The Syndicate

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:36 pm @spf Biden 2024 yay/may?

communism 2025

Dolby wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:34 pm SPF is the triad pure?

Also do you have a moment to look at falcon?

i feel very strongly that in a world where one of sloonei/jagged is a wolf, the other one would be a wolf as well. they are aligned with each other. i think that they are both villagers. i would only consider chopping either of them in a world where both of them are unflipped in LYLO and it is clear that the game has gone in the wrong direction

i feel almost obligated to share more insightful legacy thoughts because of y'all keeping the thread open for me, but my thoughts have not developed particularly far beyond the legacy that i outed last night

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:50 pm 1-2 wolves in dolby/g-man, 0-1 wolves in illario/limecoke, 1-2 wolves in falcon/SoA/TSP

the above solve is what i envision the solve in this game would be in an ideal world where there are no "deep wolves", and if i had another day to solve, i would prioritize sorting out the dizzy/johanna/marmot slots to ensure that they did not get out of the POE unjustly

im gay

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:30 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:29 pm Spf, can you look over Lime’s latest posts? Lime still likely mafia?

@staypositivefriend

i suspect that his inability to expand the scope of his reads beyond that ones that he has already outed are indicative of him being in a somewhat anti-spew attitude. i see glimpses of lime coke being a villager in some of his posts but i would still estimate that he is more likely a wolf than not

i would feel 100% certain about this read in either direction if i had another dayphase to read him, so if i was going to be alive tomorrow, i would recommend keeping him around for another day. since i will not be alive tomorrow, i think it's fine for him to be exe'd today

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:32 pm This is all your fault, spf! =p

Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!

lmfaoooo what on earth happened to this thread while i was gone

sorry for not being here sooner - i should have mentioned that i wouldn't have much time at all to post/give my thoughts today, but i did want to check back in right before the deadline

i'm not catching up with the thread, but can someone please tell me if there are any immediate developments i should know about?

currently not able to be here, but marmot should not be chopped today

i am currently leaning on lime coke being mafia. i do not feel confident about that. i will see how i feel when i get some sleep - i would appreciate it if no one hammered early

ilario wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:34 am If spf wasn’t clear I’d probably be fossing her rn because I hate how she’s set up a false dichotomy between me and lc

i am mafia

(also i think there is a possibility that you/lc are both villagers. i just got the sense that your dynamic on d1 was not pure, and it looks like i may have been right about that)

ilario wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:30 am If I had to gth pick who is more likely wolf in the two I’d probably say jjj, but I keep going back and forth in the two

fwiw i am highly doubtful that one of them would be a wolf in this game without the other also being a wolf. i think that they are aligned, much like macdougall/kane were aligned in that recent game on MU if u remember what i mean. i also think theyre both town because i find both of them independently villagery and because nobody has expressed concerns about either of them that resonate with me

ilario wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:22 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:54 am @ilario -

when you get the chance, could you please discuss your read on lime coke in more detail? it is true that you briefly engaged with lime coke about your concerns, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 18#p855818), accepted lime coke's explanation, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 33#p855833), and then brought up the exact same concern a dayphase later. is there anything else about lime coke that you find especially concerning?

the question here, i think, is whether or not it's wolfy for ilario to wolfread lime coke with that specific reasoning. given that:

A. illario had a pretty gradual build-up of suspicion of lime coke throughout his ISO

B. illario made other posts that implied his issues with lime coke extended beyond: "i don't like he outed his read on me" (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 727#p85572)

C. illario tends to read other players based on how they are reading him

i do not think that his read on lime coke is inherently wolfy. it fits with whatever conception i have of what an "illario wolfread" looks like. i find it believable that the read could come from ilario as a villager, but it would help me a lot if he was more specific about his concerns

A) the sus wasn’t build up. It was there from the beginning, I just didn’t want to express it immediately because I hate it when people gang up on lc regardless of his alignment. I wanted him to settle into the game first to avoid any potential toxicity.

B) my other reasons are not anything unique to what’s already been said. I didn’t like when he mentioned there’s slots scummier than himself as a way to defend himself, but this has already been mentioned. And his initial tr on sloonei also felt awkward to me.

I’m similar to you in that I haven’t seen that eureka moment where lcs towniness hits me, and that usually happens fairly early when he’s town

mm okay, who would u say ur top suspicion is right now outside of lime coke?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:15 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:09 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:07 am “Oh. My premise against ilario was actually false, after I reviewed every page.

