The Syndicate

Chloe wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:51 am sheeping my mason
nyoom

[VOTE: Amy] aubergine

Chloe wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 3:52 am think dya is a likelier hit than amy just for the fact that i've liked amy's tone
but i also feel like they have high partner equity

...

bronana wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:03 pm If I ignore arete and vulgard godreading each other town, I'm not sure how villagy I actually think they are

maybe they're w/w and playing it up for theater, but I feel like this saying that:

Amy wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:55 pm my biggest issue with zack is that it felt like after people started theorizing a me/him/dya wolfteam he kinda... shifted his positioning in the threadstate, such that it more closely aligned with mine and dya's? i can try to elaborate on what i mean by this but i'd have to pull quotes and i'm still kinda multitasking

and like, normally that would be a good thing! cause at the very least i can be secure in my own alignment, so zack agreeing with me should be a good thing

but it just felt... too convenient. and like, if i were a wolf in zack's position, that's probably exactly what i'd do - try to tie myself to a villager(/villagers, if dya is green) and bank on people cooling on the team read when that flip comes back

i have some other concerns about zack but i want to reread to see if they're worth anything

@Dyslexicon you asked me earlier what i meant by not being worried about zack after kza's flip - it was mostly a pretty level 1 "i remember zack wanting to kill kza yesterday, so that's probably a good look for him" sort of thing. i know some people have since cased his kza progression; i haven't had the chance to go back and look at it myself

if you are a villager, and i was a wolf, in this gamestate ... I would just be trying to kill you.

why would i even be trying to tie myself to you when you are ahead of me in the POE idgi, I'm under suspicion but I've never felt like me dying today was a serious threat.

yeah i cant see bro/vulgard as w/w, sorry for taking so long bronana

they* sorry, my brain is mush at the moment writing so many words and jumping from person to person

Now we get into not w/w pairs.


Nutella and Dya are never wolves together. Nutella is relentless on Dya day 1 including saying Dya/Gav are just w/w and voting Dya over Gav, telling her “sorry for the rand”, and calling out Dya's read on Alison making her the wolf in the Alison/Dya exchange. “I feel like Dya's narrative doesn't make sense at all”.

Nutella and Chloe are never wolves together. Chloe spent two paragraphs explaining the IC Nutella read out of nowhere. Additionally, Nutella just daggers Tangrowth on day 1 with a “this is SO MANY words and i dont have a GODDAMN clue what it says” in response to a long, thought out post of Tangys.

As a continuation of that, Chloe and Bronana are not wolves together because Bronana immediately called out Chloe for doing that two paragraph read on IC nutella.

Bronana and C4 should never be wolves together, given Bronana spent a chunk of day 2 calling out c4's day as being “just weird, it's like he is expressing a ton of confidence but is not making much of an impact pushing those confident reads?” and then followed it up with shade overnight and at the start of the day.

As I read through Bronana's iso some more there's also a good interaction with Vulgard near eod. First a “i am not crazy about vulgard's d2 either, i don't know if I'm comfortable calling them v/v regardless of how well they claim to read each other” followed by a “lets say you get your cfd on me (i seem to be your only real suspect apparently afaict), i flip town. how does this affect the rest of your reads? (if you want to also answer the converse of cfding me and i flip mafia, feel free but know it's a dreamland)” that doesn't seem aligned. Plus, I think his post a minute ago about how “JK vulgard doesn't need marl to switch because my vote on sunbae could be something to look at” comes from the mindset of a villager like, every time (I hope Im not proven wrong).

I also don't think Dya and Arete make the most sense as wolfmates. There's a pretty ok back and forth where Arete is asking Dya some questions on day 2 and Dyas just chilling answering them and it doesn't seem like, a fabricated thing or anything meant to be pointed back to later or anything.

I think people should reread dya's case on c4 from day 2 and subsequent followups and see what you think. I'm the one that asked about a c4 read and I can't quite land on how I feel about it from a “can it be partners” front. I like the case as a whole fwiw.



Side note: it feels so good to be able to just like, play werewolf without the stress of staying hidden/not rocking the boat too much. Prs suuuuuck

I'm reading through Dya's iso and just want to take note of a few posts I missed which were asking me to stop using the phrase "dejected" etc to describe them. That's my bad, apologies. Shouldn't try to act like I know your emotions and it's gotta be annoying. I'll try and axe that from my game in the future. Never really considered it before but totally understand.

@dyachei

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 8:03 pm @sunbae I found the things that made me tinfoil Dya/Vulgard.
May or may not be extremely dumb.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 7:32 amI'm kinda townreading Dya for their consistent frustration over being scumread, but at the same time I can only mildly townread them for it for so long. This and their Alison scumread they've been repping for a while are the only things I remember Dya doing, while most other players have voiced reads on every other player in the game, done significant analysis, etc.

