The Syndicate

BWOOOOONNNNNGGGGG

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:57 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:47 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:41 pm If you are a civilian and it is your ultimate decision to cast a vote against me, all I ask is that you hedge on that vote by copying and pasting my Dragomir analysis from Day 1. I haven't updated it to reflect anything here or from Day 2, but please let everyone know my views if you choose to send in my name.

I didn't like this emotional appeal yesterday and I like it even less on a repeat viewing. I understand the desire to have an impact on the game, but this still feels like you're trying to yell "look at me, I'm so town".

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:41 pm If you are a civilian and it is your ultimate decision to cast a vote against me, all I ask is that you hedge on that vote by copying and pasting my Dragomir analysis from Day 1. I haven't updated it to reflect anything here or from Day 2, but please let everyone know my views if you choose to send in my name.

I didn't like this emotional appeal yesterday and I like it even less on a repeat viewing. I understand the desire to have an impact on the game, but this still feels like you're trying to yell "look at me, I'm so town".

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:26 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:24 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:18 pm

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:39 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:59 pm And I've now read your updated Rabbit case and that looks good too. Scales are definitely tipping towards Epi being the scum in your pair. I don't like that because it means Dom's probably town, but I can deal.

@Evenstar why do you have epi/Dom not w/w

I don't feel like any sane scumteam just completely commits to trying to body you through the floor today.

Dom and Epi have both been extremely agressive towards you, and I just don't buy that a pair of wolves would be that brazen.

I could be wrong and Dom could just have piled onto his scumleader's case without really thinking about it, but... Frankly, I think Dom actually does think through his actions better than that. Plus, he's been acting weirdly buddyish at Epi, which is additional evidence they're not w/w.

I reject this characterization of my interaction with iaafr. My purpose was to get satisfactory answers so that I could make a judgment. iaafr was the person who had the most posts that I had the most muddied view of. I'm not pleased with how it happened, but I ultimately accomplished my purpose.

What view did you achieve?

And how did that pressure lead to your achieving it?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:24 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:18 pm

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:39 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:59 pm And I've now read your updated Rabbit case and that looks good too. Scales are definitely tipping towards Epi being the scum in your pair. I don't like that because it means Dom's probably town, but I can deal.

@Evenstar why do you have epi/Dom not w/w

I don't feel like any sane scumteam just completely commits to trying to body you through the floor today.

Dom and Epi have both been extremely agressive towards you, and I just don't buy that a pair of wolves would be that brazen.

I could be wrong and Dom could just have piled onto his scumleader's case without really thinking about it, but... Frankly, I think Dom actually does think through his actions better than that. Plus, he's been acting weirdly buddyish at Epi, which is additional evidence they're not w/w.

I reject this characterization of my interaction with iaafr. My purpose was to get satisfactory answers so that I could make a judgment. iaafr was the person who had the most posts that I had the most muddied view of. I'm not pleased with how it happened, but I ultimately accomplished my purpose.

What view did you achieve?

Yeesh, 1 hour again
where does the day go

I feel like sprit's chart is out of date and in any case it'd be against the spirit to use it as a voting guide

I'm just going to vote my heart and hope

{Epi, Dom, Colin}

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:38 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:35 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:24 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:49 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:38 pm So who’re your three atm?

I’m seeing a lot of townreads on consensus suspects or your former suspects in your iso.

I'm finding lots of reasons to townread people. That's half the battle!

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:52 pm In focusing on previous scumreads I'm finding reasons to townread instead. The only person I'm leaning definitely on the scum side right now is sprityo.

You're so null it bothers me. Dom has moved up in my books.

I think I need to reconsider Colin now. And Epi needs a reread too.

anyways, i need to know your 3 time now. it's for my pretty chart im doing

same for @Dom and @Jackofhearts2005 if they can

Sprityo, as someone who has a pretty chart herself, read the OP:

"Likewise, each of the following is prohibited on this dream level:

~ Stating who you will vote for.
~ Recommending others vote for any specific player.
~ Rainbow lists
~ Any other obvious actions which do or can reduce your potential vote with certainty to a single player.
~ Compile a public count of potential votes, even if uncertain, based upon content in the thread."

If you're doing that for public consumption then I think this bans it

I'd at least ask JJJ

Im probably dead anyways let's see if i can skate by

sprityo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:24 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:49 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:38 pm So who’re your three atm?

I’m seeing a lot of townreads on consensus suspects or your former suspects in your iso.

I'm finding lots of reasons to townread people. That's half the battle!

