The Syndicate

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:32 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm is it unreasonable for me to assume that outed wolf's wolf equity increases significantly if amy is a villager?

dont wanna seem like im setting up chops, but i was just thinking about how outed wolf and amy seem to have a unique dynamic where outed wolf is (presumably?) very good at correctly identifying amy's alignment, and he is confident that amy is a wolf. dyachei has a similar dynamic and claims to have the opposite impression. my gut tells me that an amy/dya wolfteam is too easy - it's just such a level 0 solve

for the record, nl's only played against my towngame once before this that i can recall, and that was rocks

every other time i've played against him i THINK has been a wolfgame

and he's caught me in most of those games, yes

but given current events, i'm not convinced that means he has a good read on me

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:31 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:26 pm vulgard and nutella aren't here, arete is (was?) here but doesn't feel like they're doing anything, nl vaporized or something, chloe is sheeping, alison is self-presing

frustrating wagon

arete what are your thoughts on like... anything, really?

just general gamestate overview, i guess

I've been having thoughts!!!! if you want specific new thoughts that aren't just the previous thoughts but rephrased slightly differently you're going to need to be specific

right now I'm looking through c4 and SPF's posts to try and verify Dya's progression case on him, it felt a bit agenda-y to me but I think some of that is that I was already villagereading c4. so far I've determined that Dya at the very least didn't leave out important posts in between the ones they quoted but I'm still overall not impressed by it, like I can't speak to c4's meta in particular but most wolves are not so incompetent as to literally just completely forget what their previous reads were.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm is it unreasonable for me to assume that outed wolf's wolf equity increases significantly if amy is a villager?

dont wanna seem like im setting up chops, but i was just thinking about how outed wolf and amy seem to have a unique dynamic where outed wolf is (presumably?) very good at correctly identifying amy's alignment, and he is confident that amy is a wolf. dyachei has a similar dynamic and claims to have the opposite impression. my gut tells me that an amy/dya wolfteam is too easy - it's just such a level 0 solve

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:28 pm dya what's your read on zack

maybe I'm pocketed but I kind of like his dgaf attitude

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:17 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:13 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:07 pm im pretty confident. Even when everyone else thinks you're scum I've been able to find you as town. like in anni last year

cool

and thanks for bringing up anni actually

cause what's been giving me pause for the last little bit is the fact that i'm currently top wagon over alison, who iirc is your top scumread

and that these wagons have (at least fmpov) felt pretty static ever since they got that way

and i feel like you've never been shy about shielding your townreads when they're under heavy fire; you did that for me a LOT in anni, and we both did it for tyranno in hydra game 1 when you were confident he was town

i would in fact expect this to be doubly the case in a situation where the counterwagon is someone you're very heavily scumreading

you HAVE stated that i'm your top town, which, yeah, cool

but i feel like you're engaging with other people's reads on me a lot less than i'd expect given that read, and given the gamestate we currently find ourselves in

and you were engaging w/ reads on alison earlier today, but alison's been talked about a fair bit the past few cages and you're like... doing something else entirely

and i just don't really feel a sense of urgency from you?

like in a sense it feels like you've got me as your top town primarily because you know i SHOULD be your top town and because you want to appease/pocket/whatever me, but you're not playing like that's true

so like... help me out here. has the read weakened over time? am i jumping at shadows? outside of your alison read your head feels a lot more black-box than i'm used to, and while i realize it's a light game, i still feel like your thread positioning isn't what i would expect it to be here

why are you posting like cuth

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:15 pm the read hasn't weakened over time, my busy-ness has. I had work and now am dealing with some stuff on MU and trying to catch up on reading certain things

but like no one's listening to me anyway

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 9:07 pm im pretty confident. Even when everyone else thinks you're scum I've been able to find you as town. like in anni last year

outed wolf wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:54 pm im here

you better paint a convincing picture as to why it aint you and who i should be looking into

Arete wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:51 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:43 pm @Amy Should I bus you?

um

is scumchat on the Syndicate usually on Discord or on the forum itself?