Using the word "repping" is interesting, because it doesn't signal to me a mindframe that it's a read Dya is having, but rather projecting.

However, first of all, lol language. And I also gathered that Vulgard, from what I understand, is not a native English speaker like myself. And I myself may misread the significance of this particular word here. But it crossed my mind.

Vulgard wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:32 am I think I've been fairly consistent in saying that you haven't been exclusively tunneling Alison, but that your read on Alison is definitely the highlight of your contributions so far. It's the first thing I associate with you in this game, outside of the constant defensive attitude. The defensive attitude part is something I could see being NAI based on how I saw you play as town sometimes, but yeah.

Speaking of reads outside of Alison, do the flips give you more reads outside of Alison? What do you think @ my townread of Alison?

Also this. I don't quite understand, because they say the defensive attitude could be NAI based on how they have seen Dya as town. Does this mean that Dya is not town here? Is it meant to say "based on how I saw you play as scum"? Am I reading this wrong or reading too much into this?

To be clear, I actually read Vulgard as more town. And I don't really have a read on Dya. But these are two things that crossed my mind, and they are very detailed, so it may just be me reading too much into things.

This is the post im referencing and I cannot fathom this came from a wolf towards wolf vulgard

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 11:21 pm if vulgard jailed sunbae, there was zero reason to claim because my votepost could have reasonably been interpreted as a soft that I'd jailed sunbae. Surely vulgard would have recognized the opportunity for a potential roleswap without blatantly hinting to marl to claim?

ignore previous post, this is never a wolf though and bro is just a villager

Ok, let me try my best to lay out the current game state prior to really digging into stuff. There are 13 players left and no extra kills. There are 3 wolves and 10 villagers. That means we have three mischops available if my math is right

10/3 → chop 1 → 9/3 → nk1 8/3
8/3 → chop 2 → 7/3 → nk2 6/3
6/3 → chop 3 → 5/3 → nk3 4/3
Chop 4 = loss

We have two power roles which means 8 non-pr villagers out of 11 non-pr players. So we need to clear 8 non-pr people. 8. It's a lot given the game state. We have work to do.

Vulgard is a wolf. Vulgard was jailkept last night and no kill happened. Additionally, Amy – the claimed tracker – received an action (Dizzy went nowhere). This means that the wolves did not attempt to kill Amy, that the Jailkeeper (me) did not save Amy, and the wolves did not attempt to roleblock Amy. The most likely scenario – by a significant margin – is that Vulgard – someone who was perfectly above suspicion thus far – is a wolf that carried the kill towards Amy OR carried both the kill to X and a roleblock to Amy. This is because if the wolves tried to kill Amy she would be dead and if the wolves didn't try to kill Amy then they would roleblock her. Since neither occurred we must assume this scenario is the most likely.

The only scenario that has been explored where Vulgard is not a wolf is if Marl is one. This is due to the night chat between Vulgard and Marl. In it, Vulgard claimed Jailkeeper to Marl. In this scenario, villager Vulgard tried to bait a wolf read Marl into killing him over the tracker. Wolf Marl bites, expecting Amy to be jailkept by Vulgard due to their conversation and wolves save their roleblock. This scenario – while technically plausible – makes little logical sense considering it results in the wolves holding their roleblock for no reason given Amy will be out of tracks after the night. This would mean that Amy would have to also be a wolf or else the rest of the scenario makes little sense. For this scenario to continue, marl must not only be a wolf with Amy, but also a wolf with C4. That's due to Vulgard insinuating a soft to Marl that he blocked C4, causing Marl to fake claim to try and out C4. In this scenario, c4 actually would have to have carried the kill, the wolves would know it, and were throwing C4 under the bus thinking C4 was outed.

The only reason this is even listed is due to Arete going HAM refusing to believe Vulgard is a wolf, so I am being thorough. This theory is also IMMENSELY flawed because it would required wolves to have targeted Vulgard for a kill while also believing Vulgard saved c4. This is, as such, mechanically impossible. Additionally, the real tracker would 100% claim today after being out of tracks. This has not happened. If it did, the wolf team is exactly Marl, C4, and Amy and the game is over.

As such, mechanically, mathematically, however you want to spin it, Vulgard is a wolf. End of story.



Once it becomes established that Vulgard is a wolf, Marl becomes a villager. The way Vulgard handled Marl in the night chat claiming JK to him and then entered today goading Marl into “seeing what I'm seeing” and claiming a block on c4 is how a wolf treats the pocketed villager. I also believed that Marl was a villager after reading his iso yesterday so I feel this is a pretty concrete landing spot.

