The Syndicate

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:18 am I didn't have any reason to scumread Falcon or townread Porscha. I made that shit up for fun. Nutella called bullshit on me thinking Porscha was an obvious townie and she was right. Fair play, @nutella

wow what an x-post

sup, how’s that troll life treating ya

just gonna say, jack is very likely an NPC and i’m not convinced he isn’t intentionally trolling so i’d sincerely suggest ignoring any reads he makes today

hope he’ll actually get engaged today

i’d really like his reads

oh, also we have clear alive today

illario claimed PR and hasn’t been cc’d, so we shouldn’t “sleep” regardless of anything else

you don’t sleep when there’s a clear alive, you use the clear’s vote to help lunch a wolf

cya

anyway, let’s kill neon

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:43 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?
I'm not a player, I've hardly read the game, I don't actually have much thought as to who's wolfy - I'm just here to debate game theory

your game theory ignores the context of the game that you haven’t read

luckily i have

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:38 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:35 pm here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong
Choosing to go for someone that's not Schia today is choosing to hunt for wolves in a very cloudy sea of wolves and NPCs that make good solving much more difficult.

Mathematically, you only come out ahead if you can hit a wolf today with a higher probability than hitting a wolf on day 8 post-purge.

I am highly, highly skeptical that you + Wilgy + Michelle all being alive is enough to offset the other handicaps that are present to solving today. And it even runs counter to conventional FM wisdom which states that in general solving gets easier as time goes on as the player pool narrows.
There's not even any guarantee that you + Wilgy + Michelle are all town!

the reason i don’t care about the purge narrowing the pool is because i think it’s fairly obvious what almost the entire player list is and has been for a while

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:33 pm By all means, people should still be solving today, and it shouldn't just devolve into an auto-day.

But even if the day where Schia gets chopped is doomed to be an autopilot day, wouldn't it be better that wasted day were before the purge, rather than after it when there's sudden clarity?

Like it just feels like a huge waste to make Day 8 be the turbo Schia day when you have the chance to get that wasted day out of the way without messing up your parity!

i don’t think the bolded matters because i think it’s clear who almost every player is and the only “clarity” we will get post-purge is which of rico/schia is the wolf that’s been larping as an NPC

@ilario can you iso dz and tell me what you think? it’s not long

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:42 pm @Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

and is there anyone you think isn’t a wolf with schia?

@Lumi @Inawordyes who do you think is most likely to be a wolf besides schia?

here is my position, just so it’s crystal clear

1) i think wilgy and michelle are likely to be villagers who have been solving well

2) i’d like myself and whichever of wilgy/michelle are villagers to be alive to help lunch at least one of the wolves who aren’t min posting because town is behind enough that we need all the help we can get to find and kill the tougher wolves

3) schia could absolutely be a wolf! and in fact, i think that’s probably the case all things considered, but if they are a wolf they’re a free pelt that we can get any day regardless of who is alive. the only upside to lunching them today as opposed to next day would be if we think their wolf flip would clear others, which i’m open to arguments for.

4) if schia is an NPC, there’s no upside to lunching them over waiting for them to be purged and we can always simply sleep as normal in mylo if we want

tell me which of these things is wrong

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:17 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:15 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm

Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia
no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow
Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?
i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers
You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?
i didn’t say it had to be neon? but i do think she’s pretty likely to be a wolf
Who do you want to vote out then Hally? Where’s your head at atm?

read my posts and you’ll find out

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:16 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:13 pm
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside
We’re going to lose an active villager in the night no matter who gets chopped, I know it’s probably not your intention but the way that’s worded it sounds like you want to chop someone who could end up also being an active villager and have two die just so that it’s someone other than Schia

Schia’s death doesn’t change who the mafia decide to NK, unless we chop that player ourselves in our terribadness
i want to kill a wolf today who is actually a threat to us BEFORE wolves have a chance to kill one of me/michelle/wilgy because i think this town needs all the help it can get to find the more active wolves and i don’t trust we’ll be able to do it if we lose another one of our most active solvers
As stated yesterday

