The Syndicate

Ah damn, I was worried about that. I was getting to Seanzie in my head, but Falcon did enough this round to make me hesitate and I couldn't find a reason for it not to be SVS.

GG wolves.

EoD is 5am or some ungodly hour like that for me, so I will be signing off soon.

I really think it has to be SVS. I'm not sure on the partner but one step at a time.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:57 am

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:53 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:50 am Level 1 reads say it's either MR/Sean, or SVS/Epi teams

Epi went after SVS pretty hard in D1. It felt unpaired to me.

Your point on his choice of target is a good one. Maybe I'll look again at how his suss on her developed.

I've not independently iso'd SVS yet (I'm wasting time from life admin stuff right now) so will get back to you on her.

I'll take a look as well...perhaps I'm misremembering, but I feel Epi somewhat piggybacked off others sus of SVS slot.





That's partner distancing 101 IMO. Imma take a look

@falcon45ca did you look at this yet?

You're partially right in the sense that Epi was 3rd onto SVS (you first, then Linear). If I'm uncharitable, his case was nitpicky, though I guess D1 cases often are.

But also he rode his sus on SVS for the rest of D1 and into D2. There were available exits (Guillo, cat) and Epi is certainly not afraid to create his own new case himself.

And most of all, with just 6 minutes left in D1 he re-voted SVS, putting her at 4 votes and therefore making SVS set to be eliminated. Linear's mech meant that Cat was elimmed instead, as we now know, but Epi basically doomed SVS with that last minute vote. I guess you could argue Epi somehow saw Linear's hint and understood it, or that he and SVS agreed he'd bus her out and ride the cred to the end, or something. But the simple answer is that Epi was responsible for SVS near-elimination in D1, and that just feels very unlikely to be partnered.

If Epi is scum, it's not with SVS, imo.

Assuming SVS goes over and flips scum, I'm...not all that convinced it's Falcon anymore. My instinct about the way she talks to/around him in D1 feels like she's fending off a town who has sniffed her out.

Maybe it's SVS/Seanzie?

Have now skimmed through SVS' iso. It just has to be her. If it's not, I am helping us lose this game and so be it.

I think Epi put it best when calling it almost entirely self-defense. I'd also add that she is hyperfocused on just one or two things, she doesn't really seem to solve anyone or anything, and there are some conventional wolfy things like appeasing her detractors, point-by-point refuting a case, refusing to vote the main counterwagon, the classic 'maybe it's just best you guys yeet me!', etc etc. I can do a big ol' case that nitpicks this that and the other thing, if anyone wants me to.

Coming off a recent town game where she MVP'd us to victory, this is a stark contrast. I'm sure a large part of her absence is NAI, but it's also just the content within her posts. There is just no meat to it in D1, and it's basically non-existent in D2/D3.

I actually have days off so I'll do more tomorrow.

I'm anchoring any team on SVS right now, but am not sure on who with.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:40 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:19 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:04 am This means S~V~S could be mafia but did not kill LinearPoint. Therefore I won't be voting S~V~S today.

I don't quite get how the first sentence leads to the second. SVS' odds of being mafia haven't changed. It just means she would be smart enough not to carry a kill when her biggest detractor is a jailkeeper.

I lied about the Night 1 element of my role. Nobody knew that. When S~V~S was tied to my Guillotine suspicion, and Guillotine perished with no stain, I picked S~V~S thinking she might be bold enough to make a kill.

In any event, it didn't block a kill, and we play this out vanilla style.

As we've established this game, people lie about their claimed role mechanics. SVS/whoever could easily have hedged their bets and had 'whoever' make the kill instead.

I just don't think your JK failing moves the needle on SVS' alignment one way or the other.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:50 am Level 1 reads say it's either MR/Sean, or SVS/Epi teams

Epi went after SVS pretty hard in D1. It felt unpaired to me.

Your point on his choice of target is a good one. Maybe I'll look again at how his suss on her developed.

I've not independently iso'd SVS yet (I'm wasting time from life admin stuff right now) so will get back to you on her.

[VOTE: SVS] aubergine

For you, falcon.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:36 am Wait, yer voting me?





MR says he & I are designated game-losing lylo chop...after he's received a vote, then he votes for me w/o having expressed any SR that I've seen...hmmmmmm

You fit with everyone as a partner. Then I read your iso and didn't find the obvious scum agenda and now I don't know what to think.

I want to vote SVS more right now, but haven't done my homework on her yet.

*be, not bet


SVS, that's the 'scared' emoji, not the 'sad' one!

I've left reading SVS till last and ran out of time.

If anyone suggests she's possibly not bad I'll bet sad

@falcon45ca If you're town, you and I are the designated game-losing lylo chop options. Come do towny things!

