The Syndicate

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:31 am Mac basically conceded for me, too.

sprityo wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:40 pm Sloonei for best civilian play 2019

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:53 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:14 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:13 pm Lol so wait. If Creature was on 1 vote. That means had TSP removed 2 votes you might have been lynched in a coin flip because of the Jack vote.

I wish we were living in that reality.

I would have died inside.

Mafia bought out stimpacks and doctor’s bags and I had some armor anyways

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:14 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:13 pm Lol so wait. If Creature was on 1 vote. That means had TSP removed 2 votes you might have been lynched in a coin flip because of the Jack vote.

I wish we were living in that reality.

I would have died inside.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 8:19 pm Killing me was a huge net loss for the mafia. I don't know why they do that. I would have gift-wrapped TSP a win. Oh well.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:10 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:06 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:04 pm Unless someone else did something that I'm unaware of, I was responsible for the TSP lynch.

Pretty gutsy move.

It was. But I'd POE'd the game down to the two of you + the guy you were both voting for, so it was pretty clear.

I started the game with a stimpack, which allowed me to remove 1 vote from a player. I used that on Creature. Then I bought a pistol from my store, which had a 2/3 chance of adding a vote to a player of my choice. I used that on Tony.

I almost didn't have enough credits to purchase anything, but I won big on the mole rats last night. Because I had to cure myself of radiation sickness when Tony hit me with that Night 1. Which, incidentally, was the real reason I was able to clear birdwithteeth. Oreki was not present Night 1 and could not have poisoned me.

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:18 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:22 pm
BWT master
This strikes me in some ways as the most simple explanation. he’s been playing thus far exactly as I would as a replacement into mafia, lying low but contributing to the discussion as necessary. Likely recruits Sloonei, Creature, maybe Mac or Jack

Tbh I probably would have recruited you or Jack if I had replaced into that role.

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:15 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:10 pm But also, here's another thing that pinged me about Tony when reviewing his posts:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:15 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:12 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:10 pm Sloonei's switch to birdwithteeth looks bad now

Analysis: Bullshit

Seems like good analysis

A few hours later...

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:20 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:10 pm Sloonei's switch to birdwithteeth looks bad now

This is dumb and what makes me suspect creature outside of just potential w/w with sabie.

Though I don’t buy the narrative that creature came in and caused a firestorm it seems like most of the game played around him just fine.

What?

What???

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!?!

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:16 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine because this game needs to be turned on its head.

I can guarantee you that’s not a winning strategy if you’re town and you seem smart enough to find a winning strategy.

So I guess [VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine

Nice no u there

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:48 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:36 am Have Creature and Bwt shown up today?

I think it’s just been you, me, and glorf today. Jack dropped a vote on me and left right at the beginning.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:31 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:09 am It’s hard to feel that this case is in good faith when half of it is just wrong and the other half is “Mac said he was probably mafia on day 1 and we just discovered this so let’s come up with extra stuff while we’re here”

What’s the half that is wrong?

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:20 am

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:57 am Witch Hunt: Why is everyone scum?

Creature - Has dropped off as the game has gone on, playstyle resembles another recent scum game. sabie kept him at arm's length when she was alive and he voted for Not Sabie Day 1.
Glorfindel - He went to great lengths to justify a scum read on Sabie Day 1. Could be an elaborate bussing effort.
Jackofhearts - Screwed around early, sabie expressed vague "iffy" scum read of him all of Day 1 and then backed off Day 2. Never voted for sabie.
Macdougall - Has dropped off since pouncing on sabie Day 1. Sabie seemed shook when he caught her Day 1. Possible recuit.
birdwithteeth - Has not done anything extraordinary one way or another since subbing in.
TonyStarkPrime - Deep wolf. I found some holes in his sabie interactions despite what would have had to be an aggressive bussing strategy.

Which of these arguments was the hardest to come up with/least convincing?
Glorfindel by a mile. Jack and birdwithteeth arguments also felt weak.

Mac needs to be the recruit if he's bad. Creature can be either, though I haven't done a deep look at his posts in a while so there might be something which changes my mind on that. I surprisingly still feel the strongest about the TonyStark read, but that could just be recency bias.

Trustfall: Why is everyone town?

