The Syndicate

katze wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 9:01 pm nice try staypositivefriend

you just need to work on communication, positioning, reads, projecting villageriness, wolfing, faking reads, pushing lunches, pushing mislunches, teamwork, fake claiming, mechanics, activity, and threadpull before you hit the big leagues

im going to throw you out a window

sorry for gaslighting you so hard kate lol

Camilla wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:22 pm @staypositivefriend

Did you intentionally bus Seanzie or was it an attempt at distancing that went wrong? I cleared you over it as bussing felt horribly unnecessary there.

it was not intentional. the idea was that i would vote seanzie for roughly ~5 minutes toward the end of the day, to create some distance btwn me and him, and then switch off to one of the other wagons

but then everyone voted seanzie with me and i felt like i wasn't able to switch off lol

so yeah, one of those distancing plays that just went horribly wrong

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:14 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:04 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:01 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:00 pm sad that i couldn't carry it home tbh but i didn't expect to get this far in the first place, and town played really well

gj to everyone, but especially psv for overcoming the pocket at the last second
Never underestimate my ability to straight up panic tbh
out of curiosity, what made you decide to switch to me?
Your response post to Neon's vote felt tickly. With two votes on the table I realized I should probably actually investigate. I skimmed your ISO and noticed you TRing Seanzie for imo unjustified reasons and there was one point where you mentioned low activity players and listed three, including falcon, which triggered my rule of three paranoia. Plus Seanzie's initial solve with me, you, Neon came back to haunt me.
I also felt like Neon's vote on you was so out of pocket for a wolf cruising along. I remembered from my last game someone said disengaged Neon is more likely to be town neon. So then I was like welp, okay! And voted before I could change my mind

mm that makes sense

in retrospect i probably should have voted neon right when the day started, cause i suspected she might instavote me, but i didn't wanna come off too eager lol

Camilla wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:11 pm @staypositivefriend

Why did you kill me lol?

So much for a warm welcome for my first game on the site lmao.

lol sorry, iirc it was because you were essentially leading the game at the time, and i wanted the least thread cohesion possible

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:01 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 7:00 pm sad that i couldn't carry it home tbh but i didn't expect to get this far in the first place, and town played really well

gj to everyone, but especially psv for overcoming the pocket at the last second
Never underestimate my ability to straight up panic tbh

out of curiosity, what made you decide to switch to me?

sad that i couldn't carry it home tbh but i didn't expect to get this far in the first place, and town played really well

gj to everyone, but especially psv for overcoming the pocket at the last second

anyway @potentialsheltervet you have all the information you need to vote correctly but let me know what you need from me. im open to chatting or town casing myself or scum casing neon or w/e

But anyway neon would never make that vote in this position as town and it would be an insult to her towngame to say that it would

I think this is a hail mary play since:

1. I've made it clear that I think it is probably just neon, and I was almost always going to hammer her if they crossed today

2. PSV said yesterday hat it was towny for neon to say that she might be town, so I think she's trying to take advantage of that to WIFOM her way into a victory, since she was prolly going to lose either way

I can't vote on mobile for some reason but I'll do it when I get back

Neon snapvoting me without talking or discussing further is outing FMPOv and if she's town then I'm more than happy to lose

[VOTE: neon ] aubergine

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:57 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:20 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:18 pm Or maybe I'll vote sig. Who knows.
do u think neon's posts rn are towny?

(asking for a friend)
Ehh. Tossup. I don't see why she would bother implying she thinks I'm town if she's mafia. I believe her most recent Poe was me/Dennis.

but you said that you thought it might be towny that she was implying you might be town, right?

so, how does that align with it being wolfy that she has flip flopped on you?

actually if you don't mind answering, what is the scummiest thing about neon FYPOV right now?

okay

I've been really tired of this game too so I get it

I was going to interrogate you more but I dont think I want to right now

I'm just gonna look back at some things

ironically that is actually probably my biggest obstacle to feeling confident right now

why aren't you more paranoid of me?

