The Syndicate

Sorry for the delay, first chance to really get here. I'm voting Timmer

Whatever Epi. I have to be up in six hours, so I am going to bed. Do what you want.

Yeah, I think you are wrong. Even if your civ you're not all knowing.

Keep reading there big boy, I've said exactly why I think she is suspicious from the time I started engaging on Day 3. Before that I was hardly here because of RL.

Epi, I've made plenty of independent reads on people. I have been waiting in hopes of seeing a concensus form so that we aren't splitting the vote up, but apparently I am the only one that cares, so I'll vote the person I have said for some time would be my number one choice and let you do whatever you all want.

elohcin[/i]

Epignosis wrote:

Spacedaisy wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:It bothers me that the only person wanting to murk DF is Scotty. I'll vote there.

I can't even. we seriously now have four people with votes?

Are you really that bothered by spread votes when nobody has really talked all day?

You can't even?

What did you expect? People to come in here and make up your mind for you?

Spacedaisy.

No, I expected that people would be a little more interested in a consensus considering the position we are in.

Whatever, you all don't care clearly

DrWilgy wrote:It bothers me that the only person wanting to murk DF is Scotty. I'll vote there.

I can't even. we seriously now have four people with votes?

Epignosis wrote:

Elohcin wrote:votes are changeable, right?

They are.

Good to know

Elohcin wrote:sorry for the multiple posts. I just don't to vote with you and then have it stuck there is I have to save myself. not that I will probably be away at the time.

According to the first post they are not, which is why I've been waiting

I suppose my list of possibilities at the moment is Elo, Scotty, and for lack of any good read on him, DF. I don't see much merit in the Wilgy case, and despite you acting like a crazy mofo, I still think the case for you being civ is strongest. timmer is obviously one of the three.

I already have a pretty strong opinion of her myself, I'm asking because your opinion of her can inform what I think about you. Right now we are operating under the assumption that MM targeted you, but we don't know that 100% and I don't understand what you are doing right now, so yeah I'd like to understand what you are thinking.

Epi, you are really confusing me. Now you don't think Elo is bad?

WTF, seriously guys? We have three different people with 1 vote each at LYLO?

Epignosis wrote:Why should I think you are a civilian?

Because I am? It's a good question without a great answer given my failure leading a lynch against INH, who flipped good. I wish I could point to something that proves I am civ, unfortunately there is no such thing for me. But I have been trying to hunt baddies as best I can. What can I say?

Scotty wrote:Every single player in this game has posted suspicion of Elo (except maybe timmer, but who cares), so if she is bad, then a baddie has already started the bussing. SD's last rainbow list had timmer and INH at the bottom tier, and Sorsha/DF and Elo as the 2nd lowest. I wish she would come back and give her updated thoughts now that DF has subbed in.

If Elo is good, the baddies would be fine using her as the bait.

I was pretty confident in my read of INH, it's why I had him as low as timmer. Unfortunately I was wrong. I was pretty clear though that Elo was my next suspicion. Sorsha/DF was really that low because I had no read on her whatsoever, and unfortunately I can't say it has changed much with DF, I have a hard time reading him in general. He almost always reads good to me. So I tend to keep him on my list for that fact. I haven't posted as much because my thoughts have not changed much. I'm fairly sold on an Elo vote today. I'm only waiting because I want to be sure we don't split the vote. It's pretty critical at this point.

Bad Wilgy seems to play up his mysterious/unpredictable persona to me. The Wilgy I am seeing here seems like he is actually trying. I dunno.

Epi, I can see your case against Wilgy but I went down that road with INH (pursuing a seeming teammate connection) and was very wrong. Plus his actions have read very civ to me. I have yet to see anything from him that reads like a bad Wilgy to me.

Elo is someone I would be interested in possibly pursuing today though. You've made the same point I have regarding the shady nature of her vote for Indi and lack of reason for it.

DFaraday wrote:From what I've gleaned through a quick look over the thread, I would be most supportive of an Elo or Scotty lynch. Elo, for bandwagoning, and Scotty for trying to push a Wilgy lynch. I don't see any reason for Wilgy to be up for lynching. DDL looks good to me right now as well. Daisy is reading very neutral to me, like usual.

