The Syndicate

MacDougall wrote:
Long Con wrote:Hello, I did check my role PM before I came here.

Scotty wrote:Man, I would hate to be on your team if I were bad.
Yeah, Wilgy is already suspicious to me.

DrWilgy wrote:Yeah, I've decided that being blind will be my meme play this game.
Indeed.

Golden wrote:Voted melee island - that's always where the adventure starts. You can't cut right to the third act.
Good point. Same-same.
You are trying too hard.

Anti-intellectualism is a thing in this community too then.

Quin wrote:I self-voted for the sake of figuring out whether they're changeable or not. Votes are not changeable.

Good of you to take on that burden.

@Nacho : You look to rely a lot on an ability to townread and then use PoE, even this early. How much weight do you give to conscious vs unconscious scum moves? I have noticed that you approach people's posts as if you were scum in their shoes and make your read based on if you think they'd consciously post what they did with the proposed scum intent, in my experience this is rare.

Mafia generally don't purposely post as if they are mustache twirling villains even if it comes off that way in someones scumread. Their subconscious guilt is how these slips are made.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
Soneji wrote:@Nacho : You look to rely a lot on an ability to townread and then use PoE, even this early. How much weight do you give to conscious vs unconscious scum moves? I have noticed that you approach people's posts as if you were scum in their shoes and make your read based on if you think they'd consciously post what they did with the proposed scum intent, in my experience this is rare.

Mafia generally don't purposely post as if they are mustache twirling villains even if it comes off that way in someones scumread. Their subconscious guilt is how these slips are made.
I think that most things that mafia post are unconscious, yes, but behind each unconscious post there are typically one of three guiding principles: 1) "I want to survive", 2) "I want to look town", 3) I want to lynch town. So when I say that something seems to lack scum motivation, it's because I don't think that a player would think that it doesn't push towards any one of those goals; when I say that I don't think that Metalmarsh would share his Day 1 goal of not being instantly lynched in thread, I don't think that this would be a conscious decision, I think that it's just something that he would feel uncomfortable doing. My argument for Quin being town isn't that they would sit down and weigh the advantages and disadvantages of self-voting versus not self-voting; it lies more along the lines of thinking that he would put some sort of thought before locking down one of his weapons against town so quickly and no lines of thought really point towards "no, self-vote".

Was there a argument in particular you were referring to when you made this post?

No one argument, you addressed the main two there.

Voting isn't a mafia weapon so much as it is town's. A lot of mafia players view voting as an inconvenience rather than a tool at their disposal and being freed from any pressure to vote is a blessing. Mind you, on the forum I come from I have never played a game where votes weren't changeable, mafia would be even more uncomfortable voting if they couldn't change. That they can't change weakens it's use as a weapon for them as well. The main point in Quin's favor to me is that the host wouldn't state if votes are final, forcing someone to vote to find out. Would have been preferable for him to vote a scumread but as is, hes not high up on potential lynch candidates.

Would you say your suspicion of Long Con stems from a differing view on if chaotic posts like Wilgy's are scummy? I don't see any way to look at Wilgy's post favorably. If he is telling the truth about not looking at his role PM, then he is going against the spirit of the rules and if he did get randomized scum, will not display the subconscious guilt that comes from one knowing they are scum. If he is lying then his motivation can only be to deceive or troll.

[VOTE: ] aubergine

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Nachomamma8 wrote:
Soneji wrote:@Nacho : You look to rely a lot on an ability to townread and then use PoE, even this early. How much weight do you give to conscious vs unconscious scum moves? I have noticed that you approach people's posts as if you were scum in their shoes and make your read based on if you think they'd consciously post what they did with the proposed scum intent, in my experience this is rare.

Mafia generally don't purposely post as if they are mustache twirling villains even if it comes off that way in someones scumread. Their subconscious guilt is how these slips are made.
I think that most things that mafia post are unconscious, yes, but behind each unconscious post there are typically one of three guiding principles: 1) "I want to survive", 2) "I want to look town", 3) I want to lynch town. So when I say that something seems to lack scum motivation, it's because I don't think that a player would think that it doesn't push towards any one of those goals; when I say that I don't think that Metalmarsh would share his Day 1 goal of not being instantly lynched in thread, I don't think that this would be a conscious decision, I think that it's just something that he would feel uncomfortable doing. My argument for Quin being town isn't that they would sit down and weigh the advantages and disadvantages of self-voting versus not self-voting; it lies more along the lines of thinking that he would put some sort of thought before locking down one of his weapons against town so quickly and no lines of thought really point towards "no, self-vote".

Was there a argument in particular you were referring to when you made this post?
No one argument, you addressed the main two there.

Voting isn't a mafia weapon so much as it is town's. A lot of mafia players view voting as an inconvenience rather than a tool at their disposal and being freed from any pressure to vote is a blessing. Mind you, on the forum I come from I have never played a game where votes weren't changeable, mafia would be even more uncomfortable voting if they couldn't change. That they can't change weakens it's use as a weapon for them as well. The main point in Quin's favor to me is that the host wouldn't state if votes are final, forcing someone to vote to find out. Would have been preferable for him to vote a scumread but as is, hes not high up on potential lynch candidates.