I'm on my phone rn but I'll be around in like an hour to double check some things/realtime more actively

I would really like neon to show up too

anyway my gut impression is that I think it's more likely to be neon than you but I'm a bit thrown off by the kill if I'm being honest

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 6:01 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 18, 2023 6:00 pm well

I guess I'm just wondering what incentive neon would have as a wolf to bring me to a f3 with you
What incentive do I have?

well yeah

I guess it's true that from either you or neons POV, the easier win is probably to bring me and sig to the f3 with you, instead of killing sig, since me and sig were kind of building up to thunderdoming each other

so I guess the logic for neon applies to you as too

because if neon is a wolf, then she is aware that:

A. you said that you wanted to vote her today

B. that i have been townreading you consistently

so, what would her angle be? To try get you to vote me? it seems unlikely, since you were townreading me a lot more than sig was

it's possible she intended to get me to vote for you - this tracks to an extent, since I've been confidently townreading neon for most of the game, possibly more confidently than I was townreading you

well

I guess I'm just wondering what incentive neon would have as a wolf to bring me to a f3 with you

oh for fucks sake

gl gl

so…………

let’s start with sig:

sig doesn’t really have a progression on seanzie to speak of. there isn't anything to analyze here, because he didn't talk about seanzie until after seanzie was already dead, and didn't have much of a presence in the game to speak of at the time

his progression on falcon is a bit more telling, though:

sig wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 1:08 pm I'm eyeballing.
1. PSV for their low poster/no poster push + general vibes.
2. Dennis for his posting style and defense of kate I need to
3. Falcon for being well within his scum range.

sig wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 1:11 pm
Kate wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 1:08 pm Do you think Dennis and falcon could be w/w?
It would be odd given they were both just mafia, but so far they're in the POE so it is a possibility.

sig does come right out of the gate saying that he thinks falcon is well within his scumrange on d1, and signal boosting the idea that falcon is a wolf

sig wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 1:40 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 5:37 pm Does falcon still have that meta where if he doesn’t do anything he’s a wolf and if he puts in some effort he’s a villa?

Might just vote him if that’s the case, but i’m not sure
yes this is 100% still accurate.

sig wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 2:02 pm Falcon, PSV, Dennis, and maybe Ted(?) are my four

I don't think Ted/Falcon or Pyxxy/Falcon are W/W if Falcon is mafia both are cleared. But, I also have no idea why I just wrote that about Pyxxy.

PSV and SPF I need to ISO.

Camilla while being a solid Civ wasn't the only one so that points to one of her legacy reads being correct.

I disagree with the people who say a teammate wouldn't bus D1/D2. If you have a clear mafia read then I could see it. For example, in this case Falcon is nearly a consensus of the strong town reads at the moment, so I could see a bus there. D1 a bus could happen if you got caught up in the moment.

on d2, after seanzie has already died, sig also does give a boost to ted’s suspicions on falcon, and actively puts falcon in his immediate POE

from seanzie/falcon's side, there's nothing to read into here. seanzie did not interact with or mention sig at all. falcon also did not interact with or mention sig at all

i feel like i should have more to talk about here, but i honestly don't. sig was just not very involved with the conversations surrounding seanzie or falcon in general, which makes it difficult to analyze him from a more holistic pov

that said, i do have some thoughts about sig’s overall approach to seanzie/falcon, but i’m going to put a pin in that until i’ve completed the rest of the analysis

so, let’s move on to neon:

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 9:23 am
Neon wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 3:04 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:34 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:32 pm @Seanzie How are you drawing your conclusion? Do you not like Taylor Swift?
You entered with a song rather than a post. The first post is always the hardest for a wolf.
Why am I scum my lord?
Finally gettin' the respect I deserve.

Neon wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 7:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 7:08 pm im mafia tbh
Checks out

Vote: SPF
This looks like partners af.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 9:37 am
Neon wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 9:31 am Why does that make me scum though? Why can't I just have the same thought you do my lord.
Because I'm so good at this game I can tell the difference between people having thoughts and TMI.

so, the notable thing to me here is that seanzie does go out of his way to shade neon quite a lot in the early stages of the game. the shade is partially directed at me/PSV too, but the bulk of it seems to be directed at neon. ....hm. gonna put a pin in that thought for a moment

seanzie and neon interact a few more times throughout their ISO, but there isn't much to their interactions. i will note that seanzie did maintain his FOS on neon throughout his entire ISO

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:08 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:06 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:03 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:52 pm [VOTE: psv ] aubergine

nothing personal
Whoa

Kinda sounds personal
Hi. Why are you sheeping neon?