Creature - Doesn't give a shit about optics. Criticism of the sabie wagon on Day 1 would be a very bold move from a Day 1 bad guy in a relatively new environment. Voted to lynch sabie.
Glorfindel - Was on board the sabie lynch from the beginning, has been an active and engaged presence throughout, Cannot Tell a Lie.
Jackofhearts - Doesn't give a shit about optics, was sabie's #1 target on Day 1.
Macdougall - Caught sabie Day 1.
birdwithteeth - Oreki wasn't even here for the first phase. birdwithteeth's presence since subbing back in resembles the player called birdwithteeth that we lynched on Day 1.
TonyStarkPrime - Look at him go. Has been the most consistent analytical voice on this list. Voted for sabie Days 1 & 2.

Glorf's still the best looking guy here (hey we're an all male game now. The Fucking Patriarchy wins again.). I feel better about my argument for birdwithteeth than the argument against him, but neither is especially strong. None of these were really difficult to come up with, honestly.

The three names that I'm getting stuck on are Mac, TSP, and Creature. A mafia team of Master Tony, Lou Tenant Sabie, and Recruit Mac might make some sense.

@Sloonei: I’m kinda with you on your suspicion of TSP. He admitted earlier this Day phase that he DID only place his vote on Sabie in the dying minutes of Day one when things were all tied up and he could do so with maximum safety. I think being Day 1, it’s more unlikely then, as ever that there would’ve been any external influences at play so in short, if he wanted to bus Sabie for Cred but not lose her, he’d have had no better opportunity. Might be a bit of a long bow but that post where Mac picked up on Sabie’s avoiding posting a read on TSP on the grounds of not being familiar with his game but then posting opinion pieces on other players with whom she also had limited exposure and TSP’s response to Mac on that do look a little strange to me.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 2:11 am Got it. Thanks, Glorf.

Mac's original post:

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:26 am I'm glad my vote provoked some content Sabie.

However here's what I see in it.

Player salad. Hitler tell (mild accuse > play your own devil's advocate > outcome null). Interesting tell (mafia say interesting when they don't want to provoke). Forcing reads just to make the post look more exhaustive. Hell you even felt the need to point out three no shows which looked like an attempt to turn what was a rambling salad into a full game read.

Note to civs: If Sabie flips scum her refusal to offer a read on TSP because she has no meta stands in contrast to the fact that she made a non meta analysis of Creature/Epignosis. Very strong chances of TSP mafia if sabie mafia.

Also what's with picking on Glorfindel who is never Mafia. He subs out when he rolls mafia. It is known.

Anyone want to tell me why we shouldn't lynch Sabie today?

Sabie if you are a civilian I will find you. Just keep pushing past me and finding Mafia. Hot tip, I am obviously a civilian here.

TSP's reponse:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:44 am

Spoiler: show

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:44 am So mac has given up on defending himself or making cases on people he accuses? Or does that not even need to happen anymore because in games I've played lately it seems like people don't have to bother to give reasons anymore. Every time I think mac is bad because he's given up and doesn't care I end up being wrong so I dont know.

As of right now I don't know for sure. I have such a hard time making reads day 1. The exchange between creature and epi was interesting but I thought that about creature and another player before and everyone was like oh that's not weird and they weren't bad so I don't know. Could they be teammates? Maybe but I feel like they wouldn't be that obvious about it.

I feel like Jack and spirityo are usually more quick to go around making accusations and getting people to talk but have been more cautious this day 1. BWT also was quick to say vote epi but didnt and hasnt said much other than that they didnt know if they checked in.

We have yet to hear from oreki colin and dragomir

I dont think I've ever played with TSP before so I dont have anything to go on. Sloonei and LC seem like they're usual selves at this point.
Glorfindel seems to be making an effort to follow Jimmy's guide and be like a super civ. Could be an effort to make sure they seem as civ as possible when maybe they aren't.

Nothing to go on?!? I said like half a dozen things.
Analysis in less words than Mac: a lot of hedging. Too many words for no real scum accusation.
A general tell especially early is that mafia makes town reads and that town makes scum reads within this kinda context and this seems clear of that but clear in the sense that every analysis was “this seems suspicious I wonder what I think about that will you please tell me what I should think about it”

Is over-punctuation a scumtell?

