The Syndicate

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:25 am But, um guys, TSP was scum-spewed on Day 1!

I'm so sorry for falling asleep during the EoD you got yeeted, by the way. ;-;

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:25 am Like, the day never goes to 48 hours. Nutella shoots Alison, Nutella has a twitchy finger. We needed to get things moving and that means forcing Hyena into a vote

I honestly wasn't so sure if Nutella would or not. I think that added to my despair, too, since it looked like she was thinking it was me and TL, too? Anyway, GG. It worked, lol.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:22 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:16 am I think the point where I finally said fuck it was when I finally entertained TSP's idea that our RB didn't go through and that he saved Nutella last night, and he turned around and said, basically, "oh, no, my save doesn't help solve anything." I just lost it at that point, lol. That was probably the most tilted I got in the game.
I didn’t mean to produce that reaction. I just couldn’t have you clear Nutella. And I was right, it was an RB

Yeah, I mean, I figured that's what you were doing once I came to the conclusion that you were just scum, lol. It was still very tilting though as someone who was trying to cooperate with you, lol.

And then he says this:

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:47 pm But Id say that your hostility feels forced

And I'm like, "oh, you mother fucker."

It took everything in me not to start yelling at you at that point, lol.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:17 am
Alison wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:13 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:05 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:04 am Alright, I'm less aggravated now.

GG, Alison and TSP. It was starting to get really tilting talking to both of you on that last day, lol.
That's what really started to confirm for me that it was you two, plus the amount of WIM you two had compared to the other three of us.
FWIW I'd have that amount of WIM regardless of my align. WIM is not alignment indicative for me lol.

But yes we were intentionally trying to tilt you into making a bad vote :P
I really shouldn't be getting mad at you two for doing that, because I do the same exact thing to town when I'm scum, lol. And it's funny every single time. So honestly and genuinely, good on you, too, for succeeding in doing that.

you two** rather, not you too

Alison wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:13 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:05 am
Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:04 am Alright, I'm less aggravated now.

GG, Alison and TSP. It was starting to get really tilting talking to both of you on that last day, lol.
That's what really started to confirm for me that it was you two, plus the amount of WIM you two had compared to the other three of us.
FWIW I'd have that amount of WIM regardless of my align. WIM is not alignment indicative for me lol.

But yes we were intentionally trying to tilt you into making a bad vote :P

I really shouldn't be getting mad at you two for doing that, because I do the same exact thing to town when I'm scum, lol. And it's funny every single time. So honestly and genuinely, good on you, too, for succeeding in doing that.

I think the point where I finally said fuck it was when I finally entertained TSP's idea that our RB didn't go through and that he saved Nutella last night, and he turned around and said, basically, "oh, no, my save doesn't help solve anything." I just lost it at that point, lol. That was probably the most tilted I got in the game.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:08 am I did all I could from beyond the grave to egg nutella on to shoot alison. It’s a cold, empty universe out there.

I probably should have helped egg her on, too, honestly, lol.

Hyena wrote: ↑Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:04 am Alright, I'm less aggravated now.

GG, Alison and TSP. It was starting to get really tilting talking to both of you on that last day, lol.

That's what really started to confirm for me that it was you two, plus the amount of WIM you two had compared to the other three of us.

Alright, I'm less aggravated now.

GG, Alison and TSP. It was starting to get really tilting talking to both of you on that last day, lol.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:17 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:16 pm Nutella, TL and I saved you THREE time. ;-; Why couldn't you have just voted with us?
I mean, you guys hammered yourselves so not sure nutella is to blame there. I think there's a very decent chance she would have gotten there on you two being town because that level of AtE is out of your scum range anyway, if you had just not voted yourselves and allowed nutella to come back.

I'm not blaming her here. I'm just venting.

Nutella, TL and I saved you THREE time. ;-; Why couldn't you have just voted with us?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:08 pm I called it am sorry to the begining townies i tried to push for this it was really had when i knew the other two towns were also demotivated.

I'm sorry I acted out, Trustworthy. I just wanted it to end. I'll take all the blame for the loss. I didn't feel like fighting against TSP and Alison anymore.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:40 pm
Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:39 pm In theroy we could clear Hyena if you think they could have gotten to parady they where here when i went to -1
I’m not clearing hyena off the theory that he doesn’t hammer you and also recall the tl/hyena pairing looking fairly strong right now so

hammer

[VOTE: Trustworthy Lib] aubergine

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:39 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:37 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:36 pm YOLO

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
My only argument is that you two are the only two people with WIM left.
That is a stupid argument because I always have high WIM regardless of my alignment

And where I'm standing I've outed one wolf and now two so obviously I'll have high WIM

This is a bad last gasp from you and I'm just going to exe TL and then you afterwards.

Do me first
[VOTE: Hyena] aubergine

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:37 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:36 pm YOLO

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
My only argument is that you two are the only two people with WIM left.

This is the only thing that makes any sense to me right now.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:36 pm YOLO

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

My only argument is that you two are the only two people with WIM left.

YOLO

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:29 pm Was that a hammer check?

