The Syndicate

ayy

cat wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:22 pm I skimmed thread again today a second time.
Other than Jiwon, biggest suspects to me right now are Wilgy and Alison, Alison for D2 and Wilgy for D1. I'm busy with IRL right now so i will reread before i place my vote.

Why did you vote Nata over Falcon?

cat wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:18 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:44 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:42 am Alison might mmbe scum tho.

I spent the whole of D1 pushing someone who wasn't the 8ball when I had a perfect excuse to push the 8ball. I pushed you because I thought you were scum on Jiwon's wagon, when I could just have easily have used that reasoning to push Nata (who was the 8ball). Michelle cast the deciding vote between Nata and you, which means that the vote was super close. If Michelle had not chosen Nata then we would've exed someone who wasn't the 8ball. If I was scum I could have easily voted Nata or even unvoted near EOD to make the Nata exe go over, but I made it as close as possible. Why would I do any of that if I was scum?

Why are you using something we have no control over as a defense? If you are townie you don't know who the 8ball is.

Yes, and if I was scum I would. And I would be pushing the 8ball so I could get a nightkill.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:47 am To mess with my mind!

Nah, I don't play like that as mafia. When I am mafia I am thirsty for townie blood. See Simpsons and Mysterious Universe where I played to maximize the number of townies I killed. If I am mafia here I am 100% pushing the 8ball and making sure there is no doubt. I don't sit on the counterwagon and let a townie make the call who to exe; that's simply not my style as a wolf. I am way too much of a control freak for that.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:42 am Alison might mmbe scum tho.

I spent the whole of D1 pushing someone who wasn't the 8ball when I had a perfect excuse to push the 8ball. I pushed you because I thought you were scum on Jiwon's wagon, when I could just have easily have used that reasoning to push Nata (who was the 8ball). Michelle cast the deciding vote between Nata and you, which means that the vote was super close. If Michelle had not chosen Nata then we would've exed someone who wasn't the 8ball. If I was scum I could have easily voted Nata or even unvoted near EOD to make the Nata exe go over, but I made it as close as possible. Why would I do any of that if I was scum?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:35 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:38 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:34 pm Michelle is probably town, but I don't care. I ain't got time for her malarkey

Falcon - you say here that you think Michelle is town, but vote for her anyway. Just because you're annoyed by her "malarkey"? Why?

I was frustrated with things, not just in game. Michelle's tunnel of me just didn't feel like Maf, and I voted for her partially in jest, hence the term malarkey

ok

If cat flips scum we have more space to identify the mafia in Jiwon/Falcon. If cat flips town we probably don't lose the game on the spot, and Wilgy gets exposed as the deepwolf.

LC has townsided hard enough on a day where the scum got everything they wanted, plus has good tone. So I'm clearing him. Wilgy was on the Nata wagon, so he has to remain in the POE for me.

Maybe we should just exe cat?

They can be scumbuddies with both Falcon and Jiwon. Whichever one of Falcon/Jiwon is scum probably did not 8ball them since each of them has a strong case on the other and would be more inclined to 8ball the other, unless they're way bigger brained than I thought.

So Michelle and Falcon are fighting for most of the first three pages, then around page 4 they seem to mutually townread each other, and on page 5 Michelle says that she thinks Falcon/Nata is V/V.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:34 pm Michelle is probably town, but I don't care. I ain't got time for her malarkey

Falcon - you say here that you think Michelle is town, but vote for her anyway. Just because you're annoyed by her "malarkey"? Why?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:26 pm This discussion tone seems to indicate that Michelle and Alison are solving. Jiwon and Falcon can resolve against Natalija. Cat can be PoE'd.

@DrWilgy Natalija is resolved. What is your read on Jiwon/Falcon there?

cat wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:27 am Naked read is empty read without any explanation or context. Just writing down a name and allignment next to it.
I can see it's meta from your side but i wouldn't give points to someone because that's very easy to fake.

But Michelle feels sketchy for saying it's brave.
If it comes from mafia there's nothing brave about it. So my gut says it's likely mafia coming from the perspective that Wilgy is town or just pocketing.
[VOTE: Michelle] aubergine

Jiwon was completely focused on game 2 so i'll back the wagon even if it does have 3 votes already. But it felt so blatantly scummy that i'll say if it does flip mafia the voter is already on there.
That would be Falcon/Wilgy/Natalija.

This looks bad knowing that MIchelle and Natalija are both town.

JiwonMeganPark wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:36 pm

Natalija wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:15 pm

JiwonMeganPark wrote: ↑Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:58 pm [VOTE: Natalija] aubergine

Revenge vote?

i meant to vote for you even before moderator started the poll but wrong person

This is a potential scumslip. Now that we know Nata was the 8ball, the people who want to vote Nata before the moderator starts the poll would be those that selected her as the 8ball.