Would you say your suspicion of Long Con stems from a differing view on if chaotic posts like Wilgy's are scummy? I don't see any way to look at Wilgy's post favorably. If he is telling the truth about not looking at his role PM, then he is going against the spirit of the rules and if he did get randomized scum, will not display the subconscious guilt that comes from one knowing they are scum. If he is lying then his motivation can only be to deceive or troll.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

This is essentially a policy lynch vote. I don't like it. Give me something else to work with here, Soneji.] aubergine

[VOTE:
This community must have a different definition of what a policy lynch is. On NF it is lynching someone who has proven time and again to offer nothing as a townie, without any posts that game that point to them being scum. Wilgy has already shown a pension for the chaotic this game and that makes him more likely scum than town.

I have posted about everything that has caught my eye so far, nor do I have reason to appeal to you in any manner.] aubergine

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Soneji wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Soneji wrote: No one argument, you addressed the main two there.

Voting isn't a mafia weapon so much as it is town's. A lot of mafia players view voting as an inconvenience rather than a tool at their disposal and being freed from any pressure to vote is a blessing. Mind you, on the forum I come from I have never played a game where votes weren't changeable, mafia would be even more uncomfortable voting if they couldn't change. That they can't change weakens it's use as a weapon for them as well. The main point in Quin's favor to me is that the host wouldn't state if votes are final, forcing someone to vote to find out. Would have been preferable for him to vote a scumread but as is, hes not high up on potential lynch candidates.

Would you say your suspicion of Long Con stems from a differing view on if chaotic posts like Wilgy's are scummy? I don't see any way to look at Wilgy's post favorably. If he is telling the truth about not looking at his role PM, then he is going against the spirit of the rules and if he did get randomized scum, will not display the subconscious guilt that comes from one knowing they are scum. If he is lying then his motivation can only be to deceive or troll.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

This is essentially a policy lynch vote. I don't like it. Give me something else to work with here, Soneji.] aubergine
[VOTE:
This community must have a different definition of what a policy lynch is. On NF it is lynching someone who has proven time and again to offer nothing as a townie, without any posts that game that point to them being scum. Wilgy has already shown a pension for the chaotic this game and that makes him more likely scum than town.

I have posted about everything that has caught my eye so far, nor do I have reason to appeal to you in any manner.] aubergine
[VOTE:

I disagree with your conclusion here. Why is his behavior not town compatible?

You're my sole mafia read, which means you would receive my vote right now if we had changeable votes or the deadline was soon. How is that not a compelling reason to appeal to me?] aubergine

[VOTE:
More likely scum than town=/=not town compatible. You say in your next post that illogical, weird and chaotic generally haven't been signs of scum in your experience and I would agree with two of those three. Weird and/or seemingly illogical posters have gotten mislynched on NF on average and I usually have fought against those lynches. Chaotic however has flipped mafia more often and is a general detriment to the game. As I explained earlier, Wilgy's claim can only be trollish, deceptive or disruptive...nothing townish to find.

I will defend my position on my vote but your post came off as wanting me to put together more reads, which I won't be doing at this time as I have already given my thoughts on everything I intend to. You are used to rainbow reads and frequent town lists here, even in the early game. On NF it isn't all that uncommon for people to have town reads but it is not how I operate, I have no town reads just varying levels of scumreads. I focus mainly on a few people at a time early on while taking note of what others are doing, sometimes you need to wait before launching your attack or else your prey will clamp up before you have a strong case.] aubergine

Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine

Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.] aubergine

[VOTE:
I am quite sure you know I was referring to you analyzing MP' s rainbow lists and not you making one. It is called context.] aubergine

Snow Dog wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.] aubergine
[VOTE:
I am quite sure you know I was referring to you analyzing MP' s rainbow lists and not you making one. It is called context.] aubergine
[VOTE:

I don't know why you call his analysis ridiculous.] aubergine

[VOTE:
It is based on equating lack of nuance in a rainbow list on a d1 with very little in the way of reads as a scum tell for MP, due to some general pattern of MP's rainbow lists having on average less nuance when hes scum, without accounting for the context in which those other rainbow lists were made compared to the ones he has made this game.] aubergine

Epignosis wrote:[VOTE: Somebody bad voted for Black Rock. Black Rock was a prime candidate to be bussed, but there are two mafia teams. I would bet my left nut someone who voted Black Rock is bad. Maybe even two people. Don't give anybody credit for voting her.

Soneji can get lynched for his move against me. That was lazy.

Quin too because fuck that guy.

If my theory is right, then Black Rock, who was on the pirates team, missed the kill. That means the Cannibals are organized and getting shit done. The Cannibals killed Golden.

Leaving this here for now.] aubergine

[VOTE:
Coming from the dude that went after an inactive. It hit scum but it was a blind shot.] aubergine

nijuukyugou wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:[VOTE: This game is like a patient in the ICU. Where is everyone? Where is the baddie hunting?

