately arising here:

1. Your argument is built around your pursuit of a superior numbers scenario, like the 1 vs. 3 situation. This still relies entirely upon the marker knowing that Golden and Quin are scum. If even one of them is not, then instead of 3 town vs. 1 rogue it's 2 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are, then it's 1 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. The best case in those is a kingmaker scenario where the townies vote on the winner against their will. Consider the current scenario again under the same circumstances:

If the mafia are eliminated, then right now it is presumably 6 town vs. 1 rogue. The marker couldn't know the mafia would be eliminated. If one of Quin and Golden is scum, it's 5 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are scum, it's 4 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. These aren't terrible situations for an LMS player either.

2. Quin and Golden were almost certainly not the only players marked. The marker could have expected someone else to die too, perhaps a town read, but that player had been demarked by Jack or otherwise redirected by one of the bus drivers.

3. This again hinges on the notion that the marker has a choice regarding when the detonation occurs. I have personally written a demo man role where there was no element of choice -- Strawhenge mentioned it earlier today.

3. So did I. The reason I have a hard time digesting the time of detonation is when it occurred. Why does spirit make it more difficult for himself to put a random time on it. Second, why do both activation go off at the same time? If it's random, wouldn't they have gone off separately based on when they were marked not together?

As for the rest.

1. No, it does not. My point is that there had to be a pretty good idea in their head that they were both scum. If I think there's a 50 percent chance that Quin, Golden or LongCon are all scum, I'm happy to let day 5 play out without interference. It's too big of a risk to eliminate the NK, imo.

In the scenario you posited, yes, they're not bad, but they're also not better then a scenario if you wait a day. If they wait a day and one of them is town and one is scum, they're in an even better situation, because then you're in a 2 v 1 v 1 scenario the next day or at worst a 3 v 1 v 1 because it's definitely MYLO at that point.

2. Jack posted all of his targets in thread, so there's no reason for one to expect other marks to go off if Jack visited people he marked earlier, or they're already dead. It would have been very easy for him to know who was marked based off of the information shared in thread.
So in one place you're saying you never heard of a demo man and in another place you are saying you have put it in a game before. Is there something here I am misunderstanding?

I lied and ruined my poetic sendoff, but I caught that at the end.

I know it's a one-shot, they don't know it's a one shot. Even if I say it's a one shot, how likely are they to believe me anyway?

NP, it's pretty damning for me any way I slice it. So it's not as if my hole is any deeper than it was before, I'm just the best target right now based off POE and really don't have a lot to defend myself with. If I wasn't me I'd be inclined to lynch me too.

Anyway night.

“My tomb shall be in a spot where the north wind may scatter roses over it.”

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Also, I believe I was still concerned about info dumping being a modkillalbe offense, so I wasn't sure how to say I had information without saying I had information, so I kept bringing up his name as much as I could in order to get people to not forget about him.
?

By that point in the game, I had openly claimed tracker. Golden had openly claimed watcher. Silver Lantern had openly claimed vigilante. nutella had openly claimed one-shot day cop. What was there to be concerned about?

Power claiming is a little bit different then info dumping I think. No one had used any of the info to lynch anybody. So there was a distinction between the two in my mind at that point. I don't see how I get to one without explaining the other.

Additionally, if I could have gotten him lynched without spilling everything it's a much better situation to be in, no more information is released to mafia then is needed.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I'm less concerned about your voting behavior, Fred. What I'm trying to understand is why there is no real indicator in your posts on Day 4 that you knew Soneji was not a member of the town faction. That is a very significant claim you have made -- you literally knew through information derived from your role that Soneji was not to be trusted -- I'd expect that to show up in your posts. You needn't have necessarily claimed it outright, but it should have been very clear that you wanted to lynch Soneji and only Soneji. No other suspicion could have possibly contended with what you knew.

Especially in that final EOD sequence when Quin, Long Con, and Soneji were all under so much pressure and it became clear that one of them would die -- why didn't you do everything in your power to ensure it was Soneji who was lynched? You didn't have the same advantage of information about Quin or Long Con, so there's no feasible reason you could have been okay with lynching either of them when you knew the Soneji option would result in a non-town flip. Please just walk me through what you were doing there, because it isn't making sense to me.

