The Syndicate

I think town concensus was correct exactly 0 days.

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:06 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 7:05 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:26 am Everyone knows their rolls for tonight?

60 if we kill trash panda
55 if we kill giant panda
Bumping for visibility
Is that for even nights?

Yes

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:31 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:29 pmYeah, I can only speak for myself: If you don't have a read on me there's only one reason - you don't know how to. It's got nothing to do with how the game is being played / progressing.

I think where you have a point is there are few associatives, but I think that's a healthy exercise even of itself for improving individual reads.
Sure.

I mean, you have a read on me, and that definitely doesn't help so

And yeah, I don't have a read on you at all. But if you're mafia, you'll probably win.

My kill list remains unchanged from this interaction.

You're probably right about my ability to read you either way...

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:28 pm Wait wait wait.

Marmot also assumed that I was mafia last game.
I don't think I corrected him, maybe I did.

But did you all talk about this in mafia chat, thinking how I was mafia last game? Cause I wasn't.

NAA/Marmot tinfoil has begun.

For real for real.

Honestly, I picked up on what Marmot said because I didn't see you correct it. I haven't read the other game and all of my knowledge about the other game is from stuff that was said in thread.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:25 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:24 pmAlso, the reason it's different is that there are probably fewer players that you're comfortable reading - and - weren't you mafia?

If so I think this post makes little sense / I think you're also mafia here - but you know that based on my shot list
No, I was town. And I had all 4 scum nailed on D0. Lol.

And I'm town here too. And I have nothing.

Yeah, I can only speak for myself: If you don't have a read on me there's only one reason - you don't know how to. It's got nothing to do with how the game is being played / progressing.

I think where you have a point is there are few associatives, but I think that's a healthy exercise even of itself for improving individual reads.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:20 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:14 pm I'm going to break silence - I was lurking to maintain 69 posts - because I feel like it's required.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:04 pm This setup seems so weird now. I feel like last time, it was super easy to get reads and discussions going. Maybe because Nut had the gun and jumped on everyone and everywhere.

Now I'm just like waiting for whatever Nook is going to do and in a general meh mood.

If we need it later, maybe infuse this with a whoever gets the most votes gets shot or something, to make something more happen. Or at least pretend. Dunno
Last time town lost.

I don't understand the vitriol that's been directed my way, I think Nanook should take a shot to end the day, everyone take 24hrs to rest and think things over.

DDL, I've interacted with everything that a) wasn't playing against my own win condition b) wasn't a direct attempt of someone reading my alignment.

I will continue to not interact on those points, and I cannot play against my own win condition by explaining certain mech éléments, even if people get upset over it. I don't prevent you from interacting with other players, and I don't actively try to prevent people from making plays with their night actions (even though I think it's suboptimal). So, I don't understand why I can't play my game and you play yours without the threat of not following an objectively good night plan that has no relevance to daytime discussion.

That's all I'll say on the matter.

My reads are largely unchanged - I could play with the order, but it's still the same 5 for me.
I haven't directed any vitriol your way.

Last time, town lost much because of some pretty terrible shots tbh.

The game was solved on the early days.

But my point was, that last time, it was much much easier to get reads and it felt more like a normal mafia game.

I'm just speculating why this may be.

I'm obviously not doing much to break out of it either. Because I don't really feel like it.

Also, the reason it's different is that there are probably fewer players that you're comfortable reading - and - weren't you mafia?

If so I think this post makes little sense / I think you're also mafia here - but you know that based on my shot list

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:20 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:14 pm I'm going to break silence - I was lurking to maintain 69 posts - because I feel like it's required.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:04 pm This setup seems so weird now. I feel like last time, it was super easy to get reads and discussions going. Maybe because Nut had the gun and jumped on everyone and everywhere.

Now I'm just like waiting for whatever Nook is going to do and in a general meh mood.

If we need it later, maybe infuse this with a whoever gets the most votes gets shot or something, to make something more happen. Or at least pretend. Dunno
Last time town lost.

I don't understand the vitriol that's been directed my way, I think Nanook should take a shot to end the day, everyone take 24hrs to rest and think things over.

