The Syndicate

So we're looking for Cerberus now. Hmmm.

I really trust sprit now.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:36 am @Nifty

Chances are, you get shot tonight and the night phase is short.

Care to weigh in on any of the non Adam related thoughts and theories floating about that you haven't yet? (Appreciate your post on late game replacements btw.)

Assume no further posts and Adam gets lynched 3 (Sprit, Nut, Nifty) to 1 (SVS) with the rest of us still not voting. Adam flips Cerberus, what does that tell you? Adam flips town, what does that tell you? Adam flips an obvious forged role (like Shepherd), what does that tell you?

I'll answer my own three questions in a bit. Other homework is finish Adam and Sprit ISOs and SVS. Leaving Nutella, Raven, MP be for now in roughly that order due to time constraints.

Did I not vote for adam/Marmot? Could have sworn I did. Just in case you missed it.

VOTE ADAM/MARMOT

Also feeling more strongly that MP/INH is a baddie, simply because they volunteered to replace and haven't done much. I feel decent about spirt and Epi, if only because no one has refuted Epi's claim and he has been useful in ferreting out scum.

JoH, I'm still hazy on.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:06 pm Oh! I had a thought.

The robots killed Fredwood last night. In my opinion, that was the ideal choice and was most likely intentional.

This makes it unlikely INH or MM is the last Reaper. This is especially true if Sprityo is claiming to have misdirected INH. Add Nifty, SVS, Epi and myself to the list and the last Reaper should be Raven, Nutella or Sprityo.

Agree? Disagree?

That said, a Cerberus lynch is probably ideal today.




@Raven

But why do you think Sprityo has information on you at all? If I told you I copped you as town, would you think I was the cop? Would you rule out the idea that I just "confirmed" what you said so as not to narrow down the lynch possibilities to you and me?

Don't mistake me not following your train of thought as me waving a "lynch Sprityo" flag. This is about understanding your line of thinking.




@Nifty

I agree that was a bad pick. Nobody is better than a random target. I also think the self reverse track is a bad move. But is that alignment indicative?


@Sprityo

My understanding is that your homesite plays with setups with lots of powers. What's your general strategy with some common powers you see on your homesite?

My train of thought comes from sprit's aggressive play in asking me who I targeted. Why ask me that day as opposed to another? I think he thought he had something on me and when I answered truthfully, he backed off. Again, it doesn't rule out him totally bluffing or using a teammate's info, but I find it more likely that he went aggressive toward me because he had info and I've been pretty quiet/hard to get a read on. If he could catch me in a lie and get a lynch off, then why not do it, especially if he is town and thought I was scum at the time.

My read on sprit right now is purely power based. It is possible that he was using Dyslexicon's (Saren's) tracking results, but that seems far-fetched given that sprit came directly at me with it. Right now, I think you're looking for zebras Jack as far is sprit is concerned. What I don't know is if you're scum misdirecting or just generally entertaining all possibilities.

VOTE ADAM/MARMOT

This seems the best for now, if nothing else than to get Marmot talking for a potential read.

Perhaps some duel pressure on inh would be wise as well.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:03 pm I still would like Raven to walk me through it.

Why Sprityo? Why Night 2/3? Why does Raven trust Sprityo now?

I did it after Wilgy said he suspected sprityo and after Silver came up Reaper. So I had Wilgy who had a heavy hand in both early scum lynches with a newish lead. Add that to sprit's own suspicion of me at the time and I used the power.

Now sprit RTed himself that night and confirmed my targeting. I didn't like the self-RT, but the two other options for tracking me that night are now not available. Dys being Saren and LC being a neutral meaning that the neutral I suspected can't be here due to balance if I believe Epi is Geth and I do. So yeah, sprit has a fairly confirmed power to me.

Yay, I finally lynched someone.

I now trust Sprit very highly.

VOTE DYSLEXICON

I was getting nervous that the board had been moved and people were going to leave me in the dark.

sprityo wrote:I_R what were your other night action targets?

I had none. I used my one-off on you after Silver flipped as scum. That completely changed my opinion of Wilgy as he was heavily involved in both Silver and gfish getting lynched, both scum but opposite factions. He had suspected you late in the day Silver got lynched so I started there.