I don't know what to do with Falcon. His D1 iso is fine, nothing I'd call clearing but nothing I find wrong with it. His D2 iso is empty.

Nothing I read gives me feelings of any sort. He has three real suspects, SVS + Guillo + Cat, and they feel organic enough. He starts on SVS, later switches to Guillo and pushes that one harder, then towards the end of D1 noticed Cat doing nothing much and starts the wagon there. His progression through it all feels fine to me; I can sense his mindset as his reads evolve. Equally, it's all fairly consensus-y, and when it's not (pretty sure he was the first to vote Cat) it was just the lowest poster and it's not like he could stay on a cop-claiming Guillo anyway. Then D2 he drops off completely, which I'll treat as NAI I guess.

I kind of expected to read his iso and feel fine with him as a scum possibility, but I guess nothing in life comes easy.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:15 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:03 am I, like the departed fart storyteller, lied about my role.

I put S~V~S in the hoosegow last night. Obviously that accomplished nothing.

I am disappoint; I thought "Jailkeeper" also had a BTS aspect to it. Although that negates it's role block aspect so it would not make sense.

I'm going to reread Radishes today. He seems sad every time someone says I am possibly not bad, without making any major pushes to me himself.

You're not special - I've made no major pushes on anyone.

The slot I am spending the most time tossing around in my head now is Seanzie. That Wilgy shot was...something. I know he had reasoning for it, but it's still a choice I don't think many town vigs make, whereas Seanzie, imo, is bold enough to just openwolf and shoot an active civilian and cross his fingers we clear him for it.

It feels *unlikely* that in 10p setup the mafia get a Vig, but weirder things have happened I suppose.

I don't like settling on an exact team (SVS/Falcon). If one of those is actually town, I think Seanzie is the wolf over Epi.

I'm going to settle on Epi being town, at least for this round. I can nitpick certain things if I wanted to, but I don't feel it.

-His general vibe feels like he is trying to solve. He has a bit of bite to him, like when he latches on to SVS and then Guillo, mixed with his typical sense of humour - he doesn't seem like he's concentrating on his own appearance, just doing what comes naturally in the moment.

-He sounds like he really believes his Guillo read in particular. He can't resist responding to Guillo, repeating certain points, etc. No big fancy cases, just conviction.

-The way he claimed (claiming he forgot to target someone) feels just so...unnecessary if he's a wolf. What's the agenda to it? And coming into today and using his claim to back off SVS, who it would be really easy to get miskilled, is another point in his favour.

-Probably other things but I don't want to spend more time on this.


Epi is either exactly powerwolfing the fuck out of us, which is not impossible, or he's just town. For now, I'm going to stick with that philosopher dude's razor.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:04 am This means S~V~S could be mafia but did not kill LinearPoint. Therefore I won't be voting S~V~S today.

I don't quite get how the first sentence leads to the second. SVS' odds of being mafia haven't changed. It just means she would be smart enough not to carry a kill when her biggest detractor is a jailkeeper.

[VOTE: Falcon] aubergine

For now.

I hate when games get hard.

Anyway I'm going to bed soon. Let's just kill Guillo and if he flips town we'll have a fun little lylo sitch.

I just find it amusing that the two people suggesting the night kill was to frame them are the two people who needed no framing.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 4:09 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sun Aug 27, 2023 3:30 pm How often do scum teams actually choose kills based on framing someone?

More than they directly kill the people sussing them imo, at least early in the game. When I’m bad, on might one I usually kill people unlikely to be protected or people who fairly strongly sussed someone who isn’t a wolf. Having the civvies come out of the gate start of day chomping at the bit to yeet some townie you set up, and not you, is the best when you’re a wolf. You sit back and let town slaughter each other.

If someone won’t shut up you kill them later in the game, but not night one.

But it’s all wifom, really.

Do you think I killed Michelle?

I mean I would've killed Michelle too. She was engaged and thinking critically and was clearly a danger to any scum team.

No one said 'aha let's kill Michelle to frame someone already in the PoE.'

And if the answer to the above is 'sometimes', how often do they do it to frame people already on the PoE, like Guillo and SVS?

How often do scum teams actually choose kills based on framing someone?

Anyway, I'm happy for Guillo to be the chop today. I'm going to contentedly sit here not voting him so that if he flips red you can all debate if I'm his partner tomorrow.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:39 am Game ends in 14 hours, if in 4 hours momentum has not changed, i will have no choice but to claim.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:27 am Plus i know for a fact im not gonna be eliminated so, you may as well just vote your other scum read.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 3:50 pm Harclaim Parity Cop

This just feels really awkward. 14h to go and he basically claims but without claiming, 13h to go and he again screams HINT HINT, and 8h to go and he finally hardclaims after Michelle and I push him to. He was around at EoD, when a claim normally occurs.