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:52 pm In focusing on previous scumreads I'm finding reasons to townread instead. The only person I'm leaning definitely on the scum side right now is sprityo.

You're so null it bothers me. Dom has moved up in my books.

I think I need to reconsider Colin now. And Epi needs a reread too.

anyways, i need to know your 3 time now. it's for my pretty chart im doing

same for @Dom and @Jackofhearts2005 if they can

Sprityo, as someone who has a pretty chart herself, read the OP:

"Likewise, each of the following is prohibited on this dream level:

~ Stating who you will vote for.
~ Recommending others vote for any specific player.
~ Rainbow lists
~ Any other obvious actions which do or can reduce your potential vote with certainty to a single player.
~ Compile a public count of potential votes, even if uncertain, based upon content in the thread."

If you're doing that for public consumption then I think this bans it

I'd at least ask JJJ

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:57 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:55 pm Okay, I've gone through your responses and I'm largely satisfied, so long as you actually return with that Epignosis case.

I have one additional follow-up before I get out of your hair: why are you placing Colin above Sprityo? I get that Colin got forced out of the bottom by Epi falling, and I also get that you don't feel that Sprityo's outburst last EOD is worth much, but my feel of the two of them is that Sprityo has done significantly more to help solve than Colin, especially today - note him pointing out the "but how would they know he was the doublevoter" flaw in my reasoning. That kind of catch takes real thought and analysis: I've seen little of similar depth from Colin. Sort by post count today also backs up my impression. Are you sure you've really thought your current PoE through?

does it really take that much though

that's easily in the realm of stuff any scum player could think about

things that only take essentially pure logic and reasoning are always things I can't give cred for

I'm arguing the logical side here because I know Pawn responds to it: TBH, I think one of the most clearing things Sprityo's done was have his meltdown at EoD yesterday.

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:39 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:59 pm And I've now read your updated Rabbit case and that looks good too. Scales are definitely tipping towards Epi being the scum in your pair. I don't like that because it means Dom's probably town, but I can deal.

@Evenstar why do you have epi/Dom not w/w

I don't feel like any sane scumteam just completely commits to trying to body you through the floor today.

Dom and Epi have both been extremely agressive towards you, and I just don't buy that a pair of wolves would be that brazen.

I could be wrong and Dom could just have piled onto his scumleader's case without really thinking about it, but... Frankly, I think Dom actually does think through his actions better than that. Plus, he's been acting weirdly buddyish at Epi, which is additional evidence they're not w/w.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:07 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:55 pm Pawn Lelouch
Okay, I've gone through your responses and I'm largely satisfied, so long as you actually return with that Epignosis case.

I have one additional follow-up before I get out of your hair: why are you placing Colin above Sprityo? I get that Colin got forced out of the bottom by Epi falling, and I also get that you don't feel that Sprityo's outburst last EOD is worth much, but my feel of the two of them is that Sprityo has done significantly more to help solve than Colin, especially today - note him pointing out the "but how would they know he was the doublevoter" flaw in my reasoning. That kind of catch takes real thought and analysis: I've seen little of similar depth from Colin. Sort by post count today also backs up my impression. Are you sure you've really thought your current PoE through?

I fully admit those are the two float spot players.

Still, my take on it ultimately is that Sprit does have more posts and content certainly, with some decent individual posts. My concern is that when I read through the ISO wholesale it just feels so bleh and lifeless in a way that most of the other players don't. Couple that with the lack of agenda I read from Colin (admittedly likely due to a lack of posts) and it's enough to put him slightly ahead of Sprit.

And planning to if I can. Deadline to show at the court is at 12:45 so I'm assuming that we start at 1ish. And I don't think a mock will take 4 hours to go through so I should have time post mock to properly construct the case before EOD.

Give me the abstract now if you can.

And I've now read your updated Rabbit case and that looks good too. Scales are definitely tipping towards Epi being the scum in your pair. I don't like that because it means Dom's probably town, but I can deal.

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]
Okay, I've gone through your responses and I'm largely satisfied, so long as you actually return with that Epignosis case.

I have one additional follow-up before I get out of your hair: why are you placing Colin above Sprityo? I get that Colin got forced out of the bottom by Epi falling, and I also get that you don't feel that Sprityo's outburst last EOD is worth much, but my feel of the two of them is that Sprityo has done significantly more to help solve than Colin, especially today - note him pointing out the "but how would they know he was the doublevoter" flaw in my reasoning. That kind of catch takes real thought and analysis: I've seen little of similar depth from Colin. Sort by post count today also backs up my impression. Are you sure you've really thought your current PoE through?