Just because Schia isn’t posting ITT doesn’t automatically mean that they’re somehow not the loudest voice in mafia chat if they are a wolf. Any wolf is a threat to us, and basically agreeing that you think Schia is a wolf but pushing back on voting them out to instead vote someone who’s more prominent in the thread is baffling at best, anti-townie at mid, and actively scummy at worst

i’ll bet you 1 billion dollars that schia is not masterminding in wolf chat

that’s just silly

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm Chopping town~Neon here is nearly game losing!

i don’t see how it matters either way, regardless wolves need two mislunches

if we mislunch v!neon after we kill w!schia it’s the same difference as mislunching neon before we kill schia

the order is irrelevant unless you think neon (or whoever else we kill) would be cleared by a schia wolf flip

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:12 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though
Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia
no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow
Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?
i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers
You're acting like Neon is a flipped wolf, why do you scumread Neon so much?

i didn’t say it had to be neon? but i do think she’s pretty likely to be a wolf

Inawordyes wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:11 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:09 pm if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside
We’re going to lose an active villager in the night no matter who gets chopped, I know it’s probably not your intention but the way that’s worded it sounds like you want to chop someone who could end up also being an active villager and have two die just so that it’s someone other than Schia

Schia’s death doesn’t change who the mafia decide to NK, unless we chop that player ourselves in our terribadness

i want to kill a wolf today who is actually a threat to us BEFORE wolves have a chance to kill one of me/michelle/wilgy because i think this town needs all the help it can get to find the more active wolves and i don’t trust we’ll be able to do it if we lose another one of our most active solvers

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:07 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:03 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though
Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia
no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow
Do you think that if the game is 5v3 that town should sleep or should town just try to find a wolf among the 8 players?

i think that in this particular game town needs all the help we can get and we shouldn’t let wolves kill off another villager regardless of the numbers

if you go for schia today and they end up flipping NPC, we lose an active villager in the night and have one less villager actively solving in the thread when we have to find the wolves who are posting, and we desperately need as many active villagers itt as we can possibly get

and if you go schia and they’re a wolf, it gives no info and just kills a wolf who would be outed tomorrow anyway

zero upside

we’re not killing schia today, just turbo them tomorrow if they’re still alive

i want as many active villagers alive to find and kill the wolves who are actual threats

schia will resolved by the purge, they’re not a threat

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:53 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine
if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though
Town is on wrong parity right now, so they need a sleep anyway, it is absolutely the right play to use a "sleep" vote on an NPC that also has significant wolf equity in Shia

no, we should go for a player in the PoE and leave schia/rico to get sorted by the purge

if we go schia today wolves will just kill one of me/michelle/wilgy tonight and there will be one less active villager alive to help kill the more active wolves

there’s no upside to it when we can just turbo whichever of schia/rico is still alive tomorrow

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:51 pm Ya, not much more info to be gained

I think the useful info is:

These players are basically mech confirmed players (there are some scenarios in which they're not, but those are really weird scenarios, so...)
Michelle
Wilgy
Neon
Porscah

The list of NPCs:
LumI
Manny
One or more of DZ / pyxxy
Exactly one of Jack/Ilario

At MOST a single NPC on this list:
Hally
Schia
Ricochet
Nook
IAWY

I think its time to murderize schia

yeah, one of schia/rico is very likely a wolf

also i’m confirmed player, seanzie said he checked me

also, while we’re on that subject, if illario actually never used his deleter that’s really ??? too

dunno why he claimed it’s protown to holster it, it’s definitely not lol

i’m not sure why he didn’t list all his checks since he was open claiming

seems like questionable PR play

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:31 pm Btw Seanzie wanted to kill Schia, Seanzie was scout, Seanzie might have known Schia was a player. We're on incorrect parity at 7v3 so I think we kill Schia here as a sort of wolf-equity sleep vote.

