The Syndicate

Batten down the hatches...

sig wrote:So does anyone think the location we pick matters?

No.

But now that I said that, it probably will.

Nachomamma8 wrote:Wiley please check your role PM, if you don't follow the plan I outlined in the QT we are bussing you to kingdom come

That's the spirit. Even calls him "Wiley."

People are accusing one another already?

It's an island. We have rum. Sit back. Relax.

Put your toes in the sand.

Have a drink in your hand.

All you need is a

BEAUTIFUL GIRL.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:Wiley please check your role PM, if you don't follow the plan I outlined in the QT we are bussing you to kingdom come
LOL, this is great.

Wiley made me think of Wily. DrWilgy, is this your secret identity?

Damn dude definitely is a doctor.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 18#p294018

Holy hell it's Snow Dog.

I like mammas.

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Just a little over 24 hours remaining and we've had hardly any on-topic discussion. Let's change that.

Mac, tell me why Epi is bad.
LC, what did you gain from your role analysis?
Everyone else, do you have any thoughts on anyone's alignment so far for even weak reasons/pings? If so, what are they?
Epi is always bad. Even when he's good.

How dare you say such thi-

MacDougall wrote:Oh my fucking lord I am 30.

Just wait until getting out of bed is kicking your ass.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Monkey Island -- Day 1 -- MP Rainbow #1

Boomslang
Golden
Long Con
Macdougall
Nachomamma8
Quin
Scotty
Snow Dog

a2thezebra
Black Rock
DFaraday
DrWilgy
Elohcin
Epignosis
Metalmarsh89
motel room
nijuukyugou
sig
Vompatti

Soneji

Pretty early rainbow, hence players are not ranked within groups (note that they are alphabetical), and I only have slight town and slight mafia reads. I'll distinguish between varying strengths of my reads as the need arises.

Note to self: review the thread and find some more mafia reads, dammit.

Transistor Day 1: MP was bad.

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:MP Rainbow List #1

Slight Town:
AllAlongtheBoardwalk
DrumBeats
Elohcin

Null:
a2thezebra
agleaminranks
DFaraday
DrWilgy
Illyria
JaggedJimmyJay
Matt
Nerolunar
nijuukyugou
reywaS
sig
thellama73

Slight Mafia:
nutella

Currently players are NOT ranked within groups by order of suspicion; rather, they are alphabetical.

Too many nulls. Please post more, nulls! So far, reywaS hasn't posted at all, and DFaraday and sig haven't posted yet during Day 1. Did I miss anyone else? Hope to hear from them soon.

I'm town reading AATB due to his contribution to the discussion last night when I pressured him, though I want more. I wasn't sure what to make of DrumBeats but having caught up now I'm seeing his attempts to engage people with this plan as genuinely town-minded, but it's still a slight lean. Elohcin is active and I'm enjoying it; I also am reading her attempts to engage others so far as genuine, and her frustrations displayed a townie mindset. All minor, but they're all worth town reads nonetheless. I think forming town reads, even very slight at this stage, is just as important as identifying mafia leans, perhaps even more so. So I intend on trying to sort through these as the day progresses and hopefully form some more. Please help me out with that, folks! Show me your townie spark.

I don't know what to think of JJJ just yet; I know he's busier right now and in three games so I'll try not to judge him harshly for lack of supatown, but it's inevitable to hold high expectations for him. I've found his light interrogation of me to be a bit peculiar, and I don't really understand where he's coming from at all this game. I'd like to engage with him about this game in real time because we have zero mindmeld going on right now and that's just not right.

I'm OK with Illyria, nijuu, Nero, and Llama's content so far, but it's not enough to make me feel any way about their alignments just yet. I need more.

a2thezebra, DrWilgy, and Matt are all in a similar category to me right now of WTF/???/Null, because they seem to playing outwardly in a way that could be considered anti-town, but I know better about all of them than to believe that such behavior is alignment indicative. I wish zebra would get her head in the game and address some concerns though, and I'd like to see some more from Wilgy and Matt. I don't know what to make of zebra and Matt's votes being cast already, frankly. I could vote for any of these three, maybe, if they fail to contribute anything else during d1 and I don't have any other even remotely confident mafia reads.