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:38 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:31 pm below this spoiler is the meat of alison's exchange with dya during the seth shit d1; dya was the main person accusing them of being w/v

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:50 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:49 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:47 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:46 pm i think it's w/v

Why can't it be V/V?

because neither of you are villagery. you least of all

Let's say I flip green right now and my arguments that Gavial has been essentially NAI this game are proven to be made in good faith. Are you going to treat him as outed wolf because we're "W/V"?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:55 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:53 pm no, i'm going to treat him as a wolf because his iso in that other game is a lot villagerier than this game and it's not just about whether he posts or not?

why would you flipping green mean you were right on gavial? you've already shown me you can't compare likes

I mean it sounds like you've already made up your mind that we're both wolfy and you're confbiasing the hell out of it then.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 10:06 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 pm you showed me a village game of gav's. that's not his behavior here. therefore he's wolfy rn

you have shown me you're not really paying attention to the game but you're making hard conclusions on it. I'm not sure you give a fuck about this game rn but the thoughts you're providing to the thread are really shallow for you. therefore, you're being wolfy

those things exist no matter what. is it now conf bias to have reads on people?

i'm going to bed

Just to clarify because there's been a lot of talk about how different Gavial was between that game and this. I am not saying that Gavial is exactly the same between that game and this. I actually townread Gavial confidently for being different from Fallout 2 (where he was a wolf) in that game and here I am NAI on him. I am using that link to demonstrate that he can engage in some of the behaviors you're scumreading him for even when he is town. For instance, Amy wrote that she felt that Gavial was just faffing about and doesn't really care about deeply engaging with other players. That's something I think he did in Double Elimination as well, he just pushed his own concerns, told people to fuck off when they were scumreading him and didn't really care to realtime with them or try to seriously evaluate them.

I don't think it's fair or accurate to accuse me of not paying attention to the game. I don't think my thoughts have been shallow at all, and yes I think you're confbiased because you've said that if I were to flip town you wouldn't take my reads and thoughts into account at all. Which is literally confbias, refusing to update your beliefs in light of new evidence.

below THIS spoiler is the exchange she had with c4; c4 was the main person accusing them of being w/w

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:40 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:39 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:38 pm c4's treatment of me is so disingenuous that I'm just going to vote him.

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

You really think I can do something like this as a wolf?

Yes obviously.

Mostly I just feel like your attacks on me have been opportunistic timing-wise and not really reflective of how things went down.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:44 pm What exactly have you done that's out of your wolfrange c4?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:48 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:44 pm What exactly have you done that's out of your wolfrange c4?

This whole damn game

You saw me freeze on every single push I ever made in CoV
You saw me do jack shit to advance jack shit from my worldview in CoV
You saw me shamelessly TMI every controversial name in CoV

How tf

I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm scumreading you because you're trying to push a very wrong narrative about me.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:58 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:56 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:53 pm I caught you in COV because you had terrible associatives with MR. I did not note any particular "freezing" in your pushes or any lack of advancing your worldview. You kinda openwolfed in COV which is why you were caught by association with a red flip, and you pushing me for really bad reasons here is entirely compatible with that play.

"You were wolfy in these two games so they're the same" smh

So is the team exactly me/dya/spf/Zack if the reasons are that bad then? Or is there something specific about the way I did it?

I think you've pushed the narrative that I am trying to protect Gavial because I'm W/W with him the hardest, which I think is pretty blatantly untrue in both senses. The others may be concerned about my alignment, but they're at least trying to figure me out/reason with me, whereas you're just, like, letting other people pile on and then pointing a finger and going "Alison is so wolfy smhsmh".

i think she reacts pretty strongly to both accusations

Those are so different lolwut

sunbae wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:19 pm Amy, spoiler is nutella read but put some shades on first cause the format is bayyyyyud
second one is arete thing

Spoiler: show

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:38 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:30 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 9:29 pm I kinda wanna just yeet alison, marl, and nutella into the great sky daddy yee haw

woah wait did i miss the part where you're scumreading nutella

talk to me about that one because i pretty strongly disagree

nutellas posts regarding gav and kza read to me as someone that knows both are flipping by start of d2 and is just getting the easy kza "cred"

Off Topic

Hally: the play makes no sense from kza's perspective if he's partnered with gav
it's possible he's tmi-ing him town or it's possible he's town with a ??? take but i dont see what kza has to gain from his posts on gav if they are partnered