I thought it was clear that I only wanted to lynch Soneji. I would have been okay with Scotty, and when I would mention, I would mention Soneji more at that point Scotty wasn't a serious consideration. I mean short of bolding it and saying LISTEN HERE MOTHER FUCKERS[/b] what else should have I done? I kept warning about wasting more time and resources on Jack and Quin, pretty sure I told Sloonei that it was better to kill Soneji because he was a better choice.

Again...the final sequence it wasn't clear that Soneji would be lynched, It was Quin and Long Con, then there were a couple of votes back up to Soneji that if I had voted for him would have caused a tie. Then all the vote swapping, like I said, to do it over again I would have voted earlier...I agree I fucked up, and there was moments of confusion. But I do recall being that late in and saying if I vote soneji I tie the vote and the last thing we needed was a no lynch.

Also, I believe I was still concerned about info dumping being a modkillalbe offense, so I wasn't sure how to say I had information without saying I had information, so I kept bringing up his name as much as I could in order to get people to not forget about him.

Last post. I did...when Jack was pressuring to make a commitment to him or Quin. Juliets even asked who I wanted to lynch instead.

I said like Scotty did...Scotty jumped in, said he hadn't read anything and then voted for Soneji with no concern for the vote situation or discussion at the time. When warning against the hammers had been prevalent to that point. Just thought it was concerning that he voted at that time and had no idea what the situation was.

The vote count was an estimation, it turned out to be wrong.

9 minutes left, a vote for Soneji would have resulted in a tied lynch between him and LongCon. Just because I would have only voted for someone didn't mean I was going to take a chance of the lynch being stalled...the only reason there would have been a mislynch was because Quin Self voted, and opened the door for Soneji to force a tie between him and Quin. Those votes were moving back and forth rather rapidly, with Soneji being one away from hammer at times, to Quin and LonCon being away at hammer at certain times. I was just beaten to the punch by Diz. That's a lesson learned about EoD here, that holding your vote til the end isn't always the best, I should have voted with an hour to go, that's on me and if I get lynched for it, so be it.

As to the giving him a pass thing, I believe it was posted somewhere that we were going after the active scum first, and I had been bringing up Soneji's name for days at that point and everyone wanted to argue about Quin.

I take that back, I would have voted Scotty as well, but that's just because he was also on my bad list because of his D3 pressuring of Sloonei and Speed, which I thought was a bit scummy because they were pushing hard for the lynch on him previously. Didn't feel like a strong case and reeked a bit too much of desperation.

Oops, messed up the formatting.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Do you feel like you've been productive with the role you do have, Fred?

Considering it was a one shot that I used on scum with an even night power on an odd night...not likely.
If it's over with then is there anything to stop you from claiming it now? I don't recall seeing a claim from you.

I'm a Seducer, once per game I can target a player that I lure back to my room, removing them from the game for that night. Additionally I could ask a yes or no question. I asked if Soneji was town and got a "no"

I seduced Soneji on N3 and asked if he was town, got a no. Why is why I was saying I wouldn't vote for anyone but Soneji on Day 4.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Do you feel like you've been productive with the role you do have, Fred?

Considering it was a one shot that I used on scum with an even night power on an odd night...not likely.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:I would have sat on it. Neither of them were likely dying that phase, Long Con was pretty much dead.

A Mafia NK and another mark makes the numbers 8 people with kill control over 3 of them. I let everyone bicker between Golden and Quin activate bomb late in the phase, leave 5 people and mark/kill another person. Leaving myself in a 1v3 situation.

To me it's a much more manageable situation if I wait one day, because my activation are in no danger of dying before then.
Problems immediately arising here:

1. Your argument is built around your pursuit of a superior numbers scenario, like the 1 vs. 3 situation. This still relies entirely upon the marker knowing that Golden and Quin are scum. If even one of them is not, then instead of 3 town vs. 1 rogue it's 2 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are, then it's 1 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. The best case in those is a kingmaker scenario where the townies vote on the winner against their will. Consider the current scenario again under the same circumstances:

If the mafia are eliminated, then right now it is presumably 6 town vs. 1 rogue. The marker couldn't know the mafia would be eliminated. If one of Quin and Golden is scum, it's 5 town vs. 1 scum vs. 1 rogue. If neither of them are scum, it's 4 town vs. 2 scum vs. 1 rogue. These aren't terrible situations for an LMS player either.