DDL, I've interacted with everything that a) wasn't playing against my own win condition b) wasn't a direct attempt of someone reading my alignment.

I will continue to not interact on those points, and I cannot play against my own win condition by explaining certain mech éléments, even if people get upset over it. I don't prevent you from interacting with other players, and I don't actively try to prevent people from making plays with their night actions (even though I think it's suboptimal). So, I don't understand why I can't play my game and you play yours without the threat of not following an objectively good night plan that has no relevance to daytime discussion.

That's all I'll say on the matter.

My reads are largely unchanged - I could play with the order, but it's still the same 5 for me.
I haven't directed any vitriol your way.

Last time, town lost much because of some pretty terrible shots tbh.

The game was solved on the early days.

But my point was, that last time, it was much much easier to get reads and it felt more like a normal mafia game.

I'm just speculating why this may be.

I'm obviously not doing much to break out of it either. Because I don't really feel like it.

Sorry my post was not directed on you - poor separation from the quote

I'm going to break silence - I was lurking to maintain 69 posts - because I feel like it's required.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 6:04 pm This setup seems so weird now. I feel like last time, it was super easy to get reads and discussions going. Maybe because Nut had the gun and jumped on everyone and everywhere.

Now I'm just like waiting for whatever Nook is going to do and in a general meh mood.

If we need it later, maybe infuse this with a whoever gets the most votes gets shot or something, to make something more happen. Or at least pretend. Dunno

Last time town lost.

I don't understand the vitriol that's been directed my way, I think Nanook should take a shot to end the day, everyone take 24hrs to rest and think things over.

DDL, I've interacted with everything that a) wasn't playing against my own win condition b) wasn't a direct attempt of someone reading my alignment.

I will continue to not interact on those points, and I cannot play against my own win condition by explaining certain mech éléments, even if people get upset over it. I don't prevent you from interacting with other players, and I don't actively try to prevent people from making plays with their night actions (even though I think it's suboptimal). So, I don't understand why I can't play my game and you play yours without the threat of not following an objectively good night plan that has no relevance to daytime discussion.

That's all I'll say on the matter.

My reads are largely unchanged - I could play with the order, but it's still the same 5 for me.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:06 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:01 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.
I have 2 lock town reads that you're probably not shooting. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Not sure who the second is offhand but I doubt you're wrong

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:02 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.
the problem with giving a public PoE is that it tells the mafia whether they should gamble on a nanook shot tonight.
Does it?

Really I just need a bit more reads on other people from those im not townreading so I can form associatives better but I dont think it's good if my towncore is public for nk purposes

I could comment, but it would be against my wincon to do so.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:04 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:02 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.
the problem with giving a public PoE is that it tells the mafia whether they should gamble on a nanook shot tonight.

We're going to have to play mafia at some point.

We are playing mafia. Not every game of mafia is required to have the same style of play.

Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:02 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.
the problem with giving a public PoE is that it tells the mafia whether they should gamble on a nanook shot tonight.

This is true... There is no harm in me giving my PoE, because the mafia team don't respect me as a player.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:00 pm If some/most of you guys could give four person POEs, that would be super helpful for me to organize how everyone is viewing the game. Or your confident lock town reads, either is helpful. Tyty.

I have 2 lock town reads that you're probably not shooting. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Prediction: Shoot someone complaining about the logic that is getting them scum read based on night kill, probably kills mafia.

sig wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:50 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:57 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:56 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:54 pm I don't know how valuable night kill analysis is going to be - other than it's not a mechanically minded mafia team.
I don't do calculus. What makes you think this?
Explaining would be playing against my win condition.
Yea this isn"t an answer lol

So you want me to tell the mafia how I believe is the best mechanical way for them to play the game, and back it up with data?

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:57 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:56 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:54 pm I don't know how valuable night kill analysis is going to be - other than it's not a mechanically minded mafia team.
I don't do calculus. What makes you think this?
Explaining would be playing against my win condition.

@sig 2 posts down from the one you quoted.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:24 pm The only explanation for that kill is that scum feared me getting protected by one of the 10 doctors and went for a doc dodge kill.