Uh. ilario still mafia.”

JJJ is struggling with this one.

mind talking about that a little more? what re-ignited your concern about illario?

I’m referring to Lime Coke rather than to ilario. If I understand the dialogue, you showed him that a premise on which he was doubting ilario was untrue, and it apparently was irrelevant and the doubts remained. I don’t get it on Lime’s part.

ah yes, i entirely misread your post lol

i've gotta go cook, but all i wanna do right now is refresh the thread, lol. it sucks that i don't have more time because i think this game is very solvable with the right dialogue

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:07 am “Oh. My premise against ilario was actually false, after I reviewed every page.

Uh. ilario still mafia.”

JJJ is struggling with this one.

mind talking about that a little more? what re-ignited your concern about illario?

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:58 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:56 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:54 am @ilario -

when you get the chance, could you please discuss your read on lime coke in more detail? it is true that you briefly engaged with lime coke about your concerns, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 18#p855818), accepted lime coke's explanation, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 33#p855833), and then brought up the exact same concern a dayphase later. is there anything else about lime coke that you find especially concerning?

the question here, i think, is whether or not it's wolfy for ilario to wolfread lime coke with that specific reasoning. given that:

A. illario had a pretty gradual build-up of suspicion of lime coke throughout his ISO

B. illario made other posts that implied his issues with lime coke extended beyond: "i don't like he outed his read on me" (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 727#p85572)

C. illario tends to read other players based on how they are reading him

i do not think that his read on lime coke is inherently wolfy. it fits with whatever conception i have of what an "illario wolfread" looks like. i find it believable that the read could come from ilario as a villager, but it would help me a lot if he was more specific about his concerns

and of course, i would love to hear lime coke explain why he thinks that ilario would definitely not have that read on him as a villager. you didn't seem to take an inherent issue with ilario's reasoning for being suspicious of you on d1, so why is it wolf-indicative for you now?

Because I thought he was townreading me Day 1.

perhaps i'm just being nitpicky, but:

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:35 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:32 am

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:31 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:28 am @Lime Coke -

do you mind pointing me to where illario townread you on d1? i just looked through his progression on you, and he was pretty consistent about finding you wolfy throughout the day. i think there's a pretty natural build-up of illario being suspicious of you & then deciding to vote you regardless of his alignment

Fuck you're right, I just iso'd him. I thought he was townreading me Day 1 for some reason.

I still don't understand his read on me though.

does it impact your overall read on illario?

Bleh, I'm still not a fan? I doubt he'd misunderstand me being cautious of him being a good wolf and me saying it's gambling to townread him early? Even he kinda knows this?

You would as well.

the framing of your read on ilario in this post implies that you are suspicious of illario because of the specific reasoning that he is using to be suspicious of you. but illario used that specific reasoning to voice suspicions of you on d1, and you did not seem to take any issue or concern with it

i know that you thought that he townread you on d1, but it does raise some red flags that you are suddenly acting like a thought by illario that was posted an entire dayphase ago is inherently wolfy

regardless of any of that, i would find it really helpful if you talked about your read on illario in more detail. if you feel up to it, maybe even look through his ISO and point out some posts you find wolfy?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:54 am @ilario -

when you get the chance, could you please discuss your read on lime coke in more detail? it is true that you briefly engaged with lime coke about your concerns, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 18#p855818), accepted lime coke's explanation, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 33#p855833), and then brought up the exact same concern a dayphase later. is there anything else about lime coke that you find especially concerning?

the question here, i think, is whether or not it's wolfy for ilario to wolfread lime coke with that specific reasoning. given that:

A. illario had a pretty gradual build-up of suspicion of lime coke throughout his ISO

B. illario made other posts that implied his issues with lime coke extended beyond: "i don't like he outed his read on me" (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 727#p85572)

C. illario tends to read other players based on how they are reading him

i do not think that his read on lime coke is inherently wolfy. it fits with whatever conception i have of what an "illario wolfread" looks like. i find it believable that the read could come from ilario as a villager, but it would help me a lot if he was more specific about his concerns

and of course, i would love to hear lime coke explain why he thinks that ilario would definitely not have that read on him as a villager. you didn't seem to take an inherent issue with ilario's reasoning for being suspicious of you on d1, so why is it wolf-indicative for you now?

