The Syndicate

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:58 pm youre telling me to vote evenstar? while she has had sketchy points in and out all game, her play today alone has superceded yours Radishes

If you say so.

Oh well, I don't think the game ends, so.

Go on Eva.

Sprityo, no.

Did you even read my case on Evenstar at all?

Yeah, I'd love to be able to talk to Sprit about his read of me.

Oh well.

I've been in F3 twice. Once as scum, once as town. Won both.

*epic Inception music*

This will be MR's greatest challenge yet.

Have opened it in another tab and am doing so now.

This actually makes me miss votes-locked-in LYLO. At least the pain is over quickly.

10 mins with 11 mins left. Keeping this as dramatic as possible, I see.

Who wants to go first?

BWWWOOONNNGGGGGG

I'm here.

I'm going to take a few minutes to step away. Send me a telepathic missive if Sprit shows up.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:38 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:49 am
sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine
Kind of did this above ^ but will do it again in brief.

Town!Eva = Spinyboo's Mason as per *that* post
Scum!Eva = overall passive and uncertain play

Town!Sprit = insightful posts that show townie thought process
Scum!Sprit = macro-level play is uninspiring; has been laying low
Say, Radishes, can you point at a specific example of an insightful post from Sprityo?

He also made a good point in D3 about...something about how a MK could have been chosen by a scum who hadn't advanced to the new level. (A few people were speculating on the choice of Nook, I think, and using it only against the people in our level.)

I also feel post 18 in this thread showed some good thought. But now it stands out a bit since there hasn't been the same level of follow up.

Off on a tangent: the game's not ending with this lynch, right? That would be unfair on everyone else.

Curious to see where we go next.

E.g.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:11 am Interestingly, Colin in this situation is damn near unlynchable, because the only two townies who are willing to vote him are fellow ML-Baits Jack and Sprityo, and in a F3 that looks like Jack/Colin/Radish or Sprityo/Colin/Epi, the obviously strongest player of the three probably gets lynched more often than not. If Epi/Radish were concerned about a potential JK/Doctor, I can see them killing Colin here, especially since it comes with the side benefit of making the Pawn lynch look like a nightkill.

Why do you think no one is willing to vote Colin? He's in everyone's PoE to some extent, regardless of people's reads on each other. And anyway, Colin was sheeping me and calling me town, so he's someone I as scum would be happy to have with my in F3.

Also, why does the 'obviously strongest player' likely get lynched? I don't think either Jack or Sprit are going to give in to paranoia. Epi could make a good case for either one and convince the other easily, I think. I like to think I'd hold my own as well.

But I don't plan to get into a discussion about this. I don't find worldbuilding like this helpful, as it's all just speculation. Keep doing it if you want, but it's not how I plan to spend these final hours.

sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:40 am
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:55 am
--D1 he made an opening post that was basically fluff, e.g. ‘Oh these two people are fighting, I’ll stay out of that’ with no analytical content or anything. I called him on it and several agreed, and Sprit’s response was to basically say he hadn’t intended to be analytical, just a catch up for himself. I still know why he needed to *post* it then.
What's the alternative then, to not participate? To not post anything and remain a lurker. At the minimum content is made and with content comes discussion and analysis. Not necessarily by me, but from the game as a whole? I also do not take notes. So just putting things in a tldr in thread based on my own thoughts at the time is a use for me as well. Albeit this was before we knew about the shenanigans now wasn't it?

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:55 am --D2 he was one of the slankers, and was generally ignored until closer to the end. I think I was the one to first raise this. Sprit…again didn’t really have much of a response. But as I recall it, Nova and Sprit became the two real wagons by EoD2. My sense of the thread at that point was that it was 50/50. The fact Sprit remained could suggest the scum voted Nova (presumably as a bloc, since it’s private). This is interesting, as if it was a v/v situation why did they choose to help lynch the bigger slanker? It could indicate Sprit was a wolf wagon in this situation.

--Sprit had that emotional outburst; that’s a post that is easily faked. He’s certainly seemed calmer since.

I felt my point was made with that post. But a long night with little sleep coupled with my pet peeve of voting without backing really set me off. I couldn't tell you why nova was the wagon over me, perhaps mafia has kept me alive for the sole purpose of having a pocket mislynch. It makes a wine situation after all

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:55 am --In D3 there was more activity, but the quality of contribution remained variable. Aside from a couple insightful moments, which are somewhat NAI anyway, he coasted through without ever really being under the heaviest of fire.

yes
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:55 am --His start this Day has been better. Although now that Eva and I are going at it, he seems content to recede to the background again.

I had my discussion with Evenstar earlier and haven't had anything else to add or say as of recent. Maybe it's my military logic, but straight forward answers will satisfy my questions. Find a problem, solve it. And if you can't you just do your best and/or ask for help.

This defense is...fine? I mean, to be fair, there was little that could be said to some of the points I raised that would 'set the record straight' or anything. But this is still null as a response, I feel.

So. Went through a few of the games sprit posted to show his scum game. None look *exactly* like his game here, but:

--There were a couple where he slanked hard; his few posts looked a bit more analytical than what I remember from D1-D3 in this game, but his activity was nonetheless at the same level.
--There was one where it was the opposite: he was very active, but his posts were short and fluffy.