This leaves the game at:

v
Sunbae
Amy
Marl

w
Vulgard


Left to sort:
Arete
Bronana
C4
Dya
Dyslexicon
Nutella
Outed Wolf
SPF
Chloe



The next person to sort is Arete. During end of day 1 I noticed that Arete spent their time making a pretty long, thorough, detailed case on why Vulgard was a villager. They both mentioned their god-reads of each other and declared – repeatedly – that they were both town. I asked Arete why they spent time talking about that and the response was to ensure nobody fear killed Vulgard on day 4. At the time, I felt this was just so far out there that a wolf would be unlikely to come up with it. I also feel like the reaction to learning Vulgard is a wolf is just … really weird for a wolf to do? Like, you have to know as a wolf that no matter if you put all of your eggs into the defend Vulgard basket, they are dying either today or tomorrow after I do with zero exceptions. I feel like a wolf would make a production about being fooled and make sure to be right on this. However, the only reasons I find Arete towny this game are due to saying things I don't expect which, when we're at this point, isn't really enough. They have tied themselves so intricately to Vulgard that I believe at this time it is impossible to clear them. I will put them into their own tier: Villagery for now but don't lose to them.


Next we of course get to Dya. Dya has spent two days pressing Allison who flipped vanilla town. Mispushes happen, they are no biggie. But during the course of those two days multiple people pointed out that it felt as if Dya's focus was extremely narrow. Like, the sole purpose of their posting was to kill Alison and not to solve an entire wolf team. I feel similar to that and will await where Dya goes over the next 5 real life days (today is Vulgard). I also made the note during day 2 that the initial Dya/Alison wagons shifted hard to Alison/Amy at some point and I think that's a relevant thread to investigate. Find how that wagon built. Is it nefarious? Is it organic? I think the answer to that question will help answer the question of Dya. Dya goes into a wolf read tier for me.


Chloe: I had big concerns about Chloe when Alison flipped town. The reason is that Chloe was simultaneously calling Alison wolfy and villagery for similar things depending on what she was trying to say. “Wouldn't wolf Alison be trying to do something” and “I guess if she's not gonna do anything she's in anti spew” are very difficult for me see from the same player being town. Additionally, Chloe's posting as a whole read like someone spinning their wheels waiting for the mischop. The long catchup posts of day 1 especially seemed concerning to me. I feel like when villagers catch up they just … catch up … and don't make a production out of it. I call it “busy work” and I do it a ton as wolf. I think it's important to check when Chloe turned on Alison because I believe if it's once Dya started getting run up again then we have significant concerns of a w/w pairing. Wolf Tier Read.

Outed Wolf is someone who I have a villager read on but none of them for great reasons. He's one of the best wolves I've ever seen but I just feel this is a villager game. Most notably, the posting today during all this confusion – specifically the “regardless of the mechanics vulgard kept calling me/sunbae/bronana wolfy but never doing anything with it so wolf” post -strikes me as someone who is a villager. I also think the push on Amy came from a good place as well as pressing others for their Amy read. I think Outed Wolf is a villager a significant portion of the time.

Bronana has one or two small things that concern me – notably how I believe they spent a portion near eod trying to push me onto the Alison wagon with the “you're letting others distract you, you know what you want to do” post. I can envision villager bronana just trying to help me right the ship though given my stated uncertainty. I really liked his overnight post and his posts on C4 today, and I think him opening today with a vote on me was a pretty understandable and reasonable place for his head to go. Specifically with the phrase “who are the wolves” because, frankly, I've been pretty tight lipped about who I thought the wolves are. I think their comments about KZA that Dizzy was against are perfectly reasonable (I also saw the 3 kza posts in the iso and didn't explore further when I called him a potential kill). My only other minor concern is that through a quick skim of the iso they avoided the Dya wagon (voted both Alison and Amy) so I could see some minor potential wolfmates there but they've also poked at Dya some too so who knows? I have as “probably a villager but I wouldn't be the game on it right now”.

There are a lot of different people that think Nutella is an obvious villager and if Chloe is a wolf I think Nutella always is town given the two paragraph essay about why IC nutella was towny. Amy specifically feels strongly here (was absolutely shocked I found nutella wolfy d2) and at this point I'll just grumble and believe people. I do think Nutella has spent quite a few posts trying to shade people for “weird observations” instead of normal wolfy things (“should I find it suspicious that sunbae is making pr reads” was one but there were others) and that concerns me, as well as the way KZA was talked about while pushing Gavriel day 1, but I'm willing to chalk all of this up to just not being in sync with them right now.