@ilario -

when you get the chance, could you please discuss your read on lime coke in more detail? it is true that you briefly engaged with lime coke about your concerns, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 18#p855818), accepted lime coke's explanation, (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 33#p855833), and then brought up the exact same concern a dayphase later. is there anything else about lime coke that you find especially concerning?

the question here, i think, is whether or not it's wolfy for ilario to wolfread lime coke with that specific reasoning. given that:

A. illario had a pretty gradual build-up of suspicion of lime coke throughout his ISO

B. illario made other posts that implied his issues with lime coke extended beyond: "i don't like he outed his read on me" (https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 727#p85572)

C. illario tends to read other players based on how they are reading him

i do not think that his read on lime coke is inherently wolfy. it fits with whatever conception i have of what an "illario wolfread" looks like. i find it believable that the read could come from ilario as a villager, but it would help me a lot if he was more specific about his concerns

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:31 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:28 am @Lime Coke -

do you mind pointing me to where illario townread you on d1? i just looked through his progression on you, and he was pretty consistent about finding you wolfy throughout the day. i think there's a pretty natural build-up of illario being suspicious of you & then deciding to vote you regardless of his alignment

Fuck you're right, I just iso'd him. I thought he was townreading me Day 1 for some reason.

I still don't understand his read on me though.

does it impact your overall read on illario?

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:27 am SPF
TSP
Axe

Dizzy
JJJ
Sloonei

SonofAnarch
Dolby

G-Man
Marmot
Illario/Falcon (T v W combo here)


@JaggedJimmyJay

This is my list.

Clears

Strong towns

Mid tier

Scum tier.

do you mind talking a little bit about why you think illario/falcon is T v W specifically? why can't they be wolves together?

also, if illario wasn't getting chopped today, who would you wanna vote next?

@Lime Coke -

do you mind pointing me to where illario townread you on d1? i just looked through his progression on you, and he was pretty consistent about finding you wolfy throughout the day. i think there's a pretty natural build-up of illario being suspicious of you & then deciding to vote you regardless of his alignment

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:33 pm @staypositivefriend

Okay, there might be one read I'm going to need to sheep you on, and that's on JJJ, because I'm afraid to put a read on this guy and screw things up. Because his posts are all there, he's very active. Like gut is saying town but I don't want to have a gut read on someone that can be very good as a wolf. I don't think I'd be able to get him accurately.

mm well, in a world where jagged is a wolf, it would have to be a world where:

A. the consensus POE is completely wonky

B. sloonei would (likely) need to be a wolf with him

C. he would need to start making more and more overtly dishonest/questionable pushes as the game goes on

as such, if we live in a world where jagged is a wolf, i don't think i would be able to catch him today off of interactions alone - it would likely be a slow burn where his wolfiness becomes more and more clear to me over time. so, in a world where things start looking really off (like, say that we get to LYLO and jagged is still alive after a string of dead villagers), then tinfoiling jagged is quite reasonable, but my current feeling is that he's just town

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:50 pm 1-2 wolves in dolby/g-man, 1 wolf in illario/limecoke, 1-2 wolves in falcon/SoA/TSP

perhaps i should amend this to be: "0-1 wolves in illario/lime coke", since we could live in a world where both are villagers

1-2 wolves in dolby/g-man, 1 wolf in illario/limecoke, 1-2 wolves in falcon/SoA/TSP

i took a quick skim at dolby's ISO, and i found myself pinged by a couple of things. here are some examples:

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 37#p856437 - i take no issue with dolby voicing his distrust of the "triad" that formed early in the game, and i think it would be a reasonable concern for a villager to have, but i do not feel that dolby's posts throughout d1 reflect the mindset of: "i am paranoid about jagged and sloonei and SPF". he mentioned being paranoid about the triad a handful of times, but his reads and pushes throughout d1 more or less aligned with the exact consensus that the 'triad' was pushing for.

speaking of the consensus, i find the positioning of when dolby started pushing on sig to feel almost strategic in nature. i am doubtful that dolby would have organically started pushing on sig in a world where sig was not already a consensus suspicion, and dolby making a post to voice his thought that sig did not "Look Good" could align with a wolf that wanted to echo the consensus and look more villagery

https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewt ... 46#p856446 i feel perhaps even a slight dissonance in the way that dolby capitulates to the idea that jagged/sloonei had a villagery mindmeld early on, since this would be an observation that dolby would have made before saying that people are "too trusting" of the triad. it isn't actually dissonant, but something about it rubs me the wrong way

dolby choosing to throw out NAA as a candidate for consideration on d1 while ~also~ leaving room open to vote sig has aged fairly poorly in light of NAA claiming fruit vendor. this is not wolfy in a vacuum, but it could fit with the idea that dolby has been playing a safe game that is focused on pushing on the village slots that are being widely misread

i do not think any of these points against dolby are smoking guns, moreso mild concerns, and i actually like some of dolby's posts. even so, i think he looks more wolfy in a holistic sense than not