LOL, I think you and I almost always read each other neutral, why is that?

Maybe I should have said welcome back...

a2thezebra wrote:

DFaraday wrote:Pick meeeeeee...........

Effective immediately, DFaraday has replaced Sorsha.

Welcome!

meh.

Scotty wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Did we know about Kilgrave at the time INH?

Also the fact that INH thought votes were changable when that post was made makes me feel alittle better.

Agreed.

I also think that if INH flips bad, it may not be a bad idea like you said to murk Sorsha. I think Elo has more going against her however, like this late bandwagon vote.

I agree with this.

I don't know Wilgy, I'm not sure when what info was revealed since I wasn't engaged at the start.

I don't think the case is BS. I still think you have acted the most like what I would expect a timmer teammate to act like. It's just your seeming sincerity right now that is worrying me.

Sorry, I read some of this at work, but couldn't respond until now. So here we go...

insertnamehere wrote:

Spacedaisy wrote:First is INH/Timmer: If I am forced to choose between INH and Wilgy who both seem to think the other is bad, I would choose INH as bad and Wilgy as Civ. Wilgy's behavior reads very much civ to me, and I feel like he was low hanging fruit on Day 1 because he really drove the Day 1 lynch. Timmer's response read angry to me, and INH seems to have a bit of remorse. It looks like he might have placed a distancing vote that bit him in the ass. If Timmer is Kilgrave then he is the logical choice for a distancing vote on Day 1. The thing that really caught my eye though was this kind of innocuous post:

Not really sure how I can respond to this other than saying that my randomization was genuine, even if you don't believe the screenshot. So was my remorse after Wilgy decided to jump on Timmer at the last second.

insertnamehere wrote:Welp. Not really sure what to make of that. Timmer most likely has a power role, not sure if that means anything for his alignment.

Timmer, are you surprised at your pardoning?

The highlighted caught my eye because I found the wording to be off. Most people who don't know why someone didn't die would ask, "Are you surprised you didn't die?" Or perhaps, "Do you know why you didn't die?" But INH jumped straight to pardon, which implies a Civ reason for surviving a lynch usually. Pardoning is most often the mechanic used by a Mayor role. So to me it read like he either pardoned Timmer himself or he wanted to frame it as Civ as possible without defending him. Add in the fact I find his Day 1 behavior to be odd and it brings me to the conclusion there is a possible baddie connection there.

Oh boy. The "he used a specific word that implies that he's a baddie" argument.

To give you an inner working into my vocabulary and word choice, the reason I went with pardoning is because in Mad Max, the other game that I'm playing right now, pardons have been featured very prominently, and usually seem to involve myself. I guess I just had pardons on the brain. I also wanted to give Timmer an opportunity to defend himself because I felt he had been unfairly jumped upon earlier.



If that one word choice means that I must be scum, by all means...

Regarding the word "pardon" I haven't followed Mad Max at all, so I had no clue about that. No, one word does not make you a baddie, it was just something that seemed to add to what the other things seemed to be saying to me. However, your explanation makes sense and I get it.

insertnamehere wrote:

insertnamehere wrote:

timmer wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:Hey Timmer, what character are you?

Someone named Ruben. You?

Hmm.

http://marvelcinematicuniverse.wikia.com/wiki/Ruben

Ruben was some annoying "nice guy" weirdo who had a freaky, incest-y relationship with his sister, and lived in the same building as Jessica Jones. He died at the hands of the main villain in episode four and was generally a very minor character.

Considering the very limited number of power roles, I struggle to think of why Ruben would be one of them and be given invulnerability.

I think Timmer is:

A. Lying to protect a powerful civ role, like Kilgrave, Trish, or Luke
B. Lying to protect his real baddie power role.
C. Lying about knowing why he survived the lynch.

I think C is very unlikely.

Please discuss.