2. Quin and Golden were almost certainly not the only players marked. The marker could have expected someone else to die too, perhaps a town read, but that player had been demarked by Jack or otherwise redirected by one of the bus drivers.

3. This again hinges on the notion that the marker has a choice regarding when the detonation occurs. I have personally written a demo man role where there was no element of choice -- Strawhenge mentioned it earlier today.

3. So did I. The reason I have a hard time digesting the time of detonation is when it occurred. Why does spirit make it more difficult for himself to put a random time on it. Second, why do both activation go off at the same time? If it's random, wouldn't they have gone off separately based on when they were marked not together?

As for the rest.

1. No, it does not. My point is that there had to be a pretty good idea in their head that they were both scum. If I think there's a 50 percent chance that Quin, Golden or LongCon are all scum, I'm happy to let day 5 play out without interference. It's too big of a risk to eliminate the NK, imo.

In the scenario you posited, yes, they're not bad, but they're also not better then a scenario if you wait a day. If they wait a day and one of them is town and one is scum, they're in an even better situation, because then you're in a 2 v 1 v 1 scenario the next day or at worst a 3 v 1 v 1 because it's definitely MYLO at that point.

2. Jack posted all of his targets in thread, so there's no reason for one to expect other marks to go off if Jack visited people he marked earlier, or they're already dead. It would have been very easy for him to know who was marked based off of the information shared in thread.

Best case scenario would have been hoping for a mislynch today after activating the marks for a 1v3 on Day 7...so my math is still possible.

Let me recheck the numbers There was 11 at the start of Day 5? Long Con Lynch makes it 10, Mafia kill makes it 9 with another mark. So if 9 players left with a 33 percent kill control. Kill 3, leaves 6, kill one more next night phase leaves 5...so it's a 1v4, but it's still better then a 1v7.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:To me the only way you make that play is if you don't feel that you are in danger of being lynched in a 1v7 situation or a POE scenario but are in danger of being NK'd.
So what exactly do you propose the marker should have done? We know already that Quin and Golden were definitely marked by some means or another. Maybe they were marked earlier in the game before suspicion began to mount.

What should the marker do with that?

I would have sat on it. Neither of them were likely dying that phase, Long Con was pretty much dead.

A Mafia NK and another mark makes the numbers 8 people with kill control over 3 of them. I let everyone bicker between Golden and Quin activate bomb late in the phase, leave 5 people and mark/kill another person. Leaving myself in a 1v3 situation.

To me it's a much more manageable situation if I wait one day, because my activation are in no danger of dying before then.

Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:If it's a forced inherit, it makes even less sense than before for the marker to off the entire mafia when they did.
So the marker knew Golden and Quin were scum?

I'd think they thought there would be a high probability that at least one of them were.
That's not the argument you're making. You're talking about the strategy inherent to the marker eliminating the mafia team, something they couldn't have known. Indeed, your argument appears backwards to me. In a scenario where the marker inherits the kill, wouldn't they have more incentive to eliminate the mafia team? Removing other players from the game is the most fundamental means for any anti-town player to move closer to their win condition.
In hindsight one can say almost anything about inference of an autopsied players guilt. He knew that he marks on Quin and Golden, and that there was a definite possibility that they were mafia. If they were gaming the numbers, that would make the whole 5 mafia thing stuck in their mind.

So if I'm the marker, I activate the kill, there's a better than 50 percent chance, to my estimation that the entire mafia gets eliminated. Yes, 3 players removed is beneficial to them, but not when the removal of all 3 of those players leave you in a 1v7 scenario with no other way to reduce the numbers. I'm not saying that they knew for sure that Quin and Golden were mafia, I'm saying they had to think it was a possibility. With that knowledge it puts them in a distinct advantage in the end game if they have a killswitch on scum. Why sacrifice your advantage when the majority of your success is luck dependent anyway?

