The Syndicate

no I don't

[VOTE: Radishes] aubergine

ah fuck I have to pick

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:54 pm I've been in F3 twice. Once as scum, once as town. Won both.

*epic Inception music*

This will be MR's greatest challenge yet.

Let's dance. Hope I've got my partner right.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:47 pm I will be taking exactly 10 minutes to read evenstar

So that nobody else has any time to react to your vote? How towny of you.

I vote we all start playing this right now.

Fifteen minutes. Still haven't decided if I mean this vote or not but it's better than no vote.

Was really hoping to have more time for final discussion than this.

[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]
Sprit's here. Sending electronically 'cause my telepathy gland is on the fritz.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:19 pm It's 2:20 am in the morning, i have 4 hours of rest up until now, and i dont drink coffee

please hold while i gather my thoughts and submit my vote

As Epi would say, "make a good decision."

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:46 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:38 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:49 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine

Kind of did this above ^ but will do it again in brief.

Town!Eva = Spinyboo's Mason as per *that* post
Scum!Eva = overall passive and uncertain play

Town!Sprit = insightful posts that show townie thought process
Scum!Sprit = macro-level play is uninspiring; has been laying low

Say, Radishes, can you point at a specific example of an insightful post from Sprityo?

He also made a good point in D3 about...something about how a MK could have been chosen by a scum who hadn't advanced to the new level. (A few people were speculating on the choice of Nook, I think, and using it only against the people in our level.)

I also feel post 18 in this thread showed some good thought. But now it stands out a bit since there hasn't been the same level of follow up.

I'm not sure if I can give Sprityo towncred for speculating that the mafia kill could have been on the orders of someone who didn't advance when if he's a mafioso he knows damn well whether or not that happened.

What do you feel was insightful in 18?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:46 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am also @Evenstar if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.

It seems pretty clear the mafia wanted to break up the towncore of me/pawn/rabbit and therefore pushed/killed the weak link. What's your hypothesis?

If I'm scum and there's a towncore I want to break up, I don't MK the weakest link, I MK the strongest.

... unless you believe there is a doctor. Also, I was talking about a potential pawn lynch here: I don't think many scumteams are brave enough to just outright gladiate an obvious townie.

Yeah, one-hour-left nerves are starting to creep in here too.

Oh, and [mention]sprityo[/mention]
You were asking why I would ever reverse my reads at LyLo? Here's a recent MU article that basically sums up why:

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ost3623732

I think this article's advice is pretty much applicable to any lategame situation where you're still alive and Town.

(Aside from the doublevoter thing.)

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:49 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine

Kind of did this above ^ but will do it again in brief.

Town!Eva = Spinyboo's Mason as per *that* post
Scum!Eva = overall passive and uncertain play

Town!Sprit = insightful posts that show townie thought process
Scum!Sprit = macro-level play is uninspiring; has been laying low

Say, Radishes, can you point at a specific example of an insightful post from Sprityo?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:07 pm Off on a tangent: the game's not ending with this lynch, right? That would be unfair on everyone else.

Curious to see where we go next.

Seems unlikely, yeah. Hopefully somewhere with open votes.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:10 pm A couple quick things I feel compelled to respond to:

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:00 am I think this is >75% likely to be total bullshit and you're just hoping I don't recall Jack's reads of you well, but unfortunately I don't recall Jack's reads super well and your name sounds like Rabbit's. Having been kinda checked out on D2 is not helping either.

We'll have to agree to disagree about Jack's read on me (but I'm right). He kept his cards close to his chest, but he definitely mentioned on multiple occasions finding me scummy, although at times I slipped out of his bottom 3.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:19 am In retrospect, I also feel that the Nova lynch was far too safe and unanimous for Nova to have actually been scum.

Agreed. And even though Sprit was the clear second option, it didn't really surprise me to see Nova dropped. Something about the thread feel made me feel that was the preferred lynch despite plenty of people putting Sprit in their bottom 3.

What that means about Sprit, I don't know. Could easily be v/v; could potentially still be w/v. I mean, I suppose a world exists where the mafia, knowing the lynch will return to the previous level rather than die, pile on Nova to avoid suspicions after he survives the lynch or something. But that's a bit out there.

Yeah, no, I think it's pretty damn certain that Nova was town.

Having thought more about things overnight and done some processing, I think that you are more likely to have a correct recollection of what Jack was doing, but the potential associative is damning enough that you might risk a lie if you're scum. My bullshit meter has dropped a bit, though, and your willingness to consider Sprityo is worth something, though a scum you might have started to worry that your tunnel looked fake...



I think so far you've given better answers than Sprityo has, even though you've been annoyed by my pushing you on things that you felt were unfair. You feel invested and present in the thread, while Sprityo's ducked the question of why he wasn't lynched and then answered with "eh I dunno."