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:39 pm

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:13 pm This sequence makes me want to vote NAA (and his ISO)

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:21 pm [VOTE: NotanAxehole] aubergine

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:38 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:34 pm This page has been unproductive. I am partially at fault for that. Let’s turn it around.

We seem to be circling around Marmot and sig as our primary options for today, but neither has an overwhelming case against them. Dizzy has articulated some arguments against sig, but otherwise this has mostly been a Process of Elimination in action.

If you (everyone) had to pick one more name to add to the list of candidates today, who would it be?

Which player’s stock has improved the most over the last ~6 hours or so?

NAA

I liked Dizzy and Illario but don't think either are controversial

I liked Marmot's posting to a lesser extent.

am i missing some crucial context, or is this sequence from dolby completely contradictory?

oh disregard this, i had misread the context of sloonei's initial post. this is not contradictory

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:13 pm This sequence makes me want to vote NAA (and his ISO)

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:21 pm [VOTE: NotanAxehole] aubergine

Dolby wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:38 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:34 pm This page has been unproductive. I am partially at fault for that. Let’s turn it around.

We seem to be circling around Marmot and sig as our primary options for today, but neither has an overwhelming case against them. Dizzy has articulated some arguments against sig, but otherwise this has mostly been a Process of Elimination in action.

If you (everyone) had to pick one more name to add to the list of candidates today, who would it be?

Which player’s stock has improved the most over the last ~6 hours or so?

NAA

I liked Dizzy and Illario but don't think either are controversial

I liked Marmot's posting to a lesser extent.

am i missing some crucial context, or is this sequence from dolby completely contradictory?

hey illario, what are ur current feeling about lc? u still think he's a wolf?

that post was so good that u couldnt help but say "groovy" twice. it's understandable

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:45 am i have a highly specific thought about limecoke that is looking increasingly likely to be true the longer that this game goes on

i don't know if i ever explained this, but my thought at that stage of the game was: "limecoke is a wolf that is TMI'ing sloonei as a villager in an attempt to replicate his town meta"

if we live in a world where lime coke is a wolf, i think that sloonei is spewed town

one thing to know about lime coke is that if he is a villager, you WILL know it. it might not be immediate, it might take a while, but there is always a moment where it just "clicks" that lime coke is playing from a village perspective. there have been instances in this game that resemble those moments, but i do not think that he has truly had any of those moments yet in this game

if i could see another dayphase with lime coke posting consistently i am confident that my read on him would be accurate, so it's a shame that i only have until the EOD lol

son of anarch is the player in this game that i feel the most uncertain about, which is weird because of how confident i felt he was a villager throughout d1. i think it's because he has a lot of posts that sound very authentic on a tonal level/depth of thought level, but i don't feel like he's taken any particular strides to solve the game or advance his worldview today. i am aware that this could just be a playdyle thing, but i feel like son of anarch's voice has almost gotten buried today in an avalanche of people that sound more villagery than him. i'm not really sure what to do with that

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:00 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:00 pm Out of the people IN my POE pool I would say Johanna looks the most like a civilian*.

*We’re reclaiming our word.

i was just about to say that if i were to replace a name in your pool with TSP, it would be johanna

in your list of villagers, that is

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:00 pm Out of the people IN my POE pool I would say Johanna looks the most like a civilian*.

*We’re reclaiming our word.

i was just about to say that if i were to replace a name in your pool with TSP, it would be johanna

actually i suppose it's fine to play with the assumption that TSP is a villager for now

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:45 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:39 pm i am highly encouraged by the solving that has gone on in the last few hours and it makes me feel confident that the town will be in a good position even when i'm not here. i am off work and have some free-time right now if anyone wants to discuss anything with me!

i am also keeping a close eye on lime coke's catch-up posts

I called these six players town:

Sloonei
ilario
NAA
Marmot
Dizzy
Tony

If correct then all the other stuff I did is just extra. Any immediate concerns about those six?

sloonei - no immediate concern, i think he's a villager.