To me the only way you make that play is if you don't feel that you are in danger of being lynched in a 1v7 situation or a POE scenario but are in danger of being NK'd.

Additionally I disagree about wanting to inherit a forced NK. The very nature of the role makes it hard to counter by standard methods, especially with its built in counter being dead. A forced NK takes away that advantage and turns the SK into something that can be either prevented, misdirected or seen.

Edit, decided to change the active pronoun in the first part, missed one on edit.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:If it's a forced inherit, it makes even less sense than before for the marker to off the entire mafia when they did.
So the marker knew Golden and Quin were scum?

I'd think they thought there would be a high probability that at least one of them were.
That's not the argument you're making. You're talking about the strategy inherent to the marker eliminating the mafia team, something they couldn't have known. Indeed, your argument appears backwards to me. In a scenario where the marker inherits the kill, wouldn't they have more incentive to eliminate the mafia team? Removing other players from the game is the most fundamental means for any anti-town player to move closer to their win condition.

In hindsight one can say almost anything about inference of an autopsied players guilt. He knew that he marks on Quin and Golden, and that there was a definite possibility that they were mafia. If they were gaming the numbers, that would make the whole 5 mafia thing stuck in their mind.

So if I'm the marker, I activate the kill, there's a better than 50 percent chance, to my estimation that the entire mafia gets eliminated. Yes, 3 players removed is beneficial to them, but not when the removal of all 3 of those players leave you in a 1v7 scenario with no other way to reduce the numbers. I'm not saying that they knew for sure that Quin and Golden were mafia, I'm saying they had to think it was a possibility. With that knowledge it puts them in a distinct advantage in the end game if they have a killswitch on scum. Why sacrifice your advantage when the majority of your success is luck dependent anyway?

To me the only way you make that play is if you don't feel that you are in danger of being lynched in a 1v7 situation or a POE scenario but are in danger of being NK'd.

Additionally I disagree about wanting to inherit a forced NK. The very nature of the role makes it hard to counter by standard methods, especially with my built in counter being dead. A forced NK takes away that advantage and turns the SK into something that can be either prevented, misdirected or seen.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:If it's a forced inherit, it makes even less sense than before for the marker to off the entire mafia when they did.
So the marker knew Golden and Quin were scum?

I'd think they thought there would be a high probability that at least one of them were.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
juliets wrote:The evidence that they still exist is we had a kill last night and no one seems to have heard of an sk who inherits a mafia kill.
There's definitely a precedent for inherited kills on The Syndicate. It might not be so for sprityo's homeland. It should also be stated that the likely LMS independent here is not a serial killer but instead a marker/demo man. Who knows what kind of mechanical details that entails.

If I'm a LMS I'd rather mark then inherit the kill. The mark is ostensibly more powerful then a NK. NK turns you into something that can be interacted with during the night phase.

Unless they can do both, which would be an answer to the why fire the power at the time they did. (IE they kill all the mafia and still can mark). But I seriously doubt it.

I don't think meta mechanical numbers read is useful. "There can't be x amount of scum because it doesn't makes sense"... The fact is there was a night kill, if the LMS inherited it, again no proof, why does the marker choose to kill that way instead of marking?

If it's a forced inherit, it makes even less sense than before for the marker to off the entire mafia when they did.

There was some wiggle room I think, It definitely made him a target for suspicion, but Soneji's autopsy confirmed it. I think it's possible to deflect one bullet, but not a cannon.

Dyslexicon wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Dyslexicon wrote:I would say that Long Con's "let's get this over with" is evidence for him being the last airbender, I mean I'm not an anime nerd, mafia.
I think everthing Long Con said on Day 5 was anti-spew which could be discarded as intentional WIFOM.
I noticed the anti-spew thing, but didn't he do that before Quin and Golden was dedded, or am I wrong?

He was dead to rights at that point. Claiming to give put a gun a mafia member gave out. Unlikely any Bullshit gets him out of that.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Upon reflection I wouldn't have sent in those targets again, but oh well.