Some other people on D3 - I think it was Pawn again, maybe also Iaafr - also described Sprityo as "flat" or "lifeless". I really didn't see it at the time, because of Sprit's outburst at EoD2, but... Now that I'm up close and personal with him, I can see what they were saying. It's not that he doesn't have or express emotions, it's that he doesn't feel like he's invested in and playing the same game as me. He's very self-effacing, rolls his eyes at my calling him a "competent but quiet player", and went out of his way to ask "why are you alive" at the beginning of the day while pre-emptively defending himself against accusations that he ought not to be. He also felt like he had to justify not voting someone, and said that he "felt he didn't need to apply pressure on anyone." This... doesn't feel like someone who's solving.

On the other hand, I'm still like 50-50 on you just blatantly lying to me.

Both of you have plausible worlds. I feel like Sprityo's is a bit more of a stretch than yours, but neither of you are really ruled out. The votal itself does give me some useful information in that I now know that Sprityo tagged me with a vote at the end of D1, something I had honestly completely forgotten. Your vote on Dragomir is also a good look.

Considering other people's reads... I should likely discard Epignosis, because he's very probable scum, alas. Pawn had misgivings about both you and Sprityo, IIRC. Rabbit would vouch for you, but not for Sprityo...

*flicks through her notes again*

- wait,

Dom: {Rabbit, Radish, Jack}
Pawn: {Colin, Dom, Jack}
Radish: {Jack, Sprit, ???}
Epi: {Colin, Rabbit, Jack}
Rabbit: {Jack, Dom, Colin}
Colin: {Jack, Rabbit, Dom}
Sprityo: {Jack, Rabbit, Colin}
Jack: {Pawn, Radish, Rabbit}

lol ok that explains some things

This looks to be from early D3

so yeah, I was wrong re: Jack, I apologize

... you're unclear here, Sprityo is voting for Colin, (the lynch/kill), Rabbit, (who might as well be conftown), and Jack. (Who was obvious MLbait imo, but could still be scum.)

Epi is voting Colin, Rabbit, Jack too. I don't know the order of that but I don't like it.

- let me glance back at my earlier chart again, if Epi is scum I want to do the opposite of what he was advocating.

... Epi ends the day with Sprityo in his bottom three, but I would bet a good chunk of change he voted Pawn.

...

.... yeah, you are correct that this is not helpful. I need to focus on what you and Sprityo have done today, not retreat into mech that feels solid but has tons of assumptions baked in.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:13 pm I'm not feeling the worldbuilding, to be honest, Eva. There's way too much WIFOM in it for my liking, and I've already spotted a couple leaps in logic I'm not sure I agree with. (I think this is NAI for you, to be clear.)

But if it helps you, I suppose you do you.

I'd appreciate it if you'd explain where you think my process is faulty, here.

*one of the scum on 112 is either Jack or Epi, sorry.

Straight color-by-max-depth looks like this:
Cyan: Layer 1.
Blue: Layer 2.
Purple: Layer 3.
Pink: Limbo.

[10] Dragomir - Benson, nutella, vanity., Long Con, Master Radishes, Hyena, Trustworthy Liberal, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Pawn Lelouch, juliets
[7] 112 - Creature, Evenstar, TonyStarkPrime, novaselinenever, Elephant, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005
[3] Evenstar - Texas Cloverleaf, sprityo, Quin
[2] Hyena - Dom, Michelle
[2] No Lynch - iaafr, Spiny Creature
[1] Epignosis - MacDougall
[1] MacDougall - Dragomir
[1] nutella - Lady LambdaDelta
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - 112
No Vote: ColinIsCool, [Player #30]

Here's what I get when I slot in flips and clears:
(Green for town, red for scum)

[10] Dragomir- Benson, nutella, vanity., Long Con, Master Radishes, Hyena, Trustworthy Liberal, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME,Pawn Lelouch, juliets
[7] 112 - Creature, Evenstar, TonyStarkPrime, novaselinenever, Elephant, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005
[3] Evenstar - Texas Cloverleaf, sprityo, Quin
[2] Hyena - Dom, Michelle
[2] No Lynch - iaafr, Spiny Creature
[1] Epignosis - MacDougall
[1] MacDougall - Dragomir
[1] nutella - Lady LambdaDelta
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - 112
No Vote: ColinIsCool, [Player #30]

Quin and Michelle are not scum together, Mac and 112 are not scum together. There is probably at least 1 scum on Drago and 2-3 on 112, with the remainder off-wagon. We know one of the scum on Drago is either Jack or Epi, so the other(s) must be in {Creature, Tony, Elephant.} The busser is in {Radishes, Benson, Vanity, Long Con, TL, juliets}. The remaining 2-3 scum are off-wagon in {Sprityo, Quin, Michelle, Mac, 112, Texas.} This makes a Sprityo world a 112 world and a Radish world a Texas world, due to the scumteam likely preferring to leave someone competent behind on each layer. I honestly don't recall all of the associative work I did here to get the final teams after explaining the rest of it and doing the BBcode for the colors, but at least y'all can have my data and I'll answer questions to the best of my ability. *sweatdrop*

There are four levels to this dream. We know there's probably about a 1/4 scum-to-town ratio in all of them, and it's pretty clear that scum have been descending deeper on their way towards this Final 3. We also know that the higher/lower levels still exist and keep playing due to JJJ's mess-up with the Spiny lynch.

