The Syndicate

Scotty wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:20 pm GG to the winners! Ilario is the town’s mvp for killing off alexa.

I had nothing to do with this town win, but I’ll take it. Thanks for the game nook- it was fun trying to figure out the hullabaloo in nonspoiled spec chat. But damn you people talk too much

The 3Ps really pulled it out for town.
Town killed like 3 of the 7 Mafia.
The vigilantes really preferred shooting town lol.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:30 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Sun Feb 13, 2022 5:28 pm Honestly pretending not to know Dya and Sabie was lovers was kind of hard.
But it messed us up so much because we could no longer push Sabie or kill Sabie.

Yeah the way dya reacted when I told them I thought you were mafia pretty much gave it away but I couldn't say anything without getting myself killed.

Honestly you could have just sacrificed yourself and said you were tragic lovers with Dya.

Honestly pretending not to know Dya and Sabie was lovers was kind of hard.
But it messed us up so much because we could no longer push Sabie or kill Sabie.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 1:04 am Alexa Alison dizzy mac creature and a sixth, probably like NAA or Guillo or Urist

This is 3/5

Perhaps TSP was really mafia captain

Nah a true captain would just have said his wolf team he would have picked.
Create maximum paranoia.

Honestly though Neeko doesn't have much of a defense other than protecting Mafia Bulletproof is stupid as a Mafia protective.
And a Mafia Protective already flipped.
But like it's pretty likely they didn't choose roles, so that's not much of a defense.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:45 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:31 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:30 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:02 pm i think the paranoia sabie's been having in the btsc is pretty natural? And the way she's treated now outed wolves. I'd be shocked if sabie is a wolf

This is really concerning me.

Or not?

Is the sabie Alexa fight a good look on Sabie?

I think alexa's plan was to convince me to shoot paopan and then try to get me mischopped for shooting town. I expressed a distrust of alexa and didn't want to go through with that. Now my skepticism has proven to be valid.

Don't think she needed to convince you to shoot Town. You already did twice lol.

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:34 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:33 pm Also wouldn't surprise me if one wolf was offwagon

Please let it be LP

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:13 pm Still wishing we can just hit wolf today so I can better study for the next week which will have like three exams.

Jokes on you Neeko doesn't need to hit wolf with today's lynch to have extra time.

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:03 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:59 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:18 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:09 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine

[VOTE: BoKnows] aubergine

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

This really made me sad...

I am iso-ing Sabie and came across this.

Alison, Seanzie and nutella are still the kills I most mourn about. At least Alison was killed by wolf.

Sig shooting Nutella was sad too.

Seanzie his lynch... sadly all wagons were town.

Seanzie shouldn't have died but Town followed TSP.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:59 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:18 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:09 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine

[VOTE: BoKnows] aubergine

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

This really made me sad...

I am iso-ing Sabie and came across this.

Alison, Seanzie and nutella are still the kills I most mourn about. At least Alison was killed by wolf.

Honestly though reading back that was actually kind of funny with in the context of NAA's role with NAA screaming how Alison is Mafia and not to shoot or lynch her and Alexa telling him to resend or she shoots when he couldn't.

Belzy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:51 pm

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:18 am

BoKnows wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:09 am [VOTE: dyslexicon] aubergine

[VOTE: BoKnows] aubergine

Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

This really made me sad...

I am iso-ing Sabie and came across this.

Ouch that is really sad in hindsight. Shot Town for voting Mafia.

Creature wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:25 pm If LP is wolf, that's alright, I believe we'll eventually catch the last one. If LP is town that's when we should be worrying.

Honestly just hoping at this point Mafia can't kill 4 tonight with soup.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:31 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:30 pm There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Who do you think are the last two wolves? If you had to choose two names right now.

Sloonie and JPIC make the most sense since Neeko. Sabie and Dya could be Mafia, but a Mafia night Vig doesn't seem like it'd be optimal game balance and Dya using her vig shot to kill mafia also doesn't make sense as Mafia unless we assume Dya is a Mafia Loyal Dayvig. That, however, makes even less sense than Sabie since there was only 7 Maifa, 2 3Ps with the wincon to kill Mafia, and too many vigilantes to count on the hand aligned with Town.
So that basically leaves PoE with just Slonie and JPIC.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:31 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

I see no reason why Alexa and belzy couldn't have done that. I think at the very least alexa's plan was to convince me to shoot town paopan and then fake scum read me off it. She wasn't planning on getting poisoned so I think what she said in the chat and her reads at that time were intentional. She brought up mac first but I had just posted something saying I suspected mac so she knew I did prior to going into the chat. I also had just posted something about being suspicious of her. So I think her bringing up mac was to try to gain my trust. Alexa's claim was that porscha was a toxic mason and porscha seemed "mad" I guess. Idk it seems odd to me that belzy would be so fine with being "outed" and super buddy with alexa after that.