My issue with with Swapping Dys and JJJ is that as one of the higher up on the list Dys is a candidate for NK or marking.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.
You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?
Re: bolded/underlined, correct.
How does that benefit you in your attempt to disrupt the demo man?
I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You could have taken a mark of a safe player and put it onto a suspicious player. (like you did N4)

N5 you targeted two of the best suspects for the marker and swapped them. If one of us is the marker, we're not going to target ourselves, and the chance that we'd target the other is slim.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:It's game mechanics, early game Marker needs Mafia to help whittle down numbers, later game they want mafia dead once the numbers dwindle. I don't think they were at that point yet, especially if the Mafia kill targets continued the way they did, unless they felt that they could possibly be in a position to be killed (meaning solidly read town)
A few things:

~ The marker doesn't know who is mafia and who isn't, so their marking behavior isn't going to be infallibly aligned with the strategy you're presenting.

~ The marker likely wasn't limited to just two marks, as evidenced by Jack's preventive role and the passage of four night phases prior to the explosion.

~ This is all pretty speculative anyway, as our attempts to judge the desired strategy of an independent marker are inhibited by the fact that we simply don't have that role (those of us who are not guilty at least).

If not you, then who?

I don't mean specific mafia, I mean the mafia in general, specifically the Mafia kill. At that time there had to be reasonable expectation that they would at least serverly hamper the Mafia, as it was they basically ensured 3 mafia deaths in one phase.

Jack's existence doesn't make the Quin targeting make anymore sense in context. If they marked Nut or you, then yes, it reduced the amount of kills they got, but it doesn't explain to me the logic in removing Quin because his existence was buying them time.

If not me:

POE:
JJJ: confirmed townie

Not marker:
MP07: I didn't die, Jack didn't remove a mark, so MP07 can't be the marker

The eh tier could go either way:
Juliets - had information, granted not any that was ultimately, but I don't see anyone making an information claim without being able to verify it, or having a very good cover. Could the marker be able to get information (shrug) highly doubtful, but maybe remotely possible.

Dys: Gave out a vest, that didn't stop a blast, and one that could have just as easily come from his teammate. Has had strong cred entire game ensuring lynches. Just like how a marker needs the Mafia NK to whittle numbers, they'd also need the lynch.

By POE that leaves:
Straw
Speed

I've already spoken to Straw's claim, nothing Speed has said to this point has cleared him, he's kind of in the same boat as I am. Except he has a little more lynch cred, which again I don't see as proof that he's not SK, because the SK needs the lynch to reliably fire.

Likely, my best defense in my eyes, is probably one of the reasons I'm viewed as a suspect, being a careful lyncher does not help me in anyway if I'm the neutral killer. Though if I may play devil's advocate to my own defense, there does not appear to be any hesitation to lynch here anyway, and I would have been on the Soneji lynch to my own admission, which would have been the only day there was a chance of a no lynch.

Dyslexicon wrote:
Strawhenge wrote:I know, it's unprovable. And now if there's a night killer they probably won't target me. But there you have it.
I think I believe this claim.
But this also might mean you do get targeted if your suspicions is wrong.
So can we talk about why you suspect me being 3p? Is it just an aura thing, cause I get that a lot. I have a verifiable claim though, but didn't want to get into that before I had to (don't want scum targets to get easy).

However, this claim seems reasonable to me.
And JJJ is confirmed.
So adding me now rather than later is probably better.

I don't, first it's an everynight power role.

Second...it yet again does nothing against Marker, I have a hard time believing that there is only one role built into the game that can affect a marker especially since your vest did nothing against the kill.

Third unverifiable but acting like it is useful, the claim is only useful if you're likely to be NK. He's not been on anybody's radar the entire game. So he's not getting any utility out of the role.

Fourth, aside from the Mafia NK and an odd night vig, there's not enough NK's for it to be of consistent use. This does more to discredit my 1st point, but from a mechanics standpoint it's too passive of a power to reliably impact the game, where every other power to this point has had a direct impact on the game in one way or the other.