I'd like to make the people who think I'm buddy buddy with Timmer to explain away this post

Pretty straightforward. Look you voted Timmer "randomly" on D1. But then when Wilgy throws a vote on him, suddenly you're making a case for him instead. It really looks like you placed a distancing vote and then turned around and latched onto the low hanging fruit on D1 to me. If you can't see why I might think that about your D1 actions, then I don't know what to tell you dude. Call it hollow all you want but it was what struck me as suspicious.

Also this post doesn't clear anything, you called Kilgrave a civ role, which we now know is not at all the case. So you aligned the Kilgrave role with the civ side. Yeah you threw out some reasoning that could cast doubt on him, but I already believed you to be distancing from him, so that doesn't surprise me at all.

Your posts have me doubting what I felt pretty confident about before this, but I am all in already. Sorry if I am wrong, but I voted according to how it looked to me.

I might have waited longer, but this post

DrWilgy wrote:3 hours left until I vote for INH or Eloh.

Who should I vote out of these 2?

made me think the vote ended earlier than it did. I apologize for jumping the gun guys, hoping it didn't just bite us in the ass.

Also finding it really interesting that some people were all agreeing with my assessment of what I was reading in my catch up, and now suddenly I'm on their list for the exact same reason they were agreeing with me before. Yeah...

Linki: INH, votes are not changeable right now.

Ah well... you do you Wilgy.

DrWilgy wrote:

Scotty wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:

Scotty wrote:Holla

INh

If INH flips bad, I'll lynch Scotty for not underlining his name.

Oh shit. Sorry

INH

I'm going to campaign against both Daisy and Scotty for not spelling out inh's full name underlined.

LMAO. I didn't realize that it mattered if I didn't spell it out completely. So to set your mind at ease..

insertnamehere

Epignosis wrote:

Spacedaisy wrote:Epi, I take it from this that you suspect Wilgy?

I guess. I'm not really paying attention.

LOL, fair enough. At least you're honest.

Epi, I take it from this that you suspect Wilgy?

Well, I've made no secret of my suspicion of INH. He's still my leading suspect so I'm voting INH

lol, sorry I didn't even look at the timestamps, I just assumed it was because DDL corrected you. Either way, like I said I believe you were most likely just making a mistake. I doubt you are baddie, but these couple things just make me less sure than I am about Wilgy and Epi. That's all. I'm really looking at INH and Elo right now.

Elohcin wrote:I think I have come to this conclusion myself as well. I think I know why he may have done it. I cannot reveal it at this time, I don't think. But perhaps later. As for now...I am not looking hard at him. I am having a hard time deciding who I don't trust. Wilgy would be top of my list just b/c of responses and overall tone...but of course I have shared this before. I think I can trust Scotty this game. Timmer is being helpful and I think I can trust him. DF, though he hasn't posted a whole lot seems civ to me. Heck maybe Epi was right and indiglo is bad. Or possibly one of the baddies is a low poster.

@Daisy....have fun with your guest. Anyone we know?

Elo, I was doing an ISO of you to see if I could figure out what others were seeing that I am missing and I found this gem, could you explain the highlighted bit?

After doing an ISO on Elo I can see why she might be a suspect.

Elohcin wrote:hmm. Sorry Indiglo. Epi seems so authoritative to me for some reason. Then when his reasons matched my thoughts.....well....sorry.

She puts responsibility for her vote for Indi onto Epi, saying he matched her own thoughts but she had never voiced any suspicion of Indi except to say "Heck maybe Epi is right about Indi" one time.

I think I still lean INH as my strongest suspect based on what seems like teammate connection with Elo coming in second for her blendy behavior.

Does the vote end at the time the poll says or is it weird again?

Sure.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Timmer is as good as confirmed scum at this point. Even disregarding MM's hint, what is the chance two players can survive lynches in a classic game? I mean...

I'm not feeling the INH lynch right now. I think for a bad, he is trying too hard to piss people off. Ive cpme to learn bads in this site are seldom obvious like that, and in general try to be likable way more than IHN are rigt now.

Im feeling Epi and Elo as bad though. Maybe Scotty or Sorsha, but mostly the former two. Eloh for the reasons Daisy said, Epi because I can totally see him and timmer bussing each other like that, especially in a game where timmer should be expecting to be confirmed bad at any point. Then again, the fact he was expecting to be confirmed adds a thick layer of wifom to all his interactions with other people.