Seriously folks, why should I even try if the rest of you aren't going to do shit? Honest question because I'm feeling a bit frustrated with this entire day cycle's wasted potential right now.] aubergine
[VOTE:
It's the middle of the day for many of us, dude. You know this. I'm only on because it happens to be a day where my planning is in the afternoon. And it'll be a holiday soon. And it's Day 2. Cool your jets :P

As for your sig review, what pings me more than anything about what he's been saying is his being so resolute that an entire mafia team couldn't have missed its kill last Night. This sort of thing has been happening in several games lately on this site. It would be one thing to offer his counter arguments, but to so staunchly oppose it as a non-possibility? Nah. Looks defensive. Pings real bad.

I still want to knock off inactives/slight inactives. There is no reason except inactivity to vote BR, so that's cool with me. I want to know where Wilgy went. You say zebra has played a detached and gut-read game in the past, but what she's doing right now is just detached without even gut reads. It's just...randomness. Chaotic. It's the same reason I voted Wilgy Day 1 - zebra's behavior is not civ, whatever she's doing.

So I'm good with voting any of those (includes sig, but less so than the inactives), and I need to get back to work. I'm going to mull over it a bit (maybe ten minutes or so) before I make the final call.] aubergine
[VOTE:

Look, I know right now is the middle of the day, I'm referring to all of Day 2. There has been next to no discussion of anyone other than inactives for the past nearly 48 hours, and that's what bothered me, not just the lack of current content. Anyway, I was just venting. Feel free to ignore that nonsense.

Help me out here; you lost me a bit with your thoughts on sig. Why is it that his staunch opposition pings you? Like, walk me through the mindset of why a mafia sig would do that, that's where I'm lost.

She provided gut reads in saying BR and Epi are town and Snow Dog is bad, for example, but yes, they're completely unsubstantiated. The only problem with just lynching everyone who behaves in such a way (your bolded/underlined sentiment) is that just because someone is behaving chaotically does not mean their role card is mafia. It is up to us to make a determination based on the available content. I don't think lynching inactives blindly right now will serve us anything particularly productive; if we happen to hit a member of the mafia, great, but it's essentially flipping a coin.] aubergine
[VOTE:
True about a chaotic player not necessarily pulling a mafia role, but their behavior doesn't help civs. A lynch vote for zebra would not be a blind vote for an inactive - it would be voting for someone who I think is exhibiting non-civ (and I'll just outright say it - mafia-or-indy-chaotic) behavior.

What I'm saying about sig's opposition to the idea is that it sounds defensive of inactive mafia behavior, i.e., steering people away from discussing inactivity as more than a possibility for an entire mafia team because he doesn't want us to look at them. As in, perhaps he is part of an inactive mafia team, and is defending it because oh shit, they all missed their kill chance last night, better cover it up. That's what it looks like when the behavior of late on the site points to the opposite of his stance.

And I think the discussion of inactives needs to happen - personally, I'm tired of seeing it ignored and seeing active players lynched so early and then having a dead game, so I'm happy we're going on that vein this game. Hell, it's encouraging ME to post! (Well, that and I also have more time recently to play than I have in the past couple of games.) Lynch inactives, encourage participation through group force :P

With that, I'll vote zebra today, even if it's for pressure. Gotta finish grading these quizzes, dammit.] aubergine

[VOTE:
This post reminded me that in the mafia championship scrimmage game, sig as a baddie was pretty adamant about it being a certain set-up beyond what he should have been given the info we had at the time. Him denying the likelihood of mafia not sending in their kill is fairly similar. sig pinged me earlier for mainly only going after those who made cases on others, an easy thing for mafia to do, since instead of making genuine reads of behaviors they just claim that others have weak cases and that makes them scum. I looked back through some of his posts at that time but he had contributed more standard reads than I remembered from what I looked at. A more thorough ISO is in order.

More on the way.] aubergine

In order my thoughts on each player. No quotes as doing that from my phone without multiquote is way too annoying and time consuming(please get multiquote):

a2zebra : Missed d1 entirely, only posted smilies up until partway through d2. Gives unsubstantiated scum reads on Quin and Snow dog then continues to only troll those two throughout d2, says Epi and BR are civ late in phase. Has only really harassed Mac this phase.

Zebra has had a very narrow focus this game, without giving anything to backup these reads and trolling/harassing people. His aim seems to be to distract, which as LC noted he wasn't doing d1 when the two main suspects were MP and motel room, both town.

Conclusion : Strong scum lean

Boomslang : Has had solid interactions throughout this game, with well argued cases for Quin, sig, Zebra, Wilgy. The only thing that stands out for me as a possible scum tell is him going after Wilgy over Zebra as well as the timing of that push, the latter he passed over on d1 as well in favor of voting motel room. Zebra was guilty of everything he said Wilgy was to an even higher extent, other than supposed hypocrisy. Boomslang pointed out that Golden had pushed a Zebra lynch but switched to sig and Wilgy for the rest of the day.

