The Syndicate

My preference for a lynch as of now is Fractal, if that wasn’t clear. I don’t see how anyone town could read D2 and not come to the conclusion that something is fishy there.

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:55 pm One thing Colin’s post lacks is a lot of voting context. This isn’t necessarily unfair, because context is bullsuit that enables people to talk their way out of suspicious activity. I like pure vote analysis. But it does mean people should do their own reading.

Colin, you named the people whose behaviour looked worst, but other than speed who did you think looked actively good?

You won’t like this but I struggle to read TH bad in that context. Other than that most people are suspects or dead.

Golden wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:18 pm Colin good analysis generally but just noting you have your numbers go wrong somewhere along the way because I shifted it from 6-6 to 7-5. That may or may not shift your thinking if any of your analysis is based on how close things are. Is it possible some votes Nutella without saying so I’m the thread?

I’ll read back to test whether I think you’ve been thorough but reading through your post, fractal looks really bad.

Yeah it’s definitely possible I messed up somewhere or votes were made without posts.

Dom wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:17 am imo collin's timeline makes himself and sig look the worst.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:30 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:57 am Golden vs. TH feels civ-civ to me. More like clashing playstyles or base logic than anything scummy.

More like I'm calling him on his meta.

explain pls

And what about Fractal?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:20 am Coliniscool
Fractal
Kylemii
Dom 2.0
Marmot
Niju
Golden
sig
speedchuck
TH

I want everyone in the game to POE me down to half of this list. Ignore everyone else's halves. Soon as you see this post, POE 5 players out of it.

And don't leave Kylemii in the list. That would just be stupid.

Fractal
Marmot
Niju
Golden
Sig

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:10 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:04 am Colin says his vote is staying on Nutella, fine with LC lynch

See this, here at the end. This does not look great.

It's textbook: "I don't want to switch, because that looks like I know LC is scum and I'm trying to get credit. But not being on the train looks bad too. I'll split the difference."

I know it makes me look bad. I included it so that people would see my transparency in compiling all that. People can use their judgment to see if it makes me look worst, but I’m telling you right now, lynch me and the town is not helped.

If there are any holes in that too like I said let me know.

I have reread all of Day 2 in order to figure out who may have been redirecting away from the Long Con lynch. I urge you, if you are interested in catching scum, to read this list alongside the events in another window. I tried to be as thorough as possible but I may have missed some votes from dead civs or other things that didn't ping me so please poke at this and engage with it.

Sig votes for INH to start the day.

Colin votes for Nutella.

Luna cases Long Con successfully and places the initial vote (3-way tie at 1)

Speed writes reads of most players in the game, but not Long Con.

Sig places LC as “light scum” and invites him to say more.

Fractal places him in “not talking orange” on the readlists and votes Nutella. (2 nutella) Turnip Head expresses satisfaction at this suspicion

Speed votes for lapluie.

Nutella votes for lapluie (2-2 nutella lap)

Speed urges a “convincing” of LC and others

Sig votes for Long Con (2-2-2 Long Con tied)

Luna votes for nutella (3 nutella)

Vompatti votes for speed

Speed votes for Long Con (3-3 nutella and LC)

Fractal says Long Con lynch is “not terrible” but says he wants to lynch someone who has “done something”

Nutella votes LC (4 LC)

Kyle asks for an evaluation of LC’s recent civ meta

Speed prods for a possible suspicion of juliets, can’t make up mind over Nutella

Fractal focuses on Nutella again

Golden asks for thoughts on nut vs. LC

Golden answers Kyle’s previous question

Fractal asks people about lapluie

Nijuu gives LC a “mixed alignment” but votes Nutella (4-4)

Golden calls lap a mystery

Kyle says nutella looks worse but ultimately shrugs

Luna voices moving her vote back, moves (5-3 LC)

Fractal urges pressure on nutella in response to this

Kyle offers a sort-of-defense of LC

Golden votes for Nutella (5-4 LC)

Speed floats Vompatti + Scotty

Fractal urges nut, again, in response to speed

Speed endorses LC lynch

Scotty votes LC (6-4 LC)

Golden reads LC ISO and comes back befuddled

INH votes LC (7-4)

Colin says his vote is staying on Nutella, fine with LC lynch

Golden hems and haws a little but votes Long Con, leaving door open for someone else (8-3)

Kyle stays on nut, but is not opposed to LC

Biggest conclusions: I think speed looks fine in here. I don’t see him tying things with Long Con at 3-3 unless it was a deliberate bus strategy of the team’s, which may also condemn sig. I don’t like sig’s early stances toward LC, feels like distancing and even prodding for him to defend himself so as to make a “better judgment” (something I do as scum), and he also ties things at 2-2. Fractal has an obvious focus on Nutella which I can understand but he actively attempts to redirect the lynch away from LC and onto nutella at several times. Golden may be teammate compatible and attempted to earn a tad goodwill by bussing an inactive teammate. Nijuu looks like soft distancing again but trying to tip things toward Nutella. Kyle’s actions to me point toward being possibly teammate compatible but I still think he’s town so maybe this is an exercise in futility.