Neon is supremely town Neon.

There are a few signs I've learned to look for...like, she might be fakin' it? But nah

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 2:30 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 3:24 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:08 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:06 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:03 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:52 pm [VOTE: psv ] aubergine

nothing personal
Whoa

Kinda sounds personal
Hi. Why are you sheeping neon?

Neon is supremely town Neon.

There are a few signs I've learned to look for...like, she might be fakin' it? But nah
What makes me town here?

It's a combination of a few things, including your anime gif's & general solve energy.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 11:48 am Oh sweet, Neon is still town.

Let the summer sheep continue

now, on the other hand, falcon’s treatment of neon is very different from seanzie’s treatment of her. falcon townread neon quite strongly right out of the gate ,and he talked about/referenced his tr on her a LOT

in my initial analysis, i thought this was a point in favor of neon being town, and i honestly do still kind of feel that way…..it’s just pretty rare for wolves to go out of their way to strongly tr their partners like that, and some of the posts that falcon makes toward neon do look fairly pockety

Neon wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 4:36 pmVote: Sean

wrt to neon’s progression on seanzie, she talked TO seanzie quite a lot (particularly regarding his read on her), but she didn’t talk ABOUT seanzie much in general. she did end up silently voting for seanzie right around this point, for reasons that are a bit unclear/confusing to me

at this time, the seanzie wagon had already gained momentum, so kind of hard to give towncred here. it is positioned a bit like a bussing vote would be

Neon wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 5:35 am
Camilla wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 11:59 am
Neon wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 4:12 am
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 3:15 am im not actually sure if i townlean neon anymore because the specific stuff i was soul townreading (like comfort/consistency in her wolfread on me and psv) is something that is likely to be more playstyle indicative for neon than alignment indicative. i stand by the other reads that i said in the last page
Hmmm. I really like this post.

Town Core

Neon
SPF
Falcon
Why Falcon?
Vibes

Neon wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 5:45 pm Could be falcon. He pocketed me just last game as scum. I'm not really that pocketed here as my read there is mostly fake lol

neon’s progression on falcon is a bit more interesting - she starts off by putting falcon in her towncore on d1, though i find it notable that she says that her read on him is “mostly fake” on d1:

Neon wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 11:19 am Falcon is town

Sauce: me

Neon wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 11:29 am Quiet barely active doesn't give a fuck falcon is usually town ime he just wolfed and actually tried I think falcon is very much the type of player who cares about not letting his pack down so he's more active when scum.

Also also he just pocketed me as wolf and I'm not sure he's try to do literally the exact same thing two games in a row. That's uh less likely to be true though.

Neon wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 4:52 pm I think falcon has a 75% chance of being town

her townread on falcon seems to grow in confidence quite a lot when falcon became a wagon on d2, though. she defends him pretty actively and emphasizes that he is town multiple times

she also kind of like ...gives up around this time? she seems adamant that falcon is town but doesn't really do anything to shift the momentum at all. ...i also have some thoughts here, but gonna wait until the end of this analysis to say them

now, let's move on to PSV:

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:39 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:37 pm
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:34 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 8:32 pm @Seanzie How are you drawing your conclusion? Do you not like Taylor Swift?
You entered with a song rather than a post. The first post is always the hardest for a wolf.
...really
I am a rule follower. I am abiding by the rules.
You seem quite worried about a page 1 read. I'd vote you if I could.

seanzie essentially treats PSV the same way she treated neon - he opens d1 by putting some pressure on PSV and calling her wolfy

this read does shift quite a bit, though

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:30 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 11:00 am
Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 8:03 am
Neon wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:41 am
Camilla wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 12:18 am
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 11:56 pm
Camilla wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2023 11:36 pm There's a certain level of terseness and defensiveness displayed by PSV that caught my eye as everyone else kind of just shrugged off Seanzie's "suspicions" which felt more like a shitpost but PSV kind of just interpreted it in a serious manner.
He said serious read, so I took it seriously. I find his reasoning lackluster.
There was very little questioning of you and/or follow-up from him.

