The Syndicate

Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:09 pm Now Paopan 6
Creature 4

I really don't know what the wagon changes imply

Paopan was at 3 since Alexa died.
Creature voting Paopan for self defense makes sense.
You also switched to it which is town.
Was Sabie the only one not on it before outside of those 2?
It doesn't look like a scum driven transition.

Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:07 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:06 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:05 pm If sabie is wolf vig we're fucked
Don't think if Sabie is a wolf vig they'd have 3 shots. Seems a bit excessive.
But the kills happened during the night. What if they were factional kills?

The c4 shot might have been in which case not sure who shot Alexa.
The first kill N1 though is probably always a legit shot as HK claimed 1 kill and no one claiemd the other so it wasn't likely to be a vigilante unless an unclaimed randomly flips Vigilante soon.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:05 pm If sabie is wolf vig we're fucked

Don't think if Sabie is a wolf vig they'd have 3 shots. Seems a bit excessive.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:38 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:34 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:29 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:25 pm Wasn't expecting a modkill today, but alright. She probably wasn't getting healed anyways since Neeko highly doubts there is a day doctor.
Honestly Creature is still probably a better kill than Paopan.
Why?

I'm not a fan of either slot, so what makes Creature more or less scum than Pao in your opinion?
It's mostly because if Mafia chose players Creature would be chosen over Paopan.
Also the Paopan v Alexa feels TvT especially since Paopan is still insisting Alexa is Mafia even though she's very unlikely to flip Mafia.
is there like a reason why we suspect this that I've missed? Like, something beyond wild speculation?

Alexa as a whole has felt pretty Town these last few days and so Mafia!Paopan doesn't really have a reason to push a player who is Town and dying to poison.
Early Paopan was wanting to lynch Alexa despite the poison. Doesn't make sense even if you assume Alexa is Mafia for Mafia!Paopan to turbo bus a poisoned teammate.
Overall no matter how you look at Alexa's slot Paopan pushing it doesn't really make sense from a Mafia perspective.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:29 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:25 pm Wasn't expecting a modkill today, but alright. She probably wasn't getting healed anyways since Neeko highly doubts there is a day doctor.
Honestly Creature is still probably a better kill than Paopan.
Why?

I'm not a fan of either slot, so what makes Creature more or less scum than Pao in your opinion?

It's mostly because if Mafia chose players Creature would be chosen over Paopan.
Also the Paopan v Alexa feels TvT especially since Paopan is still insisting Alexa is Mafia even though she's very unlikely to flip Mafia.

Wasn't expecting a modkill today, but alright. She probably wasn't getting healed anyways since Neeko highly doubts there is a day doctor.
Honestly Creature is still probably a better kill than Paopan.

Mac has not ended the day voting a mafia at all this game outside of TSP red check day.
Every other player Mac has ended on has flipped Town/3P.

Wilgy was also the first to vote TSP and Neeko thinks it was before Flacon even claimed the red was on TSP.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:21 pm Mac has so far been the only mafia flipped that has pushed Wilgy.
But most of Wilgy's wagonis still alive: sabie12, dyachei, falcon45ca, Paopan, LinearPoint, Creature, alexa

Neeko accidetnly posted before she could finish the thought.
It does look like Mafia were trying to avoid lynching Wilgy D1 and D2 Wigly had those people on them for the top 8 vote.
Of those who were in the top 8 Mac stopped voting Wilgy, but TSP did start to vote Wilgy.
So Wilgy is probably Town from having Mac and TSP pushing them.

Mac has so far been the only mafia flipped that has pushed Wilgy.
But most of Wilgy's wagonis still alive: sabie12, dyachei, falcon45ca, Paopan, LinearPoint, Creature, alexa

While yes, OK. Neeko will admit its possible to misclear people and be wrong. it's better to misclear 1 Mafia and PoE the last 2 than to PoE literally everyone.
If a Mafia gets miscleared or something it'll probably out them eventualyl just from the fact no one is killing them.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:13 pm Does Creature feel town to anyone at this moment?
I think I've been so flipfloppy that it'd be hard for me to replicate this as wolf. Usually I'm a lot less paranoid and wishy-washy as wolf.