Conclusion : Slight scum read, changes to moderate if Zebra flips scum

Dr. Wilgy : Still don't like his post on not reading his role PM, his posts since then have only added to it. He said despite not knowing his role he would help town, yet has contributed nothing. He had the excuse of being on the chopping block in another game on d1 but on n1 he said that he died in that game and could focus on this one.

Conclusion : Strong scum lean

Epi : His ISO link gives me motel room's posts...will get back to him.

Long Con : I am pinged by how LC backed off of Wilgy based on Nacho's continued insistence on Wilgy's actions not being scummy then twisted MP's defense of his motel room vote as him putting all the blame on Nacho. LC was suspicious of MP early on claims of him buddying people but was fine with backing off of Wilgy based on Nacho's arguments when he has no reason to trust that Nacho isn't defending a scummate.

I liked how he went in on Zebra on day 2 though. Doubtful they are on same team.

Conclusion : Middling scum read, goes down to weak if Zebra flips scum

[VOTE: ] aubergine[VOTE:

Strong scum read and affects my reads on both Boomslang and Long Con.

Have to work now, will try to squeeze in more during slow periods.] aubergine

Nachomamma8 wrote:Soneji, have you played with Zebra before? Is this unlike how he plays typically?
How do you think posting smilies and saying that he suspects Quin and Snow Dog for no reason will distract from a Black Rock lynch? Won't it just bring attention to Zebra...?

I have played with him before a few times, though not usually paying super close attention to him. From what I remember he can be generally silly and isn't among the most active scumhunters but I don't recall him being this uncontributive or hostile.

If attention on Zebra brings attention away from BR then yes it can be beneficial, in that it could allow for a third lynch option to win or sacrificing a weaker role for a stronger role, if zebra is just one of the Pirate goons whereas BR was Bob who had an investigation.

a2thezebra wrote:Soneji's reason for voting me is one of the most laughable I've ever seen and if I hadn't already voted I would OMGUS the shit out of him.

I think it would be pretty easy to laugh at anyones reasons when you're used to not giving any at all.

motel room wrote:Speaking of
Soneji wrote:Zebra has had a very narrow focus this game, without giving anything to backup these reads and trolling/harassing people. His aim seems to be to distract, which as LC noted he wasn't doing d1 when the two main suspects were MP and motel room, both town.
How do you know MP was town?

I don't. I had that idea in my head for some reason but yeah, all NK's are janitored on this site which I'm unused to.

Scotty you are aware that there are two scum teams right? Even if I was part of one and killed MP, I wouldn't know if he was town or part of the other scum team. Promoting MP as town wouldn't be in my best interest either, given my suspicion on him d2.

motel room wrote:
Soneji wrote:Scotty you are aware that there are two scum teams right? Even if I was part of one and killed MP, I wouldn't know if he was town or part of the other scum team. Promoting MP as town wouldn't be in my best interest either, given my suspicion on him d2.
Right. But you guys killed DFaraday, cos killing MP matches the team that killed Goldens m.o.

I'm not scum so I haven't killed anyone.

That team has no respect for the unspoken rules of honor that you don't target high tier players early. Might be indicative of then not having any high tiers themselves.

Scotty wrote:
Soneji wrote:Scotty you are aware that there are two scum teams right? Even if I was part of one and killed MP, I wouldn't know if he was town or part of the other scum team. Promoting MP as town wouldn't be in my best interest either, given my suspicion on him d2.
This doesn't have anything to do with my assertion. I'm saying you slipped- that you would be more likely to call Mp town if he was your kill than if he wasnt.

I can see your point but it was really just an honest mistake, given the difference in how NK's are down between my main site and here.

Soneji, who would you have killed if you had to pick someone that was alive day 2?[/QUOTE]
Are you asking that in terms of me being scum or a town vig? The answer to both would be someone off the radar, I don't care to get rid of my main engagement in the thread as scum and I don't mind offing those who give me little to work with as a scumhunter.

Epignosis wrote:I'm going to be blunt. None of your conversations are useful in finding mafia. None.

Get thee behind me Satans.

Thank you very little for failing to answer my question.

But tell me, Epi. What constitutes "useful"? I think it's all useful. It's people interacting with one another.

Epignosis wrote:At this moment, I am uninterested in a lynch of zebra, Snow Dog or Soneji.

Or Vompatti. I'll throw him in there too.

The reasoning used to vote for any of these people is terrible.

That isn't to say I think they are good- I'm only saying damn people. Do better. Like me. [/quote
What is this post?

What made your case on Black rock any more sound than, say, Soneji? If you recall, Soneji did not post on Night 1. Neither did Black rock. You were SO ready to commit a vote to BR that I'm surprised, now that we've caught her, that you wouldn't find similar parallels in at least Soneji. What aren't you telling us, O wise one?

Were I come from, night posting is not a thing so you aren't usually likely to see me post a lot during them. It throws me off my normal mafia rhythm. Night phases are solely for actions on NF and I never forget them.

Will try to get some ISOs done today before Thanksgiving is in full swing.