The suspicion's either a Mac-like reaction test or just a shitpost as I don't think it's sincere in the slightest.
Well see the thing is it's a reaction test but something tells me PSV is actually gonna get tunneled by Sean now.
*Checks to do list*

Make breakfast

Work out

Play guitar

Write final exams

tunnel PSV

*puts to do list away*

Wow, how did you know?
We have a history you and I. I have figured it out.

Also because I've been side eyeing PSVs reaction so I assume you would be... but worse.
FTR, it was a joke. What did you find sus about PSV's reaction?

I am making a concerted effort to not "tunnel" people when I can, but even if I wasn't, I thought PSV's reaction was fine.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 9:04 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:47 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:45 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:43 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 1:41 pm fwiw i feel like giving reads rn would be a LEAK due to 2 non posters

but i’ll add a wolfy remark of i kinda like where things are headed and have noticed nothing that i was going “huh wat” in my head to

a bit of a thing i spotted was alice stating a rand v read on seanzie and then making a post to spf saying she shouldn’t give him an easy villa pass, gth it feels bad but if i’m thinking about it, i don’t see what point it accomplishes as a wolf. might be a villagery progression
What do you mean by you like where things are headed?
I don’t disagree with any reads stated etc is what i meant, tho i didn’t read with too much caution

i’m a very lazy d1 player. and this isn’t even d1 yet tbh
I mean, Seanzie is TRing me and Neon is scumreading me so I'm not sure how you agree with both.
I rarely give townreads. You're fine, that's all I'll give.

seanzie does shift over to townreading psv after he opened up by scumreading her, and he drops his suspicions of her rather quickly/abruptly

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 11:32 am
Lemonfairy wrote: ↑Mon May 08, 2023 10:59 am @falcon45ca

hi falcon what are your reads right now?
could you post a list or something?

I'm TR Neon & SR Kate

PSV actually giving links to their Maf games is pretty towny IMO, tho I've not yet compared their games.

After that I'll have to do some digging, I've barely read anything

and even more interestingly, falcon’s treatment of PSV is pretty similar to seanzie’s treatment of her. in both cases, both of them started off by pushing on PSV for a while and calling her wolfy, and then both shifted to her being town

that's ....hm. again, let me finish this analysis before i give my thoughts on that

let’s take a look at psv’s progression on seanzie/falcon:

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 6:12 pm I think of the people who have interacted with me, I feel best about Seanzie and Neon, since both are sticking to their guns in spite of thread flow-- Seanzie in saying my responses felt okay when others said they didn't, Neon saying they didn't feel okay when others said they had.

psv does start off by townreading seanzie, though she wasn’t really around while he was being wagoned and generally did not have the chance to react to him being in danger. there's not much of a progression to speak of here

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:12 pm I think I feel fine about falcon, Neon, and Seanzie thus far.

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:19 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:17 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 03, 2023 7:12 pm I think I feel fine about falcon, Neon, and Seanzie thus far.
why falcon?
He seems chill in a town way.

so, psv also starts off d1 by townreading falcon (in tandem w/seanzie). she does acknowledge there are concerns about falcon that she disagrees with, but that there “isn’t enough substance” to defend that read:

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 6:39 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 6:31 pm i've read sean's iso, and psv is not clear at all
What's your fixation with trying to push me, ted? There are legitimate concerns with sig/six, falcon (still disagree but not enough substance to really fight it) and Dennis, yet you insist on pooping and then throwing it at me.

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 6:50 pm
Kate wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 6:20 pm
Neon wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 11:29 am Quiet barely active doesn't give a fuck falcon is usually town ime he just wolfed and actually tried I think falcon is very much the type of player who cares about not letting his pack down so he's more active when scum.

Also also he just pocketed me as wolf and I'm not sure he's try to do literally the exact same thing two games in a row. That's uh less likely to be true though.
I'd ask you to reconsider your thoughts here.
Town falcon is more aggressive and solvy. Wolf falcon become aggressive later game and starts making fake arguments. Read his iso, it won't take long. There is absolutely nothing about psv that would make him have such a firm read. He's doing the same thing seanzie did day 1 with me as the target.

