The Syndicate

Long Con wrote:Actually, it's funny. I started out in Mafia on the now-defunct Lostpedia Forums. My original name there was Cerberus, but I got banned and came back as Long Con.

That is actually pretty hilarious. I now see that the long con is that you were secretly someone they banned. Did that ever get revealed?

So, all we really need now are two to three people to switch to JoH. Any takers?

DrWilgy wrote:Any legacy posts Gfish?

Ahem.

I really hope this is not my legacy.

DrWilgy wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Any legacy posts Gfish?

I have an hour and forty-five minutes to think of something. I'll try to compose something worth reading in the interim.

Is it an hour 45? Are my dst settings wrong?

When does the thread close?

DrWilgy wrote:Any legacy posts Gfish?

I have an hour and forty-five minutes to think of something. I'll try to compose something worth reading in the interim.

CaptainNifty wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:@Fred, My sanity and my soul. Should I join on Jack?

I see Gfish claiming. Why on earth would you not use a cop action the first night if this is your role? Any counters to this?

Because of the potential nightkill on it. How badass would that be?

And once again, I didn't hit town with it.

How in the world would you know the alignment of who you hit?

I didn't. It was a guess. And damnit if it wasn't a fantastic one because I was right.

The sheer amount of horror from you all is astounding.

Epignosis wrote:Tuck and roll bitches.

He did claim, albeit roundabout. Here is his claim Fred.

Dyslexicon wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:@Fred, My sanity and my soul. Should I join on Jack?

I see Gfish claiming. Why on earth would you not use a cop action the first night if this is your role? Any counters to this?

Because of the potential nightkill on it. How badass would that be?

And once again, I didn't hit town with it.

Alright, sorry for not being caught up. To be clear: You hit Epi with a kill chance block because you were certain enough he was scum instead of using a cop check first? Is this what you're saying?

Change vote to self preservation. Yep.

CaptainNifty wrote:I now feel way more confident about voting for you.

If you are Mordin, you did this badly.

However, I'll be surprised if you are Mordin.

I never said I was good at this game.

Dyslexicon wrote:@Fred, My sanity and my soul. Should I join on Jack?

I see Gfish claiming. Why on earth would you not use a cop action the first night if this is your role? Any counters to this?

Because of the potential nightkill on it. How badass would that be?

And once again, I didn't hit town with it.

gfishfunk wrote:

Mordin Solus
You are the very model of a Salarian scientist! And since you were recruited by Shepard to stop the Reaper threat, you have a variety of abilities you can use during the game.

Incinerate - One shot roleblock with a chance to kill your target.
Neural Shock - One shot roleblock nexus (anyone targeting you fails in their action)
Salarian Scientist - Two shot alignment cop

Might as well just quote at this point.

Incinerate. And before you give me hell for my choice of night action, I hit non-town damnit. It was a great night action.

Protection. Not a role block with protection at the same time. A role block, and I am not worried because I have protection. As in, I don't care if I draw some unwanted night attention.

Silver Lantern wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

Fredwood wrote:He claimed one of 28 roleblocks

I claimed a role block with self protection.

Is Epi only after you cause you claimed to have blocked him?

Does a kill attempt appear on him in the write up?

I blocked him. He claimed a town role.

I relented and moved my vote off. Long Con and Dyslexicon moved their votes on Epi. Epi then said it was all a trap and he is really Gesh! He was testing to see if people would buy the claim because he thought it was a ploy because one of us hit him with a kill.

I put my vote back on him. I think its a safe lynch. I think the claim could provide cover for a Reaper role. I think Epi is the type of player that would likely join Reaper anyway out of a 'hell, why not?' attitude.

Mordin Solus
You are the very model of a Salarian scientist! And since you were recruited by Shepard to stop the Reaper threat, you have a variety of abilities you can use during the game.

Incinerate - One shot roleblock with a chance to kill your target.
Neural Shock - One shot roleblock nexus (anyone targeting you fails in their action)
Salarian Scientist - Two shot alignment cop

Might as well just quote at this point.