MacDougall : Like Zebra, posts unsubstantiated reads though isn't quite as hostile in his few engagements/mentions of his few suspects(MP, Epi, Zebra) as Zebra was. Townread sig and motel room, the former off of one of sig's better posts and meta reasoning for motel room. The majority of his posts are him talking about his birthday, being wasted or arguing with Zebra. Not sure why he would engage Zebra the way he did and get himself frustrated given how Zebra has played this far. This set of posts stood out:

MacDougall wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:He had to confide in me in the Chatzy because you were driving him nuts. I was DEFENDING your character.
As a civ it is my job to drive a Mafia player nuts.

MacDougall wrote:I am stepping away. I am getting angry.

Maybe it is Mac that is the mafia player being driven nuts, though I don't think zebra is civ.

Conclusion : Middling scum read

MetalMarsh : Has done good prodding of people throughout the game, being a voice of wisdom at times with sensible questions about if someones suspicions had solid logic behind it. Hasn't really pushed anyone himself. I didn't agree with his logic on Snow Dog's defense of other peoples weak lynch choices as while his own Zebra choice didn't have any more going for it at the time, I don't see a scum motive behind his posts given that motel room flipped town. If he had given even a hint that he was accusing those voting for motel room of being scum it would change things.

motel room : Has been a frontline bruiser since he came back, putting people on the spot for any slip he may see. Haven't been pinged by him for anything yet.

Conclusion : Miniscule scum lean

Long Con wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
Quin wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:Earlier while compiling ISOs, MP accidentally deleted the one he'd done for Wilgy. Well if he was bad one must ask if this an accident. Or was it a way to avoid that analasys? Would MP do this though? Does it border on unfair play?
There is absolutely no way that it was intentional.
Absolutely? Why?
Because there is absolutely no way that MP07 of any alignment would intentionally abuse his power and cheat, especially in such a flagrant fashion. No more discussion on the topic is needed, case closed.

I don't feel like I was buddying Epi.

What was your reasoning behind allowing Nacho to talk you out of a Wilgy vote, considering your suspicion on MP was due to what you considered buddying?

Epignosis wrote:
Long Con wrote:I think it's a weak vote from Vompatti.

Here's my take:

Long Con wrote:If the Pirates killed MP, then the only players in the game that knew MP was Civ (if it's so) are the Cannibals. That's pretty simple to see. The Pirates, for all they knew, killed a Cannibal. The Civs know next to nothing. Vice-versa if the Cannibals killed him.... then the Pirates knew if he's Civ.

I'm not saying that Soneji did know MP was Civ (and is therefore a baddie), but it is a possibility.

Or, he just made a careless assumption that the baddies killed a Civ, and forgot to consider the other option. That's very easy to believe.
I haven't decided which side I believe yet. If it is a slip, then it's such a delicious catch and I would hate to disregard it. On the other hand, I could easily see myself making that careless assumption, so it's hard to bring the hammer down.
My view on that is that Soneji is accustomed to single-mafia games. If you get whacked, then you're good.

Narutoforums is the king of role madness games and I've probably played more games with multiple mafia than a single one. I have hosted three of NF's Favorites games and all three have had three mafia, with distinct mafia faction bonuses.

Scotty wrote:I'm still under the impression that there are pirates in the mix of my shortlist. But I also realize that the cannibals are probably actively hunting for pirates, so I probably need to start looking there so we have less chance to mislynch those on my list. Soneji is the top of my list, as he was with Boom yesterday.

I want to look at LC, MM and of course zebra.

MM, what would you say if i told you I feel like you were buddying Epi the past 2 days?

With Boom in what way? I voted Zebra. Might do so again this phase.

I think it is possible that this is the day the prey exposes itself, just have to wait for the right moment to pounce.

Most sites don't allow posting at night. Night is the period in which the majority of actions are done and having no posting during it allows people to focus solely on what to do with their action. I don't forget to send in actions, I've even once been referred to as "godfather even when not godfather".

If I say how they are likely to expose themselves they won't do it. That is just common sense man.

Scotty wrote:
Soneji wrote:Most sites don't allow posting at night. Night is the period in which the majority of actions are done and having no posting during it allows people to focus solely on what to do with their action. I don't forget to send in actions, I've even once been referred to as "godfather even when not godfather".

If I say how they are likely to expose themselves they won't do it. That is just common sense man.
That's quite the reputation. And it's sating me. Do you personally think the pirates missed a kill on N1, or was BR just happenstance (I know we don't know it was missed, but the small sample size is 1/2. Which isn't the best odds, but it's not terrible

As for your other question: I'm not asking what your bank account number is, I'm simply asking how you think prey is going to expose themselves.

The chance of the n1 faction kill getting roleblocked or stopped by doctor protection is improbable but not impossible. If only Lechuck can send in the kill then the chances of the kill not being sent in increases.

If I say that I am looking for the prey to do x, y or z, they would avoid doing any of those things, throwing away any chance to catch them with it. The only thing to do now is wait. I'll explain what I'm looking for if it comes to pass or near phase end if it never does.