I think Spf is just a villager. They haven't felt performative or called attention to themselves in a way I was concerned about. There was a really weird interaction Vulgard had about SPF on day 1 where he made a wolf read on her and then walked it back when others bit back and like, maaaaaybe that could be distancing and letting villagers make your villa read on a teammate for you, but I really enjoyed the interactions she had with me about various things. Most importantly, I think she's been poking around trying to figure things out thoughout the game without any concern for making sure she looks good in hindsight.

I spent quite an amount of time last game day reading Dizzy's iso. I feel overall fine with them – especially given their pretty sick “word choice” read on Vulgard “repping” something and the fact that it was on a wolf makes me feel even better. I even said “thats a type of read I see newcomb make that I sponge to great success” and, truth be told, was the deciding factor in me jailkeeping there. Dizzy goat.

That leaves c4 who, idfk. Dya's been pressing there, Bronana has started pressing there, Vulgard was insinuating wolf there to Marl. Basically c4 has become the next in line on the poe list and I have no reason to really argue with it. I didn't love the reaction to the Marl thing but meh. I need to look in there.



My current game state is:

Town
Sunbae
Amy

Likely Town
Marl
SPF
Nutella
Dizzy
Outed Wolf

Think villa but wouldn't bet game on it
Bronana
Arete


POE
C4
Chloe
Dya

Wolf
Vulgard

The only other big brain scenario I can imagine is:

- vVulgard claims jk to wMarl
- wC4 carries kill on vulgard
- no kill
- wolves think c4 outed, marl initiates bus
- hilarity ensues

no idea how amy gets a track in that scenario

seems unlikely?

It's not even my theory it's just literally the only solution I can come up

In that world, marl is a wolf with Amy and they tried to kill Vulgard who claimed JK and I saved there

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:14 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 8:11 pm Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it

Sunbae, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolf Vulgard randomly hardclaiming Jailkeeper to Marl in the neighborhood, overnight, before he saw the night results, when the real-in-this-world Jailkeeper claiming at any point while Vulgard was still alive would force him into a thunderdome, I'm all ears, but that scenario seems nonexistent to me so help me see it

(it's possible that I'm wrong about the exact details of night actions/who was carrying the kill/etc. but I'm not really sure why you would falsely claim a redcheck on him for any reason other than being a wolf)

The only world I can fathom where Vulgard is town is one where Amy is lying about being the tracker and when there was no kill tonight they knew that jailkeeper didn't target Amy so she made one up.

That's the world I can envision but it doesn't explain why Vulgard claimed JK to marl.

alright, i tried to engage oh well

off to other things and then isos when im around

Arete, if you can come up with a plan that results in wolves trying to kill Vulgard, not roleblocking Amy, Vulgard claiming Jailkeeper to Marl, and me being the real Jailkeeper I'm all ears but that scenario seems nonexistent to me (or to others who believed the c4 claim by marl was a mechanical lock) so help me see it

Bro, I believe I've conceded your c4 stuff already but I'm fine with it. I not longer thing it necessarily means c4 is town and I have zero other reasons to town read them at this point. I need to actually spend time reading Vul at some point too, but I'll be sure to focus there as well and give some final thoughts on it.

Amy, good gif.


I think Nutellas reaction to today has been yuck fwiw but I'll look there in a bit too.Amy, nows the time to let me know how strong your nutella read is.


I'ma bail for a while (lots of posts used already). Gonna spend them all on game relevant content and entirely ignore any claim stuff from vulgard or whatever. I would suggest we go through the following things:

1. Iso vulgard and find the people he started turning on when others did.
2. Find a pretty solid group of villagers we trust. Need like 3-4 other than yourselves.
3. Sort dya because lost in all of the claim stuff is that Dya has shown approx zero care about being wrong in a similar way to Vulgard on the god read
4. Create a poe and start boxing wolves in

The time for "oh i know them meta read!" and "previous game differs!" lil cliquey reads to hit the bricks and "heres whats happened this game" reads to take over.