And he's definitely pocketing you.
See, what happened last game was falcon was very aggressive very early with Zenge, Zenge snapped back, and falcon was mafia. Falcon was super aggressive then essentially dropped off the map.
I guess the point being I saw so much disagreement about falcon and his meta last game, and this point doesn't align with what I saw either, that I'm just going to ignore him and hope the wolves are elsewhere tbh

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 10:05 pm
Kate wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 10:00 pm I feel like @MacDougall ... is anybody reading my posts? Lol
I'm reading, but I don't agree on falcon so I don't want to vote there. Sorry.

when falcon becomes a real wagon on d2, PSV is pretty blunt/adamant about the fact that she isn’t willing to vote for falcon and that she just doesn't want him to die

similarly to neon, PSV kind of "gives up" here too, in the sense that she seems adamant that falcon is town but she doesn't really do anything to sway the momentum or save falcon from dying

so....okay. i want to make some observations here:

psv

-it stands out to me that seanzie drops his suspicions of PSV very, very quickly, and made several posts throughout d1 that feel fairly cloying toward her/intended to get on her good side

if i put myself in seanzie’s shoes, and my objective is: “Distance From PSV”, his treatment of her doesn't make a lot of sense. why start off by pushing on your partner and making a big show out of scumreading them, only to shift to townreading them and talking about how they're towny/not scummy anymore? this would diminish any real "distancing" that seanzie had accomplished by pushing PSV at the beginning of the day, and it reads a bit more like a wolf shifting their positioning in an attempt to pocket PSV

-something that also stands out to me is that seanzie and falcon both had the progression of pushing on PSV at the beginning of the game, but then deciding that she’s town and defending her. in both cases, seanzie and falcon’s progressions on PSV are a bit “dynamic” and shift fairly abruptly. my general sense is that W/W progressions tend to be a bit more "clean" and a bit more carefully planned out, and i think the abrupt shift here is a good look for PSV

-on a similar note, i don’t really think that PSV would be bold enough to townread both of her partners in the way she did toward the beginning of d1, and the rest of her play does not really feel like it comes from someone who is trying to powerwolf

-...following that thought further, there is a lack of syncronity in the way that falcon/seanzie/PSV treated each other that makes me struggle to see them as a team as well. it would be weird for seanzie and falcon to come into the game distancing/bussing PSV, but then PSV deciding to townread both of them at the same time. i don't see much of a coherent strategy there

so, i don’t really think it’s PSV - if i’m wrong on that then well, whatever, i guess i just misread the spew badly and that’s on me

neon:

-i do still feel, at a base level, like the way that falcon treated neon throughout d1/d2 reads a bit more like a wolf pocketing a villager than a wolf talking to another wolf, and this is still the strongest point i have in favor of neon being town in general

-i also still find neon's overall progression on falcon hard to buy as a W/W progression. if i put myself in neon's shoes and my partner seanzie just died and my other partner falcon is in danger of dying, i could see her trying to defend him/divert the wagon elsewhere, but i guess what stands out to me is how ...defeated? she was about falcon in general. she was adamant about him being town but did not really meaningfully defend him or try to pull the momentum elsewhere. it is, indeed, a bizarre scum strategy if neon is mafia

-smaller point, but i kind of like how neon has treated my slot in general - if she was intending to pocket me then idk if she would randomly drop lines about how i might be mafia, or say she would instavote me in f3 - her paranoia feels kind of authentic/real to me

-neon’s vote on seanzie on d1 is positioned like a bus vote. this is something to keep in mind, i suppose, but i won't weigh this point too heavily, since the quick formation of the seanzie wagon on d1 means that it could have been pure

so....if i squint really hard and try to envision a world where neon is mafia, it's possible, but it doesn't seem particularly likely to me. i think that neon is a great scum player, and i know she has fooled me before, but i just fail to see a coherent scum strategy in a lot of the stuff that she did

sig:

-i like that sig was attacking falcon on d1 and that he went out of his way to bolster momentum against him on d2. it would be weird for sig to be comfortable with hardbussing on d2 right after his other partner died, unless he was just super prepared/ready to solo endgame, but he hasn't been playing like someone who has a vested interest in doing that

-sig’s conviction on dennis has felt fairly real to me at several points, even if it ended up being wrong. not sure what the point is in locking yourself in a tunnel on one player when he would need multiple miseliminations to win the game if he's maf

-i don't see why he makes the ted kill in a world where he’s maifa

now, on the other hand….