Seems they have gone more the route of letting the activity slow down to a crawl rather than try to take the lead now that most of the top level/most active players are dead. The players I was watching this phase were Long Con and Nacho. As I pointed out in my ISO of Long Con, he backed off of Wilgy due to Nacho's insistence that Wilgy's role PM antics weren't scum indicative. This was odd to me considering LC going after MP for supposed buddying but then allowing someone he has no reason to trust to sway his view on another player, rather than suspecting them of buddying/defending a scummate. That Nacho has fallen off the face of the earth in activity after d1 is a big red flag.

My vote will be on LC or Nacho today.

Long Con wrote:
Soneji wrote:Seems they have gone more the route of letting the activity slow down to a crawl rather than try to take the lead now that most of the top level/most active players are dead. The players I was watching this phase were Long Con and Nacho. As I pointed out in my ISO of Long Con, he backed off of Wilgy due to Nacho's insistence that Wilgy's role PM antics weren't scum indicative. This was odd to me considering LC going after MP for supposed buddying but then allowing someone he has no reason to trust to sway his view on another player, rather than suspecting them of buddying/defending a scummate. That Nacho has fallen off the face of the earth in activity after d1 is a big red flag.

My vote will be on LC or Nacho today.
I don't think it's that odd. I don't have to trust Nacho to believe that his point of view on Wilgy is right. And I don't see any connection at all between my accusation of MP's buddying, and the Wilgy-Nacho situation. I don't automatically accuse people of buddying just for defending a person, or agreeing with them. It takes a lot more.

I haven't contributed much to this game, I know... as I said before, I'm just easing my way back into having Mafia in my life. If you lynch me, you'll lynch a Civ. Let the baddies kill me instead, and it will be closer to a Civ win.

I still don't trust Zebra's antics this game, like posting only in smilies, or being very antagonistic, and the early vote for Snow Dog pings me as well. So, in the interest of not missing my opportunity again, I'll vote zebra now.

*votes a2thezebra*

Not really sold on this but it is appeasing enough.

[VOTE: ] aubergine

a2thezebra wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Long Con wrote:
Soneji wrote:Seems they have gone more the route of letting the activity slow down to a crawl rather than try to take the lead now that most of the top level/most active players are dead. The players I was watching this phase were Long Con and Nacho. As I pointed out in my ISO of Long Con, he backed off of Wilgy due to Nacho's insistence that Wilgy's role PM antics weren't scum indicative. This was odd to me considering LC going after MP for supposed buddying but then allowing someone he has no reason to trust to sway his view on another player, rather than suspecting them of buddying/defending a scummate. That Nacho has fallen off the face of the earth in activity after d1 is a big red flag.

My vote will be on LC or Nacho today.
I don't think it's that odd. I don't have to trust Nacho to believe that his point of view on Wilgy is right. And I don't see any connection at all between my accusation of MP's buddying, and the Wilgy-Nacho situation. I don't automatically accuse people of buddying just for defending a person, or agreeing with them. It takes a lot more.

I haven't contributed much to this game, I know... as I said before, I'm just easing my way back into having Mafia in my life. If you lynch me, you'll lynch a Civ. Let the baddies kill me instead, and it will be closer to a Civ win.

I still don't trust Zebra's antics this game, like posting only in smilies, or being very antagonistic, and the early vote for Snow Dog pings me as well. So, in the interest of not missing my opportunity again, I'll vote zebra now.

*votes a2thezebra*
Not really sold on this but it is appeasing enough.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:
What does that even mean? If you're not sold on it how can it be appeasing?] aubergine

[VOTE:
It means I'm willing to leave him be for now but hes still a top suspect.] aubergine

a2thezebra wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Vompatti wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Vompatti wrote:tfw you'd vote for the mafia but don't want to split the vote further
There's a lot of mafia to choose from.
So is nijyjyuyuguugyyu mafia?
Yeah probably. I was teammates with her in Misfits and her game was similar.
Misfits...

linki - Okay that's even more confusing. If he's a top suspect, why on earth let him be until later? Are you an accelerationist?

Nacho is also a top suspect. We only have one lynch a day.

If only all the scum had but a single neck.

Long Con wrote:No more spreading out votes. I agree with zebra's analysis of Soneji, and he is now one of my suspects.

LC I want you to explain how my choosing to vote Nacho over you is scummy to you. I can certainly see why it could seem scummy to others but to you that reason doesn't apply. It actively works against you.

Long Con wrote:
Soneji wrote:
Long Con wrote:No more spreading out votes. I agree with zebra's analysis of Soneji, and he is now one of my suspects.
LC I want you to explain how my choosing to vote Nacho over you is scummy to you. I can certainly see why it could seem scummy to others but to you that reason doesn't apply. It actively works against you.
Is that what you got from zebra's analysis?
a2thezebra wrote:What does that even mean? If you're not sold on it how can it be appeasing?

a2thezebra wrote:If he's a top suspect, why on earth let him be until later?
My take on it was that you were putting out some weird contradictory stuff about me. That makes it look like a manufactured opinion that's designed to be middle-groundy, but still leave some suspicion on me for later.