Incinerate. And before you give me hell for my choice of night action, I hit non-town damnit. It was a great night action.

Fredwood wrote:He claimed one of 28 roleblocks

I claimed a role block with self protection.

Silver Lantern wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

Silver Lantern wrote:Okay obviously I am not gonna catch so I will try starting from the end and working my way back.

Hey Silver. Want to help lynch a possible Reaver and probable Scummy neutral? Vote Epignosis!

I really think Jack is scum, so I prefer to vote for him over anyone else.

What do we have on Epi that makes you think he's scum? All I saw (and admittedly I did not catch up) was a silly suggestion on his part that someone RBing a kill and coming forward was a reason to vote for you (I am paraphrasing), which quite frankly is kinda dumb, but not lynch worthy.

Also, did you answer my question of why you alleged there was no bodyguard in the game? IS IMPORTANT!

Epi has admitted to be the neutral role Gesh. And Reavers, Reapers. Whatever. I like Firefly better.

The bodyguard was a misread of the role that died last night.

Silver Lantern wrote:Okay obviously I am not gonna catch so I will try starting from the end and working my way back.

Hey Silver. Want to help lynch a possible Reaver and probable Scummy neutral? Vote Epignosis!

DrWilgy wrote:-That was @Epi

Linki- alot on the line gfish? What did you put on the line?

Information, reputation, and a streamlined way to figure out my role.

DrWilgy wrote:Epi, please help the civs and vote Jack.

Please don't punish all the civs for afew being wrong/misguided/mafia.

Epignosis wrote:I'm not punishing anybody. I'm also not doing their jobs for them.

DrWilgy wrote:But you aren't allowing those who at least are trying to take a chaince fpr the gain of info to be rewarded by throwing a sideline vote.

What's this? An admitted neutral is not helping out the town? I'm shocked! SHOCKED I SAY!

DrWilgy wrote:Homie, you aren't hunting. You want to look like you are hunting, but you aren't.

Your "safe" Epi vote reinforces this more so. You gathing info that you aren't using reinforces this. Your acceptance of ravens half answered questions reinforces this. Your hard claim w/o any investigation reinforced this.

You aren't a hunter.

I put a lot on the line to reveal information, garner a claim, and then moved to lynch the result. Homie, I'm the ONLY hunter.

You might not like what I do, but I don't see you doing anything.

Another idea occurred to me: suppose Epi is Reaver aligned, not Geth. Epi claims Geth. If Geth is in the game, Geth has no reason to share it.

This opens a one-way information flow. Geth now can follow Epi's lead.

Due to Geth's power set-up, people have a disincentive to target Epi, believing him to be Geth.

Epignosis wrote:Looking at those numbers, the civilians can afford (in a worst case scenario) three bad lynches.

I disagree. Scum factions need to hunt each other and will be looking at nightkilling each other if possible.

DrWilgy wrote:Tbh, I've barely read today. Work and such.

The freshest thought I have on you is that 80% you are bad and 20% I just want validation at this point.

Your RB claim is bs btw.

You barely read my post let alone this phase.

Why do you think I'm bad? And don't just say because I'm going after Epi - that is confirmation bias. Say why you think I am scum.

DrWilgy wrote:Also it seems Gfish is most likely with Cerberus.

Epi being the safe lynch is only true for Cerberus. It's also the easiest lynch for a Cerberus player.

Epignosis 5 - Long Con (9), Dyslexicon (14), Jackofhearts2005 (18), gfishfunk (20), Immortal_Raven (21)

1. Why do you think that I am Cerberus out of the five players on the lynch?

2. Between Long Con and Dyslexicon (those two specifically), which do you think are scum based on Epignosis' reasoning.

Remember, Epignosis stated that he was getting a town reading from me AFTER I pulled my vote but BEFORE he stated his reasoning. His reasoning was that anyone that caught his fake claim would know it was wrong because they tried to kill him, thus voting for him after his claim was known rather than before it was scummy.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:If I had a nickel for every pair of players that together think I am both spending too much time on Dom and also not enough time on Dom or too much time defending myself and also not enough time defending myself, I could buy a pack of gum.