Fifth it's too perfect a claim at this point in the game. If he's SK, mafia isn't likely to target him. If he's mafia it doesn't really matter, because nothing can touch him at this point.

I think his best defense is N2 non-target, but it could just as likely be that he's a Marker who missed night two. Then again his targets are only a reflection of consensus rainbow. There is an element of truth to the "I don't know Jack just pinged me day 1", or at least he needs a target that stands out against consensus reads to seem plausible.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.
Not a fan of this thought process. If the marker had left all of those people alive, potentially [in the mind of the marker] with mafia among them, they'd be further exposed to night kills from their opposing anti-town faction. Moreover, if we lynch all of the marker's targets one by one, then the eventual detonation is going to be an anticlimactic dud. They need their marks alive to get anything out of blowing them up. Otherwise it's a bunch of flippy-floppy smoldering corpses.

Except the marker needs mafia to win right, especially with them only have 2 "marks"? That goes into my second post about poor mark targets. Why pick Quin, he was under pressure from day 2 on. I would think you remove obstacles not suspects. Especially since Quin wouldn't have been a mark day 1 it makes less sense.
Is that what the marker needs? I'd assume the marker can only win alone. What do you know?

It's game mechanics, early game Marker needs Mafia to help whittle down numbers, later game they want mafia dead once the numbers dwindle. I don't think they were at that point yet, especially if the Mafia kill targets continued the way they did, unless they felt that they could possibly be in a position to be killed (meaning solidly read town)

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I would like to hear what everyone thinks about this methodology I am employing to hunt for the marker. I have my reasons for doing the work; tell me what potential you believe it has to yield results.

I think it's content to digest, but marking or killing people in my experience is less based on who you had negative interactions with but what death benefits you the most. By this exercise with that logic everyone would have cause to mark Quin, but because of Quin's status of suspect they are unlikely to. My gut is telling me whomever targeted Quin with the mark had a small window to do it, and had little "motive" from your standpoint to do so.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.
Not a fan of this thought process. If the marker had left all of those people alive, potentially [in the mind of the marker] with mafia among them, they'd be further exposed to night kills from their opposing anti-town faction. Moreover, if we lynch all of the marker's targets one by one, then the eventual detonation is going to be an anticlimactic dud. They need their marks alive to get anything out of blowing them up. Otherwise it's a bunch of flippy-floppy smoldering corpses.

Except the marker needs mafia to win right, especially with them only have 2 "marks"? That goes into my second post about poor mark targets. Why pick Quin, he was under pressure from day 2 on. I would think you remove obstacles not suspects. Especially since Quin wouldn't have been a mark day 1 it makes less sense.

Lynch or Nightkilled*

Yeah that would be my guess as well. My first thought is some kind of day limit, Though if there was a day limit, why didn't it go off at the end of the phase? That time seems odd, there was like 6 hours left?

Also, putting myself in the shoes of the role...why Quin? Golden I can see, because up until the last two days he was not viewed as much of a subject irrc. It also stands to reason that there were probably other marks that died before they could activate. If I'm picking targets to mark, I'm not picking Quin outside of a dice role on day 1 he was a suspect by day 2 and a serious one by day 3. If I'm the marker, I want to go after people who aren't in danger of being lynched.

Fair enough about the hammer I guess, just thought it was a change, and I didn't realize we needed hammer now to lynch.

speedchuck wrote:
speedchuck wrote:
Fredwood wrote: Time delay is a stretch, the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked, can bypass protection, and can set the bombs off during the day...giving them a time delay is totally skewed in his favor, it breaks the role.
I don't follow the watching or tracking bit.
Wait, is this a slip?

You wish

(irreverent gif)

speedchuck wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Considering we've been avoiding the hammer the entire game all of the sudden we're not worried about it? I mean we had people warning against the hammer when there was 3 votes on Sig on day 1.
Hammer is now required to lynch, and two hours is not a significant amount of time, especially when the lynch was decided two days beforehand.
Then again, where I come from, hammer is almost always reached sometime the last day, or even earlier.