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:03 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:07 am Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

No, I'm saying that it fits with iaafr's stated goal of survival, which is a towny motivation and one I believe in since I would do and have done similar plays. I do not think they would catch him on one wagon, but it fits with his stated motivations and actions better than most of the other potential powers and so it fits as the one he has and is tied with a naturally towny motivation.

So what you're saying is that you believe he might have had that thought process? Yeah, that checks out, I made the mistake myself when I was considering Iaafr so it's not surprising that he might've done it as well.

Talk me through Epi again. I feel like #909 could be town-motivated: I was upending my reads earlier today trying to find a better PoE, and you yourself agreed that the current PoE felt bad and changed some of your reads in response to the shifts in mine... but then you defended trying to keep the status quo and said it was good for town? It feels like you agreed with me to placate me and then defended against Epi because you saw it as an attack on your position as "widely townread."

makes a seesaw motion with her hands

... I think that the balance of the facts says you and Epi are not on the same scumteam. So I can at least not worry about that. Is Epi town...? I feel like they might be town, and Dom might be scum riding shotgun on their reads. But then there's their very intermittent existence both days, and their bad push on Iaafr... And #909 does have the characteristics of a drive-by.

I really feel like you and Epi are W/T now. Help me find the scum.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:56 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:51 am @Pawn Lelouch

Yeah, you're scum. The vague shade on me justified by nightkill wine after spending most of the day sheeping my reads is very, very not a good look from you. I 100% expect you to turn around and try to dunk me tomorrow based on what you're saying right now. Engaging with Rabbit's paranoia and suggesting that everyone on lower floors got modkilled is blatant fearmongering, particularly as we know there was a lower-level lynch yesterday which you seem to have unaccountably forgotten about.

That, more than anything, is what's making my brain be filled with fuck here. You're a mechanical player. How the hell did you mislay one of the two flips we've had in this entire game???

And yes, yes, "my reads are fixed, status quo is town" - why then did you follow me when I upended half my reads earlier today? Your words and your actions are not in agreement with each other, and you're already laying groundwork against me because you're worried I'll notice.

Yeah, I notice. I really, really notice.

{Pawn, Dom, Epi}

...

The supposed "shade" from the Nook kill is something that I specifically said applied to both of us and is something I used to increase my read of you, with me explicitly explaining why that was a bad argument when I brought it up.

With Rabbit's post I wasn't fearmongering, the fuck? I said that the only way for only the bottom level to matter is for every other player to be dead except us and that is a special kind of bullshit which I don't think exists. That is me looking at his paranoia and pointing out reasons why it's bad.

The fact that I have a shitty memory and didn't save things between threads on principle when I thought about it. Especially when the initial Boo flip had just been something I got a small glance of right at the beginning of the night before the initial delete. That had been during my tennis service learning course, I quite literally didn't have time to give it more than a minor glance. You may not like it but in a bad memory with this situation? Pretty damn easy to waylay something like that.

Eva there are 9 players. I have not wavered from multiple days of putting you, me, and iaafr on top, with MR in the middle, and Dom at the bottom. That has been 5 slots that have basically been fixed in place. Now look at the other 4.

Colin, Epi, Jack, and Sprit. Sprit has explicitly been a placeholder slot for me due to space and remember how earlier I had basically said him and Jack were basically floaty between middle and bottom? Yeah, I do too, bringing it down to 3 potential unaltered slots.

And Colin is literally a case of minimal content so flip a coin on where he goes. My actual stated read on him has not changed at all, it's literally that Epi has gone down that made him get the slot rather than anything he did.

So 2 slots that have altered. And even then, Jack had been the other one that I had called floaty between bottom and middle, so his play recently merely solidified what I'd been seeing rather than being anything new. So the one large change is my Epi view. 1 (1.5) read out of 9.

Despite what you are saying that is not a large change, especially when so many of the players are a weird uncleared mess. Also want to point out I'm not a bussy scum and you know this. If I'm on your scum read list why are you putting me in with Epi and Dom, ie my two most solid scum reads?

Rabbit paranoia answer is good. "Crap memory" on the Spiny post is a bit convenient but I'll let it pass. I get the Colin/Epi thing, sorry about putting that to you in the first place. As for "not a bussy scum" - while that's inherently a deeply wine-y argument, I do acknowledge that's your meta and that makes it pretty unlikely you're with Epi or Dom.