Nutella: i think it's decently likely theyre just both wolves

it's not like kza really committed to a strong read on gav, just sort of waved his hand a bit

it's possible he has tmi and gav is actually town but meh

Off Topic

Nutella: vulgards confidence on gav flipping wolf solidifies mine as well, though I was already pretty confident based on how he's behaving

probably keeping symbolic vote on dya for the heck of it

Kza us probably just a wolf too atp

Off Topic

c4: do i need to bother making a read on kza

nutella: na, assuming gav chop vig get kza

Off Topic

amy: i think we stick with gav here?

Nutella: yeah it's prob better to just stick with him

idk

my vote is on kza and i think he has an equal if not higher chance of flipping wolf and i'd be happy with either going over

fight me on that if you want, i get the appeal of just flipping gav regardless

That is someone that knows Gav is flipping villa and kza is dead too and wants the kza cred early

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:43 pm

Arete wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 8:15 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 7:55 pm Arete, can you let me know as briefly as possible why at eod you were approaching the game from a "I don't want people to turn on Vulgard so here's a long explanation of a villa read" perspective when if Gav flipped wolf nobody would ever be questioning Vul yet would start to ponder that alignment if Gav flipped villa? This is not a gotcha or a post to shade you, this is flat out just a question hoping I can get a better handle of your pov as eod went down.

I mostly wasn't thinking about Gavial's flip at all (although I did think they were more likely to flip town than scum), I was more thinking, like, if I randomly died N1 or N2 or something, and he were still alive on D4, he's the general-sort-of-player the thread might turn on, particularly if his reads turned out to be wrong (townread for relatively nebulous reasons, not close friends with anyone outside the FoL crowd afaik, nobody except me had particularly strong meta on him) and I wanted to make sure that didn't happen

if Gavial had actually been a wolf I don't think people would have been likely to immediately turn on him but I don't think that really would have reduced the likelihood of people turning on him on day 4, no one was going to give anyone cred for a Gavial hit, although I wasn't specifically thinking about that possibility at EoD

also I didn't care about the wagons, like, at all and I didn't really have strong reads other than Vul but I wanted to do something so that I didn't feel totally useless

am i sucker for just saying "coming up with the idea that it was a 5d chess with multiverse time travel move to prevent vul from getting fear killed 8 real life days from now is just like a town with a strange worry in the back of their head that they needed to throw out there and never a wolf who came up with this explanation"? cause I want to say "coming up with the idea that it was a 5d chess with multiverse time travel move to prevent vul from getting fear killed 8 real life days from now is just like a town with a strange worry in the back of their head that they needed to throw out there and never a wolf who came up with this explanation".

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:31 pm below this spoiler is the meat of alison's exchange with dya during the seth shit d1; dya was the main person accusing them of being w/v

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:50 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:49 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:47 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:46 pm i think it's w/v

Why can't it be V/V?

because neither of you are villagery. you least of all

Let's say I flip green right now and my arguments that Gavial has been essentially NAI this game are proven to be made in good faith. Are you going to treat him as outed wolf because we're "W/V"?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:55 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:53 pm no, i'm going to treat him as a wolf because his iso in that other game is a lot villagerier than this game and it's not just about whether he posts or not?

why would you flipping green mean you were right on gavial? you've already shown me you can't compare likes

I mean it sounds like you've already made up your mind that we're both wolfy and you're confbiasing the hell out of it then.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 10:06 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:57 pm you showed me a village game of gav's. that's not his behavior here. therefore he's wolfy rn

you have shown me you're not really paying attention to the game but you're making hard conclusions on it. I'm not sure you give a fuck about this game rn but the thoughts you're providing to the thread are really shallow for you. therefore, you're being wolfy

those things exist no matter what. is it now conf bias to have reads on people?

i'm going to bed

Just to clarify because there's been a lot of talk about how different Gavial was between that game and this. I am not saying that Gavial is exactly the same between that game and this. I actually townread Gavial confidently for being different from Fallout 2 (where he was a wolf) in that game and here I am NAI on him. I am using that link to demonstrate that he can engage in some of the behaviors you're scumreading him for even when he is town. For instance, Amy wrote that she felt that Gavial was just faffing about and doesn't really care about deeply engaging with other players. That's something I think he did in Double Elimination as well, he just pushed his own concerns, told people to fuck off when they were scumreading him and didn't really care to realtime with them or try to seriously evaluate them.