This if true would clear so many people.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:08 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:06 pm I expect your socky 2022 nominations
I'll fudge the votes in your favor, don't worry.

Ok, I want best newcomer this year. I didn't play the minimum amount to no longer be considered a rookie.

I expect your socky 2022 nominations

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:04 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 10:08 pm I take the falcon read back.

I would shoot Sig, creature or spacedaisy

Hi @Spacedaisy nice to finally get a game with you. Welcome to The Syndicate, Nanook has a gun... He went out onto his front porch and shouted NRA... And they delivered a gun within 10 minutes.

"Welcome to the Syndicate"

Someone gets it.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 12:47 pm Yeah this game isn't gonna be fun to play if half the plauers are gonna go "nothing matters just let nanook do everything"

I guess I gonna stop posting for today then and let nanook do everything.

See you next phase.

Sorting out the night mechanics & ensuring that Nanook doesn't incorrectly shoot me is doing nothing.

Under that premise, I accept that doing nothing is optimal.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:57 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:55 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:49 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:42 am Sorry, but this is objectively false, Nanook has the gun. LOL
And he has no way of making informed decisions unless people post and participate.

Also if you are gonna just spend the game quoting people and telling them "lol all you said don't matter since you don't have the gun", I'll just ignore you because that isn't useful and isn't funny.
My point isn't that your opinion doesn't matter, it's that... Assume Urist knows he's not getting shot, his posting so that people can read him better is really meaningless.
And you think he knows that because... ?
I mean, I can say with 95+% confidence that Urist is not getting shot today.

I don't want you to take my posts the wrong way, I was simply saying you're wrong because you don't have a good grasp on how Nanook is viewing the game. I'm not saying that what YOU post doesn't matter because you don't have a gun. I did earlier say that Falcon's read on me didn't matter because he didn't have a gun... You can expect me to continue to not reply to people's reads on me this game.
I don't haver anything to reply to your claim that you can read nanook's mind besides "Okay".

I didn't claim that, but thanks for the comedy act.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:51 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:49 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:42 am Sorry, but this is objectively false, Nanook has the gun. LOL
And he has no way of making informed decisions unless people post and participate.

Also if you are gonna just spend the game quoting people and telling them "lol all you said don't matter since you don't have the gun", I'll just ignore you because that isn't useful and isn't funny.
My point isn't that your opinion doesn't matter, it's that... Assume Urist knows he's not getting shot, his posting so that people can read him better is really meaningless.
And you think he knows that because... ?

I mean, I can say with 95+% confidence that Urist is not getting shot today.

I don't want you to take my posts the wrong way, I was simply saying you're wrong because you don't have a good grasp on how Nanook is viewing the game. I'm not saying that what YOU post doesn't matter because you don't have a gun. I did earlier say that Falcon's read on me didn't matter because he didn't have a gun... You can expect me to continue to not reply to people's reads on me this game.

Like me, I'm not getting shot, I could literally no-post for the rest of the day, but I'm bored

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:42 am Sorry, but this is objectively false, Nanook has the gun. LOL
And he has no way of making informed decisions unless people post and participate.

Also if you are gonna just spend the game quoting people and telling them "lol all you said don't matter since you don't have the gun", I'll just ignore you because that isn't useful and isn't funny.

My point isn't that your opinion doesn't matter, it's that... Assume Urist knows he's not getting shot, his posting so that people can read him better is really meaningless.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:38 am
Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:34 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:07 am
Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:43 am
Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:31 am
Urist wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:02 am
Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:11 am

Who says im not lying.
It doesn't matter. Just don't claim.
So you are saying im town now?
I'm saying if you are town, don't claim.
Do you have any opinions on anything that are not mechanics?

Of your 25 posts, only 1 talks about people's alignments, and it's from yesterday, so for Day 2 you are at zero. If participation in scumhunting was to be used as a criterium for who to yeet, you are the first option.
i already said that guillotine is mafia, what more do you want from me
There are 3 wolves in the game, so you need to do more than at least 3 people. Currently you are doing more than 0 people.