My 3 Long Con teammates based on this are most likely Fractal, Nijuu and Golden/Sig. I urge you to lynch one of them tomorrow.

Golden vs. TH feels civ-civ to me. More like clashing playstyles or base logic than anything scummy.

Yeah it looks rather big on my phone but that’s what she said

I will read your essay tomorrow Golden I promise but my eyes are refusing to let me do it right now

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:26 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:22 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:52 pm I have a question about every player in the game; they aren't just for the players themselves, anyone can answer. I'm answering these myself too, but interested in opinions.

Colin - Has Colin ever actively pushed against lynching a known townie?
Fractal - How suspicious is sticking on Scotty in the scotty lynch now that we know inh is town?
Kyle - is there any reason to doubt the consensus read? (no there isn't. I just didn't want Kyle to feel left out).
Dom - am I correctly picking up on what Lapluie was putting down?
Marmot - am I wrong that very quiet Marmot is very rarely town?
Niju - where'd she go on day 5?
sig - what should we make of sig being on the eventual lynch every time, usually as an early adopter?
speed - who would speed's teammates be if he were bad?
TH - Why does TH see Fractal's attempt at isos as more suspicion that, say, Colins? (More generic version of this same question - is TH being purposefully myopic)

Bonus question for colin, Fractal, TH, niju... is their nutella vote suspicious?

And someone should ask a question about me.

What is a “known townie”?

Everyone who was lynched and came back town and everyone who was nked (yes, I know we have a redirector and secrets so there is an outside chance of misinformation - but for the sake of this analysis, I think it's appropriate to assume they all are town).

I pushed against lynching Scotty pretty hard.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:44 pm

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:36 pmIn the mean time, I welcome the backup you requested, and ask them to form their view on whether or not I'm right. Also you just said you had the same suspects as me (Colin, Fractal, Marmot) and then called Colin for back up, so what do you think about colin exactly?

I called Colin for backup because he knows I'm a big flippy flopper. He also seems to have an analytical brain for this sorta shit so I wanna see if I can rent him as a bloodhound

I like the cut of your jib this game. Good vibes. Golden absolutely could be scum but I don’t know if he’d defend Fractal on the same team. I don’t like the end of that post where he shifts the convo to me either, it stood out as a deflection from your line of inquiry. I bet Sig is bad too. Pretty damn tired though so I’ll have to reread all this.

Golden wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:52 pm I have a question about every player in the game; they aren't just for the players themselves, anyone can answer. I'm answering these myself too, but interested in opinions.

Colin - Has Colin ever actively pushed against lynching a known townie?
Fractal - How suspicious is sticking on Scotty in the scotty lynch now that we know inh is town?
Kyle - is there any reason to doubt the consensus read? (no there isn't. I just didn't want Kyle to feel left out).
Dom - am I correctly picking up on what Lapluie was putting down?
Marmot - am I wrong that very quiet Marmot is very rarely town?
Niju - where'd she go on day 5?
sig - what should we make of sig being on the eventual lynch every time, usually as an early adopter?
speed - who would speed's teammates be if he were bad?
TH - Why does TH see Fractal's attempt at isos as more suspicion that, say, Colins? (More generic version of this same question - is TH being purposefully myopic)

Bonus question for colin, Fractal, TH, niju... is their nutella vote suspicious?

And someone should ask a question about me.

What is a “known townie”?

My current thinking is to look at who tried to steer away from the LC lynch, even if just a little.

Well, I got nothing. Scum are doing a pretty good job letting us fuck each other up.

My thoughts, others have offered theirs:

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:05 pm Here’s mine for INH:

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:55 pm If INH is bad we can probably effectively clear these people: Speed, Golden, Kyle, nutella, all of whom voted for him.

We would also want to look most severely at Fractal and Nijuu for late votes on Scotty/not breaking the tie. Other Scotty voters were sig and Dom. I voted with Scotty on Nijuu and can accept being slotted with them.

TH and Marmot voted elsewhere. I’m inclined to think scum had spread votes out so I want people to make GTH of which is scum between them.

If INH isn’t bad, start from somewhere else.

If he’s town I think you just unclear people to the degree you’re comfortable with. A Fractal/nijuu team thing looks more plausible there maybe.