DDL here accepts that timmer is most likely Kilgrave, but overlooks the fact that if MM targeted Epi as his top suspect with his one shot kill and insterad of it killing Epi it killed MM himself, then we can pretty much assume Epi is civ. He even put a vote on Epi, though he believed at the time votes were changeable. I think it might be either a mistake or else the belief that MM didn't target Epi. Either way, I don't feel like I would call DDL bad, just not as confident in my earlier civ read there.

Scotty wrote:Okie dokie. Good try, MM.

So we still know nothing of Epi's alignment except if he is bad he has to be Kilgrave. Whoever that is.

I don't want to jump on timmer just yet, but I would fathom that in no way is he Kilgrave.

Let's look at this logically. Would zebra give a bad timmer the ability to lynch stop AND have a baddie that can't die until his minions are dead? I think that's overkill in favor of he baddies. I think timmer is a civvie role.

For all intents and purposes, in this heist game, we've basically already been given info on all 3 power roles, and none of them are protective or investigative. MM was our vigi, timmer could stop a lynch (maybe just his own) and the baddie godfather is fucking lynch proof until the others die before him. I almost feel Kilgrave is TOO OP in this small game, and therefore (now that I've typed out this logic) that we must assume timmer is civ. This is going to turn into simple deduction at this point.

Timmer, would you feel comfortable saying who your role is?

Elohcin wrote:DF was killed AND MM is dead?

Yes. Do you have anything else to add to discussion, fair Elo?

Scotty had this quasi-defense of timmer, but then followed it up with:

Scotty wrote:Ohhhhhh I just blundered in my logic. Damned morning logic before coffee.

Timmer could very well be Kilgrave. Sorry bout that, DDL.

Basically ignore what I just said defending timmer. He's definitely scum.

after DDL pointed out the flaw in his logic. I really think this was just mistake, but it's not the first time he has soft defended timmer:

Scotty wrote:

indiglo wrote:@ timmer - Are you surprised you survived the lynch? Do you know why you survived?


The way timmer was posting after the poll was closed and before the post went up struck me as very civ, off hand. But hearing from him about it will be helpful.

See, I saw it as a person that knew they were going to be looked at as civ on the flip, and not necessarily an actual civ. I think he knew he was going to survive, and because the roles are hidden, his anonymity is a strong boon for his game. I know it would be if he were bad, shoving blame at Wilgy.

Granted, I'm feeling less than great about the prospects of Wilgy being civ.

Whether timmer is a civ or mafia aligned, he is definitely a power role. The other option is a possible 3rd party lynch pardon, but that would be a wasteful use on day 1 without info and I'm willing to rule that out completely.

Again, I don't feel sold on his being bad though, just not as confident on his being civ as I am about you and Epi.

And that is why Rainbow list should only be use by professionals like Jay, MP and ... anyone but me apparently.

Uh, I think I messed up the colors somehow... let me fix that:

Epi
Wilgy
Scotty
DDL
Sorsha
Elo
INH
timmer

Sorry about that lol

Assuming Epi really was MM's target, I can't see why anyone would still suspect him at this point. I mean the most likely reason he would not have died is because he is civ, given the fact we have already seen timmer survive a lynch and the most likely explanation of that is Kilgrave.

Given this I don't see any reason to keep him on my baddie reads. Elo was on there because I felt like she was defending Epi. Can someone outline their suspicion of her now?

I still see INH as a likely timmer teammate. Three reasons. First he randomized timmer on Day 1. If timmer was likely to survive a lynch and he knew it, best thing to do is distance early. Second, he pushed hard the idea that Wilgy was bad for voting timmer after he himself voted timmer. He went for the low hanging fruit IMO. Third, the question about pardoning still stands out to me, it seems like an unusual way to ask a pretty normal question.

I would revise my reads (this time in rainbow list) as follows:
Epi
Wilgy
Scotty
DDL
Sorsha
Elo
INH
timmer

Scotty and DDL have both made a couple blunders in the last 24 hours that have raised my eyebrow, so I dropped them a bit. I believe they are most likely civ just making a mistake but I don't feel as confident in my civ read of them as I do about Epi and Wilgy right now. Sorsha is orange by POE at the moment. If my civ reads are right, anyway.