I don't see any contradiction. I stated I would vote you or Nacho, I chose Nacho as you responded with what could be a reasonable explanation even if I'm not all that sold on it. Nacho is still MIA.

If there was a double-lynch, you would be my second vote.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Scotty wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
DrWilgy wrote:Y'know what...

I still think mp was bad.
I do too.
To both of you: why.

And how does that help you sort things out right now?
MP gave me a soft baddie read. If he was civ, he would have given me a hard baddie read at the time. He was disingenuous and bad.
I've generally found that people who believe that there is only one possible thing that can happen in any given situation are not right often.

How often are those same people scum in your experience? Townies can certainly tunnel but I've found it is usually scum that like to push certain angles of thought. Zebra's conclusion on MP was based on what he thought MP should be reading him as, in this case as an even stronger scum read...it doesn't really make much sense to come to this conclusion unless the person is thinking that MP was soft scum reading Zebra due to them being scummates. I hope everyone can see the issue here.

With these constant janitor kills, it would be a valid scum tactic to promote certain players as scum, to implicate living players and push the idea that few scum remain.

Nachomamma8 wrote:
Soneji wrote:Seems they have gone more the route of letting the activity slow down to a crawl rather than try to take the lead now that most of the top level/most active players are dead. The players I was watching this phase were Long Con and Nacho. As I pointed out in my ISO of Long Con, he backed off of Wilgy due to Nacho's insistence that Wilgy's role PM antics weren't scum indicative. This was odd to me considering LC going after MP for supposed buddying but then allowing someone he has no reason to trust to sway his view on another player, rather than suspecting them of buddying/defending a scummate. That Nacho has fallen off the face of the earth in activity after d1 is a big red flag.

My vote will be on LC or Nacho today.
Why is me falling off in activity suspicious? Do you generally find it pretty common that people who have the ability to post a lot as mafia post a lot Day 1 and then are completely unable to post later in the game? Why would I struggle posting when I could scumhunt legitimately?

It is completely withib the realm of possibility to me that scum could be very active d1 where there is no info to go by and its easy to forgivably mislynch(which you did) then drop off activity later.

This could be due to any combination of a lack of ability to keep up the charade, not wanting to have to be town's leader to then potentially have to be accountable for mislynches, their scummates being suspects and not wanting to seem suspect themselves by putting attention elsewhere, not wanting to be night killed by the other scum team, etc.

Two mafia games make it easier for mafia to legitimately scumhunt but it still hampers their ability. They still have their own teammates to false read, still have to get some mislynches on townies to win.

Nachomamma8 wrote:Like the argument you gave there was "Long Con thought that buddying was scummy, and so changing his mind on a line of logic presented is scummy". This is a nonsense line of argument unless I'm misunderstanding it pretty horribly.

You are misunderstanding it. The impression I got from Long Con's wording is not that he truly bought into your argument but backed down based on how insistent you were. This says to me that he either didn't feel like going against/engaging you on the matter or backed off due to you being scummates and allowing you room to control the conversation. The latter is something I have taken part in with as scummates with my pal Marco on NF.

I lean towards scummates given his claim of MP buddying, if he was town or opposing mafia I don't see him as willing to concede to you, rather take the opportunity to implicate you.

Scotty : Has in general been very actively scumhunting in a way that comes off as genuine with the way he jumps on questionable posts. The only thing that potentially indicates scum to me right now is him bringing up the lack of discussion on him multiple times. Mafia are more worried about where they stand in the game and can even welcome having some suspicion on them, especially when there are two mafia.

Conclusion : Slight scum lean

Sig : Has had a varied scumhunting game, from just quick reads, to gut reads, NK analysis and OMGUS. His quick reads give me good vibes, don't care for how much he has written on NK analysis as its a very iffy field and he has largely gone after people for their reasoning going after others rather than any more direct scum indicative behavior. His claim that one of n1's NK wasn't missed is reminiscent of his insistence that we were playing a certain setup in the scrimmage game, where he was scum and therefore knew the setup.

Conclusion : Moderate scum read

@sig : I don't do rainbows as I don't do townreads, plus doing it on mobile would be a pain. I can list tiers.

Slight scum lean :

Scotty
MM

Middling scum lean :

Mac
Vompatti
Motel room
Snow Dog

Moderate scum lean:

Wilgy
Sig

Strong scum lean :

LC
Nacho
Zebra

Long Con wrote:Hopefully there's some cross-team baddie kill mojonation going on. RIP guys.

If you had to guess on one of the NK'd players being scum, who would it be?

When it comes to what you posted earlier about me thinking that you, Nacho and Wilgy are all on the same team, I don't find that to be very plausible. Much more likely its just two and I'm favoring it being you and Wilgy at the moment. Nacho could just have been being the type of civ who actively tries to prevent mislynches by heading off certain trains of thought.