Fredwood wrote: How are they Icky? If I wasn't here I wasn't here. What, I should get voted because I wasn't around? People post in thread about not being around because of out of thread reasons. In fact nearly everyone has posted one, and additionally I posted one that I was going to miss almost the entire weekend. I don't see how pointing that out is "icky" if people pre-emptively explain their absence, why is it out of bounds to point to the fact that I said I wasn't going to be around?
For one, they're icky because of the meta level, in the same way that I find "I wouldn't kill this player because he's new to the forum, and I'm not like that" arguments icky. It turns the game from a question of truthfulness to a question of real-life integrity, and I don't like that.
They're also icky because they're unverifiable. Marker could say "hey, I'm gone for the next few hours" then not post, but sneak in for a half second and throw in a day action. They may have been playing video games. Again, it's an unverifiable, icky move of RL integrity, which has no place in this game.
That's a personal thing, though. Probably just me, given how people didn't flinch at JoH's NK self-analysis.

Fredwood wrote: Time delay is a stretch, the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked, can bypass protection, and can set the bombs off during the day...giving them a time delay is totally skewed in his favor, it breaks the role.
I don't follow the watching or tracking bit. And you may be right about the time delay, but I feel like it's hard to break a role that has so little chance of winning. If it is a LMS role (which evidence points to), then the chance of victory is slim. I've never seen a LMS win in any game.
Not sure I've seen a time delay/scheduling role before though, so I'll defer that one.

I don't know. If others view it as untowards, I apologize.

I've seen them win, in fact one won one of my games. It's a very rare occurrence and it does usually include bastardry of some sort, but if any role could, this one would I think. Especially in a mechanics heavy game.

juliets wrote:
Fredwood wrote:Considering we've been avoiding the hammer the entire game all of the sudden we're not worried about it? I mean we had people warning against the hammer when there was 3 votes on Sig on day 1.

How are they Icky? If I wasn't here I wasn't here. What, I should get voted because I wasn't around? People post in thread about not being around because of out of thread reasons. In fact nearly everyone has posted one, and additionally I posted one that I was going to miss almost the entire weekend. I don't see how pointing that out is "icky" if people pre-emptively explain their absence, why is it out of bounds to point to the fact that I said I wasn't going to be around?

Time delay is a stretch, the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked, can bypass protection, and can set the bombs off during the day...giving them a time delay is totally skewed in his favor, it breaks the role.
Thanks Fred. Sorry to be a pest about role things but what does it mean that the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked? Can a tracker or watcher not see a marker for some reason?

If a watcher seems them target someone, and if nothing untowards happened that night, there's no way for the Tracker to know that they were marked. Similar to why the Doctor won't be able to protect them. It is interesting that Dys vest didn't block the kill as well.

Additionally, it really doesn't make sense why the marker would choose that time to blow up the people who they did when they did. They weren't in danger of being lynched or pressured, in fact there was very little talk of the marker or push to get the marker after it was brought up. Town was preoccupied with trying to eliminate all the targets, then they go an blow up the people that are buying them time. Conceivably we would have had to take 3 days to lynch all the people that were killed that day thus giving the marker relative freedom to continue doing his dirty deeds.

I haven't really seen anyone comment on the strategy, I really don't know if it gives us any leads, just seems very bizarre to blow their wad at that time.

Considering we've been avoiding the hammer the entire game all of the sudden we're not worried about it? I mean we had people warning against the hammer when there was 3 votes on Sig on day 1.

How are they Icky? If I wasn't here I wasn't here. What, I should get voted because I wasn't around? People post in thread about not being around because of out of thread reasons. In fact nearly everyone has posted one, and additionally I posted one that I was going to miss almost the entire weekend. I don't see how pointing that out is "icky" if people pre-emptively explain their absence, why is it out of bounds to point to the fact that I said I wasn't going to be around?

Time delay is a stretch, the marker already has built in defense against being watched or tracked, can bypass protection, and can set the bombs off during the day...giving them a time delay is totally skewed in his favor, it breaks the role.

I'm not the marker simply because I simply wasn't on Sunday. I don't know if that's a great defense, I don't see how I could set off the bomb if I wasn't near my PC and I don't mafia on phone if I'm playing catch up.