-sig has spoken ~about~ me a lot, but has consistently stopped short of giving any real conclusion. the specific way he has danced around me potentially being mafia without actually committing to it (and prioritizing his read on dennis) does make me worry that he might be trying to set me up

-when i look at each of psv/neon/sig, i feel that i have the least reasons to townread sig overall. i also feel like from a more holistic perspective, the reasons i have to townread neon/psv are a bit stronger than i do for sig

for example, my reasoning to townread psv/neon is largely reliant on me not being able to form a coherent scum strategy out of how they played, whereas the scum strategy in sig's play is a bit more obvious (ie: push on your widely POE'd partner to get cred for endgame, and then coast for as long as possiblee)

so i mean, honestly, i do think that it might just be sig

but anyway, let's do some theorycrafting for a while. here are the possible worlds FMPOV:

WORLD A: I end up dead

in this world, i would lean on the mafia being sig, but i'm not confident enough where i would say you should sheep that

the reason i would lean sig in a world where i'm dead tonight is bcuz PSV has telegraphed that she wants to vote neon, and i can see sig just leaving PSV and neon alive together and hoping they tunnel each other into oblivion. it might be the easiest possible win from his point of view

...whereas it's a little harder to see why psv/neon would kill me as a wolf when i would probably still be pretty pushable from their point of views

World B: I am alive with sig & neon

hm...i'm not so sure about this world, just because it makes sense fmpov for either neon or sig to leave me alive with the other. if sig is a wolf, it makes sense for him to leave me alive with neon, since sig has hinted that he intends to thunderdome me in the f3 multiple times, and he would probably find it easier to convince neon to vote me than to convince PSV to vote me. neon has also said she would instavote me in a f3 (though not sure how serious this is?), and sig might be aware of that

on the other hand, me and sig have also been kind of circling around our suspicions of each other for multiple days now, and from neon's POV, it might be an easy win from her point of view to let me and sig just thunderdome/push each other

even so, i think that in terms of “overall holistic reasons to townread”, i would lean on it being sig in this world, cause i feel like my reasons to TR neon are a bit stronger than my reasons to TR sig

World C: I am alive with sig & PSV

in this world, i ...think i would lean on it being sig over PSV. this is because i have independently concluded that PSV is probably town from my analysis

i will say that this world would probably make me doubt PSV a bit more tho, cause idk why sig would leave me alive with PSV when it seems like neon has an overall higher chance of voting me overall…? it doesn't make a lot of sense for sig to leave me alive with PSV when PSV has been townreading for p much this entire game, whereas it DOES make sense from PSV's perspective to leave me and sig with each other so that we could thunderdome

so i mean, in terms of ~overall solving~, i would probably lean on it being sig in this world, but it would make me a bit paranoid of PSV cause it's hard to see why sig makes a neon kill

so i mean, being fully transparent, if i am alive with sig in any capacity tomorrow, i would probably find it difficult not to vote him. so...

World D: I am alive with neon and PSV

i think the main point in favor of neon in this world would be i’m not sure what her endgame would be? if she's a wolf she might perceives me as having a higher chance of hammering PSV than sig would, since i’ve been defending neon/calling her towny all game? but i've been townreading PSV all game too, so idk if neon would want to bank on that

if i'm doing a direct comparison btwn neon and psv, i do townlean psv a bit more, since:

A. neon’s positioning on seanzie feels more like bus positioning, in comparison to PSV
B. the spew is a bit better for PSV than for neon, cause falcon & seanzie kind of conceded that PSV was town rather awkwardly after taking heat, whereas their progressions on neon were a bit more static and easier to read as "Strategic"
c. a lot of the reasons why i was townreading neon feel a bit flimsier in this world

for example, in this world, it would be a little harder for me to maintain the towncred im giving to neon for falcon tring her throughout d2, when falcon did the SAME THING to psv, but arguably in a townier way with the way he re-evaluated her

the same thing applies to neon’s treatment of falcon - one of the main reasons why i’ve been townreading neon is specifically because the way she defended falcon throughout d2 didn’t really seem like something a wolf would do, but PSV did exactly the same, so i couldn’t give towncred for that without also giving it to PSV