I'm also sticking with my assumption that the scum can pick the people from their team that they want to send deeper, because otherwise they could end up with an inactive like Quin as their rep at final 3 just from sheer bad luck.

So the layer breakdown ends up looking like this:

Limbo: Exactly 1 Scum
Radishes
Sprityo
Evenstar

Layer 3: Started with 9 players, so likely 2 scum. One scum is now in Limbo, so there's one left here.
Epi
Jack
Dom
Rabbit
Pawn
Colin

Layer 2: Started with 16 players, so at max 4 scum. At least two of them continue on to higher levels, so there are 1-2 scum left here.
Macdougall
112
Michelle
Quin
LLD
Novaselinenever
Nanook

Layer 1: Started with 30 players, so at max 8 scum.
I think Pawn is correct that 8 is too large for team scum, though; probably one or two of those are 3ps. I went with Pawn's estimate of six team scum both because that seems more correct and because it's accurate to the movie, so there ought to be 2-3 scum left here. Note that this includes Dragomir, who is dead scum.

Benson
Vanity
Trustworthy Liberal
juliets
Creature
Nutella
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime
Texas
Elephant
[Player Whose Name Is Lost To The Mists Of Time]
Hyena
Spiny Creature
Dragomir

As you can see, names in the lower layers have much less chance of being scum, and in some of the higher layers there are few enough uncleared people that we can say things like "it's 100% certain that either Jack or Epi is scum."

We can then take these associative pools of "at max two scum in these four people" and put them on top of the one actual vote tally we've got.

People I have removed from contention and why:
Evenstar: I'm town.
Dom: Makes no sense as a partner to either Radishes or Sprityo.
Rabbit: If he were scum, he would be here now, pocketing me. Also, Pawn would likely not be dead.
ColinisCool: Died last night and we still went to F3.
Pawn Lelouch: Died last night and we still went to F3.
Lady Lambdadelta: Never, ever stays in Layer 2 if she has a choice.
Novaselinenever: Was a lazy consensus lynch which faced little to no opposition.
NanookTheConqueror: Was almost certainly nightkilled.
Hyena: Always advances to deeper levels if he has a choice.

I also removed Nutella based on my heavy townread on her from D1, but now that I type that out I realize it's not a good reason. She could be scum in Sprityo's "Benson or Vanity" slot.

I went through my notes again, and I didn't find anything useful from D2 or D3, but I did find my saved votal from D1. So let's have a look at it.

[10] Dragomir - Benson, nutella, vanity., Long Con, Master Radishes, Hyena, Trustworthy Liberal, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Pawn Lelouch, juliets
[7] 112 - Creature, Evenstar, TonyStarkPrime, novaselinenever, Elephant, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005
[3] Evenstar - Texas Cloverleaf, sprityo, Quin
[2] Hyena - Dom, Michelle
[2] No Lynch - iaafr, [boo/Spiny Creature]
[1] Epignosis - MacDougall
[1] MacDougall - Dragomir
[1] nutella - Lady LambdaDelta
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - 112
No Vote: [Rej/ColinIsCool], [Player #30]

Coloring it based on my current reads sans Sprityo and Radish...
Green for "mech clear", cyan for "townread"
Red for "mech scum", orange for "scumread"

[10] Dragomir- Benson, nutella, vanity., Long Con, Master Radishes, Hyena, Trustworthy Liberal, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Pawn Lelouch, juliets
[7] 112 - Creature, Evenstar, TonyStarkPrime, novaselinenever, Elephant, Epignosis, Jackofhearts2005
[3] Evenstar - Texas Cloverleaf, sprityo, Quin
[2] Hyena - Dom, Michelle
[2] No Lynch - iaafr, [Spiny Creature/boo]
[1] Epignosis - MacDougall
[1] MacDougall - Dragomir
[1] nutella - Lady LambdaDelta
[1] Trustworthy Liberal - 112
No Vote: Rej/ColinIsCool, [Player #30]

This feels bad to horrible for multiple reasons. Not enough scum on 112, LLD does not advance as scum, overall this cannot be the world.

Okay, I went and did some fucking proper analysis on this and it's cool.

My full scumteam guesses at this point are:

Sprityo World:
Sprityo
Epignosis
112
Quin or Michelle
TonyStarkPrime
Benson or Vanity

Radishes World:
Radishes
Epi or Jack
Quin or Michelle
TonyStarkPrime
Texas Cloverleaf
Elephant or Creature

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:43 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:33 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:28 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:24 am I think my decision here may come down to whether Pawn was lynched or killed. Only Radish had motive to NK Colin, and only Sprityo had motive to lynch him.