OK, they could have, but pretty sure there were other PoE targets they could have shot and still gotten away with it as a misfire.
You of all people should know that is a doable feat.

There's also really the fact that Mafia cannot soup tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
In fact they cannot soup until they are guaranteed the final 2.
So Mafia can't win by souping tonight if Belzy/Porscha are Mafia.
And if Mafia don't soup tonight Neeko's pretty sure Falcon just wins the game for Town.
So a Belzy/Porscha team is very unlikely and if they are the last two then Town still wins by default.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:22 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:12 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

All three of Alexa, Belzy, and Sabie could not have been mafia. Their private chat needed to be treated as a public space. I was not there, so I do not know exactly what happened. sabie has seemed adamant that Belzy's and alexa's version of events was slightly different from her own.

But also I am mostly just exploring options here. I have said repeatedly that today should be spent re-examining town reads. This is me re-examining the town reads on Belzy and Porscha. Part of my reasoning for doing this is the consideration that you are town. If you're not mafia, then it means we have missed the mark completely. This should concern everyone.

Mafia probably could have had 3 people win the prize. Just given who won the prize that's impossible.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 3:09 pm [VOTE: belzy] aubergine

Let’s let this idea marinate for a little while.

But if you're theory is Alexa and Belzy bussed Mac with a vig shot to confirm Alexa, Belza, and Paopan as Town.
Why would Falcon bussing TSp with a fake cop check and confirming their scumbuddie Creature not also be possible?
Those are basically the same paranoid theory crafting, except Belzy and Alexa had no reason to shoot Mac just so Sabie would think they are Town.

Honestly if you really want to kill Neeko she would at least like to give an item to Creature that might help. Doesn't even really matter if you have Falcon or Sabie shoot Neeko tonight
Just would be a waste to lynch Neeko today if you (Belzy) are so convinced neeko and JPIC are Mafia together.
Even assuming Neeko is Mafia giving the last Mafia a bulletproof or other heal effect at this point is not going to help them.
Neeko also can't give it to self so if you assumede Neeko was Mafia and the other Mafia is lynched Neeko couldn't even use her role to help Mafia if she wanted to.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:58 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:38 am

Belzy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:28 am Final scum has to be Lp qnd Jpic.

We got too many reasons for others to be town. Lp is clearly connected to Alexa, and if you ISO Jpic you will see Jpic always defending scum by wrongly saying they cannot be teamed, and keeps voting for townies, just *trusting* the wrong person on the wrong wagon.

Not really but whatever Neeko doesn't really care anymore since no one else even wants to think logically for two seconds about Neeko's role.
Mafia probably can't win tonight anyways unless there is another rolecop check so not like it matters, but at least it'll be confirmed that Sloonie and JPIC are the Mafia.
There is just not other people that can be Mafia except for Dya or Sabie, but they are both fairly town from their actions even if neither has contributed to the day much.
Only real way we loose this is if Creature throws the end after the other 3 claimed players get souped since Neeko doubts he's been rolecopped.

What illogical things are being said about your role?

Multiple.
For one you said that Neeko saying she gave Alexa a vest was contradictory. Alexa said she got a vest and Neeko gave an item that give an unknown effect. No one else was claiming to have been the one to give her the vest so logically it had to be Neeko's role.
You also gloss over the fact that Neeko wouldn't even have an insensitive to change her claim from vest to random item to even make the contradiction if it weren't true. If Neeko were lying she would just have left it as a 1-shot vest gift or something.
Neeko was intentionally vague at first because she believed Alexa was Town shot by Mafia so making Mafia think Neeko was some kind of armorer or vest giver would have been beneficial since they would be wrong in souping.
The whole trying to make it seem like a contradiction is a huge stretch.

Second off Neeko is still the one of three people that have a protective action the other being c4 and TSP one of which was already Mafia. Paopan was lying about ccing Neeko. It also really doesn't make sense in the theory that Neeko gave a vest item to a bulletproof Mafia and not to like Mac or TSP. TSP's role would already serve the same function in Mafia as Neeko's role.
It also doesn't make sense if you believe that Neeko is lying about her role entirely to try and fake a confirmable role. It would also necessitate that Alexa lie about receiving an item N1 and not get called out when no one flips a role that does that.
The only real connection between Neeko and Alexa is that Alexa lied about the vest being hit and Neeko used a protective action on a bulletproof which is pretty stupid for Mafia.
Furthermore Neeko lying about trying to give an item to Falcon N4 would be a pointless effort since all it does it make Neeko seem more suspicious. She did really just lose count of the day.