Basically, inconclusive. But it certainly hasn't ruled this iteration of Sprit out from being scum.

I'm not feeling the worldbuilding, to be honest, Eva. There's way too much WIFOM in it for my liking, and I've already spotted a couple leaps in logic I'm not sure I agree with. (I think this is NAI for you, to be clear.)

But if it helps you, I suppose you do you.

A couple quick things I feel compelled to respond to:

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:00 am I think this is >75% likely to be total bullshit and you're just hoping I don't recall Jack's reads of you well, but unfortunately I don't recall Jack's reads super well and your name sounds like Rabbit's. Having been kinda checked out on D2 is not helping either.

We'll have to agree to disagree about Jack's read on me (but I'm right). He kept his cards close to his chest, but he definitely mentioned on multiple occasions finding me scummy, although at times I slipped out of his bottom 3.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:19 am In retrospect, I also feel that the Nova lynch was far too safe and unanimous for Nova to have actually been scum.

Agreed. And even though Sprit was the clear second option, it didn't really surprise me to see Nova dropped. Something about the thread feel made me feel that was the preferred lynch despite plenty of people putting Sprit in their bottom 3.

What that means about Sprit, I don't know. Could easily be v/v; could potentially still be w/v. I mean, I suppose a world exists where the mafia, knowing the lynch will return to the previous level rather than die, pile on Nova to avoid suspicions after he survives the lynch or something. But that's a bit out there.

On my way home from work. I've been reading during breaks but need to make dinner and such first so I'll be a little while longer. [mention]sprityo[/mention] if you think you need to make a decision before EoD ping me and I'll make time to talk about whatever you may want.

Not enough 'BWONNNGGG' today.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:21 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:13 pm
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm Radish/Jack: Possible.
Radish's flip-flopping on Jack suggests that this could be the case, especially when combined with Jack's very strong town read on Radish for no discernible reason. Jack is a frontrunner in the voting, but is not lynched.
You have, once again, misremembered.

Jack had a scumread on me for the majority of D2/D3. I think near the end I slipped up into the 'middle' but he never had a 'very strong town read' on me. For the majority of our time with him he scumread me.

You may need to re-do your entire analysis now.
No, that was Rabbit.

'Bullshit, you're the voyeur!'

No, but seriously, Jack SRed me for most of the past two phases. He so rarely explained his reads that they switched without us noticing sometimes, but egotistical as I am I watch for my name, and he definitely had me in his bottom 3 on several occasions, stretching back to the beginning of D2 when I'm pretty sure he was the first to do so as a result of my vote analysis.

Evenstar, do you want to keep going back and forth? I feel like we've quickly reached a point where we're mainly flat out disagreeing with each other and there's no real room for continued discussion. But let me know if you want particular responses from me.

For the record, I am taking your responses seriously. Several have even, I daresay, been good, and have made me reconsider some angles I was tunneling into. And a Sprityo world fits a bit too well with how D2/D3 has unfolded.

Yesterday was my 'it's definitely Eva' day. Today I plan to mull over Sprit more closely.

The case against Sprityo

There’s obviously less here, since Sprit has posted less. But let’s see what we got.

--D1 he made an opening post that was basically fluff, e.g. ‘Oh these two people are fighting, I’ll stay out of that’ with no analytical content or anything. I called him on it and several agreed, and Sprit’s response was to basically say he hadn’t intended to be analytical, just a catch up for himself. I still know why he needed to *post* it then.

--D2 he was one of the slankers, and was generally ignored until closer to the end. I think I was the one to first raise this. Sprit…again didn’t really have much of a response. But as I recall it, Nova and Sprit became the two real wagons by EoD2. My sense of the thread at that point was that it was 50/50. The fact Sprit remained could suggest the scum voted Nova (presumably as a bloc, since it’s private). This is interesting, as if it was a v/v situation why did they choose to help lynch the bigger slanker? It could indicate Sprit was a wolf wagon in this situation.

--Sprit had that emotional outburst; that’s a post that is easily faked. He’s certainly seemed calmer since.

--In D3 there was more activity, but the quality of contribution remained variable. Aside from a couple insightful moments, which are somewhat NAI anyway, he coasted through without ever really being under the heaviest of fire.

--His start this Day has been better. Although now that Eva and I are going at it, he seems content to recede to the background again.

Unfortunately that’s about all I remember from Sprit. And a lot of it relies on speculation.

There’s a very plausible world where Sprit is mafia here – it doesn’t take much to imagine it.

[mention]sprityo[/mention] any chance you have a recent game where you were scum (or even town) for us to compare you to?

It's actually midnight now. I do intend to case Sprityo, but it'll have to wait.

Have a lovely day.

Eva, the fact you're actually resorting to the ol' 'how convenient you weren't here for x and y' is not a good look on you. I've never hidden my timezone difference and its effects; I've always mentioned when I might not be around at EoD. This hasn't been a secret. If you really can't think of better arguments then drop them and focus on the ones you think might actually have legs.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:31 pm 1: We've both played on MU, and are therefore more similar than an MU player and a Syndicate player. I expect you to be more legible to me than Epignosis, not less.
Okay. Maybe. I don't think this is a productive discussion, though.