I still would like you to go through your reasoning on Epi and Iaafr again slowly. Yes, I know you've explained both your Rabbit and Epi reads; please do so again in a broader context. I want to see how you get where you are.

god I hate our meta sometimes

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:03 am

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:00 am you just said frankly 3 times in your last two posts pawn

thats not a good look my friend

Welcome to my verbal tics emporium. Might I interest you in seeing the genuinely exhibit? Or perhaps the honestly one? That's an old favorite of mine.

[mention]iaafr[/mention] [mention]Epignosis[/mention]

This is in fact a thing Pawn does regardless of alignment, don't factor it in to your read.

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]

For convenience's sake, here's a condensed summary of what I actually want from you:
1: Why did you believe that Spiny's lynch had been janitored when her alignment information was intact?
2: Why did you believe that a doublevoter would have incentive to vote no lynch?
3: Why do you read Epignosis badly based on your NKA when you say the kill points at me?
4: Is it really a coincidence that 90% of your read movement tracks with mine?
5: How on earth did you manage to forget that there were 16 players yesterday?
6: Why are you entertaining Rabbit's paranoia that everyone except us is dead when Spiny was clearly lynched in a lower layer yesterday?

And while I'm at it:
7: Give me your latest reads on me, Dom, Colin and Iaafr.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:10 am @Pawn Lelouch
Can you please explain your reasons for moving Epi down in your reads? Are you just sheeping me, or do you have independent thoughts there?

never mind, it's the NKA, I had a brain fart

I still don't think that's a good reason but it's certainly explained well enough

I'm more interested in your answers regarding iaafr and the janitor thing now

I looked at Pawn's read of Colin and saw that it moved up to neutral and got all sus about it, but it turned out to be a total nothingburger. It's pretty clear he got forced into the middle by Pawn's degrading read of Epignosis, which he has sufficiently explained even if do I think NKA is generally a bad plan.

I still want Pawn to explain why his mechanical play is sucking so badly right now though. I'm used to him being the one to call me out on things like my doublevoter fuckup, rather than smiling and nodding and going 'that's nice dear.' The "15 players" and "it was a janitor" reads are also deeply wtf, along with the fact that he takes his NKA, says "this kill points at Eva", and then turns 90 degrees to slam Epi for it rather than me. Either he's taking the idea that I'm mechanically confirmed far too seriously, or he's deliberately trying to avoid my ire. Either one is not a great look.

Dom wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:01 am Pawn clearly didn't care what he accusations against iaafr were-- any way to clear him, he was cool with.

Why?

If I had to guess I would say he's trying to pocket me/rabbit. There's the possibility that he's scum with rabbit, but his saying to Rabbit that Epi is overreacting and to Epi that Rabbit is overreacting strikes me more as a W/T/T or T/T/T interaction than a W/W/T one. That looks like he's trying to earn towncred with both of them by playing the neutral mediator.

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]
Can you please explain your reasons for moving Epi down in your reads? Are you just sheeping me, or do you have independent thoughts there?

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:11 pm So 9 here. Nova and Nook either died or moved up to the top level by the sounds of things, with Nova being the likely lynch vote of the two.

LLD, Quin, Mac, and 112 are missing. And I think we had 15 so that should be everyone accounted for.

We had 16. Pawn's forgotten about Michelle. Normally I'd ignore this, but this is unlike him: he's generally a very detail-oriented player. I don't know what it means but it's weird.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:22 pm We'll find out what happened there eventually, though we can be aware that the scum janitor is one of the roles left up top.

And I'm interested in how these levels got grouped the way they are. Since it's likely not RNG, the question is if the GMs are controlling it with a clear criteria or if a player has the power to pick who moves down levels and who stays behind.

This was weird when I read it the first time and it's still weird now. I just don't see how someone of Pawn's caliber looks at the Spiny flip and concludes "janitored."

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:24 pm Since if [who advances to the next round is] player controlled we can probably divine information based on who was left behind and who kept going, at least at this stage of the game. The first drop was too large to really pin down, while going from 15 to this is fairly manageable in terms of intent reading.

This is a good thought, but I have seen absolutely no followup from Pawn on it since he made it. Instead he's hared off on nightkill analysis.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:34 pm {Me, Evenstar, iiafr}
{Epi, MR, Sprit}
{Dom, Jack, Colin}

Roughly where I am, though Jack and Sprit are honestly kind fluid, positioning wise.