I'm really torn on agleaminranks -- I liked his contributions with respect to The Process, and that he was willing to throw out a few town reads (maybe?), but he needs to elaborate there. In contrast, I think it's easy to throw shade on Elo and DB in light of the "proposal", so those two being his only two people he'd consider a vote for at this time concerns me a bit, but to be fair to him he did express pretty limited intention in doing so (in contrast to one other player). I await more posts from him before committing to a read.

That last point brings me to nutella. I think she's brought awesome knowledge with respect to the theme, but with regards to strictly game-related content she was quick to jump on both Elo and DB for DB's proposal, and I see that as potentially convenient. She said there's possible "nefarious" intent in what DB has said; considering he proposes no current plan of action, and understanding his plan as is since he has elaborated, I don't see any such intent. I would like to hear her elucidate this matter; pending her explanation, she could move back up to null. Otherwise, I'm inclined to believe she may be taking advantage of easy targets, particularly due to the relative strong diction of her wording:

nutella wrote:OK, I'm back from graduating!! and caught up.

Zebra, I have no idea how you got so confused but it's pretty weird that you voted without even looking at the poll time.

Matt's inexplicable naming of Niju as the Process is perplexing and his refusal to explain it is even more so. Matt tends to be zany but I'm keeping an eye on him for this strange behavior.

I think that Drum's alliance proposition is probably a terrible idea and might have nefarious motivations. The Process is just one role/player, so even with its many powers it probably won't be impossible to get rid of, while the Camerata team is a significant threat and more in number for us to take down. I find Drum quite suspicious for the proposal and I also find Elo suspicious for expressing interest in it and then sort of covering her tracks -- although I believe that she wasn't outright agreeing to the plan in the first place but considering it as an option, but it's still kind of surprising that she jumped on it without acknowledging its suspicious nature.

There's still a whole day but it's looking likely I'll want to vote for either Drum or Elo.

linki @ Drum: huh, I don't really understand, you think the mafia can target specific elements? if they can, will we be told a process element has been eliminated? This all seems pretty speculative, and regardless I largely agree with niju that any degree of alliance/trusting the mafia is too risky especially in such a small game.

Aaaand there's a Cell sock account
Note the contrast between "might be nefarious" and "quite suspicious" for DB and "suspicious" for Elo. I sense a disconnect.

Furthermore, it appears to me that she suspects Elo for agreeing with a plan that she doesn't agree with, but I think Elo's train of thought regarding the matter is transparent, at least from where I'm sitting, and nutella even recognizes this to some degree but still finds Elo suspect.

Moreover, the most suspicious statement is nutella's propensity to feel OK with a vote for either Elo or DB at this point in the day phase, especially not having discussed any other reads (zebra, Matt, me, anyone else). I need to hear from nutella about this ASAP.

Romance of the Three Kingdoms Day 1: MP was bad.

Spoiler: show

Star Wars Day 1: MP was bad.

Spoiler: show

Protip: MovingPictures07 is always bad in my games.

Arkham Day 2: MP was good.

Spoiler: show

Watchmen Day 3: MP was good.

Spoiler: show

That was after extensive commentary on every person earlier on.

Looking at other hosts now.

Rocky & Bullwinkle Day 2: MP was good.

Spoiler: show

My impression here is that evil MP makes less nuanced first lists than good MP (Star Wars is the obvious outlier). I haven't found one example of a good MP making a three-colored first list.

His first list here falls into the bad MP tendency.

Nachomamma8 wrote:If I had the chance to vote twice, I'd also vote Epignosis; I liked the post I outlined earlier but his recent play has also had the floating and unengaged problem and is the reason for his fall from grace.

Hello. I'm Epignosis.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Only here between finishing teaching and a meeting, but I wanted to comment on Epi's analysis of my rainbow lists.

Epi, your analysis is intriguing, but it is myopic and fails to make any meaningful inference about my alignment for the following reasons:

1) You do not explain why my alignment would have any impact on my rainbow list behavior. What's the connection? A conclusion that I am bad because I posted my first rainbow with only slight mafia and town tiers is like saying ice cream causes crime because in the summer ice cream sales increase and crime increases. It may be an association but there is no underlying theory detailing a correlation.