I think you should talk more about nickles.

DrWilgy wrote:If Epi sides with the Reapers, he is only an extra vote right?

Lynching him now doesn't do anything for us.

It doesn't hurt the town and removes someone with incentive to vote against the town.

DrWilgy wrote:How about we lynch a Reaper and get his vote power on civ side instead of being distracted by his role.

Sounds great. Which one is the Reaper, exactly? Do you have a plan to find a Reaper and lynch a Reaper specifically? Or a plan to lynch scum other than repeatedly asking people to lynch me (or someone else in the alternative)?

Here is a better idea: all scum now only target each other. Perfect! They'll kill each other off without us needing to do anything. Brilliant plan and also works in the abstract.

Your post sounds very reasonable but it is in no way practical. My lynch preference is lynch definite scum, then neutrals. We don't know who is scum but we have a definite neutral.

DrWilgy wrote:I need to reveiw Epi's interactions with everyone. Primarily LC and see if I agree with him on what a baddie would do given those actions.

First glance I'm inclined to believe he's right regarding baddie interactions, due to his early to die meta. I'm also inclined to believe due to LC (a syndicater) being the potential interacting baddie.

I agree that his reasoning might be right, and we can definitely pursue it whether or not he is around anymore.

DrWilgy wrote:My final question. Would Epi's team purposely not put in a kill, for this plot, on the chance that someone could counter claim? I don't see it.

I don't think anyone suggested that as a possibility. I also don't see it.

Adam wrote:

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:@Adam

Specifically, what posts that SVS has made do you like and why?

Is there a way to get post numbers or am I going to have to do this the hard way?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/postin ... 1326&f=194

Its in the normal place. Same as the realms.

Adam wrote:Dom seems extraordinarily focused on Jack. Wilgy seems almost as focused on gfish. I feel like gfish and Jack haven't interacted as much as on Day 2 as on Day 1. Possibly teammates? I could definitely see a mafia with Jack and gfish going for cbob night 1.

I focused on Epi early phase, and then tried to engage both Immortal_Raven and Silver. I chatted with some others without really saying much of anything. I wasn't as interested in engaging people that were already engaged.

Fredwood wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Also, want to point out that reading the roles, there's a very good chance of there being some vote shenanigans ongoing. So having the votes extremely spread out by EoD may have variable results, which may be fun, but not the best if control is something we want. Not sure if this has been pointed out before.

lol yeah, I've been trying to streamline it, and have mentioned it, but there hasn't been a ton of discussion on the point.

Early theory: this is why we are seeing a lot of low vote totals, single votes on random people, and non-voting. Folks with weird vote powers are trying to hide their power.

Fred, care to answer these questions:

gfishfunk wrote:I'll ask this one last thing, and then let other people post (I guess).

IF Epi is a safe lynch, who is a better lynch and why?

1. Who do you think is the best lynch this phase?

2. Why is this person better than lynching Epi specifically?

3. Based on what you know or think you know, would Epi side with Alliance or Reapers? For this question, I don't care if you think Epi is lying. You can add that or whatever. I just want to know what you think Epi would do when/if he has to make a choice.

I'll ask this one last thing, and then let other people post (I guess).

IF Epi is a safe lynch, who is a better lynch and why?

1. Who do you think is the best lynch this phase?

2. Why is this person better than lynching Epi specifically?

3. Based on what you know or think you know, would Epi side with Alliance or Reapers? For this question, I don't care if you think Epi is lying. You can add that or whatever. I just want to know what you think Epi would do when/if he has to make a choice.

CaptainNifty wrote: While I get your point about town value the fact that you think neutrals and scum hold the same value for the town is crazy. Scum should be worth negative as they actively lower the net value of the town.

And while I think your argument is good that a scum-friendly neutral is a better lynch than a civilian, I'm not that the "sure thing" of a neutral is better than getting scum.