To be clear, I'm leaning INH as a Timmer teammate rather than Epi and Elo, considering the night post.

DrWilgy wrote:Welcome back Daisy.

So I say we lynch Eloh 2.0 on the premise that she is Timmer's teammate.

Where did you see a connection between Elo 2.0 and Timmer?

I saw what appeared to be a connection between Elo 2.0 and Epi or Timmer and INH personally.

Well I caught up on the whole thread. And I actually have some reads as a result. As I am writing this post I am going back to try and refresh my mind with what I read in ISO because I wasn't compiling a post as I did my catch up. I wish I had. Anyway, here goes...

Reading Civ:
Wilgy
DDL
Scotty

Reading Bad:
INH
Timmer
Elo
Epi

No read at all/Absent:
Sorsha

So to give some explanation...

I will start first with my baddie reads. The thing about these is that they are not in isolation. I don't feel like any of them have done something that makes them look bad alone, but I have seen what appears to be ties, possible teammate actions IMO.

First is INH/Timmer: If I am forced to choose between INH and Wilgy who both seem to think the other is bad, I would choose INH as bad and Wilgy as Civ. Wilgy's behavior reads very much civ to me, and I feel like he was low hanging fruit on Day 1 because he really drove the Day 1 lynch. Timmer's response read angry to me, and INH seems to have a bit of remorse. It looks like he might have placed a distancing vote that bit him in the ass. If Timmer is Kilgrave then he is the logical choice for a distancing vote on Day 1. The thing that really caught my eye though was this kind of innocuous post:

insertnamehere wrote:Welp. Not really sure what to make of that. Timmer most likely has a power role, not sure if that means anything for his alignment.

Timmer, are you surprised at your pardoning?

The highlighted caught my eye because I found the wording to be off. Most people who don't know why someone didn't die would ask, "Are you surprised you didn't die?" Or perhaps, "Do you know why you didn't die?" But INH jumped straight to pardon, which implies a Civ reason for surviving a lynch usually. Pardoning is most often the mechanic used by a Mayor role. So to me it read like he either pardoned Timmer himself or he wanted to frame it as Civ as possible without defending him. Add in the fact I find his Day 1 behavior to be odd and it brings me to the conclusion there is a possible baddie connection there.

Elo/Epi: I don't think I need quotes to explain why I see a connection here. Elo 1.0 found him suspicious. Elo 2.0 seemed to do everything she could to excuse his behavior without outright saying she didn't suspect him anymore. But, the suspicion of these two is lessened for me by the most recent Night post. Odds are better in Epi's favor to be civ at this point given MM's death. And higher for Timmer to be Kilgrave, so the first connection looks more suspicious to me than this one at this point. But I don't feel like I can completely dismiss it either.

My civ read explanation:

DDL: Everything I saw from him looked like genuine attempts to baddie hunt. I don't know that I saw a single thing that looks suspiscious here.

Wilgy: I think I already mentioned this but Wilgy's Day 1 looked incredibly civ to me. And the response he got to his vote for timmer only made me feel even more like that was the case. He was low hanging fruit for some baddies if ever I saw it. I would say this is my most confident civ read in the game right now.

Scotty: Similar to DDL, Scotty's overall posts seem to genuine baddie hunting. There is something in his posts that make me less confident though, but I can't put my finger on what. I don't suspect him, but I am least confident in this civ read of all three.

No read on Sorsha since she is absent. And while I am not averse to voting people who are absent in general, I think we have enough to go on for now to leave her be until she gets back from vacation. Especially given the fact I myself was absent before this, lol.

There you go, those are all my thoughts after my catch up.

I apologize for being absent. We have a guest, and I am working at the same time. I don't think I will be back tomorrow either, going to spend the day in Austin and watch the election results in the evening, probably while consuming large quantities of hard liquor. Wed however, I will be all in.

I've missed you Wilgy!

I'm here. At least I think I'm here... mostly anyhow.