Sorry, but this is objectively false, Nanook has the gun. LOL

If I were the shooter I'd be tempted to speed run the game

Sig -> Creature -> Spacedaisy -> Dizzy -> Guillotine

Everyone knows their rolls for tonight?

60 if we kill trash panda
55 if we kill giant panda

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:11 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:05 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:03 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:01 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:54 am
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:47 am When I die please shoot Guillo because this push is fabricated bullshit on a very flimsy reason. DDLs reason isn't any better
Why are you going to die? Seems a bit overdramatic
I don't think Hallowkatt is going to die.
Are you buying HK's "woe is me"? I don't like it, comes across as a bit of desperate AtE
It's a good thing I don't care about your vote then...
You powerwolfin' bro?

If I were wolf, I would have 1 objective, and 1 objective only - get a town read from Urist.

And Maybe Nanook.

I mean, arguably as either alignment, it's in my best interest to be town read by Urist & Nanook, & scum read by the entire rest of the thread. Why? Because one has no influence over the other... And meta.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:03 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:01 am
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:54 am
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:47 am When I die please shoot Guillo because this push is fabricated bullshit on a very flimsy reason. DDLs reason isn't any better
Why are you going to die? Seems a bit overdramatic
I don't think Hallowkatt is going to die.
Are you buying HK's "woe is me"? I don't like it, comes across as a bit of desperate AtE

It's a good thing I don't care about your vote then...

I think Guillo leans town, but I would kill him if we ever got to an endgame state just because of the excessive dumb telling & him claiming the Michelle kill.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:53 am
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:58 am One can pretty much talk about mechanics yet recognize wolves' easiest thing to do is talk about mechanics.
Yeah and what you did was complain that there was so much mech talk (you called it sad) and implied it was a bust and his wolves. Completely overlooking your own role in it. I don’t believe you.

You might though...

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:54 am
hollowkatt wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:47 am When I die please shoot Guillo because this push is fabricated bullshit on a very flimsy reason. DDLs reason isn't any better
Why are you going to die? Seems a bit overdramatic

I don't think Hallowkatt is going to die.

I take the falcon read back.

I would shoot Sig, creature or spacedaisy

Hi @Spacedaisy nice to finally get a game with you. Welcome to The Syndicate, Nanook has a gun... He went out onto his front porch and shouted NRA... And they delivered a gun within 10 minutes.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:56 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:54 pm I don't know how valuable night kill analysis is going to be - other than it's not a mechanically minded mafia team.
I don't do calculus. What makes you think this?

Explaining would be playing against my win condition.

I don't know how valuable night kill analysis is going to be - other than it's not a mechanically minded mafia team.

I would kill creature, Sig, or Falcon today probably.

Clearly, I put Michelle in my top 4 would kill.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:32 pm
sig wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:17 pmBUT, the dizzy thing is more iffy since if they have TMI this would be the perfect time to throw in the post dizzy did. Have michelle flip mafia and maybe get some quick civ points.
What town cred would I be getting? I still don't agree with shooting someone who has 4 posts. Seems like a missed opportunity to get more spew, because Michelle can be spew-y. But she was mafia, so that's a little bit nit-picky I guess.

Yeah, I don't see a problem with shooting someone who has 4 posts.

I might even throw Michelle into that list just so that Dunya can praise me in post if that's the exact 4.

If I were shooting, I would be shooting between:

Dizzy
Creature
Falcon

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:12 pm @NotAnAxehole who was your first townread

Urist

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:08 pm
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:05 pm I mean what I said. You probably die early this game. But we'll see.
Inb4 this is wolf!you straight up telling me that you are gonna kill me.

There's actually a decent probability this is wolf!Dizzy trying to burn shots.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:06 pm Also, we are playing mafia. Even if Nanook makes the actual shots, we still need to scum hunt and find the damn scum. Nanook isn't doing much. We are the ones who have to move this game. I don't even care that much, but come oan.

I guarantee I'm not being shot. I think people need to identify if they're at risk which is most of the game right now - I'd say only 2-3 of us are exempt atp. Those are the players who need to move the game forward.