By my earlier reasoning, lynching scum is better than lynching Epi. Epi has value to the town as a neutral that can win with the town (depending on a later choice). Scum has z value of 0. Lynching scum is preferable.

That was not what I was discussing, though. A random lynch is worse than Epi at this point.

CaptainNifty wrote:I think I'd like to hear from those voting for Jack if they would accept any response from him to clear him. I would also like the silver detractors to provide something more concrete.

As a Silver voter, I'm mostly wanting to see him comment on someone other than himself to get how he is reading folks.

Fredwood wrote:Why would a townie target Epi? If he's Geth he has a self targeting ability, maybe he gets lucky and lands on Sovereign during N3...so he knows who not to vote for at that point. Not discounting the inherent probability of him being able to determine, A: Who reaper mafia is, and B: Who Sovereign is. Why would the town care if he gets lucky, he's not voting with us anyway.

The town might target Epi out of disbelief. Or scum might as well. Its one of the reasons I kept the value at 5 rather than at a lower number.

Also keep in mind that the value does not include personal ability, power sets, or anything else and assumes that we have no idea what we are doing when we lynch someone (hence random).

My thinking is that Epi is the safest lynch, possibly also making him the best lynch for that reason. I for one think Epi is being honest.

Here is my line of thinking with Epi. Sorry if its a little math-ish.

Our goal is to keep the net value of the town high.
We have 9 alliance members left. Assume each alliance member is worth 10 points.
We have 6 scum left. Assume that each scum member is worth 0 points.
We have 2 independents left. Assume each independent is worth 0 points other than Epi.
Assume Epi is who he claims to be. He is worth 5 points.

The average random lynch decreases the town's net value by an average of 5.625 (this value does not include Epi, as that would not be random).

Epi is (at best) worth 5 points: as he has two options in front of him, turn alliance or turn reaper. The actual value is lower, however, considering that Epi will likely not gain the attention of evil night actions but still might gain the attention of alliance night actions. I would argue the town value at something like 3 or 4 due to that, but I digress. 5 is just fine of a value for now.

You can absolutely disagree with my reasoning its very simplified. Absent other information or strong feelings about a specific person, I would prefer to lynch Epi.

Fredwood wrote:3. Epi - he's the safest lynch. At worst we get a neutral that has expressed willingness to side with scum, on the slight slight slight chance that he's scum, then yay, we eliminated mafia. I personally don't think he matters that much in the long scheme of things, so would rather not waste a lynch on him

I'm not opposed to doing it now rather than having it be a distraction later. Its not as if we have anything solid.

Fredwood wrote:5. LC - follow epi's lead and just see what happens. Someone want to explain a scenario where scum LC provides a fake claim for someone he think might be opposing scum, then push on the fake claim after the heat is lifted from the fake claim is accepted? Anything is possible, I'm just trying to wrap my head around it and enkendlers know I've bashed my head on my keyboard for some of LC's scum plays, I still can't see it. I think if LC is scum, the more likely scenario is that Epi was not involved in his night targeting, or he was on the team that killed Bob, I seriously doubt Epi's chain of events as presented. Indpendent of LC's interaction with Epi, LC is still in a tenuous position on my suspect list.

At first this appealed to me, but I have trouble taking my leads from admitted neturals (independents?).

Fredwood wrote:Alternatively we could just go with WIlgy's gut on fish, his last response to Silver really bothered me. Accused him of deflecting, when he didn't provide him with anything to deflect.

I didn't accuse him of deflecting. I asked him to say something that has nothing to do with reads about himself, and that IF he just went after me I would GOLFCLAP for deflecting. I want to see how Silver scum hunts in this environment. My vote is incentive - its not a final choice at this moment. Unless something odd happens, I anticipate moving my vote.

Long Con wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:2. Your vote is on Epi now, do you think Epi is a good lynch for the day?

Absolutely. I would vote for The Geth if 'The Geth' were literally on the poll. If Epi is The Geth, then he's going to side with the Reapers. I have no doubt about that, because I believe that's the smartest move. That's what I would do.