…which does make me think that sig might just be mafia but yeah

okay

i will be posting my thoughts roughly 10 minutes before the deadline

if i end up dead then i would strongly consider sheeping my thoughts/taking them into serious consideration. at the very least, please do not snap-vote in that world

if i'm still alive then alright then lol

i'm just going to say that i have one very confident townread, one person i'm leaning on being wolf with a reasonable amount of confidence, and i think the game is probably easy to solve FMPOV depending on who i'm alive with

or, i'll be dead and i won't have to worry about it

i wrote a very long post outlining my worldview and who i think the mafia are in each conceivable world but i havent decided if im going to post it yet

maybe like 10 minutes before the deadline so that the mafia doesnt have time to prepare around it

idk

i find them kind of towny but shrug

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 10:18 pm Or maybe I'll vote sig. Who knows.

do u think neon's posts rn are towny?

(asking for a friend)

me @ the mafia

i hope i die though tbh

i think that a world where i am alive will be very telling regardless of who is alive with me

i think i will most likely be safe from the nightkill except for a world where exactly sig is mafia and he wants to pit neon and psv against each other

maybe?

this conversation made me realize who i think the final mafia is

mafia better kill me so that i don't say

uwu

Neon wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 9:38 pm Alternatively psv is actually just mafia but.

Thing of it is that only push me when I vote them lol

do u think psv is town?

@potentialsheltervet - in a world where i end up dead tonight, please don't snapvote neon. ideally, please don't snapvote at all

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 5:08 pm Strongly prefer the ability to hammer.
Honestly at this point discussion has been pretty stagnant. No offense but it feels like me and SPF are the only ones still playing. I'd like to shorten the misery where possible.

if sig is mafia then i think there's a decent chance you end up dying

saying this to possibly wifom him into leaving you alive if he is mafia

pretty demotivating if im being honest

possibly confirmation biased thinking but yeah

i hope that dennis not showing up for this EOD is a sign that he's mafia

i was antsy during that hour ii was gone thinking that maybe people had come back and started posting again

but nope

.

@Dennis @sig @Neon

come play

i will be in a meeting for the next hour but will try to be present for the rest of the day after that

i just don't see why sig ever makes the ted kill in a world where he's mafia, nor do i have a particular problem with any of his posts beyond the general paranoia about him not posting enough

and i really dont think that it makes sense for it to be neon and that she just wouldn't approach falcon in the way she did if she was W/W with him

and i dont think falcon/seanzie would treat PSV in the way they did if she was mafia either, and i like that she has been one of the only people in the game still actively trying to solve and create a consensus when the rest of the thread has been AWOL

i could make an argument for dennis being town too but right now it feels weaker than all of my other arguments, and he technically does "fit" as someone who may have positioned himself to bus on d1, and it is true that he didn't play any particular role in the momentum against either falcon or seanzie, and his solving today is a bit all over the place and reads like he's trying to position himself for multiple miseliminations on me/sig

so yeah

[VOTE: dennis] aubergine

do we know what time the poll closes?

potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 3:17 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 3:16 pm
potentialsheltervet wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 2:48 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed May 17, 2023 12:20 pm i guess fmpov the question is just whether i'm willing to tie the vote and try to get sig eliminated instead

and i really need sig to come back and talk with me before i make that decision
I thought you were firm on TRing sig?
well i think that the nightkill specifically might point away from sig, even though coming into today, i had the mindset that he might just be mafia

i also don't think that it's you and i don't think that it's neon and i feel reasonably good about that even after re-reading both of your ISOs today

i was leaning dennis for a while even though i felt like i had good reasons to townread him, but i think it's probably just within sig and dennis and that it's important we get it right today
Okay, I just don't get why you wouldn't vote Dennis then if you're pretty confident it isn't Sig after reading his ISO.

well at the time, dennis was in the lead, and sig was one vote behind

so it was just a question of whether i was willing to let dennis die or if i felt confident enough about sig to tie the vote and try to get him killed instead

but yeah, as of right now, i do think that it might just be dennis

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