You should leave the analogies to Scotty.

I don't have to explain why your alignment would have any impact on how you make your lists. The why exists between your brain and your keyboard, and I'm not privy to what transpires between the two. My whole intention was to see if any correlation could be made, and that's what I found. It is a difference I believe you would not be aware of right now.

MovingPictures07 wrote:2) You neglect the fact that your sample size is skewed by the fact that I roll scum more often than town.

The sample size is going to be small because I stopped at the point in which such lists started to be a thing. There was no point in me going back to games in 2013 or 2014 when nobody posted them.

MovingPictures07 wrote:3) You fail to consider the environment of the thread and whether conditions exist at the times you pulled those rainbow lists that warranted me splitting my reads into further categories.

How do you know what I considered? All I did was pull your first lists from three games when you were good and three games when you were bad. I hardly commented on them.

MovingPictures07 wrote:4) Perhaps most importantly, similarly to 3), you do not consider what stages of the game in terms of "Day ____" those lists are from. That is a much more meaningful indication of how tiered my rainbow lists will be. Note that for every example of a good MP you pulled those rainbows are from Days 2 and 3 after we have had at least one flip and more information by which I can sort my reads. Further, the only outlier is the Star Wars game, and the reason that game is an outlier is due to 3) here. That game's Day 1 was way more chock full of back-and-forths and discussion than this one, especially considering I made my list here with still the rest of today to progress.

I pulled the very first list I found. I wasn't concerned with what Day it was.

The outlier for Star Wars isn't as important to me because I wanted to find a good MP list that lacked nuance like the one you posted here. I could not find one.

MovingPictures07 wrote:So your analysis is bupkis.

Nachomamma8 wrote:I disagree with Epignosis's analysis but I like that it exists and that means maybe Motel Room was the right vote after all!

It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation.

I'm calling five missing votes for Day 1.

I'm trusting my process and voting MovingPictures07.

Nine missing votes. Damn. Way off.

Eight minutes to go.

Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation.
I find your observation somewhat compelling.

Question - is it one you just researched now, or have you been sitting on it waiting for a time it applied?

Did it at work while I was waiting for students to finish a test. I hate rainbow lists, so I wondered if they could be useful in another way- finding out how someone uses them early on from one alignment to the next. I know MP consistently does them early on.

I wanted to see what I could see, and I saw.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm trusting my process and voting MovingPictures07.
Your process is BS and I think you know it.

Is that a formal accusation?

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm trusting my process and voting MovingPictures07.
Your process is BS and I think you know it.
Is that a formal accusation?
No, I think you're town. I just think you're shaking trees to see what falls out. I don't appreciate being the tree though considering how close I came to death yesterday and how I'm low hanging fruit headed into Day 2.

How many trees did I shake?

What fell out?

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation.
I find your observation somewhat compelling.

Question - is it one you just researched now, or have you been sitting on it waiting for a time it applied?
What is compelling about it, even remotely? I don't get it. I cannot fathom anything even remotely compelling about it. I've already debunked it.

I showed things about your previous games. I quoted posts. I did not analyze or evaluate anything beyond giving you my Day 1 vote. What was there to debunk?

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation.
I find your observation somewhat compelling.

Question - is it one you just researched now, or have you been sitting on it waiting for a time it applied?
What is compelling about it, even remotely? I don't get it. I cannot fathom anything even remotely compelling about it. I've already debunked it.
I showed things about your previous games. I quoted posts. I did not analyze or evaluate anything beyond giving you my Day 1 vote. What was there to debunk?
That it literally has any indication of my alignment. You fucking voted me for it and so did others, even Golden finds it "somewhat compelling" and he should know me better. Stop being purposefully obtuse.

How do I know that? I like what I found today. I think you're surprised that I found it. You think I'm good (so you say), but I know my process is BS and I'm being purposefully obtuse? What's the point of that?

MovingPictures07 wrote:Whatever, it's a bullshit pattern,

.

