The Syndicate

GG all!

Sloonei you the best!

Been fun y'all

You owe me a win here Alison

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:14 pm Okay I have uh read a bit. Hmm.. My thoughts didn't change much from earlier I guess. But I think next day, I am willing to look more into dizzy, if possible I would like to ask people to look into dizzy as well. He is Brigg scummy. Specifically with his sudden anti-slanking approach. Seems like the scums are cornered or the 3p hunt is bothering them? Idk just feels weird.

please get Wilgy first, even if you may very well be right about Dizzy.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:13 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 9:12 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:55 pm i'm here for the end of day if anyone wants to discuss anything, but the tim lynch seems like a p foregone conclusion and i feel like im killing time waiting to see his flip

at least you came to see me off...I appreciate it

ive enjoyed playing with u in this game even if things have to end this way

yeah, I pretty much have to produce a pelt or commit some other irrevocable act of towniness to get out of poe since I can never just town my way, and I had a REALLY bad couple days here...no hard feelings and it's been fun

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:55 pm i'm here for the end of day if anyone wants to discuss anything, but the tim lynch seems like a p foregone conclusion and i feel like im killing time waiting to see his flip

at least you came to see me off...I appreciate it

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:51 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:49 pm

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:47 pm Ayy idk... Hmm... Tim sounded a lot towny lately ngl, but they can be scum/3P easily, the latter has a bigger possibility.

Poison I can turn "sounds towny" on and off like I'm flipping a light switch. I appreciate you, but it's NAI and nothing you should fret over.

I like how straightforward you are in games regardless of alignment.

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:47 pm Ayy idk... Hmm... Tim sounded a lot towny lately ngl, but they can be scum/3P easily, the latter has a bigger possibility.

Poison I can turn "sounds towny" on and off like I'm flipping a light switch. I appreciate you, but it's NAI and nothing you should fret over.

It's been a while since I got mischopped so good experience I guess.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:44 pm

Poison Chan wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:43 pm Any tl;Dr?

We are all excited for Tim to flip town and Wilgy is scum. ^^

I for my part am not excited exactly, but yeah.

Thanks for coming to see me off.

Hi Poison

I'll be watching with interest.

To whom it may concern...yes Dizzy's track is a conflict, but Wilgy's claim is just flawed from literally every angle, and at least has some plausible wolf motives. Kill him before Dizzy EVERY time.

If you are a wolf your claim was really dumb and you deserve what you get.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:24 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:21 pmI don't think he ever said he sussed me. I am locked on him, but there's really no particular reason for him to suss me other than our conflicting results, and I'm sure he is setting up to push you for that.

Well, he can try. =p I would honestly prefer him over you today, sue me. But I'm not the voice of town this game.

Yeah, s'okay. My biggest regret is that I have no theory for resolving our conflicted actions and if you are town that's gonna challenge you.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:15 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:13 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:07 pm I just want to say that I think Wilgy is scummy as freck in these later posts. 1/10

IMO he's just outed wolf so any motions he goes through are commendable effort

The "Yeah, I hope town can do it after we're gone!" while he's supposed to suss you, I think? And also the pre shading of me, cause I'm so "null" depending on your flip is terrible terrible awful.

I don't think he ever said he sussed me. I am locked on him, but there's really no particular reason for him to suss me other than our conflicting results, and I'm sure he is setting up to push you for that.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:07 pm I just want to say that I think Wilgy is scummy as freck in these later posts. 1/10

IMO he's just outed wolf so any motions he goes through are commendable effort

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:11 pm It seems like there should be more people around this close to EOD. It makes me nervous.

It's long since decided so people are gonna shrug it

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:21 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:18 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:13 pm do you guys have any preferences for me to track?

If you can work it out, track whoever Juliet protects with her non-lethal power protection. If you actually get a track you are cleared as not 3P.

The plan calls for me to protect Radishes.

So a track on Radishes with declaring where he went before he reveals is a 3P clear. Unfortunately I think the plan might already specify where Rasishes is going, and there is zero additional benefit to tracking him since he is lock civilian already.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:17 pm @Timsup2nothin role with me here on a line.

If we were to both flip civ, who's scum and set it up this way?

If we both flip town that means that JPIC was somehow messed with in a way that allowed him to reach Tutuu but not affect her, and that either Dizzy is just lying outright or I was messed with in some way that kept me from reaching Ted at all.