2: If you don't claim to know how my brain works, why is so much of your case against me based on your meta read of me? You're saying you don't understand me in the same breath that you're asserting I clearly did X, Y, Z. You acknowledge that your argument based on nightkills is heavily wine-based, but you still devote several paragraphs to it. Is this not an assertion that you know how my mind works well enough that others should listen?

You don't know me, Radish. You know my reputation.
I agree I know only your reputation. I've said as much. But my case is built on more than just a supposed meta read. It's about your contributions and tone as a player, regardless of the name.

3: Oh, so it's kosher for you to toss in a comment like "*coughfightingforsurvivalcough*" in your counterargument, but it's not okay for me to describe your actions in the ways that I percieved them? It was a hasty backpedal, and I was not the only player to call you out for it.
Sure it's okay - snide comments are part of the fun of scumhunting! I'm just going to point it out when I see you doing it.

If you wish to characterise it that way, I can't stop you.

4: If you believe in your team so much, why are you trusting your gut over the single player in this game who knows me best, who just ate the nightkill?
I trusted them for two Day phases. That's a good amount of time to trust Pawn et al. And yet here you are, still not NKed whilst the player you say knows you best is.

5: I still don't understand your handling of the Spiny post, and I'm really looking forward to a proper answer there.
I gave one.

6: That discussion was in D3. I was the one who prompted Pawn to take a look at his PoE, because overnight I'd developed the feeling that we'd dunked town in Nova because it was too easy. You didn't prompt Pawn to do jack shit: you did take a look at Jack at around that point because I and Pawn were re-evaluating him. Wishing I had the thread right now.
Then you just don't remember Pawn and I talking about it in D2. No worries, it's tough without the thread.

7: Sure, I'll accept that. Now go through the reasons why you settled on Jack above Pawn again, slowly. Really spell it out for me, because I don't see how you can claim that Pawn deserved to die more than Jack. That is a terrible read.
Already did. I listed my best reason for townreading everyone, and for Pawn all I got was 'I like a lot of what he says'. For Jack I had specifics about his tone, his reads, etc. Pawn ended up in my bottom 3 by PoE. I've said this about three times now.

8: Okay, you were townreading Epi at the start of the day. The question remains: Why didn't you try to break up the obviously unproductive argument between two of your townreads?
Because, again, I wasn't here to do so.

9: Yes, it's quite convenient how you were absent for EoD.
Lmao, just admit this is not a point against me.

10: I read Jack as town and then you read Jack as town. Epi reads Pawn as scum and then you read Pawn as scum. I literally cannot think of an original read you've confidently expressed: even your scumread of me was originally voiced by Hyena IIRC.
Just blatantly false or exaggerated. You're constructing narratives as you remember from your perspective. You've shown no real indication that you've actually read any of my posts until this round.

11: It is extremely convenient that you have just happened to not be in the thread during every major argument. There's been what, five or six of them now? Nutella vs me, Dom & Epi vs Rabbit, Pawn vs Epi, LLD vs. Epi, etc, etc. At some point, this stops looking like limited playtime and starts looking like conflict avoidance.
They're called timezones.

12: No, they haven't. That's the point. You spent 90% of D3 going "ennnnhhhhh town I guess" in Pawn's direction at roughly the same volume, and only actually changed your read of him after he'd had major interactions with both Epi and me. What were you doing with that read? How were you trying to make it more settled? "Ambiguous" is a word I chose carefully, because it did not read to me as you waffling or being unable to read those players: it read to me as you not really trying to read those players. You've very much relied on other people to go out and do the real investigative work for you.
This is your narrative and you're sticking to it I guess.

13: Fair enough regarding the difficulty of producing content in that thread environment. I would still like you to address the fall-off though.
Fall off in content? I came in expecting to be able to re-read D1. When I couldn't, I struggled to adapt. I think a lot of us did.

14: Could have sworn I pinged you like three times for reasons and updated readslists in D3. It's possible that Pawn got to it before I did.
Just checked my pings and I have none from you in D3. Which, tbh, seems wrong - I thought there was one.

15: Yes, I am in fact trying to scrape up every single even mildly scummy thing you've done and throw them in your face, just like I'm trying to do the same for Sprityo. The fact that there are many, many more of them for you than for Sprityo seems pretty indicative to me.
But you're scraping to the point of using my timezone or real-life schedule against me. That's scraping a bit low in the proverbial barrel.

Cross posting buddies.

I need to do my case on Sprit and now respond to you. I may end up falling asleep and doing neither now. We'll see.

The case against Evenstar

Her tone felt wrong:
--The vast majority of her posts from D2 were very small contributions, very much lacking in scumhunting, and mainly a stream-of-consciousness tone full of ‘…’s and ‘?’s and ‘what if’s. (And adverbs.) For example, her biggest post of D2 was a stream-of-consciousness ‘what if’ rant about the mechanics of the strange new game state and its restrictions. That itself is fine, if it goes anywhere, but her tone was mongering uncertainty, rather than being focused on actually figuring it out. She throws out thoughts about 8 scum in the thread, or no scum, etc – unlikely scenarios that don’t add to mechanics-solving.