2 hours to the lynch and a majority of votes have yet to be cast.

sig wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 4:15 pm What why lynching INH tell us if he's mafia?
What will it tell us if he isn't?

It’s pretty thoroughly outlined in other pages. My gut tells me you are asking questions you already know the answers to.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:40 pm There is no night 5 yet

Yeah I realized this just now too. Kind of interesting that they’re happening this phase.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:41 pm I think we have things narrowed down to the point that INH's alignment will tell us where to go next, either way.

I am really hoping he’s scum because if not I have considerably less to go from.

Y’all know you gotta vote right

I think it’s pretty likely that Ramses reacted to their own posts at some point in the game to throw people off the scent. Either N1 or N3. My guess would be Marmot, Turnip Head, Blooper, Speed or INH. Not Golden because nova was inactive. Maybe not even Marmot then unless he’s been around more than I think.

N3:

Golden
Nutella
Speed
Kyle
Insertnamehere

N5:

Dom
Fractal

So these people appeared “cursed” by Ramses N1:

DDL
LC
Fractal
Marmot
TH
Blooper

Fractal, there was quite a bit of talk about you in the last phase so if you have time check it out.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:50 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:46 am

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:41 am @ColinIsCool what do you think overall of fractal recently

He hasn’t even acknowledged the charges against him which is very bold. If INH is scum I don’t think putting that ISO together precludes him from bussing him. But until we have INH figured out, it’s all theory.

But like isn't it weird that he sorta just came in with two breakdowns on INH and Marmot and then sorta scurried away again? Like he was gaguing the temperature of the thread, in a way? In like a naughty way?

Yes, I can see that. I admit this is a pretty severe turnaround on Fractal but circumstantially it makes sense.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 9:41 am @ColinIsCool what do you think overall of fractal recently

He hasn’t even acknowledged the charges against him which is very bold. If INH is scum I don’t think putting that ISO together precludes him from bussing him. But until we have INH figured out, it’s all theory.

Fractal wrote: ↑Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:47 am (for example if most dead towns had a townread on someone, that's likely correct, and if several of them share a suspicion, we should take a better look that that person)

Mmmmm I dunno about that. Most townies are wrong most of the time and most scum teams aren’t transparent enough to kill someone just for suspecting them (WIFOM I guess). Someone can try but I’m leery.

I have to wonder just what the hell the utility of Ramses doing that is.

Also...

sig wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:21 pm I won't lie nutella dying is good for the civs.
It means she wasn't mafia and we can look back at d1 and d2 with fresh eyes.

We have two paths right now.

1. We need to 180 and the top civ reads are really mafia
2. We just start weed whacking out inactives/semi active ppl who have done suspicious stuff.

Sorry for tunneling you so hard nutella, but your death will not be in vain.

[VOTE: INH] aubergine

I feel pretty good about this one. Open to other options, but his vote on the LC lynch now looks like it could have been a late bus for civ credit and if he’s out we can possibly figure out yesterday easier. Add the rest of his behavior in the thread and I feel good.

I can remove nutella from suspicion (as much as I can clear you) if you’re really going to clear her that thoroughly. I’m looking most at INH, Fractal, Sig, Dom, Marmot and Nijuu, I think.

Why does everyone trust nutella when I can’t?

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:51 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:02 pm I can’t easily cut that quote up, so — I already addressed Blooper’s alleged suspicions of me. I think it’s pretty clear why my ideas move where they do but she goes out of her way to prop it up as arbitrary.

I hesitate to “no u” when it feels like a “no u” because at the base of it is bad play: “I’m obviously a civ, so you can’t legitimately suspect me, so you must be scum!” I try to reject that impulse when it occurs to me that it’s happening unless it helps to amplify or clarify other feelings.

What's different about the nutella wagon you've abandoned?

Bolded. (In other terms “unless I suspect the person for other reasons.”)

Here’s mine for INH:

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:55 pm If INH is bad we can probably effectively clear these people: Speed, Golden, Kyle, nutella, all of whom voted for him.

We would also want to look most severely at Fractal and Nijuu for late votes on Scotty/not breaking the tie. Other Scotty voters were sig and Dom. I voted with Scotty on Nijuu and can accept being slotted with them.

TH and Marmot voted elsewhere. I’m inclined to think scum had spread votes out so I want people to make GTH of which is scum between them.

If INH isn’t bad, start from somewhere else.

If he’s town I think you just unclear people to the degree you’re comfortable with. A Fractal/nijuu team thing looks more plausible there maybe.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:03 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:51 pm TH

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:36 pm By fishy agenda I guess I mean it feels like he's being opportunistic with when/what he posts, as opposed to a more open-stance sort of supatown vibe.