But the way you say this makes it sound like you're being intentional with it if you know that flipfloppy is hard to do as Mafia.
Also not really, Mafia have to change reads a lot to account for new information and scum flipping.
It's kind of a trait that is universal and can be of any alignment. You just seem to be doing it in a more deliberate way to avoid clearing as many people as you can from your PoE.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:13 pm Does Creature feel town to anyone at this moment?

Don't you mean at this present?
Also not really.

Neeko has been suspecting Mafia may just be saving their soup kill to ensure there is no massclaim.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:07 pm Best strategy for wolves atp is to claim they have a confirmable role because soup kill will always make claiming it very risky and so wolves can get away with it for as long as they need.

what is atp? At this point?

Honestly Neeko still thinks creature is more likely to be scum. He really seems to be doing his best to keep options for mislynching open and has suspicion on pretty much everyone.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:01 pm Reading @Paopan would be easier if they could tell us who they have targeted each night.

Honestly Neeko understands why they may not since that could give up too much info such as if they have limited uses or a JOAT. Both of which help mafia in souping.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:58 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:57 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:51 pm The world where all of alexa, Sloonei and I are town seem pretty complicated. Who could be wolf?

DrWilgy and Paopan?

dyachei who decided to shoot her teammate D1 when low in numbers?

ilario who decided to shoot his teammate (or claim hollowkatt's vig) and claim 3p as wolf?

sabie12 who decided to claim night vigilante D2 and shot Ender of all people?

Or perhaps crazier territories like falcon claiming red check on a wolf mate and green check on town or Belzy's and Porscha's wolf roles being exactly toxic masons?
Oh wait I entirely forgot Justplayingitcool existed.
I forget I exist too

Honestly Neeko has a hard time reading your name in thread so it gets blanked out frequently.
Something abotu the color and thin letters really hurts her dyslexia.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:56 pm I think this is bringing me into closing on DrWilgy/Paopan/sabie12

I just hate the implication of possibly lynching a town vigilante here.

Boy you would hate to be introduced to a role called Serial Killer.

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:53 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:51 pm The world where all of alexa, Sloonei and I are town seem pretty complicated. Who could be wolf?

DrWilgy and Paopan?

dyachei who decided to shoot her teammate D1 when low in numbers?

ilario who decided to shoot his teammate (or claim hollowkatt's vig) and claim 3p as wolf?

sabie12 who decided to claim night vigilante D2 and shot Ender of all people?

Or perhaps crazier territories like falcon claiming red check on a wolf mate and green check on town or Belzy's and Porscha's wolf roles being exactly toxic masons?
If i have to defend myself and Porscha being town at this rate i will jump off a bridge lol

When the PoE gets to the point scum have to consider how to lynch outed Masons lol

Honestly lynching Paopan over Sabie is always the play in this particular scenario.
If Sabie flips Mafia there isn't actually a clear indication that Paopan is also Mafia. Sabie could be a 2-shot vig and couldn't shoot Paopan/could not convince mafia to shoot Paopan so she could claim the shot.
If paopan flips Mafia there may be an argument that a Mafia!Sabie didn't want to vig her target, but even still Mafia!Sabie could just have claimed roleblocked.

It clearly was not meant to be taken personally. Just stop saying it was a personal attack.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:42 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:39 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:34 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:32 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:31 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:26 pm LinearPoint - Dependent on alexa's alignment
how so? Don't really see how protecting a Town or protecting a Mafia are different.
All it would mean if Alexa flips Mafia would be that she lied about being shot by mafia.
imo if alexa flips town you're likely town and if alexa flips wolf you're likely wolf.
Still don't really see why.
It's like saying if Doctor accidentally healed a Mafia being shot by a Vig N1 the Doctor has to be Mafia.
I think your claim comes as pretty convenient to "clear" alexa.
True, but Alexa did claim that she got it at the start of day 2 from what Neeko remembers.
So it should be fairly obvious that she did receive it. Plus there wasn't a Mafia kill the night she said it popped.
People were talking about lynching Alexa because the vest wasn't real and as far as Neeko was concerned it was real and felt the need to clear it up.
If Neeko was wrong and stopped a Vig shot, oh well a Mafia dies today if that is the case and Neeko's fine being shot by Sabie since her usefulness has pretty much dried out.
This just feels agenday to say that Neeko cannot be Town if Alexa is Mafia. You've also been switching reads around a lot pretty much nor hard town reading many people and it's looking like you're trying to keep open as many possibilities for mislynches as possible.
Okay, whatever. I guess you will only be added to the POE if alexa flips mafia here which atp I doubt it.