Sabie was already under fire and I think this is the first instance of TSP going after her. There's nothing that would necessitate civilian Tony here. I've already talked about another incident between these two that looked staged as well.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:51 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:49 pm

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:25 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:02 pm Or we could, you know, do nothing.

I want to take a look at everybody today. No stone left unturned and all that. I overextended myself on my run today and have been lying in bed on a endorphine cloud ever since, but once I have energy and motivation again i plan on asking myself what my best argument for and against every one of you is. I think that would be a good place to start and I encourage others to give it a try.

Well, for a start, I’d like to explore this post. I’m halfway through ‘Couch to 5K’ and would love to hear your experiences with running, Sloonei. How far do you normally run? How far is ‘over-extending’ yourself? Any tips for a beginner?

I don't know how to give tips! I've just kind of always done it. I played sports my entire childhood, then when high school ended I didn't have a natural fitness outlet and felt gross, so I decided to start running and now it's just a thing that I do for pleasure now, several years later. It relaxes me like nothing else, and I do it more for that than the fitness aspects of it, though I appreciate that as well.
Today I ran 7 miles, which isn't overdoing it by itself, but the temperature was in the upper-20s in Celsius with major humidity, and I also swallowed some bugs. I have no advice on how to avoid doing that, unfortunately.

I guess my main tip would be that your nutrition around the run is more important than the run itself. Drink lots of water and eat things that you won't regret later on, and make sure you do the proper amount of stretching before and after.

If you're just just starting out, keep in mind that every step counts as something. Don't try to achieve everything all at once but just go for minimal improvements every day.

[OT} Clearly, you are sadly mistaken, my friend. That is sum quality advice that I appreciate greatly. I am (in concert with the app) increasing my capacity slowly but steadily. I’ll confess, when I started out with this thing, I didn’t think I’d make it past the first week and here I am starting Week 4 tomorrow arvo. When I start, I feel great - like I king of the world! By the time I finish, I feel I should be in intensive care in a medical facility somewhere - and I feel the same no matter how far I run. I’d been wondering if I should drink more water or eat differently on the days I run and you helped clear that up for me, so I’m most grateful for the time you took to give me that advice, my friend [/OT]

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:41 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:33 pm

Spoiler: show

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:46 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine because this game needs to be turned on its head.

I can guarantee you that’s not a winning strategy if you’re town and you seem smart enough to find a winning strategy.

So I guess [VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine

This is also not a winning strategy. If voting for you is not a winning strategy and voting for me is not a winning strategy, why don’t we help each other figure out what is?

Okay fine. Let’s do it. In the interest of doing it right let’s consider all the possibilities, not just the ones most likely.

Here’s the short version.

Creature master
Given the meta defense from Jack it’s hard to see Creature as master. His play hasn’t been particularly townie but he did vote for Sabie day 2 and he posted a lot in early phases which is generally a town signal. His style of play has changed dramatically since day 2 BUT noting below he seems unlikely as a recruit unless someone were really going with something expected. Recruits Jack, Mac, Sloonei.

Jack master
I can’t objectively build this case. Likely recruits probably LC, Mac, Epi, me (according to him), Sloonei, maybe Creature (they’d played together right).

Sloonei master
Sloonei has played a town leader game, being on every lynch thus far and contributing vast walls of info. However that play has involved hedging in important situations and heavily questionable interactions with Creature and Colin and a lack of meaningful interaction with Sabie. Likely recruit Mac based on play thus far.


BWT master
This strikes me in some ways as the most simple explanation. he’s been playing thus far exactly as I would as a replacement into mafia, lying low but contributing to the discussion as necessary. Likely recruits Sloonei, Creature, maybe Mac or Jack

Mac master
Mac would have engaged upon insane amounts of bussing upon Sabie night one. That’s questionable but plausible. If he were the master I think BWT, Jack, or Glorf are the most common recruits. He’s also played with Creature so maybe that too.

TSP master
I can’t objectively build this case. I’d pick Jack, LC, or Creature as a recruit.