I'm not adverse to lynching Epi at this point. I think it obvious that Epi could be mafia claiming a neutral role (and the real Geth would not care so much because the real Geth - if in the game - probably does not want to be outed). I tend to believe his claim, though. However, on the little that I know about Epi, my hunch is that choosing to side with the Reapers is far, far too enticing to ignore, mostly for the challenge.

I'm very curious if s/he is right about you, however. The two are not mutually exclusive. You could be a rival mafia and Epi a mafia don, and town struck scum gold. Or Epi could be a townie (lying about being Geth in a huuuuuge play that doesn't help one bit) and you be a townie too.

3. Do you find this information (true or not) better than gut reads, alignment lists, or otherwise?

No, I think that a mosaic of information that consists of all those things is what's best. No single type of info is better than several types.[/quote]

I think that is a great answer but skips the question: which is better? I guess that falls under otherwise. I'm not even going for a read on you from this, just asking to get how the syndicate operates.

Silver Lantern 3 - Jackofhearts2005 (18), nutella (20), gfishfunk (21) 14%

Oooooph. Its that moment when you get on a train and see who you are are sharing seats with.

gfishfunk wrote:We'll several things happened while I was offline.

@Epi - interesting move. So you want us to Lynch Long Con? I might be down for it. Got to think on it. Long Con was one I read as slight green.

@Silver - I'm not overly concerned currently that you are skating or are too passive. I would love to hear some reads. How about you get off the defensive and talk about someone who isn't silver?

@other people - am I forgetting a question addressed to me? I just read through several pages.

Actually, on that note: vote silver lantern. Post something that doesn't have to do with your townness or scuminess in the game. And if you just post about how awful I am, I'll simply golf clap for you as classic deflection.

Long Con:

1. Do you think Epi is telling the truth about his claim?

2. Your vote is on Epi now, do you think Epi is a good lynch for the day?

3. Do you find this information (true or not) better than gut reads, alignment lists, or otherwise?

I am asking now because Epi essentially stated that you and Dyslexicon were likely scum affiliated that disbelieved his claim.

He seems to think (and he can correct me on this) that I genuinely roleblocked him because I backed off after getting a claim.

@Dr.Wilgy - this is the sort of thing that I look for when eliciting a claim. Not this exactly, of course, but this sort of thing. Someone claims, it comes to light that the person was lying or not, and how people react to the claim. This is no worse or better than rainbow lists, top scum picks, or asking every single person if they want to lynch gfish or raven this phase. Scratch that, its better than the last one.

We'll several things happened while I was offline.

@Epi - interesting move. So you want us to Lynch Long Con? I might be down for it. Got to think on it. Long Con was one I read as slight green.

@Silver - I'm not overly concerned currently that you are skating or are too passive. I would love to hear some reads. How about you get off the defensive and talk about someone who isn't silver?

@other people - am I forgetting a question addressed to me? I just read through several pages.

DrWilgy wrote:Gfish, how is Raven's answer ok?

How is it not?

Immortal_Raven wrote: Fred and Dom are coming across as town reads as well. Fred for the claim and devil-may-care attitude. However, if I was going pure info dump, Fred trumps gfish slightly.

I agree about Fred. Also, its a weirdly strong position because you can assume no one will attempt to kill him.

My vote is removed for now as you responded.

since everyone is silent but I can see Immortal_Raven thumbing through the thread, I thought I would move my vote to him for pressure.

Immortal_Raven, three questions:

1. Why do you think there was one kill last night rather than two?

2. Who has been the scummiest this phase?

3. Who has been the least scummiest this phase?

Keep in mind, my vote in talk-incentive not hell-or-highwater lynch just yet.

Our closed set-ups usually do not have all possible roles listed, and only reveal name + alignment upon death. Powers remain a mystery but are guessable.

sprityo wrote:

Adam wrote:I am removing my vote from Epi and placing it on Raven

I want to see some more posts from IR.