No, but I'm up for treating it as one if you want. I don't care. I don't feel like playing anymore.

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

I try to offer up ideas about what could have happened, and I feel like I'm getting shut down every time.

I'm not having fun anymore. Even if I can convince you guys that I'm not mafia, I have no clue how to proceed from here.

[VOTE: Hyena] aubergine

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:28 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:24 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:23 pm Well it kinda helps
In what way?
Also, I'm kinda frustrated that you used this potential protective ability of yours to make an argument against why I could be wrong with regards to what I said about what potentially happened to the night kills, and then now, when I say that this ability of yours might be the thing that helps us solve the game, say that you're not sure if it's as helpful as I think it is. Like, if you think it's not helpful, why would you bring it up to argue against my point? It's completely unhelpful.

Basically, the way you're using this ability in your posts feels like you're trying to prevent me and others from solving with how waffle-y you're being with it.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:24 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:23 pm Well it kinda helps
In what way?

Also, I'm kinda frustrated that you used this potential protective ability of yours to make an argument against why I could be wrong with regards to what I said about what potentially happened to the night kills, and then now, when I say that this ability of yours might be the thing that helps us solve the game, say that you're not sure if it's as helpful as I think it is. Like, if you think it's not helpful, why would you bring it up to argue against my point? It's completely unhelpful.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:23 pm Well it kinda helps

In what way?

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:57 pm That means that from all points of view, TSP either stopped a nightkill or blocked one, clearing him from being a main wolf. He can be lost wolf who inadvertently blocked his own partner's nightkill on me by locking me up in order to control the thread, though.

I think I agree with this.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:20 pm I targeted nutella. This could be something blocky and it could be something doctory. That doesn't help.

Why doesn't it help?

Trustworthy Liberal wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:35 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:33 pm okay nutella has no more shots is also something to consider
Something i figured from early on and would make sense how they kept treated the other day when they said just yeet them and we remidned them they had the gun.

If mafia didn't know that Nutella had no more shots, do think mafia would want to nightkill her more?

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:45 pm If you saved Nutella last night, then we need to look at the night Alison was locked up. As I mentioned earlier, I think only one of two things happened: 1.) Someone attacked Alison in jail, which I initially thought was Nutella (though I guess it could be TLib, too), 2.) Or we stopped Alison from attacking someone.

Wait, wait, wait. In scenario #1, would TLib attack Alison if they are mafia partners? Only if one of them is a lost wolf, right?

If you saved Nutella last night, then we need to look at the night Alison was locked up. As I mentioned earlier, I think only one of two things happened: 1.) Someone attacked Alison in jail, which I initially thought was Nutella (though I guess it could be TLib, too), 2.) Or we stopped Alison from attacking someone.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:16 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:18 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:15 pm Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.
Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.
I think “wolves shoot at tsp hit vest wolves shoot at Alison / are Alison and run into jail / wolves shoot at Nutella and Nutella got doctored by the only potential TP role in the game (my nonlethal action)” isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility

Was Nutella the person you tried to save last night?

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:40 pm TSP, you mentioned thinking that our roleblock didn't go through and that you mentioned to protect someone last night, right? Who was it again?

This is important, because if you're right, then you might have the game solved right now from my PoV.

TSP, you mentioned thinking that our roleblock didn't go through and that you mentioned to protect someone last night, right? Who was it again?

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:32 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:31 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:28 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:25 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:24 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong
Why?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm cause any kill wins?
What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that
It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?
I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL
Okay, okay. From my PoV, it would always be TL then.
And if this is the case, I think you're always town here, I think.

Which means it would be either TL+Alison or TL+Nutella

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:31 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:28 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:25 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:24 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong
Why?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm cause any kill wins?
What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that
It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?
I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL
Okay, okay. From my PoV, it would always be TL then.

And if this is the case, I think you're always town here, I think.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:28 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:25 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:24 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong
Why?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm cause any kill wins?
What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that
It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?
I think there are about a dozen reasons why it's always one of you or TL

Okay, okay. From my PoV, it would always be TL then.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:28 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:27 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:26 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:24 pm Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of
I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.
Are we talking about last night or the night before right now? Because last night was N5.
Last night.

Okay. You weren't jailkept last night. It was the night before that it happened, I though.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:26 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:24 pm Main wolf still doesn't know lost wolf and is in no danger of getting chopped is the only thing I can think of
I don't think anyone in this thread can say that they are in no danger at all of getting exed in F5 so it's probably not a holster. That reduces the possibilities down to: wolf carrying the kill was roleblocked, main wolf shot the lost wolf and the bullet bounced off because they can't shoot teammates, or someone tried to shoot me without knowing that your jailkeep would prevent that.

Are we talking about last night or the night before right now? Because last night was N5.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:24 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm I don't think it's possible that there was a holster on night 5 unless something went badly wrong
Why?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm cause any kill wins?
What scum team CHOOSES to holster. And not like immediately try to frame me and all that

It would HAVE to be one of me and TL then if this is the case, right?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:22 pm cause any kill wins?