Glorf master
Glorf as any mafia role has taken on suspicion because apparently he has a town oriented meta which Jack really hates. Glorf has played similarly to BWT, contributing to various cases but taking no active roles (that said the only real lynch leader has been Mac on Sabie). Likely recruits Mac or Sloonei

This all makes me feel worse about a Creature lynch and a Glorf lynch to a lesser extent. They’ve been acting in ways that I can find suspicious but it seems empirically unlikely that they’d be chosen as a recruit unless someone went out of their way to make an unusual pick. Mac, Sloonei, and Jack seem like the top tier of recruits so I’d assume it’s almost given that at least one of them is mafia.

See I just can't really subscribe to this line of thinking. Why would the mafia team target someone that would be seen as a likely candidate for recruitment? The town's eyes are going to be drawn to that player naturally. Targeting a low-key or naturally murky player (Creature, Oreki, sprityo since we're just being hypothetical) is a move that goes off the radar. Maybe the mafia team would intend to play off the assumption that the Sloonei-Mac-Jacks of the world are going to be the assumed targets.

But then there's also still the issue of the Master. Who they?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:38 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:23 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:02 pm Or we could, you know, do nothing.

I want to take a look at everybody today. No stone left unturned and all that. I overextended myself on my run today and have been lying in bed on a endorphine cloud ever since, but once I have energy and motivation again i plan on asking myself what my best argument for and against every one of you is. I think that would be a good place to start and I encourage others to give it a try.

I made you a list where should I look next

These posts are why I can't lynch you. It's like trying to lynch a puppy. A really helpful, pragmatic puppy.

Why do you think Creature is a stretch as a recruit? I still feel like he's one of the most viable options for recruitment. Mac would be my next choice. Mac was town on Day 1 in 99 realities out of 100, but I can't speak so confidently about the rest of his game.

Which player(s) did you find you had the easiest time coming up with an argument for? And the hardest?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:02 pm Or we could, you know, do nothing.

I want to take a look at everybody today. No stone left unturned and all that. I overextended myself on my run today and have been lying in bed on a endorphine cloud ever since, but once I have energy and motivation again i plan on asking myself what my best argument for and against every one of you is. I think that would be a good place to start and I encourage others to give it a try.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:46 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine because this game needs to be turned on its head.

I can guarantee you that’s not a winning strategy if you’re town and you seem smart enough to find a winning strategy.

So I guess [VOTE: Sloonei] aubergine

This is also not a winning strategy. If voting for you is not a winning strategy and voting for me is not a winning strategy, why don’t we help each other figure out what is?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:04 pm [VOTE: tonystarkprime] aubergine because this game needs to be turned on its head.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:58 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:52 pm

Spoiler: show

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:03 pm Tony Starks & sabie

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:05 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:37 am [VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

Let's get some obvscum out of the way.

Would also happily lynch sprityo.

LC, Epi, Creature, TSP and Sloonei town til proven otherwise.

I am ignoring cases, voting or trolling against me in this game. Deal with that as you please. Like I am not going to spend a second defending myself. I am only solving.

What are your thoughts on jack?

Mac slams a vote for sabie down on the table and calls out a handful of town reads. Tony asks him to talk about Jack and doesn't engage him on any of the existing reads, sabie included. Noted.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:44 am

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:44 am So mac has given up on defending himself or making cases on people he accuses? Or does that not even need to happen anymore because in games I've played lately it seems like people don't have to bother to give reasons anymore. Every time I think mac is bad because he's given up and doesn't care I end up being wrong so I dont know.

As of right now I don't know for sure. I have such a hard time making reads day 1. The exchange between creature and epi was interesting but I thought that about creature and another player before and everyone was like oh that's not weird and they weren't bad so I don't know. Could they be teammates? Maybe but I feel like they wouldn't be that obvious about it.

I feel like Jack and spirityo are usually more quick to go around making accusations and getting people to talk but have been more cautious this day 1. BWT also was quick to say vote epi but didnt and hasnt said much other than that they didnt know if they checked in.

We have yet to hear from oreki colin and dragomir

I dont think I've ever played with TSP before so I dont have anything to go on. Sloonei and LC seem like they're usual selves at this point.
Glorfindel seems to be making an effort to follow Jimmy's guide and be like a super civ. Could be an effort to make sure they seem as civ as possible when maybe they aren't.