If Falcon is scum why doesn't he kill me and pocket Michelle? Michelle thought he was town. He could kill me, 8ball Jiwon and win with Michelle suspecting Jiwon.

Falcon's vote progression on Nata had a more townie rationale. He started the day voting elsewhere, and only shifted to Nata as self-pres. Self-pres is NAI.

Jiwon started off voting Nata. Then when asked why they were voting Nata and not Falcon, they said "oh yeah" and switched to Falcon. That looks scummier than Falcon's shift, because it looks like Jiwon wanted to exe Nata at first, but then realized they couldn't justify/back up the read and shifted to Falcon instead.

Michelle's legacy was that Nata/Falcon was V/V and she was right about Nata. She was also nightkilled after saying that, while the person who was shielding Jiwon/attacking Falcon was left alive despite also being consensus townread and being relatively loud in the thread. If Falcon was scum, I think he kills me most of the time - I was on him, and I had correctly identified him as being the scum over Nata. Further, the suspicious actions that Falcon took early on in D1 don't have as much scum agenda if Nata isn't the 8ball.

Am currently leaning towards Jiwon on the Falcon/Jiwon scale. I'm going to look into Wilgy/cat later. I think cat's vote looked worse on the surface.

Jiwon starts off by voting Nata, but after I prod her about Falcon, she agrees with my case and votes Falcon.

Falcon starts off by voting Jiwon, but after receiving pressure, and Nata becoming his counterwagon, he votes Nata in self-pres.

LC is a slot that looks good off the EOD because he had no reason to vote Falcon (Nata was a very easy vote to justify) but he stayed the course and allowed the EOD to be close.

I don't believe that the Nata wagon is pure, there's at least 1 scum on it. That scum could be cat or Wilgy, I'm leaning towards cat. And the other scum is probably within Jiwon/Falcon.

Okay, so Jiwon wasn't the 8 ball.

I'm basically picking between Falcon and Jiwon right now. I'm going to track each of their progressions on Nata knowing that she's the 8ball and see which one seemed more like they were trying to kill specifically her.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:16 am So Natalie suspected Jiwon, who complained about being the 8th and the wagon dissipated. Side note, Nat didn't town read Alison.
A good citizen tends to omgus but Jiwon who voted Odd without reason and kept the RVS on the same slot didn't bother very much with voting Natalie but shaded her in 2 posts.
Her vote for Falcon is a sheep of Alison

The famous 3 people wagon can be for mafia, there are few things that show Jiwon has scum behaviour, like I pistes above.

Ideas?

What do you think of cat then? He voted Jiwon, then moved to Nata without seeming like he really cared about the outcome. I know you townread Falcon.

Jiwon still seems like the 8ball to me unless you are asking me to believe that 4 townies naked voted her at the start. Occam's Razor is that at least one of them had malicious intent based on the fact that none of them seemed to have strong reasonings for their votes.

Also, who do you think was the 8ball D1 if not Jiwon?

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:16 am So Natalie suspected Jiwon, who complained about being the 8th and the wagon dissipated. Side note, Nat didn't town read Alison.
A good citizen tends to omgus but Jiwon who voted Odd without reason and kept the RVS on the same slot didn't bother very much with voting Natalie but shaded her in 2 posts.
Her vote for Falcon is a sheep of Alison

The famous 3 people wagon can be for mafia, there are few things that show Jiwon has scum behaviour, like I pistes above.

Ideas?

What do you think of cat then? He voted Jiwon, then moved to Nata without seeming like he really cared about the outcome. I know you townread Falcon.

Jiwon still seems like the 8ball to me unless you are asking me to believe that 4 townies naked voted her at the start. Occam's Razor is that at least one of them had malicious intent based on the fact that none of them seemed to have strong reasonings for their votes.

Also, who do you think was the 8ball D1 if not Jiwon?

Hi. As said before I couldn't be around for EOD and was busy dealing with the fallout from Overtime. EOD happened at like 3am local time so it's just not something I'll be around for very often. I'm pretty well known for missing EODs on the Syndicate.

So far I think the EOD makes Michelle look townie because of the defense of Nata and the constant poking at the dead air felt like a real villager uncomfortable with the way the day is going. Discomfort is especially a towntell here when the end result was that town coasted to a misexe on LHF.