This is post #42.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:28 pm from the people here my immediate top 3 are {colin/dom/jack}

the lack of a nova flip is a real bitch

This is post #33.

I was making no secret of my Iaafr read, and of course Pawn is going to put me in the top bracket if he's trying to pocket me. I accepted this as a mindmeld then, but now it's giving me flashbacks to Geo and RedDevil in the MU finals.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:49 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:40 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:40 pm

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:34 pm {Me, Evenstar, iiafr}
{Epi, MR, Sprit}
{Dom, Jack, Colin}

Roughly where I am, though Jack and Sprit are honestly kind fluid, positioning wise.

I endorse this list in its entirety

except sprit is not fluid he's solidly in the middle group

Is this due to his emotional outburst around EOD? Trying to figure out where you're getting the confidence for the placement there.

I was able to get Pawn to reverse on this, but then he flopped back into reading Sprityo as scum later in the day.

That kind of flip-flop says he really does want Sprityo lynched, which feels towny to me... but it could also be Pawn knowing that he has to ML Sprityo to save a partner or win the final 5. This pushes me towards it being Pawn/Colin or Pawn/Dom if Pawn is scum.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:09 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:03 pm

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:22 pm We'll find out what happened there eventually, though we can be aware that the scum janitor is one of the roles left up top.

And I'm interested in how these levels got grouped the way they are. Since it's likely not RNG, the question is if the GMs are controlling it with a clear criteria or if a player has the power to pick who moves down levels and who stays behind.

... is it common for janitors to be able to work on lynches? I don't get where you're getting this "janitor" idea from.

Yeah. Janitors pretty commonly work on lynches, otherwise their utility would be severely hampered. Clearing info from cops + gunsmiths are nice and all, but lynches are where the actual main use of the ability lies imo.

And I thought it was a guaranteed janitor since I saw it was boo, but was too busy finishing up my service learning for the day to look at the actual text closely and see that it strongly hinted mason before it was deleted. So I just saw redacted and kinda auto assumed janitor throughout the night since I believe it was one of the listed possible roles at the beginning and it fits with the info removal.

... Now that I consider this again, the #1 point of janitoring a lynch would be to destroy the alignment information from the flip. That information was intact in Spiny's flip. This really feels like Pawn trying to cover for a scumslip.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:57 pm Like, the most potentially sus thing that I could see would be how you, ES, and myself all have the same bottom 3 with the order being ES, myself, and then you, with the argument that this is either two scum buddying a townie or a scum player faking a read list to consenus players.

But even then I wouldn't have them down there if I didn't consider them the most sus players in the game right now, so while that thought process could technically have merit, it's not one worth discussing as of right now.

I could be reading in too much here, but my hindbrain is screaming that this hedge is more setup for a flip on me or rabbit. The "a scum player faking a read list to consensus players" theory also leaps out at me now.

Would Pawn be that brazen? Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh maybe. He does like to post little "injokes" when he's scum: the trouble is he does it when he's town as well. I'm going to set this aside as NAI for now, but I'd like others to put eyeballs on it and express their own opinions.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:08 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:59 am

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:58 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:57 am Pawn, you seem to have an affinity for iaafr. Can you elaborate?

An affinity in terms of having a read that I believe is correct or personality + style?

You seem to like what he's doing. Any outside commentary from someone I even remotely trust would be coveted.

For the most part since early D1 I've honestly found him to be largely acting in a town manner and I generally like the direction that he has pushed in terms of reads. And yes, he did the unvote rather than vote but that doesn't change that he's been fairly solid everywhere else this game.

Especially when you consider the fact that the fact that he removed the 112 vote still helped with Drago and is something that he had to have known would be scummy looking as either alignment due to timing. And full disclosure that is the type of play I have done before, and while it's risky it is something that can work in terms of trying to guarantee a life extension. So I can see the thought process and the weird half measure doesn't feel like scum in that instance, since he would have committed to a hard stance and not ended it on the no lynch.

And while I think iaafr is overreacting in terms of annoyance from your questions I can see how his frustration comes from the setup and is being exacerbated, where the way he is reacting isn't necessarily productive, but feels like town iaafr from what I've observed in other games and spec.

This is a good post. It explains why he's reading Iaafr as town despite the unvote, engages with Epi's concerns, but still comes away with a firm opinion on Iaafr. I don't like the "Iaafr is overreacting" read when he said not five minutes ago that Epi was over-pressuring Iaafr, but I'm still chalking up townpoints to Pawn here.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:11 am Alright, @Epignosis and @iaafr can you both leave the thread for 30 minutes to an hour? So both of you can cool off and stop sniping and we can try to make the thread productive again once you return.