--Along the same vein, at other points of the round she speculated on a triple scumwagon on D1 (Epi/112/Drago), entertained notions about what the phrase ‘up a level’ means, suggested forming in-game hydras…things that don’t contribute to discussion. They’re distractions.

--For someone who is known for an in-your-face style and who self-describes her style as pressuring until scum are revealed, she did remarkably little of that. Who did she pressure lately? Pawn? That lasted less than a page and she backed down quickly. In D1 she was a bulldog, but by D2 she was a puppy.

As for her actual content:
--She started D2 going after Pawn although quickly backed off that. She said Pawn ‘gave me bad info at dayend’ about Mac ‘crusading’ the Epi wagon. Pawn basically reaffirmed he believed what he said and Eva…just backed off. And she TRed Pawn the rest of the round. Then, in D3, Jack and I began discussing Pawn very lightly as a read (Jack refused to really discuss anything) and Eva comes in and rips him apart. Pawn responds and Eva…backs off. Like, very easily. Just a ‘okay, that puts my mind at ease, thanks’ sort of reaction (that’s not an actual quote – I didn’t note it down). The fangs retracted very quickly.

--Most of her posts that actually focused on pressuring potential scum in D2 were focused on Jack. And yet Jack only once appeared in her ‘bottom 3’ lists that day, and there was no real push to lynch him at any point. She also never really outright cased him, just said he ‘deserves pressure’ and picks up on a few minor inconsistencies.

--Her reads remained fairly static in D2, with only a couple exceptions. Aside from briefly SRing Pawn, and switching her read on 112 halfway through (which in turn reversed her read of Epi), the most she changed her reads was at the end when she started proposing low posters like Dom and Colin as lynch targets, after ignoring them as she had done up to that point. She kept Nova in her bottom 3, SRed me consistently (but without any real explanation beyond OMGUS), shaded Jack (but rarely openly stateed an SR of him), and avoided serious comment on most others. It really looked like she was playing to slip by unnoticed.

--As we approached the end of D2, Sprit became a last minute choice amongst several of us. Eva began to softly defend Sprit. She even said she hopes to ‘nail’ me if Sprit flipped green. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen someone say that sort of thing and flip green themselves. Also, Sprit was in the same ‘content range’ category as Nova, Dom, and Colin, who she continued to SR.

--She spent a fair chunk of time in the middle of D2 complaining about the lack of voting ability. She said it hinders her style of game (this is fair) and tells me at one point she intends to change that. She then…doesn’t. Like, even into D3, I don’t remember anything notable she did except her Pawn push.

--D3 she’s very blendy, IMO. I actually don’t remember much of what she did. Probably should’ve written some of it down.

Not to mention:
--Her vote in D1 tied Drago with 112 at 8-8 with 3 mins left. We were that close to not lynching a wolf due to her vote. (And, of course, others.)

--The Nook and Pawn (that’s still my assumption) kill choices fit her. They’re players she’s familiar with and will worry could read her correctly.

--Her entrance to this round was…interesting. She votes Sprityo immediately but gives some blah blah about me being the ‘correct lynch’ but she’s assuming she’s wrong. It's illogical. It also feels way too much like she knew *I’m* the one she needs to convince, since I’ve SRed both her and Sprit fairly heavily. She didn't start pressuring me this round until I made it clear I was leaning towards her.

--Her reasoning for me being potential scum has been full of misrememberings (I’ll avoid saying ‘lies’ since she may genuinely misremember.)

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm I'm going to assume the scum can at least pick which of their own goes to the next level.

This is an interesting thought. I've wondered the same.

What scum team chooses Sprityo to go 'all the way'? He's collectively scumread by many players. Unless his partner was, like, Colin, Sprit is not their ace in the hole. (No offence Sprit, that's not a comment on your ability so much as on your position this game.)

A scum team may choose me, but I've faced my share of heat as well. There was a point where I was the most widely scumread player. I may not have been at EoD3, but I was certainly not strongly townread. I was an 'eh, probably not' sort of read. If my teammate is any of Rabbit, Epi, or even Pawn, they're likely here instead of me. Heck, possibly even Dom.

A scum team could very well choose Eva. She was widely townread except by one vegetable. That seems like a solid choice.

It's interesting you assume this because I think if anything it points to you more than Sprit.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:35 pm Radish/Jack: Possible.
Radish's flip-flopping on Jack suggests that this could be the case, especially when combined with Jack's very strong town read on Radish for no discernible reason. Jack is a frontrunner in the voting, but is not lynched.

You have, once again, misremembered.

Jack had a scumread on me for the majority of D2/D3. I think near the end I slipped up into the 'middle' but he never had a 'very strong town read' on me. For the majority of our time with him he scumread me.

You may need to re-do your entire analysis now.

Oh, [mention]sprityo[/mention], are you able to be around at EoD then? Or do we need to settle things before then?

EoD is 11pm for me (GMT) and I can be around for the last 2-3 hours, intermittently.

Yeesh. I hate writing long posts. Taking a break.

So, in a sentence or two, what's your guys' life stories?

Geezus Eva – sorry if this is a backhanded compliment, but that may be your best post of the game. THIS is the player I’ve been expecting but not seeing. *cough*fightingforsurvival*cough*

I mean, it’s got a lot wrong with it, but points for trying anyway.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm I expect to be able to understand your reasoning for why certain people are town or scum, since we come from a similar environment and you claim to have some idea how my brain works and how to pitch me a case, but everything you've personally come up with has left me cold.