[VOTE: ] aubergine[VOTE:

Oh hey look at Wilgy there casually blackmailing Snow Dog.] aubergine

MacDougall wrote:[VOTE: I don't care who gets lynched tbh.] aubergine

[VOTE:
Apathy isn't a good look for you.] aubergine

Scotty, I'm having a hard time seeing eye to eye with you on MM. The theory you have just seems rather implausible, for reasons you yourself stated. Epi could have gone after many people with his reasoning, why go after Black Rock, his supposed scummate? From what I have seen modkills don't really happen here so BR not having much time to play isn't very convincing for why they'd pull this, even if modkills were more common using the "inactives didn't send in their kill" logic to lynch anyone outside their faction would have been the more optimal move. All the BR lynch accomplished for them in that case is getting Epi offed.

MM, to my remembrance, seemed fine with the BR lynch based on personal experience of being part of a mafia team that failed to send in their NK.

DrWilgy wrote:Would you rather my blackmail be non-casual?

You might need to read your role PM for that

Scotty wrote:
Soneji wrote:Scotty, I'm having a hard time seeing eye to eye with you on MM. The theory you have just seems rather implausible, for reasons you yourself stated. Epi could have gone after many people with his reasoning, why go after Black Rock, his supposed scummate? From what I have seen modkills don't really happen here so BR not having much time to play isn't very convincing for why they'd pull this, even if modkills were more common using the "inactives didn't send in their kill" logic to lynch anyone outside their faction would have been the more optimal move. All the BR lynch accomplished for them in that case is getting Epi offed.

MM, to my remembrance, seemed fine with the BR lynch based on personal experience of being part of a mafia team that failed to send in their NK.
Not necessarily- Epi would have accomplished looking supatown. That he got killed is just a side effect of that.

I'm not sure what you mean by the last part tho. Based on your personal experience being bad with him? MM didn't exactly say why he voted for her, he just did because Epi did.

Looking supatown in a two mafia game is asking to get night killed.

I have never been on a mafia team with MM. He mentioned in one post that he had been part of a mafia team that missed a night kill and that that team also had Wilgy, MacDougall and a few others.

I feel like Nacho a bit where my top "town reads" are somewhat against each other.

Scotty wrote:
Soneji wrote:I feel like Nacho a bit where my top "town reads" are somewhat against each other.
Remind me again who your top civ reads are, since unless some bumfuckery happens you're in line to get lynched.

The last read list you posted listed your scum reads, which happened to be every player in the game:
Spoiler: show
Soneji wrote:Scotty : Has in general been very actively scumhunting in a way that comes off as genuine with the way he jumps on questionable posts. The only thing that potentially indicates scum to me right now is him bringing up the lack of discussion on him multiple times. Mafia are more worried about where they stand in the game and can even welcome having some suspicion on them, especially when there are two mafia.

Conclusion : Slight scum lean

Sig : Has had a varied scumhunting game, from just quick reads, to gut reads, NK analysis and OMGUS. His quick reads give me good vibes, don't care for how much he has written on NK analysis as its a very iffy field and he has largely gone after people for their reasoning going after others rather than any more direct scum indicative behavior. His claim that one of n1's NK wasn't missed is reminiscent of his insistence that we were playing a certain setup in the scrimmage game, where he was scum and therefore knew the setup.

Conclusion : Moderate scum read

@sig : I don't do rainbows as I don't do townreads, plus doing it on mobile would be a pain. I can list tiers.

Slight scum lean :

Scotty
MM

Middling scum lean :

Mac
Vompatti
Motel room
Snow Dog

Moderate scum lean:

Wilgy
Sig

Strong scum lean :

LC
Nacho
Zebra
Was beginning to think you didn't have civ reads

I put town reads in quotations as I don't really believe in having town reads. If I did though, it would be you and MM, as I have had very little reason to suspect either of you.

DrWilgy wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:I want to lynch Long Con, and our only chance today is if DrWilgy joins me in forcing a tie (and someone has a wonderful item to use).

But I don't like ties either. This lynch is the worst.
I would like to join you but I don't trust Scotty ;__;

Do I vote Snow Dog, Ji-San or Scotty?

It doesn't matter much. If you're not voting Long Con then the lynch is set in stone on myself.

Well I'm feeling groggy and can go eat a banana. Maybe it will bring good luck.

Please be safe, don't mafia and drive.

In all my years of playing mafia I have never even conceived of playing while driving, no one on NF does it to my knowledge.

How is it that we never got a single item in our faction?

thellama73 wrote:
Soneji wrote:How is it that we never got a single item in our faction?
Metalmarsh didn't choose to give you any, and zebra never bought anything with the pieces of eight she won in the treasure challenge.

Zebra's laziness strikes again.

thellama73 wrote:What most surprised me is that the Cannibals and Pirates never once killed a member of the other team. They always went for civilians. Still, I am pleased at how balanced the game turned out to be. Getting down to three final players, one from each faction, was cool.

Didn't we kill Quin?

I had a weird start to this that I basically worked with instead of trying to backpedal. Team should of won but I suppose the IDGAF attitudes of Mac and Zebra giveth and taketh away.

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