Are you referring to motive as a "need to kill" or a motive as in "possibility to vote." And if so why would i need Pawn lynched? What is my motive?

Only you had motive to lynch Colin, sorry, it's phrased confusingly. Any scumteam would have preferred to lynch Pawn, IMO: a Colin lynch feels like a safety play, the kind of thing that you would pile on if one of your team members was under significant pressure.

Understandable. But I still have the same question:

What is my direct motive, my personal motive for lynching Colin? Not a hypothetical scumteam situation. Colin, (much like how I was to pawn) was there out of virtue of following the rules of needing three people to vote.

My instincts say "self-preservation", but when I actually think about it, that makes no sense. If you literally didn't care who got lynched so long as it wasn't you, you'd almost certainly have gone for Jack over Colin, given their relative positions.

I could hypothesize a scumteam of you and Jack, but I don't think the day we got yesterday reflects that. If you and Jack were both scum, I would have expected to see a lot more attempts from both of you to change or get out of the PoE. Jack's activity did kick up, but I don't think that's enough to make this world plausible. My brain just wants to reduce all the complexity here to a simple, binary choice that I can get right, and that's never how the real world works.

Anyway, goodnight!

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:33 am

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:28 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:24 am I think my decision here may come down to whether Pawn was lynched or killed. Only Radish had motive to NK Colin, and only Sprityo had motive to lynch him.

Are you referring to motive as a "need to kill" or a motive as in "possibility to vote." And if so why would i need Pawn lynched? What is my motive?

Only you had motive to lynch Colin, sorry, it's phrased confusingly. Any scumteam would have preferred to lynch Pawn, IMO: a Colin lynch feels like a safety play, the kind of thing that you would pile on if one of your team members was under significant pressure.

Though I guess that doesn't exactly rule out Jack/Radishes, on reflection.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:28 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:24 am I think my decision here may come down to whether Pawn was lynched or killed. Only Radish had motive to NK Colin, and only Sprityo had motive to lynch him.

Are you referring to motive as a "need to kill" or a motive as in "possibility to vote." And if so why would i need Pawn lynched? What is my motive?

Only you had motive to lynch Colin, sorry, it's phrased confusingly. Any scumteam would have preferred to lynch Pawn, IMO: a Colin lynch feels like a safety play, the kind of thing that you would pile on if one of your team members was under significant pressure.

it's 4:30 AM here btw

so yeah, @Sprityo it'd be great if you could engage with Radishes' case and stuff so I can see what you have to say in the morning

I think my decision here may come down to whether Pawn was lynched or killed. Only Radish had motive to NK Colin, and only Sprityo had motive to lynch him.

Okay, rerunning my earlier "why was Colin killed if Pawn was lynched" analysis, this time with Jack hating Radishes' turnipy guts... the entire first section is still correct. The Radish/Jack team becomes less likely, but can definitely still exist 'cause distancing is a thing.

Reviewing the kill motive section, I notice that I have completely forgotten Dom exists. Whoops. Let's pencil that in, shall we?

Kill likelihood in the Jack/Radish scenario stays the same, since no reads external to the team have changed. Dom is useful to them because he scumreads me and Rabbit, so he's never NK'd imo.

Epi/Sprityo is if anything pushed more towards killing me or Rabbit, because Jack could be convinced to ML Radish more easily and therefore the pair can stay. I think this team kills Rabbit every time under these assumptions. As for the Dom question... I think they leave him alive as a fellow Syndi who's likely to draw votes off the relatively quieter Sprityo, especially as Epi has him pocketed.

Epi/Radish is the most interesting. In this world, the scum are faced with a real dilemma:

Kill Rabbit (Scumreads Epi, townreads Radish.)
Kill Eva (Scumreads both Radish & Epi.)
Kill Sprityo (ML Bait, favorable reads.)
Kill Jack (ML Bait, scumreads Radish.)
Kill Colin (ML Bait? Unclear reads.)
Kill Dom (ML Bait, favorable reads.)

Interestingly, Colin in this situation is damn near unlynchable, because the only two townies who are willing to vote him are fellow ML-Baits Jack and Sprityo, and in a F3 that looks like Jack/Colin/Radish or Sprityo/Colin/Epi, the obviously strongest player of the three probably gets lynched more often than not. If Epi/Radish were concerned about a potential JK/Doctor, I can see them killing Colin here, especially since it comes with the side benefit of making the Pawn lynch look like a nightkill.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:14 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:08 pm I'm off for the night. Another 24 hours shift tomorrow. Leave me questions if you have any and i'll be able to respond in the next 12 hours more than likely.

Why weren't you lynched yesterday?

Sprityo's been back in thread and answered another of my questions, but hasn't answered this.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:49 pm Yeesh. I hate writing long posts. Taking a break.


So, in a sentence or two, what's your guys' life stories?

"My life is weird and my work is never over."