Do we come from a similar environment? I don’t know that we do. I rarely play away from my homesite and I’ve not played ‘competitive’ Mafia (as it were) in years. I just happened to watch Champs this year (to cheer on 112) and JJJ twisted my arm to join (he and I go back to Season 2).

I also don’t claim to know how your brain works. I only claim to have watched a couple games of yours, heard your rep, discussed you in spec chat, etc. Your style of playing is, I believe, actually quite different from mine.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm You called me scum D2&3 based on my late D1 vote, then said you were having doubts early in D3 and used that to justify accepting Spiny's post as a clear on me. When me and Pawn called you on it, you backtracked hastily. Today you're maintaining that your heavy scumread of me remained strong for the whole day. So what you said about having doubts on D3 was a lie, then?

Creating narratives won’t work on me, fyi. I did not use anything to ‘justify’ anything. And I certainly did not backtrack ‘hastily’. (Who was saying things about adverbs being scumtells? I like the theory, I’ve decided.) There’s been no lie about my read on you.

Let’s try again.

After townreading you D1 for a generally solid tone, your vote pinged me, and I put your name forward as an option. Iaafr, Pawn, Epi, and even Jack all shut me down. Look, say what you want about me, but I’m a team player – if my team tells me I’m wrong, I’ve learned to listen. Now, I’m not calling all of them villagers, but certainly at the time I read most of them as such, and still do to various extents. So I shrugged and backed off.

As is natural, yes, doubts crept in. And I did try to recalibrate my view of the game and create a town!Eva world. I didn’t really get anywhere, though, because I couldn’t get it out of my mind. I hoped the dream levels would re-combine or something and I would get different opinions and/or not be in a level with you. (And now here we are. Sigh.)

In D3, Rabbit brought up the Spiny post. As a general rule of thumb, I always err on the side of believing claims, even if I have doubts. So yes, I latched on to that as a means to force me to stop tunneling. And still no one else was expressing doubt about you anyway, so I did feel on an island. And I simply don’t have the time or energy in this game to make everyone swim to my island. (Not sure that metaphor made sense…) So I let it be and continued to focus on looking for scum through other methods.

I’ll continue this train of thought in a future post. Let’s continue responding to your points.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm You scumread Jack early in D3, putting him in your bottom 3 IIRC. He remained there for some time, and then I made my post about how the current PoE felt bad and I thought Jack, Colin, Dom, Sprityo were all bad cases and that Jack in particular was ML bait because he has no defenders at all. You seemed vaguely convinced by this and moved off your scumread, but returned to it later in the day for reasons that aren't really clear to me, and AFAIK that was where you left off. Now you're saying that you reversed your position again and hard-townread Jack? I don't understand the reasoning behind your flip-flops here.

You have misremembered and/or misinterpreted.

First of all, where do you get the idea any post you made changed my mind on anything? You were not the first to suggest the low-posting PoE felt bad; in fact, I was on that as early as D2. I had a brief discussion with Pawn about it. (He basically shrugged at it and said it was the best PoE for now.)

My read on Jack has bounced like a yo-yo, that’s true, but it’s been doing that all game because he posted so much whilst saying so little and refused to engage in conversations or really explain his reads in more than a brief sentence. I can’t read that style well, so my read has bounced around. As explained in an above post directed at Sprityo, I did a list near the end of D3 and found decent reasons to TR Jack, whereas my SR had always been for fairly lazy ‘he’s not doing much’ reasons.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm Throughout the entire day you were "townreading" Pawn with a deeply uncertain tone. I don't recall if you actually flipped on him when I pushed him, but I definitely don't recall you defending him... and checking my spreadsheet here, it looks like one of your final 3 options was Pawn.

Explained above to Sprit. Pawn’s posts showed a similar thought process to mine, so that made me a bit concerned but overall made me TR him. I wasn’t around when you pushed him, and concluded it hadn’t changed my opinion. He ended up in my final 3 by PoE as I didn’t find a better reason to TR him than I did for a couple others who had been hovering down my list, e.g. Jack.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm Epi, on the other hand, you entered the day scumreading... and then slowly slid into a townread based IIRC on his push of Rabbit, which to my eyes was excessive and unfair. You did this while townreading Rabbit, and made no attempt to break up the conflict between two of your townreads. It feels extremely convenient to me that you slid into townreading Epi in this fashion.

False. Epi was a town read all of D3. It was strengthened by the Rabbit thing, that's true. But it was D2 I started the day uncertain on Epi, and had changed by the end of the phase.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm I think you did make a brief post about Pawn "slanking" or "coasting" at one point, but I certainly don't recall any major contributions from you at EoD. (Unless it was you who was tinfoiling a Pawn/me scumteam? I'm fairly sure that was earlier in the day anyway.)

It was me, but you’re right it was earlier.

There were no major contributions at EoD because I wasn’t here.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm You slid towards "Jack is town" following me; you slid towards "Pawn is scum" following Epi. You claim to have only townread Pawn in the first place based on the fact that Rabbit thought he was town. You backed off your position that I was scum very quickly when Spiny's post came up, and then backed right back onto it just as quickly when I called you out on it.