That's what I'm saying. There's no reason for mafia to not try to kill last night unless they were absolutely afraid of hitting a lost wolf. Otherwise, they'd come into today 2-2 most likely. The only other factor would be you being able to break tie votes.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:59 pm I don't think that theory about mafia losing their NK makes sense though, game balance wise. In that universe, town would have a suicide bomber, an investigative, some inventor that gives notes, a neighbourhood with a roleblock, and a dayvig, and scum get... their nightkills stripped away after D2 and a lost wolf?

The only world in which that is even remotely balanced PR wise is if nutella is scum and the dayvig is supposed to compensate for the lack of nightkill, but Occam's Razor is that this theory just isn't true.

Hmm... yeah, when you put it that way in terms of balance, that theory doesn't make sense to me.

In that case, either something is happening to the nightkills, mafia is holstering, or it's some combination of the two.

Okay, I'm back!

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:54 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:18 pm Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.
Yeah I considered the holster bluff possibilities. There are two main uses for a holster bluff in this scenario. Firstly, if mafia believe in the possibility of a doctor protecting them and want to get fake cleared off there being no kill on a night they got protected. (On previous nights, not the night where a successful kill would give them auto, obviously.) This is less likely because from town's point of view the kill could have been stopped by a punk roleblock as well. One way the wolves could be incentivized to make this play is if they were a member of punk chat and knew that the roleblock was going on someone they wanted to frame. That way they can come in the next day pushing the idea that either they were healed (and are towncleared) or the person they roleblocked was stopped from making the kill (and therefore outed wolf). Both narratives are helpful to them. The other main use of a holster bluff is if the main wolf is unsure who the lost wolf is and doesn't want to shoot them by accident.

In the scenario where scum is a member of punk chat and wanted to frame someone by holstering, that would mean the scum in the punk chat is capable of making night kills, right? If this is the case, do you think they've been able to make night kills each of these nights?

Also, I gotta go eat dinner. I'll be back in a bit!

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:57 pm that 'you' means hyena and tl but okay another possibility wolves have a protective role and keep saving the nightkill target

Do you think one of the wolves would be a lost wolf, or would both wolves be together? Because, like, I find it hard to believe they'd be able to pull this off without some heavy coordination.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:43 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:15 pm One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.
That's not possible - you blocked TSP, Alison, TSP. No kill on all three nights.

What? It's possible if you're just main wolves together we happened to choose the correct targets each night. Again though, I doubt I'm THAT lucky? If it did happen though, that's why I said that it would probably be you and TSP.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:54 pm So you both agreed to block Alison?

Yes, TL and I both agreed to block Alison.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:21 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:21 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:16 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:18 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:15 pm Again, here are punk chat's RBs throughout the game:
N1: Poison - order of votes goes TH, TL, me, then Quin
N2: TSP - Trustworthy tried voting for themself initially, but then the order of votes goes TH, me, TL, then a late vote from Quin
N3: TSP - This is the night Marmot redirected our RB to TSP. Before that, the order of votes went Quin (for Alison), TL (for nutella), me (for nutella)
N4: Alison - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously
N5: TSP - TL and I voted nearly simultaneously

There hasn't been any night kills beginning N3. To note, this happened the night proceeding the day phase punk chat entered the thread. Also to note, TSP apparently has a bulletproof vest.

One possibility that could explain the lack of night kills is that punk chat has been roleblocking the correct mafia for the last three nights. If this is the case, then the game is pretty straightforward -- it's TSP and Alison. However... I'm not that lucky, I think. There was some logic that went into the decisions, but like.... three times in a row? I'll be impressed with myself if this actually is the case.
Another possibility is that mafia has been choosing not to kill at all. One reason I can see this is a possibility is that there could be a wolf in the punk chat and they've been afraid to attack them... but then why didn't they go after the people that have been in the thread? Maybe it isn't confirmed to them where the lost wolf is if the is one. If there -isn't- a lost wolf, I have no clue why they would choose not to nightkill someone, especially last night when they could have reached parity today.
I think “wolves shoot at tsp hit vest wolves shoot at Alison / are Alison and run into jail / wolves shoot at Nutella and Nutella got doctored by the only potential TP role in the game (my nonlethal action)” isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility
Actually, how could a night kill -ever- have been prevented by your "nonlethal action"? You were RBed both times there wasn't a nightkill when you locked someone up. o:
I’m considering the possibility that I wasn’t blocked last night, a likelihood if you think Alison has the protective role and you’re both wolves. Or if there’s something else going on that I don’t underdtand

Oh my god, I think I know what you're trying to suggest with me+Alison. That would be so hilariously bastard if mafia does have access to a protective role and they're just targeting the same person.

Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:53 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:19 pm
Hyena wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:59 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:02 pm @TL @Hyena I need recollections of what went down the night Alison was blocked in scumchat. You say that you both agreed and Quin dissented?
No, we yeeted Quin the day before we blocked Alison. So, we both voted together on Alison. The night Quin didn't vote with us was the night Marmot redirected our RB to you.
Check your timeline?
Wait, your right. It was Marmot who got yeeted the day phase preceeding that night phase. I don't see a vote from Quin though anywhere. o:

you're** rather

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