That's fair. If Neeko protected Mafia oops, but she seems pretty much just confirmed Town so yeah.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:34 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:32 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:31 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:26 pm LinearPoint - Dependent on alexa's alignment
how so? Don't really see how protecting a Town or protecting a Mafia are different.
All it would mean if Alexa flips Mafia would be that she lied about being shot by mafia.
imo if alexa flips town you're likely town and if alexa flips wolf you're likely wolf.
Still don't really see why.
It's like saying if Doctor accidentally healed a Mafia being shot by a Vig N1 the Doctor has to be Mafia.
I think your claim comes as pretty convenient to "clear" alexa.

True, but Alexa did claim that she got it at the start of day 2 from what Neeko remembers.
So it should be fairly obvious that she did receive it. Plus there wasn't a Mafia kill the night she said it popped.
People were talking about lynching Alexa because the vest wasn't real and as far as Neeko was concerned it was real and felt the need to clear it up.
If Neeko was wrong and stopped a Vig shot, oh well a Mafia dies today if that is the case and Neeko's fine being shot by Sabie since her usefulness has pretty much dried out.
This just feels agenday to say that Neeko cannot be Town if Alexa is Mafia. You've also been switching reads around a lot pretty much nor hard town reading many people and it's looking like you're trying to keep open as many possibilities for mislynches as possible.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:31 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:26 pm LinearPoint - Dependent on alexa's alignment
how so? Don't really see how protecting a Town or protecting a Mafia are different.
All it would mean if Alexa flips Mafia would be that she lied about being shot by mafia.
imo if alexa flips town you're likely town and if alexa flips wolf you're likely wolf.

Still don't really see why.
It's like saying if Doctor accidentally healed a Mafia being shot by a Vig N1 the Doctor has to be Mafia.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:26 pm LinearPoint - Dependent on alexa's alignment

how so? Don't really see how protecting a Town or protecting a Mafia are different.
All it would mean if Alexa flips Mafia would be that she lied about being shot by mafia.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:27 pm I'm hoping someone puts all the pieces together and comes to the right conclusion on their own as to what's really going on here.

Can you help Neeko understand? Because she doesn't see what you're talking about with "what's really going on"

So Sabie said they would shoot Paopan if the group shot Mac, and Sabie then decided not to shoot Paopan?
Sorry, but if Paopan and Sabie are a team, why would she even say that in the first place knowing she wouldn't be shooting her teammate?

Belzy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:05 pm People really have to trust me Alaxa is town, we together wanted Mac dead, and Sabie was forced to join us

Well that makes Neeko a bit more confident. Was starting to worry she stopped a Vig from killing Alexa from what Ilario was saying.
Honestly ilario may just be misguided in their thought that Alexa claimed the Mafia shot her when shooting ilario since ilario's commute it not guaranteed that he was shot.

Neeko still feels like Sabie is only Mafia if they are claiming Mafia kill shots and lying about being a vigilante.
They are still our only night vig claim. So pretty lock town.
Mafia probably wouldn't get 2 Mafia into final 8 so Wilgy may be clear from that.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:56 pm Can anyone remind me of all 8 in the D2 lynch pool? Who's still alive and kicking from that group?

Wilgy and Sabie that's all
TSP flipped Mafia the rest Town

ilario is only really not pointless if his poisons only hit town, then he's a surefire lynch as it's rather obvious he's lying about his wincon at that point.
But no point in even really talking about him until that point in time.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:34 pm I don't remember if the Scotty shot was claimed

No one did, but MR very clearly did with their flip.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:25 pm Can someone remind me who was responsible for each Day 1 vig shot?

KZA - Sean
Marmot - Dya
Scotty - MR
Bo - C4
Alison - Alexa

sabie12 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 2:15 pm In response to LPs huge post alexa talked about the 3p thing last night in the vig chat prior to the MR flip and knowing she was posioned. How did you come up with the possible roles they had?