I have no other night powers and even my one-shot didn't come to fruition.

CaptainNifty wrote:

sprityo wrote:real quick, who all has claimed what?

nut is claiming Chambers
nifty is Anderson
Fred is Joker
MP claims Legion
sprit claims Tali

Jack may have hinted, but I think I missed it.

Sprit had a confirmed info gather on me when I targeted him. My only hang-up is a self-reverse-track is way risky.

I will claim Ashley Williams as well since we seem to be doing stuff like that.

Heh, I changed my mind on Wilgy finally. Only took me most of the game to be correct there.

TSP does kind of blend in at times. It's actually one of the things he's gotten better at IMHO.

Since I'm on several peoples' crap lists, should I actually claim? I did hint at my role last week. I believe with some explanation that folks would believe and come up with better ideas to catch the remaining 4 scummers, though Dizzy seems a strong candidate today.

DrWilgy wrote:Put it on IR.

I think him, Adam, or Sprityo are good options at a glance.

Don't put it on me. I may be a borderline useless Civvie, but lynching me to cut deadwood is a luxury that you really can't afford.

Fredwood wrote:I'm not following on your Nut logic. You mean how she made Nifty say he targeted her?

I think the voting record is her best defense, it at least puts her well above the bottom list. If nut isn't town then I have to reassess my entire mafia worldview.

We can always save Spirit and IR for last then. I think info dump favors Spirit. And I'm with you, Adam is a crafty bastard.

I went and changed my vote to SVS, her defense today really bothered me. Of all the 5 she's the one I'm most sure of being some kind of baddie. I'm flexible though, should keep LC around, maybe he convinces his team to kill him again.

I seriously doubt Jack has that level of mastermind in him. There's too many moving pieces for you not to be Shep, and if he's scum he doesn't out the info...I seriously don't see how anyone who is scum shares that info.

Please save me for last. Please oh please oh please. Seriously, maybe I'm giving sprityo too much credit in thinking that he wouldn't reverse-track himself as it's an extremely bad use of a great power. He might be that dumb. I was dumb enough not to be on the gfish or Silver votes. But right now, my gut says Sprit tracked me and the only way that happens is if he's Reaper or neutral.

FWIW, Wilgy moved his vote to Sprityo.

I know that sprityo claimed that, but RTing oneself is inherently a weak idea. If you're killed or blocked or MDed in any way, your action is in effect wasted. I would think a solid player would know that even if powers aren't the norm here.

My more likely scenario is that sprit has been lightly after me since gfish was lynched, indicating that he thinks I'm Cereberus aligned. Saren of the Reapers has a one-shot tracking ability that I would say he hoped to catch me killing someone last night. Failing that, hoping to catch me in a lie about who I targeted would be an option. I'm on a lot of crap lists for being both quiet and not lynching folks who turned out to be scum. If he can waste a day lynching me, he can chalk it up to reads relatively easy as I'm not a terribly controversial lynch candidate at this point.

Bottom line, the action sprit claims to have taken is weak at best and I don't believe it for one minute. I think he's Saren or possibly Aria in the neutral segment.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Adam? Raven?

Anything at all ya'll would like to contribute?

Nope, nothing to see here. I voted for the null option simply to get my vote listed so I could see where the votes were. It wasn't showing up before and I didn't know who to vote for before. It will change soon.

I feel I'm having the opposite and same effect as Wilgy who I'm leaning more Civ now. He was instrumental in lynching gfish and also fairly helpful in catching Silver. Two opposite factions and now he's silenced. That speaks a lot toward Civ or a very convincing play as scum. I conversely failed miserably on both of those lynches being the useless Civ that I am.

Right now I'm going to put a vote on sprityo. While Sprit liked the answer I gave in that I targeted him, I don't know how he would have acquired that information short of being a Reaper or neutral. If I subscribe to Wilgy being town and making a recommendation against sprityo last day phase (I do), logic says to vote for sprityo.

sprityo wrote:Immortal_Raven

what did you do last night?

I went to church for Holy Week, then to Chic-Fil-A, then home. Put my kids to bed, hung out with my wife, took a shower, read a book, went to sleep.