It isn't bullshit, and it isn't really a pattern. It's a tendency.

MovingPictures07 wrote: If you can't see why Epi's observation is absolutely myopic and a waste of time, I don't know what to say. If you all are going to mislynch me, just save me the trouble. I'm done talking about this nonsense.

I can only wonder if you would be this passionate about how much I'm wasting my time if I were discussing someone else.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Economics Mafia. I was town. Made multiple rainbow lists on Day 1.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 64#p142864
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 87#p143187

I don't think you understand what I observed. It isn't that you make rainbows on Day 1.

Golden wrote:I believe you, mp.

Actually, mostly I wanted to test whether I believed epi was genuine. I do. So I have both of you as town reads.

But you shouldn't confuse wrong with meritless. If you extract yourself from being the one accused, I think you would see the need to test.

How did you test this?

Golden wrote:Epi, what do you make of MPs reaction? Or are you not willing to say?

MP gets angry and storms off often when he gets suspected for any reason he feels is stupid, which doesn't mean anything to me. I never know when it's an act.

He says he thinks I'm good, but everything he says about my contributions regarding him indicates that he thinks they are contrived. That I don't understand.

On the one hand, he seems to think I'm just doing this to get a reaction out of him, but if he knows this, then why be pissed and angry and say I'm taking it too far? How far is too far? On the other hand, if I genuinely suspect him, then he should know I'm not going to back down because he calls the observation I raised a waste of his time, bullshit, etc.

Quin wrote:Mad Max is a perfect example of a civ MP making three-tiered lists.

It's either an example or it isn't. The word "perfect" is unnecessary in this sentence. Quin is bad.

Quite right. I don't like commenting on ongoing games, so I didn't even bother to look at that one.

Snow Dog wrote:
Elohcin wrote:I apologize for not being involved. It has been a hell of a week. And it doesn't look like it's slowing down anytime soon. There are some awesome people playing this game and I want to play, but I just don't see the time to do it. I will be asking for a replacement.
That's sad.

MP it looks like you made that new rainbow list to appear more in line with your civ rainbows of yore. I don't know anything about these though as they are a new phenomena to me. Do you update them daily and were the examples Epi showed all day 1 examples?

Not all of the examples were Day 1 examples. They were all the first list he posted in each respective game, that's all.

Time to cull the less actives.

Two people should have died. Only one did.

thellama73 wrote:LeChuck - The infamous ghost pirate. Kills nightly.

The Cannibals (3) - Just want to be left alone on Monkey Island. They kill nightly and win if both other teams are dead (with the exception of Herman Toothrot and the Head of the Navigator, whom they can tolerate.)

There's a blocker, a protector, and the Head of the Navigator, but there's also this:

thellama73 wrote:Night ends in an hour and I am still missing lots of actions.

I'm not interested in MP right now. I want to give him room Day 2 to get his ideas out there (like he ever needed room for that

), but I want to know who missed a kill. That's a team of four and a team of three. One of those teams fell asleep at the wheel.

a2thezebra wrote:

"I think I see llama as evil, fucking mafia which makes me happy."

Black Rock wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:MP's reactions this night make me think he is civ. Otherwise I don't understand his frustration and anger.

His reactions make him neutral to me, since I've seen him react in such ways civ or bad.

I'm going to make this vote. I just have no idea where it will be, but the day is young. The computer will be moving up from the basement soon and that will make mafiaing easier.

One team possibly missed the kill. You have two posts, including the above.

I want to lynch Black Rock.

Quin wrote:I want to lynch Epignosis.

Voted for Black Rock.

Your turn.

sig wrote:I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.

On what basis do you believe both kills were submitted?

Quin wrote:
sig wrote:I think its just as likely one of the roles stopped the second night kill.

@Quin why Epi
You answered your own question. There's a core difference between this game and RoT3K in that while in that game there weren't any protector roles, in this game there are 3 that may have been responsible for a missed NK.

You didn't know that. A number of my roles had secrets, and on top of that, there were dozens of items that offered special abilities, which were also secret.