I don't think it's fair or accurate to accuse me of not paying attention to the game. I don't think my thoughts have been shallow at all, and yes I think you're confbiased because you've said that if I were to flip town you wouldn't take my reads and thoughts into account at all. Which is literally confbias, refusing to update your beliefs in light of new evidence.

below THIS spoiler is the exchange she had with c4; c4 was the main person accusing them of being w/w

Spoiler: show

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:40 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:39 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:38 pm c4's treatment of me is so disingenuous that I'm just going to vote him.

[VOTE: c4] aubergine

You really think I can do something like this as a wolf?

Yes obviously.

Mostly I just feel like your attacks on me have been opportunistic timing-wise and not really reflective of how things went down.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:44 pm What exactly have you done that's out of your wolfrange c4?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:48 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:44 pm What exactly have you done that's out of your wolfrange c4?

This whole damn game

You saw me freeze on every single push I ever made in CoV
You saw me do jack shit to advance jack shit from my worldview in CoV
You saw me shamelessly TMI every controversial name in CoV

How tf

I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm scumreading you because you're trying to push a very wrong narrative about me.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:58 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:56 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:53 pm I caught you in COV because you had terrible associatives with MR. I did not note any particular "freezing" in your pushes or any lack of advancing your worldview. You kinda openwolfed in COV which is why you were caught by association with a red flip, and you pushing me for really bad reasons here is entirely compatible with that play.

"You were wolfy in these two games so they're the same" smh

So is the team exactly me/dya/spf/Zack if the reasons are that bad then? Or is there something specific about the way I did it?

I think you've pushed the narrative that I am trying to protect Gavial because I'm W/W with him the hardest, which I think is pretty blatantly untrue in both senses. The others may be concerned about my alignment, but they're at least trying to figure me out/reason with me, whereas you're just, like, letting other people pile on and then pointing a finger and going "Alison is so wolfy smhsmh".

i think she reacts pretty strongly to both accusations

Alison wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:29 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:07 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:50 pm sunbae, you have a gun with 3 bullets. who are you shooting?

feel free to get as "if x, then y" with it as you like

anyone else is free to answer this as well

Alison!

If town - Bronana!
If scum - Amy?

I tried going further, but I can't.

Shouldnt you be shooting amy if im town?

I would prolly shoot amy, then dya, then dizzy

Dizzy my read on you is based on the fact that you're reading me badly + the Hally kill + your D1 EOD.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:16 pm Anyway,

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Thu May 27, 2021 6:01 pm Alison reacted viscerally to me calling her/Seth w/w, and barely reacted to the myriad of others calling her/Seth w/v. If Alison's a wolf, the w/v accusations are the actually threatening ones. With how raw and immediate the reaction was, Alison's probably just town that thought I was setting her up for Seth flipping red.

@Amy @bronana @dyachei @Dyslexicon @staypositivefriend

Reads of this length are my favorite
They're long enough to thoroughly get the point across, but they're short enough that you can just... chuck them at people ya know?

sunbae wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:10 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:00 pm i'm also looking to clear up people's issues re: my slot, so @ me with concerns (that aren't tonal, obviously) and hopefully i can explain my mindset to a satisfactory degree

1. You seemed flabbergasted that I had nutella as a wolf and asked me why and have followed up actual zero percent on it

2. We haven't really tried to work through any alignments like we did with Alette last game and that was legit my favorite part of playing mafia in the last few years at least possibly longer

3. You keep throwing out that you think I might be problematic but haven't really tried to engage me on anything this game despite my perspective being really, really, really different to everyone elses. I have weird villa reads on Outed Wolf and Arete for instance. Maybe even a weird on on c4 and Marl?