I assume this is still your reason for suspecting fractal?

yeah but I'm sure I'm not describing it very well :-/

I'll ISO and revisit my thoughts at some point

I understand it. He’s poking and prodding but not doing a lot in the way of pushing the last few phases as if he’s content to let things play out between dueling tow ies.

And I’m not gonna repeat myself for why I voted Blooper when I’ve ISO’d her and provided rationale in the post where I vote. Go read it.

I can’t easily cut that quote up, so — I already addressed Blooper’s alleged suspicions of me. I think it’s pretty clear why my ideas move where they do but she goes out of her way to prop it up as arbitrary.

I hesitate to “no u” when it feels like a “no u” because at the base of it is bad play: “I’m obviously a civ, so you can’t legitimately suspect me, so you must be scum!” I try to reject that impulse when it occurs to me that it’s happening unless it helps to amplify or clarify other feelings.

I also don’t want this INH thing to just be a done deal, though, so if anybody has any other ideas, shoot.

I’m sorry I called you guys masturbators.

I say “probably” because I can see a scumteam living with bussing INH for civ cred (or rolling the dice on voting there) if he isn’t playing, but with LC gone already, that’s certainly less likely.

If INH is bad we can probably effectively clear these people: Speed, Golden, Kyle, nutella, all of whom voted for him.

We would also want to look most severely at Fractal and Nijuu for late votes on Scotty/not breaking the tie. Other Scotty voters were sig and Dom. I voted with Scotty on Nijuu and can accept being slotted with them.

TH and Marmot voted elsewhere. I’m inclined to think scum had spread votes out so I want people to make GTH of which is scum between them.

If INH isn’t bad, start from somewhere else.

I realize now too that Marmot voiced suspicion of speed in the same post I quoted that didn’t make sense to me so this whole conversation has been the result of my groggy 7 am misreading so my bad.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:28 pm Colin, I don't suspect you for voting niju. I wanted to lynch niju. I suspect you because you claim to have been SO SURE Scotty was town but then failed to change your vote in order to save him. If you had felt equally meh about both Scotty and INH, then disregarding the Courage stuff (which I still don't see how you didn't get but ok) I would suspect you less because if you were just like whatever between INH and Scotty/fine with either dying, that would make more sense. But you say you thought Scotty was town. I don't think you felt the same about INH, so you should have changed. Maybe you really were too busy to check the status of the poll, but maybe you were letting things happen to leave a tie in order to save INH.

I'm still not sure if I suspect you the most coming out of this. speed is right that fractal and a couple others are just as responsible if not more. I'll see how I feel after the night if I survive. Sorry for coming across as hostile/accusatory about this, I'm just frustrated by yesterday but you are right that we can't redo it and need to move on.

I didn’t think for sure Scotty wasn’t scum, but I was very much thinking so based on his saving me the other day. I wouldn’t have voted for him but I do acknowkedge having made no particular effort to save him. I don’t remember seeing an INH wagon form, even if I had posted in the midst of it. Not sure that I did. I understand your rationale pretty clearly now and agree with taking on INH if others do.

I don’t want you to think I’m hostile either, I’ve got no beef my friend and apologize if it looked like I did — I tried hard so it wouldn’t but I also really wanted to say “masturbatory.”

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:11 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:06 pm If you think my vote looks bad that’s a different beast altogether and I’ll engage you in that, but there’s not a lot to say.

Where DID you end up voting?

I’m pretty sure I stayed on Blooper since the point it was between me, her and Scotty. I still could vote there tomorrow. She flung stuff at me because I was closevand not necessarily because I looked really bad.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:10 pm I'm just really bored atm

If I’m not scum, then who might be?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:05 pm TH is like... pursuing. Hunting.

I can't even what is this game now?

I don’t wanna NO U but it gives me a vibe I don’t like. Not what I saw in U-Pick!

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:03 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:01 pm

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:53 am Like, a town-Colin wouldn't be so pissed for "missing" a detail in the thread and then being called out on it, right? He would take it in stride.

What gives you the idea that town-Colin would do that?

idk you seem like a normally chill dude. Like your default mode is chill.

I try to be. I just reject the ideas that this mislynch was easy to figure out, that anybody is particularly to blame for it, and that I’m bad for suggesting so, and all 3 of those piling up is making me roll my eyes more than normal. If you think my vote looks bad that’s a different beast altogether and I’ll engage you in that, but there’s not a lot to say.

Turnip Head wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:00 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:55 am It’s probably more combative than it needs to be. Sorry. I just don’t appreciate the narrative forming around this lynch and I think others may feel the same. I am partially annoyed by it in the component of people suspecting me for some reason from all this, but such is Mafia.

You say "for some reason", but to me the reasons don't seem all that vague. That phrasing seems reductive to me.

It is reductive.