I still mainly suspect Falcon and cat, and have become slightly more wary of Wilgy since he was on the Jiwon wagon (who I suspect to be 8balled Day 1), and then moved to Nata (who flipped green). I still think Wilgy has been overall townie and would rather look at Falcon and cat first. cat's vote on Nata was honestly not great and echoes the problems I had with their vote on Jiwon. Falcon is the counterwagon to flipped town and I don't believe that his use of sycophant was expressing a genuine scumread. Town Falcon is blunt and direct about his scumreads, he'll tell you why you're suspicious and how if he suspects you. I don't see him offhandedly calling someone a sycophant without much follow up as being an expression of a real scumread for him.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:52 am

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:50 am

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:44 am

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:24 am If you're town surely you should be investigating the possibility that you're being played. You've admitted that you don't understand why others are sheeping the wagon on Jiwon. From the POV of a town Falcon, wouldn't you suspect that maybe your initial scumread on Jiwon was being used by mafia members?

I'm suspicious of Nat, and I'm null on Dr W.

ok.

Overtime Mafia just ended, kinda badly, so I'll be attending to that for a bit and I'll sleep on this stuff and come back and see.

Oh snap, I'll go take a peek at what happened

Someone pulled a SixFoot, basically.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:44 am

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:24 am If you're town surely you should be investigating the possibility that you're being played. You've admitted that you don't understand why others are sheeping the wagon on Jiwon. From the POV of a town Falcon, wouldn't you suspect that maybe your initial scumread on Jiwon was being used by mafia members?

I'm suspicious of Nat, and I'm null on Dr W.

ok.

Overtime Mafia just ended, kinda badly, so I'll be attending to that for a bit and I'll sleep on this stuff and come back and see.

If you're town surely you should be investigating the possibility that you're being played. You've admitted that you don't understand why others are sheeping the wagon on Jiwon. From the POV of a town Falcon, wouldn't you suspect that maybe your initial scumread on Jiwon was being used by mafia members?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:15 am Tell me why the wagon on Jiwan is corrupt

Because I haven't seen a single compelling reason given as to why they're scum. The absolute most is... that they're a sycophant for trying to suck up to nanook. The wagon formation makes me suspect they're the 8 ball, as stated previously. Unless I've missed something, Nata still hasn't given a reason for the naked vote, and as Wilgy has already pointed out, cat's vote there doesn't make much sense.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:55 am Alison is pushing a lot of narratives right meow

Offer an alternative explanation for why 3 poorly-reasoned votes materialized on Jiwon the instant the game started.

Tell me why the wagon on Jiwon is pure.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 am @cat your vote doesn't make sense then. If you think there's a chance Jiwon is called or that Natalija and Jiwon are buddies, Why are you voting Jiwon instead of Natalija?

Because they're Falcon's buddy and want a nightkill.

cat wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:50 am No i change my mind. My theory is Jiwon and Natalija are buddies.
[VOTE: JiwonMeganPark] aubergine

This looks a lot like a falcon buddy.

What made you switch your mind off Jiwon being LHF because the alternative is too big brained for you to consider?

cat wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:38 am I disagree, i dont think Jiwon is the called shot, but im biased because i found D0 sus myself. 3 votes immediatly is obvious to begin with, and shows that atleast 2 townies thought they were being sus. It's most likely Wilgy or me as the called shot.
No self-respecting mafia runs up on their target the instant D1 starts. It's more likely Jiwon is a regular townie or mafia and the other mafia is turning a 2 vote to 3 and making it look like they are LHF. But that's a big brain play so i'm not going after it.

First of all, how do you know there's 2 townies on Jiwon? Why can't both mafia be on them?

Second, if Jiwon was legitimately scummy and was being voted by townies, wouldn't those townies give a strong case on them or provide reasoning as to why they're scum? LIke part of the reason I called Jiwon as the 8ball was because the votes that were put on them came completely out of the blue, and were unsupported by a believable progression and sometimes completely naked/unannounced.

Why not Falcon?

What are your actual reads LC?

And Falcon, the 8ball is the player that the mafia have targeted, such that if we exe them the mafia get a nightkill.

Falcon who do you think is the 8 ball?

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:44 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:29 am natalija made an undeclared vote on Jiwon. Also no explanation. So them and Falcon are my scum pool right now.

Wilgy is the towniest player so far (never thought I'd say that), Michelle has been fairly townie and would be extremely so if Falcon is scum. I still townread LC. Everyone else is null.

How does your reads look if I'm town? Which is a guarantee btw.

I still think the wagon that ballooned on Jiwon for no apparent reason was incredibly sketchy. Where I'm standing, the vote movements point towards Jiwon being the 8 ball for being run up very fast the moment D1 started. The fact that it quickly dismantled after I pointed that out suggests that mafia realized they were a bit too obvious and are trying to hide.

So if you're town, I'd look elsewhere on the initial Jiwon wagon for mafia.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:21 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:26 am I checked N0. The only person who had suspicion voiced on them was Wilgy voicing suspicion on Jiwon. In a vacuum I'd think that the people most likely to be selected by the mafia for exeing are the people who have suspicion on them (unless they themselves are scum), or Wilgy, since he's the most commonly misexed player.