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:55 am --D2 he was one of the slankers, and was generally ignored until closer to the end. I think I was the one to first raise this. Sprit…again didn’t really have much of a response. But as I recall it, Nova and Sprit became the two real wagons by EoD2. My sense of the thread at that point was that it was 50/50. The fact Sprit remained could suggest the scum voted Nova (presumably as a bloc, since it’s private). This is interesting, as if it was a v/v situation why did they choose to help lynch the bigger slanker? It could indicate Sprit was a wolf wagon in this situation.

It's worth noting that Nova had a terrible EoD vote on D1, which made them part of the 112 wagon, which IMO scum would by-default want to avoid resolving. Sprityo was off in the weeds somewhere at the EoD1 as far as I recall.

In retrospect, I also feel that the Nova lynch was far too safe and unanimous for Nova to have actually been scum.

It's also worth noting that Sprityo's ducked a serious chance of being lynched twice now. His wagon at EoD3 is very much one of the frontrunners: both Colin and Pawn are trailing him. I think scum moved off his wagon in favour of Pawn or Colin: the question is why.

In the world where Pawn is lynched, it's because Sprityo is less of a threat. In the world where Colin is lynched, it's because Sprityo is scum. I think it's convenient that Sprityo believes Pawn was lynched.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:00 am

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:21 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:13 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm Radish/Jack: Possible.
Radish's flip-flopping on Jack suggests that this could be the case, especially when combined with Jack's very strong town read on Radish for no discernible reason. Jack is a frontrunner in the voting, but is not lynched.

You have, once again, misremembered.

Jack had a scumread on me for the majority of D2/D3. I think near the end I slipped up into the 'middle' but he never had a 'very strong town read' on me. For the majority of our time with him he scumread me.

You may need to re-do your entire analysis now.

No, that was Rabbit.

'Bullshit, you're the voyeur!'

No, but seriously, Jack SRed me for most of the past two phases. He so rarely explained his reads that they switched without us noticing sometimes, but egotistical as I am I watch for my name, and he definitely had me in his bottom 3 on several occasions, stretching back to the beginning of D2 when I'm pretty sure he was the first to do so as a result of my vote analysis.

I think this is >75% likely to be total bullshit and you're just hoping I don't recall Jack's reads of you well, but unfortunately I don't recall Jack's reads super well and your name sounds like Rabbit's. Having been kinda checked out on D2 is not helping either.

I'll go through my notes again just in case I happen to have something helpful, and I'll rerun my earlier analysis assuming your world just in case magic happens. If you want to prod me about anything else specific, go ahead.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:58 am Evenstar, do you want to keep going back and forth? I feel like we've quickly reached a point where we're mainly flat out disagreeing with each other and there's no real room for continued discussion. But let me know if you want particular responses from me.

For the record, I am taking your responses seriously. Several have even, I daresay, been good, and have made me reconsider some angles I was tunneling into. And a Sprityo world fits a bit too well with how D2/D3 has unfolded.

Yesterday was my 'it's definitely Eva' day. Today I plan to mull over Sprit more closely.

I'm frustrated, but I would prefer to keep talking given the off chance you're town, which I do think is still possible.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:59 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:26 pm I distinctly recall Jack started D3 with {Epi, Rabbit, Colin}.
sprityo, am I misremembering?

In truth I don’t take notes. I happened to just make that vote list yesterday in google sheets


So I can’t remember what jack’s votes were s the start. If anything I looked through his ISO for day 3 and couldn’t find a legitimate 3 people he listed. So I made a crapshoot. Soon after posting that table jack corrected me on what his pool was, which I assume he kept until EOD.

I distinctly recall Jack started D3 with {Epi, Rabbit, Colin}.
[mention]sprityo[/mention], am I misremembering?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:13 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm Radish/Jack: Possible.
Radish's flip-flopping on Jack suggests that this could be the case, especially when combined with Jack's very strong town read on Radish for no discernible reason. Jack is a frontrunner in the voting, but is not lynched.

You have, once again, misremembered.

Jack had a scumread on me for the majority of D2/D3. I think near the end I slipped up into the 'middle' but he never had a 'very strong town read' on me. For the majority of our time with him he scumread me.

You may need to re-do your entire analysis now.

No, that was Rabbit.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:20 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm I'm going to assume the scum can at least pick which of their own goes to the next level.

This is an interesting thought. I've wondered the same.

What scum team chooses Sprityo to go 'all the way'? He's collectively scumread by many players. Unless his partner was, like, Colin, Sprit is not their ace in the hole. (No offence Sprit, that's not a comment on your ability so much as on your position this game.)

Also, coming back to this: Sprityo is damn near an IC at this point because he's too visibly unskilled to have gotten here on purpose. This makes him extremely unlikely to get lynched, and therefore, paradoxically, a great selection to put in a F3. 112 lurked out three days in WC1 by looking too harmless/not-on-the-ball to be scum.