Both me and JPIC being messed with, in different ways, seems pretty far fetched so even though I have no idea why he ever would lie I would be hard pressed to trust Dizzy as having told the truth there.

We know one of the two remaining wolves is a role cop, so if Me and JPIC were messed with in different ways one of us got messed with by the 3p, and that's obviously JPIC, which means I got messed with by a wolf. Ted actually admits to having targeted me which makes him suspect there, but he's pretty towny.

Overall, if you and I both flip green there is a truly dangerous level of misdirection going on.

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:13 pm do you guys have any preferences for me to track?

If you can work it out, track whoever Juliet protects with her non-lethal power protection. If you actually get a track you are cleared as not 3P.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:01 pm Actually I can see how lying about the roleblock helps you.

How's that? If I had just stuck with MD, which no one had any way to disprove, I'd be doing fine right now. How has claiming the role block helped me?

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:02 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:50 pmBecause I'm dying before I have any chance of sorting out that problem.

What is there to sort out? I'm lying or I'm not. What do you think?

Just answered that...I think it is more likely that some fuckery is afoot than that you are just pointlessly lying.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:53 pm I don't think that's what Dizzy is asking. You said you trusted Dizzy, but then later on you said that when you flip town, Dizzy will be outed to the extent that we have to execute him even if we trust him right now.

So... if you're town right now and you know it, why would you not apply a similar attitude to yourself and angle for a Dizzy exe?

Because you are irrationally set on chopping me so there would be no point.

I honestly think it is more likely that there is some fuckery afoot than that Dizzy is lying here. If he is 3P claiming a fake track on Ted gains him absolutely nothing. If he is a wolf such a claim gains him absolutely nothing. So I have to lean towards it being some sort of trick.

But since it is pretty clear that me lying about a role block on Ted is ALSO of no benefit to me as 3P or wolf and that hasn't stopped you I don't see where it is gonna do Dizzy any good when the time comes.

The only out I see for him is if Wilgy flips some mafia role that explains the outcome. Or I do, but I won't.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:45 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:41 pmAs soon as I flip green and my role card confirms I had a role block available N1 Dizzy's track on Ted is going to become extremely problematic so he's probably dying soon. Wilgy being 99% likely to be a wolf isn't going to change that, or get us any closer to the 3P.

Why is my track not problematic to you if it will become extremely problematic?

Because I'm dying before I have any chance of sorting out that problem.

BTW, I think most of these night abilities won't really differentiate the 3P. I mean it would be great if they did, but if they made a good fake claim that accounts for any movements they make at night I am not optimistic. I think you are as likely to get a false clear as you are a real one.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:34 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:03 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:58 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:40 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.

Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?

Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.

oddmerta is in my upper POE for the 3P hunt, and I expect the lower POE to be cleared really fast so you have nothing to worry about if you genuinely think oddmerta is the thread.

How really fast? I see it as through day five just offing me, Wilgy, and Dizzy. That leaves at least three or four in 'lower POE,' doesn't it?

you and wilgy are the lower POE. and we're not executing dizzy. of the people left, like LC, they will be taken care of with night abilities during the nights we're executing you and wilgy. then it's onto the upper POE. also given you seem super convinced wilgy lied I'm surprised you don't have any faith in wilgy flipping 3P anyway.

As soon as I flip green and my role card confirms I had a role block available N1 Dizzy's track on Ted is going to become extremely problematic so he's probably dying soon. Wilgy being 99% likely to be a wolf isn't going to change that, or get us any closer to the 3P.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:24 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:19 pmOk so the "no results" means those albums do not contain scum songs I'm guessing.

Hmmmm.
We have scum from Moonshaped, Hail and OK. We lack Pablo Honey, The Bends, In Rainbows and King of Limbs (as well as the two you mention here)

(Also, bets on 3p being the song "Creep"?)

LOL...no bet.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:15 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmI hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.

"winning looks like a sketchy prospect" does not seem like a natural attitude for town to have given the events of this game

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:20 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?

Hey that's a bloody smart theory.

No one has claimed vanillarizer though. I don't think there is one.

If there is one it's the 3P and they ain't gonna claim it.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:04 pm Do we know there are no vig shots left?

No we don't. I don't remember if TSP claimed one shot or Xshot vig. There may be other vigs available as well, either as additional powers that are being left out of claims or as power in the 'can't talk' claims. But I'm thinking there can't be all that many. I expected a big turnout of KP N2, but with that not happening I have sort of left the massive vigs theory behind.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:58 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:40 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.

Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?

Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.

oddmerta is in my upper POE for the 3P hunt, and I expect the lower POE to be cleared really fast so you have nothing to worry about if you genuinely think oddmerta is the thread.

How really fast? I see it as through day five just offing me, Wilgy, and Dizzy. That leaves at least three or four in 'lower POE,' doesn't it?

That reminds me Juliet...Radishes is also clear on the 3P. Poison was informed that a particular civilian song title associated with the power that Radishes had already claimed.

Another thing to note is that your power can be used to clear people as 3P if they have some verified non lethal power. You protect a particular target and have them try to use their power on them while they are being tracked. If they go to the target and their power goes through they are civilian. It's clunky, but actually could clear multiple suspects since we have two trackers.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:46 pm One of the songbois is probs 3p tbh

I think if I was 3P with a wincon focused on the song titles I would claim a power totally unrelated to the songs myself...but maybe.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:35 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:32 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm Anyone wanna yeet Samu instead of Tim?

Why tho?

Idk, he's probably scum.

The question was posed more of a "what are your thoughts?" Instead of hey let's do this.

Probably anxiety, but my brain has the tendency to go down the path of "what if we've been bamboozled and Tim is town?" The fact that Tim has not considered this option for me makes me more confident that we haven't been bamboozled, but the idea is still present.

Ummmm...I actually looked into the ways I thought I could be making a mistake regarding JPIC getting vigged and how that might affect your track. I've also been industriously speculating about how we might be getting mislead by some sort of 3P "vanillariser" with Dizzy et al. I've speculated so much about various bamboozling prospects that Alison has told me to just shut up and die. I just think that the simplest solution to the JPIC track is that you faked your claim. After some clarification from Sloonei I acknowledge that the simplest solution to the Dizzy track is that I faked mine. You and me both have to get chopped and that is a fact.

I also see that Samu is a pretty obvious chop choice after us.

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:31 pm Tim, speaking of who you think are 3P, who are your top guesses? Maybe you mentioned them earlier but I didn't see it.

Number one is Oddmerta. Has Alison convinced he's town so safe from chopping, intentionally putting zero effort towards actual solving and has avoided claiming any particularly dangerous power to avoid any chance of a night kill. So he is positioned to make it at least eight fays deep into the game, which I would guess is far enough to meet a 3P wincon. If he is NOT pursuing a 3P wincon what exactly is he doing?

Beyond that, I eliminate Tutuu, Alison, and Mac for making themselves too likely to get NKed too soon. I sort of eliminate Nanook because he attended that party at Mac's house N1 and all the bad things that happened to Mac seem to have been accounted for. But that leaves a huge suspect pool if it isn't Oddmerta.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:24 pm But targeting JPIC probs wouldn't help with that wincon lol.

This I think is a critical clue to the 3P role. Whatever else is true about the 3P, I think that they had to target JPIC on day two. His passive power being blocked has to have been a day action, and it had to have come from the 3P. So there is nothing about the 3P wincon that involves people he targets being alive long enough for him to collect them as kills. Just the targeting itself is what furthers the wincon.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:23 pm How's this for a theory.

3p role. Fake Plastic Trees. Each night you target a player. That player will lose all of their role powers. You win the game when every player left aside from you has had their roles taken away.

I agree this seems unlikely, but out of curiosity would that be a permanent loss?

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:19 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:17 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:15 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmI hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.

"winning looks like a sketchy prospect" does not seem like a natural attitude for town to have given the events of this game

Sure Allison...you've got the 3P clearly in your sights.

Except I know I'm not it, and your continuous "well towny people aren't the 3P" is giving me no confidence at all because I think the rogue would very much want to appear towny.

that argument makes no sense. should I start thinking that towny people aren't scum becuase scum want to appear towny too?

the truth is that everyone wants to appear townie. scum have a harder time doing it because they're not actually townie, only pretending to be. the same goes for 3P. differentiating between pretend-townie and actual-townie is the basis of town play.

I find it a whole lot easier to believe in a slanky wolf than a slanky 3P myself, and basically that's what the majority of your POE is...the slanky people. The people I have as most likely to be the 3P are people you have as never consider until the POE is completely eliminated, which by my count if I am correct gives the rogue something like nine game days to meet their wincon.