Second, and probably the better reason, I'm also not the one who ended the phase 2 hours early with a hammer vote. Just saying.

As to me bringing up the marker to MP...it was literally brought up a few hours before MP replaced Eloh, and I've never even heard of that role and it's a good role (from a mod perspective) and scary from a player perspective. Seeing as the only person that I knew had targeted me was Eloh it was an excuse to get in a Kermit gif.

Quin wrote:
Spoiler: show
Fredwood wrote:Though the quin claim is interesting, it at least has me leaning more town on them then the other two.

Spoiler: show
Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:
Fredwood wrote:
juliets wrote:Dang, Fred got out of here without answering my question.

Fred, you probably didn't see this because it was in a longer post but here's my question:

Do you think it's believable that Jack would have not killed Silver Lantern, and argued with teammates not to kill him, because of his community outlook on Lantern's participation? I'm asking you because from what I gather you know Jack the best and come from the same community.
Don't know, Silver being the vig is sticky. I would agree that he would have argued against killing Silver in a normal situation. With him saying he was vig I think that argument gets shot down by the other mafia.

So, I'm not saying he did or didn't argue that Silver shouldn't be killed, but that it wouldn't have mattered because he was overridden or didn't have a better alternative. I certainly don't view Silver's death as proof of his innocence.
Yeah I wasn't focused on the rest of the team when I started thinking about this last night. Thanks.

Do you still see Scotty and Soneji (and maybe Quin, I wasn't sure if your list was in order or not) above Jack on your list of people you think are bad?

linki
Yes...

Quin was about equal at the beginning of today as Jack, the back and forth today means they aren't w/w, just not sure that it doesn't mean T/T. Jack's behavior is familiar, but he has moved ahead of Quin in suspicion for the time being. Still not in my top suspects.

You don't say a suspect is 'leaning more town', you say that a suspect is 'the least suspicious'.

You don't say a town read is 'not in my top suspects', you say that a town read is ...a town read.

So which was I, Fredwood?

Uh what...maybe you do, but I don't, seems semantic arguments are your favorite type of arguments?

You weren't a town read but were in a better position then Jack, and you weren't in my top suspects...so you weren't either. I wasn't going to vote for Jack or you unless something placed you in the top tier.

Quin wrote:
Fredwood wrote:If I may tinfoil a moment.

What's the possibility that Jack did called me out on participation on purpose to shift off the argument because he essentially was strong-arming a claim out of Quin, when most people understood the underlying context of the conversation you two had.

I guess it's possible that he knew I'd have a negative reaction to his post and would distract long enough for people to forget I guess?

Seems like a leap, but I might as well tinfoil, If just to appease Jack's desperate need of Fred based content.
Can you explain what it was you understood?

I got the impression that you were aggravated that Nut died, and your interaction with JJJ implied that you felt she shouldn't have died. I didn't know that you were claiming doctor, but it felt like a protector being upset about not being able to protect their target.

Sorry, checking in, weekends are hit and miss for me, will try to stay caught up.

All I can say, this game is entertaining. Each of EoD is progressively more and more exhilarating.

Scotty wrote:Fred wood, I see you lurking,

Why didn't you vote yesterday?

Who would you have voted?

Was going to vote Soneji. The prime times that I could have voted him would have stalemated the vote or hammered the vote, that last minute was ridiculous and was trying to vote but got linki'd to death before the day ended.

juliets wrote:
Long Con wrote:
juliets wrote:
Golden wrote:I'm feeling very ok with either soneji or quin lynches, but I'll stick my vote where it is in any event because it helps me stay sane and avoid hammer shenanigans.
I agree.

Wait Fred this not quite right.

If I am right there are two odd night doctorings. That doesn't necessarily mean another odd night doctor if you get my meaning. Sorry if thats how it came across. I'm shit at explaining this I know.

linki 1000 times
Two odd night doctors is... less likely. Explain? We have 13 minutes still.
My information says there is a doctor out there which would mean if Quin is an odd night doctor there are two doctors operating on the odd nights.

Is that other doctor most definitely town then?

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