This looks good in that context. I believe that Pawn thinks this is a T/T fight and he's trying to get the two to disengage. I don't like how he's been trending downwards on Epi later based apparently entirely on my reasoning regarding the Iaafr pressure. I'm used to Pawn having a very independent train of thought from my own, and it's really starting to feel like he's just sheeping me there, especially given that he was apparently still strongly reading Epi town at this point.

I'm going back through Pawn's ISO now, will update with what I find.

Pawn also agreed with me without thinking about it that Iaafr being the doublevoter was a good reason why he was town

Even though it was bullshit to think scum would be able to somehow divine who the doublevoter was based on one wagon

that reeks of "going with the flow" rather than doing independent thought

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]

Yeah, you're scum. The vague shade on me justified by nightkill wine after spending most of the day sheeping my reads is very, very not a good look from you. I 100% expect you to turn around and try to dunk me tomorrow based on what you're saying right now. Engaging with Rabbit's paranoia and suggesting that everyone on lower floors got modkilled is blatant fearmongering, particularly as we know there was a lower-level lynch yesterday which you seem to have unaccountably forgotten about.

That, more than anything, is what's making my brain be filled with fuck here. You're a mechanical player. How the hell did you mislay one of the two flips we've had in this entire game???

And yes, yes, "my reads are fixed, status quo is town" - why then did you follow me when I upended half my reads earlier today? Your words and your actions are not in agreement with each other, and you're already laying groundwork against me because you're worried I'll notice.

Yeah, I notice. I really, really notice.

{Pawn, Dom, Epi}

... still don't like the donald trump comparison

or the fact that you call rabbit "whiny"

... you were definitely abrasive and unfair to rabbit. I stand by that assessment. It was not necessary to tell them to "fuck off" or to pile on like three posts characterizing them as childish and oversensitive.

That said, your play later today is much more reasonable. I do frankly think you were over the line early, but you've reeled it in since. I got overly heated too; calling you a dick and an asshole was over the line from me, and I apologize. I react very badly to things I percieve as bullying.

Let's both back off the heated rhetoric and play this game more courteously, yeah? I think we're both frustrated by this unexpected secret-voting environment, and that's making tensions higher than they ought to be. When combined with the fact that I read your first post today as just straight-up dunking on Radishes' play, I definitely jumped to some super hasty conclusions.

oh my god

[mention]Dom[/mention]

When you said to radishes "you're so bad" today

you meant he was clearly scum, not that he sucked at mafia

right?

yeah uh night

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:39 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:35 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:31 pm

Eva wrote:talk to me about my rederivation of this shitty, shitty PoE

which of my assumptions are wrong

Walk me through how Rabbit being a double voter makes Rabbit town or why a town double voter wouldn’t have voted the scumread he “obviously” secretly had.

I don’t get it.

I admit this is a weak point in my case for Iaafr, but I am ok with it and still think he's town

Do you have further reasons to scumread him?

I feel like I’m getting a lot of “fair point, Jack, but I’m just gonna keep the reads I have” today.

give me reads, jack
don't make me scroll back
no more no more no more no more
tell me true, jack,
don't make me ask you for more

I'm literally falling asleep at my keyboard here

I blame faylight savings time

yeah I think i should sleep on this

nighrall

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:31 pm

Eva wrote:talk to me about my rederivation of this shitty, shitty PoE

which of my assumptions are wrong

Walk me through how Rabbit being a double voter makes Rabbit town or why a town double voter wouldn’t have voted the scumread he “obviously” secretly had.

I don’t get it.

I admit this is a weak point in my case for Iaafr, but I am ok with it and still think he's town

Do you have further reasons to scumread him?

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:28 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:26 pm

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:23 pm y'all can act like it's a dumb tinfoil and I'll keep acting like y'all's susses of me are dumb tinfoils cuz from where I'm standing I believe in the latter far more

you gotta sell, rabbit

if you want to convince people you have to show them how they're wrong, not just insist they are

but none of them appear receptive to my way of townreading myself and just want me to defend against accusations in ways where I'd normally be quoting d1 posts

and if I think they're all scum and all the actual town are townreading me I can be satisfied with this gamestate

when have you ever played a mafia game that was that convenient

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:23 pm y'all can act like it's a dumb tinfoil and I'll keep acting like y'all's susses of me are dumb tinfoils cuz from where I'm standing I believe in the latter far more

you gotta sell, rabbit

if you want to convince people you have to show them how they're wrong, not just insist they are

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:41 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:01 pm
dom is an asshole and I feel like the syndicate are missing his lack of real work because they're just used to his abrasive nature and don't want to interact with it too much

Wild.