In game, well I did target you.


Here's one thought. I know we had some discrepancy yesterday with silencing. Has anyone but Wilgy not checked in yet?

DrWilgy wrote:Interesting.

Now here's the question. Would civ LC throw away logical analysis for a vendetta?

Is a civ on a vendetta good to keep around?

Is this vendetta an excuse for non analysis baddie play?

Situationally good. A Civ with a vendetta who happens to be correct is a powerful ally. Vendettas do cloud judgement something awful though.

Fredwood wrote:I can't speak for Wilgy, but my guess is he's said all he will say. I'm pretty sure I can say what I think, but I would like confirmation (IE the spirit lynch), before I do.

I'm as confused as MP on this one. I don't see what is so excellent about a sprityo lynch and no one seems to be willing to explain it.

@TSP, what sort of response would you like? A weak lynch vote out of left field predicated almost entirely on my reaction to your post analysis on me which again, was taken out of context. I liked gfish's play. Someone else ferreted him out. I was wrong. You're overthinking it if you have any other theories about it.

My vote stays where it is. This assumption that Wilgy is overwhelmingly Civ is concerning. If someone wants to explain the sprit lynch, I'd be open to changing.

S~V~S wrote:

Adam wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Spoiler: show

Adam wrote:Pairs of players who are not mafia teammates:

Jack and Dom
Jack and SVS
Silver and SVS
Silver and Jack
Gfish and Epi
Long Con and Epi
Nifty and TSP
DrWilgy and gfish

Not as long of a list as I thought it would be.

I'm not sure what inspired this set of conclusions. Perhaps Adam can elaborate here.

I'm not sure what your question is. Do you think it's likely that any of the above are teammates together? I can go point by point if you want.

I think it's a cultural thing. Do you folk at HCR throw teammates under the bus early and often for distancing? That is fairly common here, so people who are aggressively sparring in thread could still be teammates. Like one game MP and I were teammates, and he was making a case on me from pretty much his first post. I personally am not a fan of that baddie playstyle, but it IS common here.

MP thinks you are suspicious for a possible cultural difference?

I know we've all done it, but a common thread amongst most of them was a quiet player. Throw a teammate under the bus because they're quiet and likely to be lynched anyway. Aggressive distancing is less common but still fairly regular.

I'm very willing to buy that adam is not gfish's teammate. But in a game with two scum groups, the standard of "OMG, he nailed that scummer he must be town" doesn't really apply.

Long Con wrote:

Fredwood wrote:I think Adam and I approach the game similarly, and a lot of his none gfish posts made a lot of sense or I agreed with reasoning and the line of logic and tact he took. I think this leads to my biggest problem with not picking him up when he's scum. I think with my inherent weakness of reading Adam, and the fact there is two mafia, I'm willing to temper my town read on Adam and go with consensus here if that's where we want to go, I just won't be a huge fan of it, and in a standard situation I wouldn't vote for him.

This paragraph felt super-wack when I first read it. I was like "Is this guy drunk?"

Then I said, "Wait - I'm a little drunk", and I went to read it again with you sounding like some intellectual. It held together a little better that way. I can't figure out what you meant to type for "and a lot of his none gfish posts made a lot of sense" because somethin' ain't right there. Help a brother out.

Not that I was considering accusing you of anything. You're, like, that Civ guy.

Seriously though, What the fuck is up with Wilgy fakeslipping to incriminate me? Why is no one even reacting in any way to that at all??!!!!

Am I being selfish, or overly sensitive? Is this, like, a common joke for everyone? I think that even the lamest fakeslip deserves a tiny bit of reaction in some way. I do not understand how there can be NOTHINGNOTHINGNOTHING said about it.

Ok, what does fakeslip mean? If it means intentionally throwing out a weird accusation or intentionally misinterpreting someone else's posts, then I've accused him of it multiple times.

Since my attempt at multi-quoting is failing.

@Epi, fair point about reliance on roleclaims versus post analysis. I just know I play better with the former so that's the way I play. I'm trying to get better at the other but it's still mostly guesswork.