Nothing to go on?!? I said like half a dozen things.
Analysis in less words than Mac: a lot of hedging. Too many words for no real scum accusation.
A general tell especially early is that mafia makes town reads and that town makes scum reads within this kinda context and this seems clear of that but clear in the sense that every analysis was “this seems suspicious I wonder what I think about that will you please tell me what I should think about it”

Mr Stark gets all up in sabie's face. Noted.

Prods BWT1.0 for a read.
Semi-relevant banter.
Supports the sabie lynch while throwing out a handful of other reads. If I'm looking at this through rose colored glasses then Tony looks great. But I'm in too skeptical of a mood for that right now. I don't know how bussing habits, but nothing I've seen so far strongly indicates that this isn't a bus job.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:11 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:45 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:06 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:58 pm I guess for me my suspicion is towards Jack and spirityo as when civ they usually are more aggressive in scum hunting and posting and this game they seem less so.

I'm sorry I'm not super familiar with glorfindel didnt mean any offense in the accusation just speculating on things. TSP is putting in effort to be involved and producing reads. I'm not suspecting either of them at this time. I dont remember playing with either of them before so by saying I dont have a lot to go on I just meant I dont know their playstyle. They're probably doing better than I am at this point.


Mac has gotten me mislynched day 1 before but he was civ just had the wrong idea about me.

If only one of Jack and spirtyo is maf which is it
Make a case
Convince me

What I've found is that when Jack is a civ he goes after people asks questions gets discussion going gets really into it and posts a lot. As a baddie he wasn't like that he was a lot more chill. This game I haven't seen the usual civ Jack so far.


I guess the same could be said of bwt who you have voted for. As he also has not been as active as he was in the previous game where he was civ and has not provided much depth to suspicions and reads thus far this game.

Not convinced yet.
[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

I have no problem with bwt he seems unoffensive I’d rather lynch our only remaining no show than him but I think this probably is the way to go.

If I go into a tunnel on Tony, this post sets off a few alarms. After having previously announced his support of the sabie lynch based on Epi's handiwork, Tony gives sabie a generic prompt for reads. She responds with the generic answer to his generic prompt, and then he just bluntly votes for her. There's no follow up question, not even something attached to the vote to provide sabie an additional chance to develop her read(s). If I'm arguing for this being a teammate interaction, I can see the whole exchange as staged: Tony tells sabie that he is going to vote for her, but they need it to look real, so he does the minimum amount of work necessary for the two of them to have a documented interaction leading up to it. After each of them has said their line, Tony drops his vote, which easily could have gone there before all this anyway, and then pivots to other topics of discussion. My issue here is that the exchange seems arbitrary and unnecessary. Tony already had established reasons to vote for sabie, but he poked her with a single interrogative question and then seemed totally indifferent to her answer. I don't think he cared about what she had to say, because I don't think this a genuine interaction from either of them. Maybe.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:25 pm Ahem. Sorry if it sounded like I was yelling.
It was clearly not going to be a unanimous vote on Sabie and it was end of day anyways so we already had vote patterns if it was the correct option then we should have been on that instead of one of three less than half baked cases against other people. I’m not sure if probability wise that was most likely to yield the best result (I am not going near Mac’s town clear of the other two that seems like garbage) but that was the only lynch with discussion today.

This is a harsher condemnation of the sabie alternatives than anything Tony had said or indicated at any time during the actual Day 1 lynch.

He gets on her case a lot during Night 1, but if I'm operating under the assumption that Tony was bussing sabie then that doesn't really matter.

He asks her some more discussion questions in the middle of the night but I don't believe she ever responded, at least not directly. Sabie was absent from the thread for a while in between this post and her next.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:10 pm Okay we’ve got 40some hours here here are the avenues that I think we should be pursuing

Creature
Colin
Sabie
sprityo

As you’ll note I sorted them by the letters their names start with.

To these four — who’s mafia? Give me names.
As far as everyone else goes, out of these four who is the most likely to be town?
I don’t have much time tonight to talk but if anyone has ideas I’ll take em.

Tony starts the day off by immediately narrowing the focus down to just four names. Dislike.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:16 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:15 pm But also if Sabie isn’t going to be around as much there’s no point pursuing that than cases against those who’ll at least say something.