So, yeah, if I were handicapping this game right now I would call the wolves a long shot and town/3P more or less even odds.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:20 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:47 pm Oh. JPIC was the reason thread wasn't open on N1. And here I was hoping Cindy Kate had finally come to its senses. What if someone vanillarized JPIC or some similar action, making his whole role useless? Night was open and Tutu wasn't capped. Looks like he was out of function. Does that make things make more sense?

Hey that's a bloody smart theory.

I agree, though I would have though a day action that deactivated JPIC would have kept him from moving at all.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:17 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 8:22 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:09 am we can probably use herm's role in combination with poison chan as pseudo peeks?

force dr wilgy to claim his song and album

herm checks the album to find if there are any scum in it

poison chan checks to make sure dr wilgy says the truth

or anyone else not just dr wilgy

@MacDougall what do u think should we force someone to claim song

Yeah probably the whole POE. If the rogue kills them all then yay.

Problem being that forcing them to claim doesn't force them to tell the truth...and if the rogue just says "thanks" and goes on collecting without killing them it could be just a head start towards a very bad end.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:15 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmI hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.

"winning looks like a sketchy prospect" does not seem like a natural attitude for town to have given the events of this game

Sure Allison...you've got the 3P clearly in your sights.

Except I know I'm not it, and your continuous "well towny people aren't the 3P" is giving me no confidence at all because I think the rogue would very much want to appear towny.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:34 pm But like, has Wilgy, Dya and me all claimed some sort of Tracker ability? That's a lot of Tracking ability.

And Hally was definitely a watcher...and even if Wilgy is randomly targeting TWO watchers is a WHOLE lot of watchers. One watcher basically blew up two wolves. Two trackers, a watcher, a conditional watcher/tracker...Alison is an alignment cop, Mac has some nebulous investigative role he can't talk about...it's a ton of town PR. Heck, it's a ton of town PR WITHOUT Wilgy.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:18 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:14 pmBut you're gonna get the "well you're in the POE anyway so may as well flip you rather than think about it" treatment.

Meh. I would need more than that.

Pro tip...when they start saying it don't tell them they are just being dumb.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:03 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:59 pmPlease point out this "easy way that Wilgy is telling the truth." Brother I TRIED to find a way that Wilgy could be telling the truth. I went looking for "JPIC gets vigged AFTER Wilgy tracks but BEFORE he postcaps Tutuu because that made sense...but Sloonei shot that down. I went looking for "JPIC gets roleblocked but tracker still reads his intent." Sloonei shot that down too.

I'm at "Tutuu's lift power makes her immune to non lethal powers but it isn't mentioned in her role card" or "someone with a power like Juliet's that has not claimed it protected Tutuu." Neither of those seem nearly as simple as Wilgy is just a wolf. Like not even in the same order of magnitude.

At the same time, I know I at least tried to go to Ted's on N1. It seems unlikely that you would lie about it, so Wilgy's other result seems false as well. What went wrong with my roleblock is a hard question (for me, I understand that from out there I can just be lying) but Wilgy still looks like this part of his claim isn't true either.

So I have actually put in a whole lot of mental energy looking for ways Wilgy could be telling the truth.

Isn't JPIC's role not working consistent with both there being N2 chat and Wilgy's claim?
I kind of see the JPIC stuff and your block stuff as unrelated issues. At least that seems most likely.

What is Wilgy's motivation for claiming that JPIC targeted Tutu if it didn't happen? Couldn't he just have like ...not done it, if he knew it wasn't true? =p

I guess there might be a consistency there, though I would have thought that if JPIC were so totally blocked up that even his passive power was shut down that he wouldn't have been able to move. Seems odd that his passive power was cancelled, but he still got to go out and then his power just didn't work.

It seems especially odd to me because I tried to apply the same power to explain my roleblock on Ted apparently failing...but that would mean I would still have moved and Wilgy would have seen two not one. So from my POV the theory that gets Wilgy possibly true on JPIC makes his other result even more likely false.

My only theory for why he does it involves it being planned while JPIC was alive. Say at SoD2 JPIC the claimed alignment cop says "okay, I checked Tutuu last night and she's green." That has really no chance to get JPIC off the hook. We all knew Tutuu was green anyway. But someone who was not really suss claiming "yeah, I didn't trust JPIC so I tracked him, and hey he did go visit Tutuu" would have made it pretty sticky to hold the case on JPIC. At that point Tutuu not being post capped basically means tht JPIC is not the post capper, and Nanook becomes the catch of the day. Wilgy is gonna get asked "well, who did you track N1?" and he has this complex power with a random watcher and saw me visit Ted...that was already known so okay fake.