Guillo is a player who in many ways approaches Mafia differently than I do, but I just feel this is not how a town handles this? Like the whole mindset of 'I'm not going to be eliminated' usually makes a townie feel quietly confident, but Guillo doesn't come across as quietly confident in his security. The timing is very early for someone who was going to be around at EoD, when normally people wait a bit to see if they can avoid claiming (since a town PR doesn't want to if possible).

On a side note, I can't remember when exactly Heists changed requirements,and my 30 seconds of looking for an announcement proved futile, but I feel like it was a year or more ago? Not that it matters. I just also sat here earlier this round about to make a post about the three claimed roles and then remembering it was no longer three maximum.

My thoughts on the claims:

Guillo's has always been the most suspect to me. Parity cop is such an easy safe claim for a wolf to make, since we can't prove nor disprove it very easily. And the way he went about it just rubbed me the wrong way. I should probably go dig for quotes to show what I mean, but it came across like he was trying to pretend to hint but was actually screaming to make sure we saw the hints. And now with info on other roles I agree it maybe fits least well in the setup, although I'm hesitant to make that sort of read.

Seanzie's claim is believable, but damn, the choice of vig shot could definitely be a bold wolf. I can understand finding reasons not to shoot the counterwagons, but why not a low poster like me instead then? Shooting an active, contributing player for 'paranoia' is a bit bleh. That sort of thing could be an excuse to get rid of a loud voice and find refuge in audacity. But it does feel strange to give the mafia an extra KP in a small setup like this, and Seanzie sounds believable, so this is mostly me thinking out loud in case of the game getting hard later.

Epi's role is commonly a scum one, but his entire manner of claiming, even just the choice to, feels lacking in scum agenda.

I don't really question LinearPoint's claim. There's evidence it's true. I don't think the scum team in a small game like this would get such a role as it takes away from town's limited options to find scum.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:30 pm This game is boring.

We are losing because you ate letting it die.

I'm not finding it boring.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 12:54 pm @Master Radishes did you freeze?

Yes. You caught me. Well done.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 12:46 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 11:40 pm PoE

SvS
Cat
Wilgy
LP

If chopping through does not win the game we are fucked

Looks like we might be fucked then!

I mean no one is saying you made a bad choice, LP. Cat was a justifiable yeet.

Also people go against the will of the majority all the time. If we do have a town vig that person also went against the will of the majority, as neither Michelle nor Wilgy were consensus suspects .

Guillotine wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 12:29 pm If linearpoint is a double voter and went against the concensus, they must be eliminated. They went against the will of the majority

They've not claimed double voter. There's no point speculating.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 11:01 am *waiting for everyone to realize there is no way we have a pairity cop, a vig, and someone who controls the D1 elim in a 10er*

Yeah. I've been mulling over that. There can be up to five roles in a Heist so maybe the mafia have a roleblocker or something. Still feels potentially quite swingy if all those roles exist for town.

If I'm going to doubt any of them it's the parity cop. But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility one exists.

In the mean time, I'm waiting for a town vig to claim their hero shot.

Going back to this for a moment,

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:01 am Cat: LinearPoint, S~V~S, falconca45
Guilltione: Cat, DrWilgy, Seanzie
S~V~S: Michelle, Master Radishes, Guillotine, Epignosis

I cannot for the life of me find a valid partner for S~V~S, so I don't think they are a wolf.

Falcon and Guillotine were both active EoD and neither made any effort to try and get the vote to go away from S~V~S. Falcon could easily just not unvoted Guillotine and Guillotine could have easily voted Cat instead.
Seanzie also made no effort to switch off Guillotine when it was becoming clear S~V~S was going to be the next target to be up for execution.
Epignosis actively wanted to keep their vote on S~V~S over Guillotine.
Only MR comes up as a potential candidate who just could not make EoD to unvote their partner, but I don't see that as a very likely world.

I like your line of reasoning, but I'm not sure we can discount SVS too quickly. In a 2p scum team they're both going to be really concious of not being associated, and I could see that affecting how a scum partner plays around w!SVS in this sort of EoD scenario. E.g. Seanzie not having the threadpull to change things, or Falcon starting the Cat wagon to try a new tact of saving SVS, or MR panic bussing then falling asleep. I'd need to go back and re-read, though.

I agree that Epi is not paired with SVS, and Guillo is not the type of wolf partner to bus when there is a clear counterwagon (Cat) available. So options are limited, at least.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:07 am Granted I was expecting to die in the night since I see no real world where Mafia can successfully argue that a Mafia was given the ability to dictate the D1 execution.

But I am thinking they missed the telegraphed kill and shot in the dark.