I guess same goes for sprit? In theory?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:15 pm I’m not up for rainbows right now (phone) but I’ll make a people I think we should lynch in order up of willingness to lynch them:

Colin
Sprit
Sabie
gap
Sloonei
Creature
gap
Glorf
Jack
Dragomir

Midway through Day 2 and sabie has dropped to third on his list, behind Colin and sprit, who we can now assume are/were both town. Noted. Sabie has remained consistently a suspect throughout for Tony, but mostly as a background suspect, with qualifying statements like, "I’d rather Sabie than Creature if that’s what it’s gonna be." He did eventually vote for sabie, but I don't see where that vote actually happened.

So if I try to read Tony's treatment of sabie as an aggressive bussing strategy, it's not that difficult. Their brief exchange on Day 1 is the point that stands out the most, as is his sort of backgrounding of her as a susect for most of Day 2. I'm still not sure I would take this theory the bank, but at this stage I do not want to leave any stones unturned. I'm putting this into the thread for discussion. People read all the things I say, right?

Most of this analysis isn’t worth bothering with. It’s contrived and Sloonei seems aware of that while he makes the argument. but as I always say (like twice) self aware scum is still scum.

(I think I voted for Sabie around 10-15 minutes before end of day 2 and then you moved your vote to Creature I think to tie it up for clarification)

The one thing I’m offended enough by to clarify is the main idea that I voted for Sabie without engaging about her answer thereby suggesting I didn’t care therefore maybe it was staged. I pointed out then and later that the second paragraph of Sabie’s answer was opportunistic, buddying, and didn’t answer the question laid out.

So you’re certain I’m scum then?

My issue was that your question for Sabie on Day 1 didn’t seem necessary. It looked like your mind was made up before you asked it, and it didn’t seem like you really cared about what the answer would be. That you cited it later on doesn’t really affect that. My point is that a civilian in that position would probably want to engage their suspect more than you did. You asked one generic question and the exchange ended there. I don’t know why it needed to happen.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:45 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:39 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:10 pm But also, here's another thing that pinged me about Tony when reviewing his posts:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:15 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:12 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:10 pm Sloonei's switch to birdwithteeth looks bad now

Analysis: Bullshit

Seems like good analysis

A few hours later...

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:20 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:10 pm Sloonei's switch to birdwithteeth looks bad now

This is dumb and what makes me suspect creature outside of just potential w/w with sabie.

Though I don’t buy the narrative that creature came in and caused a firestorm it seems like most of the game played around him just fine.

What?

What was the “good analysis” in post 1?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:10 pm But also, here's another thing that pinged me about Tony when reviewing his posts:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:15 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:12 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:10 pm Sloonei's switch to birdwithteeth looks bad now

Analysis: Bullshit

Seems like good analysis

A few hours later...

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:20 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 6:10 pm Sloonei's switch to birdwithteeth looks bad now

This is dumb and what makes me suspect creature outside of just potential w/w with sabie.

Though I don’t buy the narrative that creature came in and caused a firestorm it seems like most of the game played around him just fine.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:15 pm Iron Man is mafia.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:41 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:15 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:29 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:26 am I'm glad my vote provoked some content Sabie.

However here's what I see in it.

Player salad. Hitler tell (mild accuse > play your own devil's advocate > outcome null). Interesting tell (mafia say interesting when they don't want to provoke). Forcing reads just to make the post look more exhaustive. Hell you even felt the need to point out three no shows which looked like an attempt to turn what was a rambling salad into a full game read.

Note to civs: If Sabie flips scum her refusal to offer a read on TSP because she has no meta stands in contrast to the fact that she made a non meta analysis of Creature/Epignosis. Very strong chances of TSP mafia if sabie mafia.

Also what's with picking on Glorfindel who is never Mafia. He subs out when he rolls mafia. It is known.

Anyone want to tell me why we shouldn't lynch Sabie today?

Sabie if you are a civilian I will find you. Just keep pushing past me and finding Mafia. Hot tip, I am obviously a civilian here.

I forgot about this. TSP is Mafia. Lynch it.

And I recruited Jack you’ll never stop us now

I don’t believe you take this argument seriously

Why would you not believe that?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:40 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:08 am

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:26 pm Maybe you recruit one of the low posters. It's the unexpected move.

One was mod killed one found a sub.