All of these are false. You're either trying to create a narrative about me being a follower, or you misremember my posts/the timing of them.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm You try not to get involved in conflicts in the thread, and are particularly likely to ambiguously-townread strong players like Epi and Pawn. It seems important to you that perceptive people like Epi not have reason to look at you too close: while I'm also known as a strong player, it's a lot easier to brush off suspicion from me than from someone like Epignosis, which makes your persistent scumread of me slot quite neatly into a world where I'm being framed.

That's another nice narrative, but also not true. I would agree I’m not a ‘confrontational’ player, but at the same time all the ‘conflicts’ have happened when I haven’t been in the thread. So I haven't exactly been able to get involved.

You could categorise my TRs of Epi and Pawn as ambiguous, sure. Or perhaps 'uncertain'? Weren’t you just defending my accusations of your ‘uncertainty’ by pointing out that’s a towntell? My reads of Epi and Pawn have fluctuated between varying levels of certainty, and I see nothing wrong with that.

(Also, for the record, I’d rather Epi come after me than you. You’re scary when you want to be.)

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm As for your analysis content, I recall one solid analysis post at the beginning of D2 regarding the votals, and thereafter your reads have felt confused, vague and underspecified.

This is…fair. Or, rather, I feel that’s not the case, but enough people have said something like this to me so far that I can accept I’m not making myself as clear as I need to be. It’s a bit unfair to attack my lack of analysis, though, considering there’s very little to analyse without past threads, and I could easily say the same about you.

Also, I love ‘votals’. Haven’t seen that one before.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm I've had to prod you for reasoning multiple times,

You have done no such thing. You’ve engaged me about twice in this game. I was paying attention because I was waiting for a post such as this and never got it.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:01 pm but they score points for getting louder in lylo while you seem to be becoming quieter.

Completely unfair. My timezone is different from yours and I’ve explained that today was particularly busy for me. I have about 3 hours max per day on for this game, and a lot of that has been spent simply reading up. As for this round, it started at 11pm for me, and so I’ve had all of one hour this morning so far.

---

My concern with your reasoning here is that so much seems predicated on things that are twisted, misrepresented, or in some cases simply untrue. Suggesting my reads have felt ‘confused, vague, and underspecified’ is the best thing about it, as you’re not the only player so far to feel that way, so clearly I’ve not done a good enough job projecting my thoughts. But essentially everything else feels more like you’re scraping the barrel for reasons to cast doubt on me in any way you can.

Right, I know I have a big post from Evenstar to respond to, but I must step away for a bit.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:39 pm
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:21 pm
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:28 am Radishes, uncertainty means I don't have TMI. Go look at the ridiculous confidence with which I pushed the X Cult thing, for a start.

The vote is a bad look, I agree. I wouldn't read into the kills like that though, because I know Lexi, Mac and you all have enough meta on me to frame me. Also, do you really think I would let both Lexi and Pawn persist in the same game with me for more than one daycycle? That's seriously bad juju, man.
Eh. You had confidence in the Finale and were town. You had confidence of D1 in this game. The uncertainty I could forgive on D2 for awhile because, you know, it took us by surprise, but aside from a brief attack on Pawn you’ve come across as very passive, and that is not a look I’m used to seeing on you (with admittedly a low amount of meta). I think ‘passive’ is better than ‘uncertain’ here as a term, though.
Oh, in that case read me in Mountainous Bulletproof on MU. (As Lady Eventide; technically a hydra with my my girlfriend but that's mostly so I can talk to her about the game without breaking OGI rules.) What you're seeing here is what I look like when I'm slanking.

Well, I can't criticise that. I'm a bit slanky myself; my time is limited to a 1 hour window each morning and 2-ish hour window (with interruptions) each evening, and my wife is starting to get annoyed I'm not spending more time with her in the evenings.

Do you have a link to that game?

Regarding the lynch, I maintain that I think townies probably play it ‘safe’ when voting if there’s only a small gap between the suitability of their options (i.e. there's no clearcut scum to vote for), and so and go with who amongst their three the town wants gone more so than their personal hardest SR. We can't state our votes and adjust based on how wagons grow and what people do and all that - we have to 'guess' what play the town wants to go for. Thus, I expect Colin is the ‘safe’ choice, as someone who pretty much everyone had in their PoE or was outright SRing, whereas the Pawn ‘wagon’ was never very certain in-thread.

Regarding the MK, this is how I see it:
-No one chooses to MK Colin. He’s too perfect to take to LYLO if possible. (Scum may not have control over who goes to F3, but even then the Colin kill makes zero sense beyond 'to cause confusion'.)
-Someone *might* choose to MK Pawn, as he is clearly a strongly analytical player who could defend himself and see through a scum’s lies in this situation.

I’m honestly fairly convinced Colin was lynch and Pawn was MK. I just don’t think it makes any sense in reverse.

Oh, and I forgot Eva. Soz. But I think that one's understood by now?