I agree that adam does change up his playstyle a lot. I'd accuse him of laying back, but then I'd get pot-kettled. The hang-up I have with MP's analysis is it's all lumped up and thus taken a bit out of context. While the posts can come across as teammate-esque, they're all deposited right there in a single post to give maximum case to the argument. Going back and looking at single instances though doesn't change the interaction much. The posts still come across as teammate-esque, especially as gfish got into a bit more hot water.

Epignosis wrote:Honestly, Realms people, I think the over-reliance on role checks and role reveals and role this and role that is telling on you.

I could say the reverse about Syndicate folks. "So-and-so is exhibiting strong town behavior because of X, Y, and Z." All of that is subjective post analysis. I thought gfish was town because he was selling out pretty hard to get you lynched. That is fairly typical "town" behavior from him. It turned out to not be typical behavior from him.

The bottom line is there are many different ways to play. The chips fall where they may but saying one playstyle is inherently better than the other comes across as folly.

It sucks about Dom but again, one kill. To me, that says there is an info-based lead out there that is worth exploring.

Dom wrote:

Immortal_Raven wrote:Whelp, I was wrong about gfish again. Damnit.

Still not sure why Wilgy has it in his head that I'm somehow gfish's teammate. As much as I defended gfish, it was more about not liking Wilgy's read on gfish than outright defense. And then Wilgy did other stuff to piss me off like deliberately twisting what I said. Anyhow, I need to take a larger view as there are other players here.

If there's a connection between myself and Dom, I'm unaware of it. When did someone dream that up.

JoH is reading Civ to me. He's trying to respond to too many folks right now. He could sit back and let people go after others but he's trying a lot to dissuade suspicion when he doesn't need to. That reads more strongly Civ than either scum team in my book.

If we're guessing at gfish's teammates, Long Con and Silver fit for me. Silver is all over the board, very inconsistent. Long Con seemed to defend me and looking at my overall play, I think he's a scummer banking on me being Civ (I am) and looking good for not going after me.

Why did you civ read me?

Did I Civ read you. If I did, I'm really not sure why.

Whelp, I was wrong about gfish again. Damnit.

Still not sure why Wilgy has it in his head that I'm somehow gfish's teammate. As much as I defended gfish, it was more about not liking Wilgy's read on gfish than outright defense. And then Wilgy did other stuff to piss me off like deliberately twisting what I said. Anyhow, I need to take a larger view as there are other players here.

If there's a connection between myself and Dom, I'm unaware of it. When did someone dream that up.

JoH is reading Civ to me. He's trying to respond to too many folks right now. He could sit back and let people go after others but he's trying a lot to dissuade suspicion when he doesn't need to. That reads more strongly Civ than either scum team in my book.

If we're guessing at gfish's teammates, Long Con and Silver fit for me. Silver is all over the board, very inconsistent. Long Con seemed to defend me and looking at my overall play, I think he's a scummer banking on me being Civ (I am) and looking good for not going after me.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:Slightly annoyed that just about nobody is town reading Silver but nobody but me will vote for him.

Does anyone have any reason to think Silver is town? Any reason at all?

I'm having a hard time deciding between you, Silver, and Wilgy. I wouldn't put it past you and Silver in particular to be on opposing scum teams. Hence why I haven't voted for anyone of you yet. gfish just raised a good point about Silver and I'm wanting to see the response.

As for Wilgy, I answered gfish's questions. Just because you didn't like the answers doesn't mean I didn't answer the questions.

The only thing going for Wilgy right now in my book is he seems to be in attack mode as far as I'm concerned. It's very narrow but if he's got a suspicion, he's sticking to it and really bearing down. It's misguided and simply because I took exception to what he said early in the phase about gfish's play. I have two big hang-ups with him. First, saying that I'm not playing to win. A simple twist of my words to create suspicion. If he's doing all these calculated posts and buying town cred, his misinterpretation of what I said when I never expect to win was intentional, not incidental. Second, he claims I did not at all answer gfish's questions. Again, just because he didn't like what I gave, he feels that it's suspicious when I did actually answer the questions. He's twisting my words far too much and far too aggressively for my tastes.

DrWilgy wrote:

Immortal_Raven wrote:Hehe, joke's on you. I never enter a game expecting to win.

Like I said, different strokes.