[VOTE: Schiavetto] aubergine

if seanzie had a player check on schia he would have claimed it 100%

also if you read his posts, i think it’s pretty clear he didn’t check schia

i think he checked neon and illario as players though

in all these posts i’m assuming illario is the deleter as claimed, which makes jack an NPC always

neon/dz/+1?

in this world i think the last would be whoever the player in lumi/rico/schia/pyxxy/manny is

don’t really think nanook or porscha are w/w with neon but i’d have to double check

i guess it could be iawy too but i dunno, he’s felt more like a villager to me

Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:13 pm I'm pretty obviously an NPC

This is your last day with me

alright, if this is true then someone in

Manny
pyxxy
Ricochet
Svhiavetto

has to be a player unless i messed up somewhere

pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:08 pm I'm an NPC and bad at this game so grain of salt but

Vivax on Neon w/ chosen quotes:
search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&t=24 ... =1080&ch=0
Spoiler: show

Vivax wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 5:33 pm Neon probs player, tentatively town on a quick skim. Porscha maybe NPC but likely town if PC.
Ranmilia wagon looks pure mostly.

Quite possibly a bunch of scum among nonvoters but phoneplaying so it‘ll be a slow chore to look further and it‘s killing my motivation (or WIM as you fancily call it)

Vivax wrote: ↑Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:36 pm
SilverKeith wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:06 am
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:00 am
SilverKeith wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:56 am
Lumi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:52 am
SilverKeith wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:49 am

I mean, I'm an NPC, yeah, Manny is right about that one, but what guarantee is there for me that there aren't wolves already in the masonry, huh?
If you're an NPC, then who even cares

If wolves want to join the masonry in order to protect us defenseless NPCs with their vote power, then who am I to judge as long as they renounce their PC ways and pursue the path of NPCism
Out of principle I don't negotiate with wolves as either alignment
I see you are not yet ready to pursue the true path of NPCism and give up all your worldly alignment-concerned ways.

The true path of NPCism doesn't see town or wolf, we just see people for who they are, not what they were randed.

Why shackle yourselves to that limited perception of binary alignment?
You might be right about that. I do feel like I'm not ready to be a true NPC sometimes.

The thing is... I have a friend out there. You wouldn't know them. But I'm pretty sure they are a player. And I think they'd appreciate if I kept my player equity for a bit longer, y'know?

We might not see the differences between our alignment, but they do, and I choose to respect their beliefs. And maybe that way, we can reach a better understanding between NPCs and Players.
This post is worded mighty harmlessly. Sounds like something Merkel would say tbh (or many others who don't try to stick their neck out but somehow it reminded me of her). Phrases and platitudes.
Makes SK yeetable for me today.

Neon wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:42 am What if I deleted TSP and they weren't the mafia kill?

Anyways

[VOTE: Katze] aubergine

Neon wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:04 am
iaafr wrote: ↑Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:55 am i rly cant imagine who would kill tsp at all lmao

but it doesnt obviously rule out pyxxy in my mind bc if pyxxy wolf i doubt hes shotcalling nks
It was me
Got a deleter claim here. Ender wants to yeet it. Quite bold from Ender or indirect CC from town ender, but then Neon could be NPC or scum which seems rather unlikely to me considering the boldness. Maybe Ender has other reasons? He's free to expound on them I guess.
Seanzie claims scout and follows it up with a vote on Neon, ergo Neon is player I suppose ? Or Seanzie is misleading as NPC. Would probably not touch any of those today.

Moving on...

Vivax wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 5:39 pm
santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:07 pm [VOTE: ilario] aubergine

@ilario the time to start solving is now tbh
Bad vote tbh.
Has IC vibes all over and I mentioned I had scout read on him (or DZ perhaps)
Explains the Ender wagon of yesterday sufficiently.