So yeah, I'm paranoid. Doubly so because Sprityo definitely has some skill: he's not a poor player, he's a competent-but-quiet one.

Radishes, I get that time zones suck. Nonetheless, I would expect you to have been around for some significant event over the week-and-a-bit this game's been running, if only because I expect you to go out and make one yourself if none are conveniently available.

I will grant you that you did give warning you wouldn't be here for EoD yesterday. I honestly don't recall if you did earlier than that, but I'll give it to you.

Also, accusations of "narrative"...
1: Are a fully general counterargument to anything I say you don't like. "Part of the narrative of me being scum."
2: Much like the accusation "You're being whiny", can only make me look worse if I try to contest them. (Particularly as I have a reputation already.)
3: Make it difficult for me to take your responses seriously, because it seems like the kind of obvious ploy that a scum would use to try to discredit legitimate suspicion, especially in an environment where the facts are inaccessible.

So, I'm just going to ignore that argument and hope you're courteous enough to find better ones. Alright?

[mention]Master Radishes[/mention]
1: Yep, I've been slanking, I agree. I have made no secret of my deep dislike of this game's secret-voting mechanics, and frankly that makes me not wanna play the game. Lexi got hit even harder than I did: I think she something like 7-posted D2. Does that mean she's scum?

2: I happen to enjoy running weird games like this: naturally my thoughts turned to "how was this designed?" And if you don't expect me to be dumping my stream of consciousness into the game, IDK who you think you're playing with.

3: I would like to note the hypocrisy of your complaining about my not being aggressive enough while simultaneously complaining about how I'm being unfair to you by bringing up things you think are trivial. Not to mention this is literally just a restatement of 1.

4: Pawn and I have an understanding that this is just our meta. I get it looks weird, but this literally happens in every game we're together in. In Dragon Ball M(afia) I went full bulldog on him: I outed him as the Gunsmith and then got mislynched for my troubles.

Yeah.

5: Blah blah D2. Yes, I slanked through D2. You have repeated this argument three times.

6: I guess the Sprityo point's worth addressing. Dom and Colin were not doing significant bullwork. Sprityo was: when he appeared in the thread he generally had something real to say, while the others tended more towards fluff (Michelle, Colin) or directionless aggro (Dom). I do recall saying I wanted to nail you to a wall if Sprit flipped green, but that's because I-believe-it-was-Epi asked "why do you care about Radishes' read of Sprityo?"

You had been fence-sitting and pushing Sprityo from a distance, without voting: I wanted you to publicly commit to the lynch you were sponsoring. You didn't.

7: Still the same accusation from 1. Get better and more varied material.

8: Yep, vote looks bad, not contesting that.

9: Wine argument, requires me to have killed both Nook and Pawn while they were deeply pocketed.

10:

Seriously, you think that I thought you read Sprityo as in the same tier of scumminess as me? You've been on my ass since like D2 by your own admission, and you're tunneling me despite both Pawn and Spiny's better judgment. If you're town, I think we just lose at this point. I don't see how I could possibly convince you given all the evidence you're selectively ignoring.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:20 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm I'm going to assume the scum can at least pick which of their own goes to the next level.

This is an interesting thought. I've wondered the same.

What scum team chooses Sprityo to go 'all the way'? He's collectively scumread by many players. Unless his partner was, like, Colin, Sprit is not their ace in the hole. (No offence Sprit, that's not a comment on your ability so much as on your position this game.)

A scum team may choose me, but I've faced my share of heat as well. There was a point where I was the most widely scumread player. I may not have been at EoD3, but I was certainly not strongly townread. I was an 'eh, probably not' sort of read. If my teammate is any of Rabbit, Epi, or even Pawn, they're likely here instead of me. Heck, possibly even Dom.

A scum team could very well choose Eva. She was widely townread except by one vegetable. That seems like a solid choice.



It's interesting you assume this because I think if anything it points to you more than Sprit.

Interesting how you outright acknowledge that you're more likely scum than me, and are trying to get me lynched for being too shiny.

Moreover, why are you not dead? If I am scum, and you're the only person scumreading me, why did I not put a bullet in your skull last night? Was I that scared of Pawn after pocketing him for three days running?

1: We've both played on MU, and are therefore more similar than an MU player and a Syndicate player. I expect you to be more legible to me than Epignosis, not less.

2: If you don't claim to know how my brain works, why is so much of your case against me based on your meta read of me? You're saying you don't understand me in the same breath that you're asserting I clearly did X, Y, Z. You acknowledge that your argument based on nightkills is heavily wine-based, but you still devote several paragraphs to it. Is this not an assertion that you know how my mind works well enough that others should listen?

You don't know me, Radish. You know my reputation.

3: Oh, so it's kosher for you to toss in a comment like "*coughfightingforsurvivalcough*" in your counterargument, but it's not okay for me to describe your actions in the ways that I percieved them? It was a hasty backpedal, and I was not the only player to call you out for it.