This is pretty squishy motivation since it doesn't put JPIC off forever and it ties Wilgy to JPIC, but sometimes buying time is worth it depending on who the last wolf in that scenario is. I dunno.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:27 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:23 pm imo we're never going to solve this by debating setup speculation in endless circles so let's just flip tim -> wilgy, see if their roles shed any light on the matter, and if we still can't figure it out we play it mountainous and just straight up ignore night weirdness and exe scummy people. it doesn't matter how twisty the rogue or whatever made the night actions if they get caught on scummy play.

Ok, but I have a pretty huge problem with why Wilgy would make up weird lies that can be checked. Or why Tim would make up a roleblock he didn't make. So what if we're all town here, what then? Should we just yeet Tim and yeet Wilgy, and what if they flip town? Are you going to spend a day just "having to" yeet me too to see if I made a totally unnecessary lie? That is kind of my problem, if I only think about the claims. And the claims are pretty much the only things I have for context right now myself.

But I mean, whoever is directing this town is doing a better job than I am, I'm just sharing a perspective here.

My concern is that even if Wilgy flips wolf as I expect you will still be next because your claim is still going to conflict with mine unless Wilgy flips something that explains how our results conflict here.

I had no reason to lie...in fact I had a perfectly good lie going when I claimed MD instead of RB and could have stuck with it. I'm gonna flip and that will put paid to any "well Tim just lied" theories. You have no reason to lie as 3P, and as W with Wilgy your claim is outright counterproductive so I just assume you aren't lying. But you're gonna get the "well you're in the POE anyway so may as well flip you rather than think about it" treatment.

So that gets town through day five with (hopefully) four wolves down but still really nothing to go on with regards to the 3P. If Wilgy somehow flips green it's even worse, but that already seems not great to me. I hate dying when winning looks like a sketchy prospect.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:49 pm

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:47 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:36 pm yeah, the attitude that wilgy had makes me trust him more. not enough to not exe him unless something happens, but enough to not make me want to exe him first. he was like "okay, np, let's thunderdome and I'll flip town and out tim", and tim was like super insistent on trying to stay alive and trying to push a specific worldview

Yeah, well, "trust me even though in this case I'm wrong...just lay down and die and leave the game in my capable hands" is not something I'm really good about. You're the one who wants me dead so bad, and I have no interest in thunderdoming you. You're wrong, and you're reasoning is absent, but you're still on the very very short list of people I think are not only not wolves but not 3P either.

the truth is that my reasoning is present and has been acknowledged by everyone else in the thread so clearly it exists and you repeatedly asserting it doesn't does not make your claim true. I also don't care whether or not you think I'm wrong - I'm taking the action that leads to the best probability of town winning, and "I know I'm town so don't execute me" is not a defense that affects that calculation.

Yeah, no kidding...maybe that's why I never have and never would say something so flat stupid...but thanks.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:29 pmi really doubt they're both town so it's not a big issue with me. All I know is that excessive setup spec in a closed game with unusual mechanics isn't the right call. You're too unlikely to arrive to the correct answer with this little information and so much conflicting data. We nailed three scum by catching them on their day play. We should continue doing that.

Alright. I'm convinced. =p

I will say, it's > rand scummy of Tim to be this insistent that Wilgy is for sure a dirty liar who should definitely be yeeted before him when it doesn't take me a lot of mental energy to come up with solutions or ways Wilgy could be telling the truth.

So from Tim's pov, when he learns that I have a result that says Ted targeted Tim N1, and Wilgy has a result that says only 1 player targeted Ted. Tim says he believes me, but he doesn't believe Wilgy and takes issue with his 1 player visited Ted-claim. Well, if I have a result that shows that Tim's supposed block wasn't successful, then why is that 1 player part of the claim still an issue? Because my claim and Wilgy's claim are actually compatible on that issue. The one player Wilgy would've seen is me, and not Tim.

Probably thinking to hard about it. Yeet Tim, I trust you/the thread.

Please point out this "easy way that Wilgy is telling the truth." Brother I TRIED to find a way that Wilgy could be telling the truth. I went looking for "JPIC gets vigged AFTER Wilgy tracks but BEFORE he postcaps Tutuu because that made sense...but Sloonei shot that down. I went looking for "JPIC gets roleblocked but tracker still reads his intent." Sloonei shot that down too.