If you think I'm missing something quote me it

I read Sprityo's summaries and yeah he has some stuff, but it's poor IMO

defend your views, don't just shade vaguely

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:22 pm {Dom, Radishes, Epi}

yeah, this PoE feels much less bullshit than the one I had before

it's probably still wrong but at least it's not cowardly as well

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:27 pm wow I did a thing that changed somebody's scumread of somebody

that might be a first all game

BWONNNNNGGGGGGG

{Dom, Radishes, Epi}

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:15 pm and i mean the irritation and obstinance wouldnt even be faked per se

... yeah, on review your side of this is a lot more emotionally fraught than his

he doesn't get much above a simmer and some casual shade

... not a good look for him, honestly. Maybe he's just that controlled. He is a professor.

... that feels like bullshit when I say it.

Epi can remain a suspect.

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:06 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:05 pm

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:02 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:01 pm ... I think it would be astonishing if a player like Grapefruit had a scumgame like mine. That's what I think, on careful review. Epi is town. And if he's not, he deserves to win.

where did grapefruit come from wtf

epi feels analytical like grapefruit21 or pawn IMO

but if he's scum he's faking a ton of emotions

these two things don't seem to jibe

which of his emotions are town-perspective and cant be genuine scum perspective emotions and/or genuine emotions sublimated into ones that pretend to be town

No, that's not the point

the point is that I think he's naturally an observer-type or analyst-type player, and therefore it's hard for him to fake emotion and he'll prefer not to do it

then there's like four pages of very heated emotions today

I don't think the emotions themselves are unfakable, if that was Hyena doing that I would lynch it instantly

but I feel like Epi specifically would have a difficult time doing that

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] you're a syndi, am I right about Epi's character here or am I blowing smoke?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:04 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:44 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:32 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:36 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:32 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:31 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:26 pm

I suspect you, the rabbit, mac, hyena, and jack.

That's my angle.

hyena is town
iaafr is town
you're scum

jack and radishes could go either way, rn I'm leaning towards radishes

Why?

Hyena is town because I know how he plays and he's town hyena
iaafr is town because I'm mindmelding with them, and also for other reasons
you're scum because you're not playing the game and hiding that behind fake aggression while trying to buddy up to epignosis
jack is scum because he's not playing the game, but he's doing better with making his thoughts clear today
I'm tinfoiling radishes because he pushed me hard yesterday and it feels like he reversed on me a bit too quickly

Which bits?

I ended up coming around to their reads on people both D1 and D2, I can't name the specific ones off the top of my head. I think they were talking about epi being potentially scum? In any case their thought process is good and I don't see their current attitude being easily fakable. I think they're getting scumread by the syndicate contingent because their playstyle is aggressively non-syndi.

in fact my latest read chart says the following:
- iaafr is hated by syndicate people
- dom and colin are hated by non-syndicate people
- you're hated by literally everyone

which says to me that
1: the iaafr, dom and colin scumreads are all quite possibly garbage caused by clashing playstyles
2: you're blatant mislynch-bait given that absolutely nobody is sticking up for you, literally everyone has you in their bottom 3
3: I ought to be looking for scum in my middle or top tiers.

so my spicy spicy potential-scum list rn is
{Pawn, Epi, Radishes, Sprityo}

though honestly Dom keeps creeping back in just because he's been such an unjustified dick to Rabbit.

I hear what you’re saying and you look like you’re saying “Jack is town and 2 of his bottom 3 are probably scum.”

talk to me about my rederivation of this shitty, shitty PoE

which of my assumptions are wrong

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:02 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:01 pm ... I think it would be astonishing if a player like Grapefruit had a scumgame like mine. That's what I think, on careful review. Epi is town. And if he's not, he deserves to win.