Then there is the whole other thing like TSP and Mac trying really hard to lynch Neeko days 1-3. Pretty sure the only Mafia who was against lynching Neeko was Alexa and that was pretty clearly to distance from TSP and Mac who she lynched and vigged that night. Mac even went so far to make up a scum slip Neeko made day 1 and never explained it no matter how much Neeko pressed him.

Hmm. Neeko’s dyslexia gets a lot worse after 2 hours past midnight of programming.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:54 am Honestly the safest* thing is Neeko almost picked Nutella night 1 and if it was a vest Nutella would have lived.

*sadest

Honestly the safest thing is Neeko almost picked Nutella night 1 and if it was a vest Nutella would have lived.

OK nevemind Neeko redid the math and she has to actually try since she miscounted living players.
Still don’t really have the energy or motivation to make the case on Sloonie and JPIC tonight, but PoE says it has to be them, Dya, or Sabie and the last two have reason to not immediately sus them.
Neeko might be OK with being the mislynch that ends the game, but at least she can say she didn’t vig town like (almost) every vigilante. :P

OK. Will put more of an effort in tomorrow after Neeko sleeps and actually looks into the ISOs players more.

Belzy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:28 am Final scum has to be Lp qnd Jpic.

We got too many reasons for others to be town. Lp is clearly connected to Alexa, and if you ISO Jpic you will see Jpic always defending scum by wrongly saying they cannot be teamed, and keeps voting for townies, just *trusting* the wrong person on the wrong wagon.

Not really but whatever Neeko doesn't really care anymore since no one else even wants to think logically for two seconds about Neeko's role.
Mafia probably can't win tonight anyways unless there is another rolecop check so not like it matters, but at least it'll be confirmed that Sloonie and JPIC are the Mafia.
There is just not other people that can be Mafia except for Dya or Sabie, but they are both fairly town from their actions even if neither has contributed to the day much.
Only real way we loose this is if Creature throws the end after the other 3 claimed players get souped since Neeko doubts he's been rolecopped.

It's also not even guarenteed to work since it fails randomly 50% of the time.
If Alexa lied about what she got so be it, Neeko doesn't have a way of verifying what she gave to her other than she claimed the item was a vest.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:44 pm Today:

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:28 pm It might not have been a vest, but it doesn't make sense that Alexa not knowing Neeko's role to claim it was anything other than what it was.

Earlier:

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:35 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:33 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:31 pm

Creature wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:28 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:25 pm As Neeko thinks about it more Alexa getting shot and having a vest popped actually kind of makes sense.
Neeko didn't think vests informed someone they got shot though, but since they do Alexa might be cleared if it wasn't a Vigilante shot.

sabie just claimed her vigilante shot was used on c4 ftr.

Then yeah Alexa had to have been shot by Mafia then.

I think I was the factional NK if it wasn’t c4

No, Neeko knows Alexa had a bulletproof vest so if Alexa got shot by not-Mafia then there's an unclaimed shot somewhere since she said her vest popped.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:41 pm

ilario wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:39 pm Like sure she could have been vested but my point is until I see a town role die that can gives vests there is nothing to verify that claim

OK Neeko thinks she can word this vague enough to not get souped.
Neeko gave Alexa a vest night 1. Neeko didn't realize until now that it gave feedback to the wearer when popped.
So yeah it's pretty much confirmed Alexa got shot last night.

Thste because Alexa claimed it was a vest.
Technically Neeko does not know what she gives out. Only the person receiving it knows. It’s just a protective item and bullletproof vest made perfect sense to Neekoz

It might not have been a vest, but it doesn't make sense that Alexa not knowing Neeko's role to claim it was anything other than what it was.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:17 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:16 pm OK, Neeko is dumb so you can just lynch her.
She can only act on odd nights and thought last night was night 5 not night 4.
So the target choice was just ignored. She wanted to give it to Falcon, but it was the wrong night.

Then you couldn’t have given a vest?

Well yes, but it's not a vest its a [flavor] that gives a random 1-shot effect that is implied to be protective in nature.
Alexa claimed she got a vest, she probably didn't lie since she wouldn't know the item effect was random.

Really thought this game was moving faster, not sure what night 4 Neeko thought happened.