How come you dont want me

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:03 pm If I ignore arete and vulgard godreading each other town, I'm not sure how villagy I actually think they are

maybe they're w/w and playing it up for theater, but I feel like this saying that:

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:55 pm my biggest issue with zack is that it felt like after people started theorizing a me/him/dya wolfteam he kinda... shifted his positioning in the threadstate, such that it more closely aligned with mine and dya's? i can try to elaborate on what i mean by this but i'd have to pull quotes and i'm still kinda multitasking

and like, normally that would be a good thing! cause at the very least i can be secure in my own alignment, so zack agreeing with me should be a good thing

but it just felt... too convenient. and like, if i were a wolf in zack's position, that's probably exactly what i'd do - try to tie myself to a villager(/villagers, if dya is green) and bank on people cooling on the team read when that flip comes back

i have some other concerns about zack but i want to reread to see if they're worth anything

@Dyslexicon you asked me earlier what i meant by not being worried about zack after kza's flip - it was mostly a pretty level 1 "i remember zack wanting to kill kza yesterday, so that's probably a good look for him" sort of thing. i know some people have since cased his kza progression; i haven't had the chance to go back and look at it myself

if you are a villager, and i was a wolf, in this gamestate ... I would just be trying to kill you.

why would i even be trying to tie myself to you when you are ahead of me in the POE idgi, I'm under suspicion but I've never felt like me dying today was a serious threat.

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:33 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:31 pm also, zack:

to what extent do wolves even have to bury me in a threadstate where a lot of loud villagers are scumreading me lol

shrug, this is just gonna go in circles and your question's underlying assumption that no wolves are currently pushing/suspecting you is likely not true if you're town?

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:22 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:19 pm

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:14 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:09 pm zack, sunbae thoughts?

Awesome pics. Great size. Looking thick. Solid. Tight. Sunbae, keep us all posted on your continued progress with any new read progressions or wallposts. Show us what you got man. Wanna see how freakin' huge, solid, thick and tight you can get. Thanks for the motivation.

Generally positive and I vibe with his reads tiers even if I don't agree with it 100%, I don't really have an issue with him but I don't have him locked in or anything. I don't know that I am a great Sunbae reader tbh

mm

reason i ask is that a lot of the suspicion on me rn (nutella chloe vulgard most notably) is coming from places that i'm pretty sure are town

so the question bouncing around my head a lot rn is "how have wolves been trying to play it towards my slot"

and there have been... a couple of times, where the paranoid part of me has wondered if sunbae's trying to pocket me

and it's perhaps a thought i should entertain for a bit

why would he be pocketing you? no offense but in the current gamestate, if you're town wolves should be trying to bury you. This is a hard group to get in misyeets - a man lost in the desert must take such water as he is offered, yknow?

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:49 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 12:34 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:23 am Wait vulgard, how did you only quote the posts where I didn't explain and none of the posts where I did?

I think both alison and gav are independently wolfy. I think if alison is a wolf, gav is probably villa because of the whiteknighting that she's kind of sort of doing

I'm not really sure why that's hard to understand?

and nutella why would my "wolf agenda" ever be pushing alison when I know she's a hard elim to make happen?

maybe because you think it looks good, even if you can't stop gav from going over you have tried to push an original suspect

I see you've moved your vote to gav since, but the length of time your vote was parked on alison while you danced around a gav suspicion was concerning to me

dyachei wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:51 am it's really getting old that people think they should dictate how I play the game. I play on my own terms with my own style. I guess if you don't like it, that's tough for you

????

who is doing that

you did to a degree when you bitched about me wasting posts and how anxiety inducing that was.

I moved to gavial because the more he posts the more i think he's a wolf. I think there's a world where alison is a wolf and gav is villa though

alison's posts have really skeeved me out and I'm sorry that's apparently a problem for you

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:14 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:09 pm zack, sunbae thoughts?

Awesome pics. Great size. Looking thick. Solid. Tight. Sunbae, keep us all posted on your continued progress with any new read progressions or wallposts. Show us what you got man. Wanna see how freakin' huge, solid, thick and tight you can get. Thanks for the motivation.

Generally positive and I vibe with his reads tiers even if I don't agree with it 100%, I don't really have an issue with him but I don't have him locked in or anything. I don't know that I am a great Sunbae reader tbh