I'm at "Tutuu's lift power makes her immune to non lethal powers but it isn't mentioned in her role card" or "someone with a power like Juliet's that has not claimed it protected Tutuu." Neither of those seem nearly as simple as Wilgy is just a wolf. Like not even in the same order of magnitude.

At the same time, I know I at least tried to go to Ted's on N1. It seems unlikely that you would lie about it, so Wilgy's other result seems false as well. What went wrong with my roleblock is a hard question (for me, I understand that from out there I can just be lying) but Wilgy still looks like this part of his claim isn't true either.

So I have actually put in a whole lot of mental energy looking for ways Wilgy could be telling the truth.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:36 pm yeah, the attitude that wilgy had makes me trust him more. not enough to not exe him unless something happens, but enough to not make me want to exe him first. he was like "okay, np, let's thunderdome and I'll flip town and out tim", and tim was like super insistent on trying to stay alive and trying to push a specific worldview

Yeah, well, "trust me even though in this case I'm wrong...just lay down and die and leave the game in my capable hands" is not something I'm really good about. You're the one who wants me dead so bad, and I have no interest in thunderdoming you. You're wrong, and you're reasoning is absent, but you're still on the very very short list of people I think are not only not wolves but not 3P either.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:23 pm imo we're never going to solve this by debating setup speculation in endless circles so let's just flip tim -> wilgy, see if their roles shed any light on the matter, and if we still can't figure it out we play it mountainous and just straight up ignore night weirdness and exe scummy people. it doesn't matter how twisty the rogue or whatever made the night actions if they get caught on scummy play.

Yeah well I'm about to die so I really don't have anything else to offer. If I were to flip red you can just ignore everything I said.

And the majority of "scummy play" comes from interactions...w/w interactions or w/v interactions trying to push mischops. The 3P isn't involved in that at all so your whole theory falls apart.

The 3P can be totally towny town, so long as they are not so towny that they attract the NK. So the only limit on the 3P at this point is that they cannot have made a claim that makes them an absolute lock early NK target. That's Hally, you, and Tutuu...maybe Mac. If Mac is #P with a wincon he thinks he can hit by day five MAYBE he expects his nebulous "I can't talk about it" investigative role puts him off far enough.

I do not think the 3P is in the lower POE, because they are not being towny enough. I guess randing 3P wouldn't automatically make someone try hard, but it sure seems like it should.

You're gonna follow this "flip Tim, flip Wilgy" plan, and that's fine. I think the reverse order would be better since Wilgy seems obv wolf and this assigning me as 3P seems pretty speculative but with the conflict between my actions and Dizzy's it's understandable. When I flip green there will be suss about Dizzy. I think that's unfortunate because he seems pretty towny other than this action conflict. Whatever you do, please don't go haring off after Dizzy and put Wilgy off AGAIN.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:10 pm Yaaaas, I vote Tim is the 3p vanillarizer that actually targeted JPIC and not Ted, cause that would make everything make sense instantly. =p

I don't feel that's the case though.

See I was kinda thinking 3P with a day power vanillarizer targets me day one and JPIC day two...but that means JPIC was vanillad but still traveled so Wilgy could track him, but I did not travel because Wilgy didn't see me.

It also would call the question of why the heck would a 3P vanillarizer target me and JPIC, of all people.

BTW, if I was a 3P vanillarizer I wouldn't have targeted JPIC. Hally was an outed watcher so most dangerous to a 3P skulking in the night, but I might have been willing to assume the wolves would get her. If so I'd have vanillad some other claimed investigative role, like Mac.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:05 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:38 pm It is true that for me everything does not fit together perfectly. Something is up with JPIC for example. His living should have made us not have Night 2 open thread but we did. Host says it wasn't host error. Night 2 was also the night Wilgy says he tracked JPIC to tutuu. So the whole JPIC N2 thing is just weird. Maybe there was some crazy day action that caused the open night and Wilgy just lied like most people are saying. But the whole thing is suspect to me.

Could he have been put on the lift, his action delayed, and we won't have night 3 chat instead? I ask this with only a loose understanding of whether or not that is possible.

The lift is Tutuu and she targeted Hally, not JPIC. Her action is also a night action, so...that just doesn't work. Sloonei knew we had night chat as soon as night started...not whenever Tutuu sent in her action.