4: If you believe in your team so much, why are you trusting your gut over the single player in this game who knows me best, who just ate the nightkill?

5: I still don't understand your handling of the Spiny post, and I'm really looking forward to a proper answer there.

6: That discussion was in D3. I was the one who prompted Pawn to take a look at his PoE, because overnight I'd developed the feeling that we'd dunked town in Nova because it was too easy. You didn't prompt Pawn to do jack shit: you did take a look at Jack at around that point because I and Pawn were re-evaluating him. Wishing I had the thread right now.

7: Sure, I'll accept that. Now go through the reasons why you settled on Jack above Pawn again, slowly. Really spell it out for me, because I don't see how you can claim that Pawn deserved to die more than Jack. That is a terrible read.

8: Okay, you were townreading Epi at the start of the day. The question remains: Why didn't you try to break up the obviously unproductive argument between two of your townreads?

9: Yes, it's quite convenient how you were absent for EoD.

10: I read Jack as town and then you read Jack as town. Epi reads Pawn as scum and then you read Pawn as scum. I literally cannot think of an original read you've confidently expressed: even your scumread of me was originally voiced by Hyena IIRC.

11: It is extremely convenient that you have just happened to not be in the thread during every major argument. There's been what, five or six of them now? Nutella vs me, Dom & Epi vs Rabbit, Pawn vs Epi, LLD vs. Epi, etc, etc. At some point, this stops looking like limited playtime and starts looking like conflict avoidance.

12: No, they haven't. That's the point. You spent 90% of D3 going "ennnnhhhhh town I guess" in Pawn's direction at roughly the same volume, and only actually changed your read of him after he'd had major interactions with both Epi and me. What were you doing with that read? How were you trying to make it more settled? "Ambiguous" is a word I chose carefully, because it did not read to me as you waffling or being unable to read those players: it read to me as you not really trying to read those players. You've very much relied on other people to go out and do the real investigative work for you.

13: Fair enough regarding the difficulty of producing content in that thread environment. I would still like you to address the fall-off though.

14: Could have sworn I pinged you like three times for reasons and updated readslists in D3. It's possible that Pawn got to it before I did.

15: Yes, I am in fact trying to scrape up every single even mildly scummy thing you've done and throw them in your face, just like I'm trying to do the same for Sprityo. The fact that there are many, many more of them for you than for Sprityo seems pretty indicative to me.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:13 am I won't make that a big point. It's more so interesting. Situational Awareness if you will.

So then if we are to believe that this is reality, why did the mafia kill Colin?

In this world we have...
Radishes
Eva
Sprityo

Epi
Dom
Jack
Iaafr

~~Colin~~
~~Pawn~~

If one person in this group is scum, then that strongly implies there's exactly one scum in the group of people who got left behind, because there were probably two yesterday and they ain't both here.

So there's one scum in Sprityo/Radishes and one scum in Epi/Dom/Jack/Iaafr.

Possible Scumteams:
Radish/Rabbit
Radish/Jack
Radish/Dom
Radish/Epi

Sprityo/Rabbit
Sprityo/Jack
Sprityo/Dom
Sprityo/Epi

Okay, let's crunch this. I'm going to assume the scum can at least pick which of their own goes to the next level.

Radish/Rabbit
Rabbit is town, and if he wasn't he'd be here pocketing me.

Radish/Jack: Possible.
Radish's flip-flopping on Jack suggests that this could be the case, especially when combined with Jack's very strong town read on Radish for no discernible reason. Jack is a frontrunner in the voting, but is not lynched.

Radish/Dom In this case there's been some pretty hardcore distancing going on, in that I can't recall the two ever actually interacting. IME no scum team ever is that disciplined: two players actually not talking to each other for the whole game is a very strong indicator they're not W/W. Also, I cannot imagine Dom having that level of control.

Radish/Epi: Possible. Radish's weird slide of a read on Epi and Epi's "meh" read on Radish read like distancing to me. This pair also had good reason to want Pawn dead, as he suspected Epi and was being listened to.

Sprityo/Rabbit Rabbit is not here pocketing me.

Sprityo/Jack Nothing team, would not get here.

Sprityo/Dom Nothing team, would not get here.

Sprityo/Epi: Possible, even plausible. Epi never really pursued his Sprityo case, so it could be distancing. This pair has very good reason to want Pawn dead. Sprityo is a frontrunner in the voting, but Pawn or Colin is lynched.


So if the three possible pairs are:
Jack/Radish
Epi/Radish
Epi/Sprityo

And if we assume Pawn was lynched...
1. Who had means?
Basically any of these three teams.

2. Who had motive?
All three, but Epi/Radish less so than the others, as neither partner needed the lynch pushed off them.

But that implies Colin was killed. Who would have motive for that?

In that case, Epi/Sprityo is looking at:
Colin
Jack
Rabbit
Eva
Radishes

They never kill Colin. They want to rand me or another Syndicate member. They kill Radishes or Rabbit.