Hmph. A civ that doesn't aim to win or a baddie. I could do without both of these.

Hey Fred, get Dizzy to vote Raven or Gfish. Ty.

I said I never expect to win, not that I wouldn't try. Big difference. Interesting how you've jumped to that particular conclusion.

I do think you're trying to bait me and I do think it's half-worked. However, this statement was a big leap in trying to lynch me or an outed power in gfish. I find both of those to be for poor reasons.

DrWilgy wrote:

Immortal_Raven wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:

sprityo wrote:

Immortal_Raven wrote:2. I still don't like Epignosis but that's because I hate time-wasting. If you have pressure, best to claim and help the town move to a better lynch candidate.

I actually have to disagree on this statement

Because before you know it, everyone is ripping their pants off and the game loses its suspense value really

I tend to think mafia is a high stakes game meant to be chance-y and claiming doesnt take ALL the fun out of it, but it's definitely a frowned upon thing

I disagree with both of you.

Answer this question: How would we use said roleclaimed role info?

Eliminate you from the list of suspects. Cross-check against other claims. Use a night action to verify if still suspicious. I tend to play more on info that gut or read. So if I've got a claim, that's a puzzle piece that I have. It's a black and white proposition in a game with 50 Shades of Grey (in keeping with the pants drop schtick) and that to me is very valuable, more valuable that a read I have on someone.

If that is true and you are civ, you will not win this game.

Hehe, joke's on you. I never enter a game expecting to win.

Like I said, different strokes.

DrWilgy wrote:

sprityo wrote:

Immortal_Raven wrote:2. I still don't like Epignosis but that's because I hate time-wasting. If you have pressure, best to claim and help the town move to a better lynch candidate.

I actually have to disagree on this statement

Because before you know it, everyone is ripping their pants off and the game loses its suspense value really

I tend to think mafia is a high stakes game meant to be chance-y and claiming doesnt take ALL the fun out of it, but it's definitely a frowned upon thing

I disagree with both of you.

Answer this question: How would we use said roleclaimed role info?

Eliminate you from the list of suspects. Cross-check against other claims. Use a night action to verify if still suspicious. I tend to play more on info that gut or read. So if I've got a claim, that's a puzzle piece that I have. It's a black and white proposition in a game with 50 Shades of Grey (in keeping with the pants drop schtick) and that to me is very valuable, more valuable that a read I have on someone.

S~V~S wrote:Who defines what constitutes the "main discussion"?

And we don't typically claim if we can avoid it.

I define it as to what I perceive. Feel free to disagree. Apparently, that's what mafia games are about.

And Epig, different strokes. You don't know my play preferences and I don't know yours. Not claiming under pressure is a trigger for me. It may not be for you and sprityo makes a good point about not claiming willy nilly. However, you were front and center with the votes on you. It was shit or get off the pot time in my mind.

gfishfunk wrote:since everyone is silent but I can see Immortal_Raven thumbing through the thread, I thought I would move my vote to him for pressure.

Immortal_Raven, three questions:

1. Why do you think there was one kill last night rather than two?

2. Who has been the scummiest this phase?

3. Who has been the least scummiest this phase?

Keep in mind, my vote in talk-incentive not hell-or-highwater lynch just yet.

Working on it. All of the color schemes for these boards are making my head hurt. Yes, I am recovering from surgery and not as lucid as I would like to be. 17 hours, 58 staples to close the wound. 2 titanium rods and 10 screws now permanently in my back all to remove a tumor about the size of a tube of toothpaste. But I digress.

1. I said there was one kill because one person died. That's math. I just don't see another attempt in the write-up. Given the game we both just played, that could be telling or not.

2. I still don't like Epignosis but that's because I hate time-wasting. If you have pressure, best to claim and help the town move to a better lynch candidate. It's not as bad under plurality voting, but still. I don't know his rep nor do half the players here.
Other suspicions are DrWilgy for calling out your play early.
Between SVS and JoH, I believe at least one is scum. They're taking pot shots at one another outside of the main discussion. I wouldn't mind seeing more there.
Adam and Nifty are making me a bit suspicious for helping clarify my situation. I can't tell if it's courtesy for a fellow Realmser or a "I know he's not scum, I'll give a somewhat town read and look good." They're at the bottom of my suspicion list.