OK, Neeko is dumb so you can just lynch her.
She can only act on odd nights and thought last night was night 5 not night 4.
So the target choice was just ignored. She wanted to give it to Falcon, but it was the wrong night.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 8:03 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:59 pm MR was probably the only one who could have healed Alexa since Neeko gave MR her second item N3. Neeko doesn’t actually know the times she gives out, but they are implied to be one time use protective actions. Neeko gave the third one out last night. But it probably doesn’t matter at this point since there really isn’t a way for town to win if it’s just going to be tunnel Neeko since Alexa was Mafia. Pretty sure it has to be JPIC and Sloonie though.

Any chance you could tell us who received your last item?

Falcon.

MR was probably the only one who could have healed Alexa since Neeko gave MR her second item N3. Neeko doesn’t actually know the times she gives out, but they are implied to be one time use protective actions. Neeko gave the third one out last night. But it probably doesn’t matter at this point since there really isn’t a way for town to win if it’s just going to be tunnel Neeko since Alexa was Mafia. Pretty sure it has to be JPIC and Sloonie though.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 10, 2022 7:09 pm The reason being that LP was very focused on the mafia role cop thing in the beginning. Dizzys role cop role does not offer any info day 1 but alexa made a big deal of knowing nutellas role. Also alexa talked a lot about 3p in the vig chat before the mac kill and then LP had the info about ilario's role. Belzy and alexa were super buddying each other and had that whole weird interaction with me when I said I didn't trust them. They tried to push me to kill paopan who ended up being town.

Neeko may be good at guessing roles, but she doesn’t have any ability to know them. Ilario’s role was very easy to guess and Neeko was also wrong about the Masons being Mafia. If Neeko knew they were Masons then she’d have known pushing them was useless, Alexa also came out to defend them by outing them as Masons so Neeko couldn’t push them likely because Dizzy copped them and the Mafia wanted to soup the Masons.

Neeko will say she did give a vest to Alexa. It’s fine if people doubt that, but it’d be pointless have given it to Alexa if Neeko were Mafia when the item would have been better on TSP or Mac. If people want Neeko can give more information on the role. It’s a bit limiting but all Neeko has really for a defense is that Paopan was the major one cc’ing Neeko as a protective and he obviosoly lied. With only one dead it should be fairly obvious that Neeko isn’t lying about her role and it should be even more obvious that Alexa would never be Neeko’s choice as Mafia.

Neeko does not wish to think about the possibly of having stopped a Vigilante from killing Mafia!Alexa.
It makes her sad.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:57 pm I think lynch Pao -> vig me -> pressure Sloonei tomorrow is the go

Cannot tell if this is some 1000IQ Mafia play, but you wanting to be vigged makes Neeko want you not vigged.

Oh wait nevermind Neeko forgot about the vigilante vote.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:53 pm

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:52 pm There’s other reasons to townread belzy regardless of the mason thing anyway

Yep like last night

What?

They've acted like masons since day 1 so if Mafia planned that they deserve to win lol.

So probably couldn't even be picked.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:39 pm I wonder how role selection would have worked if wolf captain chose that option.

Well Masons are immune to a lot of things like Backuping, Copycatting, Gravedigging, and cults.

Creature wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:35 pm I'm gonna be mad if toxic mason means wolf mason

That'd be funny, but also bastard and betting on that is not going to be productive since no mod would use that.

But a lot of people were switching votes constantly at end of day 2.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:29 pm

Paopan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:29 am Btw.

It was Creature who unvoted TSP when I proposed we should vote TSP to save Guillo

hmmmmmmmmm

Well this is not entirely true. Neeko just went back and looked it over.
Creature unvoted TSP to vote Sig and HK.
Later they unvoted Wilgy to vote Gullio. So it's not accurate to say Creature unvoted TSP to vote Gullio.

It'd make finding the last mafia very hard

WCS is actually that both of them are Mafia here.

Though Paopan wagon seems to solve faster.

Either way it looks like the game is solved regardless of the flips actually just from Wagon dynamics alone.

OK, there are 3 Mafia and the votes are basically tied and dya is not voting.

Mafia splits votes here if both of these are Town in which case Sloonie, JPIC, and Wilgy.
Also probably true if both are Mafia only Creature, Paopan, and 1 other are the Mafia.

Now if one is Town and the other is Mafia
Creature Town BCS has 2 Mafia in paopan and Sloonie.
Paopan Town BCS has all 3 Mafia on it in Creature, JPIC and Wilgy.
Mafia probably wont split their votes with it this close, but Creature being Town makes it seem like Mafia are splitting votes or Dya is Mafia who hasn't voted.

Problem is Paopan's wagon has more uncertainty in the players voting for it.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:09 pm

Belzy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 6:09 pm Now Paopan 6
Creature 4

I really don't know what the wagon changes imply

It implies I'm indecisive.

True especially when the masons are voting opposite each other.