Jack/Radish is looking at:
Colin
Rabbit
Eva
Epi
Sprityo

They kill... a Syndicate member. My instinct goes to Epi, but if they rand me or Rabbit with Epi then they likely win just by laying low in the crossfire. They want that. So they kill Colin or Sprityo. There's a chance of them pulling the me-and-rabbit pair if the advancement is completely random save the NK, but my gut says it's not. This could be the world we are in.

Epi/Radish is looking at:
Colin
Rabbit
Eva
Jack
Sprityo

Epi/Radish kills me or Rabbit. They never kill Colin.

So if Colin is dead of a nightkill, the upper-two-levels scumteam is exactly Jack and Radish.

Huh.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:08 pm I'm off for the night. Another 24 hours shift tomorrow. Leave me questions if you have any and i'll be able to respond in the next 12 hours more than likely.

Why weren't you lynched yesterday?

So I got a reply back from Sloonei, and they said:
1: Censor your own row in the chart. (OK, sure, it's not like I'm posting anything tbat wasn't already public information though...)
2: Don't push other players to confirm/deny things about their vote. (duh)

'cause now I only have my phone I had to get a little creative:



At the time of this chart, total potential votes disregarding mine were:
Jack: 5
Sprityo: 5
Pawn: 3.5
Colin: 3
Dom: 3
Rabbit: 2.5
Epi: 2
Radish: Zilch
Me: Nada

So...

I don't know how much discussion of the implications here I can do out loud before it starts being pressure-to-infodump or infodumping, but there are certainly a number of things worth noting here.

*this game's

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:45 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:39 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:21 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:28 am Radishes, uncertainty means I don't have TMI. Go look at the ridiculous confidence with which I pushed the X Cult thing, for a start.

The vote is a bad look, I agree. I wouldn't read into the kills like that though, because I know Lexi, Mac and you all have enough meta on me to frame me. Also, do you really think I would let both Lexi and Pawn persist in the same game with me for more than one daycycle? That's seriously bad juju, man.

Eh. You had confidence in the Finale and were town. You had confidence of D1 in this game. The uncertainty I could forgive on D2 for awhile because, you know, it took us by surprise, but aside from a brief attack on Pawn you’ve come across as very passive, and that is not a look I’m used to seeing on you (with admittedly a low amount of meta). I think ‘passive’ is better than ‘uncertain’ here as a term, though.

Oh, in that case read me in Mountainous Bulletproof on MU. (As Lady Eventide; technically a hydra with my my girlfriend but that's mostly so I can talk to her about the game without breaking OGI rules.) What you're seeing here is what I look like when I'm slanking.

Well, I can't criticise that. I'm a bit slanky myself; my time is limited to a 1 hour window each morning and 2-ish hour window (with interruptions) each evening, and my wife is starting to get annoyed I'm not spending more time with her in the evenings.

Do you have a link to that game?

I don't have time to respond to everything before going to uni but I can at least drop you this link.

I think my subbing into a game with almost no flips is a surprisingly good comparison to today's D2/3/4, in retrospect.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:21 pm

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:28 am Radishes, uncertainty means I don't have TMI. Go look at the ridiculous confidence with which I pushed the X Cult thing, for a start.

The vote is a bad look, I agree. I wouldn't read into the kills like that though, because I know Lexi, Mac and you all have enough meta on me to frame me. Also, do you really think I would let both Lexi and Pawn persist in the same game with me for more than one daycycle? That's seriously bad juju, man.

Eh. You had confidence in the Finale and were town. You had confidence of D1 in this game. The uncertainty I could forgive on D2 for awhile because, you know, it took us by surprise, but aside from a brief attack on Pawn you’ve come across as very passive, and that is not a look I’m used to seeing on you (with admittedly a low amount of meta). I think ‘passive’ is better than ‘uncertain’ here as a term, though.

Oh, in that case read me in Mountainous Bulletproof on MU. (As Lady Eventide; technically a hydra with my my girlfriend but that's mostly so I can talk to her about the game without breaking OGI rules.) What you're seeing here is what I look like when I'm slanking.

PM'd Sloonei, we'll see if he exists

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:50 pm nvm im dumb you just said you couldnt get ahold of him

Did you try sloonei?

no, that's a good point, I will

Was that table of yours from last time an image? I can't seem to get table code to work here

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:32 pm To clarify. MR didnt have a legit bottom three when I left, so i took a look at his ISO and pulled out all the people he had said he had scum reads on. 5 people to be exact with pawn not being one of them

I checked the OP again, and the rules of this level only seem to prohibit me from discussing my own personal vote. JJJ hasn't responded to a prod. Given that you didn't get whacked for posting your chart last level, I'm just gonna assume I can post mine, 'cause I'm leaving for uni in like an hour and I don't know when JJJ'll be around to answer my question.

- linking the spreadsheet would be a bad plan because OGI, let me just convert this to a forum table