Also, I think Creature is mafia... We'll see how that read progresses.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:37 pm I think if there are only 2 living giant pandas you always save NANOOK if you have any save left.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:41 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:03 am Alright so what we're doing is rolling 1d100, and if you get AT LEAST this high a number, you save Nanook:

Odd Nights
Code: Select all
# of Living Pandas   Save if you roll at least this number
10                   66
9                    63
8                    60
7                    55
6                    50
5                    45
4                    33
3                    25
2                    15
Even Nights
Code: Select all
# of Living Pandas   Save if you roll at least this number
9                    60
8                    55
7                    50
6                    45
5                    35
4                    25
3                    10
2                    1
Do we claim what we roll so we know who's on Nook? I'm not a big mech play guy

No

hollowkatt wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:44 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:41 pm
Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:03 am Alright so what we're doing is rolling 1d100, and if you get AT LEAST this high a number, you save Nanook:

Odd Nights
Code: Select all
# of Living Pandas   Save if you roll at least this number
10                   66
9                    63
8                    60
7                    55
6                    50
5                    45
4                    33
3                    25
2                    15
Even Nights
Code: Select all
# of Living Pandas   Save if you roll at least this number
9                    60
8                    55
7                    50
6                    45
5                    35
4                    25
3                    10
2                    1
Do we claim what we roll so we know who's on Nook? I'm not a big mech play guy
I think that makes sense yeah

No

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:51 pm How are we doing non-NANOOK saves by the way?

Everybody knows approximately when they'll be needed to save Nanook if they rand their saves for the entire game now, therefore people should only throw saves away if they KNOW that they will be able to fulfill their primary wincondition... And preference for throwing saves away on even numbered days... But leave it up to the individual, no need to discuss it, never claim a save.

Urist wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:52 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:36 am Would everyone be ok with pre-rolling their saves/no saves? What I mean by this is, privately roll & note down whether or not you're saving Nanook at each Panda count so that we can answer any how to questions during the day and nobody is stuck thinking about this at night.

Also, it allows people to start privately forming ideas of what they're going to do with their saves... We can even probably set objectives like "if you have more than 3 saves by day 3, you should use one randomly... Etc... That way we can communicate all of the mech during the day, all calculated - none revealed. Don't soft claim, don't hard claim.
what dice are we rolling?

I think this is fine, it's pretty much in line with the probability you came up with, but mine is a bit more conservative

Odd Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
10 0.666666667 0.333333333
9 0.633333333 0.366666667
8 0.6 0.4
7 0.55 0.45
6 0.5 0.5
5 0.45 0.55
4 0.35 0.65
3 0.25 0.75
2 0.15 0.85

Even Nights
Panda % No Save % Save
9 0.6 0.4
8 0.55 0.45
7 0.5 0.5
6 0.45 0.55
5 0.35 0.65
4 0.25 0.75
3 0.1 0.9
2 0 1

Guillotine wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:43 am
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:36 am Would everyone be ok with pre-rolling their saves/no saves? What I mean by this is, privately roll & note down whether or not you're saving Nanook at each Panda count so that we can answer any how to questions during the day and nobody is stuck thinking about this at night.

Also, it allows people to start privately forming ideas of what they're going to do with their saves... We can even probably set objectives like "if you have more than 3 saves by day 3, you should use one randomly... Etc... That way we can communicate all of the mech during the day, all calculated - none revealed. Don't soft claim, don't hard claim.
Do we get informed if our saves are successful?

Not to my knowledge - we will only know that there was a save or not based on KP.

https://rollthedice.online/en/cdice/1d100

^ Everyone should go here and roll 1d100 for each panda count (odd nights) and each panda count (even nights) If you roll below the threshold, you no save. If you roll above the threshold you save. If you roll everything in advance as I did, you can start to form an idea of whether or not you have saves to spare.

I already posted the values to pass... If @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME is in agreement, then I think we should proceed to prevent/minimize mishaps.

After that no more mechanical discussion all game - just follow the night plan & play mafia.

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