Quin wrote:Yet he's pushing the inactive route, likely for an easy mislynch.

Is that my master plan now? Gun for MP all of Day 1 and then switch it up Day 2 for- your words- "an easy mislynch."

Pretty rich coming from the guy who voted himself Day 1, preemptively washing his hands of that lynch to find out if votes could be changed or not.

sig wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
sig wrote:I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.
On what basis do you believe both kills were submitted?

It is rather rare for kills not to be submitted isn't it? It also requires very little effort to submit a kill. If only one player could do it I might be able to see that argument, however it is very unlikely a whole team was so inactive that they didn't send in a kill.

Okay Quin I was wondering if you had any other reasoning

thellama73 wrote:Night ends in an hour and I am still missing lots of actions.

The question of how many constitutes "lots" may have no answer. However:

Fact: An hour before the Night ended, the host says he is still missing lots of actions.

Fact: One person got killed when there should have been two.

Fact: Two of those three protective roles are Night actions, which places them within the realm of unsent actions.

Fact: The phase ended at an earlier time than most phases end on this site.

Fact: I have witnessed eight people on two different teams all fail to submit a Night 1 kill.

Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet

There's an inherent bias many people will have. Consider: If you are the blocker or the protector, and one of the kills didn't go through, you will want to believe that you played a part in stopping that kill. You will either suspect or trust the person you targeted, and that's fair. I'm not faulting anyone for playing it that way. However. given confirmation that there were "lots" of missing PMs an hour before the Night ended leads me to believe that the protector and the blocker should both dial back on their respective levels of confidence.

That's assuming either of them did dick last Night.

Scotty wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
There's an inherent bias many people will have. Consider: If you are the blocker or the protector, and one of the kills didn't go through, you will want to believe that you played a part in stopping that kill. You will either suspect or trust the person you targeted, and that's fair. I'm not faulting anyone for playing it that way. However. given confirmation that there were "lots" of missing PMs an hour before the Night ended leads me to believe that the protector and the blocker should both dial back on their respective levels of confidence.

That's assuming either of them did dick last Night.
That being said, do you currently suspect those non-posters that I listed? And if so, how would you go about weeding them out if none come back and post?

I'd lynch any and all of them.

Add motel room to that list.

Snow Dog wrote:Classic Epi!

I just want to say it does me good to see you around here. To see you at all, really. I hope things are going well for you buddy. Missed you a lot.

Quin is either bad or a fool.

Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.

I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?

Boomslang wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
I don't oppose a Black Rock lynch, but I think we have a little more time to hunt before committing to a target. Reading over other people, I think there's a case to be made against Wilgy. Starting out with the bold not-checking-my-role gambit, then devolving almost immediately into fluff. He hasn't had a single post of substance all game, other than a "gut read" of MP as bad and claiming to "frown upon those that miss the vote" despite missing it himself. That continual jokey language of helping townies in "their" plight also seems too cute. I'd really like to see something solid out of him, and soon.

Follow your conscience, pal.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
I'm not particularly opposed, but I already have one other player I'd rather vote for (sig), and there is still plenty of time left in Day 2 and plenty of players to ISO. So I likely won't be joining you, but we'll see.

What do you think of sig?

sig is one of those individuals I always find myself needing more concrete evidence against; a lot of people have a history pegging sig wrongly. Not that it matters much since one team did kill, but I don't think sig would miss a kill. In any event, I already voted, so I'm not the one you need to convince today.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
You could say this (bolded/underlined) about other players though. I'm not inspired.

Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine

[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.] aubergine

Somebody bad voted for Black Rock. Black Rock was a prime candidate to be bussed, but there are two mafia teams. I would bet my left nut someone who voted Black Rock is bad. Maybe even two people. Don't give anybody credit for voting her.

Soneji can get lynched for his move against me. That was lazy.

Quin too because fuck that guy.

If my theory is right, then Black Rock, who was on the pirates team, missed the kill. That means the Cannibals are organized and getting shit done. The Cannibals killed Golden.

Leaving this here for now.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:Epi is civ as fuck
I've never seen him bus a teammate after Day 1, so there's that.

Thank you for that important piece of information.

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