where did grapefruit come from wtf

epi feels analytical like grapefruit21 or pawn IMO

but if he's scum he's faking a ton of emotions

these two things don't seem to jibe

[mention]iaafr[/mention], [mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention]
help me out here, what am I doing wrong
this PoE sucks but I can't seem to see the game a different way

my gut is yelling that pawn is town

rabbit is never scum, I'm locking that read in

if pawn has fooled all of me and rabbit and epi they deserve to win

I think I'm being overparanoid about epi

Jack is never scum because he's being unanimously scumread, also he's actually fucking playing today and is I think the only person to really push for an exit from this crap PoE

if sprityo faked that emotional outburst yesterday they deserve to win, that was super damn genuine, and they are in fact contributing and doing the work, their translation of dom was helpful today in particular

dom is an asshole and I feel like the syndicate are missing his lack of real work because they're just used to his abrasive nature and don't want to interact with it too much

radishes... I don't wanna suspect radishes, it feels too easy after they scumread me yesterday, but it's the truth that they have just done less work than many people, and their pushes against epi and iaafr feel awkward, and I personally like them but... something does not feel right.

colin ... I feel has good mafia equity but he's being pushed by non-syndi people and I want to like him. He's been asking good questions and I can see a town him existing.

so let's go back to epi again, what is he really

... I think it would be astonishing if a player like Grapefruit had a scumgame like mine. That's what I think, on careful review. Epi is town. And if he's not, he deserves to win.

so then...

{Me, Pawn, Epi, Rabbit, Jack, Sprityo}

{Dom, Radishes, Colin}

I've rederived my way back into the crap PoE again

oh, uh, rule of three

make that pawn, epi and radishes

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:26 pm btw i appreciate you calling doms posts at me dickish because having somebody to corroborate what im seeing really helps me feel saner in these situations

it's no problem

incidentally, what's your latest read of Pawn? I want to check my intuition with someone who isn't Syndicate

iaafr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:22 pm

i love you

no hetero

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:39 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:33 pm I do think my Rabbit read should be a little less secure given that he hasn't actually got a good reason to be not voting D1 even if he is the doublevoter, but IMO Epi's argument here boils down to "If they're mechanically confirmed town that just makes them look worse", which is absolutely garbage.

And if you're admitting that my reasoning for questioning iaafr last night was ultimately fair, why not engage iaafr yourself?

Perhaps you will have better results than I got.

I feel like the rabbit is scared enough with both you and dom getting up in its fur, and I'm confident enough in my read to let it go another day

also see my theory above

unanimity is bad because it means the scum agree

oh yeah I should make the noise

BWONNNNNGGGGGG

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:32 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:36 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:32 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:31 pm

Dom wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:26 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:18 pm Dom, serious question - what's your play here? If you're town, you're not building any more of a case against iaafr, you're just being a dick. And that's fine, but it's not helpful.

I suspect you, the rabbit, mac, hyena, and jack.

That's my angle.

hyena is town
iaafr is town
you're scum

jack and radishes could go either way, rn I'm leaning towards radishes

Why?

Hyena is town because I know how he plays and he's town hyena
iaafr is town because I'm mindmelding with them, and also for other reasons
you're scum because you're not playing the game and hiding that behind fake aggression while trying to buddy up to epignosis
jack is scum because he's not playing the game, but he's doing better with making his thoughts clear today
I'm tinfoiling radishes because he pushed me hard yesterday and it feels like he reversed on me a bit too quickly

Which bits?

I ended up coming around to their reads on people both D1 and D2, I can't name the specific ones off the top of my head. I think they were talking about epi being potentially scum? In any case their thought process is good and I don't see their current attitude being easily fakable. I think they're getting scumread by the syndicate contingent because their playstyle is aggressively non-syndi.

in fact my latest read chart says the following:
- iaafr is hated by syndicate people
- dom and colin are hated by non-syndicate people
- you're hated by literally everyone

which says to me that
1: the iaafr, dom and colin scumreads are all quite possibly garbage caused by clashing playstyles
2: you're blatant mislynch-bait given that absolutely nobody is sticking up for you, literally everyone has you in their bottom 3
3: I ought to be looking for scum in my middle or top tiers.

so my spicy spicy potential-scum list rn is
{Pawn, Epi, Radishes, Sprityo}

though honestly Dom keeps creeping back in just because he's been such an unjustified dick to Rabbit.

[mention]Pawn Lelouch[/mention] I'd like to hear your latest thoughts on Iaafr

Epi's put forwards the argument that rabbit potentially being the doublevoter actually makes them look worse, not better

Should I be scumreading Epi or Rabbit more for this? 'cause right now I'm reading that as reflecting quite badly on Epi

I do think my Rabbit read should be a little less secure given that he hasn't actually got a good reason to be not voting D1 even if he is the doublevoter, but IMO Epi's argument here boils down to "If they're mechanically confirmed town that just makes them look worse", which is absolutely garbage.