I‘d tentatively townpile the lot who wagoned Ender.
Neon was more roundabout about it would have to do a fresh ISO first.

tldr:
- vivax tr's neon to start the game
- somewhat believes ender's deleter claim
- ender dies to the NK after voting neon + deleter claim mess
- vivax tries to get the ender wagon townread, lo and behold Neon is also on that wagon

[VOTE: Neon] aubergine but again I'm an NPC and my vote is purely symbolic

I might unvote before EOD if people don't want NPC votes making things confusing

yeah, i thought how vivax talked about neon seemed kinda w/w

also thought some posts seemed not w/w with porscha

but i don’t put too much stock into spew reads generally

there’s a part of me that’s scared michelle or wilgy are wolves just because it’s been that kind of game

but they’ve been solving and townsiding more than everyone else combined so i’m just gonna clear them and hope it’s right

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:38 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:35 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:31 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:30 pm i’m never voting wilgy or michelle this game, gj if one of you fooled me
I need you toDay, do you have more time to talk?
yeah, though honestly i don’t really have anything to add beyond what i already said today

i’m kinda lost because there’s so many people who are probably players that have been barely playing the game and i don’t know how to sort the wolves doing that from the villagers
A vivax Iso would help, checking interactions with vivax in alive players is also useful.

The numbers are not so much in our favor unfortunately

i did skim vivax’s iso but i personally didn’t get much out of it

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:37 pm I should sleep, is 2:38 am

alright, gn

i’ll be around tomorrow if you wanna solve together

but i’m down to mason with you and wilgy and see if we can make a comeback

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:31 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:30 pm i’m never voting wilgy or michelle this game, gj if one of you fooled me
I need you toDay, do you have more time to talk?

yeah, though honestly i don’t really have anything to add beyond what i already said today

i’m kinda lost because there’s so many people who are probably players that have been barely playing the game and i don’t know how to sort the wolves doing that from the villagers

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:31 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:29 pm
Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:28 pm What changed yday the wagon from Porscha to Falcon?
porscha was here and playing the game, falcon was not
Classic Falcon

Was her play villagery or just play

she had a bunch of AtE-ish posts defending herself from seanzie that read as genuine to me in the moment but it’s possible the emotions could be genuine and come from a wolf i suppose, so not sure

i’m never voting wilgy or michelle this game, gj if one of you fooled me

Michelle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:28 pm What changed yday the wagon from Porscha to Falcon?

porscha was here and playing the game, falcon was not

Manny wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:27 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:25 pm but if they lied there’s a player who has been playing like an NPC
I dont think thats particularly wolfy tho, i havent seen much agenda-ish posts from Lumi if they are an actual player i wouldnt lock them wolf tbh.

no i’m saying if lumi lied and is actually an NPC, there’s someone who i have as NPC that’s not and that person is very likely a wolf

7 town, 3 wolf, 5 npc

players:
DeZees
DrWilg
Hally
Inawy
1 of Jack OR illario (illario claimed deleter)
Lumi
Michelle
Nanook
Neon
Porscha

NPCs:
Manny
pyxxy
Ricochet
Svhiavetto
1 of Jack OR illario

this is what i have

if lumi is NPC somebody in the NPC pile is a player

Manny wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:23 pm I think lumi is blatantly NPC.

yea i’m not voting them today in case they lied about being a player

but if they lied there’s a player who has been playing like an NPC

idk why lumi is a villager either if not an NPC

all they’ve done the entire game is post vote counts and naked vote vivax

dz has also done nothing protown except make a few posts pushing vivax

nanook has done nothing for days except minpost and tunnel nut

someone should explain why he’s a villager

Manny wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:18 pm how many npc's are left alive now?

10 players, 5 NPCs

but honestly i could vote any one of like 5 people today and be fine with it

[VOTE: neon] aubergine

don’t know if this is right, don’t really care anymore

just going with my best guess

for asking to be modkilled

Manny wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 8:14 pm also was nut mk'd or how tf did they die? lmao

modkilled

guess falcon is dying?

hope it’s a hit

DeeZees wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:56 pm
Hally wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:56 pm i honestly can’t tell if jack is trolling
Whats the mech?

there’s no mech, i’m just baffled that he’s known nut so long and thinks she’s a wolf here

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