Because Neeko read HK's role's wincon in Fallout Mafia. There was 2 roles that shared that wincon and 1 role was HK's flip.
Neeko was curious what HK's wincon was since it wasn't flipped with HK so she went and looked and found Vortis.

Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:54 pm Could Paopan and LinearPoint be direct counterclaims to each other?

Well only 1 protective role is dead so having 2 makes some sense.
The problem is Neeko is being convinced by paopan saying Mafia cannot have a Protective role as a sign that Paopan is a Mafia Protective role.
Still Neeko is certain Paopan is a protective role, but again this defense is the same that Paopan used in Fortune of Lies where Paopan was a Mafia using the defense that they are a confirmed Lie Detector and could not possibly be Mafia.
Also asking to be lynched was something Paopan did in that game so Paopan doing the same here is starting to look like a carbon copy of their play that game.

Only problem is, Mafia obviously chose players with mac's flip and unless Paopan is Mafia captain no one would choose Paopan.

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:08 am I’m 3p, I’m hks partner. We have two wincons. First wincon is kill two wolves. If we kill two wolves, we achieve our wincon, get removed from the game and game continues as it normally would. Second wincon: we survive all the way to the end (just one of us is fine) and we win with whoever is alive. So yeah, we can win by winning with town and eliminating all the wolves. So there’s heavy incentive for us to townside which is why we have. I used hks day vig on dizzy so we already got 1 of our kills. If Alexa is mafia then I get my second and I leave the game if she flips mafia.

As for my abilities, everything lp outed today is….correct. So correct that I wonder if it’s coming from tmi. They perfectly guessed my characters name and some of their abilities. Which are: twice a game I can make myself untargetable to any night actions. I think the night alexa claimed her vest to be popped was the night wolves tried to kill me. That day before eod, I made a post saying tsp was probably a wolf and mac even noticed it and commented on it. I killed dizzy that day. I was pushing mac. And fossed alexa. I’ve been n1d 3 of my last games in a row (excluding didney world). Im a hot commodity for wolves to nk, so yes I do strongly believe wolves had a lot of reason to want me dead.

Start of today Alexa has a sudden epiphany that 3p isn’t eliminated. My guess is she didn’t discuss this in the chat with belzy and pao? Wanna know why? Probably because she didn’t know until sod because she used her rc on me. Why would town alexa rc me if she’s convinced I’m town? Or belzy on d2? It’s because she’s wolf and is trying to rc people mafia can’t push to get misyeeted.

And yeah I know what y’all are gonna say 3p is bad and shouldn’t be trusted, but if I was an evil aligned 3p I have no reason to play this way. I wasn’t being sussed by anyone, I can just keep living off the towncred from dizzy and achieve my wincon if it was an evil one. I wouldn’t invest this much into solving when I’m already in a good spot. So why would I as 3p care so much about townsiding? Because I’m a petty ass bitch and I think wolves chose players so I wanna bury the entire team for not choosing me lol, that’s pmuch it.

OK, good to know Neeko wasn't wrong.
For the record Neeko was pretty sure Vortis was anti-Town since Fallout Mafia their wincon was to kill all of Town or all of Mafia with less than 20% of the surviving faction remaining and they won alone.
If you're not lying though and correct about Alexa then you will leave at the end of the day though and wont be an issue.
Neeko did think it was strange that HK never used his dayvig and thought Gullio might have been right about a 3rd party faction team, but Neeko thought that Scotty was shot by HK since that shot was unclaimed and since Fallout Mafia only had 1 slaver she figured he was the only one.
When MR died and flipped dayvig and Alexa also got poisoned she realized that one of ilario and Dya must have taken credit for HK's dayvig and wasn't sure which so she posted what she found when trying to figure out HK's win condition and left it at that until ilario mentioned suspecting Alexa which made ilario poisoning Alexa make sense. Neeko didn't feel like outing ilario immediately though since if Neeko was right and both HK and Ilario had the same win condition as in Fallout Mafia ilario would not be a threat until 1 Mafia remained and with Vortis only having poison even if Vortis poisoned Neeko she could still relay the information about ilario's wincon that she found.
Of course Nanook seems to have changed the wincon to kill 2 Mafia which with just HK made no sense since 2 vigilante shots is a hard wincon, but if ilario also had 2 poisons then that makes some sense.