illario - no immediate concern beyond paranoia - i think that his posts today have been quite villagery and the illario slot would only be a concern to me in a world where A. lime coke is a villager and B. the POE starts looking a little tighter than anticipated

NAA - no immediate concerns, i'm leaning on NAA being a villager for the fluidity of his posts alone

marmot - no immediate concerns, marmot has probably become one of my strongest townreads below you and sloonei

dizzy - i have some mild concern about dizzy, in the sense that my townread on dizzy is almost entirely based on a micro-interaction that he had with me on d1 (and with me generally thinking that his posts have been villagery). thinking about it more, dizzy's specific dynamic with illario and the fact that dizzy is pushing on a POE that i think is ~primarily~ headed in the right direction are saving graces for him as well. i suppose my concern about dizzy is that a lot of my reasoning to townread boils down to stuff i believe that he would be capable of faking as a wolf as well. i don't really believe in this read in my heart as i'm typing it out - dizzy is still more likely town than not

tony - mild concern but i think it's best to leave this untouched for now. i would not have him in my townlist, personally

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:43 pm this might be out of pocket for me to say as someone with little experience with marmot, but i have been getting the impression (in the last few pages especially) that marmot is outside of his wolfrange. am i right to feel that way?

i suppose it's less important whether or not marmot is out of his wolfrange and more important that i have found marmot's posts today consistently thoughtful and solvy

which i do

this might be out of pocket for me to say as someone with little experience with marmot, but i have been getting the impression (in the last few pages especially) that marmot is outside of his wolfrange. am i right to feel that way?

i am highly encouraged by the solving that has gone on in the last few hours and it makes me feel confident that the town will be in a good position even when i'm not here. i am off work and have some free-time right now if anyone wants to discuss anything with me!

i am also keeping a close eye on lime coke's catch-up posts

also, i am not particularly interested in "leading" the chop today. it was pretty common when i played chat mafia for the mechanically confirmed players to "lead", and while i find that beneficial in some ways, you lose a lot of the benefit of wagnomics/spew analysis/real-time scumhunting when one player has arbitrarily decided the chop for the rest of the players

i would ask people to take my reads into serious consideration, but it is not my priority to have people sheep what i'm saying

some assorted thoughts as i try to make sense of this game:

-i think it's safe to assume that jagged and sloonei are aligned with each other. yes, there could exist a theoretical world where one of jagged/sloonei is a wolf that is fooling the other, but in terms of sheer probability, i believe the dynamic that exists between jagged and sloonei in this game is an aligned dynamic

-on that note, i still believe that their dynamic is a town one. while it's pretty easy to tinfoil players like jagged/sloonei in scenarios like these, i do not see any concrete reasons to be suspicious of them beyond: "they played a huge role in the thread yesterday, and a villager got chopped". this is not a cause for concern by itself, and i otherwise take no issue with jagged/sloonei's posting today. sloonei's play is far more vibrant, expressive, and pointed than the brief wolfgame i played with him a while back (i know this is not a perfect point of comparison), and jagged generally has enough takes that feel distinctly townsided that i do not believe he's trying to pull the game into a nefarious direction

if anyone here has any specific concerns about jagged/sloonei that they'd like to express before the day ends, i think it would be beneficial for the entire thread

-solving the game beyond that point becomes immediately more difficult. i would like to emphasize that in a world where the dynamic of illario/lime coke contains a wolf, it likely contains one wolf at most. their dynamic has raised some red flags in my mind as being an "unpure" dynamic, but i do not believe the two of them fit particularly well as partners. i am usually quite good at reading lime coke, and when i had the opportunity to interact with him toward the end of yesterday, i felt that he was most likely a villager. the lack of interactions i've had with him today + my own concern about his dynamic with illario have made me doubt myself a little bit, so it's a priority of mine to interact with lime coke before the day ends so that i can out a solid legacy read on him. for all of the concern that i'm expressing about the illario/lime coke dynamic, i don't actually find either of those players explicitly wolfy - i do not consider illario to be a shining beacon of villageryness, but i quite like that he has been tinfoiling the players with a stronger presence today, and it aligns quite well with how he tends to approach these situations as a villager