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:02 am
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:32 am My reads did change:
(i) Jack went from mild SR to mild TR to strong SR (bottom 3) to strong TR
(ii) Colin went from TR to a bottom 3 SR
(iii) Epi went from SR to TR
(iv) Sprityo went from SR to uncertain TR
So do you remember the reasons for these changes? or at least when they happened?

Jack – on D1 I didn’t like his lack of contribution, but he engaged with Eva/Nutella in a way I felt was townie, hence my strong TR (which no one at the time liked; I got a lot of flack for it). His D1 vote was one I pegged as a potential scum vote if there was a campaign to save Drago. Throughout D2 I felt Jack did little again, and by PoE he slipped down to my mushy middle 3. Yesterday I felt his contributions improved and he actually was playing the game. He was also completely different from everyone on reads and style, which makes me think town more than scum; he wasn’t trying to be blendy, but ended up being so. I think I had another reason to like him but I forget now. I ended with him as an upper mid-3.

Colin – barely remember Rej in that slot, but when Colin entered D2 I felt there was some attempt to delve in to the game without worrying about how he appeared. I acknowledged him as a PoE candidate, but kept him at that until D3 due to lack of content. When I began to seriously ISO people realised I had zero reason to read him as...anything. I saw no townie posts, no scum posts. Just blah posts. So by end of D3 he slipped to my bottom 3. What I had read as townie nonchalance I now was reading as scum blend-alance.

Epi – I put him in a ‘potential scum vote on D1’ slot. I also accused him of trying to bury the thread with all his analysis, much of which I felt was a bit useless. He took issue with all this and reasoned with me at beginning of D2. I liked our interaction and kept him in the Mid-3 for awhile (not higher since I knew he had a rep). His attack on Rabbit felt to me like a dog who felt he had a bone in a townie way, and he seemed a bit put out when the doublevoter thing put his idea to rest. He had pushed hard and without regard for how he came across. He also put in more effort than most others in our various levels, which is not a towntell per se but buys him some goodwill considering how I've felt the D2/D3 threads were rather lacking it despite the postcount being reasonable. I think scum ride out that thread uncertainty rather than raise the effort level.

Sprityo – there was a D1 post I felt was bad, and many others agreed at the time, but there wasn’t enough to build more of a case there. In D2 I again felt his posts lacked substance, and by PoE he floated around my bottom 3. By D3 I began to re-evaluate, as in ISOing him I felt there was nothing particularly scummy to find, and in turn the (now much discussed) ‘points of logic’ pointed in his favour. He remained in my PoE, but was climbing out of it.

Additions:

Dom - went from null (lack of content) to slight TR (for not giving af how he looked as he finally entered the thread) to slightly firmer TR (for having some decent points hidden amongst his dickish-- I mean aggression.)

Iaafr - strong TR throughout based on style and substance. I get how his style rubs people the wrong way, but I was used to it from MU spec chat and so saw through it fairly easily. Purest one of all, IMO.

And with further detail, since I see him being discussed later in this thread:

Pawn – He and I were on the same page so much I did worry about a deepwolf and said as much, but otherwise felt he was very townie. When Eva attacked him I felt his responses were cogent, and did not shift my opinion much there when all was said and done. But at the end of D3 I listed my best reason for townreading everyone, and I realised I didn’t really have a better reason to TR him than ‘I like what he says’ (I don’t remember exactly what I worded it as). After considering others, e.g. Dom, Epi, Jack, etc, he ended up in my bottom 3 a bit by default, as I had better reasons to TR others, but was not necessarily SRing him, if that makes sense. I admit also to a touch of paranoia (I called him a deepwolf way before anyone else started to SR him!). But I can’t specify anything more with regards to that, I think.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:28 am Radishes, uncertainty means I don't have TMI. Go look at the ridiculous confidence with which I pushed the X Cult thing, for a start.

The vote is a bad look, I agree. I wouldn't read into the kills like that though, because I know Lexi, Mac and you all have enough meta on me to frame me. Also, do you really think I would let both Lexi and Pawn persist in the same game with me for more than one daycycle? That's seriously bad juju, man.

Eh. You had confidence in the Finale and were town. You had confidence of D1 in this game. The uncertainty I could forgive on D2 for awhile because, you know, it took us by surprise, but aside from a brief attack on Pawn you’ve come across as very passive, and that is not a look I’m used to seeing on you (with admittedly a low amount of meta). I think ‘passive’ is better than ‘uncertain’ here as a term, though.

As for who you’d kill and what you’d do, that’s WIFOM. But to entertain the discussion for a moment: LLD is clearly a non-factor this game, and Pawn was deep in your pocket until yesterday. The other known kill was Nook, who you know from the Finale, so 'fits' who you might choose, as I do believe you're the type of mafia who kills players they think could be dangerous for them personally.

And one of the reasons I think Pawn is the likely MK is because he’s exactly who you wouldn’t want here right now if you were scum. Whereas scum!Sprit keeps him because he’s mislynch bait and there’s no meta, and scum!Sprit MKs Epi or Dom or someone who knows him better and may be able to find him.

I never kill Pawn (or colin) for the same reason, since no one knows my meta so I’m mainly concerned about having viable bait if I’m scum. I consider killing Rabbit or Epi, I'd hazard.

But this is all WIFOM more than anything, and truthfully isn’t a strong piece of evidence for me, so feel free to ignore this thread of discussion. It just…fits, is all.