Well arete, vulgard physically claimed jailkeeper and I am the jailkeeper to go along with the fact that, you know, i roleblocked him and nobody died

so im not really in the market to explain why he did what he did. cause hes a wolf. i hope you come around and if not, i hope you take it well when its revealed (unless youre a wolf in which i admire the effort)

would you prefer "jedi mind tricked" instead of "conned"?

dyachei wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:43 pm sunbae has been sort of towny for me but sort of not, that fits with PR pretty well

towny when im actually talking about the game, not towny when i saying shit to not die is a pretty good recap of this one lol

nutella wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:41 pm god this is confusing ok

its really not?

marl had nightchat with vulgard
vulgard conned him into claiming jk to out the real one
it worked

jk was super awesome tho and at least blocked the kill vulgard carried on his way out and people should feel ok about the way he played

arete is either a wolf or just really doesnt want it to hbe true and is trying to find a world where it could make sense
alas such a world exists not

my initial thought was "vul trying to get marl to out as jk on c4 red check once the day started means that c4 isn't a wolf. vul knew they were 100% outed (my thinking was they thought c4 was jk so they were trying to get marl to claim it, c4 counters, we kill c4, then marl, then hate ourselves) so ill listen to arguments on it being some mega level with c4 wolf too

Marl flat out said he claimed jk in the chat last night so forgive me if I think no further on the "why would vulgard claim jk" thread than "because hes a wolf and wanted to"

[v] vulgard [/v]

i fully expect a counterclaim but learning that they were already setting one up and used it to get c4 makes me think c4 is always a villager as is marl

ah unfortunate

i targeted outed wolf as an angel target, not vulgard

fwiw, im 99% sure vulgard is specifically roleblocker and that means amy gets a track tonight because ima try to block another kill

though i targeted him as an angel target

also outed wolf didnt carry the n1 kill fwiw

ya marls town

bronana wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:13 pm bronana still locktown

i did have a thought at some point that sunbae being hyper-aware looking for town PRs could be cuz he's the JK but obviously I wasn't gonna say that out loud

also i'm the real JK but won't say my target until later

i was so aware because i was so afraid of roleblocking our prs lol

also aretes obviously a wolf if vulgard is so just mow em both down

Arete wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:12 pm I'm not really sure why Sunbae is trying to 1-v-1 Marl here when c4 is already outed but that sure is a thing that's happening, I guess?

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm pretty sure vulgard baited him into claiming to throw shade at the day and out me but my hands are tied and i cant let the day be spent clearing vulgard and casing c4

so your theory is ... Marl is a villager who Vulgard somehow mind controlled into fakeclaiming jailkeeper? lol

considering that marl just said that its what happened, yeah

you got baited friend, happens to the best of us
caused me to claim too :penisve:

its ok, vulgards pretty good and it was a sick play, im a fan

i wouldnt have claimed til later (if at all today cause id try to case it first) but uh, yeah this was shaping up to be a disaster

like i said, i didnt want the town cred

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm Still think c4s posts suck

Still think he's a wolf

Can't change my mind

i was gonna have it play out to see if hed cat but wolves know c4 didnt carry

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:08 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:06 pm ehhhh i think ima skip the whole song and dance because wolves know this is wrong

counter
vulgards a wolf

WAIT WHAT

i am the jailkeeper

i roleblocked vulgard because i could tell this game was going poorly and that the god read player not caring one bit about being wrong was sketch + they were the easy kill carrier

ergo they are a wolf

pretty sure vulgard baited him into claiming to throw shade at the day and out me but my hands are tied and i cant let the day be spent clearing vulgard and casing c4

i posted a me/amy pic when i realized she was a pr also cause we were gonna run this ish

lol at people like "wow sunbae why you paying attention to who the prs are" and "wow sunbae why are you laying low"

ehhhh i think ima skip the whole song and dance because wolves know this is wrong

counter
vulgards a wolf

i still dont know why marl claimed tho

outed wolf wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:03 pm

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:02 pm remember that time i said marl was acting weird and different than i remembered

pew pew pew

#wolfreadingprsgang

i had hally d1 too

remember that time i said marl was acting weird and different than i remembered

pew pew pew

do i understand it right that we have to wait 48 hours to kill an outed wolf?

Marluxion wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:58 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:56 pm i viscerally dont want that report to be real because i am extremely frustrated that i let myself get pocketed so easily if that's the case

but if it is real, then c4 is a wolf, yeah

I mean there are non zero worlds in which the kill was on c4. It's just

I'm having a really hard time seeing them ATM

if i understand amys post it means without being roleblocked and with no death, you got the wolf kill so no worries

oh nice good work marl
idk why youd claim but w/e
ima go do anything else then
later gators

good chats
good night

if alison does end up being jk and claims, i trust you all to figure something else out without needing me around

I'm going to go do other things. Didn't quite finish the isos but I do feel like my Marl/Dyslexicon ones helped me a bit. Hopefully with Dysl pops in the few issues can be cleared up.

Hoping Alison just flips wolf because tomorrow might be pretty chaotic otherwise. Last chance for questions directed at me today.

and if my worldview is wrong i have confidence that i can adjust as necessary
though hopefully ill be dead before i have to