I think we should opt to have him replaced soon if he doesn't show

I believe he posted once during this phase so far.

Long Con wrote:But, if you enjoy smugly making your voters wrong by letting them mislynch you... then why did you roleclaim?

Vote Epignosis

I'm loving this dichotom. Epignosis claims and Realmers back off while Syndicate jumps on.

Here is a request to Syndicate folks: does someone want to take the lead in driving some discussion? I feel like I have been pushing conversation and posting like a madman - and now I'm either a high lynch candidate to some or a high town read to others.

Either way, I would love to see how Syndicate drive conversations and reads.

Let me restate: If have done several things to push for information. Good way to go or bad way to go, I did it.

Instead of accusing me for doing it wrong or doing it in an unhelpful way (but without dismissing the possibility, for sake of argument), what would the syndicate do instead to gather information?

Dom wrote:gfish when did you change your vote?


jack-- wh ywon't you play ball with me?

Some time after Lon Con posted a claim on Epi's behalf, but not right away. I said I was going to, then forgot and got caught up in other stuff. I moved it to jackofhearts. MOstly for lack of somewhere else to put it, but I really should have gone after Jack instead last night anyways instead of Epi.

@Adam/Nifty, Etc. -- Raven is active enough now to post on a forum from his computer. He managed to go an hour and a half in a D&D session online with me before needing a break. He might however be working slowly at work due to recovery, or might not have access to this site at work.

I am seeing a lot of our aggression this phase as a result of different styles. I am going to make a conscious effort to try and approach things from a syndicate perspective.....

.....so how does one do that?

Dom wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Were you that confident in your read of Epi? That was the important one.

Confident enough to use it. I wanted to interact with someone outside the realms. His posts right around end phase struck me as someone happy with the lynch and happy to not have his name attached. You can disagree with the read or with my ability to analyze, but its what I did.

looking @ poll-- apparently not

I attacked with a block, threw down information in the forum, and went in with a vote. When I got a reasonable claim, I backed off.

I changed my mind when the facts change. What do you do?

DrWilgy wrote:

Adam wrote:I am removing my vote from Epi and placing it on Raven

I want to see some more posts from IR.

How active is Raven normally?

Nifty, Gfish, how do you feel about Adam's swap?.

Adam's swap: I'm totally neutral with it. Pressure votes on an absent player sometimes help, mostly if that player is lurking rather than posting. If that were all that I_R posted today, I would likely vig him. Adam's vote is sort of SOP as well from a realms perspective.

DrWilgy wrote:Linki - Neat. Now let's just band together and lymch Gfish

My my DrWilgy, are you tunneling me? That's sorta my think with Epi and I wouldn't want Epi jealous.

DrWilgy wrote:How does that work in this environment? I understand pressure voring, but half the players aren't doing this, so where does that place baddies?

Gfish, you haven't acknowledged me in awhile. Why?

I responded to you earlier this phase: I tend to view you as town, slight read. You haven't added anything other than statements of distrust about me, which I already knew. For sake of argument, here is my response: no, I'm town.

Speaking of chatting: DrWiggly, do scum in this game have safe claims?

Adam wrote:Both have happened. In the majority of our setups, a kill attempt is mandatory from the mafia (or both mafias, as the case may sometimes be).

Mafia members tend to be included in the random roll, which increases pressure to get folks submitting actions.

Long Con wrote:I didn't find his hint claim to be flexible.

James Vega
You are an experienced Marine of the Systems Alliance, strong of will and heart but also naive the political underpinnings of galactic relations.

You have access to a number of one-shot abilities which may be used during any separate night phases:

Carnage - Selected player will begin the following day phase with one extra vote
Frag grenade - Selected player and all players targeting or being targeted by that player the same night will each have a 50% chance of being role blocked.
Tuck and roll - You will be immune to all non-lethal night actions this night.

Well gold star for you in figuring that out. as you may have guessed, I didn't.

Also possible explanation: Kai Leng's one shot commute (does the same thing), but its otherwise a fairly solid claim. Either way, I'll remove my vote.