Can BWT be the recruit?

BWT more likely to be the master. Why would anyone in their right minds recruit someone who isn’t a top town name who hadn’t posted yet

It's an awesome idea because people like you say things like this

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:55 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:51 pm You are like a wolf who has given up.

Who did you vote for the day we lynched Sabie again? I forget.

I think I voted nobody.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:03 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:06 pm Do I think this person would kill Epignosis and Long Con on Nights 1 & 2?
Colin - YES
Creature - YES
Glorfindel - TENTATIVE NO
Jackofhearts - NO
Macdougall - NO
Oreki/birdwithteeth - YES
sprityo - YES
TonyStarkPrime - YES, but he would have no particular reason to.

Sloonei - YES

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:29 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:26 am I'm glad my vote provoked some content Sabie.

However here's what I see in it.

Player salad. Hitler tell (mild accuse > play your own devil's advocate > outcome null). Interesting tell (mafia say interesting when they don't want to provoke). Forcing reads just to make the post look more exhaustive. Hell you even felt the need to point out three no shows which looked like an attempt to turn what was a rambling salad into a full game read.

Note to civs: If Sabie flips scum her refusal to offer a read on TSP because she has no meta stands in contrast to the fact that she made a non meta analysis of Creature/Epignosis. Very strong chances of TSP mafia if sabie mafia.

Also what's with picking on Glorfindel who is never Mafia. He subs out when he rolls mafia. It is known.

Anyone want to tell me why we shouldn't lynch Sabie today?

Sabie if you are a civilian I will find you. Just keep pushing past me and finding Mafia. Hot tip, I am obviously a civilian here.

I forgot about this. TSP is Mafia. Lynch it.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:27 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:19 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:08 pm Creature is talking like someone who was recruited imo.

He was the first name that came to my mind after I typed my long-winded spiel about how the mutants would have treated their recruit.

sabie had next to nothing to say about him early, though I do believe she plopped some arbitrary shade on him late in Day 2 when he was getting votes (and also voted for him, I think?), but at that time both of them were exposed to heavy scrutiny and the necessity to avoid bussing would not have applied.

Mac and Sloon both think Creature was recruited.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:57 pm

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:32 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:08 pm Creature is talking like someone who was recruited imo.

And there it is.

Between you and Creature, I feel like I've seen a bigger change with Creature's behavior. So I would be more inclined to think he is the potential recruit over you.

Creature would (I think) be an odd choice as a recruit although the Mafia team wouldn’t have had anything to go on in terms of his play when they had to make their choice. Still, I think it’s unlikely. And I agree with you, I think you’ve been anything but useless since you’ve returned to us. I thought you’ve been most constructive in your comments and observations.

BWT and Glor do not.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:26 pm Maybe you recruit one of the low posters. It's the unexpected move.

One was mod killed one found a sub.

Can BWT be the recruit?

Creature wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 9:41 pm Oh well, the lynch sucked, but we still should have a solid PoE.

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:11 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:19 pm Sprit being probably Town is a bad look for Jack. Colin being Town is a bad look for Jack. Colin maybe having copped Jack is a bad look for Jack. Given all this, I am still reasonably certain that Jack is town.

And what brings you to this conclusion given all of those facts?

birdwithteeth11 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:16 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:43 pm

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:20 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:26 pm When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

If I were were scum and in charge I wouldn’t recruit someone. It’s not a winning strategy but it’d be funny.

So as scum, you would sacrifice a chance to increase your numbers? That makes no sense to me.

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:20 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:26 pm When did I back off the Sloonei recruit theory? (Though wouldn't it be fantastic if there was just no recruit?)

And just what makes you think there would be no recruit? Sabie was sufficiently online to suggest that the Mafia team wouldn’t have missed an opportunity like that.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:30 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:00 pm I do not think we should lynch Colin today. I think Jack is town. I’m working right now if you have questions on this I’ll try to answer before EOD.

Vote Sprityo 2019!

Nah don’t vote sprityo

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:06 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:03 pm 2 hours left. Is it this quiet if a top lynch candidate is mafia? Maybe if mafia has committed hard to the shut up and let people fight campaign but generally it seems like we’re barking up the wrong tree.

Well I’m not just all y’all.

What other trees can we bark up?