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:56 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:54 am
ilario wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:47 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:45 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:32 am
Porscha wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:30 am I thought this too but then I also feel like what's the point of a mafia publicly trying to out roles when they could keep that info to themselves while having town feel more relaxed to have a more surprise soup? it almost read as town as much as I hated it
Because it makes us all say "oh, alexa is the town role clop, let's clear her and move on with the game."
she was already pocketing me and belzy early what's the point
Let’s say she’s mafia.
Okay let’s say she didn’t out it.
Suddenly in the night you both get mysterious soup killed meanwhile she’s still alive. People are gonna wonder why the outed role cop is alive but you both died.

That’s no longer a problem now that ur role is outed.
thank you for the perspective I see your skepticism and I'm not beyond seeing alexa as a deep wolf but if she's maf then did she lie about getting shot n2? and what about LP giving her vest?
Yea I think she lied to look clear. Lp giving her a vest I think is true regardless of their alignment.

So basically Mafia got roleblocked while killing or hit who Paopan protected and Alexa just claimed the vest got shot? That is possible though Mafia wouldn’t know how their shot was stopped and with vests telling the person who got shot Mafia risking claiming they got shot would basically just tell whoever them shot they are Mafia. Seems a bit reckless.

Also not quoting it, but since you asked. Neeko read Fallout Mafia setup when HK flipped. Though she dismissed the possibility of Vortis being in the game until there was a poison.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:39 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:48 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:47 pm imo I'd narrow it down to

Belzy
DrWilgy
Phil and Gloria
Porscha
Sloonei

Hopefully four wolves here
Belzy and Porscha would be always together so the team would have to be Belzy + Porscha + 2 of {DrWilgy, Phil and Gloria, Sloonei} + TonyStarkPrime (outed)
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:02 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:55 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:47 pm imo I'd narrow it down to

Belzy
DrWilgy
Phil and Gloria
Porscha
Sloonei

Hopefully four wolves here
if belzy/porscha are wolves then typing themselves together day 1 is extremely dumb
Whatever

Then DrWilgy + Phil and Gloria + Sloonei + someone I'm misclearing (maybe Paopan? Or one of dyachei/ilario?)?
Creature's initial POE pool included Belzy and Porscha and excluded names like Sabie, Paopan, and JPIC. When he was met with resistance on the Belzy/Porscha suspicion, he pivoted to "maybe paopan" or "one of dyachei/ilario". I am curious about this whole development.

Why were Belzy and Porscha less clear than Paopan? Why is sabie's claim accepted as town? How did JPIC become cleared?

Was that before or after Alexa outed them as Masons?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 11:19 pm Why did I start my ISO exercise with Creature and Mac?

Because you hate yourself?

Yeah but Dr. Wilgy died.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:24 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:22 pm In a town!Paopan world, is it better for them to claim and get soup killed while we get to lynch someone else today rather than just get lynched today?
This argument can be expanded to every player who has not yet claimed.

Which only 5 people have claimed partial role info at least.

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:18 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:16 pm
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:04 pm Legit derp clear?

[ ] Yes
[ ] No
She’s already dead so does it matter?
I was referring to Paopan

Paopan didn’t derp clear though?
TSP wasn’t a goon of Neeko read that role correctly.

Creature wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:04 pm Legit derp clear?

[ ] Yes
[ ] No

She’s already dead so does it matter?

Or guess if votes were locked in and could not be changed then that wouldn't be possible.

OK, did Sabie or Alexa try to push anyone else before the hydra was brought up to be shot?

Belzy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:13 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:06 pm
alexa wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:01 pm ok me/sabie/belzy killed mac with our event prize vig

also omg can anyone heal me .-.
3 people got vig and all shot the same person?
We had 1 vig shot. We needed 2 votes on the same player. We all 3 voted for Phil and Gloria. Belzy, alexa, sabie, in that order.

OK, that makes a lot more sense.
So y'all could see each others votes or all independently voted to shoot the hydra?

So 5 people are claiming to have shot Mac and not retracting?

Who even won the poem? No one claimed to have won right?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:30 pm Did HK ever say why he claimed? Always thought it was weird

HK said his goal was to vig 2 Mafia,
Which is a blatant lie given he had only 2 vig shots.

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