3. Most town, gfish. Yes, I vomited a little bit there. It's too early for your power play if you're scum. I think you're like most Realms folks who will sell out if they're convinced they've caught scum. You'll probably get NKed soon, but a one for one trade in town and scum favors the town.
Fred and Dom are coming across as town reads as well. Fred for the claim and devil-may-care attitude. However, if I was going pure info dump, Fred trumps gfish slightly.

Long Con is all over the place for me. Half his posts make me think town. Half make me think "Hmmm, good cover".

DrWilgy wrote:I think it's safe to assume we will lynch a baddie if we choose either Gfish today, or Hazelnut Spread friend.

Discuss.

You just shot to my top list of suspects with this for the bit on gfish.

He put himself out there. We can discuss the likelihood of a second hit. Regardless, he claims to have blocked someone and strongly feels that he blocked a killer. It's a very likely town play as he has almost nothing to gain from that play as scum. A known blocking power and two dead protector rolls? Any scummer would be smart to hit him tonight. Nutella is a different story, but this theory makes me think you want us to lynch a blocker. Especially when you seemingly glossed over Epignosis, the blockee.

@ JoH Look at how it turned out. I'm doing a happy dance right now even with the red card I got yesterday.
For any curious parties: http://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showpost. ... tcount=963

Jackofhearts2005 wrote:

S~V~S wrote:

gfishfunk wrote:

Fredwood wrote:So Saren is in the game, I'm vanilla now.

Kinda sucks, not as much as EDI dying (sniff)

That a claim?

Also, what do you synidcatians do? We usually discuss the write-up for a bit (there isn't any), and pressure each other based on our night actions.

I'll be jumping in and out tonight but on a lot more tomorrow night.

Well, we often discuss who might have benefitted from his death. Reread his posts, figure out WHY he was the one killed. Taking a closer look at his suspects. Although that isn't always helpful if the killer killed for random reasons, or maybe kills people that never mentioned any members of the team.

But it's a starting point. After I catch up to my other game, I plan to reread Bob as a start.

Do we? In three games, I've basically never seen that.

I kinda get it. I mean, who wants Bob dead? Whoever he's after...or whoever wants to frame who he's after.

I've seen more meta discussions about it on the Syndicate but neither my saying that I wouldn't kill Silver (unofficially ambassadoring) in Phenom nor Epi saying he wouldn't kill Eloh (his wife, who he thinks he can pocket) in BvR got any kind of serious positive response. It's easy to say these things and then turn around and shoot that player anyway.

I would expect at least one Realmser on a mafia that shoots Bob, assuming it was in fact a mafia who shot Bob and assuming they did so on purpose. That's all I'm willing to bet from a meta perspective.

Safe bet, though since he was the only kill I would assume a mafia and I would heavily assume a conglomerate of Syndicate and Realmsers as scum. It tells me that anyone was fair game and that bob just happened to stand out. Fairly chatty, not someone who garners immediate night protection as a general rule among Realmsers, a safe kill.

The bigger question is which Realmser did it as part of the scum team.

Wow, mental note. Multiple games on different sites at once are a bad idea. Apologies for my absence.

Sucks about cbob, kinda figured he was town upon a reread. So much spam and spinning here it's hard to say where my suspicions lie. gfish and Nifty gave fairly accurate reads on me, right down to my love/hate with gfish. JoH thinks he can read me so I got to giggle there.

LC seemed to dominate the night discussion more as a subject for some reason. I'm still adjusting to night discussion so again, not sure what to say. My gut says it's a smoke screen.

Fredwood would be making me twitch right now. Like he feels the need to compensate for missing a phase. The only hang-up is his claim and the role structure.

I need to reread some posts from some folks.

Huh, so we just pick someone and go with it? Are we allowed to change our votes once we pick?

DrWilgy wrote:W-W-W-Walnuts, peanuts, pineapple smells, grapes, melons, oranges, and coconut shells!

You found part of my old Jungle Juice recipe. Oh how I miss that stuff.

Not first. Not trying to be first. Actually surprised that there aren't more posts.