The Syndicate

Though, there's a (1 - p) x (1 - 10/11 x 8/9) chance of game ending before D3. I'm feeling a little lazy to make calculations on that now.

I've done some calculations on how to make a balanced game by random:

If town correctly assumes there's a traitor, their chance to win would be: (1 - 10/11 x 8/9 x 6/7 x 4/5) = 103/231. While if town correctly assumes there's no traitor, their chance to win is exactly 1. Therefore, assuming p is the chance for the setup to be traitorless and 1 - p is the chance there's a traitor:

(1 - p) x 103/231 = p x 1
103/231 - 103/231 x p = p
103/231 = 334/231 x p
p = 103/334

Therefore, the ideal distribution would be: 103/334 (30.84%) for traitorless and 231/335 (69.16%) for traitor setup. So if town ever settles on always sleeping D3, their EV will be 103/334 (30.84%). If town, on the other hand chooses to never sleep D3, their EV will be: 231/334 x 103/231 = 103/334 (30.84%).

Sucks not being townier than the rest of the town

Wished I had read the book beforehand so I could better enjoy the flavor.

Oh cool we did it. I was kinda afraid you'd all go for Esooa who I was obviously reading as town.

Is it my time to go?

Long Con wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:46 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:43 am I think atp I'm fine allowing any of Esooa, Mac, LC and LoMo to win if one of them is a traitor. That should leave Made, falcon and Gavial?

Why are you ok with allowing LoMo to win as traitor? Isn't that the biggest slap in the face that we could receive?

If he is traitor that will become a reason to punish any slanker indiscriminately in future games.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:45 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:44 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:43 am I think atp I'm fine allowing any of Esooa, Mac, LC and LoMo to win if one of them is a traitor. That should leave Made, falcon and Gavial?

Meh, looking at this list maybe it is indeed traitorless

is that so sir? articulate.

idk, even between my PoE everyone seems uncommited to be traitor

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:43 am I think atp I'm fine allowing any of Esooa, Mac, LC and LoMo to win if one of them is a traitor. That should leave Made, falcon and Gavial?

Meh, looking at this list maybe it is indeed traitorless

I think atp I'm fine allowing any of Esooa, Mac, LC and LoMo to win if one of them is a traitor. That should leave Made, falcon and Gavial?

I think this game has delved into: who we don't want to win as traitor?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:36 am LoMo is probably not the traitor specifically because they've allowed themselves to become a 9 posting LHF. They aren't that bad of a slanker.

Yeah I also think LoMo doesn't make sense as traitor here

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:33 am Seanzie wanted Creature dead. Thats a thing.

I think anyone would gladly kill Seanzie here and his death making me look bad is surplus.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:29 am Ah I thought the kill was rng. I guess if the spec player would want town to lose then the Seanzie kill makes sense.

I suppose they would want that.

Which makes the game kind of silly. We have a wolf killing that isn't a wolf and can't win.

I have a theory it must be a traitor kill but I don't want to spoil it before the N2 kill. It all depends that the spec player actively wants town to not sleep D3.

Thinking would be better we all lose than see someone here win as traitor.

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:03 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:03 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:02 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:01 am Heavily tempted to discard sleeping tomorrow

we should definitely just sleep

If we want to end the game earlier, sure

what? doesn't it always end on day 3

Yeah, if we sleep it should end.

Esooa wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:02 am

Creature wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 12:01 am Heavily tempted to discard sleeping tomorrow

we should definitely just sleep

If we want to end the game earlier, sure

Heavily tempted to discard sleeping tomorrow

How boring

Maybe I shouldn't have joined non-mafia

Olay guess I'll go with it

CRichard?

Who are we voting for?

Aw man

Who are your townreads here?

Made
MacDougall
falcon45ca
Long Con
CRichard
Gavial
lost monkey
Creature
Esooa

Still wouldn't do Esooa

We should also be hunting for town today so we can lynch the one we feel the least confident on.

I think we need to try to find each other town primarily. We don't have enough lynches left to go rogue.

Oh shit I got bored so quickly

I think prob indicates a traitor but maybe it's just WIFOM

Meh it's a topposter kill

This game iis almost a shot in the dark

Man this got boring so fast

Still wondering if I should hope Marl is wolf so I don't feel bad or hope Marl is town so game continues. I think probably the former as I can get myself busy with some other shit.

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:13 pm I could play fall of numenor or whatever. same with traitors. I don't really see many people in traitors I'd really want to play with though and considering I'm trying to only play one game at a time I'm kinda meh on that. Oh wait I actually just remember I joined a game on POG, yeah I can't join anything else

Oh right then

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:10 pm oh my god minimum 20 players okay I'm not playing that

There's also traitors for exile which is 15 players

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:08 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:07 pm Please join one of the games in signups

are you in the avatar game? I considered it

Yes I am

Please join one of the games in signups

I wonder when another mafia game will start

Dafuq accidentally clicked that weird emoji

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:05 pm I hope marluxion is just the mafia. Day 2 is probably going to be so boring.

Yep

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:57 pm Why should I vote Marl?

He's one of the few I don't townread and seemed weird according Esooa.

Esooa is town btw

Esooa wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:37 pm gavial actually gave reads which in that few posts is more than I saw from him in fallout. Unsure about killing there

Okay let's not do Gavial then

My townreads:

Made
MacDougall
Long Con
CRichard
Creature
Esooa
Seanzie

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:28 pm We have to yeet the lowest posters, the nonplayers. [VOTE: gavial] aubergine

Kind of agree maybe

Also BBcode is confusing af here

Made wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 7:14 pm But like actually, If esooa isn't scum, wtf is she doing?

I questioned the same but in the scenario Esooa is scum.

What are all your townreads so far?

Whatever let's see:

[VOTE: Marluxion] aubergine