Feel free to @ me with anything, but I'll be reading everything anyway, so...

Right, signing off for about 12ish hours. As I say, really busy day for me today.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:08 am
Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 3:00 am Yeah, that wasn't analysis. It was good logic, but not analysis.

Sprit's posts this round have been more analyse-y, though.
Eh, I see your point. Feels like hairsplitting because attention to that sort of thing is still a towntell, but sure, fine.

Oh, sure, I agree with that. I'm a History teacher, so 'analysis' is a word I'm used to over-using and seeing over-used is all.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:55 am Mafia Point - I'm getting Jack syndrome with MR, the only difference is MR doesnt goof around. But my issue is I don't remember specifics about MR. Blendy maybe is the word?

Sure, I think this is fair. I'm used to being a town leader on my home site, but there are louder voices here and my real life time is too limited to let me keep up with them. I also believe in teamplay, so I've been willing to sit back and let Rabbit/Eva/others take the lead. E.g. Rabbit, my strongest TR, insisted Eva was also Town, and no one else really backed the idea anyway, thus I backed off that.

Yeah, that wasn't analysis. It was good logic, but not analysis.

Sprit's posts this round have been more analyse-y, though.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:27 am Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine

Kind of did this above ^ but will do it again in brief.

Town!Eva = Spinyboo's Mason as per *that* post
Scum!Eva = overall passive and uncertain play

Town!Sprit = insightful posts that show townie thought process
Scum!Sprit = macro-level play is uninspiring; has been laying low

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:22 am
sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:17 am also @Evenstar if your graph is correct, then it's still the same question, of why did mafia want pawn dead, and we can assume that his failed lynch was why he was killed.
It seems pretty clear the mafia wanted to break up the towncore of me/pawn/rabbit and therefore pushed/killed the weak link. What's your hypothesis?

If I'm scum and there's a towncore I want to break up, I don't MK the weakest link, I MK the strongest.

Re: who the kill was, in what world do scum kill Colin? He's such ML bait. And I suspect townies voting privately second-guess themselves and vote 'safe', making colin the more likely choice. Also, the scum, who are likely few in number, likely aren't bold enough to vote Pawn considering suspicion had cooled.

Don't get me wrong, the Pawn kill doesn't make much sense either. But the Colin kill makes less. Ergo Colin = lynch, Pawn = MK

Aaaaand a bunch more posts.

It's 6:30am here and I need to leave for work soon. It's a full day of teaching for me, no real breaks start to finish, so I'm going to have to keep it to cliffs notes versions for now. We have a day and a half still.

Evenstar - everything I'm seeing looks the opposite of the town!Eva I've seen. I've never played with her, and it's different to watch from spec chat, but she looks...uncertain. Also, the Nook and potentially Pawn kills fit her meta perfectly. And lest we forget her D1 vote at 3 mins remaining nearly prevented Drago being lynched. The big point against this theory is if Spiny spewed her Mason, but without access to the main thread I can't check.

Sprityo - has been laying low and is now suddenly here and active, which is nagl for anyone. D1-D3 posting left me uninspired. Emotional outbursts can be faked. The big point against this case is that he's also shown a propensity to be much more insightful than his low-posting would indicate, such as countering theories with logical points others had missed, and how this round his biggest post ^^ showed me he's been paying much more attention than I realised.

I won't 'hide' the fact that I am still leaning towards Evenstar as scum. But I suppose in F3 due diligence is needed, so I'll duly and diligently try to see the opposite world.

Let's start with me.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:38 am @sprityo
Frankly, it really goes against my instincts to be voting you right now. Radishes is inconsistent and wobbly, pushed me for stupid reasons, and accepted that the spiny post cleared me way too easily. I think, in my heart of hearts, even as I am voting you, that he's the scum here. I'm stomping on it 'cause I'm at lylo and therefore I am wrong.

sprityo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:49 pm So between the option of Radishes who I haven’t tried to scrutinize. The man who was drawing a lot of different view points from everyone yesterday (and I think day 2 as well?). Points of interest I remember about Radishes was his and Pawn’s “You’re copying me” type deal with reads

By all means I would be the one lynched here since Evenstar and Radihes have the same reads. But if mafia is picking who goes where...then that would be what they want and too easy. I’m going to apply Occam’s Razor and go with that’s the case.

Radishes seemed to have pretty consistent reads from what I can remember as well. As in they didn’t change if at all. Evenstar is going to be a bag of cats to dissect

So the two real points against me appear to be my 'wobbly and inconsistent' play (what does that even mean?) and my 'pretty consistent reads' (which isn't true).

My play has been the same since the beginning; any wobbliness comes from three things:
(a) adapting my gameplay to the non-voting/non-rereading mechanics
(b) unfamiliarity with me/my meta
(c) the fact I never truly let go of my scum!Evenstar read and was trying to work around it

My reads did change:
(i) Jack went from mild SR to mild TR to strong SR (bottom 3) to strong TR
(ii) Colin went from TR to a bottom 3 SR
(iii) Epi went from SR to TR
(iv) Sprityo went from SR to uncertain TR
...etc. Rabbit was a strong TR throughout, but beyond that everything was in flux to some extent.

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