In retrospect I see you hinting at it now, but it didn't feel obvious to me when skimming EoD myself. I could see other players not picking up on it as well.

I agree it is a likely town power here.

Oh I see. Gotcha.

Vigging either Michelle or Wilgy is...certainly a choice.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:01 am Cat: LinearPoint, S~V~S, falconca45
Guilltione: Cat, DrWilgy, Seanzie
S~V~S: Michelle, Master Radishes, Guillotine, Epignosis

I cannot for the life of me find a valid partner for S~V~S, so I don't think they are a wolf.

Falcon and Guillotine were both active EoD and neither made any effort to try and get the vote to go away from S~V~S. Falcon could easily just not unvoted Guillotine and Guillotine could have easily voted Cat instead.
Seanzie also made no effort to switch off Guillotine when it was becoming clear S~V~S was going to be the next target to be up for execution.
Epignosis actively wanted to keep their vote on S~V~S over Guillotine.
Only MR comes up as a potential candidate who just could not make EoD to unvote their partner, but I don't see that as a very likely world.

The only world I can see where Guillotine is a wolf here is if exactly Epignosis is their partner doing some theater EoD vote switching between Guillotine and S~V~S. Or if MR is just silently supporting Guillotine from the sidelines.
Everyone else had pretty ample opportunity to not allow Guillotine to even potentially be put up for a tied vote which they very nearly were put to 4.

I don't think a wolf was being voted at the end of day 1.

I like your analysis up to this point. I'm not fully convinced on discounting Guillotine, as anyone who claims is probably not dying if townies are playing responsibly, but nonetheless I think there are multiple worlds in which it was a v/v/v scenario.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:01 am I also think this means that the two wolves did not vote on the same wagon because they did not really need to.
Epignosis looks good for not choosing to put the Cop claim to 4 (unless like I said they are partners with Guillotine).
So 2 wolves in falcon, MR, and Seanzie.

Which I think MR is a wolf here with the N1 deaths. Even though it's not clear which was shot by Mafia and which was shot by a Vig, I think MR shooting either of them as a wolf makes sense with MR town lean reading both in #357. On that same coin Seanzie was questioning both Wilgy and Michelle for joining in their RVS of Guillotine so I don't really see why wolf!Seanzie would want either of them dead. Falcon has given off town vibes for a long while, I do not think they can only be wolf if I am right and Guillotine and S~V~S are both Town but Falcon not dying last night to Mafia is not what I expected with them being pretty universally town read; it should have been a nobrainer shot to just kill falcon and hope you killed the Power Role between me, Falcon, and S~V~S.

You're beginning to make assumptions here, though. Your reason for discounting Epi is poor (w!Epi is smart enough not to vote out the cop claim). Your reason for discounting Falcon is poor ('he didn't die' is risky to apply on D2). Your reason for discounting Seanzie is lazy (w!Seanzie would have plenty of reasons for wanting either Michelle or Wilgy, two engaged and active town, dead).

Absolutely, I'd kill either Michelle or Wilgy if I were scum. They're good players who I'd be afraid of, especially Michelle. But so would a number of other players, for the same reason. It just feels a bit lazy to land on the low-poster as the most likely scum.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 3:31 am 1) It's painfully obvious how Cat died.

I wasn't very present for D1 and was sleep deprived when I was, so I don't know what happened either. Feel free to explain, if it's painfully obvious enough that everyone else knows.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Sat Aug 26, 2023 2:23 am and how is there two deaths in a 10 player set up?

Isn't that to be expected when there's an even number of players?

The book I've been reading lately suggested that Minoan women may have ruled their society. Early (male) archaeologists dismissed the idea despite there being some evidence that the assembly spaces uncovered had associations with goddesses and a ceremony about menstruation. (I may be misrepresenting this, as I'm not double checking my book, only going off memory of what it said when I read this section a few days ago.)

I need to sleep soon. I'll follow Michelle if she goes a different direction, at least for this round.

Oh and SVS pops in. Awkward.

[VOTE: SVS] aubergine

This is fine I guess. I have no strong opinion but others seem to.

^That's the thing I forgot to say: on principle I don't like voting PR claims, even if I find Guillo's progression towards his claim a bit iffy, and with that in mind I'm not sure where I'd plop a vote. I might just rent my vote out to Michelle or Wilgy or someone with an active presence who I have no particular reason to be suspicious of.

Guillo are you going to claim a specific PR?

tl;dr

I guess I'll vote Guillo? But because I'm skimming and my head isn't in the game yet (aforementioned travelling and related circumstances) I've naturally focused on the players/issues that have taken up the most thread oxygen, and will be naturally inclined to focus my own attention there. No one is allowed to take anything I say at this point more than 30% seriously.