Wilgy's being shielded by two players, one of whom I know to be town (me). That means that I think either Jiwon is scum, or the mafia targeted Jiwon for execution. If it's the latter then Falcon's vote looks super suspicious. I think town Falcon tends to be more paranoid and needly and constantly poke and prod at people he suspects, usually with strong, blunt rhetoric. This naked vote stuff isn't like him at all.

I like this. Unless you were hunting for a means to yeet Falcon to get that sweet sweet NK.

Naw. I wouldn't pick Falcon was the 8 ball if I was scum. He can be really townie if he wants to be. And the suspicious move on Jiwon occurred after N0, so I'd have no way of knowing that he was going to do something I could push him for.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:05 am

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:23 am Falcon why did you open the day with a vote on Jiwon? You didn't voice any suspicion of them before. Methinks you saw Wilgy suspect Jiwon, selected Jiwon as the exe target, and are trying to get a wagon rolling.

Pretty sure I called Jiwon a sycophant before Dr Wilgy even entered the thread, but Imma check.

So why's that scummy? If Jiwon was a sycophant to someone in the thread, yeah, maybe that's a pocket attempt. Nanook wasn't in the thread though, suggesting that it's out of a personal like of him rather than alignment related.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:22 am What does it mean to be the 8-ball?

Check the OP. The 8 ball is the person targeted by the mafia. If we exe the 8 ball, the mafia get a nightkill. If we don't exe the 8 ball, they don't.

JiwonMeganPark wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:34 am Prattay sure I am the 8 ball here

If you think you're the 8 ball then you presumably agree that there's a really good chance that there's at least 1 scum on your wagon. Who do you think it is?

Michelle wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:42 am

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 12:29 am natalija made an undeclared vote on Jiwon. Also no explanation. So them and Falcon are my scum pool right now.

Wilgy is the towniest player so far (never thought I'd say that), Michelle has been fairly townie and would be extremely so if Falcon is scum. I still townread LC. Everyone else is null.

What LC did to deserve a TR?
What was towny at me?

LC's is more of a toneread - as I said before, he strikes me as unselfconscious and relaxed, when I see him more wound up as scum. I'm not going to lock him town off it or anything, but I have a decently track record at getting there on LC's alignment, so I'm happy to give it as an early read.

For you, it's mostly because I tend to model you as having more explosive starts when you're town, wanting to get the ball rolling and trying to establish relationships and engage with players. I tend to think - at least from what I saw of your play in Champs - that you try harder to fade into the background as scum. I also think that you tend to pay close attention to the dynamics of other players interacting with you as a basis for developing reads as town, and I've seen evidence of that attention - eg. in #72.

cat wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:27 am Jiwon was completely focused on game 2 so i'll back the wagon even if it does have 3 votes already. But it felt so blatantly scummy that i'll say if it does flip mafia the voter is already on there.
That would be Falcon/Wilgy/Natalija.

I don't get this read.

And why are you voting Michelle if you think there's scum on the Jiwon wagon in all worlds?

A naked vote is a vote without a reasoning or progression, so I'm not sure what you mean by naked read.

natalija made an undeclared vote on Jiwon. Also no explanation. So them and Falcon are my scum pool right now.

Wilgy is the towniest player so far (never thought I'd say that), Michelle has been fairly townie and would be extremely so if Falcon is scum. I still townread LC. Everyone else is null.

I checked N0. The only person who had suspicion voiced on them was Wilgy voicing suspicion on Jiwon. In a vacuum I'd think that the people most likely to be selected by the mafia for exeing are the people who have suspicion on them (unless they themselves are scum), or Wilgy, since he's the most commonly misexed player.

Wilgy's being shielded by two players, one of whom I know to be town (me). That means that I think either Jiwon is scum, or the mafia targeted Jiwon for execution. If it's the latter then Falcon's vote looks super suspicious. I think town Falcon tends to be more paranoid and needly and constantly poke and prod at people he suspects, usually with strong, blunt rhetoric. This naked vote stuff isn't like him at all.

Falcon why did you open the day with a vote on Jiwon? You didn't voice any suspicion of them before. Methinks you saw Wilgy suspect Jiwon, selected Jiwon as the exe target, and are trying to get a wagon rolling.

What's with the nanook references

Checking in. I'm snowed under with games atm, which means I'll be moving slow, but the thread is as well so it's probably fine. I have a townread on LC and Wilgy. LC is unselfconscious in the way he is when he's town and isn't when he's scum, and tryhard Wilgy probably means town Wilgy. The awareness that he could be selected as the exe target is a good look for him as well.