i don't know what johanna's wolf-range is like, but i have been village reading the majority of her posts today. there is a vagueness to some of johanna's reads that makes her an easy tinfoil target in my eyes, but what's notable to me is that a lot of johanna's posts are accusatory in a way that wolves that are trying to integrate themselves in the game typically are not. johanna throws out a lot of suspicion and a lot of side-eyeing in a scenario where i suspect one of her bigger concerns would be establishing a good rapport with the rest of the game/collecting townreads. although i could nitpick some of her posts, i get the impression from her ISO that she is actively invested in the process of solving the game, and that makes me lean on her being a villager. not a super strong read, but it's where my brain is currently at

i have similar feelings about notanaxehole - i don't know what his ranges are like as either alignment and i find his playstyle fairly difficult to parse, but the notable thing to me about NAA is the fluidity in the reads that he has been outing. he has shifted stances (his progression on sloonei is particularly notable to me here) in a way that does not feel married to a specific agenda/narrative, and i think his reads have gotten more and more townsided as the game has gone on. i would keep an eye on his slot depending on the direction this game goes on, but i do not consider him to be an immediate concern

i have some thoughts about TSP that i am unsure if i should express. i think it is impossible to know his alignment at this stage in the game

i can't say that my reads are super developed beyond that stage - i have not been able to follow/think about the game today as closely as i would have liked to. i get the impression that this is a game that will be solved through flips above all else, and the reality is that a wolf-flip in this game is going to break the entire game open. as such, our number one priority should be on chopping a wolf, regardless of how deep or non-deep they are

if i can indulge in a moment of selfishness, my current feeling is that my solve in this post is still more or less correct:

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:03 am jaggedjimmyjay
sloonei
dyslexicon
sonofanarch
illario
lime coke
notanaxehole
dolby
johanna
g-man
falcon
TSP
marmot
sig

i do not think this is The Solve, and looking at this list more, i actually suspect i'm misreading someone in my list of towns (perhaps i should be taking a closer look at my read on Son Of Anarch - i wrote him off as town almost immediately when i have no idea what his range is like or how competent of a wolf he is), but i think it's a good enough place to start. current feeling is that there's a wolf or two in the bottom 4 names and then another wolf or two in the zero posters, and then one final wolf in the upper tier. that might an overtly convoluted way to explain my reads, but it's just how i'm looking at the game rn

AMA

i am doubtful that the wolves would kill me if my solve was 100% incorrect, even though i do not think i nailed the solve spot-on. i want to particularly draw your attention to the last paragraph of that post, of which i consider to be significantly more important than the order of the list itself. i think that the general assessment of: "there is a wolf or two in the bottom names, a wolf or two in the (then) 0-posting slots, and then one wolf buried higher among the townreads" is likely to be correct. i would change the order of that list slightly if i was to re-write that post now.

my immediate feeling is that the pool of g-man/falcon/TSP contains at least one wolf, but i don't have any strong reasoning to substantiate that

my capacity will unfortunately be fairly limited today. the best time for me to read/post thoughts will likely be tomorrow evening. if there are any specific opinions/takes that you'd like to hear from me before my tragic death, feel free to @ me and i'll make it a priority

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:06 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:56 pm interesting stuff. i have some immediate thoughts about why i may have been poisoned, but i'm going to keep them to myself for now. it's kind of nice that i get to spend these 48 hours hunting with no tinfoil/suspicion against me whatsoever, minus the dying at the end of the day part :P

What's your current perspective/confidence level regarding ilario?

i will need to re-read illario before i answer that, but i would like to make it known that i was theorizing quite strongly overnight that there was a wolf between lime coke/illario. i have never seen lime coke and illario fail to find each other on d1 when they are villagers before, and illario remaining consistently suspicious of lime coke throughout the day as LC continued to townread him made me think that the dynamic would not be pure. i also estimate that the Epicmafians might be more likely to kill me than the other players here, but that is faulty reasoning, so i'm not weighing it too heavily

interesting stuff. i have some immediate thoughts about why i may have been poisoned, but i'm going to keep them to myself for now. it's kind of nice that i get to spend these 48 hours hunting with no tinfoil/suspicion against me whatsoever, minus the dying at the end of the day part :P

im gay

ilario wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:29 pm How sure are you on sig?

not very - roughly 70-80%. his posts could reasonably come from a villager, but i find him more wolfy than just about every other player that's posted and i think he has a mild amount of scum equity. how about you?

sig should probably go over today, but i was curious how a competing falcon wagon would impact the dynamic of the thread. it looks like the answer is: "not at all"

Son of Anarch wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:25 pm A new triad emerges. Me, Dizzy, and Stayposi. I dub us the falcon killers

i like the sound of that. it rolls off the tongue